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Ignoratio Elenchi

***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread

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Actual live data is $1995 per year.

That's just one site, and they're not even affiliated with the NFL

NFLData.com is an unofficial and independent source of information not affiliated with the National Football League (NFL), the NFLPA or any other affiliates. For official statistics, please visit NFL.com

For the past few years, (I believe it was) Organized Chaos put up a real time scoring app, and charged a paltry $2.00 for it. (Easily the best $2.00 I spent all year.)

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I was told to look for it on Aug 7

By whom?
Dodds
:pickle: Then it's sure to be up by the 17th!

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Actually I hope they wait a bit. The closer to kickoff the more it's a contest of skill v. a contest of picking the backups of guys injured in the pre-season.

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Actually I hope they wait a bit. The closer to kickoff the more it's a contest of skill v. a contest of picking the backups of guys injured in the pre-season.

Sure it is bass... Harder to change your team 200+ times when you have limited time available! :excited:

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:blackdot:

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2 User(s) are reading this topic2 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous usersCaptain Quinoa, Doug Drinen

The Turk is a Lurk-in :)-QG

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For the past few years, (I believe it was) Organized Chaos put up a real time scoring app, and charged a paltry $2.00 for it. (Easily the best $2.00 I spent all year.)

Yes, I put up semi-live scoring 3 of the last 4 years... I will see if I can do it again this year, we'll see though. I am much busier this year then in previous years. Honestly, I hope that FBG does this eventually, it's a lot of work to keep it up and work through the off stats etc.Also, for those asking about previous years numbers, here you go.http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/2008.phphttp://ffltools.com/fbg35k/2009.phphttp://ffltools.com/fbg35k/2010.phphttp://ffltools.com/fbg35k/2011.php

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A 2012 contest rules page is created, although not linked on the main page yet (I manually edited the URL). 18-30 player rosters, $250 cap.

Its finally on its way!! :thumbup:

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Kevin Smith's stock has risen quickly. A week ago I was sure he was going to be a $3-$5 player. He is more expensive than LeShoure! I'd certainly draft him ahead of LeShoure but most people don't...

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This year... this is the year.

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/10 - $31RB - Arian Foster - HOU/8 - $34RB - Ben Tate - HOU/8 - $12WR - Calvin Johnson - DET/5 - $29WR - Eddie Royal - SD/7 - $2WR - Kyle Williams - SF/9 - $2TE - Jimmy Graham - NO/6 - $29TE - Rob Gronkowski - NE/9 - $28PK - David Akers - SF/9 - $6PK - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK/5 - $6PK - Garrett Hartley - NO/6 - $6PK - Stephen Gostkowski - NE/9 - $6PK - Dan Bailey - DAL/5 - $5PK - Phil Dawson - CLE/10 - $3PK - Ryan Succop - KC/7 - $3PK - Dan Carpenter - MIA/7 - $3PK - Matt Prater - DEN/7 - $3PK - Josh Brown - NYJ/9 - $3PK - Rian Lindell - BUF/8 - $3PK - Blair Walsh - MIN/11 - $3PK - Jay Feely - ARI/10 - $3PK - Shaun Suisham - PIT/4 - $3PK - Neil Rackers - WAS/10 - $3PK - Justin Medlock - CAR/6 - $3PK - Connor Barth - TB/5 - $3PK - Greg Zuerlein - STL/9 - $3PK - Lawrence Tynes - NYG/11 - $3PK - Josh Scobee - JAX/6 - $3PK - Mike Nugent - CIN/8 - $3TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/4 - $3

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Here we go....

30 players @ $250

[*]3 QB

[*]7 RB

[*]11 WR

[*]3 TE

[*]3 PK

[*]3 TD

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2.5 hours at this already and can't put it down.

QB 2 @ $34

RB 6 @ $71

WR 7 @ $ 80

TE 4 @ $45

K 3 @ $ 9

D 3 @ $ 11

Total 25 @ 250

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Let's not do this.
Am I missing something iggy?
I was only being half-serious. There's a reason we prefer that bye weeks aren't displayed on the entry form, and it's better not to remind people about them. A lot of people seem to forget to take them into consideration, which is better for the rest of us. But most people who hang out in this thread probably don't have that issue, so it's not really that big a deal to post them here. More of a running joke than a serious concern.

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Let's not do this.
Am I missing something iggy?
there are a lot of rubes who screw up their bye weeks

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Here we go....

