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*** TJ Yeldon (2015 Draft Eligible) Bandwagon ***

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I think i would rather have coleman or abdullah than yeldon. His draft slot overall was nice, but idk if i trust the team or the talent.

so jacksonville is never going to get better?

team is young, wait and see. to assume young players are going to stink when the coaching staff is fairly new and all the skill players are first or second year guys. They have no vet skill positions (other than the te) and this teams defense sure is crazy as it looks like it can be one of the better ones the way it is built. seahawks east as some have said before.

i know every rookie last year had to perform at elite levels in order to get any faith going into this year, but bortles, lee and robinson were rookies, can they get a little learning curve or do they all have to be randy moss and odb in their rookie years?

this will not be the same jags, they have a new oc too and all pretty new offensive players, i like the upside this team cant do much worse on offense part of that was needing a guy like yeldon.

Edited by VarsityBlues123

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I think i would rather have coleman or abdullah than yeldon. His draft slot overall was nice, but idk if i trust the team or the talent.

so jacksonville is never going to get better?

team is young, wait and see. to assume young players are going to stink when the coaching staff is fairly new and all the skill players are first or second year guys. They have no vet skill positions (other than the te) and this teams defense sure is crazy as it looks like it can be one of the better ones the way it is built. seahawks east as some have said before.

i know every rookie last year had to perform at elite levels in order to get any faith going into this year, but bortles, lee and robinson were rookies, can they get a little learning curve or do they all have to be randy moss and odb in their rookie years?

this will not be the same jags, they have a new oc too if im not mistaken?

I definitely never said that, and I understand that most rookies have some kind of learning curve. I'm just saying that a) they still have other backs on the roster than can fill roles, so who knows if Yeldon is truly the lead or a "workhorse" in any fashion b) I'm not sold on Yeldon's talent, really the primary issue c) A "growing" offense is still not a "good" offense and perhaps teams stack the box and let Bortles beat them

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I think i would rather have coleman or abdullah than yeldon. His draft slot overall was nice, but idk if i trust the team or the talent.

so jacksonville is never going to get better?

team is young, wait and see. to assume young players are going to stink when the coaching staff is fairly new and all the skill players are first or second year guys. They have no vet skill positions (other than the te) and this teams defense sure is crazy as it looks like it can be one of the better ones the way it is built. seahawks east as some have said before.

i know every rookie last year had to perform at elite levels in order to get any faith going into this year, but bortles, lee and robinson were rookies, can they get a little learning curve or do they all have to be randy moss and odb in their rookie years?

this will not be the same jags, they have a new oc too if im not mistaken?

I definitely never said that, and I understand that most rookies have some kind of learning curve. I'm just saying that a) they still have other backs on the roster than can fill roles, so who knows if Yeldon is truly the lead or a "workhorse" in any fashion b) I'm not sold on Yeldon's talent, really the primary issue c) A "growing" offense is still not a "good" offense and perhaps teams stack the box and let Bortles beat them

Caldwell seems to think so - https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/594286597962637312

@Jaguars
"We see him as a three-down back." - Caldwell on @T_Yeldon.
#JAXDraft15 Central: http://bit.ly/JAXDraft15

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I think i would rather have coleman or abdullah than yeldon. His draft slot overall was nice, but idk if i trust the team or the talent.

so jacksonville is never going to get better?

team is young, wait and see. to assume young players are going to stink when the coaching staff is fairly new and all the skill players are first or second year guys. They have no vet skill positions (other than the te) and this teams defense sure is crazy as it looks like it can be one of the better ones the way it is built. seahawks east as some have said before.

i know every rookie last year had to perform at elite levels in order to get any faith going into this year, but bortles, lee and robinson were rookies, can they get a little learning curve or do they all have to be randy moss and odb in their rookie years?

this will not be the same jags, they have a new oc too if im not mistaken?

