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Is anybody NOT sold on Matt Ryan?

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Last year he finished QB8. Now his ADP is QB7. I don't see what all the fuss is about. Seems fairly valued to me.

His ADP in drafts since August 15th is actually still QB8 on MFL, after Eli. Romo, Peyton, and Rivers all within 10 picks of his ADP, which I dont think is unreasonable either. I feel like the people saying he's going in the 4th round in their leagues are more the exception than the norm right now.
4th rd and rising. Link

I saw it with my own eyes this weekend ...twice

35th and 42nd overall in two real drafts. I'm interested in seeing where he goes in my draft next week.

At that point he isnt even a value pick then, youre basically going all in on him blowing Eli, Romo, Rivers etc out of the water if not being a Top 5 QB.
Re: next weekend's round of drafts. I wonder if in the 3rd preseason game, since both teams will have some sort of game planning in place, Ryan will look a little more average and his ADP will drop back into value land.

Wishful thinking, but it's possible his value could sink just as quickly as it's ascended.

Considering Ryan is the sure starter and he's shown enough in the first two games...will he even play a full quarter?

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I don't buy into Ryan's talent. I don't think he has shown he has elite talent and has flopped in big games in the playoffs. I thought he took a step backwards last year and wasn't impressed.He has the receiving weapons, but no way do I see him throwing up 4700+ and 40 tds or something like that. He isn't good enough.

I can get not buying his talent. I don't necessarily agree, but it doesn't seem unreasonable. I don't, however, think you can write him off on ever being elite from what he's shown in his first 4 years. Eli didn't complete 60% of his passes until year 5. Drew Brees was a historically slow starter in his career. I'm sure if you asked people in 2004 if Brees would be leading the league in nearly everything, they'd say no way or he wasn't good enough. Not saying he ever will become an elite QB, but I do think it's too early in his career to definitively say he can/can't ever be elite.I also don't get the playoff stuff. My championship and 99% of others' are in week 15/16. What happens after the league is over is irrelevant to me. From a purely fantasy standpoint, the playoffs carry less weight than the pre-season IMO.
Brees was a monster in 2004. Eli Manning's rapid improvement from year 6 of his career going forward is quite rare among QBs. Ryan made a big jump from markedly below average in efficiency to average last season. Going much further up from there would be pretty even more unusual than Eli's jump.
Drew Brees Monster 2004 Season:
Player	Year	Age	Draft	Tm	Lg	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Y/A	SkYds	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/GDrew Brees	2004	25	2-32	SDG	NFL	15	15	262	400	65.5%	3159	27	7	104.8	18	7.90	131	8.46	7.78	210.6
Outside of the QBR, there isn't much here that sets him apart from what Ryan did in year three (2010). Notice Drew's attempts were only 400.

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I'm not buying into Matt Ryan as an "elite" talent, at the level of Brady/Brees/Rodgers, but he could put up near-elite fantasy numbers this season for a couple reasons.

1) His receiving corps is amazing. Julio Jones is the next Calvin Johnson and look what he did for Stafford. After that he has Roddy White and one of the best TE's in history.

2) He faces an extremely easy schedule of pass defenses.

3) Michael Turner isn't the running back he used to be, and Jacquizz Rodgers is overrated, so the team will rely heavily on the pass.

I think he's a great candidate to have an amazing season and then have a bit of a dropoff/disappointment in 2013 when everyone starts drafting him in the top 3 rounds or something silly.

This season he's probably a good buy, even with the hype on him boosting him up a round or two.

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I will stop short of saying I am NOT sold, but I have some concerns if you're actually comparing him to the top tier. If you want to put him near the top of the next group, I can understand that. I already realize I won't own him because I'm not going out of my way to start picking from tier2 QBs and he doesn't stand out much.

His value is largely tied to his WR's being awesome rather than himself or a system. If one of those WR's gets injured, he becomes league average IMO. You can't just plug another guy into that system with Ryan and expect to keep chugging. Take away a WR from the top tier QBs and it is barely noticable. Heck, Colston has been in and out for NO for years. They rely more on their own arm and system.

We don't have very many examples of QB's throwing for huge numbers without spreading it around to a bunch of different targets. If you look at the 4500-5K seasons the last few years, I suspect you will find at least 1 RB racking up receptions, TEs putting up numbers, and 4-5 receivers getting in on the act to all add up to those passing yards. It doesn't mean it CANT be done on the back of 1500 from Julio, 1400 from Roddy, 800 from Gonzo or something crazy like that, but it would be basically unprecedented. That means you have to think Quizz and others are actual weapons that are going to help in 2012. I'm not sure... maybe.

We also don't have any real indication that Atlanta is ready to completely abandon the run and turn the entire offense over to Ryan the same way those other teams have done (even the Lions). Remember that with the season seemingly on the line in the most important play of 2011 (4th and 1, OT against Saints), they put the game in the hands of Michael Turner running the ball. It's only one play, but I think it shows a small difference in their identity. Can you see in a million years NE/NO/GB taking it out of the QBs hands and running there?

It's hard to say how much, but at least SOME of the elite QB's going nuts has to do with needing to score big to keep up with their defenses. I don't think anybody will confuse Atlanta's defense for 2011 GB,NE, or even Detroit.

