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Ignoratio Elenchi

***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread

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SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV %18	4633	2825	61.0%19	1813	1189	65.6%20	1376	946	68.8%21	1142	786	68.8%22	966	685	70.9%23	812	595	73.3%24	626	480	76.7%25	482	371	77.0%26	380	293	77.1%27	308	244	79.2%28	229	176	76.9%29	191	150	78.5%30	335	260	77.6%
Good to see that the numbers are back to where we'd expect. I think it shows that week 1 was a fluke not a new trend.

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Still alive. 176 points every week. I think that would get me to the final 250 if I can keep it up. But no Donald Brown this week, Bush hurt...gonna die at RB. Need Gates to step it up and Dwayne Allen to keep scoring for me.

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SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV %18	4633	2825	61.0%19	1813	1189	65.6%20	1376	946	68.8%21	1142	786	68.8%22	966	685	70.9%23	812	595	73.3%24	626	480	76.7%25	482	371	77.0%26	380	293	77.1%27	308	244	79.2%28	229	176	76.9%29	191	150	78.5%30	335	260	77.6%
Wow... small roster guys took it on the chin this week. 24-30 looking optimal.

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Good to see that the numbers are back to where we'd expect. I think it shows that week 1 was a fluke not a new trend.

Here are the average scores for week 3, trending as expected. Week 1 does appear to have been an anomaly.
SIZE	AVG SCORE18	177.8219	181.0020	182.2721	184.0522	185.2523	185.6424	188.5825	187.5926	187.0927	187.3928	189.7629	186.4930	186.20

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At this rate, the large rosters are like 4+ times more likely to make the final 250 than the small rosters, which IIRC is approximately what we've seen in the past.

It's the debate that never ends, but I still think it's better to do what you can to get there and take your chances in the final three weeks. If someone could show that small rosters have a 4x better chance of winning the big money in the final 250, I might reconsider, but currently I continue to assume that any advantage they have doesn't outweigh the advantage of having a large roster during the first 13 weeks.

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Another

I gave up counting at 13 teams that were within 9.74 points of the cut line that had Tate count for their team. Didn't really look to see how many of them would have dropped below though.

I am one of the teams that got dropped:

Score 161.80

Cutoff 161.90

There needs to be another emoticon to picture what I am thinking. :wall: is not even close....

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Another

I gave up counting at 13 teams that were within 9.74 points of the cut line that had Tate count for their team. Didn't really look to see how many of them would have dropped below though.

I am one of the teams that got dropped:

Score 161.80

Cutoff 161.90

There needs to be another emoticon to picture what I am thinking. :wall: is not even close....

Sorry BtR :(

-QG

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With the bumped up scoring, I'm thinking bye management may be even more of a factor than before. In the past, you could load up on early bye week players and still have a level of comfort that you could sneak through. Higher cut lines could wreck that strategy.

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Now, this isn't a knock on FURIOUS STYLES' team, but in case you were wondering if this contest is all luck.

Second-highest scoring team this week:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ben Roethlisberger $18 22.65 25.75 44.00 bye

Andy Dalton $14 10.15 32.30 34.00 bye

Joe Flacco $11 26.85 15.60 35.40 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ray Rice $33 24.30 21.20 26.00 bye

Jamaal Charles $24 8.70 5.20 40.80 bye

Reggie Bush $20 17.50 34.70 7.20 bye

Jonathan Dwyer $4 7.40 5.00 1.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Calvin Johnson $29 17.10 17.40 32.40 bye

Larry Fitzgerald $25 10.30 1.40 26.40 bye

Dwayne Bowe $17 8.30 30.20 14.90 bye

Antonio Brown $17 11.80 15.80 21.70 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dustin Keller $10 2.20 0.00 0.00 bye

Heath Miller $7 17.00 12.40 30.00 bye

Todd Heap $3 7.70 13.70 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Robbie Gould $3 12.00 6.00 15.00 bye

Lawrence Tynes $3 5.00 17.00 24.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pittsburgh Steelers $5 4.00 4.00 3.00 bye

Carolina Panthers $3 2.00 11.00 2.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 149.55 205.70 263.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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You should try and format FS's entry - it makes it look like all of his byes are this week :D

His defenses are totally slacking btw.

-QG

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You should try and format FS's entry - it makes it look like all of his byes are this week :D

His defenses are totally slacking btw.

-QG

That would require effort :yes:

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Now, this isn't a knock on FURIOUS STYLES' team, but in case you were wondering if this contest is all luck.

