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yankdog

Tannehill's upside

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Posted (edited)

He is a very good QB and the doubters in this thread are going to continue to look foolish.

Can't believe that seeing the previously written off Parker and Gase ball out free of Gase isn't enough to convince people what the problem was in Miami

They were an awful, dysfunctional organization: he had Joe Philbin, the Incognito-Martin incident, the Landry contract issue, Parker not doing s***, Leonte Carroo busting, big free agent acquisition Jordan Cameron also busting and Gase hating Kenyan Drake--the only constant through it all being horrendous OL play. And still there were glimpses of his potential in Miami

Then he comes to Tennessee with a talented team and quality coaching/organization but a really sub par group of skill position players (overall) and posts a TOP 5 QB season, and unleashes Derrick Henry and AJ Brown

Yes, he was helped by Henry, but don't act like Henry was bowling over the Ravens and Pats with that bum Marcus Mariota at QB

 

With Jurrell Casey gone and Dean Pees retired, I expect a little regression from the Titans defense and thus more reliance on Tannehill, and he is going to light it up just like he did last year--more than making up for his efficiency likely falling a bit.

 

For the whole AFC championship until maybe mid to late 4th quarter I was nervous because of how methodically the Titans were able to operate. Their downfall IMO was not trusting him when it was clear our defense was selling out to stop Henry (and succeeding)

 

Having seen them both as a Chiefs fan: he is clearly a better QB than Jimmy G (despite having a worse weapons and not having Kyle Shanahan), and gets much more flak for his contract only because he had the misfortune of being selected to play with Joe Philbin and Adam Gase on the Dolphins instead of Bill Bellichick and Kyle Shanahan on the Patriots and 49ers

Always thought the Titans were a QB away from being legit in the Mariota years (yes I know Mariota fluked his way to beating us one time) and last year confirmed it

In redraft keep up the doubt and let me get him as my QB2 to pair with a guy like Daniel Jones

In dynasty his outlook is even better in a year when the Titans spend 1st or 2nd round capital to get a WR2 opposite AJB with Davis likely leaving

 

Well worth his contract

Edited by KChusker

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Observations from Friday's Titans Practice

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Tannehill was sharp. In an early team period, he completed passes to Henry, tight end Anthony Firkser, and receiver Adam Humphries. In a later team period, he connected with Brown on a sideline pass. He threw a beauty of a screen pass to tight end Jonnu Smith. Tannehill's best pass was a bullet to Brown, in between defenders Kevin Byard and Rashaan Evans.

 

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How Much Will Ryan Tannehill Regress?

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...Tannehill completed a league-leading 75% of his intermediate passes outside of the red zone last season and was one on three quarterbacks to complete over 70% of such passes.

That 75% mark is the highest of any quarterback with at least 30 intermediate attempts since 2015. Only Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins have multiple seasons with at least a 70% completion rate on those throws. Quarterbacks like Brees and, yes, Cousins have been known as good intermediate passers throughout their careers. The issue with Tannehill repeating this success is that he never completed more than 57% of his passes with the Miami Dolphins, at least since 2015. Tannehill once came close to his 2019 on-target rate in 2016 but his completion rate and yards per attempt were still in-line with what he had done during the other years of his career...

 

Go to the link for graphs/charts and the rest.

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Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott destined to join $40 million club; the truth about Russell Wilson

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Don't be surprised if Ryan Tannehill continues to play like a top-five QB. Second-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has designed an efficient smashmouth offense with a complementary passing game that creates big plays for an accurate downfield passer with anticipation, touch and timing. Most importantly, Smith tapped into an element of the passing game that unlocked Tannehill's superpowers: play-action.

