tone1oc
Footballguy
This is how I imagine the market will be.. The people still holding will be dug in after holding for so long, and people looking to acquire will be wanting him for next to nothing.
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WR Josh Gordon, KC (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Matt Waldman
- Start date
dipandglide
Footballguy
I've been holding. I got offered Eric Decker last week and decided to turn it down. I think its a fair but I'd rather hold onto the upside/age of J Gordon. 28yr old wr3's are replaceable, young wr1's not so replaceable.
foxco
Footballguy
Bought him for Rueben Randle in one league, which was a price I was easily willing to pay.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Exactly this. The owner holding Gordon in most leagues is, after so much drama and value fluctuation, the one who is least risk-averse in that particular league. No reason at all to dump him for pennies now -- nothing has changed for months and nothing will change until TC opens next year -- barring another (+) test or an arrest, of course.
Detroit Revival
Footballguy
Dropped last week in my 10tm 25 roster spots league. I'm picking him up. Seems like there is no consensus on his value. If you can get him cheap, buy!
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Sebowski
Footballguy
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Does anybody know what the process is if/when he is reinstated? Is it probationary again, or is he reinstated w/o any conditions? I don't mean a 3rd strike rule, but rather, is he going to be restricted from drinking? (stupid rule by the way)
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Mary Kay Cabot @MaryKayCabot 19h19 hours ago
#Browns Josh Gordon eligible to apply for reinstatement Feb. 3, a year after indefinitine drug ban announced. Told he's doing 'outstanding'
#Browns Josh Gordon eligible to apply for reinstatement Feb. 3, a year after indefinitine drug ban announced. Told he's doing 'outstanding'
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Timothy Rooney@RooneysRules
@SigmundBloom do you have a guess on where josh Gordon goes in drafts next yea
Sigmund Bloom @SigmundBloom 2h2 hours ago
Sigmund Bloom Retweeted Timothy Rooney
If everything goes smoothly this offseason, i'll recommend 3rd-4th round
@SigmundBloom do you have a guess on where josh Gordon goes in drafts next yea
Sigmund Bloom @SigmundBloom 2h2 hours ago
Sigmund Bloom Retweeted Timothy Rooney
If everything goes smoothly this offseason, i'll recommend 3rd-4th round
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Seems odd to get excited about him at this point without any clue who may be trying to throw him the ball.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Can't be worse than Campbell and Weeden in 2013 when he had 87-1646-9. I hope not anyway
georg013
Footballguy
I have held this young man through all of his transgressions. Gave him a place to stay while the rest of the fantasy world gave up on him. Now he is all grow'd up and ready to take care of his papa. Many have tried to buy low. Many will try to buy high. The true believers will be rewarded for their faith. The doubters and pessimists will look on with envy and hate. Sold all of my 2016 first round draft picks so I could corner the 2017 market. Why? Because I have the best prospect coming out. The return of Josh Gordon. Keep the faith Soulfly. Many of us have been there from the beginning.
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Faust
MVP
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Last offseason I gave up a future 2nd (pick 24 this year) to get him, and have held on to him this whole time. The investment ended up being more than just pick 24 since the FFPC has 20 man rosters, so I was basically at 19 all year while everyone else had that 20th to work with for waivers and whatnot.
Either way, still happy I held on, but I will most certainly be looking to trade him if/when he becomes a hot commodity again. When will that be? When will the right time to sell be? Probably if he is able to get reinstated before the season and puts up a good game or two.
At that point the selling begins. I am not overly optimistic I find a taker anywhere near a "stud" price though. Unfortunately Soulfly isn't in my league.
Either way, still happy I held on, but I will most certainly be looking to trade him if/when he becomes a hot commodity again. When will that be? When will the right time to sell be? Probably if he is able to get reinstated before the season and puts up a good game or two.
At that point the selling begins. I am not overly optimistic I find a taker anywhere near a "stud" price though. Unfortunately Soulfly isn't in my league.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
He is eligible for reinstatement in February.
Been clean from weed for 2+yrs, and has obviously pissed clean for booze since the last time too. Give me ONE reason he wont be instantly reinstated?
He is in phenomenal shape, has been supportive of his team, and has the agent of all agents doing his PR work behind the scenes.
Barring another screw-up, his instant reinstatement is a formality.
Hue + Goff tossing the ball ... Oooo lawd.
Been clean from weed for 2+yrs, and has obviously pissed clean for booze since the last time too. Give me ONE reason he wont be instantly reinstated?
He is in phenomenal shape, has been supportive of his team, and has the agent of all agents doing his PR work behind the scenes.
Barring another screw-up, his instant reinstatement is a formality.
Hue + Goff tossing the ball ... Oooo lawd.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Umm, has anyone said he WON'T be reinstated right away (if he stays clean)?
Also, no idea why you are saying he is in phenomenal shape. Two reasons. One, how do you know? And two, being in shape isn't the same as football shape.
The "Barring another screw up" is being severely minimized in all your pom pom sessions.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
"being in shape isn't the same in being in football shape"
the guy is in shape, dont know how else you want me to put this to you. he will be reinstated in February. He will have 6 months to get into your beloved "football shape" if that makes you any happier.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Im betting he dont get reinstated. Just a hunch
dirtyjay
Footballguy
Does anyone know if he has stayed clean?
We already know the risk of losing his career isnt a reason for him to stop.
I'd imagine if he had failed any tests, we'd know about that.
Unless he fails a test, I don't see how he wouldn't get reinstated (assuming he applies for reinstatement, which I'd guess he will).
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Under the drug/alcohol protocol's, I believe I remember hearing he is testing weekly, or something asinine.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Blackmon didn't get reinstated. We don't have any idea what the criteria are for it. And if Gordon did fail a test, there wouldn't be any reason for the NFL to take action until the current suspension resolves. This book is hardly written.
