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Doug Baldwin

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I'm rebuilding in a dynasty. Do you think what we are seeing is the "real" Baldwin or would you try to move him while he's at top value?

I think this carries forward. Wilson loves him and finally has built immense chemistry with him. Lockett is obviously more talented, but even if he picks it up I think he's going to keep going to Baldwin. Seattle is becoming a passing team and could support two very strong receiving options. Could be a Fitz/Boldin type situation.

He's a must start today right? Right????

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I'm rebuilding in a dynasty. Do you think what we are seeing is the "real" Baldwin or would you try to move him while he's at top value?

I think this carries forward. Wilson loves him and finally has built immense chemistry with him. Lockett is obviously more talented, but even if he picks it up I think he's going to keep going to Baldwin. Seattle is becoming a passing team and could support two very strong receiving options. Could be a Fitz/Boldin type situation.

He's a must start today right? Right????

He is if he starts and is healthy enough. Therein lies the million dollar question. At some point he's got to come back to earth though. Even the great Jerry Rice didn't score every week.

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I picked up both Dwayne Harris and Marvin Jones as a hedge. Don't know if they're available but would cover you in event of a late scratch. It's hard to sit Baldwin....10 TDs in 4 weeks and you bench him? That takes guts, but yeah at some point he regresses. Just hope it's not this week and I wouldn't bet against him.

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Seattle is becoming a passing team and could support two very strong receiving options. Could be a Fitz/Boldin type situation.

I've read this and debated it with others. I don't think its as true as people think it is.

Seattle is 2nd is rushing attempts. They are 30th in passing attempts. This is a coaching staff that very much prefers to run the ball if given a choice of how the game plays out.

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Seattle is becoming a passing team and could support two very strong receiving options. Could be a Fitz/Boldin type situation.

I've read this and debated it with others. I don't think its as true as people think it is.

Seattle is 2nd is rushing attempts. They are 30th in passing attempts. This is a coaching staff that very much prefers to run the ball if given a choice of how the game plays out.

At the rate he's catching TDs, almost don't care if they run other 80-90 yards as long as they keep passing for TDs

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At the rate he's catching TDs, almost don't care if they run other 80-90 yards as long as they keep passing for TDs

Here's the thing. Which stats are better indicators for predicting future outcomes? Aren't touchdowns a bit more chaotic than catches and yards. That said, he's receiving numbers have been up across the board, but I still have my doubts. Won't be surprised to see this sudden burst of TDs come to a sudden halt. As a Seattle fan I hope he keeps scoring TDs, but I don't expect it to happen.

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Im not sold on the RB situation right now in SEA. I think we still see plenty of passing TD's today out of Wilson. Had Lockett and just grabbed Kearse in case Baldwin comes up lame in pre-game or is just a decoy today. Will see how the 1pm EST games go before decision made but if behind greatly might roll the dice with both and hope for a shootout like earlier this year.

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At the rate he's catching TDs, almost don't care if they run other 80-90 yards as long as they keep passing for TDs

Here's the thing. Which stats are better indicators for predicting future outcomes? Aren't touchdowns a bit more chaotic than catches and yards. That said, he's receiving numbers have been up across the board, but I still have my doubts. Won't be surprised to see this sudden burst of TDs come to a sudden halt. As a Seattle fan I hope he keeps scoring TDs, but I don't expect it to happen.

Sure sure, but like Freeman earlier, ya gotta ride that TD streak as long as ya can

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SEA

#2 Rushing Attempts/gm 31

#2 Rushing Yards 147/gm

#18 Rushing TDs 9

#30 Passing Attempts 29/gm

#20 Passing Yards 237/gm

#7 Passing TDs 29

Yes Seattle is #2 in rushing attempts and only #30 in passing attempts but it's all about how they score. They rush to set up passing TDs. Even though they're #30 in passing attempts they're #20 in passing yards and #7 in passing TD's so they're more efficient in the air at picking up yards (this is a passing league) and scoring. Until the trend changes I will ride the trend.

