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LHUCKS

Get Your Money out of the Market

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Market has started to turn here....

Apple is in free fall, so the global economy is slumping.

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:coffee:

The Dow is still up (slightly) from where it was when you started this thread. Shouldn't you wait for it to actually decline before you bump it?
I didn't bump it.

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of all the calls you've made over the years is this the worst?

Where did I say the time horizon is 3 weeks?
please define your time frame then.
:bump: :lmao:

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I know lhucks gets a bad rap here but he is dead on with this one.

The market is getting ready to implode ala a few years ago. If you are heavily into the market you will lose a lot of money over the next year.

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I know lhucks gets a bad rap here but he is dead on with this one.

The market is getting ready to implode ala a few years ago. If you are heavily into the market you will lose a lot of money over the next year.

I doubt it, but please tell us why you think this?

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I know lhucks gets a bad rap here but he is dead on with this one.

The market is getting ready to implode ala a few years ago. If you are heavily into the market you will lose a lot of money over the next year.

I doubt it, but please tell us why you think this?
The doom and gloom stories that I have seen have brokers telling big investors to sell sell sell before the end of the year to take advantage of existing capital gains laws before they expire and the taxes go up a ton for next year. If this is true, I can see a dip happening, but not the cataclysm predicted.

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Quantatative Easing 3 may not be working like 1 and 2 did.

My link

You might have picked this news story linked at the bottom of that page for better impact.

Run for the hills

you cant take any article seriously that says the market will go through a “correction” of 90%.

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I didn't bump this thread as to say the market is gong to implode on it's self nor did I do it to say that Lhucks is right. All I remember was a few of us saying that the market as a whole has come along way and that the so called fiscal cliff would impact the market sometime after QE3, and then that idea got crapped on as the market ran up 5-6%.

I think the Market is in a very very interesting level here. I personally wont go on record as saying the S&P will do X Y or Z because nobody knows for sure. I will say however that now is a time for active management of your wealth. Tread carefully.

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I didn't bump this thread as to say the market is gong to implode on it's self nor did I do it to say that Lhucks is right. All I remember was a few of us saying that the market as a whole has come along way and that the so called fiscal cliff would impact the market sometime after QE3, and then that idea got crapped on as the market ran up 5-6%. I think the Market is in a very very interesting level here. I personally wont go on record as saying the S&P will do X Y or Z because nobody knows for sure. I will say however that now is a time for active management of your wealth. Tread carefully.

Especially with less than 2 weeks knowing if there is either a change of the guard (guessing good for the market) or the markets reaction to 4 more years of the same POTUS (guessing no bueno for the market).

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I didn't bump this thread as to say the market is gong to implode on it's self nor did I do it to say that Lhucks is right. All I remember was a few of us saying that the market as a whole has come along way and that the so called fiscal cliff would impact the market sometime after QE3, and then that idea got crapped on as the market ran up 5-6%. I think the Market is in a very very interesting level here. I personally wont go on record as saying the S&P will do X Y or Z because nobody knows for sure. I will say however that now is a time for active management of your wealth. Tread carefully.

Especially with less than 2 weeks knowing if there is either a change of the guard (guessing good for the market) or the markets reaction to 4 more years of the same POTUS (guessing no bueno for the market).
Obama's term has been pretty bueno for the equities markets...

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I didn't bump this thread as to say the market is gong to implode on it's self nor did I do it to say that Lhucks is right. All I remember was a few of us saying that the market as a whole has come along way and that the so called fiscal cliff would impact the market sometime after QE3, and then that idea got crapped on as the market ran up 5-6%. I think the Market is in a very very interesting level here. I personally wont go on record as saying the S&P will do X Y or Z because nobody knows for sure. I will say however that now is a time for active management of your wealth. Tread carefully.

Especially with less than 2 weeks knowing if there is either a change of the guard (guessing good for the market) or the markets reaction to 4 more years of the same POTUS (guessing no bueno for the market).
Its really a thread on it's own, but I think Barry would be better for the market in the short/medium term. Romney has to hold the line a little bit on the fiscal cliff (as far as cuts go) and I think that would impact the market more then any other reason related to the election.

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I didn't bump this thread as to say the market is gong to implode on it's self nor did I do it to say that Lhucks is right. All I remember was a few of us saying that the market as a whole has come along way and that the so called fiscal cliff would impact the market sometime after QE3, and then that idea got crapped on as the market ran up 5-6%. I think the Market is in a very very interesting level here. I personally wont go on record as saying the S&P will do X Y or Z because nobody knows for sure. I will say however that now is a time for active management of your wealth. Tread carefully.

