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rickyg

The Best arguments against drafting a QB in the 1st or 2nd rounds

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So I am pretty sure that I've made my choice for how I am going to approach my draft this year and, as tantalizing as these elite QBs are to start off anchoring my team with, I've decided that I am going to wait on a QB and here is why:

1) people who draft Rodgers, Brady, brees, stafford, and even newton (to an extent) in the first 2 rounds are chasing last years stats. Last years stats, the more I think about it, were an anomaly. I know that the trend has been that the NFL is becoming a passing league for several years now. I acknowledge that. But come on...3 guys (I think) eclipsed 5000 yards passing...THREE! Two guys broke Marino's long standing record! Several others came close to 5000 yds! Do we really think that the lockout and the general unpreparedness of NFL defenses due to the lockout last year did not contribute to those outlandish numbers in a big way?

With a full offseason and preseason, you can be sure that defenses will come to the table much better prepared this season, and my best educated guess is that we will see a dropoff from last years pinball numbers. So anyone who drafts arodg, Brady, or brees in round 1 will have an elite qb no doubt, but they will surely be disappointed if they are expecting a repeat of 2011 IMO.

2) when have we ever witnessed a QB have a record breaking elite season and then go on to repeat anything even close to that the next season? Manning had that insane year and regressed to HIS mean the next. Brady was a g-d in 2007 and I think was injured and missed the 2008 season, then was back to his avg or below in 2009. Why should the 2011 guys be different? The types of seasons that these qbs had last year won't be repeated. If it does get repeated I will be 100% sold that it wasn't an anomaly.

3) taking a stud QB early means missing out on a stud RB, a position that is way thin this year.

4) with guys like Vick, romo, Eli, Payton, rivers, Ryan, and even rgIII going after the 4th round you can draft a studly rb/wr/te lineup and still get a great qb with huge upside later between rounds 4-8.

Finally, I will say that the only QB from last years ridiculousness that I think will NOT regress is can newton, and that is because if how special he is with running the ball and the rushing Tds. I think can can come close to his production last year again this year and maybe even beat it.

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Having the 3rd pick, I am pretty locked in on one of the top 3 RB's...However I can't blame anyone for playing it safe and rolling with Rodgers, Brady or Brees after that. It seems there is a big group of 2nd tier RB's with warts, and if I was a team with a pick after 3, I would be locking up either an elite QB or Calvin and then rolling the dice on a RB with warts in the 2nd.

I do agree with you that the elite QB numbers will come somewhat back down to earth, but the top 3 should still be enough ahead of the pack that it will be worth it....so in theory I think alot of waiting on a QB or going QB first will have to do with where you draft.

As for Cam, I was an owner last year and loved every minute of it....however spending a 2nd rounder on him makes me a bit nervous. I'm sure Tolbert was brought in to take the goalline chores, so 14 rushing TD's by Cam is very unlikley....I would say 8-9 is about what I would expect....and that drop off will have to be picked up somewhere. Expecting him to increase his passing yards after having a 4,000 yard season is a stretch...He could increase his passing TD's some, but Carolina really didn't try to add him any weapons..I love this guy, but I am just not sure I an pull the trigger on him in the 2nd.

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After the top 5 RBs on my board, there's a ton of question marks. I'd prefer taking a safe pick with Calvin Johnson or Rodgers/Brady/Brees.

I think taking Gronk/Graham in rounds 1 or 2 is chasing last year's stats more than taking quarterbacks early.

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Picking #3 in 12 team PPR, 6 pts per all TDs, and start 2RB/3WR/No Flex, and I'm very strongly considering going Rodgers, especially if Foster/Rice go off 1 and 2.

You make good points, but the comfort, locked in points, still with a huge weekly ceiling of Rodgers, Brady, and Brees has an invaluable number to it. You never have to play around with your QBs, you don't even have to CARRY a 2nd one (I won't) and you simply plug and play, and wait for your 30 points every week from your 1st round draft pick.

I also hate having to use that 4-7 pick on one of your aforementioned "great" QBs of Ryan/Rivers/Romo/Eli/Peyton because I am LOVING cleaning up in those rounds on RB & WR while people hustle to make sure they aren't stuck without their QB when the game of Musical Chairs inevitably stops.

Everything you say does make sense as an argument against it, but I'll take my money in the bank production (I'm not even looking for 5000 & 50 like some of those people) and round out my lineup AROUND that stud player.

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Finally, I will say that the only QB from last years ridiculousness that I think will NOT regress is can newton, and that is because if how special he is with running the ball and the rushing Tds. I think can can come close to his production last year again this year and maybe even beat it.

See Vick and Vince Young. I learned from thinking those td are there to stay, even though Cam runs like Adrien Peterson.

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In our league QBs are the highest scoring position and we're allowed to start 2 (one as a flex). Most likely there will be 7 QBs taken in the 1st round and probably another 5 or 6 in the 2ns round. If I wait until the 3rd round my starting QB will likely be Alex Smith, Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco and I shudder to think who would be my backup.