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Ryan's yet to break 30 TDs, has only barely tossed for more than 4,000 yards and 350 completions--going into his 5th season. Even with good receivers, he still has a lot of work to do. Then, when you consider that ATL has a more useful backfield, it's doubtful they'll throw nearly as much as Detroit did last year. That's not to say that the potential for a breakout season isn't there, but whether Ryan's able to convert is another story altogether.

The way I see it, Julio being awesome does not make this kid an automatic top five QB. I see his ceiling as Eli's floor this season: 4500 and 25.You can get that from Cutler later the way he is being hyped up.I have no reason to think that Koetter and Julio are enough to make his sixth season in the league a massive breakout year.

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Ryan's yet to break 30 TDs, has only barely tossed for more than 4,000 yards and 350 completions--going into his 5th season. Even with good receivers, he still has a lot of work to do. Then, when you consider that ATL has a more useful backfield, it's doubtful they'll throw nearly as much as Detroit did last year. That's not to say that the potential for a breakout season isn't there, but whether Ryan's able to convert is another story altogether.

The way I see it, Julio being awesome does not make this kid an automatic top five QB. I see his ceiling as Eli's floor this season: 4500 and 25.You can get that from Cutler later the way he is being hyped up.I have no reason to think that Koetter and Julio are enough to make his sixth season in the league a massive breakout year.
:goodposting:

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Not buying that he takes that huge a leap. It seems expectations are largely tied to his 2 elite receivers. "If they both project as top 10 guys then Ryan will also finish with the elite." Jones and White could both finish with great numbers without that much of an increase in Ryan's numbers.

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Question for the Ryan breakthrough doubters: have you watched him in the preseason at all? Have you seen how quickly he is getting back, setting up, making his reads and delivering the football? His balls are crisp and on a rope (insert ball cancer comment here).

I was skeptical when Mike Smith talked about his added muscle and "much-improved" arm strength, but from what I've seen through the first two games that is exactly the case.

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Ryan's yet to break 30 TDs, has only barely tossed for more than 4,000 yards and 350 completions--going into his 5th season. Even with good receivers, he still has a lot of work to do. Then, when you consider that ATL has a more useful backfield, it's doubtful they'll throw nearly as much as Detroit did last year. That's not to say that the potential for a breakout season isn't there, but whether Ryan's able to convert is another story altogether.

The way I see it, Julio being awesome does not make this kid an automatic top five QB. I see his ceiling as Eli's floor this season: 4500 and 25.

You can get that from Cutler later the way he is being hyped up.

I have no reason to think that Koetter and Julio are enough to make his sixth season in the league a massive breakout year.

Seeing as how he's thrown for 28+ TDs the last 2 seasons, Im having trouble figuring out how you are determining his ceiling. Considering he had 29 TDs last year, and 84/2 on the ground as well, fantasy points wise he has already had a season noticeably better than your "ceiling". Not to mention a season where Julio played only 75% of his rookie season.

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I'm not buying into Matt Ryan as an "elite" talent, at the level of Brady/Brees/Rodgers, but he could put up near-elite fantasy numbers this season for a couple reasons.1) His receiving corps is amazing. Julio Jones is the next Calvin Johnson and look what he did for Stafford. After that he has Roddy White and one of the best TE's in history.2) He faces an extremely easy schedule of pass defenses.3) Michael Turner isn't the running back he used to be, and Jacquizz Rodgers is overrated, so the team will rely heavily on the pass.I think he's a great candidate to have an amazing season and then have a bit of a dropoff/disappointment in 2013 when everyone starts drafting him in the top 3 rounds or something silly.This season he's probably a good buy, even with the hype on him boosting him up a round or two.

Absurd comparison. Calvin doesn't "make" Stafford. Have we forgotten already that Stafford was a number 1 overall pick? The guy is a fantastic QB on his own.Julio doesn't "make" Ryan any more than Fitzgerald "makes" Kolb, which is to say, even the best WR in the game doesn't "make" a QB fantasy relevant. But when you put two phenomenal athletes together (like Stafford and Calvin) look out! That's not to say I'm down on Ryan ... he was taken 3rd overall and is developing really well. The old adage was that it took 5 years for QBs to develop. Maybe Ryan is there? And he has two fantastic WRs to work with this year. I'm definitely buying.

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Question for the Ryan breakthrough doubters: have you watched him in the preseason at all? Have you seen how quickly he is getting back, setting up, making his reads and delivering the football? His balls are crisp and on a rope (insert ball cancer comment here). I was skeptical when Mike Smith talked about his added muscle and "much-improved" arm strength, but from what I've seen through the first two games that is exactly the case.

I watched him the whole game against the Bengals, but not their 1st game. I didn't notice a big difference. Honestly, I thought he seemed more skittish than I expected on a couple of pass rushes. He did have a couple throws that make think he's more Eli than he is Flacco or Bradford (just trying to think of similar pocket passers), but that's about as far as I want to go with it.

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I don't see any reason Matt Ryan suddenly throws for 5,000 and 40 this season. But I do think he can produce slightly higher numbers this coming season than last season. 4200 and 30/13 sounds about right. The slight bump due to Julio Jones progressing.

That is good enough to put him at QB6 on my rankings. Julio Jones comes in at WR2 (1293 and 10) and Roddy White at WR6 (1243 and 8) based on those projections. I see Eli Manning falling off his pace from last year (QB7) and Cruz (WR4) and Nicks (WR9) not quite keeping up with Jones and White. I am a believer in Atlanta's passing game this year.

