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2004 Top 15 NFL RB's (1 Viewer)

I am surprised that Lewis isn't higher on most of these lists.SLOD
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Sonny.....I mean Sea Leopard, he is right there with the other top RB's, i have him at 5, but the gap between him and one is not that big.
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Still, not that the difference between 1 and 5 is even discernable, I am surprised that people are consistently putting 4 or 5 backs in front of him.2000 yards is one thing...but, the fact that the Ravens Defense is young and should improve :shock: is another. Add to it their QB situation, and this is one of the teams you KNOW will have to run the ball and control the clock to win.He is still young...appears to be durable, sans ACL's, and wants the ball all day.Portis, for example, is being consistently taken higher. Fine, but there are questions with his durability and the likeliness of Griffin taking some of the load.Lewis is not only a good pick...he is a very safe one. The situation he is in is unlikely to change. It doesn't matter so much if your 1st pick finishes # 1 or # 6, but if he flops, you're screwed.SLOD
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I could very easily see Lewis being ranked ahead of Portis (I had him one spot lower on my list). You're right, he's proven to be durable and his situation should lead to another strong season of rushing production -- even if he falls well short of 2,000 yards. The thing is, I simply would not take him ahead of the Top 3 RBs, who all (typically) combine receiving production with their rushing, something Lewis does not do. And although I could see strongly considering it, I simply don't believe Lewis has Portis' upside since I think Portis is a more talented RB. As a Portis owner this year, I'm well aware of the durability issue, but if he ever does play an entire season, he could make a run at 2,000 yards himself with 20-plus TDs. He's that good. In fact, in terms of pure talent I think he's arguably the best RB in the game right now. It's the question about his durability which would prevent me from taking him any higher than 4th. But if you're hesitant about that injury possibility and simply want someone you feel confident will be there all 16 games, then Lewis definitely would be a tremendous guy to take ahead of Portis.
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Ironically enough, I'm a Broncos homer. :yes: On top of that, I despise the Ravens. But, this is FF and I'm being objective.So, yeah, I LOVE Portis...and agree on all accounts.I merely brought JL up to highlight my case that Jamal is such a solid pick next year, with an argument for #1 or #2, really. Like I said, you will be fine if your back finishes top 5 or 6, but screwed if something goes awry. Lewis is a great top pick next year. They WILL run the crap out of him.SLOD
 
I am surprised that Lewis isn't higher on most of these lists.SLOD
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Sonny.....I mean Sea Leopard, he is right there with the other top RB's, i have him at 5, but the gap between him and one is not that big.
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Still, not that the difference between 1 and 5 is even discernable, I am surprised that people are consistently putting 4 or 5 backs in front of him.2000 yards is one thing...but, the fact that the Ravens Defense is young and should improve :shock: is another. Add to it their QB situation, and this is one of the teams you KNOW will have to run the ball and control the clock to win.He is still young...appears to be durable, sans ACL's, and wants the ball all day.Portis, for example, is being consistently taken higher. Fine, but there are questions with his durability and the likeliness of Griffin taking some of the load.Lewis is not only a good pick...he is a very safe one. The situation he is in is unlikely to change. It doesn't matter so much if your 1st pick finishes # 1 or # 6, but if he flops, you're screwed.SLOD
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Comparing my top 4 to Lewis:1. Tomlinson- Guy does it all, and with less than anyone else, including Lewis. Chance i would take Lewis over him if i drafted today: .01%2. Mcallister- Runs as well as Lewis, but can catch, plus i have a man crush on him. Odds of taking Lewis over him if i drafted today: 5%3. Portis- That much talent in the most friendly running offense in the league(except fot the Chiefs) only reason Portis isnt #1 is injuries. Odds of taking Lewis before him if i drafted today: 40%4. Holmes- Be very hard to let him slide any further than this in a redraft, for obvious reasons, problem is, im not a big Holmes fan. Odds of taking Lewis over him if i drafted today: 50%
 
The other thing about Portis is, if Shanahan is smart, he'll devise ways to get Portis' hands on the ball 4-5 times a game as a receiver in addition to his rushing numbers. He's so good and so explosive in the open field it's foolish to not make use of him in the passing game more. Even if he's not a good to great receiver like Holmes, Tomlinson and Green, his big-play ability should be maximized as often as possible. That's another reason why I think Portis' upside is so huge. If he stays healthy and really gets maximized correctly, his fantasy production could be downright scary. That's a lot of "ifs" though, I realize and again, I could see making a good case for going with Lewis ahead of Portis. In fact, if I'm picking 4th next year I will be going back and forth on that one a lot trying to decide between the two of them.

 
I am in a league that doesn't give points to receptions. FYI.SLOD
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Same here, but the added receiving yardage and possible receiving TDs Portis could get if used more in the passing game would be nice to get.
 
1. Tomlinson2. Lewis3. Portis4. HolmesI confess, at the 2 spot I would take Portis, due to homerism (watching every game, it's great to have YOUR RB), but bias aside, that's how I'd rank em'.SLOD

 
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I am in a league that doesn't give points to receptions. FYI.SLOD
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What about receiving yards?
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Yes, we get receiving yards.Portis is awesome, don't get me wrong. But, now that they know he isn't the most durable (he IS small), you'll see Griffin getting in there to lighten the load...AND for mop up. Not so in Baltimore.This is more about Lewis and his low risk/high reward. Let's take Ahman, for example, I see him ahead of Lewis on some lists. :no: And Priest, while justifiable, has a top pick right behind him and age creeping up.SLOD
 