I am picking 8th and so I may not go with a QB in the first round but I will definitely be grabbing one in the 2nd round.

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Regression... no off season last year for defenses.

I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities...

2011

Passing TD

1. Drew Brees* · NOR 46

2. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 45

3. Matthew Stafford · DET 41

4. Tom Brady* · NWE 39

5. Tony Romo · DAL 31

6. Eli Manning* · NYG 29

Matt Ryan · ATL 29

8. Philip Rivers* · SDG 27

9. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 26

10. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 24

2010

Passing TD

1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 36

2. Drew Brees* · NOR 33

Peyton Manning* · IND 33

4. Eli Manning · NYG 31

5. Philip Rivers* · SDG 30

6. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 28

Matt Ryan* · ATL 28

8. Matt Cassel* · KAN 27

9. Carson Palmer · CIN 26

10. Joe Flacco · BAL 25

Josh Freeman · TAM 25

2010

Passes Intercepted

1. Eli Manning · NYG 25

2. Drew Brees* · NOR 22

3. Carson Palmer · CIN 20

4. Brett Favre · MIN 19

Chad Henne · MIA 19

6. Matt Hasselbeck · SEA 17

Peyton Manning* · IND 17

8. Jay Cutler · CHI 16

9. Sam Bradford · STL 15

Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 15

David Garrard · JAX 15

Donovan McNabb · WAS 15

2011

Passes Intercepted

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 23

2. Josh Freeman · TAM 22

3. Rex Grossman · WAS 20

Philip Rivers* · SDG 20

5. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 18

6. Cam Newton · CAR 17

7. Eli Manning* · NYG 16

Carson Palmer · OAK 16

Matthew Stafford · DET 16

10. Drew Brees* · NOR 14

Matt Hasselbeck · TEN 14

Ben Roethlisberger* 14

John Skelton · ARI 14

Michael Vick · PHI 14

2011

Passing Yds

1. Drew Brees* · NOR 5476

2. Tom Brady* · NWE 5235

3. Matthew Stafford · DET 5038

4. Eli Manning* · NYG 4933

5. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 4643

6. Philip Rivers* · SDG 4624

7. Tony Romo · DAL 4184

8. Matt Ryan · ATL 4177

9. Ben Roethlisberger* · 4077

10. Cam Newton · CAR 4051

2010

Passing Yds

1. Philip Rivers* · SDG 4710

2. Peyton Manning* · IND 4700

3. Drew Brees* · NOR 4620

4. Matt Schaub · HOU 4370

5. Eli Manning · NYG 4002

6. Carson Palmer · CIN 3970

7. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 3922

8. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 3900

9. Matt Ryan* · ATL 3705

10. Kyle Orton · DEN 3653

2010

Pass Attempts

1. Peyton Manning* · IND 679

2. Drew Brees* · NOR 658

3. Sam Bradford · STL 590

4. Carson Palmer · CIN 586

5. Matt Schaub · HOU 574

6. Matt Ryan* · ATL 571

7. Philip Rivers* · SDG 541

8. Eli Manning · NYG 539

9. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 507

10. Kyle Orton · DEN 498

2011

Pass Attempts

1. Matthew Stafford · DET 663

2. Drew Brees* · NOR 657

3. Tom Brady* · NWE 611

4. Eli Manning* · NYG 589

5. Philip Rivers* · SDG 582

6. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 569

7. Matt Ryan · ATL 566

8. Josh Freeman · TAM 551

9. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 543

10. Joe Flacco · BAL 542

2011

Passer Rating

1. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 122.5

2. Drew Brees* · NOR 110.6

3. Tom Brady* · NWE 105.6

4. Tony Romo · DAL 102.5

5. Matthew Stafford · DET 97.2

6. Matt Schaub · HOU 96.8

7. Eli Manning* · NYG 92.9

8. Matt Ryan · ATL 92.2

9. Alex Smith · SFO 90.7

10. Ben Roethlisberger* · 90.1

2010

Passer Rating

1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 111.0

2. Philip Rivers* · SDG 101.8

3. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 101.2

4. Michael Vick* · PHI 100.2

5. Ben Roethlisberger · 97.0

6. Josh Freeman · TAM 95.9

7. Joe Flacco · BAL 93.6

8. Matt Cassel* · KAN 93.0

9. Matt Schaub · HOU 92.0

10. Peyton Manning* · IND 91.9

That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future.

I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year?

