I get that his 40 time may be faster had he prepped as much as the spring draft guys do. And I understand and accept that some guys play faster than they measure. But let's also keep in mind that announcing his decision to declare for the supplemental draft isn't the same as him deciding that morning to declare. If he's so smart, and I assume he is, isn't it possible he was more prepped for his pro day than we think? He may have gambled that he'd get this benefit of the doubt. If we know that guys manipulate the system to mask weaknesses, which Bracie states and which I agree with, why are we swallowing all of his narrative so hook, line and sinker?
Also, is training for the combine going to add 4 inches to your vertical and almost a foot to your long jump? Technique is one thing. But let's not act like he was some kid who just walked into his pro day having not done a thing for more than a year. He was on a team and practicing last year even if he wasn't game eligible, right? And he could have been planning and working towards the draft for some time but waited to announce for strategic purposes...perhaps to compress the time clubs would have to investigate him or to bolster the spin that he would have tested better had he more time to prepare.
Bracie's point about front office tampering makes sense, BTW. I hadn't considered that angle. So that would explain the anonymous comments.
Again, I'm not saying you should be betting against him. I'm just trying to divine the truth, at least as much as we can do so in these situations.
Measureables are tools for scouts. They gather accurate raw numbers and plug them into a metric and only a few guys come out the other side labeled as having 'rare' physical skills. Basic stats, mean is average. One standard deviation away from the mean is a significant statistical measurement, two standard deviations stumbles into 'rare' teritory, three standard deviations is the outliner and goes into uncharted areas.
When one scout or a coach or a reporter says something it doesn't automatically ping on my radar. Schefter is one of the guys I have learned to listen to whenever he reports on something. He's very careful and doesn't make these sorts of reports without fact checking. Schefter wasn't the first or only one coming up with NFL scouting sources saying Gordon has 'rare' physical skills.
You are 100% correct, Gordon was practicing with a team for an entire year and even if he made the decision to declare for the supplemental draft on June 29 he wasn't sitting around eating Cheeteos and Ding Dongs watching Oprah. You zero in on things connected to core strength. Core strength is another term that the scouting crowd uses to describe a mass of muscle/strength connected to strength which helps all of the things you point out as weakness' with Gordon, verticle, broad, bench, etc. All of those measurables are connected to what is simply called 'core' strength or just 'core'. WRs who have great 'core' strength in addition to having size and speed etc obviously have an edge but the only real advantage for a WR in connection to 'core' strength is verticle rise.
Vert is based off of explosion and is essential for NBA guys and helps quite a bit for WRs going up for balls.
OK, NOW this is where Gordon's exceptional span and arm length come into play.
The best way to explain this is with an anology but to really 'get it' I'll have to greatly exaggerate so stay with me. Consider if you stand on your tip-toes to reach up on a high ktichen shelf for a glass but its just out of reach. Now consider if your feet grew by one foot in length and NOW you stand up on your tip-toes to reach for that glass, what is the outcome?
Ahhhhhh, yes. That is the COMBINED advantage of, hieght, span, AND arm length. It more than cancels out vert because when a WR goes up to battle a DB for a jump ball they BOTH have to set their feet and gain position even before anything happens. With longer arms than average and a much longer span than average and already being over 6'3 with under estimated speed he has 'rare' physical gifts and the tape shows he naturally knows how to use his gifts.
Here are game tape observations on M.Sanu I pulled up:
Too big and strong for most defenders.
A threat to beat the defender over the top.
Good acceleration and good, but not elite, speed.
Eats up the cushion.
Outstanding hand eye coordination.
Impressive body control and awareness.
Very reliable hands and a wide catch radius due to his long arms.
Strong leaping skills.
Quick burst off the line.
Exciting blend of size, strength and natural running skills.
Good strength and very good effort blocking.
Sanu measured:
6'2" height. (Gordon is 6'3")
211 lbs. (Gordon is 224)
36" vertical. (Matches Gordon)
126" broad jump. (Betters Gordon by 5")
19 bench reps. (Betters Gordon by 6 reps)
4.67 in the 40. (Worse by 0.15, which isn't insignificant)
33.4" arm length (Essentially matches Gordon's 33.33" arms)
10.1" hands (essentially matches Gordon's 10" hands)
How about Randle?
