Isn't there some stat that if a QB isn't in the top 10 in his first two years starting, it's highly unlikely he ever cracks that barrier?
This seems impossible with the current landscape of the NFL. When you have perennial studs like Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, and throw in newcomers like RGIII, Luck, Kaep, Wilson, there are not a lot of spots left in the top 10. Where do you put guys like Cam, Ryan, Stafford, etc.??
I don't even know if I just made it up to be quite honest. I was sure that I had heard it from someone though. So, I decided to look it up. I treated any season where a QB had 8 more appearances as a started season, though I made a note if the QB didn't play 13 or more games. In the past 10 years, 37 quarterbacks have had one or more top ten finishes.Of those 37 quarterbacks, 16 of them cracked the top-ten in their first year as a starter. (Rodgers, Newton, RG3, P. Manning, Wilson, Luck, Rivers, Favre, Warner, Cassel, Anderson, Bulger, Kitna, Culpepper, Green, Brooks)Of the 21 remaining quarterbacks, 13 had their first top-ten appearance in their second season as a starter. (Brady, Romo, Stafford, E. Manning, Vick, Freeman, Cutler, McNabb, Palmer, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Plummer, McNair)That leaves 8 of 37 that recorded a top-ten finish after their first two years as a starter. Five QB's broke through in their third year, but three of the five had not managed to play full seasons during their first two starting seasons in the league.Drew Brees broke the top-ten in his third year as a starter, but he only played 11 games during his second year in the league. He's probably the biggest "miss" of this theory, because he didn't give much indication that he would blossom into his perennial top-3 status. Heck, he was benched for Flutie.Matt Ryan broke into the top-ten in his third year as a starter. He is probably the second biggest "miss" of this theory, but even with his development, his career high finish is seventh. He has recorded three straight top-ten finishes, but hasn't finished top-six yet, so he's still a below average starter in a 12-team league.Marc Sanchez recorded his one top-ten finish in his third season, placing as tenth best quarterback for the year. His fourth season was no where near as successful. He finished with 28 more points than #11 Michael Vick, but Vick was ahead of Sanchez on a PPG basis.Matt Schaub cracked the top-ten in his third season, with a fifth place finish, but his first two seasons were only 11 games each and he posted decent, if not overly impressive PPG averages.Matt Hasselbeck made the top-ten in his third year after two pedestrian finishes, but he only started 12 games and 10 games in his first two years. In his first 16 game season, he had a third place finish.The remaining three quarterbacks that broke into the top 10 after their third season are Ben Roethlisberger, Kerry Collins and Chad Pennington.Roethlisberger broke through in his fourth season with a fourth place finish and has one other top ten finish on his resume. Some of that could be attributed to getting dinged (he only has one 16-game season to his credit), but with the exception of 2007, Big Ben has likely never won someone their fantasy league.Kerry Collins had his first top-ten season in 2000, his sixth season in the league and has two top-ten finishes to his credit (8th and 9th). His first top-ten finish was the first time he managed to start 16 games in a season.Chad Pennington had his one and only top ten finish (10th) in 2008 in his ninth season in the league. 2008 was also only the second season Pennington managed to get through a full season as well.All three of these guys have some sort of injury problems that limited their ability to start a full season, but who knows if that can be applied to quarterbacks moving forward.2012:1) Brees: (Year 1=18th, Year 2=26th (only 11 games), Year 3=8th)2) Rodgers: (Year 1=3rd, Year 2=1st)3) Brady: (Year 1=19th, Year 2=6th)4) Newton: (Year 1=5th, Year 2=4th)5) RG3: (Year 1=5th)6) P. Manning: (Year 1=9th, Year 2=4th)7) Ryan: (Year 1=15th, Year 2=19th, Year 3=8th)8) Romo: (Year 1=17th, Year 2=2nd)9) Wilson: (Year 1=9th)10) Luck: (Year 1=10th)2011: (Just QBs not listed already)4) Stafford: (Year 1=26th (10 games), Year 2=4th)6) E. Manning: (Year 1=36th, Year 2=5th)9) Rivers: (Year 1=8th, Year 2=15th)10 Sanchez: (Year 1=25th, Year 2-19th, Year 3=10th)2010: (Just QBs not listed already)3) Vick: (Year 1=35th (8 games), Year 2=3rd)7) Freeman: (Year 1=27th, Year 2=7th)10) Schaub: (Year 1=23rd (11 games), Year 2=21st (11 games), Year 3=5th)2009: (Just QBs not listed already)3) Favre: (Year 1=7th, Year 2=7th)9) Roethlisberger (Year 1= 20th, Year 2=17th, Year 3=15th, Year 4=4th)2008: (You know the drill)4) Warner: (Year 1=1st, Year 2=14th (11 games), Year 3=1st)5) Cutler: (Year 1=11th, Year 2=5th)7) McNabb: (Year 1=37th, Year 2=5th)8) Cassel: (Year 1=8th, Year 2=21st)10) Pennington (Not listing the all, 5th season playing 10 games or more)2007:6) Anderson: (Year 1=6th, Year 2=31st)7) Hasselbeck: (Year 1=30th, Year 20=20th, Year 3=3rd)9) Palmer: (Year 1=23rd, Year 2=1st)2006:4) Bulger: (Year 1=9th, Year 2=11th)6) Kitna: (Year 1=8th, year 2=18th)2005:7) Bledsoe: (Year 1=15th, Year 2=4th)8) Delhomme: (Year 1=15th, Year 2=6th)9) Collins: (Had two top 10 finishes, first one was in his fifth year)10) Plummer: (Year 1=21st, Year 2=8th)2004:2) Culpepper: (Year 1=1st, Year 2=15th)4) Green: (Year 1=7th, Year 2=17th)10) Brooks: (Year1 1=8th, Year 2=5th)2003:6) McNair: (Year 1=32nd, Year 2=6th)