Re: Thomas JonesI'm of the opinion that Gruden played him so much towards the end of the season to see what he had at the position (a) in case Pittman is "held up" reporting to camp next year and (b) so he could decide how hard they wanted to try and keep Jones.In a series of otherwise lackluster games, Jones performed admirably and will most likely not get a huge payday from another team with such depth in the draft and a number of other, arguably better RBs as FA of some sort (Barlow, Duce, possibly Dillon).I think Jones is the feature back next year in Tampa with Gruden actually decreasing Alstott's workload so he has a chance to stay healthy. Keep in mind that Jones put up decent numbers without Alstott blocking for him...HERD
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I agree with most of what you said, but I think there might be some teams interested in him. Yes, there's depth in the draft, but a team could get a guy like Jones via UFA and still draft an RB for depth, or perhaps another position of need.Many are discounting Jones if he returns to Tampa, but I've posted it before and I'll post again a recent comment by Gruden:"Thomas Jones was an obscure player coming in here, and he took off," Gruden said. "He's young, thick, quick, and he's getting better in the passing game. We think he's got a chance to really explode onto the scene next year as an every-down back."
 
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I am in a league that doesn't give points to receptions.  FYI.SLOD
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What about receiving yards?
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Yes, we get receiving yards.Portis is awesome, don't get me wrong. But, now that they know he isn't the most durable (he IS small), you'll see Griffin getting in there to lighten the load...AND for mop up. Not so in Baltimore.This is more about Lewis and his low risk/high reward. Let's take Ahman, for example, I see him ahead of Lewis on some lists. :no: And Priest, while justifiable, has a top pick right behind him and age creeping up.SLOD
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LJ is a big a threat to taking Holmes' job next year as i am a threat to take Peyton Mannings' (barring Holmes injury of course) Another thing, No way do i take Lewis over Mcallister, if Cleveland improves their run D in the offseason, i would say Mcallister runs for more yardage next year, and definetly gets more total yards. Also, Deuce is not playing on two surgucally repaired knees. As far as TD's, i believe Deuce also has the advantage there, so there is really no reason for me to consider Lewis in the top 3.
 
"Thomas Jones was an obscure player coming in here, and he took off," Gruden said. "He's young, thick, quick, and he's getting better in the passing game. We think he's got a chance to really explode onto the scene next year as an every-down back."
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Coach speak, its worth less to me than the opinion of Matrix(you know, the annoying Stuart Scott kid)
 
Coach speak, its worth less to me than the opinion of Matrix(you know, the annoying Stuart Scott kid)
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It shouldn't be BS, I liked TJones and agree with Gruden. I wouldn't think ANYONE would take him high but he could easily fall off many people's radar and can be had mid level rounds. Worst case he doesn't pan out and you only lost a mid level pick, best case he could be a solid RB2 or Flex/Spot starter.
 
I am surprised that Lewis isn't higher on most of these lists.SLOD
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Sonny.....I mean Sea Leopard, he is right there with the other top RB's, i have him at 5, but the gap between him and one is not that big.
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Still, not that the difference between 1 and 5 is even discernable, I am surprised that people are consistently putting 4 or 5 backs in front of him.2000 yards is one thing...but, the fact that the Ravens Defense is young and should improve :shock: is another. Add to it their QB situation, and this is one of the teams you KNOW will have to run the ball and control the clock to win.He is still young...appears to be durable, sans ACL's, and wants the ball all day.Portis, for example, is being consistently taken higher. Fine, but there are questions with his durability and the likeliness of Griffin taking some of the load.Lewis is not only a good pick...he is a very safe one. The situation he is in is unlikely to change. It doesn't matter so much if your 1st pick finishes # 1 or # 6, but if he flops, you're screwed.SLOD
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Receiving numbers are practically non-existent, and he showed signs of wear and tear towards the end of the year with injuries and the increased use of Chester Taylor. He was a rushing yardage machine, without a doubt, but the other RB fantasy factors, IMO, lagged behind the guys I put in front of him.He ended as the #4 FF RB while blowing away the field in rushing yardage - 200 more yards, or 20 more FF points, than the next closest , who was AGreen, yet he finished in 4th place. That scares me off making him a pick ahead of the more "complete" FF backs.I leapfrogged Deuce ahead of him only b/c I am convinced a 5.6 YPC, 60+ reception back will be a top-5 back, ahead of greater injury risks like Portis and ahead of one-dimensional backs like JLew.That's MY reasoning, anyway.
 
Coach speak, its worth less to me than the opinion of Matrix(you know, the annoying Stuart Scott kid)
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Perhaps, but so is everything we read and that's how we base our opinions. Anyway, it certainly indicates that Gruden has a high opinion of the guy's skills.To be sure, none of us will know until we see what kind of money Jones gets offered, whether Pittman and Alstott return, and what the team does in free agency or the draft (if anything).
 
This is more about Lewis and his low risk/high reward. Let's take Ahman, for example, I see him ahead of Lewis on some lists. :no: And Priest, while justifiable, has a top pick right behind him and age creeping up.SLOD
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AGreen and Holmes are risks, yet, Portis is your #3 after not being able to make it through the seaosn healthy, and publicly stating he'd be more effective with less carries?I accept JLew is "safer" than Portis, but not any more safe than AGreen or Priest. FINALLY (and most importantly) none of these backs will have contract questions heading into next year - Portis is very likely to hold out after making a contract demand last offseason and playing on his current contract. He will be in contract talks all through next summer and will hold out without a new one. Take that to the bank.
 
