kardplayer
Footballguy
I have the cutline based on the current live scoring at 146.15. This has the Mike Williams TD in it for sure. I need to fact check to confirm, and obviously there is still a lot of action to come...
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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
184.3 with Bennett and the Skins D to go on Monday Night 
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/100001
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/100001
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rustycolts
Footballguy
Done with 184.10.I think that should be enough,but you never know.
Maelstrom
Footballguy
173.35 if I did my math correct (Graham/Gonzo not scored), with Cruz yet to go (-1.9). I'd love to see Cruz go off, only 24 live teams have him so seems like that shouldn't affect the final line too much (right?), but would make me feel a lot more comfortable than I do at 173.
shader
Footballguy
Only 24? That's good news. With Vick, desean and McCoy out that should help as well.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Giving me a glimmer, but it's awfully faint....I'm done at 159.4 unless Evan Royster beats 8.7 at the flex. Second worst point total of the season and during a 50% cut line
. After Brees' steamy pile on Thursday night, it was probably too much to depend on Tannehill to carry me into the final 250. Oh well, I made it back to the final 500, which is still a pretty decent accomplishment in itself.
Maelstrom
Footballguy
So is it safe to say that Dez is probably the key player to watch for how much the cut line will move? Plus maybe RGIII (94 players).Oh, and minor correction, only 23 players with Cruz.
kardplayer
Footballguy
Just looked at the feed. Looks like ATL/NO game isn't in there. I will be back with a new cutline in awhile.
148.65 looks like the line w/o Thursday, Sunday Night, Monday Night.
148.65 looks like the line w/o Thursday, Sunday Night, Monday Night.
Ahmad Rashad
Footballguy
There aren't a lot of highly-owned players in the NFC East, where all the teams remaining to play are from. I think that means the cut line isn't likely to move up too much, which hopefully means I'm safely through to the finals. Wishful thinking, anyway...
kardplayer
Footballguy
Updated with ATL/NO scores. Cutline now 156.35. I'll be back with SNF/MNF sensitivities in a few minutes
kardplayer
Footballguy
Very wishful thinking. If you don't have players in the night games, root for low scoring games...
Code:
Evan Royster 29%Dez Bryant 26%Robert Griffin III 19%David Wilson 18%Martellus Bennett 14%Lawrence Tynes 13%Pierre Garcon 11%LeSean McCoy 8%Washington Redskins 8%DeMarco Murray 5%Fred Davis 5%Brent Celek 5%New York Giants 5%Victor Cruz 4%Alex Henery 4%Santana Moss 4%Philadelphia Eagles 4%Tony Romo 3%Kevin Ogletree 3%Leonard Hankerson 3%Eli Manning 2%Jeremy Maclin 2%Ahmad Bradshaw 2%Rueben Randle 2%DeSean Jackson 2%Dallas Cowboys 2%Hakeem Nicks 2%Dan Bailey 1%Felix Jones 1%Billy Cundiff 1%Josh Morgan 1%Michael Vick 0%Dion Lewis 0%Roy Helu 0%Jason Avant 0%Jason Witten 0%Bear Pascoe 0%Miles Austin 0%Riley Cooper 0%Jerrel Jernigan 0%kardplayer
Footballguy
If everyone scores what they are predicted to by FBG, cutline will be 163.7.
If Dez Bryant scores 30 instead of projected 18, cutline moves to 167.85
RG III getting 40 instead of 20.5 (on top of Bryant's 30 over 18) drives the line to 170.45
It will be clearer after tonight's game, but the moral of the story is, if we have two shoot outs, the line could move a bunch.
If Dez Bryant scores 30 instead of projected 18, cutline moves to 167.85
RG III getting 40 instead of 20.5 (on top of Bryant's 30 over 18) drives the line to 170.45
It will be clearer after tonight's game, but the moral of the story is, if we have two shoot outs, the line could move a bunch.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
it was a good run 
rustycolts
Footballguy
Well for those of us that make the final 250 its a 1 in 250 shot to win 20 k thats better odds than the lottery got to love that.
