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2004 Top 15 NFL RB's (1 Viewer)

eoMMan

Footballguy
Excluding rookies..... ;) 1. Priest2. A. Green3. Tomlinson4. J. Lewis5. Portis6. D. McAllister7. S. Alexander8. F. Taylor9. D. Davis10. Edgerrin11. K. Barlow12. Duckett13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk15. S. Davis16. R. Williams17. A. Thomas18. T. Barber19. C. Martin20. C. DillonYes, I have Faulk, Davis, and Williams out of my top 10. I downgraded these guys due to age/heavy workload/injury risk.What's yours? :excited:

 
Excluding rookies..... ;) 1. Priest2. A. Green3. Tomlinson4. J. Lewis5. Portis6. D. McAllister7. S. Alexander8. F. Taylor9. D. Davis10. Edgerrin11. K. Barlow12. Duckett13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk15. S. Davis16. R. Williams17. A. Thomas18. T. Barber19. C. Martin20. C. DillonYes, I have Faulk, Davis, and Williams out of my top 10. I downgraded these guys due to age/heavy workload/injury risk.What's yours? :excited:
I would think Tomlinson would be downgraded due to injury concerns.
 
1. Tomlinson - The man2. McAllister3. A. Green4. Portis5. Taylor - Talented back in an improving offense. I feel like he has another season of his prime left.6. Lewis - Regression to the mean is the idea here. See Ricky Williams last season. 7. Holmes8. James 9. D. Davis - Top 5 upside if healthy all season10. Barlow11. R. Williams - Probably underrated here, but his YPC stunk this season12. S. Alexander - Don't see him as elite talent14. T. Henry15. M. Faulk - He showed signs of life, but I just feel like he's falling off and he hasn't been able to stay healthy lately

 
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1. Tomlinson2. Holmes3. Mcallister4. Portis5. A. Green6. D. Davis7. M. Faulk8. S. Alexander9. Lewis10. Barlow11. Rudi J. (Rudi! Rudi!)12. R. Williams13. James14. Duckett15. S. Davis16. F. Taylor17. Onterrio (had to put him on the list after the hype this year)18. T. Henry (share carries)19. Lamont Jordan ;) 20. Ladell Betts :eek: 18.

 
1. Tomlinson - The man2. McAllister3. A. Green4. Portis5. Taylor - Talented back in an improving offense. I feel like he has another season of his prime left.6. Lewis - Regression to the mean is the idea here. See Ricky Williams last season. 7. Holmes8. James 9. D. Davis - Top 5 upside if healthy all season10. Barlow11. R. Williams - Probably underrated here, but his YPC stunk this season12. R. Johnson13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk - He showed signs of life, but I just feel like he's falling off and he hasn't been able to stay healthy lately15. S. Davis - Foster looms
Alexander?
 
1. Tomlinson - The man2. McAllister3. A. Green4. Portis5. Taylor - Talented back in an improving offense. I feel like he has another season of his prime left.6. Lewis - Regression to the mean is the idea here. See Ricky Williams last season. 7. Holmes8. James 9. D. Davis - Top 5 upside if healthy all season10. Barlow11. R. Williams - Probably underrated here, but his YPC stunk this season12. R. Johnson13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk - He showed signs of life, but I just feel like he's falling off and he hasn't been able to stay healthy lately15. S. Davis - Foster looms
Any reason why you have Holmes listed so low...
 
1. Tomlinson - The man2. McAllister3. A. Green4. Portis5. Taylor - Talented back in an improving offense. I feel like he has another season of his prime left.6. Lewis - Regression to the mean is the idea here. See Ricky Williams last season. 7. Holmes8. James 9. D. Davis - Top 5 upside if healthy all season10. Barlow11. R. Williams - Probably underrated here, but his YPC stunk this season12. R. Johnson13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk - He showed signs of life, but I just feel like he's falling off and he hasn't been able to stay healthy lately15. S. Davis - Foster looms
You forgot S. Alexander.....or do you see that big of a drop off?Part of the reason I asked for you opinions is because someone offered me S. Alexander for Portis straight up. I told him he was crazy. In the last 2 years, Portis has only played 13 games in each season and has put up over 1500 yards rushing and over 12 TD's rushing both years. He's young, in a great system, and I really don't think he's hit his peak yet.However, the fact that he only played 13 games this year concerns me a little. I love his numbers when he plays but he's more of a risk healthwise than Alexander. Why am I 2nd guessing myself? Forget I said anything..... :wacko: :wall:
 
I'm not a big Alexander fan, but I did forget him. I put him at #12 for now although I'd probably move him up come draft day. As for Priest, I just prefer to draft younger backs. You never know when that drop off will come and there's really no real reason to take a chance on an aging back.