Perhaps, but so is everything we read and that's how we base our opinions. Anyway, it certainly indicates that Gruden has a high opinion of the guy's skills.To be sure, none of us will know until we see what kind of money Jones gets offered, whether Pittman and Alstott return, and what the team does in free agency or the draft (if anything).
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Jones = perfect high reward/low risk mid-round pick if he stays in TB. He def. may have shown them enough that he will be a priority to re-sign. He reminds me, on the 2004 draft totem pole, of Bettis or Hearst from 2003.The D is about ti take some hits - LB and DL will be priorities heading into the draft, as will a young WR to follow Charles Lee, McCardell and Jurevicious. I thjink depth at OL was a problem, too. The RB situation will probably be a very low priority and I would not be surprised if they di dnot address it until day 2 of the draft.
 
Look, i'm not advocating anyone actually taking Thomas Jones as one of the top-20 RBs...too much risk, I understand. I'm just saying that if he comes back to Tampa, I think he WILL be a top-20 RB. At the end of the year, the Bucs were hellbent on giving him the ball, and he ran extremely hard...and really had tremendous vision. Plus he caught the ball very well out of the backfield.Early in the year he had some fumbling problems and was getting used to the new offense. A few of his fumbles were big and cost the Bucs points...Gruden seemed to lose trust in him. But once he started getting the ball more in mid-season, he took over the job and was clearly producing. And trust me, that OL is horrible.In the preseason game against J-ville, Jones broke off a big run. Gruden was caught on the sideline saying "that Thomas Jones, we need to get him the ball more." If he comes back to the Bucs next year, he will be getting the ball more. 20+ a game, at least.I really think he'll be top-20. At least. :thumbup:

 
It shouldn't be BS, I liked TJones and agree with Gruden. I wouldn't think ANYONE would take him high but he could easily fall off many people's radar and can be had mid level rounds. Worst case he doesn't pan out and you only lost a mid level pick, best case he could be a solid RB2 or Flex/Spot starter.
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Sure Jones is worth a spot there, but not because of what Gruden says. I would take a chance on jones in mid rounds(10-14) but no way would i consider him in my top 20 RB's. If i go into next season with TJones as my #2 back, i will be awfully upset(although there is no way in hell that will be happening)
 
Jones = perfect high reward/low risk mid-round pick if he stays in TB. He def. may have shown them enough that he will be a priority to re-sign. He reminds me, on the 2004 draft totem pole, of Bettis or Hearst from 2003.The D is about ti take some hits - LB and DL will be priorities heading into the draft, as will a young WR to follow Charles Lee, McCardell and Jurevicious. I thjink depth at OL was a problem, too. The RB situation will probably be a very low priority and I would not be surprised if they di dnot address it until day 2 of the draft.
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Yup. I don't think they are going RB. I know Herd and a few others think they will take Jackson, but I'm willing to bet they trade that pick down and fill some holes. This team needs a quick infusion of talented, young players, and with no second-round pick, the only way to really get that is to trade your first down for more players.I think Jones will re-sign...Allen has already said he's a priority...for the draft, a quick WR who can stretch the D, a few OL and at least 2 linebackers will most likely be the priorities. The OL was one of the worst in the league last year, the team is going to lose Nate Webster (and was already short at LB) and McCardell, JJ and Lee aren't guys who will stretch the field deep. RB is not a need, right now...and for a team taking another shot at the crown, you need guys who can step in and play when and where needed.RB is not necessary if Jones comes back. If he re-signs, he gets the ball.
 
Sure Jones is worth a spot there, but not because of what Gruden says. I would take a chance on jones in mid rounds(10-14) but no way would i consider him in my top 20 RB's. If i go into next season with TJones as my #2 back, i will be awfully upset(although there is no way in hell that will be happening)
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True, just because a coach says something you can't solely go by his words but I did get to watch TJ the last month of the season and he was pretty good, now mind you, I did have a flex position but since sticking him into that spot, he was golden! I always draft two RBs in the first two rounds, always so I have no thoughts of him being a RB1 or RB2 but will he probably fall WAY lower than he should because of limited play and his history? Yes. But, if he falls low enough, why not take a chance on this kid? No harm if he is a bust. I also like James Stewart to get as a value pick who will contribute.I haven't solidified my top 15 RB list yet but will post when it's not so scattered.

Note: In my $$ league, there are always a few people who don't pick two rbs in the first two rounds (want a top 3 WR or QB) so I know I can get two.

Note2: There are rumors that Johnson will not be in TB and Brunell may be signed. I like the fact that TJ was given MANY RedZone/Goal line opps to score. That's golden in my book.

 
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True, just because a coach says something you can't solely go by his words but I did get to watch TJ the last month of the season and he was pretty good, now mind you, I did have a flex position but since sticking him into that spot, he was golden! I always draft two RBs in the first two rounds, always so I have no thoughts of him being a RB1 or RB2 but will he probably fall WAY lower than he should because of limited play and his history? Yes. But, if he falls low enough, why not take a chance on this kid? No harm if he is a bust. I also like James Stewart to get as a value pick who will contribute.I haven't solidified my top 15 RB list yet but will post when it's not so scattered.Note: In my $$ league, there are always a few people who don't pick two rbs in the first two rounds (want a top 3 WR or QB) so I know I can get two.Note2: There are rumors that Johnson will not be in TB and Brunell may be signed. I like the fact that TJ was given MANY RedZone/Goal line opps to score. That's golden in my book.
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I agree with you 100%, but the problem with this whole thing is this is a thread of peoples top 15-20 RB's, and i do not believe Jones' name should be mentioned.(unless your talking Kevin Jones after he gets drafted by the Steelers ;) )
 