Especially with less than 2 weeks knowing if there is either a change of the guard (guessing good for the market) or the markets reaction to 4 more years of the same POTUS (guessing no bueno for the market).
Its really a thread on it's own, but I think Barry would be better for the market in the short/medium term. Romney has to hold the line a little bit on the fiscal cliff (as far as cuts go) and I think that would impact the market more then any other reason related to the election.
Don't markets typically (over)adjust more for long term foreseeable gains more so than short/intermediate gains?

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I didn't bump this thread as to say the market is gong to implode on it's self nor did I do it to say that Lhucks is right. All I remember was a few of us saying that the market as a whole has come along way and that the so called fiscal cliff would impact the market sometime after QE3, and then that idea got crapped on as the market ran up 5-6%. I think the Market is in a very very interesting level here. I personally wont go on record as saying the S&P will do X Y or Z because nobody knows for sure. I will say however that now is a time for active management of your wealth. Tread carefully.

Especially with less than 2 weeks knowing if there is either a change of the guard (guessing good for the market) or the markets reaction to 4 more years of the same POTUS (guessing no bueno for the market).
Obama's term has been pretty bueno for the equities markets...
Thank you Ben Bernanke.

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I didn't bump this thread as to say the market is gong to implode on it's self nor did I do it to say that Lhucks is right. All I remember was a few of us saying that the market as a whole has come along way and that the so called fiscal cliff would impact the market sometime after QE3, and then that idea got crapped on as the market ran up 5-6%. I think the Market is in a very very interesting level here. I personally wont go on record as saying the S&P will do X Y or Z because nobody knows for sure. I will say however that now is a time for active management of your wealth. Tread carefully.

Especially with less than 2 weeks knowing if there is either a change of the guard (guessing good for the market) or the markets reaction to 4 more years of the same POTUS (guessing no bueno for the market).
Obama's term has been pretty bueno for the equities markets...
Thank you Ben Bernanke.
No doubt. Inflate the money supply and watch hard assets increase in value.

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Man, if anyone reads this thread for any sense of market advice they are making a huge mistake.

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For the first time in three years, US corporations are poised to report lower sales. From technology to fast food giants, Falling Revenue Dings StocksAmerica's largest companies are on track to report lower quarterly sales for the first time in three years, a broad and gloomy verdict on the health of the global economy.The drumbeat of weaker revenue is particularly troubling to investors looking for a read on the health of the global economy because it reflects underlying demand. Companies have a lot of levers to pull to improve profits: They can sell assets, buy back stock or cut costs. But it is hard to improve sales unless consumers and companies spend more of their money.The earnings reports are providing a counterweight to optimism triggered by a string of improvements in U.S. retail sales and home sales, data that pointed to an end to the slump in the housing market and a recovery in consumer confidence.Several corporate chiefs said conditions worsened in the past month of the quarter and pointed to further weakness into next year. That means companies will be under pressure to cut costs and hold back spending to meet their profit targets, potentially putting a further drag on growth."I will tell you, one of the differences is it has been very rare that we've ever seen all of our major markets experiencing the impact of these kinds of global economies at the same time," McDonald's Chief Executive.GE cut its forecast for revenue growth this year to 3%; three weeks ago it expected 5%. Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin attributed the lower forecast to faster than expected downsizing of GE Capital.Profit and revenues at the biggest U.S. companies have been expanding since the third quarter of 2009, a bright spot in what has been a lackluster recovery. But that run appears to be coming to an end this quarter. Growth in sales started decelerating in the second half of last year and ground to a near halt last quarter. Profits are expected to shrink by 1.8% for the third quarter, according to Thomson Reuters."You've got very slow global GDP growth," GE's Mr. Sherin said.Belief in the Fed's ability to pull rabbits out of its hat is about the only thing this market has going for it, even though close scrutiny shows the Fed is not really in control of much of anything.Stocks are priced beyond perfection, for growth that will not happen. When this matters no one knows, but it will matter.Unless it's different this time (and it won't be), real returns in equities do not look good going forward.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/drumbeat-of-weaker-revenues.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

