What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

Ahmad Rashad at 31 = 69 for 1095 15.9 avg. - his second best year. His best was at 30 so I guess that is why he perceives the start of the decline at 31.

Jerry Rice at 31 = 98 1503 15.3

Reggie Wayne at 31 = 100 1264 12.6

Marvin Harrison at 31 = 94 1272 13.5

Terrell Owens at 31 = 77 1200 15.6

Cris Carter at 31 = 96 1163 12.1

So it appears that there may still be life in old bones. I am reminded of Mark Twain's famous retort that "reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

If I owned Roddy I wouldn't panic yet. But since I don't own him I hope Rashad is correct ;-)

 
Okay, the moment I'm sure you all have been waiting for...

QB - 3 for $34. While it was only preseason, it was clear that the Falcons change in OC is going to have a great beneficial effect for Ryan. It's a little dangerous of course but that division also shapes up as one that will have a fair number of shootout type games. I'm a 3 QB guy, I just hate the risk of injury too much to go with just 2. Locker seems to have the goods and is good value as a #2. Gabbert's at least talking the talk and as a cheap flier was worh the risk (and I figured less would take him that the $4 Tannehill).

Matt Ryan $19

Jake Locker $9

Blaine Gabbert $6

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RB - 6 for $73. I usually roll with a group similar to this. Hope I don't regret picking Foster with his injury issues. I grabbed Lynch in place of Doug Martin (and spent the additional $2 on Gabbert) largely because of how the bye-weeks were shaking out - I wanted to diversify. Amazing to think that Ced Benson is a no-brainer, but he is. He's not all that good but has the benefit of being a perfect fit for what GB likes to do. Royster and Jones had good projection numbers and seemed reasonable gambles. Kinda fear the Detroit RB situation, but took a shot on Smith.

Arian Foster $34

Marshawn Lynch $19

Kevin Smith $12

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

Taiwan Jones $2

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WR - 9 for $77. I'm sure the Ryan-Jones combo is quite common, but value-wise I think it just makes sense. There's too many other good options to see Julio to get as much coverage as teams would like. Dez is a bargain as long as he doesn't get stupid again :unsure: . Young as a usual #3 seemed like a nice price in that offense. I like to have a bunch of back-end guys that can do stuff and put up the occasional solid game. I think this accomplishes that - Blackmon being a total boom/bust choice IMO. Would have liked to have sneaked a Bronco WR in here as I think they'll benefit from having a real QB (with a HOF pedigree at that).

Julio Jones $23

Dez Bryant $18

Titus Young $10

Justin Blackmon $7

Danny Amendola $6

Mario Manningham $4

Jonathan Baldwin $4

Harry Douglas $3

Ryan Broyles $2

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TE - 3 for $47. Oops. This is what happens when you are traveling and trying to put together one of these teams. Don't get me wrong, I expect to get solid production and have 2 of these guys count almost every week, but this was overkill. Really love the upside of Gresham this year and couldn't take him out - he's the real #2 option in Cincinnati. I should've bought a $4/$5 guy like M Bennett and used the $6 elsewhere.

Aaron Hernandez $23

Jermaine Gresham $13

Greg Olsen $11

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PK - 3 for $9. Variance, variance, variance. I always go 3 for PK and Defense. And there's really a lot of value with all 3 of these guys as well as they all have strong legs that can lead to big points week. I wish I had done everything else as well as this.

Rob Bironas $3

Matt Prater $3

Mike Nugent $3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DEF - 3 for $10. Again, this is a case of diversify and conquer. The Jets seem really cheap at $4, especially with how much the defense will probably be on the field (and since scoring defense doesn't matter this is okay). The Bengals and Saints both should play above their $3 price tag as well. I just don't see spending the top $ on this position - more is better here.

New York Jets $4

Cincinnati Bengals $3

New Orleans Saints $3

So there you go, I'm a 27-man roster guy this season. Big rosters may be out of fashion but I still feel good rolling this way.

:boxing:

-QG

 
'pghrob said:
For the longest time, I was going with only the Steelers D as my 1 D/ST, thinking that they would be fine all the way through and roll the dice that at week 4, I would be strong enough to go without a D/ST. That earlier team also had Gates instead of V. Davis as the compliment to Graham. This contest requires that there be 2 good TE's to last to the end. Earlier, it also had A. Roberts and E. Royal at WR instead of Hill and Gordon. It also had Jonathan Dwyer.