30 players @ $250

[*]3 QB

[*]7 RB

[*]11 WR

[*]3 TE

[*]3 PK

[*]3 TD

I am still trying to find the value of kickers and defense...

[*]3 QB

[*]6 RB

[*]8 WR

[*]4 TE

[*]4 PK

[*]4 TD

30 @ 250

Last year I think I went 4/6/9/5/3/3

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Let's not do this.
Am I missing something iggy?
I was only being half-serious. There's a reason we prefer that bye weeks aren't displayed on the entry form, and it's better not to remind people about them. A lot of people seem to forget to take them into consideration, which is better for the rest of us. But most people who hang out in this thread probably don't have that issue, so it's not really that big a deal to post them here. More of a running joke than a serious concern.
Got it. Post edited. ;)

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Revised cut lines for weeks 1-5 will weed out 50% of the entries early on. :excited:

They're actually less steep than last year (i.e. more teams will make it through week 5 this year than in previous years). Perhaps they wanted to keep more people interested a little longer.

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Revised cut lines for weeks 1-5 will weed out 50% of the entries early on. :excited:

They're actually less steep than last year (i.e. more teams will make it through week 5 this year than in previous years). Perhaps they wanted to keep more people interested a little longer.
I am assuming they are anticipating more entries this year.

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Revised cut lines for weeks 1-5 will weed out 50% of the entries early on. :excited:

They're actually less steep than last year (i.e. more teams will make it through week 5 this year than in previous years). Perhaps they wanted to keep more people interested a little longer.
I am assuming they are anticipating more entries this year.
This is probably it considering the "free" subscriptions they're doing with FanDuel.

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I almost forgot how fun and frustrating this can be. Already been through dozens of iterations, and the real values don't even emerge until we're well into the preseason.

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I almost forgot how fun and frustrating this can be. Already been through dozens of iterations, and the real values don't even emerge until we're well into the preseason.

Yeah, as much fun as it is to tinker, I'm thinking about just letting it be for a while until we get some real info (at least as real as pre-season football can give you). There's nothing like finally getting something you're happy with and then hearing some $10 RB is now on top of the depth chart...and I don't have him...yet.But seriously, the strategy for selecting RB's always drives me crazy. I can never settle on what I think the correct combination of stud, solid guys, sleepers and long shots should be.

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But seriously, the strategy for selecting RB's always drives me crazy. I can never settle on what I think the correct combination of stud, solid guys, sleepers and long shots should be.

:goodposting: I've been playing this contest for at least five years now, and I'm not convinced I have any better idea how to do this than I did five years ago. That's the beauty of it.

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Funny... it's the RBs who kill me year after year. I'm not even sure I'm not using the right amount of $$ -- I just never seem to choose well for the first half of the year. Second half I have guys going off, but I'm typically out by then.

ETA: using only the scores that counted last year... my average weekly points at each position/total $$ spent at each position:

QB - .61

RB - .34 (oof)

WR - .84

TE - 1.04

K - 1.46

Def - .94

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I think there is a ton of randomness involved, but I don't see myself maxing a roster. The highest I've had is 21 players on a team. Seems really tantalizing to take big named guys

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But seriously, the strategy for selecting RB's always drives me crazy. I can never settle on what I think the correct combination of stud, solid guys, sleepers and long shots should be.

:goodposting: I've been playing this contest for at least five years now, and I'm not convinced I have any better idea how to do this than I did five years ago. That's the beauty of it.
I am the other way. I think I get better at this every year. I am working on a computer program to optimize my roster this season.

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Funny... it's the RBs who kill me year after year. I'm not even sure I'm not using the right amount of $$ -- I just never seem to choose well for the first half of the year. Second half I have guys going off, but I'm typically out by then.ETA: using only the scores that counted last year... my average weekly points at each position/total $$ spent at each position:QB - .61RB - .34 (oof)WR - .84TE - 1.04K - 1.46Def - .94

Looks like you need to draft more kickers this year to maximize your advantage.

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But seriously, the strategy for selecting RB's always drives me crazy. I can never settle on what I think the correct combination of stud, solid guys, sleepers and long shots should be.

