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NoShow Moreno (1 Viewer)

EBF

Footballguy
After seeing guys like Marshawn Lynch, Cedric Benson, and Thomas Jones come back from the abyss to salvage their careers, I'm always on the lookout for the next former first round "bust" who might rebound after falling on hard times. Knowshon Moreno is one guy who fits the bill. He was the 12th pick in the 2009 NFL draft, but faded into irrelevancy. Here are his rushing stats by year:

2009 - 247 carries, 947 yards, 3.8 YPC

2010 - 182 carries, 779 yards, 4.3 YPC

2011 - 37 carries, 179 yards, 4.8 YPC (season ended with a torn ACL)

2012 - 8 carries, 15 yards, 1.9 YPC

What do people think? Any value here? Any chance he becomes the starter if/when McGahee moves on or slows down? Any chance he gets a starting role elsewhere, or is he just another outright bust like Laurence Maroney or William Green? What kind of rookie pick would you be willing to spend to acquire him?

 
For reference, here is how Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson starter their careers:

Thomas Jones

2000 - 112 carries, 373 yards, 3.3 YPC

2001 - 112 carries, 380 yards, 3.4 YPC

2002 - 138 carries, 511 yards, 3.7 YPC

2003 - 137 carries, 627 yards, 4.6 YPC

2004 - 240 carries, 948 yards, 4.0 YPC

2005-2009 - five straight 1000+ yard rushing seasons

Cedric Benson

2005 - 67 carries, 272 yards, 4.1 YPC

2006 - 157 carries, 647 yards, 4.1 YPC

2007 - 196 carries, 674 yards, 3.4 YPC

2008 - 214 carries, 747 yards, 3.5 YPC

2009-2011 - three straight 1000+ yard rushing seasons

I think people sometimes forget how awful some players were before they hit their stride. I know that both of these guys were written off as complete busts at one point in their careers. Maybe a guy like Moreno or Beanie Wells (who I think is crap) might follow suit.

 
After seeing guys like Marshawn Lynch, Cedric Benson, and Thomas Jones come back from the abyss to salvage their careers, I'm always on the lookout for the next former first round "bust" who might rebound after falling on hard times. Knowshon Moreno is one guy who fits the bill. He was the 12th pick in the 2009 NFL draft, but faded into irrelevancy. Here are his rushing stats by year:2009 - 247 carries, 947 yards, 3.8 YPC2010 - 182 carries, 779 yards, 4.3 YPC2011 - 37 carries, 179 yards, 4.8 YPC (season ended with a torn ACL)2012 - 8 carries, 15 yards, 1.9 YPCWhat do people think? Any value here? Any chance he becomes the starter if/when McGahee moves on or slows down? Any chance he gets a starting role elsewhere, or is he just another outright bust like Laurence Maroney or William Green? What kind of rookie pick would you be willing to spend to acquire him?
I remember his college days at UGA and attending a game between the hedges where the "Moreno for Heisman" with the silhouette of him hurdling the defender were abundant. I always felt that highlight reel play contributed to what I always considered a bloated assessment of his talent. I obviously thought he went too the early in the draft, and if anything was destined to be a backup in the NFL. He was obviously given a couple shots at proving his worth as evidenced by the stats you posted, but I think his opportunities have come to an end. The current administration obviously spent a high draft pick on Hillman for a reason and I think if anything the only thing keeping Moreno from the bottom of the depth chart is the rookies understanding of the system and blocking schemes for Manning who is obviously their huge investment in need of quality protection. Also, the fact that an aging McGahee, 5 years his senior, was considered superior is another red flag. That's what I think. As for your other questions - no I do not see any value. His nickname is apt. In the absence of McGahee I think he is involved in a worthless RBBC at best, and 3rd down back at worst. I do not think he will ever get an opportunity to start elsewhere as he has been given ample opportunity to audition for such a role and has fallen short every time. There are more talented backups in the league a team would look to acquire first or go through the draft where more talented backs can be had in rounds outside the first. So in short, outright bust. For the last question - I personally wouldn't consider spending one as you can probably already tell from my perception.
 
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Fair enough. I am not predicting any kind of success. Just wondering what people think.