Overall I think there will be a decline in passing numbers. Passing touchdown projections for top 12 QBs: Rodgers (41), Brady (38), Brees (38), Newton (23), Stafford (36), Ryan (30), E. Manning (29), Romo (28), Rivers (26), Vick (22), P. Manning (27), Griffin III (19).

It really depends on where you draft him. 5th round or later should be great value for Ryan.

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I don't see any reason Matt Ryan suddenly throws for 5,000 and 40 this season. But I do think he can produce slightly higher numbers this coming season than last season. 4200 and 30/13 sounds about right. The slight bump due to Julio Jones progressing.

Wow, when you say slight bump you really mean slight because compared to 2011 4200/30/13 would represent:

only 23 more yards passing

one more interception

one fewer total touchdowns

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I don't see any reason Matt Ryan suddenly throws for 5,000 and 40 this season. But I do think he can produce slightly higher numbers this coming season than last season. 4200 and 30/13 sounds about right. The slight bump due to Julio Jones progressing.

Wow, when you say slight bump you really mean slight because compared to 2011 4200/30/13 would represent:

only 23 more yards passing

one more interception

one fewer total touchdowns

Yeah I do mean slight. But I think the elite passing offenses regress some, making Atlanta's passing offense more valuable compared to last year. I don't project any QBs surpassing 5000 yards this season

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I'm high on the Falcons as long as the threesome of Ryan/Julio/Roddy are in tact. ~4500/35, with 4000/30 floor and 4800/40 upside if all three play 16 together. Solid, consistent PPG at QB5ish or better all year, barring injury to Ryan or Julio/Roddy.

QB2 Leagues - Rd 2-3 value.

QB1 Leagues - Rd 4-5 value.

Ryan has flashed some magic so far in his short time with this WR duo. Plus he still has potential upside in his progression as an NFL QB.

I think he'll be reached for in a lot of drafts. He was in my auction. His passes look crisp and on target in preseason. They look sharp as an offense. Caveat, Mike Turner still around to steal touches, yards, TDs to limit some of Ryan's upside. He looks plodding but was effective again last year. Quizz being good would be much more promising for Ryan and a sneaky bonus to his stats if true.

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Guy just seems like he doesn't deal well with pressure. Unless you're playing the Raiders there just isn't a lot of that going on in the preseason. Did not really check his stats before saying 4500 25. He could easily hit 30 again.

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Guy just seems like he doesn't deal well with pressure. Unless you're playing the Raiders there just isn't a lot of that going on in the preseason. Did not really check his stats before saying 4500 25. He could easily hit 30 again.

Clifford, I agree with your perception that he doesn't handle pressure well and I'd add that he doesn't throw a great deep ball....at least he didn't when he was my QB two years ago (didn't watch him as much last year). He seems to me to be a classic over-achiever (I'll bet he trains hard, is first in and last out, watches tons of tape, etc. etc.). All of that makes me (and I think others) think of him as a guy with a high floor but limited upside. I targetted him in my 2QB league that drafted 10 days ago because I felt he was flying under the radar (I got him in the third at QB11 - I thought at the time that was a steal). But if I had to pay top 5 QB price to draft him I'd probably be thinking hard because that doesn't seem to me to offer much upside. So I guess what I'm saying is that he WAS undervalued a week or so ago but now I think most people have caught up with that and are valuing him properly around QB6.

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QB11 is great value. I basically see the following tiers:

1: Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford

2. Newton

3. Eli, Ryan, Rivers

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04 is also the year that the Chargers drafted Rivers and most everyone was discounting Brees, who was coming off a year where he ceded the starting job to Doug Flutie. Point being, that was his 4th year.Eli came together statistically in his 5th season and on. Rich Gannon even further. Or Vick. Or Brad Johnson. Saying you've got guys figured out after 4 seasons is a bigger jump than the one people are saying Ryan is incapable of making. Just my opinion.Also, speaking of efficiency, Eli was top 5 in INTs 3 years straight after his rookie year, and I think had around a 70 QB rating in his 4th year. And I was a big Eli fan going back to his Ole Miss days, but he was pretty bad early.

I don't understand your examples of Vick, Gannon, or Brad Johnson. Vick's YPA his first 6 years starting are
6.97.05.9 (in 5 games)7.26.26.4
his numbers hovered around 6.7 his entire career and his numbers from year to year are particularly volatile because of the low amount of attempts and low amount of games he plays due to injury each season Gannon's YPAin the years he started more than 9 games
'90  6.591   6.192   6.898   6.399   7.22000 7.401   7.002   7.2
he improved a lot later in his career, but his major jump was similar to Ryan's last year, plus my assumption is that his relative rank to other QBs is going to be fairly consistent as passing numbers have risen and he went 6 years without startingBrad Johnsonin the years he started more than 9 games
95   7.5697   6.7299   7.722000 6.8601   6.802   6.7603   6.69
if anything he got worse after 4 years.QB rating is practically useless and INT numbers are probably just a useless, far too many variables and far too unreliable from year to year.