Big, strong and athletic.
Good strength and burst.
Smooth accelerator who can get behind the defense.
Strong hands.
Long arms and big hands.
Has the speed to beat defenders deep.
Good body control.
Good flexibility to extend and pluck passes.
Takes pride in his role as blocker.
Randle's measurables?
6'3" height (same)
210 lbs. (Gordon is heavier)
31" vertical (Gordon better by 5", but then Little is better than Gordon, remember)
121" broad jump (matches Gordon)
15 bench reps (better than Gordon by 2)
4.55 in the 40. (0.02 slower...than a pro day time)
33" arm length. (1/3 of an inch shorter than Gordon)
9.4" hands. (0.6 inches smaller than Gordon)
Criner's measurables?
6'2" height (shorter than Gordon)
224 lbs. (same weight)
38" vertical (2" better than Gordon)
117" broad jump (4" worse than Gordon)
17 bench reps (4 more reps than Gordon)
4.68 in the 40. (0.16 slower, again, not insignificant)
32" arm length. (1.33" shorter than Gordon)
10.4" hands. (0.4" larger than Gordon)
We see with Criner similar reference to his size, hands, strength and athleticism, and his speed is described as "deceptive". In my mind "deceptive" translates to better game speed than timed speed.
How about Tommy Streeter?
6'4" height. (Taller than Gordon)
219 lbs. (giving up 5 lbs to Gordon)
33" vertical. (3" worse than Gordon)
125" broad jump. (4" better than Gordon)
17 bench reps. (4 reps better than Gordon)
4.40 in the 40. (Ran 0.12 faster than Gordon's pro day speed)
34.6" arm length. (1.6" longer than Gordon)
9.4" hands. (giving up 0.6" to Gordon)
The funny thing about Streeter, who is only giving a few pounds and less than an inch in hand size up to Gordon while smoking Gordon's 40 time and being taller, is that scouts wonder if Streeter is a one year wonder. Hmm. He has great length and high points well. His weaknesses are being raw and not using good technique to get off the line cleanly. Sound familiar? Streeter was a 6th round pick this year.
Isn't it possible we are judging Gordon in a vacuum right now and he's therefore looking more impressive than he would if he was being poked and prodded alongside the rest of the 2012 WR raft class?
You are right once again, ALL of those guys went into the draft process but none of them were considered to have 'rare' physical skills. They possess some things better/worse than Gordon but the key is they went thru the draft process.Its not a mistake that those guys did not go higher in the draft. Gordon only had one team put a second round bid on him, Cleveland.
The scouting community did weigh in and they said he has 'rare' physical skills.
You mentioned Gordon played his hand close to his vest and declared late in the game so people wouldn't poke around too much on his background, possibly but consider this.
Cleveland used its first round pick in 2011 on DT Phil Taylor. Cleveland was seriously looking into taking Baylor QB RG III and was willing to pay three first round draft picks and its high second round draft pick this year but missed out. We know from reports that the Browns were set to take Baylor WR Kendall Wright with its 22nd pick in the first round but missed out. Now the Browns have taken former Baylor WR Josh Gordon and made the only second round bid on him. What does this say about Cleveland's scouting department inside Baylor?
It says they have a trusted source inside Baylor and they've invested high picks and would have invested other high picks on players from Baylor indicating they would have bet all of thier highest picks on word from that source.
So they may have paid a higher price than other teams would have but they did not make a blind bet, they bet on a trusted source that Gordon has overcome his 'issue' with pot and the scouting community has said he has 'rare' physical skills so I see him as a guy with 'rare' physical skills going into a very advantageous situation to produce earlier rather than later and the path is paved for him to turn into a legit #1 WR long term.
The gamble is whether or not he'll do the work to turn into a #1 WR but consider how hard he worked to overcome his 'issue' AND that he worked and practiced with a team for an entire year knowing he'd never play a down. That shows commitment so I think the Browns made a good gamble and I'm willing to make the same gamble if he falls in my rookie draft.