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nickdiesel
Footballguy
Since thursday game is not on the live scoring does anyone have a handy list of what the Thursday players scored? I am right at the cut line with dez Bennett and garçon still to play
kardplayer
Footballguy
Code:
Name Team ScoreLance Moore NOS 19.3Tony Gonzalez ATL 17.8Michael Turner ATL 16Matt Bryant ATL 16Matt Ryan ATL 14.05Marques Colston NOS 13.1Jimmy Graham NOS 11.9Atlanta Falcons ATL 11Garrett Hartley NOS 10Pierre Thomas NOS 9.9Julio Jones ATL 9.8Darren Sproles NOS 9.7Mark Ingram NOS 8.2Drew Brees NOS 7.05Jason Snelling ATL 6.8Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 5.9Joseph Morgan NOS 4.8New Orleans Saints NOS 3Roddy White ATL 3Nick Toon NOS 0Devery Henderson NOS 0Harry Douglas ATL 0nickdiesel
Footballguy
Thanks kardplayer
shader
Footballguy
Well I'm in a wierd situation.
After the latest update I'm at 163.65. Dez just scored again which means the cutline is going to probably be around 165-167.
I have RG3, but I'll need him to score 40.85 before his points will count. If he scores that many, the cutline will go way up. So I'll need him to probably score 45 points or so.
Really the most likely scenario for me is about 20 points from David Wilson, and that's really pushing it.
OH well. Final 500 was fun.
After the latest update I'm at 163.65. Dez just scored again which means the cutline is going to probably be around 165-167.
I have RG3, but I'll need him to score 40.85 before his points will count. If he scores that many, the cutline will go way up. So I'll need him to probably score 45 points or so.
Really the most likely scenario for me is about 20 points from David Wilson, and that's really pushing it.
OH well. Final 500 was fun.
kardplayer
Footballguy
I have the PROJECTED cutline at 168.45 as of the end of the game, assuming the live scoring is accurate. I see the Eagles last TD counted, so should be good.
WildGeneral
Footballguy
At 167.1 with only David Wilson (-13.10) and Washington's Defense (-1.0) remaining...perhaps Eli would be kind and throw a pick-6 or two?I hope you're wrong...I just wanna slide by to the playoffs--is that too much to ask?
kardplayer
Footballguy
Current cutline = 164.70
Projected cutline = 168.45
With RG III (19% owned) getting 40 = 171.25
With Tynes (13%) getting 18 = 169.40
With Bennett (14%) getting 25 = 170.35
With all 3 happening = 173.60
Good luck all
Projected cutline = 168.45
With RG III (19% owned) getting 40 = 171.25
With Tynes (13%) getting 18 = 169.40
With Bennett (14%) getting 25 = 170.35
With all 3 happening = 173.60
Good luck all
nickdiesel
Footballguy
168.05 with Garcon (-6.3) and Bennett (-13.90) left.
I should have some uniqueness going if i slide by because at this point should I move on, I think I may be the only live team with Mccoy and Harvin combo, tonight will be exciting
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/101557.php
I should have some uniqueness going if i slide by because at this point should I move on, I think I may be the only live team with Mccoy and Harvin combo, tonight will be exciting
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/101557.php
chocula
Footballguy
The tool is still not updating the Thursday night game for me. I have no one for the Redskins nor the Giants.
I am at 124, with no Thursday score, but even if you added all three of my players with their total score, I would miss the cut.
It has been a blast and was very excited to make it to the top 500.
I am at 124, with no Thursday score, but even if you added all three of my players with their total score, I would miss the cut.
It has been a blast and was very excited to make it to the top 500.
kardplayer
Footballguy
As of current live scoring, I have the cutline at 168.15
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Gracon proudly leading my ghost team on to the final. Where were you 3 weeks ago jackass?
kardplayer
Footballguy
I have the final cutline as 170.4. As always, don't get too excited if you made it or too down if you missed. Official cutline comes out in the morning.
Maelstrom
Footballguy
Thanks again for running the numbers. Looks like once Gonzales (and Graham, but he only gives me +.1) are counted, I'll be over 180. Woot! I really need Harvin to get healthy though for any shot at accumulating enough points over the next 3 weeks to win. Either way, first time I've ever even come this close, usually out by midseason or earlier. Fun times!
Val Rannous
Footballguy
Thank you Pierre. He puts me over 200 for the first time since week 2, and at just the right time!
I've been doing this every year since FBG started, and it's my first contest playoffs. Woot!