One reason why I might be more optimistic than most is because I'm not really sold on Hillman as anything more than a change of pace back yet. If he ends up being a disappointment then maybe the team will give Moreno a shot. He seems to be ahead of Hillman for now on the depth chart.

 
Hillman will be the #2 by mid-season. Moreno is indecisive (and fumbles), Hillman will be very good, He is quick, reads lanes and can flat out scoot, however, he is not very good in pass protection. This is holding him back. He is a great pre-emptive pick-up.

Fantasy WW RB's,

Bryce Brown

Bernard Pierce

Ronnie Hillman - I know this sounds crazy - He reminded me of Walter Payton the way he reads running lanes and cutbacks. We'll see.

Bolden

Blount

Thomas

Woodhead

Vereen

 
I'd guess Ingram.

Wouldn't shock if Moreno was. I think he's better than Hillman and Lance Ball (latter I'm not sure how he continues to make the 53). I was mildly surprised he was healthy scratch this past week, but it's a clear sign he's nearing his end in Denver.

He looked solid running the ball this preseason, considering he was coming off serious injury.

 
'Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub said:
I'd guess Ingram. Wouldn't shock if Moreno was. I think he's better than Hillman and Lance Ball (latter I'm not sure how he continues to make the 53). I was mildly surprised he was healthy scratch this past week, but it's a clear sign he's nearing his end in Denver.He looked solid running the ball this preseason, considering he was coming off serious injury.
If McGahee is out I do think he will see some significant action just because he is the better than Ball and Hillman can't be relied on in passing situations. Hillman has the most upside if Mcgahee misses time but Moreno will see work.
 
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I personally think that if he is healthy and McGahee is not, Moreno will get some ppr points. Because of that, he could be worth a desperation bye week and half of my team is injured play. He still has quickness after the injury and looked the best he did all season a week ago and ton more confident. I've thought about adding him, but I'm not to the point of desperation yet. Seriously thinking about dropping Blount for him, though.

 
I think it is possible. Moreno has produced in ppr leagues quite well in the past so I think the potential is there. But after looking at how much things have changed in Denver the past few years, I think he has been, like Thomas Jones and Ced Ben, a guy that just found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. It might take a change of venue for him to suceed but I think we have seen the ability before. He actually is very good when used in a screen game and if he found himself in a zone blocking run screen, I think he could be a dynamo. If he found himself with the Lions, just as example, as was used in a sproles-like role, I think he could be very valuable in PPR leagues.

So, yes, I think he can be relevant again. But he's going to have to catch a break. I have always thought of him as being a guy that needs repetition to get the most of him because he's a guy that will run 8 times for 14 yards but then break some. So if he is ever given a job to get touches, he has ended up with good stats (go back and look at him when he first came in and look at the touches/results). But, in Denver, as a guy that gets 7-9 touches a game, total, its hard for him to be much of a factor.

 
knowshon is done with Denver unfortunately. Hes behind Mcgahee, isnt as good as ball (right now) and doesnt have the upside of hillman.

he can play though, so i wouldnt be shocked to see him go to a team like the jets in the offseason (hes from jersey).

he can play though...

 
He might be on waivers in some leagues. I can't see spending a lot on him, but I've always felt like long shot rookies (NFL 4th+ and fantasy 3rd+ rounders), were over-valued compared to underperforming early picks from 1-3 years prior. I've had some pretty good success targetting underperforming high round pick players, particularly late in startups.

IE: If you've got room, he's a better stash than guys like Draughn in KC.

 
Bumping this given the McGahee injury and current situation in Denver. Fox mentioned in a Denver Post article that Moreno had looked good in practice recently. Other threads/posts have referenced beat writers in Denver saying Moreno may see the McGahee role.

To me, it would make the most sense to leave Hillman in his COP role and allow Ball to continue to do what he does as well, and give your former first rounder an opportunity, especially a guy who started last year really well before his injury. He's a year removed from that ACL tear now, which we know for normal athletes (IE not ADP) is somewhat of a litmus test time frame.

Some reports said he looked good in the preseason, and if we're skeptical Hillman can produce between the tackles (which, I am, and I don't think I'm alone), wouldn't Moreno be worth a speculative add? Surely he's better than Ball?

