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Matt Waldman

Josh Gordon Everything Thread

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6 hours ago, humpback said:

You're talking about the great Chris Hogan and Cordarrelle Patterson? They also brought back Dorsett, signed Thomas and Inman, and drafted a WR in the first round for the first time in over two decades.

It's already been addressed, but giving Gordon that tender really doesn't give us any insight. Even if they only think there's a 1% chance of him playing, it's a no-brainer- if he plays they get a cheap WR, if he doesn't they don't lose anything.

If he plays he's instantly the best receiver on the team.

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5 hours ago, spudgusta said:

Golladay isn't that good.  Josh Gordon is.  If you have space on your bench there isn't a bigger upside play out there.  I've held him in two dynasty leagues since he came into the league.  I've passed many offers for him from owners looking to buy low.  He's a league winner IF he is reinstated.  I wouldn't sell the farm for him, or the barn or the outhouse.  But if he's sitting on the waiver wire.  I'd drop any WR4/5 for him.  He is obviously working hard and if his return was hopeless then Tom Brady wouldn't waste his time.

lol

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3 hours ago, pantherclub said:

lol

I think a lot of the hate of recent news comes from dynasty owners that drafted N'Keal Harry and are butt hurt at the fact that their draft pick is going to plummet to the bottom of the depth chart if/when Gordon comes back.  The league will come around on the weed just like the rest of the United States.  If it is going to look the other way on domestic abuse (Tyreek Hill) then it's dumb stance on weed looks even worse.

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8 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

This is big news. Wow.

I'm not trying to provide big news.  I'm defending the fact that the guy is relevant when people are asking why a guy has a 441 (442) page thread.  If you don't care, then see the door.

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4 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

This is starting (ok, continuing) to sound like a broken record. If, if, if ....

All of fantasy football is if if if.  If Todd Gurley's arthritic knee condition isn't as bad as everyone says... etc. etc.  There are players worth discussing and ones that aren't.  When you have a WR1 potential that you can add for peanuts then that's worth talking about.  

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15 minutes ago, spudgusta said:

The league will come around on the weed just like the rest of the United States.  If it is going to look the other way on domestic abuse (Tyreek Hill) then it's dumb stance on weed looks even worse.

Word. 

Here we have a guy trying to get his life together. Is the NFL aiding his cause by suspending him? I think not. Compassion has nothing to do with anything this organization does. 

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Last year, in the 11 games Josh Gordon played in, Brady averaged 100+ more yards passing per game.  

I think that is worth noting.  He opens the field and gives Brady a player he can get a read on the defense with.

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5 hours ago, spudgusta said:

I'm not trying to provide big news.  I'm defending the fact that the guy is relevant when people are asking why a guy has a 441 (442) page thread.  If you don't care, then see the door.

You probably should have quoted the guy who asked that question then instead of mine. I was simply countering another posters argument that their off season moves somehow show that they are very confident that he is returning this year.

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If you haven’t been able to get away from this train wreck by now, maybe you are the one with an addiction problem?

Edited by Bazinga!

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7 hours ago, spudgusta said:

All of fantasy football is if if if.

I thought you won FF contests by scoring more points than your opponent. Didn't realize "potential" points counted. My bad.

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3 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Last year, in the 11 games Josh Gordon played in, Brady averaged 100+ more yards passing per game.  

I think that is worth noting.  He opens the field and gives Brady a player he can get a read on the defense with.

That is a pretty incredible stat, honestly. 

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28 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

I thought you won FF contests by scoring more points than your opponent. Didn't realize "potential" points counted. My bad.

It's June.  How many points have any of your players scored for you this season?  It's all potential points right now - every last one of them.  If you're in a dynasty league, then every rookie draft pick you make is nothing but potential fantasy points as they have yet to score a single one for you in an NFL game.  This guy has the potential to score as many of those points as some other WRs taken many, many rounds ahead of where he's being taken.

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3 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Last year, in the 11 games Josh Gordon played in, Brady averaged 100+ more yards passing per game.  

I think that is worth noting.  He opens the field and gives Brady a player he can get a read on the defense with.