Second-highest scoring team this week:

I don't think I understand the point you're making here. Can you elaborate?
His gigantic point total is mostly due to Roethlisberger, Miller, and Tynes. Hardly numbers anyone could predict from players of this caliber.

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How am I still in this with Aaron Rodgers, Fred Jackson, Dion Lewis, Rashard Mendenhall, Evan Royster, Kenny Britt, Justin Blackmon, and Aaron Hernandez? Well at least I get one more week of fun.

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Now, this isn't a knock on FURIOUS STYLES' team, but in case you were wondering if this contest is all luck.

Second-highest scoring team this week:

I don't think I understand the point you're making here. Can you elaborate?
His gigantic point total is mostly due to Roethlisberger, Miller, and Tynes. Hardly numbers anyone could predict from players of this caliber.
Huh, I wouldn't say it's "mostly" due to those three. He also got 20+ from Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. But I do agree that in general, in order to come out on top you need to get points from unexpected places.

I guess I was curious why you singled out this entry specifically. The #1 socring team this week got equivalent points from Roethlisberger, Miller, and Succop this week, so I guess I was thrown off by you posting the #2 overall team to make this point.

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That would require effort :yes:

This isn't a complaint, but all you have to do is put it inside the "[ code][ /code]" tags (without the spaces), and it will preserve the space formatting. It's pretty simple.

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Now, this isn't a knock on FURIOUS STYLES' team, but in case you were wondering if this contest is all luck.

Second-highest scoring team this week:

I don't think I understand the point you're making here. Can you elaborate?
His gigantic point total is mostly due to Roethlisberger, Miller, and Tynes. Hardly numbers anyone could predict from players of this caliber.
Huh, I wouldn't say it's "mostly" due to those three. He also got 20+ from Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. But I do agree that in general, in order to come out on top you need to get points from unexpected places.

I guess I was curious why you singled out this entry specifically. The #1 socring team this week got equivalent points from Roethlisberger, Miller, and Succop this week, so I guess I was thrown off by you posting the #2 overall team to make this point.

:thumbup:

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That would require effort :yes:

This isn't a complaint, but all you have to do is put it inside the "[ code][ /code]" tags (without the spaces), and it will preserve the space formatting. It's pretty simple.
Actually, I've been here for years and never tried that. Thanks!

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Ignoratio, it seems that the early thinning of the short rosters pre-bye weeks is actually a little steeper this year than last. Maybe I'm misremembering it though. Do you have that data readily available? If not, don't worry about it. Nothing more than idle curiosity on my part.

Thus far my only non-contributors are (24 man roster): Blackmon (looking like a complete turd of a pick), Driver (nothing more than a flier to begin with), Britt (knew he would be a few weeks before he contributed), and Little.

Ahhh Greg Little. I knew better, but the lure of a bajillion targets a game was too much to resist. RTSports did a preseason blurb on why he was a sleeper:

"Little struggles with drops and isn't a great route runner but he is the most talented receiver for the Browns. He is a big-play threat capable of the big game. He should lead that team in targets at receiver and has plenty of upside for a big second season."

So aside from not being able to run routes or catch the ball, he's really good. Maybe I'm missing something, but if a WR can't do those 2 things what else matters? And yes, I had him late last year in 2 leagues due to injuries to my real WRs, so my bitterness runs deep.

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253 pts and my highest weekly finish ever in 6 yrs of doing this!http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/101000.phpHulkamania lives forever, brotha!

I really like that team
Heh. Thanks......this team is by far the most stud heavy I've ever gone, with the deflation of stud prices this year. I'm regretting Blackmon as a choice, and in retrospect, Taiwan Jones handcuffing McFadden was probably a waste of $2. Right at the deadline, I swapped out Vernon Davis and Dwayne Allen for Gonzo and Chandler, and haven't looked back. I was somewhat surprised to see that when I put it into the querier, I am alone in the 5 man combo of Matt Ryan, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Julio Jones, and Megatron...If everyone stays healthy, my litmus test is Week 7. If I can make it past that, I feel really good about the rest of the way. But that bye week will be a doozy. The contest has gotten more fun over the years as I've come to the realization this contest is about 20% smart selections, 80% dumb-### luck. Luck that your horses don't get injured, and 2nd dose of luck that they perform as expected, 3rd dose of luck that your playing studs pick up the slack on your critical bye weeks, and then of course to win it all you need a crazy finish the last 3 weeks.