:goodposting: I've been playing this contest for at least five years now, and I'm not convinced I have any better idea how to do this than I did five years ago. That's the beauty of it.
I am the other way. I think I get better at this every year. I am working on a computer program to optimize my roster this season.
Curious what your algorithm would look like to optimize the roster. I've considered doing the same, but can't come up with a way to fairly value the players. What I mean is, I can't find a way to capture the week to week variance that is the advantage of having a larger roster.

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Funny... it's the RBs who kill me year after year. I'm not even sure I'm not using the right amount of $$ -- I just never seem to choose well for the first half of the year. Second half I have guys going off, but I'm typically out by then.ETA: using only the scores that counted last year... my average weekly points at each position/total $$ spent at each position:QB - .61RB - .34 (oof)WR - .84TE - 1.04K - 1.46Def - .94

Looks like you need to draft more kickers this year to maximize your advantage.
:goodposting: You can get the top 22 kickers for a TOTAL of $88. It's a no-brainer IMO. The winning roster this year is going to look something like this:
QB	M Stafford                    	DET	$26RB	D McFadden                    	OAK	$26RB	A Peterson                    	MIN	$21WR	L Fitzgerald                  	ARI	$25WR	G Jennings                    	GB	$21WR	M Austin                      	DAL	$20TE	V Davis                       	SF	$17PK	D Akers                       	SF	$6PK	S Janikowski                  	OAK	$6PK	G Hartley                     	NO	$6PK	S Gostkowski                  	NE	$6PK	D Bailey                      	DAL	$5PK	M Crosby                      	GB	$5PK	N Kaeding                     	SD	$4PK	A Henery                      	PHI	$4PK	J Hanson                      	DET	$4PK	M Bryant                      	ATL	$4PK	B Cundiff                     	BAL	$4PK	R Bullock                     	HOU	$4PK	R Bironas                     	TEN	$3PK	S Hauschka                    	SEA	$3PK	R Gould                       	CHI	$3PK	A Vinatieri                   	IND	$3PK	P Dawson                      	CLE	$3PK	R Succop                      	KC	$3PK	D Carpenter                   	MIA	$3PK	M Prater                      	DEN	$3PK	J Brown                       	NYJ	$3PK	R Lindell                     	BUF	$3TD	49ers                         	SF	$6

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But seriously, the strategy for selecting RB's always drives me crazy. I can never settle on what I think the correct combination of stud, solid guys, sleepers and long shots should be.

:goodposting: I've been playing this contest for at least five years now, and I'm not convinced I have any better idea how to do this than I did five years ago. That's the beauty of it.
I am the other way. I think I get better at this every year. I am working on a computer program to optimize my roster this season.
This is where I was like two years ago. I've since concluded that, while it's a lot of fun, it's mostly a fruitless exercise.

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I'm glad we seem to have decided on one thread for this so I'll repost this from the other thread. :)

Is it just me or do the obvious choices for cheap RBs and WRs really stand out this year?

My only changes so far have been players above the $10 price tag.

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I'm glad we seem to have decided on one thread for this so I'll repost this from the other thread. :) Is it just me or do the obvious choices for cheap RBs and WRs really stand out this year?My only changes so far have been players above the $10 price tag.

I agree. I think I could actually create a roster where all my RB/WR's were $15 or less and be very happy with it. Like I said before, my struggles in this contest mainly come from trying to determine the optimal mix of Stud vs Solid vs. Breakout Potential vs. Long Shots.

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Funny... it's the RBs who kill me year after year. I'm not even sure I'm not using the right amount of $$ -- I just never seem to choose well for the first half of the year. Second half I have guys going off, but I'm typically out by then.ETA: using only the scores that counted last year... my average weekly points at each position/total $$ spent at each position:QB - .61RB - .34 (oof)WR - .84TE - 1.04K - 1.46Def - .94

