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Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Jamaal Charles Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Of all the topline RB’s that you’ll be selecting from in 2012, Charles is the one that will come with by far, the most questions…or at least the most doubt.

The most frustrating thing about being a Charles owner in 2010 was his usage pattern. Emerging as the most explosive RB in the NFL with a 6.4 YPC…Charles only tallied 230 carries while sharing the role with Thomas Jones who also was the primary inside the 5 threat. Despite the notion that he could have been more frequently utilized, Charles still went for a 1935/8 line. Exit Todd Haley; enter Romeo Crennel. Exit Thomas Jones, enter Peyton Hillis. Will anything change? Will it perhaps change for the worse. An argument could easily be made that Hillis is a better, more effective complimentary talent to Charles than Jones. In the passing game particularly – Jones was close to useless with only 19 receptions that last two seasons. Hillis on the other hand showed himself to be more than capable in this area in 2010. So the workload division could potentially be even more muddled and frustrating than it had been in 2010 when Charles was going off. Add in the fact that Charles is coming off an ACL tear and I find it difficult to believe that any owner would be relying on Charles to be their RB1.

With that said, Charles is a special talent. In 2010, of his 230 rushes…45 (or close to 1 out of every 5) went for 10+ yards. He was perhaps the pre-eminent breakaway threat in the NFL prior to his knee injury. But in FF, can you count on a guy to duplicate a 6.4 YPC coming off an ACL tear. While Charles’ knee injury came on a freak play…it bolstered the notion that Charles’ workload did in fact need managing and the Chiefs were deadset on making sure they had a strong compliment to him. So between Charles and Hillis, I see a complete RBBC situation emerging here. And with Hillis looking to re-establish his NFL street cred after what could only be termed as one of the most bizarre contract pushes in NFL history, I think those people gambling that Charles will return to 2010 form will be disappointed. While he’ll still produce big plays from time to time, what set Charles apart in 2010 was his consistency at producing great situations for his offense on 1st & 10 where he put up the following line; 99/715/1 for a 7.2 YPC.

Matt Cassel is a game managing QB. He was most effective as a counter punch option when the Chiefs established a rushing attack that between Jones/Charles, ran the ball 30+ times/game. With a more diverse and spry compliment in Hillis, the notion that Charles will be used more randomly has merit (for instance on 3rd downs…with Hillis in the fold, Charles. And even if he approaches his 2010 workload, 6.4 YPC’s simply can’t be counted on, no matter what type of talent is being discussed. So IMO, I don’t think his 2012 upside is near was his 2010 production level was.

Prediction: 211 Rushes, 1034 Rushing Yards 4 TD’s; 42 Receptions 338 Receiving Yards, 2 TD’s.

 
Pre-injury Charles was one of the most explosive RBs in NFL history - the guy has a 6.1 YPC average for his career, so it's not like his 6.4 in 2010 was a fluke. I don't see Hillis having any effect on Charles at all, personally; Jamaal was never going to be a 20 carry/game guy regardless. He wasn't going to be getting a ton of goal-line work either, no matter who else is or isn't there. Even if he hadn't blown out his knee last year I wouldn't be projecting more than about 240 carries for the guy, and with the injury, I think he'll see fewer than that (15 / week) particularly to start the year. Dynasty-wise, I'm a buyer, as his talent level is through the roof, but in redrafts this year, someone else can take the risk while I grab Hillis quite a bit later.

200 carries for 1020 yards (5.1 avg), 35 catches for 315, 7 total TDs

 
There is exactly one (former) head coach in the NFL who would give a player like Peyton Jones, I mean Thomas Hillis, carries at the expense of a thoroughbred like Charles. Now that Haley is busy trying to screw with Roethlisberger's head in Pittsburgh I don't see any reason Charles won't put up great numbers again. The injury will be nearly a year old by the time the season starts and Charles is a player who wins games for his team. I do think Hillis will eat into his receptions a bit though -- Hillis is an excellent receiver in space and will get some looks in addition to short yardage stuff. It's also likely that normal regression will see his YPC drop a bit:

250 carries, 1250 yards, 5 TDs; 45 receptions, 410 yards, 2 TDs (~16 ppg, RB 10)

 
Not sure about JC's projections, but I am seriously thinking of grabbing both Charles and Hillis as my RBs and loading up at other positions. After the first 5-6 RBs I am considerably meh about chasing RBs in this year's draft. I'm sure it sounds kind of risky but so is drafting guys like Forte(M Bush), AP(knee/Gerhart), T. Richardson(rookie/CLE), Fred Jackson(Spiller), M. Turner(Rodgers), Gore(Hunter/Jacobs.