I am not onboard with this take. Brady had Edelman suspended for four games and Brady himself was hurt with a knee injury later in the year that pretty much coincided with Gordon being out. They also made a concerted effort to bulk up the running game for the playoffs. 

So while you may be right about the numbers, I am not sure that has much to do with Gordon being the reason. 

I think the biggest fantasy loser if Gordon comes back is Dorsett. With limited TE options, I think NE will either play 3 WR a lot or use 2 RBs (so either White and Burkhead at once or maybe White lined up in the slot). 

Overall, other than Edelman getting his usual 8-10 targets, I think the fantasy outlook for other NE receivers is fair to middling. Gordon did ok last year, but overall he had to be considered on the disappointing side for those that hoped for the JG from5 years ago. IIRC, Gordon was a borderline fantasy WR3 when he played. A decent return if people got him off the scrap heap. Not so much if you held him for years or drafted him to start the season. 

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23 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am not onboard with this take. Brady had Edelman suspended for four games and Brady himself was hurt with a knee injury later in the year that pretty much coincided with Gordon being out. They also made a concerted effort to bulk up the running game for the playoffs. 

So while you may be right about the numbers, I am not sure that has much to do with Gordon being the reason. 

I think the biggest fantasy loser if Gordon comes back is Dorsett. With limited TE options, I think NE will either play 3 WR a lot or use 2 RBs (so either White and Burkhead at once or maybe White lined up in the slot). 

Overall, other than Edelman getting his usual 8-10 targets, I think the fantasy outlook for other NE receivers is fair to middling. Gordon did ok last year, but overall he had to be considered on the disappointing side for those that hoped for the JG from5 years ago. IIRC, Gordon was a borderline fantasy WR3 when he played. A decent return if people got him off the scrap heap. Not so much if you held him for years or drafted him to start the season. 

Just noting correlation.  11 games is not too small of a population.  

Personally, I think the Pats are an adjustable polymorphous offense.  IMO The Pats are shifting away from the quick short pass game (Edelmen, White, Dorsett) as the bread and butter with running backs out of the backfield to a more ground and pound (Michel, Harris, Burkhead) and deep over the top style of offense with larger receivers that can block and win contested 50/50 balls (Harry, Gordon, Inman, Thomas). 

But regardless, the offense will swing on matchups.  The Pats can flip mid game between 3 different styles of offense.  That is why it is so hard to stop them.  It is hard to pick the player matchups in each Patriot game, nevermind trying to extrapolate player performance over a season.  But, historically, the receivers, even the exceptional ones, are not going to put up huge consistent fantasy numbers in the Pats offense.  Unless you are Randy Moss.  Or Corey DIllon.  

Edited by Hairy Snowman

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31 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am not onboard with this take.

Sure there were other factors as well - but just a few other stats from last year to get you thinking....

In the 5 games without Gordon, Brady only topped 250 passing yards once.  In the 11 games with Gordon, he did it EVERY game.

In the 5 games without Gordon, Brady's yards per attempt was under 6.5.  In the 11 games with Gordon, his yards per attempt was over 8. 

Not saying it was all Gordon - as you pointed out there were other factors, but lets not discount it totally.  It was a different offense when Gordon was on the field. 

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5 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Just noting correlation.  11 games is not too small of a population.  

Personally, I think the Pats are an adjustable polymorphous offense.  IMO The Pats are shifting away from the quick short pass game as the bread and butter with running backs out of the backfield to a more ground and pound and deep over the top style of offense primarily.  But it is all going to swing on matchups.  The Pats can flip mid game between 3 different styles of offense.  That is why it is so hard to stop them.  It is hard to pick the player matchups in each Patriot game, nevermind trying to extrapolate player performance over a season.  But, historically, the receivers, even the exceptional ones, are not going to put up huge numbers in the Pats offense.  Unless you are Randy Moss.  But this could be a completely different style than we have seen for a few seasons. Remember Corey Dillon? 

I agree that the Pats run an amoeba offense and reconfigure to fit who is on their roster (obviously with great success). Not sure they are moving to more of a deep threat style with less dink and dunk. That may have been true 2-3 years ago when they had Cooks and Hogan. Brady was not as efficient or as accurate last year, and I don't think they had many deep throws. They had some, like you said, when they sucked in the defense to stop the run or when it was third down anyway and Brady just took a deep shot. But they still ran a ton of underneath routes and tosses to White to set up 2nd or 3rd and short.