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You can disregard my opinion. Baldwin must made two great plays on that TD drive. Super cool. His effort on 3rd and long kept a drive going.

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Doug Baldwin caught his 11th touchdown pass in five games to become the fourth player in league history to do that.

Wish these stories would name the other three...

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Underrated in FF, but that's good money. Similar annual rate as what Maclin got as a free agent. Are they really going to pay him over $100k/target or will they be passing more this year? If he can get 120 targets, he's efficient enough to squeak into the top 12.

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

Underrated in FF, but that's good money. Similar annual rate as what Maclin got as a free agent. Are they really going to pay him over $100k/target or will they be passing more this year? If he can get 120 targets, he's efficient enough to squeak into the top 12.

Agreed. I wonder if this means more passing attempts in that offense. The deal for Baldwin, the talking up of Lockett, no more Lynch, etc. Seems like Seattle may start opening up the offense more now. Might not be a bad idea to get Wilson, Lockett, and Baldwin at their current values and watch them soar.

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1 minute ago, MattFancy said:

Agreed. I wonder if this means more passing attempts in that offense. The deal for Baldwin, the talking up of Lockett, no more Lynch, etc. Seems like Seattle may start opening up the offense more now. Might not be a bad idea to get Wilson, Lockett, and Baldwin at their current values and watch them soar.

Keep in mind they paid Kearse some pretty decent money ($4.5M/year for 3 years), too. They also have Jimmy Graham supposedly back to full health. I am pretty down on Graham, but he'll still command some targets if he's healthy. I really like Baldwin and Lockett, but I am not sure both of them will get the targets they need to have the upside I would want out of them. Too many mouths to feed unless Seattle turns into a 600 PA team.

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Keep in mind they paid Kearse some pretty decent money ($4.5M/year for 3 years), too. They also have Jimmy Graham supposedly back to full health. I am pretty down on Graham, but he'll still command some targets if he's healthy. I really like Baldwin and Lockett, but I am not sure both of them will get the targets they need to have the upside I would want out of them. Too many mouths to feed unless Seattle turns into a 600 PA team.

Fair point. Though, I definitely want to see some of Graham before I start to trust him. That's a tough injury to come back from.

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A team-first, high character guy - I don't see him getting lazy now that he's been paid. Baldwin really forged a bond with Wilson after the bye week last year and his skill set (super quick, ability to improvise) really complements Wilson's game.  They say Graham will be ready but I highly doubt he will be effective this season coming off a patella.  Baldwin is clearly Wilson's first option in the passing game and I see his catches and yards increasing while his TDs regress.  90/1200/10.  Very underrated IMO.  

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Same money as Maclin, what 2 years ago?   Sounds right to me.

 Is he overpaid?  Meh, maybe a little,  and maybe right now.  

If he is in that Brandon Marshall range, not a true game changer but a WR1, that's a good deal. 

Marvin Jones gets 27 mill over next three years. 

 I doubt this deal looks bad in a year. 

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What has he really accomplished besides one good year in the NFL? Before last year he was average at best and he played 4 seasons. He cashed in and I will not fault him for that, but he is over paid.

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They aren't paying him for his first 4 years,  they're paying him for the next 4.

What,  did he accidentally catch those TDs last year?  Did all those cornerbacks slip and fall? 

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19 minutes ago, massraider said:

Same money as Maclin, what 2 years ago?   Sounds right to me.

 Is he overpaid?  Meh, maybe a little,  and maybe right now.  

If he is in that Brandon Marshall range, not a true game changer but a WR1, that's a good deal. 

Marvin Jones gets 27 mill over next three years. 

 I doubt this deal looks bad in a year. 

One year ago. Maclin is 11/yr and Baldwin is 11.5/yr which accounts for the cap increase. I think both are good players, so it sounds fair to me. Was just pointing out the nearest comp. It is even more impressive that he negotiated that as an extension rather than while on the open market like Maclin was.

Marvin Jones averages out to $8M/year, so this is much better money.