 
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Excluding rookies..... ;) 1. Priest2. A. Green3. Tomlinson4. J. Lewis5. Portis6. D. McAllister7. S. Alexander8. F. Taylor9. D. Davis10. Edgerrin11. K. Barlow12. Duckett13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk15. S. Davis16. R. Williams17. A. Thomas18. T. Barber19. C. Martin20. C. DillonYes, I have Faulk, Davis, and Williams out of my top 10. I downgraded these guys due to age/heavy workload/injury risk.What's yours? :excited:
Good list. :thumbup: Here are my adjustments.1. Tomlinson -- I think this is his year, and he's a YAC monster. 2. A. Green -- been around a bit, but seems to be hitting his stride3. Priest -- still awesome, but less TDs4. Portis 5. D. McAllister6. J. Lewis7. S. Alexander8. E. James9. T. Henry10. D. Davis -- will be very involved in the passing game11. F. Taylor12. R. Williams13. S. Davis14. K. Barlow15. M. FaulkI can see Rudi Johnson and Brian Westbrook (if Duce is gone) cracking this list.
 
1. Tomlinson 2. Green3. Holmes4. McAllister5. Lewis 6. Portis7. Faulk 8. Alexander 9. Williams10. Taylor 11. James 12. Barlow13. Henry14. Dillon15. Johnson

 
As for Priest, I just prefer to draft younger backs. You never know when that drop off will come and there's really no real reason to take a chance on an aging back.
27 TDs isn't a good enough reason?The guy has fresh legs and should be healthier next year than he was this year. Besides, the Chiefs Oline is a huge reason for his success and they'll still be blocking for him next year.
 
When evaluating players I usually look at yards more than I look at touchdowns. Touchdowns seem to be slightly more random and thus a weaker reflection of a player's skill. Priest is indeed a scoring machine in that system, but he'll be 31 next season and I feel like younger backs like Deuce and Tomlinson are every bit as talented and still have some upside.

 
Excluding rookies..... ;) 1. Priest2. A. Green3. Tomlinson4. J. Lewis5. Portis6. D. McAllister7. S. Alexander8. F. Taylor9. D. Davis10. Edgerrin11. K. Barlow12. Duckett13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk15. S. Davis16. R. Williams17. A. Thomas18. T. Barber19. C. Martin20. C. DillonYes, I have Faulk, Davis, and Williams out of my top 10. I downgraded these guys due to age/heavy workload/injury risk.What's yours? :excited:
Your list is similar to mine - I make LT #1, leave the rest of the order pretty much the same, elevate Edge a notch, and bump Henry and Ricky higher than the young'uns.
 
I'm not saying those other guys don't have value. But, I can't understand anyone backing off Holmes next year after what he did this year, especially during the fantasy playoffs.2002: 24 TDs in 14 games2003: 27 TDs in 16 gamesPlus, despite his age, he still has only 1419 NFL career rushing attempts.For comparison, here are the career carries of other similarly-aged RBs:Jerome Bettis - 3119Curtis Martin - 2927Eddie George - 2733Marshall Faulk - 2576Stephen Davis - 1701Charlie Garner - 1505I believe the wear and tear of carrying the ball is a much bigger influence on a RBs longevity than their age. Priest should still have a few more good years left in him, and it would take guts to pass on a guy who has scored 51 times in 2 seasons.

 
Priest should still have a few more good years left in him, and it would take guts to pass on a guy who has scored 51 times in 2 seasons.
I 100% agree - except it doesn't take "guts" to pass on Holmes, it takes blind lack of sense. These are the same folks who had Priest down at #5 or 6 the past two years. Keep doubting the Padre - the more there are, the less I have to have the #1 spot to get a shot at him.
 
1. LT2. Holmes3. Portis4. Deuce5. R Williams6. James7. A Green8. Lewis9. Taylor10. Alexander11. Henry12. S Davis13. Barlow14. Dom Davis15. FaulkProbably not a very exciting list and, truth to tell, I could take about 8 of those guys & put them in any order. I could see myself dropping Henry & S Davis a bit come August, depending on how the offseason shakes out for teams like Minnesota & Washington.

 
1. Tomlinson- Read somewhere, on this board, he had more fantasy points than Holmes over the last 14 weeks. 2. Deuce- Woulda taken Holmes here yesterday, but after playing NFL stats trivia last night here with some fellow FBG's, one stat stuck out. Lewis and Deuce led the league with 20+ yard runs with 16, Holmes only had 6, not a huge deal, but enough for me to knock Holmes down a spot or two.3. Portis- Assuming i was gonna have Griffin. The two of them combined should be the #1 back next year.4. Holmes- There are safer choices, he will be 31. And im not buying that "well, he may be 31, but he hasnt taken alot of hits" crap, my Grandfather has never taken a hit, but he would be forced into retirment by a strong handoff.5. Lewis- May have him ahead of Holmes by draft day, hopefully his two reconstucted knees hold up.6.AGreen- I would vote him least likely to match his #'s for this year(well, besides for Holmes) but he will still have a solid season. Injuries/fumbles/possible Favre retirement scare me.7. Alexander- Perhaps not the most talented guy, but if he can hold off Morris for another year, he should finish around here on TD's alone.8. Taylor- Healthy for another 16? if he does, he belongs at least here, assuming Del Rio does not limit his touches too much.9. RWilliams- Maybe the new VP of operations(or whatever Marino's "title" is) can get this teams offense going next year. :D 10. DDavis- Well, i needed one suprise in my top 10, and Davis is it. As long as the Texans dont try and get Hollings in the mix too much, Davis should definetly challenge for the top 10 next year.11. James- Thoguh he showed some improvement over the last half of the season, he will never be the James of old.12. Faulk- He may need all 16 games to finish here, and since he hasnt played all 16 in 4-5 years, i doubt he will next year, but i will give him the benefit of the doubt.13. Lee Suggs- This guy did more in one game than Green did in two years, if the Browns add some Oline, this guy is going to be a monster, thats right, a monster14. SDavis- I think he has one more good year before passing the torch to Foster.15.Barlow-Give him the nod over Henry, because i think(and hope) Mcgahee is the man next year.16. Henry- see above17. RJohnson- Looked good in stints last year, with Dillon gone he could be a solid #2 FF back.18. Dillon- Pending what team he signs with, he could be higher19. Shipp- Young up and coming offense now with Dennis Green, Shipp should be solid next year, assuming Emmitt doesnt steal too many carries.20. Barber- Could move up by draft day(how many months til august anyway? are there football mags out yet?) pending how new coach uses him.Honorable mention- Westbrook- Hmm, another guy with injury concerns, but if he stays healthy and Duce does leave, he could be a real steal next year.edited to add Lee Suggs