I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

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Regression... no off season last year for defenses.I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities...2011Passing TD1. Drew Brees* · NOR 462. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 453. Matthew Stafford · DET 414. Tom Brady* · NWE 395. Tony Romo · DAL 316. Eli Manning* · NYG 29 Matt Ryan · ATL 298. Philip Rivers* · SDG 279. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 2610. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 24201Passing TD1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 362. Drew Brees* · NOR 33 Peyton Manning* · IND 334. Eli Manning · NYG 315. Philip Rivers* · SDG 306. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 28 Matt Ryan* · ATL 288. Matt Cassel* · KAN 279. Carson Palmer · CIN 2610. Joe Flacco · BAL 25 Josh Freeman · TAM 252010Passes Intercepted1. Eli Manning · NYG 252. Drew Brees* · NOR 223. Carson Palmer · CIN 204. Brett Favre · MIN 19 Chad Henne · MIA 196. Matt Hasselbeck · SEA 17 Peyton Manning* · IND 178. Jay Cutler · CHI 169. Sam Bradford · STL 15 Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 15 David Garrard · JAX 15 Donovan McNabb · WAS 152011Passes Intercepted1. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 232. Josh Freeman · TAM 223. Rex Grossman · WAS 20 Philip Rivers* · SDG 205. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 186. Cam Newton · CAR 177. Eli Manning* · NYG 16 Carson Palmer · OAK 16 Matthew Stafford · DET 1610. Drew Brees* · NOR 14 Matt Hasselbeck · TEN 14 Ben Roethlisberger* 14 John Skelton · ARI 14 Michael Vick · PHI 142011Passing Yds1. Drew Brees* · NOR 54762. Tom Brady* · NWE 52353. Matthew Stafford · DET 50384. Eli Manning* · NYG 49335. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 46436. Philip Rivers* · SDG 46247. Tony Romo · DAL 41848. Matt Ryan · ATL 41779. Ben Roethlisberger* · 407710. Cam Newton · CAR 40512010Passing Yds1. Philip Rivers* · SDG 47102. Peyton Manning* · IND 47003. Drew Brees* · NOR 46204. Matt Schaub · HOU 43705. Eli Manning · NYG 40026. Carson Palmer · CIN 39707. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 39228. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 39009. Matt Ryan* · ATL 370510. Kyle Orton · DEN 36532010Pass Attempts1. Peyton Manning* · IND 6792. Drew Brees* · NOR 6583. Sam Bradford · STL 5904. Carson Palmer · CIN 5865. Matt Schaub · HOU 5746. Matt Ryan* · ATL 5717. Philip Rivers* · SDG 5418. Eli Manning · NYG 5399. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 50710. Kyle Orton · DEN 4982011Pass Attempts1. Matthew Stafford · DET 6632. Drew Brees* · NOR 6573. Tom Brady* · NWE 6114. Eli Manning* · NYG 5895. Philip Rivers* · SDG 5826. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 5697. Matt Ryan · ATL 5668. Josh Freeman · TAM 5519. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 54310. Joe Flacco · BAL 542 2011Passer Rating1. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 122.52. Drew Brees* · NOR 110.63. Tom Brady* · NWE 105.64. Tony Romo · DAL 102.55. Matthew Stafford · DET 97.26. Matt Schaub · HOU 96.87. Eli Manning* · NYG 92.98. Matt Ryan · ATL 92.29. Alex Smith · SFO 90.710. Ben Roethlisberger* · 90.12010Passer Rating1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 111.02. Philip Rivers* · SDG 101.83. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 101.24. Michael Vick* · PHI 100.25. Ben Roethlisberger · 97.06. Josh Freeman · TAM 95.97. Joe Flacco · BAL 93.68. Matt Cassel* · KAN 93.09. Matt Schaub · HOU 92.010. Peyton Manning* · IND 91.9That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future.I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year? I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

Exactly!

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In our league QBs are the highest scoring position and we're allowed to start 2 (one as a flex). Most likely there will be 7 QBs taken in the 1st round and probably another 5 or 6 in the 2ns round. If I wait until the 3rd round my starting QB will likely be Alex Smith, Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco and I shudder to think who would be my backup.I am picking 8th and so I may not go with a QB in the first round but I will definitely be grabbing one in the 2nd round.

2 QB leagues has nothing to do with what I'm sayingI think in 2 Qb leagues the whole first round should be basically filled with them.