I've been doing this every year since FBG started, and it's my first contest playoffs. Woot!
HellToupee
Footballguy
Terrible week & out with a 155 .A subpar week from Graham & my two stud WRs(JJ & AJG) and with McCoy sidelined only had Ray Rice scoring at RB. I liked my team mix at the start but didn't envision how bare I would be at RB . The McCoy injury killed me. Even if I slid by this week I was going nowhere in the top 250
QB
RG3
Luck
Locker
Group did much better than I hoped. 3- 40 weeks ,7-30 weeks & 3-20s.
RB
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy
Rashard Mendenhall
Cedric Benson
Evan Royster
THe last minute flip of Dwyer for Royster was a big mistake & might have saved me this week. I toyed with the idea of going with "team RB' approach , pick RBs from 3 teams . Probably going that way next year if the $ work. Royster counted twice for me getting 1.0 & .3 points . Going in I was hoping Mendenhall would be back in the 2nd half giving me 3 strong RBs with Benson getting me trough the byes as the main backup
WR
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Titus Young
Randall Cobb
Justin Blackmon
Devonne Bess
Kendall Wright
Jon Baldwin
Good group . No one came up with a big this week but I was happy with my approach here.Blackmon & Baldwin were the lowest each scoring twice
TE
Jimmy Graham
Dwayne Allen
Not really satisfied with Graham's $ . Should have spread it out over 2 TEs. Very happy with Allen
K
Gould
Prater
Lindell
Only 1 week of single digit production. Can't complain
D
Houston
New Orleans
Kansas City
Not a good mix at all
Goodluck to everyone still in
QB
RG3
Luck
Locker
Group did much better than I hoped. 3- 40 weeks ,7-30 weeks & 3-20s.
RB
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy
Rashard Mendenhall
Cedric Benson
Evan Royster
THe last minute flip of Dwyer for Royster was a big mistake & might have saved me this week. I toyed with the idea of going with "team RB' approach , pick RBs from 3 teams . Probably going that way next year if the $ work. Royster counted twice for me getting 1.0 & .3 points . Going in I was hoping Mendenhall would be back in the 2nd half giving me 3 strong RBs with Benson getting me trough the byes as the main backup
WR
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Titus Young
Randall Cobb
Justin Blackmon
Devonne Bess
Kendall Wright
Jon Baldwin
Good group . No one came up with a big this week but I was happy with my approach here.Blackmon & Baldwin were the lowest each scoring twice
TE
Jimmy Graham
Dwayne Allen
Not really satisfied with Graham's $ . Should have spread it out over 2 TEs. Very happy with Allen
K
Gould
Prater
Lindell
Only 1 week of single digit production. Can't complain
D
Houston
New Orleans
Kansas City
Not a good mix at all
Goodluck to everyone still in
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kardplayer
Footballguy
My team defined "Cardiac Kids" this year. I made 7 cuts by less than 11 points, with 2 of those by less than 3. The most amazing was Ryan Broyles going from 0 catches in his first 6 games to scoring a MNF touchdown with 30 seconds left to push me over the top by 0.35 points that week.
I put together a look at my team of 26. I looked at how often they were used (In the table below it is column "Used"), and how many times their points vs. the points of their replacement pushed me over the line ("Gap"). The two weeks where I just barely cleared the line (weeks 7 and 11) account for most of the times where replacing an individual player with a 0 (think injury, bye, or dud) would have knocked me out.
The high level:
I had 1 player who never counted - Jacoby Ford ($5) - who two years in a row has been a dud on my roster. Odds he's on the team next year? Probably 75%, since he's due
I had 5 players who counted ($33), but were never the difference between me making the cut or not - John Skelton, Cedric Benson, Kenny Britt, Damian Williams, and the Dolphins.
One other fun fact:
Through week 10, I could have got by with just Sam Bradford at QB. Peyton has been the difference between survive and cut 2 of the last 3 weeks though.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/105752.php
I put together a look at my team of 26. I looked at how often they were used (In the table below it is column "Used"), and how many times their points vs. the points of their replacement pushed me over the line ("Gap"). The two weeks where I just barely cleared the line (weeks 7 and 11) account for most of the times where replacing an individual player with a 0 (think injury, bye, or dud) would have knocked me out.
