Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let's do this.
This is mostly a gut check thread. I am going to go thru the draft and simply give my opinions on where I think folks are making mistakes and where I think you have a chance to stay ahead of the curve or go in a different direction. The beginning of these drafts all play out similar and while perhaps a player is picked here and there ahead or below what some might anticipate, overall I can tell you a lot of WRs fill up rounds 3-4-5-6, I'm gonna go thru these guys because there is some difference in a few of them. Some of these TEs have become very prolific and we'll discuss those as well.
I'm gonna start in Round 1 and make this sort of a workshop of sorts where I probably will discover some ideas just by writing out my thoughts. That's what this is really, my FF diary and I'm going to open it up and share my thoughts. Please feel free to ask questions, and please be excellent
Early Round 1:
I think it's pointless to discuss anyone other than Foster, Rice, and McCoy. Even if you want to grab QB there, probably best to try and trade down because most owners want one of these 3 picks. I think Rice is the safest and am not going to discuss this in depth but McCoy should have a dip in TD, Foster lost the right side of his OL and also has Ben Tate pushing for playing time. Rice has no one taking his touches.
1.04-This is the 1st real choice in the draft. I think if you play in 6 pt passing leagues that there are 2-3 QBs that offer security and peace of mind around here. If you play in a TE heavy league where you get 2 PPR for example(I compete in these) then it's possible a guy like Jimmy Graham makes some sense. How about Calvin Johnson at WR? All of these are in play but I would not just take the next RB off the board. These guys I am speaking of feel like almost sure things, can't say that about the next group of RB so I would take the sure points in the 1st round. You have 19 more rounds to find players, take the moment players here and fill in the roster with others later.
QB: I'm going to go on record and say that taking any QB other than Brady at #1 is flawed thinking IMO. I love Rodgers, love Brees, just think when the dust settles that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are going to take a blowtorch to the rest of the league and they have the most cupcake schedule. Don't be afraid, they run the score up when they can. Let me also point out that I do not believe 2011 is the "Norm" but rather an anomaly with so many QBs posting 5,000 yards. I think things will take a step back. One year in the 90s we had a bunch of WRs with 10-15+ TD and people started penciling in a lot of WRs for 10-12+ TDs and the reality is very very few WRs post double digit TDs each season, look it up. Brady can do no wrong IMO this year. You pair him with possible one of the TE and maybe Lloyd which we'll get to and you are going to be blowing people away on SUndays in the passing department.
WR: Calvin Johnson...not much else needs to be said. He's the clear #1 and unstoppable short of 3-4 defenders around him.
TE: Graham/Gronkowski
Middle to late 1st:
I'm gonna run thru a bunch of RBs that go in this area of the draft. Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, MJD...they all are gambles for a lot of reasons. I think Chris Johnson will get going when they figure out the passing game and insert Locker. Until that happens the defenses will crowd the line. McFadden is back form injury, seems streaky to me but I understand why folks want him. I think he is too much risk in the 1st round. Forte is solid but will lose touches to Michael Bush. Murray is the most dangerous pick of any of them. He had a 4 game stretch last year, breaks his ankle, had injury problems in college...let someone else draft this guy, don't be a fool. MJD seems like a long holdout right now. I don't like guys who skip camps and report late, he will not be in game shape for at least a month.
WR: I'm going to go thru about 15-20 WRs in a few moments but I am going to touch on a few more that seem to go in the late 1st to mid 2nd. Julio Jones, AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. Fitz has issues because of the QB play but he seems safe for at least 80 receptions even if a pop warner standout was chucking the ball to him. Johnson is starting to have injuries creep back into the minds of potential owners. There are so many WRs to choose from, what does Johnson give you edge wise vs the headache or heartbreak possible when he pulls up gimpy? Houston has done him no favors getting a solid WR2 on that squad. The other 2 are 2nd year standouts that are being drafted on their potential rather than what they have actually done. If you want them you have to grab them early and I'm not sure it is a terrible move but I don't think those choices automatically move you to the front either.
QB: Stafford and Cam Newton: These 2 go in the late 1st, mid to late 2nd, many owners feel they are getting the same production from them as they will form Brees, Rodgers, and Brady...I majorly disagree. To me this is where some owners start taking chances they didn't need to. What does Cam Newton give you over Matt Ryan and Eli Manning in 2012? I gotta see it again and then I can move them into the top5 with the other 3 but for now my gut says they are being drafted way too high. I will say in Stafford's defense, it is hard to think they will be able to run with a lot of success, it's possible they chuck it a lot. I want to see Stafford go 2 seasons unscathed as well.
