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Ignoratio Elenchi

***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread

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Last Update - Cutoff: Tuesday, November 6th 2:05am Cutoff at that time: 156.65

Ghost team still alive. :mellow:

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Last Update - Cutoff: Tuesday, November 6th 2:05am Cutoff at that time: 156.65

Ghost team still alive. :mellow:

a>

I hat Vick and Reid. Give the damn ball to McCoy. They deserve to continue losing.

154.6

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This entry is still alive

by 9 points. Thanks to Royster, Broyles and MARSHALL!

Next week will be tough.

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Thank you Michael Vick and the rest of the Eagles for being so inept in the Red zone made the cut by.25 one more TD and I would have been toast.Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.

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Out. 2.9 points short. Can attribute the loss to injuries to DMC and Harvin. Amazing that I found a way to lose with Luck as my QB and the Chargers as my defense.

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Squeaked by, without jordy and sproles. Next week, turk is coming. No rodgers and only other qb is locker......:(

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Finished #172 this week. With McFadden and A. Brown injuries, I'm in trouble for future weeks.

stubby

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Mr. Tennessee ATO, meet The Turk. Mr. The Turk, meet Tennessee ATO.

All I needed was 1 of Bryant's 2 misses to be good. Every week there are dozens of people who can say esssentially the same thing though. Frustrating this year because I really liked my team -- maybe not so much to score huge totals at the end, but at least to make the finals. In the end, injuries were just too much to overcome. No Amendola and Harvin meant that I had to use a little score from Britt this week. I didn't get a big performance out of TE, QB, or Def to offset it.

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Squeaked by, without jordy and sproles. Next week, turk is coming. No rodgers and only other qb is locker......:(

I fully expect Locker to start this week.

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Injuries got me, even with the big roster.

First time my wideouts didn't top 45 points. Defenses only had 2 points this week. Next year may go with 2 better defenses, or 3 defenses - one of my only regrets.

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Squeaked by, without jordy and sproles. Next week, turk is coming. No rodgers and only other qb is locker......:(

I fully expect Locker to start this week.
Hope you're right ATO.....MRI yesterday, and I would think for them to want to use Locker in a lost year, ya know? Get the experience....But, if he ain't healthy, can't put the franchise at risk.....

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The Good:

WR's - B Marshall, Harvin, Wayne, Cobb, Amendola, T Smith, Wright & Blackmon

PK's - Hanson, Bironas & Medlock

The Bad:

TE's - Gates & Pettigrew

Def's - Bills, Seahawks, Chiefs

The Ugly:

QB's - Vick & Locker

RB's - McFadden, Fred Jackson, David Wilson, Benson & Taiwan Jones

Miracle to still be alive. Basically been carried every week by my WR's. Every single week my flex was a WR in double digits. Shoe will drop soon with my QB & RB debacle's. Have survived a zero at QB in week 7 and a 12.2 combined score from my RB's last week. If Vick remains the starter, Fred Jackson picks it up and Taiwan Jones fills in a bit, I have a shot. But that is a lot of risk to have going into the final two bye weeks. I also have a lot of byes in week 11. I expect to be gone then if not this week.

Taking risks on Gates, Vick and McFadden may have been too many questionable plays.

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SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%18	4633	589	12.7%19	1813	279	15.4%20	1376	227	16.5%21	1142	209	18.3%22	966	194	20.1%23	812	177	21.8%24	626	144	23.0%25	482	122	25.3%26	380	78	20.5%27	308	81	26.3%28	229	62	27.1%29	191	57	29.8%30	335	81	24.2%TOT	13293	2300	17.3%

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out, just missed the cut, needed McCoy to get a TD last night.

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Barely scraped in with 160 points. With Foster being my only real RB left, I am in trouble (Dmac, Mendenhall, Benson, Wilson).

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SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%18	4633	589	12.7%19	1813	279	15.4%20	1376	227	16.5%21	1142	209	18.3%22	966	194	20.1%23	812	177	21.8%24	626	144	23.0%25	482	122	25.3%26	380	78	20.5%27	308	81	26.3%28	229	62	27.1%29	191	57	29.8%30	335	81	24.2%TOT	13293	2300	17.3%
I came up with some (very) slightly different results via the querier, does that include staff entries? Based on the querier stats, R-squared of 82.0% on a simple linear regression (slope 1.18%); 88.5% if you exclude the 18 and 30 man rosters (slope of 1.32%). So it looks like once again larger rosters are killing it in the elimination weeks. I dropped down from a 30-man to a 25-man roster this year and so far so good, but somewhat comforting that the larger rosters are doing so well even in light of the more compact pricing this year.