I definitely never said that, and I understand that most rookies have some kind of learning curve. I'm just saying that a) they still have other backs on the roster than can fill roles, so who knows if Yeldon is truly the lead or a "workhorse" in any fashion b) I'm not sold on Yeldon's talent, really the primary issue c) A "growing" offense is still not a "good" offense and perhaps teams stack the box and let Bortles beat them

Caldwell seems to think so - https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/594286597962637312

@Jaguars
"We see him as a three-down back." - Caldwell on @T_Yeldon.
#JAXDraft15 Central: http://bit.ly/JAXDraft15

you posted before i could.

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I think i would rather have coleman or abdullah than yeldon. His draft slot overall was nice, but idk if i trust the team or the talent.

so jacksonville is never going to get better?

team is young, wait and see. to assume young players are going to stink when the coaching staff is fairly new and all the skill players are first or second year guys. They have no vet skill positions (other than the te) and this teams defense sure is crazy as it looks like it can be one of the better ones the way it is built. seahawks east as some have said before.

i know every rookie last year had to perform at elite levels in order to get any faith going into this year, but bortles, lee and robinson were rookies, can they get a little learning curve or do they all have to be randy moss and odb in their rookie years?

this will not be the same jags, they have a new oc too and all pretty new offensive players, i like the upside this team cant do much worse on offense part of that was needing a guy like yeldon.

I wasn't a huge fan of Yeldon as a prospect, but I wouldn't downgrade him due to his situation. I think JAX is forming a great young nucleus and is heading in the right direction. Yeldon's high draft spot (which wasn't even labled as a "reach" by any of the commentators) also tells me that I was perhaps wrong with my personal assessment of his talents. I'll generally stand by my analysis but will surely give some deference to the guys that get paid to do the job. I'd move Yeldon up now post draft.

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They also saw toby gerhart as a 3 down back. Im just sayin

Apples and oranges.

yeah that comparison is a desperate ploy.

The point is just to say that what a team thinks a player can do,and what he actually can do/will do are not always cohesive

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They also saw toby gerhart as a 3 down back. Im just sayin

Apples and oranges.

yeah that comparison is a desperate ploy.

The point is just to say that what a team thinks a player can do,and what he actually can do/will do are not always cohesive

agree, and it has been that way for years but whats the point of stating the obvious when people are trying to discuss much further?

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They also saw toby gerhart as a 3 down back. Im just sayin

Apples and oranges.

yeah that comparison is a desperate ploy.

The differences are black and white.
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I like Denard Robinson and think he did fairly well in the role and I wouldn't count him out. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

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They also saw toby gerhart as a 3 down back. Im just sayin

that, and NEVER listen to what a coach says about a player, especially right after they draft the guy. I wouldnt be surprised if they said Yeldon was the #2 player on their big board.

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I guess everyone is leaving Storm johnson out? I was really high on him last year and figured he'd take at least a year to get acclimated but he could end up jumping everyone else too. But the Yeldon pick kind of put the nail in my coffin there

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I'm waffling here. I was higher than most on Yeldon before the draft and now find myself LOWER than most. I guess because I'm just not able to accept the situation as being enough to dramatically bump him. The Jags are on the move but they have been so down for so long that, frankly, anything they do has to look great on paper. They have added a lot of young talent but I wouldn't call them GREAT YOUNG TALENT.

At the end of the day, is the team now travelled closed the gap that took them from terrible to competitive week in and week out? Can the Jags afford to have a run game all game or is this going to devolve into a situation where he gets 10-12 runs early each week and they fall behind and the weeks end up 17/67 and maybe a TD if the cards lines up?

I like Yeldon and I think he can do a good job in RL and FF but, for me, there's a big difference in paying a 1.10-1.12 for him and now paying 1.06-1.08. It looks like a small gap but when you take a hard look at what you may be passing on for what turns out to be a good solid (not great) FF RB, it should make you think twice. Passing on DGB, Abdullah, a franchise QB, or maybe Perriman or Dorsett, etc long term could be the difference between you owning Tre Mason value or Emmanuel Sanders/ DeAndre Hopkins value in 2 years. It's worth thinking hard on.