Then last night, I started messing with weekly points and looking at the effect of bye weeks and cut down. I may have made a mistake of getting away from my Steelers only defense as that idea meant no late week byes that could result in me getting cut when the threshold is even tighter. They were the only D/ST team to have a week 4 bye that was any good. The other was I think the Indy Colts. Oh well. What's done is done.

I really debated on adding Ben Tate as handcuff to Foster, but decided $12 for a hand cuff to a $34 rb was too pricey. That will come back to bite me if Foster goes down. I like Matt Ryan for the whole season and see him as the best value that could finish top 5. The Falcons QB has easiest SOS and Gabbert has a decent week 7 match up as the bye replacement.

I wanted 3 proven studs as my more WRs. Titus Young should be able to fill in nicely as bye week replacement.

This contest is such a blast. Good luck everybody.

Matt Ryan $19

Blaine Gabbert $6

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arian Foster $34

Darren McFadden $26

Rashard Mendenhall $4

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

Taiwan Jones $2

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Julio Jones $23

Brandon Marshall $22

A.J. Green $22

Titus Young $10

Justin Blackmon $7

Stephen Hill $6

Josh Gordon $3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29

Vernon Davis $17

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rob Bironas $3

Justin Medlock $3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Jets $4

Seattle Seahawks $4
Click to expand...
With the news this week of Foster missing practice time with knee soreness and him being a GTD, I thought I would check how I stack up with others who have Foster in the contest.From the contest query app, I notice that 2023 people have Foster and only 289 of the 2023 have Foster and his handcuff Ben Tate. And of those, only 2 have all three - Foster, Tate, and Forsett. 23 Have Foster and only Forsett.

990 have Ben Tate. Of those, 8 have both Tate and Forsett.

77 have only Forsett.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Roddy is 31, when most WR's start to decline,
Click to expand...
Uh, no.
Click to expand...
Ok, most WR's actually start to decline well before 31, but some elite WR's peak later than average.Here's an article analyzing WR age and fantasy value: http://fantasydouche.com/2012/04/at-what-age-do-wide-receivers-peak-in-fantasy-value/

Maybe receivers have four career phases:

21-22 – Getting Good

23-27 – Being Good

28-30 – Trying to stay good

30+ – The Steady Decline
Click to expand...
Julio Jones is just entering the best years for a WR, while Roddy White is starting the "Steady Decline" phase. It doesn't mean there aren't WR's with great years at 31+, but most WR's do decline in production after 30. I avoided drafting any WR over 28 this year.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Tom Brady $30 0.00 bye

Andrew Luck $11 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fred Jackson $21 0.00 bye

Doug Martin $21 0.00 bye

David Wilson $9 0.00 bye

Kendall Hunter $6 0.00 bye

Jonathan Dwyer $4 0.00 bye

Cedric Benson $3 0.00 bye

Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye

Taiwan Jones $2 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Percy Harvin $20 0.00 bye

Marques Colston $19 0.00 bye

Titus Young $10 0.00 bye

Justin Blackmon $7 0.00 bye

Kendall Wright $6 0.00 bye

Alshon Jeffery $6 0.00 bye

Danny Amendola $6 0.00 bye

Eddie Royal $2 0.00 bye

Ryan Broyles $2 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29 0.00 bye

Kyle Rudolph $11 0.00 bye

Dwayne Allen $2 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matt Bryant $4 0.00 bye

Matt Prater $3 0.00 bye

Blair Walsh $3 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle Seahawks $4 0.00 bye

Cincinnati Bengals $3 0.00 bye

Kansas City Chiefs $3 0.00

I made the top 500 last year went with a similar team this year. I went with a stud QB and TE. I wanted 2 good players at RB and WR. As far as bench guys other than obvious values I wanted guys I thought could have some big weeks. Here's hoping for a top 250 this year.

 
'del mar said:
Ahmad Rashad at 31 = 69 for 1095 15.9 avg. - his second best year. His best was at 30 so I guess that is why he perceives the start of the decline at 31.
Click to expand...
Yep -- peaked at 30 and started to decline at 31. I didn't say older WR's can't have great years, but most do start to decline at 31, or often earlier. Doesn't mean I can't still outperform many young WR's at my old age, but I definitely was much better before 31...
 