The Titans' scheme and personnel creates the perfect storm for Tannehill as a passer. Given the team's physical offensive line and the presence of a gargantuan running back coming off his first NFL rushing title, any threat of run action is an irresistible temptation for linebackers and safeties assigned to clog running lanes within the tackle-to-tackle box. In addition, the Titans' big-bodied pass catchers on the perimeter excel at catching the ball between the numbers, particularly on seams, skinny posts, digs and crossing routes. With opponents forced to defend the Titans with eight-man boxes from single-high looks, the middle of the field opens up like a rural highway whenever No. 17 turns his back and fakes a handoff to Derrick Henry.

As a result, Tannehill led the NFL in completion percentage (77.1), yards per pass attempt (13.7) and passer rating (144.5) on play-action passes in 2019. Wide receiver A.J. Brown led the league in receiving yards (646) and yards after catch (342) on play-action targets, while tight end Jonnu Smith (13.6 yards after catch on play-action targets) also thrived in the bluff-and-throw approach.

Given a full season to direct an offense that showcases the best parts of his game, Tannehill should continue to play at a very high level.

 

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THill has a good chance to hit the Top12 this week if he has a solid outing. How many QBs that were actually started had terrific games? Dak was a disappointment, Watson was subpar, Brady was a bust, Baker terrible, Rivers, Wentz was avg, he has a chance to become a Top10 if he can do something like 250-300 total yds and 2-3 TDs every other week, the match up this week is not easy but he has weapons around him and a solid OL. 

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33 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

THill has a good chance to hit the Top12 this week if he has a solid outing. How many QBs that were actually started had terrific games? Dak was a disappointment, Watson was subpar, Brady was a bust, Baker terrible, Rivers, Wentz was avg, he has a chance to become a Top10 if he can do something like 250-300 total yds and 2-3 TDs every other week, the match up this week is not easy but he has weapons around him and a solid OL. 

Mayfield and Rivers were well outside the top-12 consensus rankings this week (link).

The average fantasy score of the top-12 ranked quarterbacks (i.e., "QBs that were actually started") was 21.7.

The fantasy score of the #12 quarterback so far this week (Brady) was 20.5.

I don't expect Tannehill to eclipse either number tonight.

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I'm considering the Titans season win total of 8 1/2, UNDER.

Tanneyhill is a big cog in that wheel.  Is this a mistake?  If this thread is for owners, then I know the answer I guess.  Anyway, thoughts?

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17 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

I'm considering the Titans season win total of 8 1/2, UNDER.

Tanneyhill is a big cog in that wheel.  Is this a mistake?  If this thread is for owners, then I know the answer I guess.  Anyway, thoughts?

He got the Titans 8 wins in 10 starts last year. 

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2 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

THill has a good chance to hit the Top12 this week if he has a solid outing. How many QBs that were actually started had terrific games? Dak was a disappointment, Watson was subpar, Brady was a bust, Baker terrible, Rivers, Wentz was avg, he has a chance to become a Top10 if he can do something like 250-300 total yds and 2-3 TDs every other week, the match up this week is not easy but he has weapons around him and a solid OL. 

Tyreek Hill is currently WR22 in PPR scoring.  If you're talking about the Titans QB, please come up with a more apt abbreviation.

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Ryan Tannehill completed 29-of-43 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns in the Titans' 16-14, Week 1 win over the Broncos.

Tannehill never attempted 40 passes in any start last season, but the Titans ran a whopping 78 plays in this one, and Tannehill was able to guide a game-winning drive that ended in a short Stephen Gostkowski field goal after missing three kicks prior to that one. Tannehill added 14 rushing yards. His two touchdown passes went to TEs Jonnu Smith and MyCole Pruitt, both of the one-yard variety, while Corey Davis and A.J. Brown each saw a team-high eight targets. Tannehill will be a back-end QB1 for Week 2 against the Jaguars after he went 14-of-18 for 259 yards and two touchdowns with 7-40-2 rushing in one start against them last season.

Sep 15, 2020, 2:12 AM ET

 

 

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Ryan Tannehill completed 18-of-24 passes for 239 yards and four touchdowns in the Titans' Week 2 win over Jacksonville.