Even without a true deep threat most years, they usually took their shots to either keep defenses honest or set teams up for when they really needed a big play. If that's what you mean by deep over the top a couple times a game, then sure, I'd go with that. But last year they ran a ton of short routes with an occasionally seam route or deep cross. I was actually surprised at how little they ran Gordon on deeper routes.

Maybe that had to do with Brady's knee issue. Maybe that had to do with limited confidence in the line. But I don't remember a ton of deeper routes, save for the occasional post route by Gronk and once in a great while Dorsett.

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3 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Sure there were other factors as well - but just a few other stats from last year to get you thinking....

In the 5 games without Gordon, Brady only topped 250 passing yards once.  In the 11 games with Gordon, he did it EVERY game.

In the 5 games without Gordon, Brady's yards per attempt was under 6.5.  In the 11 games with Gordon, his yards per attempt was over 8. 

Not saying it was all Gordon - as you pointed out there were other factors, but lets not discount it totally.  It was a different offense when Gordon was on the field. 

Certainly having someone else to throw to helped Brady, but I think there really is no good way to look at the numbers and conclude much of anything. As already indicated, no Edelman was a huge issue. Brady hurt was a huge issue. Then after finally having some games with JG, then they had to rearrange things to make do without him . . . which certainly didn't help any.

But Brady threw for 343 yards, 348 yards, and 262 yards with his knee in better shape in the playoffs and without Gordon. Did having Gordon help the offense once he came along? More than likely. But did Gordon put up big numbers when he played? Not really.He averaged 65 yards and basically a TD every 4th game. Not horrible but not great. Basically trending toward a 1000/4 season. Again, depending upon where and how a fantasy owner got him, that could be decent to nominal value. Bottom line, he wasn't a huge fantasy impact last year. Granted, things could change, but clearly he would need to be reinstated sooner rather than later and be available for the season.

Unlike past seasons, Brady threw for either 0 or 1 TD in 11 of 19 games last year. That is probably an outgrowth of Gronk being limited and Brady audibling to running plays at the goal line. That was the biggest difference in Brady last year. Between the regular season and post season, he averaged 279 passing yards per game, which over a 16 game season would be a shade under 4500 yards over a full season.

I don't really know what to expect for red zone receiving threats this year. My guess is they continue to pound the ball into the red zone or they exploit mismatches to get White open at the goal line.

Over the past 3 seasons that Edelman has played, counting his regular season and playoff numbers, he has produced at a rate of 106-1255-6 over a 16-game season. That probably won't change much in terms of his production (the verdict is out if he can play every game though).

Given that we have no idea how many games Gordon would be available for (and when he could even practice), it's tough to decipher how he would fit in. I would guess the TE position will be an afterthought in the receiving game this year and the WR group will just get more production overall (and maybe they throw to the backs a little more as well).

If Gordon can be acquired for pennies on the dollar, he's still worth the lottery ticket, but I wouldn't run to draft him until the later rounds. Even if he gets reinstated, I would still be cautious not to take him too early. Drafting him as a depth guy on a fantasy team great. Drafting him as a fantasy starter in the top third of a draft? Likely looking for trouble.

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32 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I agree that the Pats run an amoeba offense and reconfigure to fit who is on their roster (obviously with great success). Not sure they are moving to more of a deep threat style with less dink and dunk. That may have been true 2-3 years ago when they had Cooks and Hogan. Brady was not as efficient or as accurate last year, and I don't think they had many deep throws. They had some, like you said, when they sucked in the defense to stop the run or when it was third down anyway and Brady just took a deep shot. But they still ran a ton of underneath routes and tosses to White to set up 2nd or 3rd and short.

Even without a true deep threat most years, they usually took their shots to either keep defenses honest or set teams up for when they really needed a big play. If that's what you mean by deep over the top a couple times a game, then sure, I'd go with that. But last year they ran a ton of short routes with an occasionally seam route or deep cross. I was actually surprised at how little they ran Gordon on deeper routes.