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SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%18	4633	589	12.7%19	1813	279	15.4%20	1376	227	16.5%21	1142	209	18.3%22	966	194	20.1%23	812	177	21.8%24	626	144	23.0%25	482	122	25.3%26	380	78	20.5%27	308	81	26.3%28	229	62	27.1%29	191	57	29.8%30	335	81	24.2%TOT	13293	2300	17.3%
This has me thinking about the final 250 estimates we did last year, I am going to throw out my first batch of predictions based on your figures above.
SIZE	ALL	Top 250	SURV%18	4633	57	1.23%19	1813	28	1.54%20	1376	24	1.74%21	1142	22	1.93%22	966	21	2.17%23	812	20	2.46%24	626	17	2.72%25	482	15	3.11%26	380	10	2.63%27	308	10	3.25% 28	229	8	3.49%29	191	8	4.19%30	335	10	2.99%TOT	13293	250	1.88%
I used relative weekly survival rates based on linear regression (without excluding 18 and 30 man teams) without adjustment for bye weeks.

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SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%18	4633	589	12.7%19	1813	279	15.4%20	1376	227	16.5%21	1142	209	18.3%22	966	194	20.1%23	812	177	21.8%24	626	144	23.0%25	482	122	25.3%26	380	78	20.5%27	308	81	26.3%28	229	62	27.1%29	191	57	29.8%30	335	81	24.2%TOT	13293	2300	17.3%
I came up with some (very) slightly different results via the querier, does that include staff entries?
My table does not include staff entries. I assume the querier does include them (the total number of entries, including staff, is 13,318).

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Both Doug Martin and Marshall... 212 and brees left still (-13.75). Wish last week and this week were playoff weeks... my only 200+ point weeks so far. Hope they can keep it up.

I'm interested to see the high scorer this week... any rodgers/peterson/martin/marshall/decker/bears owners? Quite a few players with great scores this week.

With that Graham TD, I'm over 250 now.

Where do we see the top scorers for the week?

Here is the top scorers team. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/102371.php

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Here are some high level scores by position:

                       3,100 teams              2,300 advancing teamsQB                     27.97                    29.06RB 1                   30.23                    34.07RB 2                   14.33                    15.81WR 1                   26.47                    28.05                    WR 2                   17.37                    18.42WR 3                   12.07                    13.13TE                     14.40                    15.27Flex                   11.61                    12.55K                      12.58                    12.89D                      9.46                     10.12

What does it mean? I have no idea, except that RB1 is certainly pulled up by Doug Martin...

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Missed the cut by about 9 points, and made it about as far as I usually do.

In retrospect, I played too many cheap RBs, and it's amazing I lasted as long as I did with this collection of plodders, bench-warmers and folks who spend more time on the trainer's table than on the field:

Fred Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Rashad Jennings, David Wilson, Bilal Powell, Jonathan Dwyer and Cedric Benson.

Yuk. It's seemd I'd hit on at least one of those at the end of August, but it was pretty clear a couple of weeks ago that this team wasn't going anywhere.

Good luck to the rest of you who made it; the worst part for me is, I don't get to do this again for another 9 months!

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Got through with 162 thanks to Jimmy Graham saving me. I should cruise through Week 10, but Week 11 is really bad for me. Don't think it matters as my lack of RBs outside of Peterson are going to kill me. My team just doesn't have that boom potential to be top 250 IMHO.

Regardless this contest is so much fun. In fact it's the primary reason I'm a subscriber season to season.

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Out. :sadbanana:

Missed by 6 points. Usually seem to go out around weeks 8-10. Really liked my team though and wouldn't do much different. For the first time ever, every guy contributed. Liked my mix of studs and cheap fliers. Just had a bad week with a couple of injuries and guys with poor weeks (coughcoughStaffordcoughcough). But I was averaging about 165-170 and think I had a shot.

Anyway, good luck to everyone remaining and see you next year.

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Another good week for me with a # 69 finish. I was feeling pretty good till I started looking at some of the rosters above me and the top spot. Regardless I love this contest and I am stoked to be sticking around. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/107781.php

QB: Luck/Flacco

(Really solid duo considering Flacco's early season form. Just need him to pick it up again.)