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My only real "dead money" is David Wilson @ $9Who ya'll got? Players under $5 don't count imo.

Fred Jackson, David Wilson, Justin Blackmon & Antonio Gates. I expect FJax & Gates to contribute down the line, but I'm kicking myself over Wilson and Blackmon.

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My only real "dead money" is David Wilson @ $9Who ya'll got? Players under $5 don't count imo.

I don't know if it is completely dead, but would like to have Blackmon @ $7 and Steve Smith @ $5 back. Hernandez's $23 could have been spent elsewhere - but hopefully I can last until he comes back. Though my roster only has 5 players in the $5-$14 range. Luck, Kendall Hunter and Turbin being the others.

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My only real "dead money" is David Wilson @ $9

Who ya'll got? Players under $5 don't count imo.

No points:

Matt Flynn--Not sure how I didn't do something else here. That's what happens when you don't check back in the last two weeks I guess

Shane Vereen--If he ever gets healthy, the Pats will likely use him. Not holding my breath

Rashard Mendenhall--If I make it to week 5, he should get the job. Redman/Dwyer don't impress

LaMichael James--Has he even been active yet?

Jacoby Ford--Whoops

Mike Thomas--Double Whoops

Fred Davis--Even his big week 3 didn't count. Like the fact that he's on the upswing.

Prater--His time will come

Oakland D--Their time will not

Every week:

Spiller--Need to overcome his injury

Harvin--Super solid

Lloyd--Steady

M. Bennett--Everyone's favorite TE sleeper.

Like my uniqueness (no one has my top 3 RB's), but hate the fact that I didn't give this roster a once over before the season started. The 14 bucks or so of dead weight I have would have been nice somewhere else.

Team

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My only real "dead money" is David Wilson @ $9Who ya'll got? Players under $5 don't count imo.

Justin Blackmon is the only 'dead money' that I expected more out of at this point.Harry Douglas and Taiwan Jones are $2/$3 handcuffs that I haven't had place for me yet, but everyone else on my roster has picked up some slack and done some heavy lifting.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/101000.php

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Ignoratio, it seems that the early thinning of the short rosters pre-bye weeks is actually a little steeper this year than last. Maybe I'm misremembering it though. Do you have that data readily available? If not, don't worry about it. Nothing more than idle curiosity on my part.Thus far my only non-contributors are (24 man roster): Blackmon (looking like a complete turd of a pick), Driver (nothing more than a flier to begin with), Britt (knew he would be a few weeks before he contributed), and Little.Ahhh Greg Little. I knew better, but the lure of a bajillion targets a game was too much to resist. RTSports did a preseason blurb on why he was a sleeper: "Little struggles with drops and isn't a great route runner but he is the most talented receiver for the Browns. He is a big-play threat capable of the big game. He should lead that team in targets at receiver and has plenty of upside for a big second season."So aside from not being able to run routes or catch the ball, he's really good. Maybe I'm missing something, but if a WR can't do those 2 things what else matters? And yes, I had him late last year in 2 leagues due to injuries to my real WRs, so my bitterness runs deep.

As a diehard Browns fan ---- I empathize with your pain. One thing Greg Little does do amazingly well - and this will be of absolutely no use to you - is some phenomenal downfield blocking. All 3 of T-Richardsons touchdowns this season are due in no small part to this. Especially his two TD runs.

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Ignoratio, it seems that the early thinning of the short rosters pre-bye weeks is actually a little steeper this year than last. Maybe I'm misremembering it though. Do you have that data readily available? If not, don't worry about it. Nothing more than idle curiosity on my part.Thus far my only non-contributors are (24 man roster): Blackmon (looking like a complete turd of a pick), Driver (nothing more than a flier to begin with), Britt (knew he would be a few weeks before he contributed), and Little.Ahhh Greg Little. I knew better, but the lure of a bajillion targets a game was too much to resist. RTSports did a preseason blurb on why he was a sleeper: "Little struggles with drops and isn't a great route runner but he is the most talented receiver for the Browns. He is a big-play threat capable of the big game. He should lead that team in targets at receiver and has plenty of upside for a big second season."So aside from not being able to run routes or catch the ball, he's really good. Maybe I'm missing something, but if a WR can't do those 2 things what else matters? And yes, I had him late last year in 2 leagues due to injuries to my real WRs, so my bitterness runs deep.