Could be similar to Dwyer in Pittsburgh - inactive due to roles, but when the starter goes down, assumes an early-down role. Could surprise...

I'd be interested in the thoughts from others... EBF's posting of the parallels to Benson, Thomas Jones, etc. further piques my interest.

 
(Rotoworld)According to ESPN's Bill Williamson, Denver "clearly doesn't trust" Knowshon Moreno.Analysis: Moreno was the Broncos' No. 12 overall pick in 2009, but he's fallen out of favor. He hasn't played since Week 2 and has totaled eight carries on the season. With Willis McGahee (knee) down, Ronnie Hillman is expected to start and cede power-running duties to Lance Ball. Moreno's role figures to expand, but he's still just the No. 3 back until further notice.(Article Link)
 
(Rotoworld)According to ESPN's Bill Williamson, Denver "clearly doesn't trust" Knowshon Moreno.Analysis: Moreno was the Broncos' No. 12 overall pick in 2009, but he's fallen out of favor. He hasn't played since Week 2 and has totaled eight carries on the season. With Willis McGahee (knee) down, Ronnie Hillman is expected to start and cede power-running duties to Lance Ball. Moreno's role figures to expand, but he's still just the No. 3 back until further notice.(Article Link)
Way to put a lot of thought into your response. I'd hope most readers of this forum can do more that post the obviously-biased reporting from Rotoworld. (Before someone tees off - obviously biased in the grand scope of their blurbs - they clearly have favorites at RW that they continually pump, and guys they continually talk down - we all know this. I was not suggesting any particular bias in this instance)I realize Williamson's take. Denver post and others have supplied different views on the situation.
 
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Bottom line is that he has a better chance to play than he did when McGahee was healthy. They might not be high on him, but they wouldn't keep him on the roster if they didn't think he had some kind of value.

 
Bottom line is that he has a better chance to play than he did when McGahee was healthy. They might not be high on him, but they wouldn't keep him on the roster if they didn't think he had some kind of value.
EBF - your opinion is obviousy valued around here as you've been at this a while. Your posts at the origination of this thread suggest you believe in Moreno to some extent. You still feel that way?Also would be interested in how some other regulars (from the dynasty perspective at least) feel about him - ConceptCoop, SSOG, etc.
 
EBF - your opinion is obviousy valued around here as you've been at this a while. Your posts at the origination of this thread suggest you believe in Moreno to some extent. You still feel that way?
I'm not that high on the guy. He's an average physical talent who was overdrafted by the Broncos in the first place.But he doesn't have to be the best back in the NFL to have value. He just has to be the best back on his team. I think it's definitely possible that he's better than Hillman and Ball. His rookie year wasn't THAT bad and he actually had a pretty good season in 2010 before falling off the map. I've seen guys like Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch who had similar profiles resurrect their careers after being discarded. I wouldn't say it's likely that Moreno will do the same, but it's not impossible either. When Lynch was pushed out of Buffalo by Fred Jackson he was labeled an "average" back or worse. When Jones and Benson were struggling through similar situations to the one Moreno is in now, everyone called them busts and wrote them off. History repeats itself. Maybe not with Moreno, but it will happen again and I don't want to be asleep at the wheel when it does.
 
For reference, here is how Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson starter their careers:

Thomas Jones

2000 - 112 carries, 373 yards, 3.3 YPC

2001 - 112 carries, 380 yards, 3.4 YPC

2002 - 138 carries, 511 yards, 3.7 YPC

2003 - 137 carries, 627 yards, 4.6 YPC

2004 - 240 carries, 948 yards, 4.0 YPC

2005-2009 - five straight 1000+ yard rushing seasons

Cedric Benson

2005 - 67 carries, 272 yards, 4.1 YPC

2006 - 157 carries, 647 yards, 4.1 YPC

2007 - 196 carries, 674 yards, 3.4 YPC

2008 - 214 carries, 747 yards, 3.5 YPC

2009-2011 - three straight 1000+ yard rushing seasons

I think people sometimes forget how awful some players were before they hit their stride. I know that both of these guys were written off as complete busts at one point in their careers. Maybe a guy like Moreno or Beanie Wells (who I think is crap) might follow suit.
I hate writing RBs off, but given your example, here is the trend...Jones and Benson increased their carries each year; Moreno has gone backwards. Not sure exactly what you can take from that, but the first two were due to competition (Pittman and Jones (for Benson), while the staff in Denver is making no effort to at least have him be part of the timeshare. He'll get another opportunity with another team based on his pedigree, rookie season and management change in Denver, but he has to attack it like a practice squad player, not a jaded cast-off.
 
