My view of my draft:
1.1 Jimmy Graham, TE, NOS – Felt I had to go TE to start, since they are gold in this format and I expected most of the good ones to go before my next pick. So it came down to Gronkowski and Graham. Last year, Gronk was the #4 overall player in this format and outscored Graham, the #6 overall scorer, by about 46 points. That's a lot. However, I think Gronk's numbers are more likely to regress, with the addition of Lloyd and with Hernandez potentially staying healthy this season. And Gronk is coming off an end of season injury, while Graham has reportedly had a great offseason; not a big reason, but I'm splitting hairs here. Expecting playoff points.
2.16 Julio Jones, WR, ATL – 7th WR drafted. Could finish top 5, especially assuming Atlanta makes the playoffs. Expecting playoff points.
3.1 Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ – 13th TE drafted. Again, TEs are gold in this format, and I expected many more to go before my next pick. Finished as TE #11 last year and TE #3 in 2010. The Jets receiving corps is weak enough that he should remain a quality option and justify this pick. Playoff points are possible but probably unlikely.
4.16 49ers Team QB – 14th Team QB taken. I wasn’t excited about what was available at other positions, so I decided to secure two top half QBs, especially since I felt I could grab two likely playoff QBs. Last year, the 49ers Team QB finished #12, but they added Moss, Manningham, and Jenkins in the offseason, so the passing game could be improved. I also think Smith improved last year, and it will show in better confidence and at least slightly better numbers this year. Expecting playoff points.
5.1 Ravens Team QB – 15th Team QB taken. Training camp reports are very positive about Flacco. Last year, the Ravens finished as the #14 Team QB, and they finished #12 in 2010. I think it’s possible that they will take a small step up the ladder this year, but even if not, this feels like a safe pick. Expecting playoff points.
6.16 Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – 36th WR taken. Finished as WR #30 last year, despite missing 1 game. Hoping he will maintain or improve slightly with a full season (and offseason) with Palmer. Not expecting playoff points.
7.1 Isaac Redman, RB, PIT – 22nd RB taken, and my first… only Kruppe waited longer (by 2 picks). It is indicative of the sea change in the drafting style of this league that the 22nd RB wasn’t taken until the 7th round. Mendenhall finished as RB #22 last season, despite missing 2 games, while Redman finished #42 and Dwyer, Moore, and Clay combined to add another 50 points. I’m expecting Redman to at least match Mendenhall’s performance last year. Expecting playoff points.
8.16 Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – 38th RB taken. Steal at this position if he is reasonably healthy. He finished as RB #20 last year despite missing 2 games. He is coming off knee surgery, but every indication is that he will be ready to start the season. He seems to have been discounted not only due to health concerns but also due to the return of Williams, but Williams is effectively a rookie and is returning from his own serious injury. No playoff points.
9.1 Titus Young, WR, DET – 44th WR taken. Finished #43 last year while Burleson finished #31. I’m expecting those positions to be reversed this year as Young assumes the #2 role. Good shot at playoff points.
10.16 Bears DST – 8th DST taken. 7 DSTs were taken since my last pick, and I felt a DST run had started. There is typically a 40-50 point dropoff from DST #10 to DST #20, and I figured the run would continue enough that I’d have to accept that dropoff if I didn’t go with DST here. Meanwhile, I really wasn’t excited about the other position prospects here. So I decided to try to do my part to continue and perhaps accelerate the DST run. It didn’t work, as only 4 DSTs went before my next pick. I’d say this was my first major mistake in this draft. Regardless, the Bears DST finished at #4 last season and #5 in 2010, so this was a relatively safe pick. There is a chance at playoff points.
11.1 Jets DST – 9th DST. Finished as DST #6 last season and DST #3 in 2010. Rex is supposedly taking over the playcalling, which I see as a good sign, so, again, solid value here. Playoff points are possible but probably unlikely.
12.16 Dan Bailey, K, DAL – 6th K taken. Finished last season as K #4 and #2 in ppg. Again, I was concerned about being on the wrong end of a K run. In last year’s draft, 27 Ks were taken by my next turn (pick 14.1), and I didn’t want to risk getting stuck with a K at risk of losing the kicking job, which has happened in some years. So I decided to go K-K at this turn. It didn’t turn out to be quite that bad a run, although 23 Ks were gone by 14.1. There is a chance at playoff points.
13.1 Randy Bullock, K, HOU – 7th K taken. Last year, Rackers was the Houston K and finished as K #3. Expecting playoff points.
14.16 Rueben Randle, WR, NYG – 71st WR taken. Steal at this position IMO. Last year, Manningham was the #3 WR for NYG and finished as WR #38. And that was with Ballard finishing as TE #20. Manningham and Ballard are gone, and Nicks is coming off a training camp injury. Big potential here for Randle. Expecting playoff points.
15.1 Steve Smith, WR, STL – Was going to take Bess here, but he was taken with the pick before my turn. Smith is reportedly having a very strong camp and is reportedly in the running for the Rams’ #1 WR role. Good upside for the 72nd WR taken. No playoff points.
16.16 Evan Royster, RB, WAS – 62nd RB drafted. Another potential steal, as he is reportedly in the running to be the starter in Washington. Dominated in limited opportunities last season. No playoff points.
17.1 Zach Miller, TE, SEA – 35th TE drafted. For the third time, Coordinator sniped me, taking my target, Fasano, with the pick before my turn. Not that I think Fasano will be great, but I’d have more confidence in him than in Miller after last season and with Winslow in town. That said, I think there is a decent chance Miller can reach 100 points, which is good value at this point in the draft. Not expecting playoff points.
18.16 Danny Woodhead, RB – Mr. Irrelevant. 64th RB taken. Finished as RB #49 last season and #27 in 2010. Hoping for 75+ points, including playoff points.
I'm not thrilled with this team, but I think it could contend. I think there will be a good number of playoff performers. As always, staying on the field will be the key.