 
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Holmes- Loss at home in playoffs will keep the fire burning

Tomlinson- Could easily be the nunmber one guy.

A. Green- Starting to realize his vast potential.

D. McCal- Primed for a great year on a team full of yo-yo's!

J. Lewis- Rushing freak but receiving numbers can get better.

C. Portis- Has the skills but for a young guy he can't take the beating.

S. Alex- Just keeps scoring the TDs.

D. Davis- This will be the flavor of the year in RB stables. Has all the tools.

Edge- I will puke if I hear one more he is not the same comment.

F. Taylor- Can he stay healthy? Jags are turning the corner. Panthers of the AFC.

M. Faulk- Still has value but he is no longer the number one RB on fantasy rosters.

R. Williams- Could he raise his game a notch like Ahman did in GB after a mediocre year?

S.Davis- If only he could play all 16 in a season!

T. Henry- Maybe a team change will help? Redskins? Cowboys?

Rudi Johnson- If he is the man he will rock and roll behind a solid OL.

 
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When evaluating players I usually look at yards more than I look at touchdowns. Touchdowns seem to be slightly more random and thus a weaker reflection of a player's skill. Priest is indeed a scoring machine in that system, but he'll be 31 next season and I feel like younger backs like Deuce and Tomlinson are every bit as talented and still have some upside.
I think that's a fair point. Holmes did have his incredible 27 TDs, but he did finish 9th in rushing yards, 4th in total yards, and 6th in total touches (rushing attempts plus receptions).Don't get me wrong - Holmes is incredible and certainly warrants consideration at #1. But let's say the touchdowns drop off to roughly that of other top backs - will the yardage totals be enough to overtake those guys? I'm not so sure.
 
2. Deuce- Woulda taken Holmes here yesterday, but after playing NFL stats trivia last night here with some fellow FBG's, one stat stuck out. Lewis and Deuce led the league with 20+ yard runs with 16, Holmes only had 6, not a huge deal, but enough for me to knock Holmes down a spot or two.
Fair point, but be careful with this logic. In '02, Ricky Williams had 16 runs of over 20 yards (!!!) IIRC. As a result he was a FF machine with good TD #s and good yardage. This year, he had 3 runs of over 20 yards - one for a TD, one for his longest run of the year, and one in Week 1 that was brought back on a McMichael hold. Result? Low YPC and "disappointing" tag for this year....HERD
 
2. Deuce- Woulda taken Holmes here yesterday, but after playing NFL stats trivia last night here with some fellow FBG's, one stat stuck out. Lewis and Deuce led the league with 20+ yard runs with 16, Holmes only had 6, not a huge deal, but enough for me to knock Holmes down a spot or two.
Fair point, but be careful with this logic. In '02, Ricky Williams had 16 runs of over 20 yards (!!!) IIRC. As a result he was a FF machine with good TD #s and good yardage. This year, he had 3 runs of over 20 yards - one for a TD, one for his longest run of the year, and one in Week 1 that was brought back on a McMichael hold. Result? Low YPC and "disappointing" tag for this year....HERD
Its not so much that i boosted up Deuce and Lewis as it is i downgraded Holmes.
 
It's only January 13th, so this won't be the first time I say this before training camps start, but wow, 2004 was a very weird year. Weird in the sense that there was (a) no rookie among the top scoring RBs (1/10; 6 per TD) and (b) not a whole lot of "churn" in the names of the top 12 RBs.

D. Davis finished 13th. Contrast that with Portis who finished 4th (but not starting 16 games) the year before.

Here's 2003's top 12 with 2002 finish in parentheses:

1 Holmes, Priest KCC (1)

2 Green, Ahman GBP (12)

3 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC (3)

4 Lewis, Jamal BAL (13)

5 Portis, Clinton DEN (4)

6 Alexander, Shaun SEA (6)

7 McAllister, Deuce NOS (5)

8 Taylor, Fred JAC (11)

9 Williams, Ricky MIA (2)

10 James, Edgerrin IND (24)

11 Henry, Travis BUF (8)

12 Davis, Stephen CAR (25)

Tiki Barber (from 7 to 13), Eddie George (10 to 23) and Charlie Garner (9 to infinity ;) ) were the guys to fall out of the top tier. But Barber and George still posted respectable numbers and given most folks' feelings about George, only Barber could be considered a disappointment (and not much of one at that).

