Chaka
Footballguy
I totally understand your point but I think Britt is a real wild card in this equation. The guy has flashed talent so if he can get out of his head then he could provide the first legitimate #1 WR Bradford has ever had. That could definitely help Bradford improve on his mediocre career Y/A and TD% numbers.The pace Bradford was on last year was so far above his career best, that unless you're openly predicting an injury, it would be insane to predict less than career best numbers for him. That, AND he added Britt, AND the other two favorites to be in the WR mix will be second year players now. Sometimes, even a good rule of thumb stops making sense when you look at the specifics.And Kellen Clemens had terrible passing numbers but we're not talking about Clemens.The Rams were 28th out of 32 NFL teams last season in pass attempts. Kellen Clemens (242 PA in 9+ games) was pretty much the definition of "game manager". Assuming Bradford remains healthy, does anyone actually expect the Rams to throw the ball less this year?Throwing lasers and connecting on deep balls in camp is all well and good but I am still skeptical that he is anything more than a 6.8 ish YPA guy. I think Bradford's best hope for breaking through and being a guy who truly challenges defenses is if Britt comes out at peak form. He had the potential to be a difference maker and that would be a huge boon to Bradford because I don't see him as the type of QB who turns players into difference makers.
Despite that I think Bradford could be a 24ish TD guy with 3,800 yards but he needs more help to be a 30+ TD guy.
I also think fantasy players need to be prepared for the Rams to be much more of a running team.
When Bradford was playing (7 games) they were on pace to throw the ball 608 times (including the 4 attempts Clemmens had in the game Bradford got injured) that would have been good for 10th most attempts last season. Through 5 games they were on pace to throw an incredible 691 passes.
So Bradfords 2 TD/game average last year came in a top 10 offense for passing attempts. Furthermore even with those gaudy pass attempt #s Bradford was on pace to finish with 3,915 yards, which would have placed him 10th overall but his 6.44 Y/A would have been the worst among the top 10 by a .5 yards.
Clemens was on pace for 423 passing attempts, if you plug Bradford's 6.44 Y/A and 5.3% TD rate (which is better than his career rates of 6.3 Y/A & 3.4% TD rate) you get 2,724 yards and 22 TDs.
I don't think it will be as bad as all that but I think the Rams would prefer to be in the bottom half of pass attempts this season (570-580 attempts) so if we use his career best Y/A of 6.7 and 5.3% TD rate that would give you 3,852 yards and 30 TDs. I would call that his absolute ceiling. That would have been good for 12th in yards and 6th in TDs last year. It would be great if it happened but I am always a little skeptical predicting career best numbers from players.
But it's a big "if", no doubt.