 
I'm going to have to turn this into a joint post because, much like the Martin/Blount situation, I think the more valuable RB is being overlooked here. The Chiefs are a team built to run, and run they did with Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles in 2010, splitting 475 carries between just the two of them. In 2011, injuries struck both Hillis and Charles. While Hillis' injury was not season ending, it did linger on throughout the season leading many to label him a quitter, a plodder, a bust, etc. I can see the Shark Pool is not immune to this shortsightedness, with a previous comment referring to him as Peyton Jones. In 2010, Hillis was the 12th most elusive back in the NFL, but he was one of the least in 2011 while dealing with injuries on an imploding Cleveland Browns. He is now fully recovered and reunited with his 2010 offensive coordinator. While Thomas Jones was ineffective as a rusher, he was also a non-factor in the passing game. Hillis has already shown to be an excellent receiving back, as well as a total beast around the goal line. Padding his resume, Hillis is an excellent pass blocker (sorry, I don't know how Charles stacks up there).

Jamaal Charles on the other hand had previously been given the bulk of the receptions while tearing up his half of the rushes at over a 6 ypc clip. Even if his speed is fully recovered, the Chiefs have little reason to saddle him with 20 carries a game or goal line duties. In all likelihood, the Chiefs will lean on Hillis to plug away between the tackles while utilizing Charles as a relatively frequently used change of pace back. But they both should see passes thrown their way.

Hillis 240 carries x 4.5 ypc = 1080 yds 10 TD, 35 rec x 7 ypr = 245 yds 2 TD

Charles 200 carries x 5.0 ypc - 1000 yds 4 TD, 35 rec x 8 ypr = 280 yds 1 TD

*Hillis has more rec TDs due to the chances that he's getting them in the red zone

**I used conservative ypc numbers for both players

Just as a refresher for those who can't look past 2011, here is an article on Hillis, addressing his path to success as well as his 2010 season:

When Brady Quinn was traded from the Browns to the Broncos over a year ago, people were thinking about the new direction for the Browns’ quarterback spot rather than about the fullback the Browns acquired who barely played in 2009.

A year later, Peyton Hillis is one of the better running backs in the league and the cover athlete of Madden 2012. One of the things that makes not just the NFL but all of sports so intriguing is the chance that a player will come out of nowhere to become an icon.

So who exactly is Peyton Hillis? Where did he come from and what makes him so good? To give you some idea, only he and Matt Forte were well-rounded enough to have PFF ratings above +2.0 in running, receiving, and blocking in 2010.

How He Got His Shot

Hillis was drafted in the 7th round of the 2008 draft by the Denver Broncos. He landed in the top fullback spot, and looked like a solid run blocker in his first four games. Injuries to Selvin Young, Andre Hall, and Michael Pittman forced Hillis to move to halfback for a few games. He finished the season with 68 rushing attempts for 343 yards and five touchdowns. That equated to five yards per carry with 3.1 coming after contact, and nine players missed tackles on him.

In his sophomore NFL year, the Broncos brought in Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, pushing Hillis back to the fullback spot. Using fullbacks less often in 2009, Denver only called on Hillis for 84 snaps and in those few opportunities, he didn’t look as impressive as in his first year. 2008’s 6th round pick, Spencer Larsen, converted from linebacker to fullback, and was stealing chances by the end of 2009. Hillis had become expendable.

That offseason, he was packaged with draft picks and shipped to the Browns for Brady Quinn. Cleveland had Lawrence Vickers at fullback, so Hillis was slotted in as the No. 2 halfback behind Jerome Harrison. Harrison was taking over as the full time starter following Jamal Lewis’ retirement and in Week 2 against the Chiefs, he ran the ball 16 times for 33 yards. Despite not practicing all week with a rib injury, Hillis got the start in Week 3 and never looked back.

The Uniqueness of Hillis

The first thing that made Hillis unique was his playing time. From Week 3 to Week 15, he played in over 90% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps. The Browns trusted Hillis in every situation – for good reason – and the only reason he left the field was to rest. In comparison, Arian Foster was in for less than 80% of Houston’s offensive snaps, Adrian Peterson less than 70% for Minnesota, and Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles just 53%.