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Regression... no off season last year for defenses.I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities...2011Passing TD1. Drew Brees* · NOR 462. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 453. Matthew Stafford · DET 414. Tom Brady* · NWE 395. Tony Romo · DAL 316. Eli Manning* · NYG 29 Matt Ryan · ATL 298. Philip Rivers* · SDG 279. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 2610. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 242010Passing TD1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 362. Drew Brees* · NOR 33 Peyton Manning* · IND 334. Eli Manning · NYG 315. Philip Rivers* · SDG 306. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 28 Matt Ryan* · ATL 288. Matt Cassel* · KAN 279. Carson Palmer · CIN 2610. Joe Flacco · BAL 25 Josh Freeman · TAM 252010Passes Intercepted1. Eli Manning · NYG 252. Drew Brees* · NOR 223. Carson Palmer · CIN 204. Brett Favre · MIN 19 Chad Henne · MIA 196. Matt Hasselbeck · SEA 17 Peyton Manning* · IND 178. Jay Cutler · CHI 169. Sam Bradford · STL 15 Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 15 David Garrard · JAX 15 Donovan McNabb · WAS 152011Passes Intercepted1. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 232. Josh Freeman · TAM 223. Rex Grossman · WAS 20 Philip Rivers* · SDG 205. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 186. Cam Newton · CAR 177. Eli Manning* · NYG 16 Carson Palmer · OAK 16 Matthew Stafford · DET 1610. Drew Brees* · NOR 14 Matt Hasselbeck · TEN 14 Ben Roethlisberger* 14 John Skelton · ARI 14 Michael Vick · PHI 142011Passing Yds1. Drew Brees* · NOR 54762. Tom Brady* · NWE 52353. Matthew Stafford · DET 50384. Eli Manning* · NYG 49335. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 46436. Philip Rivers* · SDG 46247. Tony Romo · DAL 41848. Matt Ryan · ATL 41779. Ben Roethlisberger* · 407710. Cam Newton · CAR 40512010Passing Yds1. Philip Rivers* · SDG 47102. Peyton Manning* · IND 47003. Drew Brees* · NOR 46204. Matt Schaub · HOU 43705. Eli Manning · NYG 40026. Carson Palmer · CIN 39707. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 39228. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 39009. Matt Ryan* · ATL 370510. Kyle Orton · DEN 36532010Pass Attempts1. Peyton Manning* · IND 6792. Drew Brees* · NOR 6583. Sam Bradford · STL 5904. Carson Palmer · CIN 5865. Matt Schaub · HOU 5746. Matt Ryan* · ATL 5717. Philip Rivers* · SDG 5418. Eli Manning · NYG 5399. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 50710. Kyle Orton · DEN 4982011Pass Attempts1. Matthew Stafford · DET 6632. Drew Brees* · NOR 6573. Tom Brady* · NWE 6114. Eli Manning* · NYG 5895. Philip Rivers* · SDG 5826. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 5697. Matt Ryan · ATL 5668. Josh Freeman · TAM 5519. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 54310. Joe Flacco · BAL 542 2011Passer Rating1. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 122.52. Drew Brees* · NOR 110.63. Tom Brady* · NWE 105.64. Tony Romo · DAL 102.55. Matthew Stafford · DET 97.26. Matt Schaub · HOU 96.87. Eli Manning* · NYG 92.98. Matt Ryan · ATL 92.29. Alex Smith · SFO 90.710. Ben Roethlisberger* · 90.12010Passer Rating1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 111.02. Philip Rivers* · SDG 101.83. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 101.24. Michael Vick* · PHI 100.25. Ben Roethlisberger · 97.06. Josh Freeman · TAM 95.97. Joe Flacco · BAL 93.68. Matt Cassel* · KAN 93.09. Matt Schaub · HOU 92.010. Peyton Manning* · IND 91.9That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future.I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year? I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

Great work but now I need you to look at those numbers for the last 5 yrs. you look at last yr as a 1 time phenomena I argue that last yr was just the hight point of a 5 yr trend I believe it was just the next step in the evolution of the passing game. I wonder have the stats gone up increasingly over the last 5 yrs? If they have who says this trend won't continue??

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After the top 5 RBs on my board, there's a ton of question marks. I'd prefer taking a safe pick with Calvin Johnson or Rodgers/Brady/Brees. I think taking Gronk/Graham in rounds 1 or 2 is chasing last year's stats more than taking quarterbacks early.

who are the other 2 RBs without question marks?I'm almost believing the case that after the top 4 guys (3 RBs and Calvin) taking a QB is the the "safe play".

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One reason I like to wait on a QB is to make sure no one else gets an extreme value pick at QB. Clearly if you go first or early second with a QB, you're not going to go after the round 5 value QB too. At least I wouldn't.

Of course, at some point, you need to make the commitment if you perceive the value already out there is too good to pass up. The same concept applies to going RB/RB/RB -- for me, I know this strategy has its fans -- but I don't like that approach because I now have very little to benefit, except injury coverage and trade bait, if I pick a RB in the next several rounds.

A different thought on when to draft QBs, but one that certainly weighs on my mind.