True, just because a coach says something you can't solely go by his words but I did get to watch TJ the last month of the season and he was pretty good, now mind you, I did have a flex position but since sticking him into that spot, he was golden! I always draft two RBs in the first two rounds, always so I have no thoughts of him being a RB1 or RB2 but will he probably fall WAY lower than he should because of limited play and his history? Yes. But, if he falls low enough, why not take a chance on this kid? No harm if he is a bust. I also like James Stewart to get as a value pick who will contribute.I haven't solidified my top 15 RB list yet but will post when it's not so scattered.Note: In my $$ league, there are always a few people who don't pick two rbs in the first two rounds (want a top 3 WR or QB) so I know I can get two.Note2: There are rumors that Johnson will not be in TB and Brunell may be signed. I like the fact that TJ was given MANY RedZone/Goal line opps to score. That's golden in my book.
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I agree with you 100%, but the problem with this whole thing is this is a thread of peoples top 15-20 RB's, and i do not believe Jones' name should be mentioned.(unless your talking Kevin Jones after he gets drafted by the Steelers ;) )
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Hmmm well top 15 no way in he**, you're right. Maybe the 20 RB taken??? Hmm maybe not a bad choice. I really dislike some of the players who will be selected there (EGeorge/CuMart/Tiki) though.I would say RBs that are a bit of a Qmart but keeping an eye on for me will be:TJonesSuggs -- who can't love this kid after taking Cinn to town? Depends on WGreen but might be a value pick.JStewart -- picked him in last year's draft LATE and thought I had a lock at my flex spot, until he got hurt!Note: Not including any RB who will be drafted this year at this point (have no clue when/where top RBs are going to play for).
 
True, just because a coach says something you can't solely go by his words but I did get to watch TJ the last month of the season and he was pretty good, now mind you, I did have a flex position but since sticking him into that spot, he was golden! I always draft two RBs in the first two rounds, always so I have no thoughts of him being a RB1 or RB2 but will he probably fall WAY lower than he should because of limited play and his history? Yes. But, if he falls low enough, why not take a chance on this kid? No harm if he is a bust. I also like James Stewart to get as a value pick who will contribute.I haven't solidified my top 15 RB list yet but will post when it's not so scattered.Note: In my $$ league, there are always a few people who don't pick two rbs in the first two rounds (want a top 3 WR or QB) so I know I can get two.Note2: There are rumors that Johnson will not be in TB and Brunell may be signed. I like the fact that TJ was given MANY RedZone/Goal line opps to score. That's golden in my book.
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I agree with you 100%, but the problem with this whole thing is this is a thread of peoples top 15-20 RB's, and i do not believe Jones' name should be mentioned.(unless your talking Kevin Jones after he gets drafted by the Steelers ;) )
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I agree with B.S. that: 1) this thread is about top 20 (15) RBs, and 2) Jones aint on my list.But, the debates fostered here show me that Jones is a likely EOY top-20 candidate if he resigns with the team. He will be on my radar in the 6th or 7th round as a RB3 - - if he's there in the 11th or later of a 12-team redraft after resigning with the Bucs to be their starter, I'll eat my hat. Or, as Herd so eloquently put it (this is the only time I'll continue to give him credit): I will take out a jar of mustard and two slices of bread and I'll eat my own head.
 
True, just because a coach says something you can't solely go by his words but I did get to watch TJ the last month of the season and he was pretty good, now mind you, I did have a flex position but since sticking him into that spot, he was golden! I always draft two RBs in the first two rounds, always so I have no thoughts of him being a RB1 or RB2 but will he probably fall WAY lower than he should because of limited play and his history? Yes. But, if he falls low enough, why not take a chance on this kid? No harm if he is a bust. I also like James Stewart to get as a value pick who will contribute.I haven't solidified my top 15 RB list yet but will post when it's not so scattered.Note: In my $$ league, there are always a few people who don't pick two rbs in the first two rounds (want a top 3 WR or QB) so I know I can get two.Note2: There are rumors that Johnson will not be in TB and Brunell may be signed. I like the fact that TJ was given MANY RedZone/Goal line opps to score. That's golden in my book.
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I agree with you 100%, but the problem with this whole thing is this is a thread of peoples top 15-20 RB's, and i do not believe Jones' name should be mentioned.(unless your talking Kevin Jones after he gets drafted by the Steelers ;) )
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I agree with B.S. that: 1) this thread is about top 20 (15) RBs, and 2) Jones aint on my list.But, the debates fostered here show me that Jones is a likely EOY top-20 candidate if he resigns with the team. He will be on my radar in the 6th or 7th round as a RB3 - - if he's there in the 11th or later of a 12-team redraft after resigning with the Bucs to be their starter, I'll eat my hat. Or, as Herd so eloquently put it (this is the only time I'll continue to give him credit): I will take out a jar of mustard and two slices of bread and I'll eat my own head.
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As it stands right now, i would be taking Wr's out of my top 20 in rounds 5-8, and would not consider Jones there. Now if on draft day in August, TJones is the starter, Pittman is gone and the Bucs didnt bring in anyone to compete with Jones, then that will be a different story.
 
As it stands right now, i would be taking Wr's out of my top 20 in rounds 5-8, and would not consider Jones there. Now if on draft day in August, TJones is the starter, Pittman is gone and the Bucs didnt bring in anyone to compete with Jones, then that will be a different story.
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Pittman played his way into a supporting role and JOnes became the team's feature back by week 10. If TJones is re-signed, Jones will see the ball 18+ times a game, with Pittman and Alstott playing supportive/change-up typical Gruden roles. Even a drafted rookie RB (which probably won't happen) would have trouble finding the field with Stecker also still on the roster. The Bucs are set at RB, even if, as I anticipate, Pittman is sent to jail for 6 mo.s.Pittman also doesn't see a lot of redzone work - Alstott and Jones got those roles even while Pittman was 100%. B.S. - Count your players - 10 QBs, 25 RBs, 20 WRs, 5 TEs - that's 60 players, and the 5th ruond of a 12-team redraft. Add in a few more players here or there, and I'd still say Jones is a drop dead guaranteed pick in the 6th or 7th at the very latest in a 12-team redraft, and a 7th or 8th round pick in a 10-team.I will eat my head on toasted rye if Jones is available in the 10th or later.
 