I'm undecided, but the people in the Lockett thread seem to think Baldwin will be the WR2 in 2016 or 2017, so if that's the case, Baldwin will be overpaid from a team perspective.

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13 minutes ago, WheelsUp said:

What has he really accomplished besides one good year in the NFL? Before last year he was average at best and he played 4 seasons. He cashed in and I will not fault him for that, but he is over paid.

The bolded isn't true. Baldwin has been very effective in 4 of his 5 seasons in the league. The fact that his total receptions, yards, and TDs weren't among league leaders before last season had more to do with how low the passing attempts have been in Seattle during Baldwin's career than any other factor. I have posted about how well he played for a few years now.

All that said, while I expect he will remain very effective in NFL terms, IMO he is very unlikely to ever again come close to his 2015 season fantasy-wise. I think Lockett will surpass him no later than next season, maybe this season.

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6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I'm undecided, but the people in the Lockett thread seem to think Baldwin will be the WR2 in 2016 or 2017, so if that's the case, Baldwin will be overpaid from a team perspective.

Perhaps, but you also have to realize that Baldwin is a leader in the locker room, and that is one of the reasons they are paying him. Lockett may surpass him in statistics, but that won't affect Baldwin's leadership.

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Just now, Just Win Baby said:

Perhaps, but you also have to realize that Baldwin is a leader in the locker room, and that is one of the reasons they are paying him. Lockett may surpass him in statistics, but that won't affect Baldwin's leadership.

What's your prediction for those two guys this year? Not looking for a hard number projection. Just curious of where you think they'll land in the pecking order and if you think there will be enough targets to go around between Baldwin, Kearse, Lockett, and Graham.

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IMO this will go down as one of the worst extensions ever given to a WR. He caught fire after failing to be anything for multiple years. He is mediocre WR that just cashed in much like Pierre Garcon or Mike Wallace.

As a Cardinal Fan I love it, all that money wrapped up in Baldwin and Graham.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

What's your prediction for those two guys this year? Not looking for a hard number projection. Just curious of where you think they'll land in the pecking order and if you think there will be enough targets to go around between Baldwin, Kearse, Lockett, and Graham.

I'll take a stab without putting metrics behind it. Baldwin is a solid receiver, but nowhere near elite skills in terms of speed, separation, hands, measurables, etc. He benefitted from being the best receiver on a subpar squad for the last few years, and has clearly matured in terms of his game and overall (meltdown on being called subpar by Cris Carter, the poopdown celebration, etc.). 

He will likely still lead in overall targets and receptions unless the Seahawks change their offensive attack to leverage Graham to his fullest. But I do expect Graham to see a surge in usage, and can see the team utilizing Lockett's athleticism more. Kearse will also get his as last in the pecking order. 

As a result, Baldwin won't repeat a career-high 2015 performance this year and sink back to his statistical mean, and will likely see fewer targets as a result of guys like Graham and Lockett continuing to be utilized more in the offense.

There's value there, to be sure, but not at present ADP.

 

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

That's where people are with Lockett? He's going to pass Baldwin? He's going to be a WR1?

 

OK then.  

That's where smart people are. ;)

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20 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I'll take a stab without putting metrics behind it. Baldwin is a solid receiver, but nowhere near elite skills in terms of speed, separation, hands, measurables, etc. He benefitted from being the best receiver on a subpar squad for the last few years, and has clearly matured in terms of his game and overall (meltdown on being called subpar by Cris Carter, the poopdown celebration, etc.). 

He will likely still lead in overall targets and receptions unless the Seahawks change their offensive attack to leverage Graham to his fullest. But I do expect Graham to see a surge in usage, and can see the team utilizing Lockett's athleticism more. Kearse will also get his as last in the pecking order. 

As a result, Baldwin won't repeat a career-high 2015 performance this year and sink back to his statistical mean, and will likely see fewer targets as a result of guys like Graham and Lockett continuing to be utilized more in the offense.

There's value there, to be sure, but not at present ADP.