He's got a ton of talent, no question. He's shows signs of being situation proof with his 2013 season. He's got a coach and presumably a shiny new 1.02 draft pick QB that should feed him the ball on a consistent basis. He has little true competition for the ball. But he's also in a zero tolerance scenario, with a miles-long history of not making the right decisions.
This is the definition of a risk/reward scenario. I'm treating this like I do a trip to Harrah's. I'll spend what I can afford to lose and hope for the best. If I don't hit fine, I can still pay the bills.
We heard a lot of negative reports about Blackmon during his suspension: arrested for marijuana possession (that he pleaded NC to), another DUI in December, and multiple "sightings" and/or rumors of him being seen in bars during his suspension.
When he applied for reinstatement, he had the MJ charge on his record-it's no surprise that he didn't get reinstated.
I haven't heard anything negative with regards to Gordon; when he is able to apply for reinstatement, if he gets denied, we'll probably find out why, but I dont' think that is happening.
He applied, and was denied, and it was BELIEVED to be due to a failed test, although he had pled NC to a MJ charge during his suspension, as well
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am participating in a dynasty mock draft set up by thriftyrocker where Josh Gordon was drafted with the 35th overall pick. In the previous mock Gordon went at pick 66
That is a pretty big swing in draft position. I would feel a lot more comfortable taking a chance on Gordon in round five than I am at the end of round 3 where I think there are still some high quality options.
Projecting a best case scenario where Josh Gordon is reinstated does not have any further issues, becomes the featured WR for the Browns in 2016 and performs well for the next 3-5 years, how much are people expecting him to do in Hue Jacksons offense?
Most of the data for Josh Gordon is from 2013 where the Browns threw the ball 681 times with only 348 rushing attempts. Norv Turner did not have much else to work with besides Gordon and he averaged 11.4 targets per game in his 14 games that season.
The last two seasons of Hue Jackson as the OC
In 2015 the Bengals had 505 passing attempts 467 rushing attempts.
AJ Green was on pace for 144 targets 9 targets per game in 13 games.
In 2014 the Bengals had 503 passing attempts 492 rushing attempts.
AJ Green had 132 targets in 16 games. 8.25 per game. If Dalton did not miss games this may have been slightly higher and his numbers likely better in those games.
If the Browns only throw the ball around 500 times (following recent Bengals offense) and Josh Gordon has 20% to 30% of those targets, this would be a range of 100-125-150. Josh Gordon has a career catch rate of 53.3% this would be [SIZE=11pt]53-67-80 receptions 795-1005-1200 yards 6-7TD[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11pt]Something that concerns me is that Gordon did not play nearly as well in 2014 as he did in 2013 without Norv Turner. His yards per reception fell from being above 16 as a rookie and 2013 to 12.6 and there was no improvement in his catch rate.[/SIZE]
That is a pretty big swing in draft position. I would feel a lot more comfortable taking a chance on Gordon in round five than I am at the end of round 3 where I think there are still some high quality options.
Projecting a best case scenario where Josh Gordon is reinstated does not have any further issues, becomes the featured WR for the Browns in 2016 and performs well for the next 3-5 years, how much are people expecting him to do in Hue Jacksons offense?
Most of the data for Josh Gordon is from 2013 where the Browns threw the ball 681 times with only 348 rushing attempts. Norv Turner did not have much else to work with besides Gordon and he averaged 11.4 targets per game in his 14 games that season.
The last two seasons of Hue Jackson as the OC
In 2015 the Bengals had 505 passing attempts 467 rushing attempts.
AJ Green was on pace for 144 targets 9 targets per game in 13 games.
In 2014 the Bengals had 503 passing attempts 492 rushing attempts.
AJ Green had 132 targets in 16 games. 8.25 per game. If Dalton did not miss games this may have been slightly higher and his numbers likely better in those games.
If the Browns only throw the ball around 500 times (following recent Bengals offense) and Josh Gordon has 20% to 30% of those targets, this would be a range of 100-125-150. Josh Gordon has a career catch rate of 53.3% this would be [SIZE=11pt]53-67-80 receptions 795-1005-1200 yards 6-7TD[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11pt]Something that concerns me is that Gordon did not play nearly as well in 2014 as he did in 2013 without Norv Turner. His yards per reception fell from being above 16 as a rookie and 2013 to 12.6 and there was no improvement in his catch rate.[/SIZE]
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah but we do know that he hasn't had any issues with the law since mid-2014 so unlike Blackmon he at least has been smarter about that so far.
dirtyjay
Footballguy
Agree, so its still a gamble at this point. To be gone a year, it is never a given that a person will be reinstated.
Great talent, not so great noggin.
Chaka
Footballguy
If it is true that his last suspension did come from having a beer on the team plane then I am inclined to side with Gordon on this one. I could be entirely wrong about this but I think he learned his lesson and understands that the NFL is his best opportunity for a life changing payday and is doing everything he can to try and earn that payday. What happens after he gets it is another story.
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DropKick
Footballguy
Bottom line is if you can get him at a bargain or even "reasonable" price, you have a lot of time to let some of these things work themselves out.
My price was a $1. I guess I'll just skip the Tequilla upgrade on my next Margherita and I'm even...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well sure, but anyone who has him at this point has either traded for him and/or has held him for a while. Not many people are going to get Gordon for anything close to a reasonable price, except for maybe leagues with small rosters.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
they know better. Ive had an offer here and there to see how serious I was. Offers that it seem most of you wouldve taken in a heartneat
ghostguy123
Footballguy
SeanTaylor21
Footballguy
I got Kelvin Benjamin and a 2017 3rd for him just two weeks ago.