Drew Brees Monster 2004 Season:

Player	Year	Age	Draft	Tm	Lg	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Y/A	SkYds	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/GDrew Brees	2004	25	2-32	SDG	NFL	15	15	262	400	65.5%	3159	27	7	104.8	18	7.90	131	8.46	7.78	210.6
Outside of the QBR, there isn't much here that sets him apart from what Ryan did in year three (2010). Notice Drew's attempts were only 400.
Drew Brees #7 in the NFL in YPA at 7.9 in 2004Matt Ryan #15 in the NFL in YPA at 7.4 in 2011Monster was probably too strong, as I just looked at his YPA and didn't realize how awesome QBs played in 04. (7.9 would have been #2 in the NFL in '03 and tied for #4 in '05.) Edited by Voice Of Reason

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Ryan could throw for 40 TD and 5000 yards this season. He's this years Stafford.

My exact thoughts, and I had Stafford last year. Looking for this years and I found it, RYAN.
Can u get ryan 8th and lower like Stafford last yr? Otherwise not the same

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I don't understand your examples of Vick, Gannon, or Brad Johnson.

Well, see they all got markedly better later in their careers than their early years would indicate. Seems pretty simple.

Vick's YPA his first 6 years starting are

6.97.05.9 (in 5 games)7.26.26.4
his numbers hovered around 6.7 his entire career and his numbers from year to year are particularly volatile because of the low amount of attempts and low amount of games he plays due to injury each season
And his last years of 8.1 and 7.8 are left out because...?

Also, Y/A tells only a small part of the story. Because not only were his yards up over the last couple years, his comp % and TDs were at all time highs in a 12 game season, and dwarfed some of his previous years of a full season. What about his first 4 years were indicative of the numbers he's putting up now? The Y/A has a lot less to do with his success than him becoming a much more accurate QB in Philly than the one in Atlanta who displayed NO touch on many, many of his passes.

Gannon's YPA

in the years he started more than 9 games

'90  6.591   6.192   6.898   6.399   7.22000 7.401   7.002   7.2
he improved a lot later in his career, but his major jump was similar to Ryan's last year, plus my assumption is that his relative rank to other QBs is going to be fairly consistent as passing numbers have risen and he went 6 years without starting
Gannon started 19 games in KC. He threw 619 times combined in those years for 3940 yards (6.37 Y/A), 23 TDs, and 11 INTs. He went to Oaland and went to 4 straight Pro Bowls, was a 2 time All Pro, and won an MVP. That year, he threw 618 times for 4689 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 INTs. His Y/A was 7.33 over the first 4 years, peaking at 7.7. If THAT isn't a major jump, I don't know what you would consider a major jump....

Brad Johnson

in the years he started more than 9 games

95   7.5697   6.7299   7.722000 6.8601   6.802   6.7603   6.69
if anything he got worse after 4 years.
That's cute. Johnson was a journeyman caliber QB in Minny, which is why he bounced around a bit later. The Y/A is only indicative of their down-field offense at the time. He also threw for 34 TDs to 29 INTs in Minny. Not quite efficient. He would have posted even better numbers in Tampa than he already did if not for a dead arm. That was the last thing a guy of his skill set needed, and his career was over from there.

QB rating is practically useless and INT numbers are probably just a useless, far too many variables and far too unreliable from year to year.

I don't like QB rating very much, either. But you're kidding yourself with the INT-bashing. The only real variable to Eli's INT numbers that mattered was his penchant to throw off his back foot and into double-coverage. Lapses that he still has now, but not nearly in the same numbers. I also think it's hilarious that all you talk about is Y/A when you discredit INTs due to too many variables. Were there not a ton of variables that went into Vick or Gannon's jump in Y/A, going to more talented offenses led by better offensive coaches and playing in different systems that led to drastically improved results? Very short-sighted and convenient to your argument......

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Ryan had a 7.65 YPA in the 2nd half. Weeks 9-16 last year (rested most of week 17): 2388 yards, 18 td's, 4 int, 305 pass attempts, 7.8 YPA. The 2nd half plus a (hopefully) healthier Julio Jones this year should indicate a jump in YPA is on the way. I don't see him touching 5000, but a 7.75 YPA on 590 attempts seems feasible, which would put him close to 4600. Some people may point to his terrible playoff game, but the Giants held Aaron Rodgers to a 5.74 YPA in the playoffs, and held Brady to 6.73. YPA can be a fluke anyways. Eli Manning's was inflated thanks to Victor Cruz having numerous 10-20 yard passes go 65+ yards. I'd say looking at his surrounding cast and his 2nd half rise, Ryan seems like a good bet for around 4500 yards and 35tds

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I don't understand your examples of Vick, Gannon, or Brad Johnson.

Well, see they all got markedly better later in their careers than their early years would indicate. Seems pretty simple.

Vick's YPA his first 6 years starting are

6.97.05.9 (in 5 games)7.26.26.4
his numbers hovered around 6.7 his entire career and his numbers from year to year are particularly volatile because of the low amount of attempts and low amount of games he plays due to injury each season
And his last years of 8.1 and 7.8 are left out because...?

Also, Y/A tells only a small part of the story. Because not only were his yards up over the last couple years, his comp % and TDs were at all time highs in a 12 game season, and dwarfed some of his previous years of a full season. What about his first 4 years were indicative of the numbers he's putting up now? The Y/A has a lot less to do with his success than him becoming a much more accurate QB in Philly than the one in Atlanta who displayed NO touch on many, many of his passes.