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I'm waffling here. I was higher than most on Yeldon before the draft and now find myself LOWER than most. I guess because I'm just not able to accept the situation as being enough to dramatically bump him. The Jags are on the move but they have been so down for so long that, frankly, anything they do has to look great on paper. They have added a lot of young talent but I wouldn't call them GREAT YOUNG TALENT.

At the end of the day, is the team now travelled closed the gap that took them from terrible to competitive week in and week out? Can the Jags afford to have a run game all game or is this going to devolve into a situation where he gets 10-12 runs early each week and they fall behind and the weeks end up 17/67 and maybe a TD if the cards lines up?

I like Yeldon and I think he can do a good job in RL and FF but, for me, there's a big difference in paying a 1.10-1.12 for him and now paying 1.06-1.08. It looks like a small gap but when you take a hard look at what you may be passing on for what turns out to be a good solid (not great) FF RB, it should make you think twice. Passing on DGB, Abdullah, a franchise QB, or maybe Perriman or Dorsett, etc long term could be the difference between you owning Tre Mason value or Emmanuel Sanders/ DeAndre Hopkins value in 2 years. It's worth thinking hard on.

Or the difference between Leveon Bell and Michael Crabtree...

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I'm waffling here. I was higher than most on Yeldon before the draft and now find myself LOWER than most. I guess because I'm just not able to accept the situation as being enough to dramatically bump him. The Jags are on the move but they have been so down for so long that, frankly, anything they do has to look great on paper. They have added a lot of young talent but I wouldn't call them GREAT YOUNG TALENT.

At the end of the day, is the team now travelled closed the gap that took them from terrible to competitive week in and week out? Can the Jags afford to have a run game all game or is this going to devolve into a situation where he gets 10-12 runs early each week and they fall behind and the weeks end up 17/67 and maybe a TD if the cards lines up?

I like Yeldon and I think he can do a good job in RL and FF but, for me, there's a big difference in paying a 1.10-1.12 for him and now paying 1.06-1.08. It looks like a small gap but when you take a hard look at what you may be passing on for what turns out to be a good solid (not great) FF RB, it should make you think twice. Passing on DGB, Abdullah, a franchise QB, or maybe Perriman or Dorsett, etc long term could be the difference between you owning Tre Mason value or Emmanuel Sanders/ DeAndre Hopkins value in 2 years. It's worth thinking hard on.

Or the difference between Leveon Bell and Michael Crabtree...

Sure. Its fair to look at both sides of the coin but overall I don't think the Jags invested as heavily as they did into the passing game to be that type of team. It made much more sense for a team like the Steelers. They have a history of it. They have the weather that dictates it. They have an older QB who has been hit a lot. They have an OC who really loves predicating the options of that type of offense. The Jags strike me more as the type of team that desperately wants to infuse talent everywhere and become a team with great defense that can pass well enough to keep up with their division.

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Rotoworld:

T.J. Yeldon - RB - Jaguars

Based on his own tape study, NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Jaguars second-round pick T.J. Yeldon "is a laterally quicker and more explosive inside runner than Melvin Gordon."

Cosell also praised Yeldon's fondness for "attack(ing) downhill with conviction" and an "ability to work effectively between the tackles." The Jaguars fired OC Jedd Fisch because he asked too much of Blake Bortles as a rookie. Under new OC Greg Olson, the Jags intend to be a ball-control team with a solid defense and high-volume run game featuring three-down back Yeldon.

Source: Yahoo Sports

May 5 - 6:12 PM

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Rotoworld:

T.J. Yeldon - RB - Jaguars

Based on his own tape study, NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Jaguars second-round pick T.J. Yeldon "is a laterally quicker and more explosive inside runner than Melvin Gordon."