Maybe its just me, but I find it amazing that three guys finished in the exact same position in consecutive years (Holmes, Tomlinson and Alexander).

Also, outside of James and Davis, there were no exceptional leaps in performance (which, for want of any existing definition, I'll propose as a move of 12 spots or more year-to-year for a non-rookie player). However, both James and Davis have been there before and have reasonable explanations for their respective leaps (i.e., return from injury and FA situation).

That said, I think the odds favor some of these guys falling out of the top tier next year in a big way, as well as at least one rookie making it into the top group. Who will it be? Again, ignoring rookies and not trying to predict injuries, here's my complete stab in the dark* as to who finishes in the top 12:

1. Portis - big assumption that Clinton makes it through the entire season and starts and plays in 16 games. If this happens, I see Portis benefiting from Plummer's second year in the system and Shanahan realizing just who is meal ticket is (which may be a bigger assumption than no injuries for Portis).

2. Tomlinson - Unlike in 2002, LT finished very strongly down the stretch this year (as the #1 back in the last 4 weeks of the season). The Chargers stink and yet LT thrives due in large part to Marty's commitment to running the ball. If the Chargers had changed coaches this season, there is no way I'd have LT this high.

3. Holmes - Until Priest's lifeless body is carried from the field, I won't discount him (too much). Great, great offensive line, great system, great runner. How Billick and/or Ozzie are considered competent, let alone a genius, after letting Priest go is beyond me.

4. James - Edge is back, and the way the Colt offense has been firing on all cylinders down the stretch and into the post season has been amazing. His move back into the top tier this year was no fluke.

5. Williams - Down year for Ricky but I'm betting the Dolphins work on their offensive line issues this offseason. Williams has too much talent not to finish better next year.

6. Alexander - Don't kid yourself, Alexander is Mr. Consistency. :lol: The Seahawks proved that they are a force to be reckoned with offensively and theirs plenty of points to go around in the great Northwest. Alexander will finish 6th again next year.

7. Lewis - No way he puts up the yardage he did last year. And given the genius of Billick, Lewis might not see as many carries either. The fact that Lewis only gets a few catches per game doesn't help much either. Chester Taylor - who saw much less time than Lewis - had 20 catches to Jamal's 26. Not good.

8. Jones - Getting back to my earlier point, we didn't see any dramatic movement in the top tier this past year. I'm saying that won't happen again in 2004. Thomas Jones seemed to win the TB job outright with his performance down the stretch. Pittman, in all likelihood, will be gone from the scene. Jones has the skills and seems to be emerging from his 3 year coma, the Bucs will likely be better and I'm ignoring any impact from Alstott (so sue me).

9. Green - Ahman had a great 2003, but despite the GB offensive line being quite good, I can't see a repeat in 2004. However, Green should finish a little better than in 2002.

10. McCallister - Deuce is another RB that scares the bejeezus out of me given the way the Saints perform from one game to the next. In 2003, Deuce seemed to get his regardless of how the team was performing. I wouldn't want to count on that again in 2004.

11. Taylor - Fred seems to have shed the "fragile' label and I think Jacksonville might be the surprise team in 2004. Why do I think Fred finishes slightly worse than in 2003? Simple, I think the Jaguars become more Leftwich's team (look for a marquee WR in the draft) and that Del Rio continues to spread the carries around (e.g., Toefield).

12. Barlow - Finally took advantage of his opportunity at the end of the year (where he was the 4th best RB in weeks 14-17).

I want no part of the CAR, BUF or MIN situations. One of the RBs on those teams could pop into the top tier, or they could end up as RBBCs. I'm guessing the latter right now.

Warning. This list may suddenly accelerate to dangerous speeds. When not in use, this list should be returned to its special container and kept under refrigeration. If while reading this list, your monitor begins to smoke, get away immediately. Seek shelter and cover head. Accept no substitutes!

 
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The "big 5"TomlinsonA GreenPortisJam LewisHolmesThe next 5DeuceR WilliamsS AlexanderF TaylorM Faulk5 moreEdgyT HenryR JohnsonD DavisS Davishon mention: Barber, Barlow, Westbrook

 
Good list. :thumbup: Here are my adjustments.1. Tomlinson -- I think this is his year, and he's a YAC monster. 2. A. Green -- been around a bit, but seems to be hitting his stride3. Priest -- still awesome, but less TDs4. Portis 5. D. McAllister6. J. Lewis7. S. Alexander8. E. James9. T. Henry10. D. Davis -- will be very involved in the passing game11. F. Taylor12. R. Williams13. S. Davis14. K. Barlow15. M. FaulkI can see Rudi Johnson and Brian Westbrook (if Duce is gone) cracking this list.
I like Stompin Tom Connnors's list. I'd tweak it like this:1. Tomlinson 2. Priest 3. A. Green 4. Portis 5. J. Lewis6. S. Alexander7. D. McAllister8. E. James9. R. Williams10. T. Henry11. D. Davis 12. F. Taylor13. R. Johnson14. S. Davis15. K. Barlow16. M. Faulk
 
It's only January 13th, so this won't be the first time I say this before training camps start, but wow, 2004 was a very weird year. Weird in the sense that there was (a) no rookie among the top scoring RBs (1/10; 6 per TD) and (b) not a whole lot of "churn" in the names of the top 12 RBs.