I guess you could say that he's keeping his legs fresh, but he's going to have to latch on another team without much RB talent if he's ever going to have any value. Pretty sure he's still got two years left on his deal.

 
Tweet from F&L regarding Moreno:

Nothing would surprise me in the #Broncos backfield over the next month. They kept Moreno on the roster for this exact scenario. Just my .02
Sigmund Bloom responded with:
@cecillammey said he seemed different, more humble and focused when he talked to him yesterday
While Lammey is still saying it's a committee with Hillman and Ball (Ball getting GL carries, and Hillman with the larger share), we should all be watching Moreno IMO.
 
And then there's this article.

Interesting quotes:

"I guess the only good thing I can look at from when I wasn't playing is not getting banged up, getting the knee back to healing and getting back. So now I feel real good," Moreno said.
"Might be Knowshon, might be Lance, might be Jeremiah (Johnson, on the practice squad)," said Hillman. "We'll just see how it goes."
 
And then there's this article.

Interesting quotes:

"I guess the only good thing I can look at from when I wasn't playing is not getting banged up, getting the knee back to healing and getting back. So now I feel real good," Moreno said.
"Might be Knowshon, might be Lance, might be Jeremiah (Johnson, on the practice squad)," said Hillman. "We'll just see how it goes."
I still think Moreno emerges from the pile here. He is the guy I would start after everything I've seen of all these guys. (with some Hillman mixed in COP).
 
Practice this week should offer some insight. Hard to believe Moreno will go from inactive to starter, but if he preforms who knows. They are playing KC this week so we might not get a true answer until later.

 
This thread panicked me enough as owner to put in claims for Moreno in all the leagues where I already had Hillman stashed on Lammey's rec.

 
I still think Hillman is the guy to own. If it turns out he isn't, then I'd say this backfield is one to avoid as all 3 backs will be part of a RBBC that will render all runners useless.

 
'JFS171 said:
'finito said:
(Rotoworld)According to ESPN's Bill Williamson, Denver "clearly doesn't trust" Knowshon Moreno.Analysis: Moreno was the Broncos' No. 12 overall pick in 2009, but he's fallen out of favor. He hasn't played since Week 2 and has totaled eight carries on the season. With Willis McGahee (knee) down, Ronnie Hillman is expected to start and cede power-running duties to Lance Ball. Moreno's role figures to expand, but he's still just the No. 3 back until further notice.(Article Link)
Way to put a lot of thought into your response. I'd hope most readers of this forum can do more that post the obviously-biased reporting from Rotoworld. (Before someone tees off - obviously biased in the grand scope of their blurbs - they clearly have favorites at RW that they continually pump, and guys they continually talk down - we all know this. I was not suggesting any particular bias in this instance)I realize Williamson's take. Denver post and others have supplied different views on the situation.
Dude, wtf is wrong with you? I put it on here because I thought it was relevant to the topic and I didn't have time to comment because I was heading out to work. So really, you're gonna run in with some sarcastic response? Suck it. As for what I think, if I had a deep roster I may stash him as a wait and see, but wouldn't have high expectations. In dynasty, I'd think about nabbing him and seeing if he can audition for a bigger role somewhere else.
 
When has Fox ever trusted a rookie back?
When he decided to make Hillman the backup to McGahee. Around week 3.
I don't think he's ever had a problem with rookies playing back up...
The point is, he carried the ball behind Willis. No reason to think he won't get first crack and being the lead back. Of course I don't think anyone expects Hillman to carry the load the way McGahee did, but a 60/40 split will make Hillman the back to own here. That should be good enough for about 12-15 touches.
 