Gannon's YPA

in the years he started more than 9 games

'90  6.591   6.192   6.898   6.399   7.22000 7.401   7.002   7.2
he improved a lot later in his career, but his major jump was similar to Ryan's last year, plus my assumption is that his relative rank to other QBs is going to be fairly consistent as passing numbers have risen and he went 6 years without starting
Gannon started 19 games in KC. He threw 619 times combined in those years for 3940 yards (6.37 Y/A), 23 TDs, and 11 INTs. He went to Oaland and went to 4 straight Pro Bowls, was a 2 time All Pro, and won an MVP. That year, he threw 618 times for 4689 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 INTs. His Y/A was 7.33 over the first 4 years, peaking at 7.7. If THAT isn't a major jump, I don't know what you would consider a major jump....

Brad Johnson

in the years he started more than 9 games

95   7.5697   6.7299   7.722000 6.8601   6.802   6.7603   6.69
if anything he got worse after 4 years.
That's cute. Johnson was a journeyman caliber QB in Minny, which is why he bounced around a bit later. The Y/A is only indicative of their down-field offense at the time. He also threw for 34 TDs to 29 INTs in Minny. Not quite efficient. He would have posted even better numbers in Tampa than he already did if not for a dead arm. That was the last thing a guy of his skill set needed, and his career was over from there.

QB rating is practically useless and INT numbers are probably just a useless, far too many variables and far too unreliable from year to year.

I don't like QB rating very much, either. But you're kidding yourself with the INT-bashing. The only real variable to Eli's INT numbers that mattered was his penchant to throw off his back foot and into double-coverage. Lapses that he still has now, but not nearly in the same numbers. I also think it's hilarious that all you talk about is Y/A when you discredit INTs due to too many variables. Were there not a ton of variables that went into Vick or Gannon's jump in Y/A, going to more talented offenses led by better offensive coaches and playing in different systems that led to drastically improved results? Very short-sighted and convenient to your argument......
You seem to confuse bulk stats with efficiency.

I also think it's hilarious that all you talk about is Y/A when you discredit INTs due to too many variables.

why

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Ryan had a 7.65 YPA in the 2nd half. Weeks 9-16 last year (rested most of week 17): 2388 yards, 18 td's, 4 int, 305 pass attempts, 7.8 YPA. The 2nd half plus a (hopefully) healthier Julio Jones this year should indicate a jump in YPA is on the way. I don't see him touching 5000, but a 7.75 YPA on 590 attempts seems feasible, which would put him close to 4600. Some people may point to his terrible playoff game, but the Giants held Aaron Rodgers to a 5.74 YPA in the playoffs, and held Brady to 6.73. YPA can be a fluke anyways. Eli Manning's was inflated thanks to Victor Cruz having numerous 10-20 yard passes go 65+ yards. I'd say looking at his surrounding cast and his 2nd half rise, Ryan seems like a good bet for around 4500 yards and 35tds

Why cherry pick these numbers? What makes his 2nd half numbers more reliable for predicting this up coming season than his first half numbers, or his last 3/4 season numbers, his last 8 home/road games? Edited by Voice Of Reason

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04 is also the year that the Chargers drafted Rivers and most everyone was discounting Brees, who was coming off a year where he ceded the starting job to Doug Flutie. Point being, that was his 4th year.Eli came together statistically in his 5th season and on. Rich Gannon even further. Or Vick. Or Brad Johnson. Saying you've got guys figured out after 4 seasons is a bigger jump than the one people are saying Ryan is incapable of making. Just my opinion.

Also, speaking of efficiency, Eli was top 5 in INTs 3 years straight after his rookie year, and I think had around a 70 QB rating in his 4th year. And I was a big Eli fan going back to his Ole Miss days, but he was pretty bad early.

I don't understand your examples of Vick, Gannon, or Brad Johnson.

Vick's YPA his first 6 years starting are

6.97.05.9 (in 5 games)7.26.26.4
his numbers hovered around 6.7 his entire career and his numbers from year to year are particularly volatile because of the low amount of attempts and low amount of games he plays due to injury each season

Gannon's YPA

in the years he started more than 9 games

'90  6.591   6.192   6.898   6.399   7.22000 7.401   7.002   7.2
he improved a lot later in his career, but his major jump was similar to Ryan's last year, plus my assumption is that his relative rank to other QBs is going to be fairly consistent as passing numbers have risen and he went 6 years without starting

Brad Johnson

in the years he started more than 9 games

95   7.5697   6.7299   7.722000 6.8601   6.802   6.7603   6.69
if anything he got worse after 4 years.

QB rating is practically useless and INT numbers are probably just a useless, far too many variables and far too unreliable from year to year.

Drew Brees Monster 2004 Season:

Player	Year	Age	Draft	Tm	Lg	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Y/A	SkYds	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/GDrew Brees	2004	25	2-32	SDG	NFL	15	15	262	400	65.5%	3159	27	7	104.8	18	7.90	131	8.46	7.78	210.6
Outside of the QBR, there isn't much here that sets him apart from what Ryan did in year three (2010). Notice Drew's attempts were only 400.
Drew Brees #7 in the NFL in YPA at 7.9 in 2004

Matt Ryan #15 in the NFL in YPA at 7.4 in 2011

Monster was probably too strong, as I just looked at his YPA and didn't realize how awesome QBs played in 04. (7.9 would have been #2 in the NFL in '03 and tied for #4 in '05.)