-Right about now half the reading audience is getting red ears and light smoke is protruding from the ear canals...I hate to tell you this but they can't all be great picks. I understand you might have some of these players i am not so high on, the good news is I am not 100% in my forecasts so you can come back and we'll have a good hearty laugh as the season unfolds.
The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th Round:
Mostly RB and WRs are going to fill up the next 3-4 rounds with a few QBs and TEs thrown in along the way. I'm going to run thru the names for both WR and RB positions.
2nd, 3rd, 4th round RBs:
Risky coming off injuries: Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Ryan Mathews(stock is falling further now)...I don't have a major opinion on Peterson other than I don't like RBs coming off ACL injuries, he does seem to be ahead of schedule. I don't think he will be a top5 back, at best maybe top12-15 but that might be enough for some owners. Charles will be sharing the load even if he was 100% healthy. I do like Peyton Hills in a few rounds and will discuss him in depth at a later time. And Mathews, the news gets worse and worse IMO, seems like it could be October perhaps November before the is back 100%. I would not bank on 20 touches a game from him anytime the 1st 4-6 weeks of the season.
Marshawn Lynch: Might be facing a suspension but some writers feel he will not and instead face legal issues after the season and then face Goodell...I think he might miss 2-3 games.
Darren Sproles: Word is he has some soreness in his knee. I think he might have been overused last season and he is not a spring chicken either despite the tread left on his tires. I'm leery of this guy drafted this high.
Steven Jackson: Fisher will run him into the ground by week 8. He's OK but I don't see him ever getting back to his dominating days, best days are behind him.
Rookies: Trent Richardson has already been by to see Dr Andrews...I will pass(Did draft him in the early summer-regretting that now). I like Doug Martin though and am not afraid to take him early and then grab Blount several rounds later and carry both. The Bucs are going to be good at running the ball this year so get used to it.
Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, and Ahmad Bradshaw: You can get Turner later, I snagged him in the 6th recently, but he does seem like he might be getting a few less touches. Jackson is great but you also have Spiller pushing for time, there has to be a limit and I don't think Fred Jackson will be the #1 RB in FF again which he was in the hunt for a while last season. Bradhsaw always seems to get hurt and he has a 1st round rookie lining up next to him or right behind him. I see a decent split of the touches there in New York. I don't think Bradshaw gives you any edge in the 1st 3 rounds of the draft.
2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round WRs:
These 20+ WRs that all seem to go...I'm gonna run thru them in order of the ADP according to ADP calculator for PPR...some of these you can get beyond the 3rd round so don't have an aneurism on me please. These next 20+ WRs typically get sliced and diced with owners who want strong WRs at all 3 starting spots usually going WR-WR-WR in the 2,3,4 or 3,4,5 rounds. You know you do it so don't deny it
Wes Welker...might not catch 100 balls this year, drafted too early for me.
Greg Jennings...battling some injuries and might not be the most talented WR in Green bay right now.
Roddy White...everyone wants Julio, White will provide a solid WR2 for a lot of owners.
Brandon Marshall..Absolutely love him in this bunch, anytime from the middle of the 2nd on go ahead and grab him. I see top5 numbers for him back with Cutler...100-120 receptions.
Victor Cruz...I don't think we see as many dances this year, in fact I see him as folks just relying on 1 year worth of stats.
Hakeem Nicks...the injuries are unsettling but I love his talent.
Jordy Nelson...2011 might not have been a total fluke.
Dez Bryant...Austin is always hurt, Witten could be out a while...3rd year. i know the off the field crap but he had almost 1,000 yds and 9 TDs last year...the expectations have been too high but this year he might have that 1,200/10 season so many are hoping for. Dallas is going 8-8, likely will need to put up some offense playing the AFC North and NFC South on top of their division.
Percy Harvin...I want to like this guy ideally do. The migraines and his small stature make me shy away. Other I like around him better.
Steve Smith...absolutely showed last year what he can do with Cam, love this pick in the 4th round.
Marques Colston...he battled injuries but if you look back he was top 10 the rest of the way once he was playing. He seems like value in the 5th.
Brandon Lloyd...he is startin to move up and I have seen guys taking him a little earlier with each passing week of the preseason.
Mike Wallace...I don't like the holdout and I think the relationship in Pitt will dwindle. Shame really.
Antonio Brown...maybe a little high after past season but I understand owners who are looking for safety. He does his job and keeps his mouth shut.
Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker: Not sold on manning being back 100%. They both will do well but I don't think they will take the FF world by force.
Jeremy Maclin: Had a lot of injuries last year, feel he will showcase himself better this year.