D. Davis finished 13th. Contrast that with Portis who finished 4th (but not starting 16 games) the year before.

Here's 2003's top 12 with 2002 finish in parentheses:

1 Holmes, Priest KCC (1)

2 Green, Ahman GBP (12)

3 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC (3)

4 Lewis, Jamal BAL (13)

5 Portis, Clinton DEN (4)

6 Alexander, Shaun SEA (6)

7 McAllister, Deuce NOS (5)

8 Taylor, Fred JAC (11)

9 Williams, Ricky MIA (2)

10 James, Edgerrin IND (24)

11 Henry, Travis BUF (8)

12 Davis, Stephen CAR (25)

Tiki Barber (from 7 to 13), Eddie George (10 to 23) and Charlie Garner (9 to infinity ;) ) were the guys to fall out of the top tier. But Barber and George still posted respectable numbers and given most folks' feelings about George, only Barber could be considered a disappointment (and not much of one at that).

Maybe its just me, but I find it amazing that three guys finished in the exact same position in consecutive years (Holmes, Tomlinson and Alexander).

Also, outside of James and Davis, there were no exceptional leaps in performance (which, for want of any existing definition, I'll propose as a move of 12 spots or more year-to-year for a non-rookie player). However, both James and Davis have been there before and have reasonable explanations for their respective leaps (i.e., return from injury and FA situation).

That said, I think the odds favor some of these guys falling out of the top tier next year in a big way, as well as at least one rookie making it into the top group. Who will it be? Again, ignoring rookies and not trying to predict injuries, here's my complete stab in the dark* as to who finishes in the top 12:

1. Portis - big assumption that Clinton makes it through the entire season and starts and plays in 16 games. If this happens, I see Portis benefiting from Plummer's second year in the system and Shanahan realizing just who is meal ticket is (which may be a bigger assumption than no injuries for Portis).

2. Tomlinson - Unlike in 2002, LT finished very strongly down the stretch this year (as the #1 back in the last 4 weeks of the season). The Chargers stink and yet LT thrives due in large part to Marty's commitment to running the ball. If the Chargers had changed coaches this season, there is no way I'd have LT this high.

3. Holmes - Until Priest's lifeless body is carried from the field, I won't discount him (too much). Great, great offensive line, great system, great runner. How Billick and/or Ozzie are considered competent, let alone a genius, after letting Priest go is beyond me.

4. James - Edge is back, and the way the Colt offense has been firing on all cylinders down the stretch and into the post season has been amazing. His move back into the top tier this year was no fluke.

5. Williams - Down year for Ricky but I'm betting the Dolphins work on their offensive line issues this offseason. Williams has too much talent not to finish better next year.

6. Alexander - Don't kid yourself, Alexander is Mr. Consistency. :lol: The Seahawks proved that they are a force to be reckoned with offensively and theirs plenty of points to go around in the great Northwest. Alexander will finish 6th again next year.

7. Lewis - No way he puts up the yardage he did last year. And given the genius of Billick, Lewis might not see as many carries either. The fact that Lewis only gets a few catches per game doesn't help much either. Chester Taylor - who saw much less time than Lewis - had 20 catches to Jamal's 26. Not good.

8. Jones - Getting back to my earlier point, we didn't see any dramatic movement in the top tier this past year. I'm saying that won't happen again in 2004. Thomas Jones seemed to win the TB job outright with his performance down the stretch. Pittman, in all likelihood, will be gone from the scene. Jones has the skills and seems to be emerging from his 3 year coma, the Bucs will likely be better and I'm ignoring any impact from Alstott (so sue me).

9. Green - Ahman had a great 2003, but despite the GB offensive line being quite good, I can't see a repeat in 2004. However, Green should finish a little better than in 2002.

10. McCallister - Deuce is another RB that scares the bejeezus out of me given the way the Saints perform from one game to the next. In 2003, Deuce seemed to get his regardless of how the team was performing. I wouldn't want to count on that again in 2004.

11. Taylor - Fred seems to have shed the "fragile' label and I think Jacksonville might be the surprise team in 2004. Why do I think Fred finishes slightly worse than in 2003? Simple, I think the Jaguars become more Leftwich's team (look for a marquee WR in the draft) and that Del Rio continues to spread the carries around (e.g., Toefield).

12. Barlow - Finally took advantage of his opportunity at the end of the year (where he was the 4th best RB in weeks 14-17).

I want no part of the CAR, BUF or MIN situations. One of the RBs on those teams could pop into the top tier, or they could end up as RBBCs. I'm guessing the latter right now.