As a runner, Hillis performed like one of the better players in the league: 270 carries for 1181 yards and 11 touchdowns. He had 4.4 yards per carry, and forced 31 missed tackles and each of those numbers – as well as his +8.8 PFF rating – were above average for starting halfbacks. One of the things we haven’t kept track of at Pro Football Focus is how many times one player leaps over another, but if we did I would guess Hillis would lead the league. His ability to pull off that play makes him that much more intriguing to watch.

As a converted fullback, you would expect Hillis to play well as a blocker. On 121 pass plays, he allowed just four combined pressures. He also graded well on the 55 plays where he served as a run blocker, many of those coming out of formations with Josh Cribbs lined up at quarterback.

The final element to Hillis’ game that made him stand out was his ability to catch out of the backfield. He hauled in nearly 90% of passes thrown his way, fifth best among halfbacks, and his lone drop placed him third in our recent drop percentage article for running backs. His 61 catches, 477 receiving yards, 453 yards after the catch, and 11 forced missed tackles were all in the Top 10.

A Game To Remember

In Week 9, the New England Patriots came to Cleveland and everyone expected them to dominate as they had been doing all season. The Browns, however, came out with a 34-14 victory, thanks in large part to Hillis.

The Browns had 64 offensive snaps, and half of them were plays to Hillis; 29 rushing attempts and three catches. On those 32 plays, he collected 210 yards, two touchdowns and he forced three missed tackles. His +5.8 overall rating that day was the second best single-game rating a running back received in 2010.
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http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/03/14/fantasy-reaction-%E2%80%93-kansas-city-chiefs-sign-peyton-hillis/

The Kansas City Chiefs found their complement (and insurance policy) to Jamaal Charles in the backfield this year, signing Peyton Hillis to a one-year, $3 million dollar deal. For a player who is only 26 years old and one year removed from a 1,600 total yard season, this signing has to be considered as a huge win for the Chiefs. Hillis is arguably the perfect complement to Jamaal Charles.

Both Hillis and Charles are coming off injury plagued seasons, and will be looking to rebound in a big way. Being able to share the load between them should help them both stay fresh and healthy all season. If they’re both anywhere close to their 2010 levels, where they finished first and second overall amongst all running backs in terms of their PFF rating, while being tied for 12th amongst eligible running backs in terms of elusiveness rating, this tandem could easily be the most fearsome combination in the league.

And it’s no surprise that the Chiefs love to run the ball, finishing atop the league in 2010 with 566 attempts, and fifth in 2011 with 487 attempts, despite losing Charles two games into last season with a torn ACL. So with the bruiser, Hillis, on board to join the speedster, Charles, there’s a very good chance that the Chiefs find themselves atop the league in rushing attempts once more this year.

The move puts a serious dent in Jamaal Charles upside, as Hillis is a much better back than Thomas Jones was when he was Charles’ running mate. But with the Chiefs calling run so often (51.7% of the time over the last two seasons), it’s clear that there’s more than enough touches to go around in that backfield.

Fantasy Spin

Peyton Hillis should be able to rebound nicely, landing in arguably one of the most fantasy friendly set-ups in the league for a back with his skill set. With the Chiefs not wanting to overwork Charles, and now not needing to, I’d expect there to be a similar split in the backfield as 2010 between Charles and Thomas Jones. I’m penciling in Hillis for 240 carries for 1013 yards, 35 receptions for 256 yards, and 8 touchdowns, while giving Charles 200 carries for 1149 yards, 40 receptions for 296 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
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Hillis a much better back than Jones? On what planet? I dont care how old TJ was.

 
'RBM said:
Hillis a much better back than Jones? On what planet? I dont care how old TJ was.
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Anyone who watched Chiefs games the last two years(I live 45 min from KC) knows it is pretty easy to be a better back than Jones during that time. He was little more than a carries bandaid for Charles.
 
'jackdubl said:
'RBM said:
Hillis a much better back than Jones? On what planet? I dont care how old TJ was.
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Anyone who watched Chiefs games the last two years(I live 45 min from KC) knows it is pretty easy to be a better back than Jones during that time. He was little more than a carries bandaid for Charles.
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That 2010 version of Jones is what Hillis will most likely look like this year. The guy is a glorified fullback.
 
I'm nowhere near as big a Hillis fan as some (also think he's merely a solid FB or RBBC type player), but he's better than Jones was at the end. Prime Thomas Jones > current Peyton Hillis. 2010 Thomas Jones was closer in agility / speed to Peyton Manning. Guy moved like he was wearing cinderblocks for shoes.