Thanks. It's hard for me to fathom them paying him $11.5M/year to get less than 100 targets. My perception could be wrong, but I think of Seattle as smarter than that with their money.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

What's your prediction for those two guys this year? Not looking for a hard number projection. Just curious of where you think they'll land in the pecking order and if you think there will be enough targets to go around between Baldwin, Kearse, Lockett, and Graham.

IMO Lockett's usage will go up. It has already been announced he will start over Kearse.

Last season, the Seahawks had 234 passing attempts in the first 8 games and 255 in the last 8 games. It seems reasonable to project 500-520 passing attempts, with some potential for more. I'll assume 500 to be conservative.

Off the top of my head, I expect targets to break down something like this by position group:

  • WR - 295
  • TE - 125 (assuming Graham targets are lower in the first half of the season, keeping overall TE targets down)
  • RB - 80

Further breaking down WR targets, assuming all of the named WRs stay healthy, I expect something like this:

  • Baldwin - 100
  • Lockett - 95
  • Kearse - 65
  • Richardson - 25
  • Others - 10

Lockett had 69 targets last season, and Baldwin had 103. So I see Lockett getting a significant increase and Baldwin holding steady. But I think TD distribution will be distributed quite differently than last season. So I expect Baldwin will not offer good value at his ADP, and Lockett will.

Of course, Seattle could theoretically throw quite a bit more, and another 50 attempts would significantly boost the value for both of these guys.

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Sure is nice to get out that little sports car and drive it around, but you'll still put most miles on your old dependable truck. You should appreciate your truck. 

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

That's where people are with Lockett? He's going to pass Baldwin? He's going to be a WR1?

 

OK then.  

Not everybody, but there is a contingent of people that think he'll overtake Baldwin as WR1 for the Seahawks. Not sure if they think he'll be a FF WR1, though. Personally, I have come to like Lockett, but don't feel confident that he'll make that leap in 2016.

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13 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Thanks. It's hard for me to fathom them paying him $11.5M/year to get less than 100 targets. My perception could be wrong, but I think of Seattle as smarter than that with their money.

OK, decided not to be lazy and look at actual stats. And I guess based on historical data, 100 targets would be a safe assumption. Here is trailing 3-yr target data for the Seahawks from Teamrankings.com:

2013

Overall Target Rank Name Team Position Targets
36 Golden Tate Seattle Seahawks WR 114
65 Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks WR 88
        202

 

2014

Overall Target Rank Name Team Position Targets
36 Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks WR 112
77 Jermaine Kearse Seattle Seahawks WR 84
84 Percy Harvin Seattle Seahawks WR 78
        274

 

Overall Target Rank Name Team Position Targets
30 Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks WR 122
61 Jermaine Kearse Seattle Seahawks WR 87
76 Tyler Lockett Seattle Seahawks WR 78
84 Jimmy Graham Seattle Seahawks TE 74
        361

 

Going by that, Seahawks have increased their passing targets overall, and Baldwin safely had 100+ targets each year with an increasing trend. My bet is that his efficiency will go down from career all time highs, and we'll see a higher distribution of targets allocated to Graham and Locket this year. Kearse was effective, but they really underutilized Graham and Lockett as well. 

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1 minute ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

OK, decided not to be lazy and look at actual stats. And I guess based on historical data, 100 targets would be a safe assumption. Here is trailing 3-yr target data for the Seahawks from Teamrankings.com:

Going by that, Seahawks have increased their passing targets overall, and Baldwin safely had 100+ targets each year with an increasing trend. My bet is that his efficiency will go down from career all time highs, and we'll see a higher distribution of targets allocated to Graham and Locket this year. Kearse was effective, but they really underutilized Graham and Lockett as well. 

Thanks for looking that up, but that must include playoffs. Golden Tate only had 99 regular season target in 2013. Baldwin had 98 and 103 the last two years.

I expect Baldwin's TDs to normalize, but he's always been a very efficient receiver and Wilson is an efficient passer. With additional weapons (Graham/Lockett) he shouldn't see his efficiency decrease very much.