DeSean Jackson: Can be had in the 6th of some leagues. I like him if you have a solid WR1 and WR2 already. He feels like a WR3 with some big upside certain weeks.
Steve Johnson...Solid
Vincent Jackson...New team, running philosophy perhaps might limit his ceiling. New QB to work with.
Dwayne Bowe...Not in camp, not good. Has the potential to be a top10 in this league but is messing that all up right now.
There are going to be more names of guys I like but I'll save it for the middle rounds section or thread. This is a good start. All 12 teams in your league will probably have a 1-2 or a 1-2-3 punch at WR form the 20-25 I have listed. A lot of the WRs are the same but the difference honestly between what many of these guys will score and say WR35 who is starting for another owner...the spread won't be what you wish it was as compared to QB, TE, and a lesser degree RB. If you build your team on 3-4 ball hawking WRs you are going to have problems ripping off the 3 playoff games you need to take him the trophy. December and weather start to limit a few of these guys so my advice is take a couple where you can but don't get so lost in this group you lose sight of the overall objective. I like Smith, LLoyd, and Colston because they are all veterans, all have the trust of their QBs, all of them professional. Brandon Marshall seems like the best bang for the buck after the 1st 3-5 WRs come off the board.
3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round QB:
Michael Vick: Always risky because of injuries, got hurt int he 1st preseason game. You almost have to draft your QB2 a little quicker than other owners.
Matt Ryan: Could be top3 this year and I mean that. He is a gift in the 4th and later, no crime taking him in the 3rd to lock up the QB position. 4,500 yds, 35 TDs, bank on it.
Tony Romo: Orton will be starting at some point this season. The OLine looks like hell. And Jerry jones is still the General Manager...how many GMs would keep their jobs with JJ's recent track history, I'll hang up and listen.
Peyton Manning: Not buying it just yet
Eli Manning: I do buy into him but not 5,000 yards again.
I'll make a deal with you all, usually team specific questions are for another forum but if you post the scoring rules(please nothing elaborate) and possible draft spot PLUS your thoughts, we can use that and turn this into a working workshop of sorts. Let's try that and see what happens.
Who do you have questions about in the 1st 5-6 rounds before we discuss the middle part of this draft? I highlighted what I felt were some good values inside those early rounds. I hesitated to bold anyone in red, don't want folks getting too jumpy but we know that not all of these guys are going to work out for a variety of reasons.
Cheers
This is mostly a gut check thread. I am going to go thru the draft and simply give my opinions on where I think folks are making mistakes and where I think you have a chance to stay ahead of the curve or go in a different direction. The beginning of these drafts all play out similar and while perhaps a player is picked here and there ahead or below what some might anticipate, overall I can tell you a lot of WRs fill up rounds 3-4-5-6, I'm gonna go thru these guys because there is some difference in a few of them. Some of these TEs have become very prolific and we'll discuss those as well.
I'm gonna start in Round 1 and make this sort of a workshop of sorts where I probably will discover some ideas just by writing out my thoughts. That's what this is really, my FF diary and I'm going to open it up and share my thoughts. Please feel free to ask questions, and please be excellent
Early Round 1:
I think it's pointless to discuss anyone other than Foster, Rice, and McCoy. Even if you want to grab QB there, probably best to try and trade down because most owners want one of these 3 picks. I think Rice is the safest and am not going to discuss this in depth but McCoy should have a dip in TD, Foster lost the right side of his OL and also has Ben Tate pushing for playing time. Rice has no one taking his touches.
1.04-This is the 1st real choice in the draft. I think if you play in 6 pt passing leagues that there are 2-3 QBs that offer security and peace of mind around here. If you play in a TE heavy league where you get 2 PPR for example(I compete in these) then it's possible a guy like Jimmy Graham makes some sense. How about Calvin Johnson at WR? All of these are in play but I would not just take the next RB off the board. These guys I am speaking of feel like almost sure things, can't say that about the next group of RB so I would take the sure points in the 1st round. You have 19 more rounds to find players, take the moment players here and fill in the roster with others later.
QB: I'm going to go on record and say that taking any QB other than Brady at #1 is flawed thinking IMO. I love Rodgers, love Brees, just think when the dust settles that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are going to take a blowtorch to the rest of the league and they have the most cupcake schedule. Don't be afraid, they run the score up when they can. Let me also point out that I do not believe 2011 is the "Norm" but rather an anomaly with so many QBs posting 5,000 yards. I think things will take a step back. One year in the 90s we had a bunch of WRs with 10-15+ TD and people started penciling in a lot of WRs for 10-12+ TDs and the reality is very very few WRs post double digit TDs each season, look it up. Brady can do no wrong IMO this year. You pair him with possible one of the TE and maybe Lloyd which we'll get to and you are going to be blowing people away on SUndays in the passing department.