Pittman also doesn't see a lot of redzone work - Alstott and Jones got those roles even while Pittman was 100%. B.S. - Count your players - 10 QBs, 25 RBs, 20 WRs, 5 TEs - that's 60 players, and the 5th ruond of a 12-team redraft. Add in a few more players here or there, and I'd still say Jones is a drop dead guaranteed pick in the 6th or 7th at the very latest in a 12-team redraft, and a 7th or 8th round pick in a 10-team.
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Ok, your right, my math was off, that is were i would start to consider him.
 
I'm not saying those other guys don't have value. But, I can't understand anyone backing off Holmes next year after what he did this year, especially during the fantasy playoffs.2002: 24 TDs in 14 games2003: 27 TDs in 16 gamesPlus, despite his age, he still has only 1419 NFL career rushing attempts.For comparison, here are the career carries of other similarly-aged RBs:Jerome Bettis - 3119Curtis Martin - 2927Eddie George - 2733Marshall Faulk - 2576Stephen Davis - 1701Charlie Garner - 1505I believe the wear and tear of carrying the ball is a much bigger influence on a RBs longevity than their age. Priest should still have a few more good years left in him, and it would take guts to pass on a guy who has scored 51 times in 2 seasons.
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He wasn't used early in his career much in Baltimore - but you can't ignore that he is 31 next season. Lack of carries does not stop the aging process.He'll still be good, but I see a decline coming.
 
Note: Not including rookie RB at this point since I have no clue where they will be drafted (this is a preliminary list, correct?)My league does include .5 pts per recpt and 1 pt per 10 yards rush and rec. We are switching from a redraft to keeper so this draft will be HUGE IMO. That said, here we go...1. Deuce- in terms of age and upside, there are not many RBs who I would want to have over this kid when starting up a keeper league. Hate the system but how long will their coach be there? When this guy keeps getting auto 100 yards on a team who was not playing well ( a la LT2) you got to love that.2. Tomlinson- love the pts for reception and yards and being from Texas, followed him since his TCU days, may be a bit biased on Texas college RB but in all honesty, it's tough to pass him up. Bonus: unlike many top backs this last year, he DOESN'T FUMBLE!!!3. Holmes- Don't like the fact that he is a bit older than the top backs from last year but even in a keeper league, it lasts 3 years so until Holmes falls off the earth, it's tough to not take him top 3 or 4 IMO. Again, can you go wrong with another Texas college back?:)4. Lewis- drafted him last year in the first quarter of the second round and was the reason I took home the SB in my league so obviously I am a bit biased on this guy. The Ravens can't get any worse in their passing offense next year, can they? I like Lewis toughness, he is a bit mean, and you know will play through nagging injuries. Wish he caught 5. EdgeJames- picked him in the late first round and was nothing but freaking golden during my push for the ring and he along with Jlewis carried me. He had a great year considering his week and a month vacation and only see him as getting better. Call me nuts but I actually seeing him fall a bit to probably an early to at best mid 2nd rounder. Many people don't like him for many obvious reasons but I really have seen a change in Indy's offense to one that knows they must have Edge to carry them far.6. Portis- I really can't think of a better back I saw on the tube than Portis last year, in terms of excitement, youth, ability, quickness and sure "wow" kind of plays. BUT, I HATE the fact that more times than now, injuries and his health was an issue. Can I afford to take him on and possibly get screwed for the next few years if he keeps up his nagging injuries?7. DDavis- Speaking of injuries....another back who is young but was explosive when he played. Yes, I am a Texans fans and yes I do like TH but unless something changes from now until opening day, I want this kid and love the fact he is involved in the passing game (recept pts and yards). I think the Texans will be much improved and their offense could become explosive with Davis being a huge part of this.8. AGreen-hate that he fumbles, hate when I draft him he screws me and hate when I don't draft him he scews me even more. That said, I think GB's days as being a good team are over, downgrading him only because he is clearly their only option now on offense. I just can't see him getting 1800 rushing yards next year IMO.9. Alexander- always a solid #6th ranked RB but I don't like the fact that he isn't used more, why not? QB and WR play? Interesting because he is solid and should be much higher.10. THenry -- what's not to like about this # 10 RB (in my league). He should stay around the 9 - 12 top RB next year.11. Taylor - sooo many people are picking them to be the "sleeper" team. I don't know about that but what I did see was a stellar running back who 12. RWilliams- another Texas running back I like and although he is ranked lower than I like, just don't know at this point where the Fins will go this upcoming year. If they can get a legit QB then this should help him and his work load.13. Lee Suggs- just a hunch but can Cleveland really go forward with Suggs on their bench? Sorry but if Green is no longer their back or starter, I love Suggs at this spot. Will knock out of top 15 if WGreen is their starter though.14. Faulk- lost a step for sure but still plays in the Greatest Show on Turf. I don't like this team going forward and you can already see problems at the QB position. Also, being a keeper league, I don't want him as a RB1 at all, let someone else draft him because he is Marshal Marshal Marshal.15. SDavis- age, can't last a season without getting injured and will be drafted WAY higher than he should. While he is at the bottom of my list I am just not as sold going forward because of these things for keeper leagues.Here is who could/will/may get bounced out of the 12-15 spots:Minn starter -- OSmith/Moe/Bennett? If there is a clear cut winner then I'm going with himSF starter -- without a doubt, I am knocking Barlow top 10 if he is the clear cut starter on this team.Phily starter -- if Westbrook is their starter clear cut, then he will slip in 10 - 15 spotI really am not going to look at SDavis at the last spot and there will be more upside types of backs but right now, he is my last spot on the list.