 
I've always found it curious that the entire fantasy community regards JC as a special talent but the Chiefs brain trust has never seemed to. :shrug:

 
Hillis - 260 carries at 4.2 ypc is 1,092 yards. 30 receptions at 7.9 ypr is 237 yards. 9 TDs.

Charles - 180 carries at 4.9 ypc is 882 yards. 45 receptions at 8.8 is 396 yards. 5 TDs.

 
Disclosure: I have a mancrush on Jamaal Charles. I don't know what to do with him this year yet, but this thread is helping me think about some things.

Here's a factoid of interest Hillis: he broke 35 tackles in 2010 but only 4 in 2011. I'm new to looking at tackle data so I don't know what to do with that but found it odd. Not fully healthy and maybe not fully motivated would be my guess, but that's all it is.

Personally I feel that Charles has otherworldly talent in smallish bursts and is an RB1, but when I sit and break it down I have some reservations.

I also feel that Hilis is an above average NFL running back and not a wash up like Thomas Jones as some have said. If I feel that way I have to factor it into my projection for Charles.

 
Dynamic talent but so much of his game is predicated on speed and cuts and shiftiness that I think the team will try not to push him too much earlier and that he won't have his game back for at least half the season. that's not a bad thing. Him at 80% is still very good but I wouldn't expect the gaudy overall production when all is said and done.

Its a mental thing as much as anything at this point. We've all done something similar. Like riding a motorcycle and wiping out. Those first few times you get back on it, you're just not as cavalier in your turns and leans as you were before. Same thing with Charles. He will be cleared physically but until he just goes out and does it in real action for a little bit, he's not going to have that extra little something.

 
'Shutout said:
Dynamic talent but so much of his game is predicated on speed and cuts and shiftiness that I think the team will try not to push him too much earlier and that he won't have his game back for at least half the season. that's not a bad thing. Him at 80% is still very good but I wouldn't expect the gaudy overall production when all is said and done.Its a mental thing as much as anything at this point. We've all done something similar. Like riding a motorcycle and wiping out. Those first few times you get back on it, you're just not as cavalier in your turns and leans as you were before. Same thing with Charles. He will be cleared physically but until he just goes out and does it in real action for a little bit, he's not going to have that extra little something.
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By week one he'll be almost exactly a year removed from the injury. Assuming no setbacks in the next 51 days (woohoo!) he should be more like 99% than 80%.
 
I can't picture taking charles ahead of sproles. They're the same guy to me, except sproles is on a better offense and isn't coming off an injury. Dynamic talent? Check. Ability to take it to the house on any play? Check. Ability to run and catch? Check. Sharing a backfield with two guys who will also get carries? Check. Has performed at a high level for approx. one nfl season? Check. Their situations are almost identical but charles is somehow perceived as the earlier draft choice. Makes no sense to me.

 
'RBM said:
'jackdubl said:
'RBM said:
Hillis a much better back than Jones? On what planet? I dont care how old TJ was.
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Anyone who watched Chiefs games the last two years(I live 45 min from KC) knows it is pretty easy to be a better back than Jones during that time. He was little more than a carries bandaid for Charles.
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That 2010 version of Jones is what Hillis will most likely look like this year. The guy is a glorified fullback.
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How many FB's do this?
 
I love me some JC.

But I literally have ZERO clue of how he will be used, or how he will return from injury.

I'm likely avoiding.... kills me, but too much risk for an early back.

 
'jurb26 said:
'TheFanatic said:
'FF Ninja said:
'RBM said:
That 2010 version of Jones is what Hillis will most likely look like this year. The guy is a glorified fullback.
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:rolleyes:
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Yeah, I'm not seeing that either...
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I'm not a Hillis hater by any means and I certainly thik he's more than a glorified Fb. None the less, he pails in comparison to a healthy Charles in ability.
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Two guys each with a 1 great year. I would disagree that Hillis pails in comparison. Is he as good? Maybe not. But he's a different kind of runner. Charles can't ever hope to do what Hillis can between the tackles. And Hillis can't do what Charles can in space. It all depends on how they are used, but both have done amazing things in a single season. Both were derailed by injuries. I can't say one is heads and shoulders above the other.
 
Charles, at his current ADP, is a player I will not be touching I don't use high draft picks on rb's or WR's coming off ACL tears or other serious injuries. The PHYSICAL healing might take one year, but mentally they play tentatively, and they also tend to favor the more healthy leg which makes them prone to further, different injuries, like hamstrong pulls and turf toes. I think that 1000 yds and 4-5 td's is an overly aggressive projection for charles this year. Hillis will end up being the back to own in KC. Charles will spend most of the year getting his sea legs back under him.

