But every year, you see the mistake. Sankey over Odell Beckham, Ronnie Hillman over Alshon Jeffrey. Zac Stacy over keenan Allen. People equate "3rd best or next best" as "nearly as good as the other guys.
Or Le'Veon Bell over Cordarrelle Patterson, or LeSean McCoy over Hakeem Nicks. There are examples that go both ways and it's different every year. A lot of times those "next best" running backs end up being not only the best RBs of their class, but the best RBs in the entire dynasty landscape.
Most of the 2nd round RB sdrafted in recent years has been given a legit shot at the workhorse role for their team. Yeldon was drafted higher than any of them. The question is whether he'll take it and run with it like Lacy, Bell, and Hill or whether he'll fall flat like Gio and Ball.
Also, Sankey is a poor example as he was not "3rd best or next best". He was the first RB selected in the draft and had the highest RB ADP in rookie drafts. The 3rd best/next best guy was Jeremy Hill, who I think is doing pretty well right now
The difference in your examples are that Bell and Shady were already highly known guys with good grades who were already in the tier of the top guys. Yeldon is fairly universally already pegged at not on the same tier as the top two.
And then, when you take into account the high profile misses of RB (M. Ball, TRICH), its even worse because, back in the day, you might have to pay a pretty penny for Patterson but you had to sell children to come up to get TRICH and pay quite a lot of Ball. Also have to factor in injuries. After the first two years, it would have cost 2 Shadys to get Nicks in dyno. Injuries undid him, which, more times than not, is actually more detrimental to RBs than it ever is a WR. Nicks was kind of an unusual exception. A promising WR can tear a hammy, groin, ACL, whatever, and it seldom has long lasting impact to the dynasty value. A RB can crack a toe or medial tarsal and he's damaged goods all the way around.
There are certainly cases to support any stance in something like this but the overall thought on my point is people should be really leery when you go through 9 months to a year and you consistently see a guy in a certain tier (or don't know him at all) and then all of a sudden you start seeing him drafted a lot higher. That, to me (just my opinion), is a sign that people are reacting to other people's drafts and data and that the data they are reacting to is likely based on need or buying lottery tickets and isn't the true long-term perception of value that has been for a long period leading up to it.