'del mar said:
Ahmad Rashad at 31 = 69 for 1095 15.9 avg. - his second best year. His best was at 30 so I guess that is why he perceives the start of the decline at 31. Jerry Rice at 31 = 98 1503 15.3 Reggie Wayne at 31 = 100 1264 12.6 Marvin Harrison at 31 = 94 1272 13.5 Terrell Owens at 31 = 77 1200 15.6 Cris Carter at 31 = 96 1163 12.1 So it appears that there may still be life in old bones. I am reminded of Mark Twain's famous retort that "reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." If I owned Roddy I wouldn't panic yet. But since I don't own him I hope Rashad is correct ;-)
Click to expand...
Yes, WR's still can have very good years after 30, but most peak by then. For the guys you listed, here are the ages when they had their best year, all before 31:Ahmad Rashad 30Reggie Wayne 29Marvin Harrison 29 or 30, depending on scoring systemTerrell Owens 28Cris Carter 30The only outlier is Jerry Rice. He had his most TD year at 25, but his highest yardage and receptions year was at 33. He's not most WR's, though, he's the GOAT.Despite Rice's amazing year at 33, I'll stick with the odds and favor WR's under 31.
 
My first year participating, and it was a lot of fun. Like most others, I'll need a lot of luck.

Tom Brady $30

Andrew Luck $11

Doug Martin $21

Stevan Ridley $16

Ben Tate $12

Robert Turbin $6

Bernard Scott $4

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Cedric Benson $3

Justin Forsett $2

Taiwan Jones $2

Julio Jones $23

Brandon Lloyd $18

Torrey Smith $16

Pierre Garcon $14

Kendall Wright $6

Donald Jones $4

Louis Murphy $2

Ryan Broyles $2

Aaron Hernandez $23

Kyle Rudolph $11

Dwayne Allen $2

Alex Henery $4

Greg Zuerlein $3

Philadelphia Eagles $6

New England Patriots $5

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
lol, speaking of bye weeks. There are a bunch of entries like this as well, which weren't picked up by my earlier query but are all but guaranteed to get eliminated during the bye weeks.
Click to expand...
Watch him squeak through only to see all those guys benched in week 16 ahead of the playoffs ;) -QG

 
My team is ridiculously non-unique. I don't think there is any pair of players that I am the only owner of.

In my querying I found what's probably the companion entry to mine in the big-rooster, small-rooster debate and it actually belongs to my Bengal Brother Kirby!

I have 27 players, he has 18. We have 6 players in common (including all 3 TEs).

My Rooster

Kirby's Rooster

Side note - This Guy has 16 players in commom with me :doh:

-QG

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Despite Rice's amazing year at 33, I'll stick with the odds and favor WR's under 31.
Click to expand...
That's not what the odds say.
Click to expand...
I'm glad you back up your statements with such solid facts...
Click to expand...
I don't have time to teach a basic statistics course here, but among other things, you haven't controlled the sample for WR quality or situation. Comparing Roddy White at 31 to a WR who changed teams, or lost his starting job, or got injured at age 30 doesn't make any sense. We know that Roddy White is an all-Pro WR who is a starter on a good offense at age 31; what's the curve look like for that population? You have no idea.
 
The only entry with McFadden, Bush, Graham and Grokowski

Joe Flacco $11 0.00

John Skelton $7 0.00

Blaine Gabbert $6 0.00

Ryan Tannehill $4 0.00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Darren McFadden $26 0.00

Reggie Bush $20 0.00

Donald Brown $19 0.00

Ben Tate $12 0.00

Cedric Benson $3 0.00

Evan Royster $3 0.00

Ronnie Brown $2 0.00

Taiwan Jones $2 0.00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Percy Harvin $20 0.00

Eric Decker $17 0.00

Justin Blackmon $7 0.00

Davone Bess $6 0.00

Devery Henderson $4 0.00

Harry Douglas $3 0.00

Josh Gordon $3 0.00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29 0.00

Rob Gronkowski $28 0.00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Steve Hauschka $3 0.00

Matt Prater $3 0.00

Lawrence Tynes $3 0.00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati Bengals $3 0.00