Warning. This list may suddenly accelerate to dangerous speeds. When not in use, this list should be returned to its special container and kept under refrigeration. If while reading this list, your monitor begins to smoke, get away immediately. Seek shelter and cover head. Accept no substitutes!
Nice to see someone going against the grain, but if Thomas Jones finishes ahead of Deuce Mcallister, ill stick my head up my own ###.*barring injury of course

 
1) P Holmes2) L Tomlinson3) D McAllister4) C Portis5) A Green6) E James7) S Alexander8) J Lewis9) R Williams10) T Henry11) F Taylor12) M Faulk13) S Davis14) R Johnson15) D Davis16) K Barlow17) T Barber18) T Duckett19) B Westbrook20) L Suggs21) M Shipp22) C Martin23) A Thomas24) G Hearst25) E GeorgeI would include both Kevan Jones and Stephen Jackson in this list (10-20) depending on their situation.

 
My current list; which seems to be changing every day!1. Priest2. Tomlinson 3. A. Green4. Portis5. J. Lewis6. D. McAllister7. S. Alexander8. F. Taylor9. Edgerrin 10. D. Davis11. R. Williams12. S. Davis 13. T. Henry14. M. Faulk15. K. Barlow16. Duckett 17. Rudi J. 18. T. Barber19. A. Thomas20. C. Dillon

 
Here's 2003's top 12 with 2002 finish in parentheses:1 Holmes, Priest KCC (1)2 Green, Ahman GBP (12)3 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC (3)4 Lewis, Jamal BAL (13)5 Portis, Clinton DEN (4)6 Alexander, Shaun SEA (6)7 McAllister, Deuce NOS (5)8 Taylor, Fred JAC (11)9 Williams, Ricky MIA (2)10 James, Edgerrin IND (24)11 Henry, Travis BUF (8)12 Davis, Stephen CAR (25)Maybe its just me, but I find it amazing that three guys finished in the exact same position in consecutive years (Holmes, Tomlinson and Alexander).
Maybe I am misunderstanding why you are amazed. But, the only one of those three that is amazing is Priest. The rest are just coincidence. LT finishes 3rd two years in a row but could have easily been 4th or 2nd with a few less holding penalties taking yards off the board or a few less short TDs by the QB or TE. You get the point. The real take away from this list is that in two consecutive years...Priest was the best RB in the leagueTomlinson, Portis, Alexander, and McAllister were all at the top of the list in that order (more or less)Thanks for posting this list.
 
4. Holmes- There are safer choices, he will be 31. And im not buying that "well, he may be 31, but he hasnt taken alot of hits" crap, my Grandfather has never taken a hit, but he would be forced into retirment by a strong handoff.
Nice! :rotflmao: (I plan on stealing this line and do not even intend to quote you. :D )
 
6.AGreen- I would vote him least likely to match his #'s for this year(well, besides for Holmes) but he will still have a solid season. Injuries/fumbles/possible Favre retirement scare me.
Burning Sensation,Is that injuries to Green or injuries to Favre?It looks to me like Sherman realizes that Favre can not physically carry the team anymore. He is moving to a run based offense with Green the focal point (if they are not there already). I see Green having another great year next year. I tend to think that Favre is the wild card. But, I wonder if having a different QB really impacts Green's production that much. Does the focus on stopping the run by opposing Ds offset more carries and an even bigger role in the offense? I would say yes but Jamal Lewis 2003 seems to contradict that. Then again, you have to respect Brett Favre's ability to get it done and that means a lot.
 
6.AGreen- I would vote him least likely to match his #'s for this year(well, besides for Holmes) but he will still have a solid season. Injuries/fumbles/possible Favre retirement scare me.
Burning Sensation,Is that injuries to Green or injuries to Favre?It looks to me like Sherman realizes that Favre can not physically carry the team anymore. He is moving to a run based offense with Green the focal point (if they are not there already). I see Green having another great year next year. I tend to think that Favre is the wild card. But, I wonder if having a different QB really impacts Green's production that much. Does the focus on stopping the run by opposing Ds offset more carries and an even bigger role in the offense? I would say yes but Jamal Lewis 2003 seems to contradict that. Then again, you have to respect Brett Favre's ability to get it done and that means a lot.
Actually, i was talking about Green, but a Favre injury could have a similar affect. Not that i am terribly concerned about injury to Green, but with the way his 2002 season went, it is a concern.
 
8.  Jones - Getting back to my earlier point, we didn't see any dramatic movement in the top tier this past year.  I'm saying that won't happen again in 2004.  Thomas Jones seemed to win the TB job outright with his performance down the stretch.  Pittman, in all likelihood, will be gone from the scene.  Jones has the skills and seems to be emerging from his 3 year coma, the Bucs will likely be better and I'm ignoring any impact from Alstott (so sue me).
Very gutsy call on Jones. I don't think he'll end up nearly that high, but there are sure to be surprises. As mentioned, it's easy to just point to last year's guys as next year's studs, when, in fact, there are always guys that come out of the woodwork.We still have to see where Jones ends up, and if it turns out to be remaining in Tampa, whether Alstott and Pittman are factors. But if Jones turns out to be the workhorse, a top 10-15 finish is not out of the question.
 