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Regression... no off season last year for defenses.I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities...2011Passing TD1. Drew Brees* · NOR 462. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 453. Matthew Stafford · DET 414. Tom Brady* · NWE 395. Tony Romo · DAL 316. Eli Manning* · NYG 29 Matt Ryan · ATL 298. Philip Rivers* · SDG 279. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 2610. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 242010Passing TD1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 362. Drew Brees* · NOR 33 Peyton Manning* · IND 334. Eli Manning · NYG 315. Philip Rivers* · SDG 306. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 28 Matt Ryan* · ATL 288. Matt Cassel* · KAN 279. Carson Palmer · CIN 2610. Joe Flacco · BAL 25 Josh Freeman · TAM 252010Passes Intercepted1. Eli Manning · NYG 252. Drew Brees* · NOR 223. Carson Palmer · CIN 204. Brett Favre · MIN 19 Chad Henne · MIA 196. Matt Hasselbeck · SEA 17 Peyton Manning* · IND 178. Jay Cutler · CHI 169. Sam Bradford · STL 15 Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 15 David Garrard · JAX 15 Donovan McNabb · WAS 152011Passes Intercepted1. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 232. Josh Freeman · TAM 223. Rex Grossman · WAS 20 Philip Rivers* · SDG 205. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 186. Cam Newton · CAR 177. Eli Manning* · NYG 16 Carson Palmer · OAK 16 Matthew Stafford · DET 1610. Drew Brees* · NOR 14 Matt Hasselbeck · TEN 14 Ben Roethlisberger* 14 John Skelton · ARI 14 Michael Vick · PHI 142011Passing Yds1. Drew Brees* · NOR 54762. Tom Brady* · NWE 52353. Matthew Stafford · DET 50384. Eli Manning* · NYG 49335. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 46436. Philip Rivers* · SDG 46247. Tony Romo · DAL 41848. Matt Ryan · ATL 41779. Ben Roethlisberger* · 407710. Cam Newton · CAR 40512010Passing Yds1. Philip Rivers* · SDG 47102. Peyton Manning* · IND 47003. Drew Brees* · NOR 46204. Matt Schaub · HOU 43705. Eli Manning · NYG 40026. Carson Palmer · CIN 39707. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 39228. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 39009. Matt Ryan* · ATL 370510. Kyle Orton · DEN 36532010Pass Attempts1. Peyton Manning* · IND 6792. Drew Brees* · NOR 6583. Sam Bradford · STL 5904. Carson Palmer · CIN 5865. Matt Schaub · HOU 5746. Matt Ryan* · ATL 5717. Philip Rivers* · SDG 5418. Eli Manning · NYG 5399. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 50710. Kyle Orton · DEN 4982011Pass Attempts1. Matthew Stafford · DET 6632. Drew Brees* · NOR 6573. Tom Brady* · NWE 6114. Eli Manning* · NYG 5895. Philip Rivers* · SDG 5826. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 5697. Matt Ryan · ATL 5668. Josh Freeman · TAM 5519. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 54310. Joe Flacco · BAL 542 2011Passer Rating1. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 122.52. Drew Brees* · NOR 110.63. Tom Brady* · NWE 105.64. Tony Romo · DAL 102.55. Matthew Stafford · DET 97.26. Matt Schaub · HOU 96.87. Eli Manning* · NYG 92.98. Matt Ryan · ATL 92.29. Alex Smith · SFO 90.710. Ben Roethlisberger* · 90.12010Passer Rating1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 111.02. Philip Rivers* · SDG 101.83. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 101.24. Michael Vick* · PHI 100.25. Ben Roethlisberger · 97.06. Josh Freeman · TAM 95.97. Joe Flacco · BAL 93.68. Matt Cassel* · KAN 93.09. Matt Schaub · HOU 92.010. Peyton Manning* · IND 91.9That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future.I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year? I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

Great work but now I need you to look at those numbers for the last 5 yrs. you look at last yr as a 1 time phenomena I argue that last yr was just the hight point of a 5 yr trend I believe it was just the next step in the evolution of the passing game. I wonder have the stats gone up increasingly over the last 5 yrs? If they have who says this trend won't continue??
Now, that is something I agree with. I think eventually... it will probably get to this point and its clearly trending towards this way, even before what happened last year it was. I just don't think were to the point where its ok to be drafting 4 QBs in the first round.

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

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I just don't think were to the point where its ok to be drafting 4 QBs in the first round.

Drafts are heavily league dependent. In some leagues, it makes as much sense now to draft 4 QBs in the first round as it did to draft 10 RBs in the first round about 5-6 years ago.My longest running league has 6 pt TDs for QBs, bonuses for distance scoring and half the yardage points across all positions (i.e., TD heavy). In this format, the draft dominator suggests 4 QBs, 5 RBs, and Calvin as the top ten picks. And I agree with that.

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks.I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

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There is error with this type of thinking

#1) There is an assumption that the top QBS will not score as much (fair enough) but you also assume the other qbs "such as Manning, Romo, etc" will keep their level of scoring, or close the gap compared to the top QBS.

#2) An assumption that rbs drafted later cannot close the gap with the elite rbs.

Eli Manning Threw over 4900 yards in 2011 and a tad over 4000 in 2010--seems like a big difference to me. What's to say HE keeps this up too? Or that he does not regress back to less than 4k passing yards?

What if the top QBS regress, but the lower QBS regress more?