As a diehard Browns fan ---- I empathize with your pain. One thing Greg Little does do amazingly well - and this will be of absolutely no use to you - is some phenomenal downfield blocking. All 3 of T-Richardsons touchdowns this season are due in no small part to this. Especially his two TD runs.
Since he blocks this comparison isn't exactly right, but it's close. As near as I can tell, Greg Little is this guy:http://i.ytimg.com/vi/ozGNfNsnX6g/0.jpg

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Ignoratio, it seems that the early thinning of the short rosters pre-bye weeks is actually a little steeper this year than last. Maybe I'm misremembering it though. Do you have that data readily available? If not, don't worry about it. Nothing more than idle curiosity on my part.

It's all on my work laptop and I don't plan on opening that again until Thursday morning, but I'll try to remember to take a look then.

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I haven't used Gabbert yet as my QB3 ($6) but I don't consider him dead money.

Kevin Smith at $12 looks like incredibly dead money :bag:

Those they are under the $5 threshold Taiwan Jones and Evan Royster look sketchy.

I'm in the Blackmon bunch as well $7 and I think that Ryan Broyles is a waste of $2. I think Harry Douglas will sneak in to my lineup a couple of times.

-QG

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The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.

My 2 cents...

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We have also had a few big names get injured early (% owned):

Stafford (12.2 %)

Bradshaw (2.9)

Forte (5.8)

F Jackson (11.7)

S Jackson (8.6)

Mathews (0.6)

Collie (4.5)

Garcon (13.8)

Jennings (5.4)

Maclin (5.8)

Nicks (3.3)

Hernandez (11.1)

Keller (3.5)

No one with huge ownership numbers, but it is going to effect the smaller teams more if one of their main guys is out. Throw in the duds that some other studs have had over the last couple weeks and it equals disaster for the smaller teams.

I see this trend continuing until most of the bye weeks are finished. After that, the smaller teams left will be the ones who picked guys who are healthy and performing. My prediction is that scores will go back to looking more like week one for weeks 9-13. Now the trick is getting your small roster to that point of the season.

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The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.My 2 cents...

I expected higher cut lines, but they seem to be crazily higher this year. This can't be due solely to .5ppr increase in RB's. I dont have the data from last year, but weren't QB touchdowns worth 4 pts in years past instead of this years 6? I could see that plus the PPR for RB's getting close, but not entirely all of this huge increase. I am insanely curious to see what this does for the bye week scores. 115 used to be the safe zone those weeks.

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We have also had a few big names get injured early (% owned):Stafford (12.2 %)Bradshaw (2.9)Forte (5.8)F Jackson (11.7)S Jackson (8.6)Mathews (0.6)Collie (4.5)Garcon (13.8)Jennings (5.4)Maclin (5.8)Nicks (3.3)Hernandez (11.1)Keller (3.5)No one with huge ownership numbers, but it is going to effect the smaller teams more if one of their main guys is out. Throw in the duds that some other studs have had over the last couple weeks and it equals disaster for the smaller teams.I see this trend continuing until most of the bye weeks are finished. After that, the smaller teams left will be the ones who picked guys who are healthy and performing. My prediction is that scores will go back to looking more like week one for weeks 9-13. Now the trick is getting your small roster to that point of the season.

Don't forget :Spiller likely out for a week or two could cause some ripplesand defensive injuries to Jets defense (Revis) and Redskins (Orakpo, Carriker) will not only hurt teams that selected those defenses but perhaps provide a bump to offensive skill players playing those defenses

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The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.My 2 cents...

I expected higher cut lines, but they seem to be crazily higher this year. This can't be due solely to .5ppr increase in RB's. I dont have the data from last year, but weren't QB touchdowns worth 4 pts in years past instead of this years 6? I could see that plus the PPR for RB's getting close, but not entirely all of this huge increase. I am insanely curious to see what this does for the bye week scores. 115 used to be the safe zone those weeks.
If I had to make a guess....I'm thinking the cut line wont drop a lot in week 4 (150ish), but drop off fairly deep weeks 5-7 (between 120-130 points), then slowly increase each week 8-11 until we are back around 150 points.

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The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.My 2 cents...

I expected higher cut lines, but they seem to be crazily higher this year. This can't be due solely to .5ppr increase in RB's. I dont have the data from last year, but weren't QB touchdowns worth 4 pts in years past instead of this years 6? I could see that plus the PPR for RB's getting close, but not entirely all of this huge increase. I am insanely curious to see what this does for the bye week scores. 115 used to be the safe zone those weeks.
Some other options...1. The herd is getting smarter.2. Stud pricing dropped.

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The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.My 2 cents...