 
'TheFanatic said:
'jurb26 said:
'TheFanatic said:
'FF Ninja said:
'RBM said:
That 2010 version of Jones is what Hillis will most likely look like this year. The guy is a glorified fullback.
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:rolleyes:
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Yeah, I'm not seeing that either...
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I'm not a Hillis hater by any means and I certainly thik he's more than a glorified Fb. None the less, he pails in comparison to a healthy Charles in ability.
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Two guys each with a 1 great year. I would disagree that Hillis pails in comparison. Is he as good? Maybe not. But he's a different kind of runner. Charles can't ever hope to do what Hillis can between the tackles. And Hillis can't do what Charles can in space. It all depends on how they are used, but both have done amazing things in a single season. Both were derailed by injuries. I can't say one is heads and shoulders above the other.
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Jones had over 1200 yards four times. There really was nothing he couldnt do well. Hillis is not half the talent Jones was. Obviously we will have to agree to disagree. Wish I could find a scouting report on Jones. Elite prospect who took a while to find his groove in the big leagues.
 
As a Charles owner, I'd still rather have Hillis.

Charles may clearly be the more dynamic talent when healthy, but Hillis is the guy that is more suited for what the Chiefs want to do. Which is pound and pound the ball to take pressure off Cassel.

 
'rickyg said:
Charles, at his current ADP, is a player I will not be touching I don't use high draft picks on rb's or WR's coming off ACL tears or other serious injuries. The PHYSICAL healing might take one year, but mentally they play tentatively, and they also tend to favor the more healthy leg which makes them prone to further, different injuries, like hamstrong pulls and turf toes. I think that 1000 yds and 4-5 td's is an overly aggressive projection for charles this year. Hillis will end up being the back to own in KC. Charles will spend most of the year getting his sea legs back under him.
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Excellent post. Additionally, from a dynasty perspective, Hillis could re-sign with the Chiefs next year. This would really hurt Charles' career ceiling.
 
'Touchdown There said:
Additionally, from a dynasty perspective, Hillis could re-sign with the Chiefs next year. This would really hurt Charles' career ceiling.
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:no:Charles was RB12 on 190 carries in 2009 and RB4 on 230 carries in 2010 (when Thomas Jones led KC in carries). Charles has never been a workhorse. He is more than good enough to make a big impact with less than half of the team carries if / when he's back to 100%.Even without the knee, anyone expecting him to be among the NFL leaders in carries was likely kidding themselves. If Hillis re-signs in 2013, I expect the workload to be split down the middle moving forward. If Hillis goes elsewhere, someone else will still split the touches with Charles moving forward.Charles is one of the best RBs in the NFL, but he's a 275 touch guy as opposed to having 400 touch potential, regardless of who is or isn't in the KC backfield with him.
 
To be fair, Charles caught 45 passes to just 14 for Thomas Jones (and he caught 40 the year before). Hillis may not be as explosive, but he is one of the best pass catching backs in the NFL, so it would hurt Charles to some extent if Hillis sticks around. It would be optimal for JC to be on a team with a back that does not have any overlapping skills with him.

 
'FF Ninja said:
To be fair, Charles caught 45 passes to just 14 for Thomas Jones (and he caught 40 the year before). Hillis may not be as explosive, but he is one of the best pass catching backs in the NFL, so it would hurt Charles to some extent if Hillis sticks around. It would be optimal for JC to be on a team with a back that does not have any overlapping skills with him.
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it's a nitpick, but I definitely don't see Hillis as among the best; more like a solid outlet type receiver. He's not Marshall Faulk, LeSean McCoy, Rice, Sproles, etc. IMO the Chiefs are going to be much better off getting the ball into Charles' hands on the perimeter in the passing game, provided Charles is healthy.If I had to guess, if Hillis signs in KC long-term after this year, the Chiefs will throw more to the RBs in general than they did in 2010, because both guys are good at that aspect of the game. I wouldn't be surprised to see 40 catches each for Charles and Hillis, again provided Charles at 100% and Hillis re-upping.

Both RBs complement each other really well, IMO, and will help each other quite a bit in terms of freshness / health as long as they're together.

 
He may not be as good after the catch, but I'd bet his hands are probably better than most of those guys (Faulk might have had the best hands ever at the RB position, though).