When has Fox ever trusted a rookie back?
When he decided to make Hillman the backup to McGahee. Around week 3.
I don't think he's ever had a problem with rookies playing back up...
The point is, he carried the ball behind Willis. No reason to think he won't get first crack and being the lead back. Of course I don't think anyone expects Hillman to carry the load the way McGahee did, but a 60/40 split will make Hillman the back to own here. That should be good enough for about 12-15 touches.
I understand your point and it's a valid one. I'm just pointing out that there actually is a reason to think he won't get first crack or get enough carries. Whether you want to believe it's a minor reason or a big reason is up to you. I have no idea.
 
'JFS171 said:
'finito said:
(Rotoworld)According to ESPN's Bill Williamson, Denver "clearly doesn't trust" Knowshon Moreno.Analysis: Moreno was the Broncos' No. 12 overall pick in 2009, but he's fallen out of favor. He hasn't played since Week 2 and has totaled eight carries on the season. With Willis McGahee (knee) down, Ronnie Hillman is expected to start and cede power-running duties to Lance Ball. Moreno's role figures to expand, but he's still just the No. 3 back until further notice.(Article Link)
Way to put a lot of thought into your response. I'd hope most readers of this forum can do more that post the obviously-biased reporting from Rotoworld. (Before someone tees off - obviously biased in the grand scope of their blurbs - they clearly have favorites at RW that they continually pump, and guys they continually talk down - we all know this. I was not suggesting any particular bias in this instance)I realize Williamson's take. Denver post and others have supplied different views on the situation.
Dude, wtf is wrong with you? I put it on here because I thought it was relevant to the topic and I didn't have time to comment because I was heading out to work. So really, you're gonna run in with some sarcastic response? Suck it. As for what I think, if I had a deep roster I may stash him as a wait and see, but wouldn't have high expectations. In dynasty, I'd think about nabbing him and seeing if he can audition for a bigger role somewhere else.
Sorry - I'm sure you've seen, just like I have, some guys just throw up a Rotoworld quote and disappear. Some use it to be dismissive of any idea contrary to RW. Misunderstood your intentions.
 
Got Moreno for a $1 waiver bid.

Saved the cash for later for a more desirable back than Hillman. He's getting first shot. I just see him being ineffective between the tackles.

 
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'JFS171 said:
'finito said:
(Rotoworld)According to ESPN's Bill Williamson, Denver "clearly doesn't trust" Knowshon Moreno.Analysis: Moreno was the Broncos' No. 12 overall pick in 2009, but he's fallen out of favor. He hasn't played since Week 2 and has totaled eight carries on the season. With Willis McGahee (knee) down, Ronnie Hillman is expected to start and cede power-running duties to Lance Ball. Moreno's role figures to expand, but he's still just the No. 3 back until further notice.(Article Link)
Way to put a lot of thought into your response. I'd hope most readers of this forum can do more that post the obviously-biased reporting from Rotoworld. (Before someone tees off - obviously biased in the grand scope of their blurbs - they clearly have favorites at RW that they continually pump, and guys they continually talk down - we all know this. I was not suggesting any particular bias in this instance)I realize Williamson's take. Denver post and others have supplied different views on the situation.
Dude, wtf is wrong with you? I put it on here because I thought it was relevant to the topic and I didn't have time to comment because I was heading out to work. So really, you're gonna run in with some sarcastic response? Suck it. As for what I think, if I had a deep roster I may stash him as a wait and see, but wouldn't have high expectations. In dynasty, I'd think about nabbing him and seeing if he can audition for a bigger role somewhere else.
Sorry - I'm sure you've seen, just like I have, some guys just throw up a Rotoworld quote and disappear. Some use it to be dismissive of any idea contrary to RW. Misunderstood your intentions.
Ah, all good then. I honestly don't have anything against Moreno - he *could* turn things around, and at the very least he's proved to be dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver. We'll find out soon enough if he's gonna get a shot, what he does with it will be up to him.
 
100+ total yards. Pretty good YPC. Not a bad day.

Granted, the Chiefs are awful, but this was a step in the right direction for NoShow.