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Off the top of my head:1. Tomlinson - Receiving numbers put him at the top of the list.2. Holmes - Should still put up big numbers. Rush TD's will probably fall off, but he should score a few receiving next year.3. McAllister - He'll get into the end zone next year.4. Portis - Durability concerns keep him out of the top 35. J. Lewis - If he could get into the endzone more regularly, he'd be a monster.6. R. Williams - The Dolphins passing game will improve, and Ricky will get a little room to run.7. Alexander - Scores lots of TD's in a high-powered offense.8. R. Johnson - Had big games when he was the feature back, and with a good, explosive offense, he'll have some huge games. 9. K. Barlow - Showed what he can do. I think Hearst will be gone, and Kevan will finally have the numbers that everyone's been predicting for him for the past 2 years.10. A. Green - I think teams will gear up more to stop the run next year, leading to a decline in Green's numbers. The 3-headed RB monster and his fumbling history could result in Davenport getting goal-line carries.11. E. James - He'll never be back to where he once was, but he has some good years left in him.12. M. Bennett - He'll take the #1 job back, but TD vultures are a concern. 13. Shipp - Green will play the best back on his roster. Shipp will put up numbers similar to 2002 when he became the starter.14. D. Davis - He could move up if Hollings doesn't challenge him for time.15. M. Faulk - His best years are behind him, and durability will continue to be a concern.

 
Off the top of my head:1. Tomlinson - Receiving numbers put him at the top of the list.2. Holmes - Should still put up big numbers. Rush TD's will probably fall off, but he should score a few receiving next year.3. McAllister - He'll get into the end zone next year.4. Portis - Durability concerns keep him out of the top 35. J. Lewis - If he could get into the endzone more regularly, he'd be a monster.6. R. Williams - The Dolphins passing game will improve, and Ricky will get a little room to run.7. Alexander - Scores lots of TD's in a high-powered offense.8. R. Johnson - Had big games when he was the feature back, and with a good, explosive offense, he'll have some huge games. 9. K. Barlow - Showed what he can do. I think Hearst will be gone, and Kevan will finally have the numbers that everyone's been predicting for him for the past 2 years.10. A. Green - I think teams will gear up more to stop the run next year, leading to a decline in Green's numbers. The 3-headed RB monster and his fumbling history could result in Davenport getting goal-line carries.11. E. James - He'll never be back to where he once was, but he has some good years left in him.12. M. Bennett - He'll take the #1 job back, but TD vultures are a concern. 13. Shipp - Green will play the best back on his roster. Shipp will put up numbers similar to 2002 when he became the starter.14. D. Davis - He could move up if Hollings doesn't challenge him for time.15. M. Faulk - His best years are behind him, and durability will continue to be a concern.
No Fred Taylor or Corey Dllon, what if Dillon goes to the Cowboys?
 
OK. I'll go against the grain. I can't believe how low Faulk is being rated. Lower than Barlow who may or may not be a starter? Same with DD and Rudi Johnson. and Shipp? C'mon. If you look at Faulk's numbers this year since he came off of surgery, he's been playing really well. Maybe it depends on your league's scoring system, but in my league, he was top 5 over the last 8 weeks. I averaged his numbers following his surgery and prorated them for an entire season. I know its an IF, but IF he had been healthy all season, he would have finished THIRD in the league, only behind Holmes and Green. When you rank players, you should base it on them being healthy all year. There is no way you can predict an injury. They should be ranked based on an EVEN ranking system. How can you rank someone lower because you THINK he wont play in all the games? People fell into this trap with Fred Taylor but now he's been healthy for two seasons. Rank them ALL as if they will be healthy all year and let people decide on their own whether they want to take a chance on that player baased on their injury history. If not, you should lower people like Portis, Edge and Bennett too.

 
Here is what I came up with today. This list will change about a million times before the draft:

1) Priest Holmes – 2000 total yards and 27 TD’s. :excited:

2) Ladanian Tomlinson – Dependability + 100 receptions = FF Gold.

3) Deuce McCallister – Saints Schedule will be much easier in 2004

4) Clinton Portis – Could be #2 but injuries drop him.

5) Edgerrin James – His past nine games including the playoffs he is averaging 132 combined yards and 1.2 TD’s. He will be a big value pick in ’04.

6) Ahman Green – Career year in 2004 won’t be repeated but he’ll still be solid.

7) Ricky Williams – Returns to form next year.

8) Marshall Faulk – One last hurrah.

9) Fred Taylor – needs to up his rec. numbers & TD’s, but the offense & Leftwich have a year under their belt & a solid Jags Defense will generate opportunities, so I think Fred will benefit.

10) Shaun Alexander – TD machine, offense is formidable. Appears to be a “known quantity” after three consecutive seasons of similar production.

11) Rudi Johnson – Strong WR’s allow for room to run and present scoring chances. If Lewis improves the defense, Rudi will be gobbling up yards as the Bengals run out the clock.

12) Jamal Lewis – Won’t run for 2K again, lacks receptions to make up the difference in yardage.

13) Kevan Barlow – Could be much higher or lower depending on Hearst’s status. I assume he’ll get 75% of the workload next year.