I expected higher cut lines, but they seem to be crazily higher this year. This can't be due solely to .5ppr increase in RB's. I dont have the data from last year, but weren't QB touchdowns worth 4 pts in years past instead of this years 6? I could see that plus the PPR for RB's getting close, but not entirely all of this huge increase. I am insanely curious to see what this does for the bye week scores. 115 used to be the safe zone those weeks.
Nope...scoring this year is identical except for RB receptions. I think the player valuations have more to do with it, people have more good players this year.

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The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.

My 2 cents...

I expected higher cut lines, but they seem to be crazily higher this year. This can't be due solely to .5ppr increase in RB's.

I dont have the data from last year, but weren't QB touchdowns worth 4 pts in years past instead of this years 6? I could see that plus the PPR for RB's getting close, but not entirely all of this huge increase.

I am insanely curious to see what this does for the bye week scores. 115 used to be the safe zone those weeks.

Here's what the scoring was from last year:

Scoring:

Scoring will be calculated to two decimal places (no rounding).

Player Scoring (QB, RB, WR, TE)

Passing TDs = 6 points

Interceptions Thrown = -1 points (NOW -2 points in 2012)

Rushing TD = 6 points

Receiving TD = 6 points

Passing Yardage = .05 points per yard

Rushing Yardage = .10 points per yard

Receiving Yardage = .10 points per yard

Receptions for RB = 0.5 points (NOW 1.0 points in 2012)

Receptions for WR = 1.0 points

Receptions for TE = 1.5 points

No points scored for 2 point conversions

Kicker Scoring (PK)

Field Goal Made (0-29 yards) = 3 points

Field Goal Made (30-39 yards) = 4 points

Field Goal Made (40-49 yards) = 5 points

Field Goal Made (50+ yards) = 6 points

Extra Point Made = 1 point

Def/ST Scoring (Def/ST)

Sack = 1 point

Interception = 2 points

Fumble Recovery = 2 points

Safety = 2 points

Defensive/ST TD = 6 points (Kickoff return, punt return, blocked FG return, blocked punt return, interception return, fumble recovery return, etc. Note: ALL fumble recoveries and non-offensive TDs will count)

*******************************************************************************************************************************

So the only real positive change I see is the 0.5 increase in RB PPR. The only other dynamic is if the TE scoring is increasing based on more usage of TE in the game.

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Players that haven't scored for me:

Fred Jackson

Peyton Hillis

Taiwan Jones

Justin Blackmon

Donald Driver

Eddie Royal

Matt Prater

Kansas City Chiefs

The only big regret so far is Hillis - but I can't imagine he'll be a waste all season. Blackmon's been terrible, but I could see him picking up a bit.

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The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.My 2 cents...

I expected higher cut lines, but they seem to be crazily higher this year. This can't be due solely to .5ppr increase in RB's. I dont have the data from last year, but weren't QB touchdowns worth 4 pts in years past instead of this years 6? I could see that plus the PPR for RB's getting close, but not entirely all of this huge increase. I am insanely curious to see what this does for the bye week scores. 115 used to be the safe zone those weeks.
Some other options...1. The herd is getting smarter.2. Stud pricing dropped.
I think its #2

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My only real "dead money" is David Wilson @ $9

Who ya'll got? Players under $5 don't count imo.

Every week Starters:

[*]QB: Fitzpatrick ($11)

[*]TE: Rudolph ($11)

[*]PK: Hanson ($4) -- Seems to be money every year

Dead weight: (Meaning never used)

[*]QB: Freeman ($16) :X

[*]QB: Tannehill ($4)

[*]RB: Mendenhall ($4) - Bought for the long haul

[*]RB: Royster ($3)

[*]WR: Brown ($6) -- Not unexpected, I picked him up for the last half of the season

[*]WR: Jean ($3)

[*]WR: Broyles ($2)

[*]TE: Gates ($20) -- I still have hope here :bag:

[*]TE: Kendricks ($9) :X

[*]PK: Henery ($4)

[*]PK: Suisham ($3)

Usage: (Meaning I have used the players at least once to contribute to my score)

[*]QB: 1 of 3 used ($20 wasted)

[*]RB: 4 of 6 used ($7 wasted)

[*]WR: 8 of 11 used $11 wasted)

[*]TE: 1 of 3 used ($29 wasted)

[*]PK: 1 of 3 used ($7 wasted)

[*]TD: 3 of 3 used

[*]OVERALL: 18 of 29 used to date ($74 wasted to date)

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