 
100+ total yards. Pretty good YPC. Not a bad day.Granted, the Chiefs are awful, but this was a step in the right direction for NoShow.
Yep - more telling to me the disparity in carries between Moreno and Hillman/Ball.If Manning trusts him, and evidently he does, Moreno could have a nice late-season run here. Could even put himself in position to lead the backfield next year.Someone elsewhere mentioned Addai being an average talent NFL wise, but continuing to produce in FF due to the Manning-led offense and not having any glaring weakness. Seems pretty equivalent to Knowshon to me.And, given what we've seen from other first round RBs that floundered a bit to start their career (the OP points this out) what's to say Knowshon can't get his career back on track? Best situation he's ever been in now with Manning, and this guy at Georgia was a stud.
 
http://broncotalk.net/2012/11/42692/broncos-blog/broncos-moreno-prepared-to-step-up-in-denver/“Next week, it’ll be more than likely Knowshon instead of Willis,” Coach John Fox said on Monday. ”He’s looked, actually over the last couple of weeks, very good.”
this post was all i need to snag knowshow in a few leagues.
I had not even read this thread prior to yesterday's game but it clearly leaned on moreno over hillman. WHOOPS!!Good find munygon2.
 
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http://broncotalk.net/2012/11/42692/broncos-blog/broncos-moreno-prepared-to-step-up-in-denver/“Next week, it’ll be more than likely Knowshon instead of Willis,” Coach John Fox said on Monday. ”He’s looked, actually over the last couple of weeks, very good.”
this post was all i need to snag knowshow in a few leagues.
Agreed. Ended up taking a flier on him just in case (given the fact that he's in a high-powered offense).
 
This guy has been money for my teams down the stretch. Owes it all to McGahee's injury, but now I'm wondering what kind of outlook he has for 2013.

 
This guy has been money for my teams down the stretch. Owes it all to McGahee's injury, but now I'm wondering what kind of outlook he has for 2013.
Yes, he has. But just like I am sure a lot of people just couldn't compel themselves to start him over other guys they may have had (Matthews, Charles, LeShoure), it will be HARD for people to get on a hype-train with him next year unless the Broncos basically broadcast propoganda that he is going to be thier guy. ANY (and I mean ANY) noise that comes out that says it will be open competition or if they even draft as much as a 4th round RB next year, and people will be hyping Hillman or the rookie.People just don't want to buy into Moreno..so many people been burned on this guy. But it does seem like whenever he is actually the guy there, he produces. He idd the same thing about 2-3 years ago for one of my teams down the stretch..put up like 16-24 for 3 straight weeks right when I hit the playoffs. On the surface, he seems IDEAL for a Manning-led offense. But like I said, it will be hard for people to embrace this.
 
I'm rather intrigued actually - I didn't get to see the game yesterday, but the stats were quite impressive. Granted they came against a depleted BAL run D, but Moreno's putting himself back on the map in a big way down the stretch.

Supposedly he even hurdled a nearly upright Ed Reed on one play, which tells me he's definitely back to full health.

I'd like to see the Broncos invest in some O-line help this offseason, which would only benefit Moreno IMO. As ConceptCoop mentioned in the dynasty thread, Broncos have been running the ball more lately and Moreno is still producing, even when the defenses know it's coming.

With his ability to pass block and be a passing game option as well, he's pretty well suited for that offense. I'm interested to see him the rest of the way...

Wouldn't be shocked if a strong post-season run put him in the driver's seat for this job next year with Hillman in the COP role and McGahee asking for his release to seek a job elsewhere.

 
I'm rather intrigued actually - I didn't get to see the game yesterday, but the stats were quite impressive. Granted they came against a depleted BAL run D, but Moreno's putting himself back on the map in a big way down the stretch.

Supposedly he even hurdled a nearly upright Ed Reed on one play, which tells me he's definitely back to full health.

I'd like to see the Broncos invest in some O-line help this offseason, which would only benefit Moreno IMO. As ConceptCoop mentioned in the dynasty thread, Broncos have been running the ball more lately and Moreno is still producing, even when the defenses know it's coming.

With his ability to pass block and be a passing game option as well, he's pretty well suited for that offense. I'm interested to see him the rest of the way...

Wouldn't be shocked if a strong post-season run put him in the driver's seat for this job next year with Hillman in the COP role and McGahee asking for his release to seek a job elsewhere.
Saw that as it happened and, yeah, pretty impressive. Reed was slightly ducked down but otherwise was actually coming in high and that leg went over him like a hurdler.
 

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