The high level:
I had 1 player who never counted - Jacoby Ford ($5) - who two years in a row has been a dud on my roster. Odds he's on the team next year? Probably 75%, since he's due
I had 5 players who counted ($33), but were never the difference between me making the cut or not - John Skelton, Cedric Benson, Kenny Britt, Damian Williams, and the Dolphins.
One other fun fact:
Through week 10, I could have got by with just Sam Bradford at QB. Peyton has been the difference between survive and cut 2 of the last 3 weeks though.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/105752.php
Code:
Player Team POS Price Used Gap Gap% excl 7 excl 11 excl 7 and 11Peyton Manning DEN QB $18 10.0 2 20% 2 1 1 Sam Bradford STL QB $10 2.0 1 50% 1 1 1 John Skelton ARI QB $7 1.0 - 0% - - - Jamaal Charles KCC RB $24 9.0 1 11% 1 - - Green-Ellis CIN RB $17 8.0 2 25% 1 1 - Stevan Ridley NEP RB $16 8.0 1 13% - 1 - Mark Ingram NOS RB $14 1.0 1 100% 1 - - Cedric Benson GBP RB $3 2.0 - 0% - - - B. Marshall CHI WR $22 11.0 5 45% 4 4 3 Torrey Smith BAL WR $16 6.0 1 17% 1 1 1 Reggie Wayne IND WR $15 10.0 2 20% 1 2 1 Kenny Britt TEN WR $13 3.0 - 0% - - - Mike Williams TBB WR $11 7.0 1 14% 1 1 1 Jacoby Ford OAK WR $5 - - 0% - - - Andre Roberts ARI WR $3 6.0 1 17% - 1 - Damian Williams TEN WR $2 1.0 - 0% - - - Ryan Broyles DET WR $2 2.0 1 50% - 1 - Jacob Tamme DEN TE $13 6.0 1 17% 1 - - Kyle Rudolph MIN TE $11 8.0 2 25% 2 2 2 Lance Kendricks STL TE $9 3.0 1 33% - 1 - Matt Prater DEN PK $3 4.0 1 25% 1 - - Rob Bironas TEN PK $3 4.0 2 50% 2 2 2 Robbie Gould CHI PK $3 5.0 1 20% - 1 - Seahawks SEA Def $4 4.0 1 25% - 1 - New Orleans NOS Def $3 4.0 1 25% 1 - - Miami Dolphins MIA Def $3 5.0 - 0% - - - Total 29 20 21 12rustycolts
Footballguy
Well I made it.Avg score over 13 weeks is 176.05 that is not going to do the trick over the next three weeks so If my team ever needs to have a good stretch its now.I only scored over 200 once this season so I really don't hold out much hope.I finished 142 last year so I guess my realistic goal is to beat that.On a positive note right now I have the same odds as everyone else does to win this thing.Good luck to everyone in the 250.Good job!
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
SIZE ALL ALIVE SURV%18 4633 63 1.4%19 1813 29 1.6%20 1376 33 2.4%21 1142 19 1.7%22 966 21 2.2%23 812 25 3.1%24 626 14 2.2%25 482 9 1.9%26 380 9 2.4%27 308 8 2.6%28 229 6 2.6%29 191 6 3.1%30 335 9 2.7%TOT 13293 251 1.9%Congrats to the Final 251! In addition to the 251 subscribers who made it, this was the only staff entry to stay above the cutline all 13 elimination weeks, and he just barely did it this week.
In addition to the 251 subscribers who made it, this was the only staff entry to stay above the cutline all 13 elimination weeks, and he just barely did it this week.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Code:
PLAYER ALL ALIVE SURV% WK 13 SURV%Julio Jones 3672 61 1.7% 39.9%Roddy White 397 5 1.3% 62.5%
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Props to Da Guru.Congrats, final 250. (I secretly hate you all. Don't take it personally though.)
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
What could have been: In addition to the 249 entries that were eliminated this week, there were 637 other entries that fell below the cutline only one time all year.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
This is the only entry to make it to the final 250 with only 1 QB.
3 QB teams outlasted 2 QB teams 2.4% - 1.8%.
3 QB teams outlasted 2 QB teams 2.4% - 1.8%.
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