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For the first time in three years, US corporations are poised to report lower sales. From technology to fast food giants, Falling Revenue Dings StocksAmerica's largest companies are on track to report lower quarterly sales for the first time in three years, a broad and gloomy verdict on the health of the global economy.The drumbeat of weaker revenue is particularly troubling to investors looking for a read on the health of the global economy because it reflects underlying demand. Companies have a lot of levers to pull to improve profits: They can sell assets, buy back stock or cut costs. But it is hard to improve sales unless consumers and companies spend more of their money.The earnings reports are providing a counterweight to optimism triggered by a string of improvements in U.S. retail sales and home sales, data that pointed to an end to the slump in the housing market and a recovery in consumer confidence.Several corporate chiefs said conditions worsened in the past month of the quarter and pointed to further weakness into next year. That means companies will be under pressure to cut costs and hold back spending to meet their profit targets, potentially putting a further drag on growth."I will tell you, one of the differences is it has been very rare that we've ever seen all of our major markets experiencing the impact of these kinds of global economies at the same time," McDonald's Chief Executive.GE cut its forecast for revenue growth this year to 3%; three weeks ago it expected 5%. Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin attributed the lower forecast to faster than expected downsizing of GE Capital.Profit and revenues at the biggest U.S. companies have been expanding since the third quarter of 2009, a bright spot in what has been a lackluster recovery. But that run appears to be coming to an end this quarter. Growth in sales started decelerating in the second half of last year and ground to a near halt last quarter. Profits are expected to shrink by 1.8% for the third quarter, according to Thomson Reuters."You've got very slow global GDP growth," GE's Mr. Sherin said.Belief in the Fed's ability to pull rabbits out of its hat is about the only thing this market has going for it, even though close scrutiny shows the Fed is not really in control of much of anything.Stocks are priced beyond perfection, for growth that will not happen. When this matters no one knows, but it will matter.Unless it's different this time (and it won't be), real returns in equities do not look good going forward.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/drumbeat-of-weaker-revenues.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
Just as a note Mish is a perma-bear. I read him all the time and he writes great stuff, but you have to look at his writings accounting for his slant.

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Man, if anyone reads this thread for any sense of market advice they are making a huge mistake.

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For the first time in three years, US corporations are poised to report lower sales. From technology to fast food giants, Falling Revenue Dings StocksAmerica's largest companies are on track to report lower quarterly sales for the first time in three years, a broad and gloomy verdict on the health of the global economy.The drumbeat of weaker revenue is particularly troubling to investors looking for a read on the health of the global economy because it reflects underlying demand. Companies have a lot of levers to pull to improve profits: They can sell assets, buy back stock or cut costs. But it is hard to improve sales unless consumers and companies spend more of their money.The earnings reports are providing a counterweight to optimism triggered by a string of improvements in U.S. retail sales and home sales, data that pointed to an end to the slump in the housing market and a recovery in consumer confidence.Several corporate chiefs said conditions worsened in the past month of the quarter and pointed to further weakness into next year. That means companies will be under pressure to cut costs and hold back spending to meet their profit targets, potentially putting a further drag on growth."I will tell you, one of the differences is it has been very rare that we've ever seen all of our major markets experiencing the impact of these kinds of global economies at the same time," McDonald's Chief Executive.GE cut its forecast for revenue growth this year to 3%; three weeks ago it expected 5%. Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin attributed the lower forecast to faster than expected downsizing of GE Capital.Profit and revenues at the biggest U.S. companies have been expanding since the third quarter of 2009, a bright spot in what has been a lackluster recovery. But that run appears to be coming to an end this quarter. Growth in sales started decelerating in the second half of last year and ground to a near halt last quarter. Profits are expected to shrink by 1.8% for the third quarter, according to Thomson Reuters."You've got very slow global GDP growth," GE's Mr. Sherin said.Belief in the Fed's ability to pull rabbits out of its hat is about the only thing this market has going for it, even though close scrutiny shows the Fed is not really in control of much of anything.Stocks are priced beyond perfection, for growth that will not happen. When this matters no one knows, but it will matter.Unless it's different this time (and it won't be), real returns in equities do not look good going forward.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/drumbeat-of-weaker-revenues.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
Just as a note Mish is a perma-bear. I read him all the time and he writes great stuff, but you have to look at his writings accounting for his slant.
Understood but you can understand his logic right? High public debt, low growth prospects, and high FT unemployment is a recipe for disaster.