As mentioned before, I will say it again--it comes down to COMFORT. People are more COMFORTABLE drafting a qb later because the QB always has his hands on the ball, so it's easy to assume upside in a game or two. The same can be said for a rb--there is upside in rbs drafted later, BUT we don't know how many touches they'd have etc, so we are most hesistant to draft a rb later--MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. In the end, drafters draft QBS later and RBS earlier because they are more COMFORTABLE doing so--and that is fine. Know yourself. If you feel comfortable drafting a rb later and know how to get one, then do so. It's much easier passing on an elite QB and drafting an Eli or Cuter because I know qbs always have the ball ;).

The truth remains that when you see your opponent is starting Rodgers, Brees, or Brady you know that most likely you will have to make up the difference in points with your other position players--and this cannot be said for Romo or E.Manning.

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks.I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.
Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks.I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.
Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.
I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.

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It is about value. If you limit yourself to or from a certain position, you surrender value. I wouldn't draft a QB top 3 in most formats. But I would be okay with Rodgers, Brees, or Brady anywhere after that.

Keep in mind that Adrian Peterson's career average VBD is right around 100. Cam Newton bested in that his rookie season. I wouldn't question anyone drafting him late in the first, either.

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One reason I like to wait on a QB is to make sure no one else gets an extreme value pick at QB. Clearly if you go first or early second with a QB, you're not going to go after the round 5 value QB too. At least I wouldn't.Of course, at some point, you need to make the commitment if you perceive the value already out there is too good to pass up. The same concept applies to going RB/RB/RB -- for me, I know this strategy has its fans -- but I don't like that approach because I now have very little to benefit, except injury coverage and trade bait, if I pick a RB in the next several rounds.A different thought on when to draft QBs, but one that certainly weighs on my mind.

:goodposting: As mentioned in another thread.QB and TE you are going to take 1 in the 1st 8 rounds. If you take a QB/TE early and someone presents good value in the 3rd or 4th you need to pass on him.

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I'd also like to add that I believe another contributor to last year's explosion was that all of Brady/Bree/Rodgers had sort of a perfect storm situation where they were all on teams with ####ty running games and bad defenses. So they were forced to throw and had to throw a lot because of their defense. I dont see how that situation has changed significantly this year.

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks.I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

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There is error with this type of thinking #1) There is an assumption that the top QBS will not score as much (fair enough) but you also assume the other qbs "such as Manning, Romo, etc" will keep their level of scoring, or close the gap compared to the top QBS. #2) An assumption that rbs drafted later cannot close the gap with the elite rbs. Eli Manning Threw over 4900 yards in 2011 and a tad over 4000 in 2010--that's a bunch of points.What's to say HE keeps this up too? Or that he does not regress back to less than 4k passing yards?What if The top QBS regress, but the lower QBS regress more?As mentioned before, I will say it again--it comes down to COMFORT. People are more COMFORTABLE drafting a qb later because the QB always has his hands on the ball, so it's easy to assume upside in a game or two. The same can be said for a rb--There is upside in rbs drafted later, BUT we don't know how many touches they'd have etc, so we are most hesistant to draft a rb later--MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. In the end, drafters draft QBS later and RBS earlier because they are more COMFORTABLE doing so--and that is fine. Know yourself. If you feel comfortable drafting a rb later and know how to get one, then do so. It's much easier passing on an elite QB and drafting an Eli or Cuter because I know qbs always have the ball ;).The truth remains that when you see your opponent has Rodgers, Brees, or Brady you know you will have to make up the difference in points with your other position players, and that is how the draft works--draft a team!

Our thinking is in agreement. I also believe that Most or all QB stats will regress back to TE mean or slightly above the mean for 2012. That includes the Eli mannings, etc. With that said, the top 3 or 4 qbs will still be elite with regards to the qb category, but that does change their status in overall rankings and whether or not a first roun pick will be justified. If you draft Rodgers, Brady, or brees in round 1 expecting 2012 stats or better the odds are you will be Rey disappointed. If you are drafting them in the first round expecting 2010 or similar production you will get what you expect? But what you expect might not get you what you want, which is a team that cranks out best overall points scored and a title. That's all I'm saying. Ps - if we are going to discuss all of these qbs regress into the mean that means we should also discuss wrs and te's regressing as well. If you shave 500-1000 yards and 5-10 tds off of a qbs stats that affects his receivers. So the next thought should be "are guys like graham and gronk being drafted too high? Are wrs in general being drafted a little too high based on this thought process?"

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Rushing attempts were up 0.4% from 2010 to 2011, yards up 2.3%

Passing attempts were up 0.8% from 2010 to 2011, yards up 3.7%

Not a drastic increase in either case. The difference is in the elite QBs and systems - they are head and shoulders above the average QBs.

At the same time, the difference between elite and average RBs is shrinking.

The league is not drastically shifting to a passing league - but it appears that way when you see the elite player put up big numbers. Total passing yards per team was up only 9 yards/game in 2011.