New Orleans Saints $3 0.00

Cleveland Browns

 
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
'CalBear said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Despite Rice's amazing year at 33, I'll stick with the odds and favor WR's under 31.
Click to expand...
That's not what the odds say.
Click to expand...
I'm glad you back up your statements with such solid facts...
Click to expand...
I don't have time to teach a basic statistics course here, but among other things, you haven't controlled the sample for WR quality or situation. Comparing Roddy White at 31 to a WR who changed teams, or lost his starting job, or got injured at age 30 doesn't make any sense. We know that Roddy White is an all-Pro WR who is a starter on a good offense at age 31; what's the curve look like for that population? You have no idea.
Click to expand...
Nice attitude.Ok, here's a different study of WR's from 1990-2010 who finished in the top 36 at least one season (PPR and standard scoring), adjusted for same team vs. changing teams: http://www.fantasyshrink.com/2011/06/09/how-does-age-impact-wr-production-part-ii/

Not every one is in exactly Roddy White's situation (that number wouldn't be statistically significant), but it gives enough data points to give a pretty good idea of the general trend for fantasy-relevant WR's in the fantasy football era. Once again, it shows a pretty steady decline in production after age 30.

The all-pro WR's I've looked at who were starters on good offenses at 31 all had had their best season by then and declined in production from there (other than Jerry Rice's one year at 33, if looking at receptions/yards rather than TD's), but you can at least show a good sample of WR's in the fantasy football era who didn't to support your certification that "that's not what the odds say."

I've now linked to 2 studies (and there are more) supporting my statement that "most WR's start to decline by 31," along with taking a list of all-pro WR's someone posted to show strong years at 31 and showing that all those WR's had their best year before then (other than Rice in non-TD terms). That may not be perfect support for the odds favoring WR's under 31, but they're better than these:

Uh, no.
Click to expand...
That's not what the odds say.
Click to expand...
I don't have time to teach a basic statistics course here
Click to expand...
You have no idea.
Click to expand...
Don't waste your time teaching a basic statistics course, but please enlighten us as to what the odds do say. Thanks...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Matt Ryan $19

Matt Schaub $13

-----------------------------

Chris Johnson $27

Steven Jackson $22

Willis McGahee $16

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Cedric Benson $3

-----------------------------

Calvin Johnson $29

Julio Jones $23

Brandon Lloyd $18

Eric Decker $17

Torrey Smith $16

Justin Blackmon $7

------------------------------

Greg Olsen $11

Scott Chandler $6

------------------------------

Stephen Gostkowski $6

Alex Henery $4

------------------------------

Chicago Bears $5

Seattle Seahawks $4

 
If there were cuts the cut line would be insanely high this week.

Thank goodness for us non-Ryan owners this week doesn't count. Don't need that steamroller to get any larger.

 
Picked a heck of a week to drop a 2 spot...I hate it when you get a nice total when you don't need it :kicksrock: . I guess its promising to know my guys can score at least!

 
Liked the way the new fun and gun Atlanta offense looked. Hope they keep it up. Already wishing I didn't pick only 6 receivers.

 
Sitting at 200.60 + (T Jones - 14.6/20.5) + (Gresham - 14.6/21.4) + (Prater/Nugent - 7.0) + (Cincy - 20.0)

Turk's not gonna get me this week! :pickle:

-QG

(yeah yeah, I know the Turk's not getting ANYONE this week...)

 
Locker making me glad I picked 3 QB already (and swapped out Tannehill for Gabbert so I didn't have both Ryan and Tannehill on bye).

-QG

 
'northwoods said:
3,198 teams took the San Francisco 49's defense...and they were all 100% on the money.
Click to expand...
Meh, from a contest perspective what did they do today? Three sacks and a pick? That's 5 points. Judging by all the INT totals I saw today, I assume there are a whole bunch of defenses that outscored the Niners. (ETA: And if I'm wrong, and the 49ers defense actually was one of the best today, what does that tell you about defensive scoring in this contest?)I think we all know the SF defense is really good, but are they worth paying extra money for? Almost certainly not, in my opinion. Defensive scoring is too low and variable in this contest to spend money on the higher-priced teams.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
174.05 with Ronnie Brown (-7.4) remaining in the exhibition week of the contest. Time to roll forward into the cutdown weeks. :boxing:

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TheWinz
2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice
72 73 74
Replies
4K
Views
84K
Puppies
Puppies
Hot Sauce Guy
Week 14 Kicker Contest! Officially an Official Topic!
2
Replies
79
Views
2K
Hot Sauce Guy
Hot Sauce Guy
Ignoratio Elenchi
***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread
76 77 78
Replies
4K
Views
132K
flc735
flc735

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top