 
Hillis has great hands, no doubt. From what I've seen he's limited, though, in his ability to get separation on downfield routes, as compared to the elite receiving backs. IMO what makes guys like Faulk, Westbrook, McCoy, Sproles, etc special is the ability to threaten the deep seams either after motioning out or on a wheel route directly out of the backfield.

That is what puts the HUGE pressure on a defense, whereas a Hillis type will just probably catch the swing pass for 7 yards and have a 50% chance to break a tackle to get the first.

IMO both Charles and Hillis fall into the solid level as receivers, with differing strengths, as opposed to either being far ahead of the other.

 
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Yeah, I don't think that happens as much as you think it does. Rice and Sproles have like 1 ypr on Hillis so it's not like there is a huge difference there and Hillis actually has a higher ypr than McCoy. RBs running seam routes don't put huge pressure on the defense because they just don't happen a lot. But even if they did, the guy ran a 4.58 40, so it's not like he's an offensive lineman running downfield. He'll do just fine against LBs.

I agree that Hillis and Charles are both good receivers, but my point here was that Thomas Jones wasn't (at least at that stage). So if Hillis sticks around and earns some targets then that will hurt Charles since those targets were pretty much all his before. Bottom line, I don't want Charles this year with Hillis around, so I sure don't want him next year if Hillis signs a long term deal there.

 
Has anyone actually read something coming from the Chiefs coaching staff/management/players that says Hillis will be subbing in for Charles at the goal line?

Haley is no longer there so any workload patterns used w/ Jones and Charles should IMO be ignored. New OC Brian Daboll was with Miami last year so I watched a few games to see how he broke down carries between Bush (203lbs) and Daniel Thomas (233lbs). Rarely was Bush yanked from the game at the goal line for a guy who had 30lbs on him.

So is the foregone conclusion that Hillis will come in to vulture TDs in goal line situations just an overlooked assumption?

 
That's how they used Hillis in the preseason. Got every carry from the ten on in. But what I noticed is that Charles looked special. I'm buying.

 
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'jackdubl said:
That's how they used Hillis in the preseason. Got every carry from the ten on in. But what I noticed is that Charles looked special. I'm buying.
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1-10-SEA 11(2:53) 25-J.Charles left guard to SEA 9 for 2 yards (99-A.Branch).2-8-SEA 9(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Cassel pass short left to 89-J.Baldwin pushed ob at SEA 4 for 5 yards (39-B.Browner). Seattle challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #2.)3-3-SEA 4(2:06) (Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-74-E.Winston, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 4 - No Play.3-8-SEA 9(2:06) (Shotgun) 7-M.Cassel pass short middle to 22-D.McCluster for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.On this series in the 3rd preseason game, Charles was the exclusive RB (unless you count mccluster) in all these plays. I can understand Hillis being in on 3TE sets where they pound the ball in, but seems like in passing sets even in goal line situations Charles stays in at RB.
 
Hillis is the guy to own here. Charles will not score more than 3 TDs all year. It will be exclusively Hillis inside the 10. Charles is an 8th round fantasy back, going at 2nd round prices.

Charles went by pick 20 in all of my drafts, which is way too steep a price to pay for a glorified version of Javhid Best.

 
I agree that Hillis is the guy to own (would not trade him straight up for JC) but even I have to admit that JC will likely get around 1000 yards rushing and several hundred more receiving. That's better than 8th round. He is more like Tiki Barber-lite while Hillis is Brandon Jacobs-premium, but even that's not a great comparison due to Hillis' grade A hands.

 
'Dought Man said:
Hillis is the guy to own here. Charles will not score more than 3 TDs all year. It will be exclusively Hillis inside the 10. Charles is an 8th round fantasy back, going at 2nd round prices.Charles went by pick 20 in all of my drafts, which is way too steep a price to pay for a glorified version of Javhid Best.
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This is hilarious, since if Jahvid Best were healthy he'd easily be worth a 2nd round pick after he proved it for a year.Oh, and since it makes little to no sense. Much of Best's value lies in his pass-catching value. What Sproles did last year is what Best would be capable of every year. Charles is a totally different player in that most of his value comes from his running between the 20's, and relatively little comes from the passing game, in comparison.
 
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Charles owners cannot be happy at all today that he is listed as a "co-starter" along with Peyton Hillis.

My question is if they are going to get roughly the same amount of touches (remember Charles is coming off a major injury, but is being drafted as if he were 100% healthy) and Hillis gets all the scoring chances, how can Hillis not be the more valuable of the two?

 
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