Looks like you need to draft more kickers this year to maximize your advantage.
:goodposting: You can get the top 22 kickers for a TOTAL of $88. It's a no-brainer IMO. The winning roster this year is going to look something like this:
QB	M Stafford                    	DET	$26RB	D McFadden                    	OAK	$26RB	A Peterson                    	MIN	$21WR	L Fitzgerald                  	ARI	$25WR	G Jennings                    	GB	$21WR	M Austin                      	DAL	$20TE	V Davis                       	SF	$17PK	D Akers                       	SF	$6PK	S Janikowski                  	OAK	$6PK	G Hartley                     	NO	$6PK	S Gostkowski                  	NE	$6PK	D Bailey                      	DAL	$5PK	M Crosby                      	GB	$5PK	N Kaeding                     	SD	$4PK	A Henery                      	PHI	$4PK	J Hanson                      	DET	$4PK	M Bryant                      	ATL	$4PK	B Cundiff                     	BAL	$4PK	R Bullock                     	HOU	$4PK	R Bironas                     	TEN	$3PK	S Hauschka                    	SEA	$3PK	R Gould                       	CHI	$3PK	A Vinatieri                   	IND	$3PK	P Dawson                      	CLE	$3PK	R Succop                      	KC	$3PK	D Carpenter                   	MIA	$3PK	M Prater                      	DEN	$3PK	J Brown                       	NYJ	$3PK	R Lindell                     	BUF	$3TD	49ers                         	SF	$6
After reading through all 70+ pages from last years thread, I'm not totally convinced of the many kicker strategy. I'm going to try the many kicker/defense combo. I think 8 kickers @ 8 defenses, at $3 each for $48 total, then 14 über-studs ad the obligatory $3 RB & WR, should be a good start.

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After reading through all 70+ pages from last years thread, I'm not totally convinced of the many kicker strategy. I'm going to try the many kicker/defense combo. I think 8 kickers @ 8 defenses, at $3 each for $48 total, then 14 über-studs ad the obligatory $3 RB & WR, should be a good start.

Fortune favors the bold, my friend. Go 22 kickers or go home imo.

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But seriously, the strategy for selecting RB's always drives me crazy. I can never settle on what I think the correct combination of stud, solid guys, sleepers and long shots should be.

:goodposting: I've been playing this contest for at least five years now, and I'm not convinced I have any better idea how to do this than I did five years ago. That's the beauty of it.
I am the other way. I think I get better at this every year. I am working on a computer program to optimize my roster this season.
Curious what your algorithm would look like to optimize the roster. I've considered doing the same, but can't come up with a way to fairly value the players. What I mean is, I can't find a way to capture the week to week variance that is the advantage of having a larger roster.
I am simulating season stats for every player. I will probably do something like 10000 simulated seasons and the algorithm will pick the roster that does the best on average. I still am not entirely sure what the best is either. Some combination of a good last 3 weeks and not going near the cut line. Generating random seasons is where a lot of the work comes in. The basis is my ranking of each player and the expected weekly score and weekly variance based on that ranking. I have generated regression equations based on past seasons for these. I am currently working on a random factor that will allow a players ranking to deviate from my projections as well. I am currently allowing for injury chance. I am trying to couple this with increasing the score of the backup but don't have that coded yet.

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this is my first year. will prices change through the preseason?

if mjd signs, will his value go up and r jennigns go down?

if 3rd string rb joebob wins the starting job, will he jump from $3 to $15 or anything like that?

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this is my first year. will prices change through the preseason?if mjd signs, will his value go up and r jennigns go down?if 3rd string rb joebob wins the starting job, will he jump from $3 to $15 or anything like that?

Nothing will change. The players and prices are set in stone.

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this is my first year. will prices change through the preseason?if mjd signs, will his value go up and r jennigns go down?if 3rd string rb joebob wins the starting job, will he jump from $3 to $15 or anything like that?

Nothing will change. The players and prices are set in stone.
Remember last year there was a position change. Rb-Wr

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this is my first year. will prices change through the preseason?if mjd signs, will his value go up and r jennigns go down?if 3rd string rb joebob wins the starting job, will he jump from $3 to $15 or anything like that?

Nothing will change. The players and prices are set in stone.
Remember last year there was a position change. Rb-Wr
That wasn't meant to happen. Dodds had changed something in a master database and it accidentally changed McCluster in the contest. He changed it back after he saw what happened.

I changed our master database last night without any regard that this would change the contest. I do consider McCluster a RB now, but I changed it back to WR as we don't want to mess with the contest (and all the databases are linked).

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I'm only going to tweak my team 10 times, then I am done.

(Ehhhhhhh...who am I kidding? I'm going to tweak it 10,000 times)

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I always hate my roster the first few weeks of August, then it slowly turns tolerable, and occasionally I lurve it. So right now, I'm still :hot: .

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I think Brett Favre should be on the list for a $1. Who knows? He might come back.

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I think Brett Favre should be on the list for a $1. Who knows? He might come back.

It kills me that I still have $1 left, but even if he were added I don't think I could spend it on him.

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