The Titans called fewer pass plays with A.J. Brown sidelined, but Tannehill was effective in the red-zone. All four of his touchdowns came there, and Tannehill led Tennessee to a game-winning field goal with under two minutes. The Titans went run heavy after throwing 43 times last week. Tannehill spread it out when he threw, with Adam Humphries (6) out-targeting Jonnu Smith (5) and Corey Davis (5). Tennessee is undefeated with wins over Denver and the Jaguars the first two weeks. Tannehill will take a 6:0 TD/INT ratio into a Week 3 matchup with the Vikings.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Can someone explain to me why EVERY FF analyst is down on Tanehill this week?  He's facing the Vikings who have given up a ton to WRs, and he has nine consecutive multi-touchdown games.  I've seen him ranked:

13

10

19

17

23

25

24

what gives?

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2 hours ago, -jb- said:

Can someone explain to me why EVERY FF analyst is down on Tanehill this week?  He's facing the Vikings who have given up a ton to WRs, and he has nine consecutive multi-touchdown games.  I've seen him ranked:

13

10

19

17

23

25

24

what gives?

His name is Ryan Tannehill.

That's literally it

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The market hasnt adjusted yet, which is odd. He's been doing this for a little while now.

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Ryan Tannehill completed 23-of-37 passes for 321 scoreless yards and one interception in the Titans' 31-30, Week 3 win over the Vikings.

He rushed for times for nine yards as a runner and also caught one of his own passes that was batted at the line. It was Tannehill's first 300-yard game of the season but also his first without any touchdowns. The Titans settled for six Stephen Gostkowski field goals and a pair of Derrick Henry rushing scores to provide the offense. Tannehill has been amazing since joining the Titans, but he won't be a recommended streamer next week against the Steelers' elite defense.

Sep 27, 2020, 4:57 PM ET

 

 

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Ryan Tannehill completed 21-of-28 passes for 195 yards and three touchdowns in the Titans' Week 5 win over the Bills.

The Titans played a near flawless game without practicing much in two weeks. Tannehill welcomed A.J. Brown back to the lineup with non-stop first downs in the first half and a perfectly-thrown touchdown strike in the corner of the end zone. Tannehill also found Jonnu Smith twice for scores and ran one in himself, although he botched his touchdown celebration. It was an impressive team victory to stay undefeated against an AFC Championship contender. Tannehill's pass attempts won't compete with other fantasy QB2s, but he's been one of the most efficient passers for 12 months. The Titans will stay at home on a short week against the Texans in Week 6.

Oct 13, 2020, 9:44 PM ET

 

 

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Tanny has generated some of the least buzz on this board, but all he has done is gone out and been just as efficient as he was last year, which all the experts said he could not be.

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19 minutes ago, Truebluey said:

Tanny has generated some of the least buzz on this board, but all he has done is gone out and been just as efficient as he was last year, which all the experts said he could not be.

Amazing what players seem to be able to accomplish when outside of Gase's influence. 

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1 hour ago, Truebluey said:

Tanny has generated some of the least buzz on this board, but all he has done is gone out and been just as efficient as he was last year, which all the experts said he could not be.

Yep.  I have him in a couple leagues and I think he may be my starter moving forward.  

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9 hours ago, Truebluey said:

Tanny has generated some of the least buzz on this board, but all he has done is gone out and been just as efficient as he was last year, which all the experts said he could not be.

And he's yet to have a full complement of receivers this year, last night was down Davis & Humphries.

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Week 6 fantasy football metrics notebook: It's past time to respect Ryan Tannehill, Titans passing game

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1 - It’s way past time to respect the Titans passing game

Has anyone else had their internal clock completely thrown off from a Tuesday night football game? That’s definitely happening over here. The only thing normal about the affair was that, as it was an island game, we’ll be tempted to overreact to what we saw and blanket label a team/unit/player’s season-long to-date performance based just on that viewing.

Some would instantly think to turn the glowering eye on Josh Allen. They’re ready to declare the bulk of his 2020 a fluke because he threw a couple of picks last night. Yet, last night was the outlier for Allen this season and, even then, he put multiple impressive throws and uncanny coolness under pressure on film Tuesday night.