RB: Doug Martin, McGahee, Dwyer, CBenson, Taiwan Jones, Royster, Ronnie Brown

(I tried to spend moderately on volume backs and then go for lottery tickets. R Brown has been a surprise for me but I need one of these backups to get the lead spot and produce.)

WR: Julio Jones, AJG, Decker, ABrown, TYoung, JBlackmon, Steve Smith (STL), JBaldwin

(Love this group and still have hope for some solid PPR production out of ABrown if he can get over this injury quickly. Young and Blackmon are making me feel more confident these past two weeks. Smith and Baldwin are throwbacks)

TE: JGraham, KRudolph, Kendricks, Dewayne Allen

(Thank goodness for Allen coming around. Really need for KRudolph to start getting targets in these later weeks.

This team is pretty diversified for sticking around a little while longer - but I need 1 or 2 of these lottery tickets to go crazy. Good luck in week 10.

K: Zeurlin, Prater, Nugent

Def/ST: Bills, Seahawks, Bengals

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Gonna be tough without Rodgers and Harvin this week. Gonna need either Flacco or Tannehill to have a huge game.

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I AM SURE I HAD THE CORRECT Zach Miller.... WHERE CAN I FIND THE ORIGIONAL PLAYER LIST?

I love that this is your second post ever, made 8 1/2 years after your first. Here's the origional player list:Z. Miller $6Z. Miller $4Which one do you have?

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quiet heading into wk10

Here's some of the bigger name guys on bye this week

530 active entries Rodgers

421 Harvin (injured doubtful)

257 RG3

243 Cobb

76 A Roberts

34 Fitzgerald

16 Richardson

46 with Rodgers/Cobb combo on bye

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quiet heading into wk10Here's some of the bigger name guys on bye this week530 active entries Rodgers421 Harvin (injured doubtful)257 RG3243 Cobb76 A Roberts34 Fitzgerald16 Richardson46 with Rodgers/Cobb combo on bye

A little looksie at remaining Rodgers team's makeups (note: I only have 529 teams with Rodgers, and I only have non-staff entries)

                         	Number of QB's					Player   	              1	2	3	4	5	Grand TotalAaron Rodgers	              9	403	98	16	3	529Alex Smith	                5	1			6Andrew Luck		        73	33	6		112Andy Dalton		        6	1			7Ben Roethlisberger		2	1			3Blaine Gabbert		        18	6	3		27Brandon Weeden		        1	2	1		4Cam Newton		        1				1Carson Palmer		        2		1		3Christian Ponder		17	2	1	1	21Drew Brees		        7				7Eli Manning		        2	1	2		5Jake Locker		        49	29	4	1	83Jay Cutler		        2	1			3Joe Flacco		        46	15	4		65John Skelton		        3	5	3	1	12Josh Freeman		        5	1	1		7Mark Sanchez		        6	1	2		9Matt Cassel		        5	5	1		11Matt Flynn		        1			1	2Matt Hasselbeck			        4			4Matt Ryan		        43	12		1	56Matt Schaub		        31	14	3	1	49Matthew Stafford		4	2			6Michael Vick		        1	2			3Peyton Manning		        14	6	1	1	22Robert Griffin III		9	6	3		18Ryan Fitzpatrick		13	7	1	1	22Ryan Tannehill		        24	26	6	3	59Sam Bradford		        4  	7	2		13Tarvaris Jackson		1	1			2Tim Tebow		        4	5	3	1	13Tom Brady		        3				3Tony Romo		        1				1

Edited to make "Spoiler" to hide table

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Note: This means that 91 people are counting on tonight's game for their QB score (73 for Luck, 18 for Gabbert)

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quiet heading into wk10Here's some of the bigger name guys on bye this week530 active entries Rodgers421 Harvin (injured doubtful)257 RG3243 Cobb76 A Roberts34 Fitzgerald16 Richardson46 with Rodgers/Cobb combo on bye

457 McFadden (injured)

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I AM SURE I HAD THE CORRECT Zach Miller.... WHERE CAN I FIND THE ORIGIONAL PLAYER LIST?

I love that this is your second post ever, made 8 1/2 years after your first. Here's the origional player list:Z. Miller $6Z. Miller $4Which one do you have?
I Sent the original list over email to myself, i imagine i could dig it up if really necessary. I dont necessarily remember who either of the zach millers are though i figure one was at Jax other Seattle?