14) Michael Bennett – Hopefully he’ll remain a forgotten man next year, because he has a nice chance to explode behind that big o-line. Don’t forget that Tice was talking about giving him a shot at goal line carries in the off-season, too.

15) Travis Henry – Toughest player to rank based on McGahee. Wait & see.

16) Stephen Davis – Foster will see more time in relief in 2004 and Davis is a lock to miss at least two games a season.

17) Corey Dillon – He’ll go somewhere and be motivated to produce, tough to rank him until we know where, but he belongs on the list.

18) Dominick Davis – Another huge injury risk. He’ll have some big days, but he seems to spend a lot of time in the training room and he’ll have his share of 40 yard, no TD days as well.

19) Tiki Barber – Should still be pretty involved in the offense, Coughlin likes to run it, but will Tiki get the goal line love? Giants will sign Mack, you heard it here first.

20) Curtis Martin – Lack of TD’s hurt him, but I think he’ll be about the same as last year and score a few more with Pennington around for the full season.

 
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No Fred Taylor or Corey Dllon, what if Dillon goes to the Cowboys?
I've been burned by Fred before. He hasn't even been on my draft board the last two years. I wasn't impressed by what I saw from Dillon when he was healthy this year. If he goes to the 'Boys, he'd probably crack the list, but I wouldn't put him in the top 10.I could be wrong about both of them, and like I said, it was just off the top of my head. I won't have a real list until I look at some stats, and see the results of FA movement and the draft.
 
When you rank players, you should base it on them being healthy all year. There is no way you can predict an injury. They should be ranked based on an EVEN ranking system. How can you rank someone lower because you THINK he wont play in all the games?
Ill bet you Michael Vick misses more games over he next 3 years than does Peyton Manning, ill give ya 3 to 1 odds.Point is injury risk IS a factor, sometimes people may get carried away with how big a factor, but if you dont figure it in to your rankings on some level, you will learn the hard way.
 
I've been burned by Fred before. He hasn't even been on my draft board the last two years. I wasn't impressed by what I saw from Dillon when he was healthy this year. If he goes to the 'Boys, he'd probably crack the list, but I wouldn't put him in the top 10.I could be wrong about both of them, and like I said, it was just off the top of my head. I won't have a real list until I look at some stats, and see the results of FA movement and the draft.
Fair enough, although you do know that Fred has played 2 conseutive 16 game seasons, and is still fairly young.
 
Here's 2003's top 12 with 2002 finish in parentheses:1 Holmes, Priest KCC (1)2 Green, Ahman GBP (12)3 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC (3)4 Lewis, Jamal BAL (13)5 Portis, Clinton DEN (4)6 Alexander, Shaun SEA (6)7 McAllister, Deuce NOS (5)8 Taylor, Fred JAC (11)9 Williams, Ricky MIA (2)10 James, Edgerrin IND (24)11 Henry, Travis BUF (8)12 Davis, Stephen CAR (25)
Just curious what list this is from?
 
From fanball:According to The Sporting News, the Dallas Cowboys will likely target Eagles' running back Duce Staley in the offseason. Staley will be an unrestricted free agent in March, and the Eagles are not expected to re-sign him. The Cowboys want to upgrade their running back position this offseason. Dallas finished 12th in the NFL with 1,999 rushing yards in 2003, and Troy Hambrick led the club with 972 rushing yards on 275 carries.

 
Fair enough, although you do know that Fred has played 2 conseutive 16 game seasons, and is still fairly young.
I'm aware of that, but I know that as soon as he makes it onto my team, he'll find a way to get hurt again. I wouldn't pass him over for a clearly inferior guy like Eddie George or anything, but the year I picked him in round 1 and he played a game and a half soured me on him. He'd be the last guy I'd take of guys in the same tier.
 
I'm aware of that, but I know that as soon as he makes it onto my team, he'll find a way to get hurt again. I wouldn't pass him over for a clearly inferior guy like Eddie George or anything, but the year I picked him in round 1 and he played a game and a half soured me on him. He'd be the last guy I'd take of guys in the same tier.
Yeh, and im sure you are not the only guy who feels that way. I drafted him for the first time this year, and was quite pleased with the results.
 
From fanball:According to The Sporting News, the Dallas Cowboys will likely target Eagles' running back Duce Staley in the offseason. Staley will be an unrestricted free agent in March, and the Eagles are not expected to re-sign him. The Cowboys want to upgrade their running back position this offseason. Dallas finished 12th in the NFL with 1,999 rushing yards in 2003, and Troy Hambrick led the club with 972 rushing yards on 275 carries.
This makes sense. Parcells wouldn't put up with Dillon's attitude and Staley has a history of killing the Cowboys, so Jones probably wants him. If this happens I'd think Duce would be able to make the top 20, probably good for about 1300-1600 total yards and a handful of TD's. Possibly some upside, too....
 
Yeh, and im sure you are not the only guy who feels that way. I drafted him for the first time this year, and was quite pleased with the results.
Wasn't really an option in any of my drafts this year anyway. He was a keeper in one league, I picked at the turn in another, and took Stephen Davis over him in another. I might consider him in the second next year if I'm picking near the end of the round.
 
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