 
Note: Not including rookie RB at this point since I have no clue where they will be drafted (this is a preliminary list, correct?)My league does include .5 pts per recpt and 1 pt per 10 yards rush and rec. We are switching from a redraft to keeper so this draft will be HUGE IMO. That said, here we go...1. Deuce- in terms of age and upside, there are not many RBs who I would want to have over this kid when starting up a keeper league. Hate the system but how long will their coach be there? When this guy keeps getting auto 100 yards on a team who was not playing well ( a la LT2) you got to love that.2. Tomlinson- love the pts for reception and yards and being from Texas, followed him since his TCU days, may be a bit biased on Texas college RB but in all honesty, it's tough to pass him up. Bonus: unlike many top backs this last year, he DOESN'T FUMBLE!!!3. Holmes- Don't like the fact that he is a bit older than the top backs from last year but even in a keeper league, it lasts 3 years so until Holmes falls off the earth, it's tough to not take him top 3 or 4 IMO. Again, can you go wrong with another Texas college back?:)4. Lewis- drafted him last year in the first quarter of the second round and was the reason I took home the SB in my league so obviously I am a bit biased on this guy. The Ravens can't get any worse in their passing offense next year, can they? I like Lewis toughness, he is a bit mean, and you know will play through nagging injuries. Wish he caught 5. EdgeJames- picked him in the late first round and was nothing but freaking golden during my push for the ring and he along with Jlewis carried me. He had a great year considering his week and a month vacation and only see him as getting better. Call me nuts but I actually seeing him fall a bit to probably an early to at best mid 2nd rounder. Many people don't like him for many obvious reasons but I really have seen a change in Indy's offense to one that knows they must have Edge to carry them far.6. Portis- I really can't think of a better back I saw on the tube than Portis last year, in terms of excitement, youth, ability, quickness and sure "wow" kind of plays. BUT, I HATE the fact that more times than now, injuries and his health was an issue. Can I afford to take him on and possibly get screwed for the next few years if he keeps up his nagging injuries?7. DDavis- Speaking of injuries....another back who is young but was explosive when he played. Yes, I am a Texans fans and yes I do like TH but unless something changes from now until opening day, I want this kid and love the fact he is involved in the passing game (recept pts and yards). I think the Texans will be much improved and their offense could become explosive with Davis being a huge part of this.8. AGreen-hate that he fumbles, hate when I draft him he screws me and hate when I don't draft him he scews me even more. That said, I think GB's days as being a good team are over, downgrading him only because he is clearly their only option now on offense. I just can't see him getting 1800 rushing yards next year IMO.9. Alexander- always a solid #6th ranked RB but I don't like the fact that he isn't used more, why not? QB and WR play? Interesting because he is solid and should be much higher.10. THenry -- what's not to like about this # 10 RB (in my league). He should stay around the 9 - 12 top RB next year.11. Taylor - sooo many people are picking them to be the "sleeper" team. I don't know about that but what I did see was a stellar running back who 12. RWilliams- another Texas running back I like and although he is ranked lower than I like, just don't know at this point where the Fins will go this upcoming year. If they can get a legit QB then this should help him and his work load.13. Lee Suggs- just a hunch but can Cleveland really go forward with Suggs on their bench? Sorry but if Green is no longer their back or starter, I love Suggs at this spot. Will knock out of top 15 if WGreen is their starter though.14. Faulk- lost a step for sure but still plays in the Greatest Show on Turf. I don't like this team going forward and you can already see problems at the QB position. Also, being a keeper league, I don't want him as a RB1 at all, let someone else draft him because he is Marshal Marshal Marshal.15. SDavis- age, can't last a season without getting injured and will be drafted WAY higher than he should. While he is at the bottom of my list I am just not as sold going forward because of these things for keeper leagues.Here is who could/will/may get bounced out of the 12-15 spots:Minn starter -- OSmith/Moe/Bennett? If there is a clear cut winner then I'm going with himSF starter -- without a doubt, I am knocking Barlow top 10 if he is the clear cut starter on this team.Phily starter -- if Westbrook is their starter clear cut, then he will slip in 10 - 15 spotI really am not going to look at SDavis at the last spot and there will be more upside types of backs but right now, he is my last spot on the list.
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Good list, you and i think alot alike :thumbup:
 
Very early but Ill go1 Tomlinson--not much to say2 Holmes--just the age that puts him at 2.....more of 1A3 Portis---stay healthy and he could be 14 McCallister---if the tds come, he could make case for 15 A Green---hard to put him at 5 with those #s6 Lewis---hate to think he is overworked....they need a passing game bad7 Alexander---td machine8 James---lookin better every week.....was he ever this strong?9 Williams---dolphins need to do some work for him to soar up rankings again10 Faulk---hard to imagine he will give you a full season11 Taylor---yardage machine12 Henry---cant see him taking a backseat13 D Davis---when Carr played, those receptions were huge14 Barlow---cant wait to see this guy featured all season15 S Davis---see faulk

 
He wasn't used early in his career much in Baltimore - but you can't ignore that he is 31 next season. Lack of carries does not stop the aging process.He'll still be good, but I see a decline coming.
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that's what everybody said this year and look what happened!Holmes missed an entire offseason of conditioning and has supposedly taken until Fridays to fully recover from the pounding each week as a result. **** Vermeil has said that Holmes will be much healthier and even better next season.I wasn't a Holmes believer in 2003, but I won't be dumb enough to pass on him in 2004. He's as valuable a fantasy RB as Emmitt Smith was in his prime.
 