The reason why QBs should be going in the first round has to do with the limited number of elite QBs, and the drop-off in production 5-12. In my league - fairly standard scoring (4 pts per passing TD) - the top-5 QBs averaged 23 points per game. 6-12 averaged 16.

By comparison, RBS were 17, and 14 respectively. (non ppr)

If you pass on an elite QB in round 1, you are putting yourself 7 points behind. You need two top-5 RBs to make up that difference.

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If you draft Rodgers, Brady, or brees in round 1 expecting 2012 stats or better the odds are you will be Rey disappointed.

I don't expect 4-5 QBs chasing the record every year, but I don't think it's wise to write of this major spike in production. This isn't a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning outlier season. Passing was up BIG TIME across the board. There were new rules protecting the receiver implemented just last season - I don't think it's a coincidence. I expect defenses to adjust, especially in the way they value skill types. But that's a year+ away.So, just because players haven't repeated historic seasons before, doesn't mean passing won't continue to be up, especially for the elite QBs that can take advantage of the changes.

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If you pass on an elite QB in round 1, you are putting yourself 7 points behind. You need two top-5 RBs to make up that difference.

This is equally wrong. VBD will show you that top RBs, Gronk, Graham, and Calvin can provide just as much VBD as a top QB. Speaking in such absolutes is limiting. It's about value, regardless of how it comes packaged.

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If you draft Rodgers, Brady, or brees in round 1 expecting 2012 stats or better the odds are you will be Rey disappointed.

I don't expect 4-5 QBs chasing the record every year, but I don't think it's wise to write of this major spike in production. This isn't a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning outlier season. Passing was up BIG TIME across the board. There were new rules protecting the receiver implemented just last season - I don't think it's a coincidence. I expect defenses to adjust, especially in the way they value skill types. But that's a year+ away.So, just because players haven't repeated historic seasons before, doesn't mean passing won't continue to be up, especially for the elite QBs that can take advantage of the changes.
Great points and you could be right. And that is TE real question here: was the uptick in qb production in 2012 an anomaly due to the lockout or was it the new nfl given the new rules implemented last year that helped the passing game. I'm pretty sure that a lot of that insane qb production last year came in the first quarter of the season too and then a lot of the QB performances calmed down, albeit still strong. That would speak to the lockout being the cause but could also speak to defenses adjusting the the we rules protecting wrs We will just have to wait and see what the 2012 season brings to know for certain, but I don't think I have seen enough yet to justify a 1st or 2nd round qb pick. With that said, I am like water. So if my draft goes rb heavy in the first few rounds I might just go the opposite and go qb/wr or TE. It all depends what rbs fall to me and what my draft spot is. I agree with the poster here who said that each draft is different. But basically all I'm Trying to say is that I expect a regression to or slightly above the individual mean for all qbs in 2012.

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks.I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.
Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.
I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.
I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career:262934363347- 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6)- 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011- Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his averageJust something to think about.

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If you pass on an elite QB in round 1, you are putting yourself 7 points behind. You need two top-5 RBs to make up that difference.

This is equally wrong. VBD will show you that top RBs, Gronk, Graham, and Calvin can provide just as much VBD as a top QB. Speaking in such absolutes is limiting. It's about value, regardless of how it comes packaged.
VBD is overrated.In round 1, you are looking for the best value, wherever you can find it, relative to the other players at a given position. Top-RBs are currently overvalued. I agree that TEs and WRs can provide good value, though more of their value is tied to a good QB, than vice-versa.
You say VBD is overrated, then go on to endorse it. "Finding best value, wherever you can, relative to other players at a given position" is what VBD is. If you're using blacket point total - which you did - Matt Schaub will likely be more valuable(to you) than Arian Foster.

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At first I didn't mind another thread on the topic, but a lot of the same incorrect points are coming up.

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But basically all I'm Trying to say is that I expect a regression to or slightly above the individual mean for all qbs in 2012.

I expect some regression too. I think that's logical. I like to use this example: Adrian Peterson's average career VBD is around 100. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers scored 200+ last season. Granted, this doesn't take flex options into account, so Petersons is probably closer to 125-150, depending on number of flex options, but still. There is room for the top QBs to come back down to earth, and still be worth as much, or more than the top RBs.

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Here's a snipet from Matthew Berry 2012 draft manifesto I kno guys don't like him but this is interesting the reason you go stud QB early is there consistency and there is not much turnover at the QB position

"OK, fine," you say. "I get it. I need a good quarterback. But whatevs, dude. There's so many good ones, I can get one later." Maybe. But like I said earlier, a good quarterback is the new mediocre. Check this out as we go back to Tristan's consistency list.

Here are last year's top nine scoring quarterbacks, along with their point totals. 1. Aaron Rodgers, 385

2. Drew Brees, 380

3. Tom Brady, 352

4. Cam Newton, 333

4. Matthew Stafford, 333

6. Eli Manning, 273

7. Tony Romo, 265

8. Matt Ryan, 260

9. Philip Rivers, 246

OK, now let's look at that list again but add their "stud" weeks. The weeks they had more than 20 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring.

