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Doug Baldwin

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1 hour ago, C-Bound said:

Learned my lesson also benching him for MVS.  He's locked in WR3 for me going forward.

I don't think I'd be so quick to lock him into my lineup. I started him last night but only because I saw a high likelihood of a shootout. I don't see another shootout in their future til week 16 vs KC. 

Mayyyybe @CAR or vs MIN, but those could easily become defensive grinds where they abandon the pass.

Although... just to play devil's advocate with myself here lol... Baldwin saw just 2 targets in the second half last night, despite the team still passing. So the majority of his production came in the first half, which bodes well for pretty much any game going forward as they likely won't abandon the pass entirely until the second half.

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Bob Condotta‏ @bcondotta

Seahawks GM John Schneider hints on pregame radio show on @710ESPNSeattle that Doug Baldwin will be on a little of a pitch count as he nurses groin injury today. @StacyRost #royalhelping

 

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Panning out to the biggest roster spot anchor of the year.

Not sure there is any reason to hold; hindsight being what it is, not worth drafting or having kept him this long.

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I don't know what to make of Baldwin. He was virtually invisible the entire first half, then ended up with 7 targets or so?

I guess the one thing I can make out of Baldwin is this crazy variance still makes me think that while he may have one out of norm game where he scores, he is kind of unuseable for me in a fantasy sense, as he's simply not a reliable start.

I'd rather drop and shore up depth or streamers (like Yeldon or Justin Jackson) or a potential lottery ticket like Ware, tbh.

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I’m chalking it up to his reaggravated groin and hoping he recovers by next week. 

A fully healthy Baldwin is a beast. 

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Still not trustworthy to me at all.

His target share is affected by the ascendance of both Lockett and Moore, both of whom can stretch the field and gain separation better than Baldwin. The running game has been effective for SEA and they seem to have no problem leveraging a much heavier run:pass ratio than in early years where it was about bootlegs and PA to get Wilson out and creating in space -- he's much more a pocket guy now, whether by design, ability, and/or the way Carroll wants this offense and its personnel to run.

His getting constantly re-injured is part of the game, but clearly affects him, and his production, when it comes, is erratic and unpredictable.

If anything, the only thing I can see is that since their bye, Baldwin has been better at home than on the road, but not sure that's a trend we can rely upon as opposed to that's how match up and scheduling work out.

I don't think he'll be reliable to bank on ROS, and truth be told, his time as an incredibly productive receiver as he has been in years' past may be just that -- in the past.

 

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Doug Baldwin (hip) caught 4-of-6 passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns in the Seahawks' Week 15 overtime loss to the 49ers.

Baldwin looked healthy, especially after 49ers CB Ahkello Witherspoon left the game in the first quarter. Just minutes after Witherspoon was sent to the locker room, Baldwin scored an easy touchdown with a backup rookie chasing him around. Baldwin then caught a 35-yard touchdown thanks to another poor job by the 49ers secondary. With the Chiefs coming to town, Baldwin will have an elevated ceiling in a game that should be more high scoring than the typical Seahawks contest, but inconsistent volume will keep Baldwin as an upside WR3.

Dec 16 - 9:10 PM

 

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Does he bounce back next season?  I loved the guy coming into 2018, but injuries ruined his season.  He's 30 and been dealing with nagging injuries off and on.  He's obviously a great bounce back candidate, but at what point do you start looking at him?  I feel like he'll be a WR3 in drafts next season, with the upside to be a WR2.  

I worry Lockett continues to blossom and eat into his share.

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6 hours ago, jm192 said:

Does he bounce back next season?  I loved the guy coming into 2018, but injuries ruined his season.  He's 30 and been dealing with nagging injuries off and on.  He's obviously a great bounce back candidate, but at what point do you start looking at him?  I feel like he'll be a WR3 in drafts next season, with the upside to be a WR2.  

I worry Lockett continues to blossom and eat into his share.

I think so.

He went from 4 seasons in a row of 100 targets to this season where he only had 73. He missed 3 games and had an injury that lingered through the season but he was still on pace for 90 targets. not that far off where he has been for many seasons now.

The thing that is perhaps more of a concern is that WIlson only had 427 pass attempts. He hasn't thrown that few passes since 2013. The last two seasons Wilson had been throwing it about 550 times per game. A bigger pie for all the receivers in that scenario. Running the ball was effective for them and they made the playoffs after an offseason where they lost a lot of star players and looked more like a rebuilding year.

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12 hours ago, jm192 said:

Does he bounce back next season?  I loved the guy coming into 2018, but injuries ruined his season.  He's 30 and been dealing with nagging injuries off and on.  He's obviously a great bounce back candidate, but at what point do you start looking at him?  I feel like he'll be a WR3 in drafts next season, with the upside to be a WR2.  

I worry Lockett continues to blossom and eat into his share.

Probably. He'll turn 31 next season, but the gradual drop off for WRs doesn't typically begin until 32, so 2019 should be the final year of his prime. This year can almost certainly be written off to injury. As long as he's healthy next season, he should return to his usual points per target. The main problem will be the targets, though. They did ok this year running the ball, but then this happened. Hopefully it woke them up. Seattle pass attempts the past 5 years:
2014-454
2015-489
2016-565
2017-528
2018-427

Hard to criticize them too much, though, as they did make it into the playoffs and Wilson still threw 35 TDs and only 7 INT. 

Baldwin and Lockett are complementary players so they really shouldn't cannibalize targets from each other. They should, in theory, be most effective when the other is doing their thing well. If Seattle throws the ball merely 500 times, I think they each could get 100 targets and finish as WR2s. Lockett could actually finish as a WR1 if he were to get 100 targets, which would be pretty rare given that WR1s usually have 130+ targets, but the guy is just that efficient (not that Baldwin isn't - he's caught over 70% of his targets in several seasons). 

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Baldwin definitely frustrated me this year and I was ready to give up on him (of course, taking injuries into account) but his usage in the last few games of the year where Wilson targeted him in key situations renewed my faith that I’ll hopefully have a WR2 in him next season.  But I’ll be ready to trade him away if my team falters next season and Baldwin is doing well.  

Edited by joey

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