Another thing to keep in mind. I know I started this thread with my worries about Portis getting dinged due to the fact that he's a smaller back but really every back has a great chance of injury. A few years back, when Faulk and Edgerrin were going 1 and 2 in most leagues, some people took Edgerrin #1 thinking that Faulk's knees would give and that Edgerrin had no history of injury. Well, that year he tore up his knee. Also, although Lewis had a CRAZY year, he's no stranger to injury. He blew out his knee......twice already. Basically, what I'm saying is that injuries are part of football and everyone has them at one point or another. Don't downgrade a player too much because of his past injury status.

 
Also, for all you TJones pimpers, i havnt seen your top 20 list.
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Well, I'm not really pimping him, but this is where I put him (see page 1 of this thread):
8. Jones - Getting back to my earlier point, we didn't see any dramatic movement in the top tier this past year. I'm saying that won't happen again in 2004. Thomas Jones seemed to win the TB job outright with his performance down the stretch. Pittman, in all likelihood, will be gone from the scene. Jones has the skills and seems to be emerging from his 3 year coma, the Bucs will likely be better and I'm ignoring any impact from Alstott (so sue me).
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2003 was an odd year in that there were no new entrants into the top tier. I say that this was an aberration and will not happen again in 2004. While I could have put another candidate in here (e.g., Dillon, O Smith), I like Jones' situation best. The idea that it will be a reshuffling of the same 12 guys is highly unlikely.
 
I know Herd and a few others think they will take Jackson, but I'm willing to bet they trade that pick down and fill some holes.
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I'm actually off of this one. The Mock stuff changes almost by the minute for me, as Kevin Jones (Redskins) has raced up my board and Jackson continues to drop (Cowboys).I'm not up for debating those 2 guys since it will certainly change before I post another mock. I was just showing that upon further examination, I think the Bucs realize they need to get either (a) younger on Defense of (b) better on O-line, and Thomas Jones should be an affordable option for them so they can address other needs in the draft.HERD
 
I'm actually off of this one. The Mock stuff changes almost by the minute for me, as Kevin Jones (Redskins) has raced up my board and Jackson continues to drop (Cowboys).I'm not up for debating those 2 guys since it will certainly change before I post another mock. I was just showing that upon further examination, I think the Bucs realize they need to get either (a) younger on Defense of (b) better on O-line, and Thomas Jones should be an affordable option for them so they can address other needs in the draft.HERD
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Not to change the subject, but what has you thinking that the Skins will spend the # 5 on Jones?
 
not that anyone has him in the top 20, but The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Troy Hambrick will probably see his role reduced to a reserve role next season.

 
He wasn't used early in his career much in Baltimore - but you can't ignore that he is 31 next season. Lack of carries does not stop the aging process.He'll still be good, but I see a decline coming.
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that's what everybody said this year and look what happened!Holmes missed an entire offseason of conditioning and has supposedly taken until Fridays to fully recover from the pounding each week as a result. **** Vermeil has said that Holmes will be much healthier and even better next season.I wasn't a Holmes believer in 2003, but I won't be dumb enough to pass on him in 2004. He's as valuable a fantasy RB as Emmitt Smith was in his prime.
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I agree. I was down on Holmes going into this year because I believed the injury was much more serious than anyone was letting on (I couldn't get past the Chiefs taking Johnson with the No. 1 pick despite all their glaring defensive issues). Boy was I wrong about him (he went before my first pick in my league so I didn't end up passing on him). Even if he doesn't score 27 TDs again (and I don't expect him to), 20 is definitely a reasonable number given the Chiefs' offensive system and their offensive line. Also, even if he does begin to slip, is it reasonable to assume he'll suffer a massive decline in production? There's absolutely nothing to indicate that will be the case given the way he performed throughout the season and particularly in the final game where he looked terrific once again. So you're talking about a guy who had more than 2,100 total yards this season. Even if he slips to around 1,800 and drops his TDs to 18-20, that's still a tremendous fantasy season and definitely worthy of a No. 1 pick. I just can't see any way that Holmes declines to a level that would make him unworthy of being the first or second selection. Outside of being one year older there is absolutely nothing in his performance that indicates a massive decline is on the horizon.
 
not that anyone has him in the top 20, but The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Troy Hambrick will probably see his role reduced to a reserve role next season.
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I wouldn't be surprised if they went ahead with the plan to make him a full-time fullback. He could be a guy like Mike Anderson who does well in that role and vultures a handful of short-yardage TDs every year.
 
I just can't see any way that Holmes declines to a level that would make him unworthy of being the first or second selection.
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Im sure that whats people said about Faulk in 2002, well they were wrong. And unlike Holmes, Faulk didnt show any signs of a decline, like Holmes had shown from two years ago to this past year. Not to mention, Holmes is older than was Faulk. Not saying he is going to have a bad year, but to say a moderate decline is not possible is wrong.
 
Im sure that whats people said about Faulk in 2002, well they were wrong. And unlike Holmes, Faulk didnt show any signs of a decline, like Holmes had shown from two years ago to this past year. Not to mention, Holmes is older than was Faulk. Not saying he is going to have a bad year, but to say a moderate decline is not possible is wrong.
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But a moderate decline from his 2003 production would still make him a No. 1 pick. That's my point. And you can't compare Faulk in 2002 to Holmes because Faulk had missed games in each of the previous two seasons. Holmes is coming off a season in which he did not miss a game and remained productive and was highly productive in his final game of the season. Again, outside of being one year older there is absolutely nothing to suggest he's going to suffer a serious decline. Anything's possible, obviously, but there are no strong indicators beyond him being a year older that should scare anyone away from Holmes. In my opinion.
 