As I mentioned above:

Rk      Player	   Year	       Age     Draft     Tm     Lg	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Y/A	SkYds	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/G1	Philip Rivers	2008	27	1-4	SDG	NFL	16	16	312	478	65.3%	4009	34	11	105.5	25	8.39	151	8.77	8.04	250.62	Matt Schaub	2008	27	3-90	HOU	NFL	11	11	251	380	66.1%	3043	15	10	92.7	23	8.01	149	7.61	6.81	276.63	Drew Brees	2008	29	2-32	NOR	NFL	16	16	413	635	65.0%	5069	34	17	96.2	13	7.98	92	7.85	7.55	316.84	Jake Delhomme	2008	33		CAR	NFL	16	16	246	414	59.4%	3288	15	12	84.7	20	7.94	130	7.36	6.72	205.55	Matt Ryan	2008	23	1-3	ATL	NFL	16	16	265	434	61.1%	3440	16	11	87.7	17	7.93	104	7.52	7.01	215.0
His rookie season. Now he has experience, a better supporting cast, a new offensive scheme that likes to mix up the bubble screen with attempts down field, a stronger arm (in his coaches opinion and based on my observation)...

I could see his YPA over 8 this season, easily.

Edited by Neofight

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Doesn't he have the same cast as last year? Wasn't he more experienced, than his rookie year, in the past 2 season where he was mediocre to slightly below average in terms of efficiency? Are more bubble screens a good thing for offenses?

Edited by Voice Of Reason

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Doesn't he have the same cast as last year? Wasn't he more experienced, than his rookie year, in the past 2 season where he was mediocre to slightly below average in terms of efficiency? Are more bubble screens a good thing for offenses?

Why don't we just set some parameters to measure his improvement and spice things up with a wager? I think you know where your questions fail, and at this point you're not playing an effective Devil's Advocate. Anything after round 4 for Ryan is a value, and if you can get him after round 7 it's an outright steal.

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I don't understand your examples of Vick, Gannon, or Brad Johnson.

Well, see they all got markedly better later in their careers than their early years would indicate. Seems pretty simple.

Vick's YPA his first 6 years starting are

6.97.05.9 (in 5 games)7.26.26.4
his numbers hovered around 6.7 his entire career and his numbers from year to year are particularly volatile because of the low amount of attempts and low amount of games he plays due to injury each season
And his last years of 8.1 and 7.8 are left out because...?

Also, Y/A tells only a small part of the story. Because not only were his yards up over the last couple years, his comp % and TDs were at all time highs in a 12 game season, and dwarfed some of his previous years of a full season. What about his first 4 years were indicative of the numbers he's putting up now? The Y/A has a lot less to do with his success than him becoming a much more accurate QB in Philly than the one in Atlanta who displayed NO touch on many, many of his passes.

Gannon's YPA

in the years he started more than 9 games

'90  6.591   6.192   6.898   6.399   7.22000 7.401   7.002   7.2
he improved a lot later in his career, but his major jump was similar to Ryan's last year, plus my assumption is that his relative rank to other QBs is going to be fairly consistent as passing numbers have risen and he went 6 years without starting
Gannon started 19 games in KC. He threw 619 times combined in those years for 3940 yards (6.37 Y/A), 23 TDs, and 11 INTs. He went to Oaland and went to 4 straight Pro Bowls, was a 2 time All Pro, and won an MVP. That year, he threw 618 times for 4689 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 INTs. His Y/A was 7.33 over the first 4 years, peaking at 7.7. If THAT isn't a major jump, I don't know what you would consider a major jump....

Brad Johnson

in the years he started more than 9 games

95   7.5697   6.7299   7.722000 6.8601   6.802   6.7603   6.69
if anything he got worse after 4 years.
That's cute. Johnson was a journeyman caliber QB in Minny, which is why he bounced around a bit later. The Y/A is only indicative of their down-field offense at the time. He also threw for 34 TDs to 29 INTs in Minny. Not quite efficient. He would have posted even better numbers in Tampa than he already did if not for a dead arm. That was the last thing a guy of his skill set needed, and his career was over from there.

QB rating is practically useless and INT numbers are probably just a useless, far too many variables and far too unreliable from year to year.

I don't like QB rating very much, either. But you're kidding yourself with the INT-bashing. The only real variable to Eli's INT numbers that mattered was his penchant to throw off his back foot and into double-coverage. Lapses that he still has now, but not nearly in the same numbers. I also think it's hilarious that all you talk about is Y/A when you discredit INTs due to too many variables. Were there not a ton of variables that went into Vick or Gannon's jump in Y/A, going to more talented offenses led by better offensive coaches and playing in different systems that led to drastically improved results? Very short-sighted and convenient to your argument......
You seem to confuse bulk stats with efficiency.

I also think it's hilarious that all you talk about is Y/A when you discredit INTs due to too many variables.

why
First off, I had no idea that comp % was a bulk stat. If you don't think throwing for a better comp %, more TDs and less INTs isn't being more efficient, then you're in the extreme minority. Especially as it pertains to fantasy. Secondly, this whole thing spawned off of the idea that Ryan can't jump to the next level. The next level is completely tied to bulk stats, so yeah.

Lastly, I explained the question in the very next sentence, which you ignored and still ask why. I can come back when you don't want to play dumb, if that works better for you...