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I now see I finished #13 last week (found the link from the team status page). Wouldn't mind that for the final 250...

However, I need to get by this week with only 9.45 points from my QB slot, as Gabbert couldn't finish the game in the one week I needed him to fill in for Rodgers. Blackmon's 5.50 hopefully won't count for me...

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quiet heading into wk10Here's some of the bigger name guys on bye this week530 active entries Rodgers421 Harvin (injured doubtful)257 RG3243 Cobb76 A Roberts34 Fitzgerald16 Richardson46 with Rodgers/Cobb combo on bye

457 McFadden (injured)
1522 Benson

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Missed the cut by about 9 points, and made it about as far as I usually do. In retrospect, I played too many cheap RBs, and it's amazing I lasted as long as I did with this collection of plodders, bench-warmers and folks who spend more time on the trainer's table than on the field:Fred Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Rashad Jennings, David Wilson, Bilal Powell, Jonathan Dwyer and Cedric Benson. Yuk. It's seemd I'd hit on at least one of those at the end of August, but it was pretty clear a couple of weeks ago that this team wasn't going anywhere.Good luck to the rest of you who made it; the worst part for me is, I don't get to do this again for another 9 months!

I'm still around, but also have RB issues. I went into this contest hoping Benson, Royster and Mendenhall/Dwyer would pan out, we'll see if they do in the future. Taking the risk on McFadden could crush me. But my WRs will compete with anyone's - Marshall, JJones, Harvin, Dez, Broyles, and Amendola might be enough to keep me around until McFadden comes back. Thinking next year I'll need to go with 3 upper tier RBs and 3 top WRs instead of 2 and 4. Or just pick a better top RB. (Had Peterson in there for most iterations, but pulled him for McFadden partly for an earlier bye week)

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I'm hurting a little bit this week.

- Harvin out

- Benson bye

Need big games from Rivers and Gates. Right now Blackmon is going to count for me unless Amendola, Heath Miller and Gates have better games.

C'mon San Diego!!!!

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I am at 74 points, but 40 of it is from T Gonzalez and Matt Ryan.

I think I am in BIG trouble this week.

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Gonna be tough for me this week with no QB.Oh wait thats right I have Tannehill thats even worse.

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I'm probably done this week unless Lynch goes into super-Beast mode. With McFadden, Benson, and Sproles hurt, my RBs are Lynch, Tolbert, and McCluster. It's nice to see both Olsen and Gates having decent games today but I don't think I'm going to make it. Even if I managed to survive, Lynch being on bye next week would definitely be too much to overcome.

It was a nice run this year - best I've ever done.

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I am at 156 now, but will be done except for defense kicker after the 1:00 games. I will have Seattle (-1) and Robbie Gould (-10).

Need some last minute scoring. I was out in week 4 last year,so I have no idea what it takes to advance in this round.

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205.75

Sitting at 205.75 with a few Cheifs left. On to the next week! Furthest I've made it in this contest. Somehow need to survive Peterson's bye week next week.

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At 179.45 after the early games. I still have Lynch (-2.7), Gould or Suisham (-18), Jets or Bears (-0) and Heath Miller (-13.70).

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Somehow need to survive Pederson's bye week next week.

Doug Pederson was available for this? And I missed him? Godd@#$@#$!Not feeling great today so far. I'm in the low hundredteens, but with a decent amount of guys remaining who COULD contribute....I just don't have much faith that they will. Only a couple bona fide starters left, the rest are McCluster types. We shall see.

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Ugh... sitting at 119.85 with Forte (-0), Marshall (-5.6), Smith (-6.6), Baldwin (-17.7), Kendricks (-17.7), Suisham and Henery (-8.0)...

... Three defenses and best score was a 3.0. :yucky:

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Really says how much I enjoy this contest when I pay more attention to the scores of this one than I do with my 2 teams in the FBGs champ contest,even when I have a good chance to advance with one team and a decent chance with the other.Sitting at 204.65 with Foster(-10.20) and Manningham (-13.50) to go.Good luck to everyone in the late games.

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185.85 with Marshall and Bears Def/ST to go. Not looking forward to next week's byes.

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At 137 with Bush, Blackmon and Amendola counting for me right now.

Still have Marshall and Miller to add to my scores as well as Moss if any can beat out the above.

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