1. Aaron Rodgers, 385 -- 14 stud games

2. Drew Brees, 380 -- 12 stud games

3. Tom Brady, 352 -- 9 stud games

4. Cam Newton, 333 -- 9 stud games

4. Matthew Stafford, 333 -- 8 stud games

6. Eli Manning, 273 -- 7 stud games

7. Tony Romo, 265 -- 6 stud games

8. Matt Ryan, 260 -- 5 stud games

9. Philip Rivers, 246 -- 3 stud games

Other names worth noting: Vick had seven "stud" games, Ben Roethlisberger had three and Matt Schaub had two.

As good as Eli was last year -- and he was terrific -- he had just half the number of stud games Rodgers did. You look at 385 for Rodgers and 273 for Eli and you're like, "Eh, 102 total points -- that's a lot, but it's not a crazy amount over an entire season. I can live with Eli if I get a stud running back." And if that running back is Foster, Rice, McCoy or Jones-Drew, I agree with you. But anyone else?

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks.I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.
Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.
I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.
I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career:262934363347- 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6)- 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011- Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his averageJust something to think about.
My point was that I'm not projecting 47 TDs again for Brees and I'd still take him in the first assuming certain other guys were taken first. I'm not going to project Brees back down to 33-34 TDs however, because I don't see how his situation has changed for the worse that much (bountygate aside which I think affects the defense more).

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I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks.I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.
Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.
I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.
I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career:262934363347- 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6)- 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011- Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his averageJust something to think about.
My point was that I'm not projecting 47 TDs again for Brees and I'd still take him in the first assuming certain other guys were taken first. I'm not going to project Brees back down to 33-34 TDs however, because I don't see how his situation has changed for the worse that much (bountygate aside which I think affects the defense more).
We'll agree to disagree. I see a huge drop-off, and think he will come in around 36 or so.

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I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career:262934363347- 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6)- 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011- Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his averageJust something to think about.

You would have to find that Brees' spike in production was significantly greater than that of similair players for your point to mean what you intend it to. There was a major spike in production accross the league, very especially for the elite QBs. If the factors that caused said spike are still relevant, it is logical for the increase in procution to remain.

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3) taking a stud QB early means missing out on a stud RB, a position that is way thin this year.

Not necessarily true that you are missing out on a stud RB. If you feel more confident in the QB you select performing at a stud level than you do in the RBs available to you at that spot in the draft. There is no guarantee that any of these players will be studs so you take your chances with the player you feel most comfortable with at a given spot. Thats the only thing that matters IMO. And due to the nature of the position you can make the argument that QB play is slightly more predictable and less prone to injury.

I think the OP makes some valid points. But in general, we have over thought and over discussed this issue.

I have won my main league twice while taking QBs in the first round and I have won the same league being the 2nd to last person to draft a QB. And I have had success and failures doing just about everything in between. You can analyze all of the stats, deviations,trends, etc. but at the end of the day it's about selecting the players you, based on your best educated guess, think will perform at a high level and give you the most points and best chance to win.

If you feel good about the RBs available to you in the first then take them. If you like Calvin better, take him. If you feel more confident in a QB like Rodgers, Brady, Brees, then take them. It's really that simple.

So some people are just not comfortable taking QBs early. Fine, that can work for them. Some people like to go after a stud QB early. That can work too.

At the end of the day, you put together a draft board. You identify certain targets at various positions, analyze where you might be able to select those guys and you roll with it. Sometimes you feel good about the RBs at the top and waiting on a QB. Sometimes you want to grad some stud WRs early. Sometimes you feel better getting a big time QB and drafting several value Rbs who you think will pan out.

Great, those are all strategies that can work. Can we please end the debate about taking a QB early and everyone just draft how they want and see where the chips fall?

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I have also noticed that these threads always say wait on a QB as opposed to threads titled "Take a QB early." It's like these thread makers are fighting an urge to NOT take a QB early (or trying to convince themselves). Do whatever you want because it will take a team and waiver moves to win it all, anyhow.

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I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career:

26

29

34

36

33

47

- 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6)

- 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011

- Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his average

Just something to think about.

You would have to find that Brees' spike in production was significantly greater than that of similair players for your point to mean what you intend it to.

There was a major spike in production accross the league, very especially for the elite QBs. If the factors that caused said spike are still relevant, it is logical for the increase in procution to remain.

Pretty much untrue across the board. Look at this graph (I've posted this in multiple threads all off-season). It outlines historic points of the top 12 QBs over the last eight years. The lavender line represents 2011. The green line represents 2007 (Brady, specifically).

Pretty easy to see that every QB outside of the top 5 was in-line with the slow and steady upward trend of QB performance, rather than the spike the "elite" QBs saw last year.

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