Matthew Stafford was working toward a potential career year before he got hurt. Does he crack the top-10 QBs in 2020, or does his lack of a rushing ability cap his ceiling?
Matt: I’m just bearish on saying any non-obvious quarterback will definitely finish as a Top-10 option. That said, such a finish is within Stafford’s range of outcomes. The biggest difference between Stafford last year and his previous seasons: He was letting it rip with Darrell Bevell as his offensive coordinator. Stafford averaged 10.6 air yards per pass attempt in 2019 compared to a measly 6.9 the year prior. That shouldn’t go away considering he has two strong vertical receivers starting outside in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Stafford’s early-season schedule (Bears, at Packers, at Cardinals, Saints) isn’t too intimidating. He is on the radar as a late-round quarterback option.
Scott: All that matters is that Stafford has a plausible path to the Top 10, and he’s priced affordably (the current QB13 in Yahoo ADP). He was clicking in Darrell Bevell’s offense before getting hurt, and Stafford has exciting toys to work with. Recency bias is a hell of a drug; your opponents are more likely to focus on Stafford missing two months as opposed to how he crushed it the prior two months. Take advantage.
Liz: A top-ten fantasy finish is certainly in Matt Stafford’s range of possible outcomes. Last year he was on pace to close out 2019 as the 10th-best QB in fantasy, posting five top-six or better outings over the first nine weeks of the year. Stafford’s play seemed reinvigorated under new OC Darrell Bevell, as he flirted with a top-six true passer rating (107.9) and a top-two adjusted yards per attempt (8.6). It’s also worth noting that he was on pace for nearly 36 rush attempts — a higher total than he’d put up since 2016, which could be attributed to Bevell’s run-friendly approach as well as his recent exposure to the success of mobile QBs.
There’s no denying the pass-catchers at Staff’s disposal are next level, but the offensive line gives me pause. With two new starters added to the unit via free agency and the draft, I’ll be curious to see if the group can gel. Last season, Detroit’s offensive trenchmen gave up pressure on 37.5% of Stafford’s dropbacks, allowing an average of exactly two sacks per game. Stafford’s limited mobility — in tandem with his middling protection — creates obvious concern regarding re-injury. Yet, the same could be said of the three QBs I have ranked ahead of him: Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady. I just trust those guys more, which is why Stafford is my QB11.