The real story coming out of Tuesday night’s game should be the coming-out party for Tennessee’s passing offense. It’s strange that we need to have such an event, considering Ryan Tannehill led the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt (10.2) last year. However, his 160 total passing yards in the two nationally televised Titans playoff wins last year spun an unfortunate narrative that he’s just a bit player along for the ride.

While Derrick Henry is still the best player on the Titans offense, the 2020 season is showing Tannehill’s true value. 

On a night when Henry's meme-able and god-like stiff arm of Josh Norman stole the show, he totaled just 57 yards on 19 carries. The run game wasn’t the dominant force for Tennessee on offense despite Henry’s two scores. Rather quietly, it’s been that way all year.

With some transition and injury spurts on the offensive line, the team hasn’t enjoyed the same rushing success it did in 2019. In fact, the Titans rank 16th in rushing offense DVOA through five weeks but a stunning fifth in passing DVOA. Tannehill and the aerial attack have been the better unit to this point. 

Not much regression has hit his play as Tannehill once again ranks top-six in touchdown rate, QBR, and passer rating in 2020. According to SportRadar, he’s been on-target on 77.3 percent of his throws this year. Tannehill has been the same hyper-efficient master of the offense he was during his breakout year with Tennessee.

With Arthur Smith calling plays and a healthy A.J. Brown paired with the explosive Jonnu Smith at tight end, Tannehill has the infrastructure to keep this going. Those guys are legitimate stars. On a night that could have been the coming-out party of the reborn version of Josh Allen, it was Tannehill who wrestled the spotlight away. It’s time we accept this is what he is and pay him the respect he deserves.

 

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Ryan Tannehill completed 30-of-41 passes for 364 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in the Titans' 42-36, Week 6 overtime win over the Texans. 

A new season high, the 364 yards were the fifth most of Tannehill's resurgent career. Tannehill did toss just his second interception of the season. He also lost a fumble in his own red zone moments after LT Taylor Lewan departed with a knee issue. Fill-in Ty Sambrailo got beaten like a drum by J.J. Watt, and Tannehill got crunched on third down. Other than that, it felt like one big gain after another, including a pair of scores to A.J. Brown. Tannehill found backup TE Anthony Firkser for 8/113/1 after Jonnu Smith was forced out with an ankle injury. The Titans like to limit Tannehill's attempts, but he was more than capable of keeping up in shootout ball. After facing Romeo Crennel's swinging gate defense, Tannehill does have a much tougher Week 7 assignment in the Steelers.  

Oct 18, 2020, 4:33 PM ET

 

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I have Tanny and Brady, and have been sitting Tanny for the most part because of COVID doubts and Brady having solid match ups where I thought he'd need to throw.

At this point, I can no longer afford to sit Tanny, he looks like a must start.

I fear I've wasted his point production -- hope he keeps this up going forward and that he didn't get the majority of his fantasy points in the first Q of the season.

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors
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6 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I have Tanny and Brady, and have been sitting Tanny for the most part because of COVID doubts and Brady having solid match ups where I thought he'd need to throw.

At this point, I can no longer afford to sit Tanny, he looks like a must start.

I fear I've wasted his point production -- hope he keeps this up going forward and that he didn't get the majority of his fantasy points in the first Q of the season.

100% me too. I agonized over the decision between the two of them today, probably changing my lineup well over a dozen times. I settled on Brady because I assumed Green Bay was going to stomp them and he would have to throw to get back. Basically assumed it would be a catch-up game and he would stack stats. Wrong. Tannehill’s in my line up every week going forward.  

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Am I crazy for making a bid on him ?

I already have L.Jackson but I've offered a third round pick for him. The other owner already have D.Watson.

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19 minutes ago, Sir Psycho said:

Am I crazy for making a bid on him ?