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11 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

IMO Lockett's usage will go up. It has already been announced he will start over Kearse.

Last season, the Seahawks had 234 passing attempts in the first 8 games and 255 in the last 8 games. It seems reasonable to project 500-520 passing attempts, with some potential for more. I'll assume 500 to be conservative.

Off the top of my head, I expect targets to break down something like this by position group:

  • WR - 295
  • TE - 125 (assuming Graham targets are lower in the first half of the season, keeping overall TE targets down)
  • RB - 80

Further breaking down WR targets, assuming all of the named WRs stay healthy, I expect something like this:

  • Baldwin - 100
  • Lockett - 95
  • Kearse - 65
  • Richardson - 25
  • Others - 10

Lockett had 69 targets last season, and Baldwin had 103. So I see Lockett getting a significant increase and Baldwin holding steady. But I think TD distribution will be distributed quite differently than last season. So I expect Baldwin will not offer good value at his ADP, and Lockett will.

Of course, Seattle could theoretically throw quite a bit more, and another 50 attempts would significantly boost the value for both of these guys.

I had no doubt Lockett was going to start. If you are right about Lockett's targets, he's going to be a very nice pick at around WR38. I'm surprised you don't think Baldwin will offer good value at WR24, though. 900/8 or 1000/7 would probably justify his ADP. Should something happen (like you said, SEA could throw more) and he gets more targets than last year, he could easily reach 1100/9. His contract insinuates he'll get enough usage to at least meet his ADP.

If you really think Graham's targets will increase in the 2nd half then that should make you a little wary of the WRs if you expect their targets to dip when the FF games start to matter more.

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Whoa, some are really defensive of Baldwin. I dont know if they slipped and fall or if he accidentally got all those TDs last year, but he sure didnt do it any of the years before and no CBs must have slipped. When you score 14 TDs in one year, when you scored 15 the 4 years prior to that you can call it an outlier. Never had a 1000 yard season before last year. I do believe things can change, but as of now he is over paid.

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Looked up some of the contracts for reference.

 

  • Baldwin got 4 years, $46 million, $24.25 million guaranteed.
  • Allen Hurns just got 4 years, $40 million, $20 million guaranteed.
  • Maclin's contract, signed last year was 5 years, $55 million, $22.5 million guaranteed.

I was doing this with the intention of saying that Baldwin's deal was more Allen Hurns than Maclin.  However Baldwin got the most guaranteed money which is the most important part of the contract imo, so it does seem more like WR1 money (a la Maclin) not WR2 money (Hurns).

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6 hours ago, Monsters of the Midway said:

Looked up some of the contracts for reference.

 

  • Baldwin got 4 years, $46 million, $24.25 million guaranteed.
  • Allen Hurns just got 4 years, $40 million, $20 million guaranteed.
  • Maclin's contract, signed last year was 5 years, $55 million, $22.5 million guaranteed.

I was doing this with the intention of saying that Baldwin's deal was more Allen Hurns than Maclin.  However Baldwin got the most guaranteed money which is the most important part of the contract imo, so it does seem more like WR1 money (a la Maclin) not WR2 money (Hurns).

12 million fully guaranteed,  another 12 for injury. 

His base salary in 2019 is less than 11 mill.  

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On 6/29/2016 at 1:25 PM, FF Ninja said:

Thanks for looking that up, but that must include playoffs. Golden Tate only had 99 regular season target in 2013. Baldwin had 98 and 103 the last two years.

I expect Baldwin's TDs to normalize, but he's always been a very efficient receiver and Wilson is an efficient passer. With additional weapons (Graham/Lockett) he shouldn't see his efficiency decrease very much.

Man... @FF Ninja actually talking analysis with @Stompin' Tom Connors. This is what I love about offseason Shark Pool 

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Alright I think I'm ready to say I've been wrong about Doug Baldwin. Dudes been a legit top 10 WR for almost a year straight now and he's continuing his impressive numbers this year. I can't deny it anymore. LOL

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