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Well the Ryan hype train is gaining steam - two ongoing drafts he was just drafted in the 4th flippin round in both (and both are 4 pt passing TD leagues)

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Rarely do you have both WRs going high in drafts and the QB not going top 5 or so. Been wondering for a few weeks now whether Ryan can get it downfield with accuracy on a consistent basis. That's what's holding me back. Each week you'll see at least one WR with the numbers, but not both. ATL simply does not work on stretching the field; they have too many trucks in the backfield. Dinks/Dunks/Slants are Ryan's basic checkdowns so I'm staying away until at least mid-6th.

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Well the Ryan hype train is gaining steam - two ongoing drafts he was just drafted in the 4th flippin round in both (and both are 4 pt passing TD leagues)

That's not too shocking given the number of people in this thread attempting to justify the hype, but you can't really complain about too much an opponent overvaluing him. :thumbup: Edited by D.C. Trout

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Matty Hype?

Was on my radar before the big rise for he and Julio -- now the price is too steep. If he's just hanging there after the big 5 when people starting picking other QBs I don't want (Vick, Romo) sure I'll take him. But that isn't gonna happen.

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Ryan had a 7.65 YPA in the 2nd half. Weeks 9-16 last year (rested most of week 17): 2388 yards, 18 td's, 4 int, 305 pass attempts, 7.8 YPA. The 2nd half plus a (hopefully) healthier Julio Jones this year should indicate a jump in YPA is on the way. I don't see him touching 5000, but a 7.75 YPA on 590 attempts seems feasible, which would put him close to 4600. Some people may point to his terrible playoff game, but the Giants held Aaron Rodgers to a 5.74 YPA in the playoffs, and held Brady to 6.73. YPA can be a fluke anyways. Eli Manning's was inflated thanks to Victor Cruz having numerous 10-20 yard passes go 65+ yards. I'd say looking at his surrounding cast and his 2nd half rise, Ryan seems like a good bet for around 4500 yards and 35tds

Why cherry pick these numbers? What makes his 2nd half numbers more reliable for predicting this up coming season than his first half numbers, or his last 3/4 season numbers, his last 8 home/road games?
One point brought up was that the Falcons were 4th in the NFL in passing and can't become more of a passing team..but with 305 pass attempts in his final 8 full regular season games it would seem to be that they have already pre-followed through on their coaches promise to pass more. 600 pass attempts plus a healthier, more experience Julio put him in a good position to push for 4500+ yards.

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I think the hype train has officially gone out of control. Ryan went 11th the other night in one of our FBG staff leagues. As in 11th OVERALL, not QB11.

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Ryan had a 7.65 YPA in the 2nd half. Weeks 9-16 last year (rested most of week 17): 2388 yards, 18 td's, 4 int, 305 pass attempts, 7.8 YPA. The 2nd half plus a (hopefully) healthier Julio Jones this year should indicate a jump in YPA is on the way. I don't see him touching 5000, but a 7.75 YPA on 590 attempts seems feasible, which would put him close to 4600. Some people may point to his terrible playoff game, but the Giants held Aaron Rodgers to a 5.74 YPA in the playoffs, and held Brady to 6.73. YPA can be a fluke anyways. Eli Manning's was inflated thanks to Victor Cruz having numerous 10-20 yard passes go 65+ yards. I'd say looking at his surrounding cast and his 2nd half rise, Ryan seems like a good bet for around 4500 yards and 35tds

Why cherry pick these numbers? What makes his 2nd half numbers more reliable for predicting this up coming season than his first half numbers, or his last 3/4 season numbers, his last 8 home/road games?
A healthy and more experienced Julio Jones? The idea that these two circumstances ought to mean ATL down the stretch last year had a collection of offensive talent that should more closely represent the one they're rolling into this season with? The fact that this was the only such stretch featuring such relevant data? Edited by Zeff

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I think the hype train has officially gone out of control. Ryan went 11th the other night in one of our FBG staff leagues. As in 11th OVERALL, not QB11.

Obviously under "double scoring for all BC alums" rules, wherein Kuechly and Kiwanuka get taken at the 1-2 turn.

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I think the hype train has officially gone out of control. Ryan went 11th the other night in one of our FBG staff leagues. As in 11th OVERALL, not QB11.

I like Ryan to take a big step forward this year, but that is nuts. Then again, so is taking Cam Newton at 11, which I saw in one big money league draft over the weekend.

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I think the hype train has officially gone out of control. Ryan went 11th the other night in one of our FBG staff leagues. As in 11th OVERALL, not QB11.

I like Ryan to take a big step forward this year, but that is nuts. Then again, so is taking Cam Newton at 11, which I saw in one big money league draft over the weekend.
Agreed, Ryan is now into the overhyped range. I believe he will be top 5 QB and I think he has a realistic chance to be top 3, but drafting any QB who hasn't already been consistently top tier like the other elites already named in the first round and even second is quite a reach.

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I think the hype train has officially gone out of control. Ryan went 11th the other night in one of our FBG staff leagues. As in 11th OVERALL, not QB11.

whoa ...who was it? Edited by One

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Ryan's yet to break 30 TDs, has only barely tossed for more than 4,000 yards and 350 completions--going into his 5th season. Even with good receivers, he still has a lot of work to do. Then, when you consider that ATL has a more useful backfield, it's doubtful they'll throw nearly as much as Detroit did last year. That's not to say that the potential for a breakout season isn't there, but whether Ryan's able to convert is another story altogether.