Maybe that had to do with Brady's knee issue. Maybe that had to do with limited confidence in the line. But I don't remember a ton of deeper routes, save for the occasional post route by Gronk and once in a great while Dorsett.

Harry and Gordon are unlike any WRs the Pats have had since Moss.  The receivers were filling roles on the deep side, but they didn't excel against man to man. They essentially kept the defense honest. These receivers should win more of those 50/50 balls than they lose.  Put them both on the field with a big back and you have a mismatch against most NFL teams somewhere.

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Just now, Hairy Snowman said:

Harry and Gordon are unlike any WRs the Pats have had since Moss.  The receivers were filling roles on the deep side, but they didn't excel against man to man. They essentially kept the defense honest. These receivers should win more of those 50/50 balls than they lose.  Put them both on the field with a big back and you have a mismatch against most NFL teams somewhere.

BB has made a concerted effort to get bigger receivers on the roster this year.

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On 6/21/2019 at 1:07 AM, spudgusta said:

 The league will come around on the weed just like the rest of the United States.  If it is going to look the other way on domestic abuse (Tyreek Hill) then it's dumb stance on weed looks even worse.

His problem isnt just weed

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8 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Will he be kissing him on the mouth too?

Jealous?  

I can't say whether he is for sure, but it sounds like Tom Brady may be taking on the sponsor role in his treatment program while he is in NE.  If that turns out to be the case, you better believe Gordon is playing and probably is going to play his heart out. 

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7 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Jealous?  

I can't say whether he is for sure, but it sounds like Tom Brady may be taking on the sponsor role in his treatment program while he is in NE.  If that turns out to be the case, you better believe Gordon is playing and probably is going to play his heart out. 

No. Sponsors are themselves former addicts for t'ment purposes. Anybody who knows anything about addiction can tell you that.

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

No. Sponsors are themselves former addicts for t'ment purposes. Anybody who knows anything about addiction can tell you that.

True.  But regardless, you need a sober foundation.  Maybe that is the difference between a foster - addict and non-addict?  I really don't know.  I imagine that Josh will have his sponsor in Florida.  Maybe they work together? But, again, I think Tom Brady taking a direct role in the mans recovery has to point to good things. 

Edit to add: I'm jealous.  Josh Gordon is catching passes from the GOAT and hanging out with him and Giselle.   You aren't? Come on. A little?

  

Edited by Hairy Snowman
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15 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

True.  But regardless, you need a sober foundation.  Maybe that is the difference between a foster - addict and non-addict?  I really don't know.  I imagine that Josh will have his sponsor in Florida.  Maybe they work together? But, again, I think Tom Brady taking a direct role in the mans recovery has to point to good things. 

  

I will always be somewhat skeptical about Gordon and both his recovery and chances of relapse. I am sure the Patriots would love to have Gordon back ASAP, and maybe some of having Kraft and Brady intervening since he came to town is for show. Maybe they are trying to put even more of a marketing and PR spin to get the league to buy in that this time things really are different. It's great that Brady may want to take JG under his wing, but was there really a need to go public about it? How on earth could Brady have any common ground in understanding or relating to Gordon's inner demons?

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I will always be somewhat skeptical about Gordon and both his recovery and chances of relapse. I am sure the Patriots would love to have Gordon back ASAP, and maybe some of having Kraft and Brady intervening since he came to town is for show. Maybe they are trying to put even more of a marketing and PR spin to get the league to buy in that this time things really are different. It's great that Brady may want to take JG under his wing, but was there really a need to go public about it? How on earth could Brady have any common ground in understanding or relating to Gordon's inner demons?

Honestly, It seems to me that Brady started posting his workouts on twitter right when JG stopped posting his.  I have never seen (or heard of) Brady working out to the extent he has been this off season. We all know Gordon is a workout madman.  Gordon didn't tweet that pass catch from Brady.  That was Brady that tweeted the catch.  Like he has been tweeting workouts all summer.  

My question.  How long have they been working out together for?  All we know is the taste, but since when does Brady post his workouts? Is it possible the change in behavior has more of a reason than we know? 

Just saying.  Tweeting workouts seems more of a Flash Gordon thing.

Edited by Hairy Snowman

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