I already have L.Jackson but I've offered a third round pick for him. The other owner already have D.Watson.

Making a bid?  Or making a trade?

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20 hours ago, Houston turmOiler said:

Looks like he just completed the easiest part of his schedule. Next 6 opponents are top 10 in limiting QB points in my league.

So you’re saying it’s time to trade him for a flex upgrade 

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20 hours ago, dkp993 said:

100% me too. I agonized over the decision between the two of them today, probably changing my lineup well over a dozen times. I settled on Brady because I assumed Green Bay was going to stomp them and he would have to throw to get back. Basically assumed it would be a catch-up game and he would stack stats. Wrong. Tannehill’s in my line up every week going forward.  

Lewan going down with a torn ACL may impact Tannehill and the time he has in the pocket too. 

I think Lewan is a bit of a blowhard and egotiset (heard enough of his podcast with Will Compton -- who is as grounded as much Lewan is not -- to make a call there) but his superb play on the left side of the line is elite and a consistent strength of the TEN O-line.

Maybe not, as Tannehill has punched above the weight his critics give him since his Dolphin days. 

But it's an added factor for sure.

What are you doing next week? Tannehill up against a surging PIT D, Brady against a LV D that has played well but is fallible.

Seems like another game leading me to start Brady, but that's right back to leaving potentially more points on the bench from Tanny.

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53 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Lewan going down with a torn ACL may impact Tannehill and the time he has in the pocket too. 

I think Lewan is a bit of a blowhard and egotiset (heard enough of his podcast with Will Compton -- who is as grounded as much Lewan is not -- to make a call there) but his superb play on the left side of the line is elite and a consistent strength of the TEN O-line.

Maybe not, as Tannehill has punched above the weight his critics give him since his Dolphin days. 

But it's an added factor for sure.

What are you doing next week? Tannehill up against a surging PIT D, Brady against a LV D that has played well but is fallible.

Seems like another game leading me to start Brady, but that's right back to leaving potentially more points on the bench from Tanny.

Great points and great questions. Honestly I don’t know. I feel out of sorts this year and my gut instinct which has served me so well in the past has me making all the wrong moves this year. I’ve played Brady in three weeks and sat him in three. The three weeks I’ve played him low teens points. Three weeks Ive sat him 20+ points. Can’t seem to get it right. Maybe I should take the George Costanza route and do the exact opposite of my instincts this year.  

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I'm guessing the OP ( @yankdog hasn't posted in 5 years) isn't coming back so I can't request a title change... :(

Edited by The Frankman

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Ryan Tannehill completed 18-of-30 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the Titans' 31-20, Week 8 loss to the Bengals. 

It was Tannehill's second worst start of the season, while he's now completed fewer than 20 passes in back-to-back losses. Tannehill was lucky to escape with only two picks, having a second undone by a Bengals neutral zone infraction. For score No. 1, A.J. Brown did all the work after the catch. For No. 2, Corey Davis made a sensational grab in the front right corner of the end zone. Despite the rough stretch, this has not had the feel of Tannehill getting "exposed" or whatever you might want to call it. That being said, Tannehill will have a difficult time snapping his mini slump in Week 9, where the Titans will be hosting the Bears' strong defense. He will be more of a QB2 than QB1 for that one. 

- Rotoworld

A lot of uncharacteristic forces by Tanny, stunned he forced that throw to AJ which resulted in a pick; Tanny never really forces anything and is so careful with the ball.

Edited by The Frankman

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Ryan Tannehill completed just 15-of-27 passes for 147 yards and one touchdown in the Titans' 34-17, Week 10 loss to the Colts.

Tannehill has attempted more than 30 passes in a game just three times this season. He looked like he was going to be in for a big game after taking the offense right down the field on the opening drive and hitting D'Onta Foreman for a five-yard touchdown to cap it off, but the Titans didn't do much of anything after that. The Colts are one of the better defenses in football, and many expected a down week for Tannehill. He'll be more of a back-end QB1/2 next week against the Ravens.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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