WR: Calvin Johnson...not much else needs to be said. He's the clear #1 and unstoppable short of 3-4 defenders around him.
TE: Graham/Gronkowski
Middle to late 1st:
I'm gonna run thru a bunch of RBs that go in this area of the draft. Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, MJD...they all are gambles for a lot of reasons. I think Chris Johnson will get going when they figure out the passing game and insert Locker. Until that happens the defenses will crowd the line. McFadden is back form injury, seems streaky to me but I understand why folks want him. I think he is too much risk in the 1st round. Forte is solid but will lose touches to Michael Bush. Murray is the most dangerous pick of any of them. He had a 4 game stretch last year, breaks his ankle, had injury problems in college...let someone else draft this guy, don't be a fool. MJD seems like a long holdout right now. I don't like guys who skip camps and report late, he will not be in game shape for at least a month.
WR: I'm going to go thru about 15-20 WRs in a few moments but I am going to touch on a few more that seem to go in the late 1st to mid 2nd. Julio Jones, AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. Fitz has issues because of the QB play but he seems safe for at least 80 receptions even if a pop warner standout was chucking the ball to him. Johnson is starting to have injuries creep back into the minds of potential owners. There are so many WRs to choose from, what does Johnson give you edge wise vs the headache or heartbreak possible when he pulls up gimpy? Houston has done him no favors getting a solid WR2 on that squad. The other 2 are 2nd year standouts that are being drafted on their potential rather than what they have actually done. If you want them you have to grab them early and I'm not sure it is a terrible move but I don't think those choices automatically move you to the front either.
QB: Stafford and Cam Newton: These 2 go in the late 1st, mid to late 2nd, many owners feel they are getting the same production from them as they will form Brees, Rodgers, and Brady...I majorly disagree. To me this is where some owners start taking chances they didn't need to. What does Cam Newton give you over Matt Ryan and Eli Manning in 2012? I gotta see it again and then I can move them into the top5 with the other 3 but for now my gut says they are being drafted way too high. I will say in Stafford's defense, it is hard to think they will be able to run with a lot of success, it's possible they chuck it a lot. I want to see Stafford go 2 seasons unscathed as well.
-Right about now half the reading audience is getting red ears and light smoke is protruding from the ear canals...I hate to tell you this but they can't all be great picks. I understand you might have some of these players i am not so high on, the good news is I am not 100% in my forecasts so you can come back and we'll have a good hearty laugh as the season unfolds.
The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th Round:
Mostly RB and WRs are going to fill up the next 3-4 rounds with a few QBs and TEs thrown in along the way. I'm going to run thru the names for both WR and RB positions.
2nd, 3rd, 4th round RBs:
Risky coming off injuries: Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Ryan Mathews(stock is falling further now)...I don't have a major opinion on Peterson other than I don't like RBs coming off ACL injuries, he does seem to be ahead of schedule. I don't think he will be a top5 back, at best maybe top12-15 but that might be enough for some owners. Charles will be sharing the load even if he was 100% healthy. I do like Peyton Hills in a few rounds and will discuss him in depth at a later time. And Mathews, the news gets worse and worse IMO, seems like it could be October perhaps November before the is back 100%. I would not bank on 20 touches a game from him anytime the 1st 4-6 weeks of the season.
Marshawn Lynch: Might be facing a suspension but some writers feel he will not and instead face legal issues after the season and then face Goodell...I think he might miss 2-3 games.
Darren Sproles: Word is he has some soreness in his knee. I think he might have been overused last season and he is not a spring chicken either despite the tread left on his tires. I'm leery of this guy drafted this high.
Steven Jackson: Fisher will run him into the ground by week 8. He's OK but I don't see him ever getting back to his dominating days, best days are behind him.
Rookies: Trent Richardson has already been by to see Dr Andrews...I will pass(Did draft him in the early summer-regretting that now). I like Doug Martin though and am not afraid to take him early and then grab Blount several rounds later and carry both. The Bucs are going to be good at running the ball this year so get used to it.
Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, and Ahmad Bradshaw: You can get Turner later, I snagged him in the 6th recently, but he does seem like he might be getting a few less touches. Jackson is great but you also have Spiller pushing for time, there has to be a limit and I don't think Fred Jackson will be the #1 RB in FF again which he was in the hunt for a while last season. Bradhsaw always seems to get hurt and he has a 1st round rookie lining up next to him or right behind him. I see a decent split of the touches there in New York. I don't think Bradshaw gives you any edge in the 1st 3 rounds of the draft.