In the 20 years ended 2011 stocks were actually beaten by 20 year-term government bonds and were also extremely volatile. Gold also did very well over these 20 years.Finally, if we focus on just the 12 years since the turn of this new century, which also coincides with the 12 years since the last stock market peak (bubble), stocks did very poorly in that period. Gold was the winner by far. And 20-year government bonds also did very well.

http://www.investorsfriend.com/asset_performance.htm

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THANK YOU LHUCKS

No problem Pickles.Consider this thread a selfless act.:coffee:

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The Dow was at 12,997 when LHUCKS started this thread and it's already all the way down to 13,075.

whenever you're ready to give the recap, ace.

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:lmao:

oops
That 66 point drop over the last 2+ months has been pretty devastating.You start this Monday, you might have something going. You bump this today, just more idiocy.

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:lmao:

oops
That 66 point drop over the last 2+ months has been pretty devastating.You start this Monday, you might have something going. You bump this today, just more idiocy.
oh, we're just getting started big guy.

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:lmao:

oops
That 66 point drop over the last 2+ months has been pretty devastating.You start this Monday, you might have something going. You bump this today, just more idiocy.
oh, we're just getting started big guy.
No. We're not. Your idiocy has been rampant for quite some time.

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:lmao:

oops
That 66 point drop over the last 2+ months has been pretty devastating.You start this Monday, you might have something going. You bump this today, just more idiocy.
It's pretty much impossible to call a top. His advice was sound then and is sound now. If you are heavily in stocks you are going to get destroyed very soon.

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:lmao:

oops
That 66 point drop over the last 2+ months has been pretty devastating.You start this Monday, you might have something going. You bump this today, just more idiocy.
It's pretty much impossible to call a top. His advice was sound then and is sound now. If you are heavily in stocks you are going to get destroyed very soon.
Nice to have some objectivity in this thread. :thumbup: Edited by LHUCKS

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:lmao:

oops
That 66 point drop over the last 2+ months has been pretty devastating.You start this Monday, you might have something going. You bump this today, just more idiocy.
It's pretty much impossible to call a top. His advice was sound then and is sound now. If you are heavily in stocks you are going to get destroyed very soon.
Nice to have some objectivity in this thread. :thumbup:
Basically people think that the debt doesn't matter and claim that there is no inflation. When people refuse to look at reality, it's not worth discussing it with them. Inflation is rampant, and the debt is out of control.

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My link

Of course, my notification to this forum was several weeks prior to the articles that have been coming out the past few days.

:gamechanger:

Edited by LHUCKS

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here's a question.

What warrants a "get your money out of the market" post?

impending 500 point dow drop?

impending 1000 point dow drop?

impending 3000 point dow drop?

1000 points is plenty, but honestly i feel like those are the waves of the market.

But honestly if the anticipated correction isn't 15% of the dow or more I think most long term investors are wasting their time market timing

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here's a question.What warrants a "get your money out of the market" post?impending 500 point dow drop?impending 1000 point dow drop?impending 3000 point dow drop?1000 points is plenty, but honestly i feel like those are the waves of the market.But honestly if the anticipated correction isn't 15% of the dow or more I think most long term investors are wasting their time market timing

I agree with your premise. I personally think another market crash similar to 2008 is coming.

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here's a question.What warrants a "get your money out of the market" post?impending 500 point dow drop?impending 1000 point dow drop?impending 3000 point dow drop?1000 points is plenty, but honestly i feel like those are the waves of the market.But honestly if the anticipated correction isn't 15% of the dow or more I think most long term investors are wasting their time market timing

I would be surprised if the market hit is less than 500 points(very very conservative call) based on the information I get from our analysts and strategists. Conservative corporations tend to guard against the worse so I could be getting a skewed perspective. We'll see, all eyes are on D.C.I may push my time horizon on this from 4 months(original post) to six months.There are just way too many SIGNFICANT red flags out there.Again, ALL the smart guys I know that are economists for a living got out over a month ago. Actions speak louder than words when it comes to money matters. Edited by LHUCKS

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here's a question.What warrants a "get your money out of the market" post?impending 500 point dow drop?impending 1000 point dow drop?impending 3000 point dow drop?1000 points is plenty, but honestly i feel like those are the waves of the market.But honestly if the anticipated correction isn't 15% of the dow or more I think most long term investors are wasting their time market timing

I would be surprised if the market hit is less than 500 points(very very conservative call) based on the information I get from our analysts and strategists. Conservative corporations tend to guard against the worse so I could be getting a skewed perspective. We'll see, all eyes are on D.C.I may push my time horizon on this from 4 months(original post) to six months.There are just way too many SIGNFICANT red flags out there.
:lmao:

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