Note: Not including rookie RB at this point since I have no clue where they will be drafted (this is a preliminary list, correct?)My league does include .5 pts per recpt and 1 pt per 10 yards rush and rec. We are switching from a redraft to keeper so this draft will be HUGE IMO. That said, here we go...1. Deuce- in terms of age and upside, there are not many RBs who I would want to have over this kid when starting up a keeper league. Hate the system but how long will their coach be there? When this guy keeps getting auto 100 yards on a team who was not playing well ( a la LT2) you got to love that.2. Tomlinson- love the pts for reception and yards and being from Texas, followed him since his TCU days, may be a bit biased on Texas college RB but in all honesty, it's tough to pass him up. Bonus: unlike many top backs this last year, he DOESN'T FUMBLE!!!3. Holmes- Don't like the fact that he is a bit older than the top backs from last year but even in a keeper league, it lasts 3 years so until Holmes falls off the earth, it's tough to not take him top 3 or 4 IMO. Again, can you go wrong with another Texas college back?:)4. Lewis- drafted him last year in the first quarter of the second round and was the reason I took home the SB in my league so obviously I am a bit biased on this guy. The Ravens can't get any worse in their passing offense next year, can they? I like Lewis toughness, he is a bit mean, and you know will play through nagging injuries. Wish he caught 5. EdgeJames- picked him in the late first round and was nothing but freaking golden during my push for the ring and he along with Jlewis carried me. He had a great year considering his week and a month vacation and only see him as getting better. Call me nuts but I actually seeing him fall a bit to probably an early to at best mid 2nd rounder. Many people don't like him for many obvious reasons but I really have seen a change in Indy's offense to one that knows they must have Edge to carry them far.6. Portis- I really can't think of a better back I saw on the tube than Portis last year, in terms of excitement, youth, ability, quickness and sure "wow" kind of plays. BUT, I HATE the fact that more times than now, injuries and his health was an issue. Can I afford to take him on and possibly get screwed for the next few years if he keeps up his nagging injuries?7. DDavis- Speaking of injuries....another back who is young but was explosive when he played. Yes, I am a Texans fans and yes I do like TH but unless something changes from now until opening day, I want this kid and love the fact he is involved in the passing game (recept pts and yards). I think the Texans will be much improved and their offense could become explosive with Davis being a huge part of this.8. AGreen-hate that he fumbles, hate when I draft him he screws me and hate when I don't draft him he scews me even more. That said, I think GB's days as being a good team are over, downgrading him only because he is clearly their only option now on offense. I just can't see him getting 1800 rushing yards next year IMO.9. Alexander- always a solid #6th ranked RB but I don't like the fact that he isn't used more, why not? QB and WR play? Interesting because he is solid and should be much higher.10. THenry -- what's not to like about this # 10 RB (in my league). He should stay around the 9 - 12 top RB next year.11. Taylor - sooo many people are picking them to be the "sleeper" team. I don't know about that but what I did see was a stellar running back who 12. RWilliams- another Texas running back I like and although he is ranked lower than I like, just don't know at this point where the Fins will go this upcoming year. If they can get a legit QB then this should help him and his work load.13. Lee Suggs- just a hunch but can Cleveland really go forward with Suggs on their bench? Sorry but if Green is no longer their back or starter, I love Suggs at this spot. Will knock out of top 15 if WGreen is their starter though.14. Faulk- lost a step for sure but still plays in the Greatest Show on Turf. I don't like this team going forward and you can already see problems at the QB position. Also, being a keeper league, I don't want him as a RB1 at all, let someone else draft him because he is Marshal Marshal Marshal.15. SDavis- age, can't last a season without getting injured and will be drafted WAY higher than he should. While he is at the bottom of my list I am just not as sold going forward because of these things for keeper leagues.Here is who could/will/may get bounced out of the 12-15 spots:Minn starter -- OSmith/Moe/Bennett? If there is a clear cut winner then I'm going with himSF starter -- without a doubt, I am knocking Barlow top 10 if he is the clear cut starter on this team.Phily starter -- if Westbrook is their starter clear cut, then he will slip in 10 - 15 spotI really am not going to look at SDavis at the last spot and there will be more upside types of backs but right now, he is my last spot on the list.
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Good list, you and i think alot alike :thumbup:
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Thanks! Now, mind you, this is not a set in stone list and really depends on your league's scoring system and type of league, etc. Very early but so far, our lists look like winners :thumbup:
 
27 TDs isn't a good enough reason?The guy has fresh legs and should be healthier next year than he was this year. Besides, the Chiefs Oline is a huge reason for his success and they'll still be blocking for him next year.
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And New DC means (hopefully) better defense.. Priest could see the field MORE??
 
TomlinsonPriestPortisA. GreenJ. LewDeuceAlexanderFaulkRickey W.Fragile FreddyEdgeDDBarlowS. DavisHenry

 
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Good list, you and i think alot alike :thumbup:
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Oh, admit it you just like that he put Deuce #1 overall. ;)
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hurry up and change your list to have DM as your number 1! :)
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He always was and is my #1, except if i put him there, people will think i am on crack and stop reading my list right there. ;)
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Except, of course, those of us who know you from the summer days ;) I know you'll be pimp'n Deuce (and you should) and you'll be looking for faults in Priest (and you should NOT) - - I also know you have no love fro THenry, either. Your feelings about Henry probably mirror mine about Ricky - I love him b/c he's a phin, but I have that "thing" in the back of my head telling me he won't live up the fantasy billing, despite all the objective indicators.
 
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