2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round WRs:
These 20+ WRs that all seem to go...I'm gonna run thru them in order of the ADP according to ADP calculator for PPR...some of these you can get beyond the 3rd round so don't have an aneurism on me please. These next 20+ WRs typically get sliced and diced with owners who want strong WRs at all 3 starting spots usually going WR-WR-WR in the 2,3,4 or 3,4,5 rounds. You know you do it so don't deny it
Wes Welker...might not catch 100 balls this year, drafted too early for me.
Greg Jennings...battling some injuries and might not be the most talented WR in Green bay right now.
Roddy White...everyone wants Julio, White will provide a solid WR2 for a lot of owners.
Brandon Marshall..Absolutely love him in this bunch, anytime from the middle of the 2nd on go ahead and grab him. I see top5 numbers for him back with Cutler...100-120 receptions.
Victor Cruz...I don't think we see as many dances this year, in fact I see him as folks just relying on 1 year worth of stats.
Hakeem Nicks...the injuries are unsettling but I love his talent.
Jordy Nelson...2011 might not have been a total fluke.
Dez Bryant...Austin is always hurt, Witten could be out a while...3rd year. i know the off the field crap but he had almost 1,000 yds and 9 TDs last year...the expectations have been too high but this year he might have that 1,200/10 season so many are hoping for. Dallas is going 8-8, likely will need to put up some offense playing the AFC North and NFC South on top of their division.
Percy Harvin...I want to like this guy ideally do. The migraines and his small stature make me shy away. Other I like around him better.
Steve Smith...absolutely showed last year what he can do with Cam, love this pick in the 4th round.
Marques Colston...he battled injuries but if you look back he was top 10 the rest of the way once he was playing. He seems like value in the 5th.
Brandon Lloyd...he is startin to move up and I have seen guys taking him a little earlier with each passing week of the preseason.
Mike Wallace...I don't like the holdout and I think the relationship in Pitt will dwindle. Shame really.
Antonio Brown...maybe a little high after past season but I understand owners who are looking for safety. He does his job and keeps his mouth shut.
Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker: Not sold on manning being back 100%. They both will do well but I don't think they will take the FF world by force.
Jeremy Maclin: Had a lot of injuries last year, feel he will showcase himself better this year.
DeSean Jackson: Can be had in the 6th of some leagues. I like him if you have a solid WR1 and WR2 already. He feels like a WR3 with some big upside certain weeks.
Steve Johnson...Solid
Vincent Jackson...New team, running philosophy perhaps might limit his ceiling. New QB to work with.
Dwayne Bowe...Not in camp, not good. Has the potential to be a top10 in this league but is messing that all up right now.
There are going to be more names of guys I like but I'll save it for the middle rounds section or thread. This is a good start. All 12 teams in your league will probably have a 1-2 or a 1-2-3 punch at WR form the 20-25 I have listed. A lot of the WRs are the same but the difference honestly between what many of these guys will score and say WR35 who is starting for another owner...the spread won't be what you wish it was as compared to QB, TE, and a lesser degree RB. If you build your team on 3-4 ball hawking WRs you are going to have problems ripping off the 3 playoff games you need to take him the trophy. December and weather start to limit a few of these guys so my advice is take a couple where you can but don't get so lost in this group you lose sight of the overall objective. I like Smith, LLoyd, and Colston because they are all veterans, all have the trust of their QBs, all of them professional. Brandon Marshall seems like the best bang for the buck after the 1st 3-5 WRs come off the board.
3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round QB:
Michael Vick: Always risky because of injuries, got hurt int he 1st preseason game. You almost have to draft your QB2 a little quicker than other owners.
Matt Ryan: Could be top3 this year and I mean that. He is a gift in the 4th and later, no crime taking him in the 3rd to lock up the QB position. 4,500 yds, 35 TDs, bank on it.
Tony Romo: Orton will be starting at some point this season. The OLine looks like hell. And Jerry jones is still the General Manager...how many GMs would keep their jobs with JJ's recent track history, I'll hang up and listen.
Peyton Manning: Not buying it just yet
Eli Manning: I do buy into him but not 5,000 yards again.
I'll make a deal with you all, usually team specific questions are for another forum but if you post the scoring rules(please nothing elaborate) and possible draft spot PLUS your thoughts, we can use that and turn this into a working workshop of sorts. Let's try that and see what happens.
Who do you have questions about in the 1st 5-6 rounds before we discuss the middle part of this draft? I highlighted what I felt were some good values inside those early rounds. I hesitated to bold anyone in red, don't want folks getting too jumpy but we know that not all of these guys are going to work out for a variety of reasons.
Cheers
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