Good points but a similar statement could have been made against Rogers, Brady, and other elite QB's before they broke out.Rogers had never thrown for more than 30 td's in a season until last year and he's in a full blown west coast, throw it every down, we have no decent rb, offense. Yet, he's been the first QB off the board in every draft I've been in this season.Tom Brady never threw for more than 28 td's in a season until he blew up for 50 in 2007.I see a progression with Matt Ryan just like the progression seen with other elite QB's. His TD's have gone from 16 to 22 to 28 to 29. His passing yards took a dip in his 2nd season but has progressed the last two seasons with a 4200 yard effort last season. He has 3 solid targets and Harry Douglas is a quality slot guy. Jaquizz Rogers gives him a much better receiver out of the backfield than Turner on 3rd downs and every indication from the coaching staff is pointing to them throwing more this season to take advantage of those weapons.I don't think anyone is trying to tout Ryan as a can't miss QB like Brady, Brees, or Rogers. I think the hype is focused on him being the next BREAKOUT quarterback and all the numbers seem to point at that being a safe wager.

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I think the hype train has officially gone out of control. Ryan went 11th the other night in one of our FBG staff leagues. As in 11th OVERALL, not QB11.

whoa ...who was it?
Even I will agree that there is no value in taking Matt Ryan #11 overall. I have Ryan in 2 leagues (both drafted within the past week) and I haven't had to take him any earlier than the middle of the end of the 4th round.

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Ryan could throw for 40 TD and 5000 yards this season. He's this years Stafford.

My exact thoughts, and I had Stafford last year. Looking for this years and I found it, RYAN.
Can u get ryan 8th and lower like Stafford last yr? Otherwise not the same
Good point. Same for me though, Stafford went 4.02 and 3.04 in my QB heavy leagues last year. I think Ryan will be QB6 taken, meaning 3rdAnd the 4.02 was one flippin' pick before me, waiting to take him. That guy made the playoffs and I didn't, largely because of that :wall: Edited by Monsters of the Midway

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I think the hype train has officially gone out of control. Ryan went 11th the other night in one of our FBG staff leagues. As in 11th OVERALL, not QB11.

Well at least Joe and David have a pink slip candidate

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Ryan could throw for 40 TD and 5000 yards this season. He's this years Stafford.

My exact thoughts, and I had Stafford last year. Looking for this years and I found it, RYAN.
Can u get ryan 8th and lower like Stafford last yr? Otherwise not the same
Stafford's stock was down last year due to his inability to stay on the field. I think Ryan has displayed remarkable toughness, especially that game last year when he looked like his ankle was destroyed vs. Det. If Ryan played in only 3 games last year, I'd think he'd be available in the 8th or lower.

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I'm not sold at all. I'll gladly take Cutler or Schaub in rounds 8 or 9 and watch them put up comparable numbers while everyone else reachEs p to rounds 3 or 4 for Ryan.

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Im Sold....grabbed him with my 5th rd pick

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/preseason-flames-lames-ryan-another-planet-locker-crashes-194405112--fantasy.html

Peering through rose-colored glasses, the fifth-year passer is on the precipice of joining the game's elite. Through two exhibition games, he's bombarded opponents with an onslaught of completions, going 27 of 34 for 329 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Very comfortable and composed within Dirk Koetter's retooled no-huddle, three-wide offense, he's looked nothing short of spectacular. As a result, owners are sacrificing first borns to secure his services.

Over the past week, Ryan has graduated from mid-round sleeper to early draft must-own triggering wild, dangerous predictions by industry "experts" — 4,500 yards, 35 … 37 … 40 touchdowns.

Jump to Conclusions mats are in short supply.

To be fair, the Atlanta offense looks Usain Bolt-fast. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and, arguably the most salacious name in the virtual game, Harry Douglas, on roster, it should. The impressive arsenal will tax defenses. That's a given. But it doesn't mean Ryan is bound to finish alongside or ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford or even Eli Manning. Remember last year, the Falcons tallied the fourth-most pass attempts in the NFL (594). Unless the Falcons defense is one of the league's worst, it's unlikely that number swells well-over 600 this season, reducing Ryan's chances for a huge statistical leap. Yes, he could be more efficient, but he executed at a high-level last year posting a 29:12 TD:INT split. And though Michael Turner has looked like a fossilized slug, Atlanta won't completely abandon the run. Jacquizz Rodgers, Jason Snelling and The Burner should have their number called roughly 45-48 percent of the time. Put it altogether and modest, not mammoth, gains are likely for No. 2 this year.

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Ryan could throw for 40 TD and 5000 yards this season. He's this years Stafford.

My exact thoughts, and I had Stafford last year. Looking for this years and I found it, RYAN.
Can u get ryan 8th and lower like Stafford last yr? Otherwise not the same
Stafford's stock was down last year due to his inability to stay on the field. I think Ryan has displayed remarkable toughness, especially that game last year when he looked like his ankle was destroyed vs. Det. If Ryan played in only 3 games last year, I'd think he'd be available in the 8th or lower.
I don't think that's what he's saying. Most people here feel Ryan is about to have an awesome season, but just not up there with the elite 4. Last season Stafford was being drafted between the 8th-11th rounds. This season Ryan has become a 2nd-4th rd pick, Yudkin even saw him go 1st rd in an FBG draft. Where is the value? Preseason hype has taken him out of the running as 'this year's Stafford', a late round pick with top 5 upside.

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Seeing his stock skyrocket is making me happy I drafted last week. I like him where I got him in the 6th round, but hate him in the 3rd or 4th.

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