Cosell also praised Yeldon's fondness for "attack(ing) downhill with conviction" and an "ability to work effectively between the tackles." The Jaguars fired OC Jedd Fisch because he asked too much of Blake Bortles as a rookie. Under new OC Greg Olson, the Jags intend to be a ball-control team with a solid defense and high-volume run game featuring three-down back Yeldon.

Source: Yahoo Sports

May 5 - 6:12 PM

As much as I like Cosell he seems to be ignoring the fact that Yeldon has issues finishing runs and breaking tackles and was beaten by smaller backs in the broad and vertical jump in the combine as well as the 3 cone shuttle and regular shuttle. Yeldon seems to be lacking in leg strength in a big way.

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Yeldon looked like a special talent as a freshman at Alabama. I remember watching that Michigan game and thinking he might be the next big thing. But he looked more ordinary over the next two seasons, playing at a higher weight and through injuries. I don't really like his landing spot with the Jags but he is a complete RB that can contribute immediately and he seems underrated heading into the NFL. I just hope they let him play 5-10 lbs lighter than he did as a junior at Alabama, as that would allow him to be more explosive.

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Yeldon seems undervalued right now. Just picked him at 1.15 (32 team league, PPR). I really didn't need another RB at all but he's just too good a value at that point.

I don't love his talent, but I think he's talented enough to carve out a nice career. Jax looks to have selected him to be a main cog in their offense so I like the situation.

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Yeldon seems undervalued right now. Just picked him at 1.15 (32 team league, PPR). I really didn't need another RB at all but he's just too good a value at that point.

I don't love his talent, but I think he's talented enough to carve out a nice career. Jax looks to have selected him to be a main cog in their offense so I like the situation.

you got a huge steal. he's going in the 1.05 - 1.08 range in almost all the drafts i've looked at.

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Yeldon seems undervalued right now. Just picked him at 1.15 (32 team league, PPR). I really didn't need another RB at all but he's just too good a value at that point.

I don't love his talent, but I think he's talented enough to carve out a nice career. Jax looks to have selected him to be a main cog in their offense so I like the situation.

I don't think one flukey league is indicative of his overall value at all. This guy is the consensus 1.06 - 1.07 pick right now.

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Yeldon seems undervalued right now. Just picked him at 1.15 (32 team league, PPR). I really didn't need another RB at all but he's just too good a value at that point.

I don't love his talent, but I think he's talented enough to carve out a nice career. Jax looks to have selected him to be a main cog in their offense so I like the situation.

I don't think one flukey league is indicative of his overall value at all. This guy is the consensus 1.06 - 1.07 pick right now.

I can agree with this. I am only in a superflex and 2QB so he's more of a 7-10 prospect for me. But in a normal lineup type league, I can't see taking him before

Gurley

Gordon

Cooper

Parker

White

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I've seen him go outside the top 12 in two different drafts already. I think as the summer goes on, he will fall in drafts as people come to realize the talent/situations of some of these other guys. That's not a knock on Yeldon. I really like him but at the end of the day I don't think he's special enough to take over some guys that have intruiging skills/situations that could really bloom.

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I've seen him go outside the top 12 in two different drafts already. I think as the summer goes on, he will fall in drafts as people come to realize the talent/situations of some of these other guys. That's not a knock on Yeldon. I really like him but at the end of the day I don't think he's special enough to take over some guys that have intruiging skills/situations that could really bloom.

Other than Gurley and Gordon Yeldon is arguably just as talented, if not more, than anyone else in the class. Personally, I like his situation in Jax a lot. I say this as a Robinson owner. Truth be told I was trying to sell Robinson high last year pre-injury. He's decent but not a great threat to Yeldon IMO.

I think his value will rise as the offseason roles on.

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Trying to decide between him and Abdullah at the 1.08, assuming I have a choice. I'm leaning Abdullah because I think he is the most talented back, but I like Yeldons situation, size and clearer path at every down work. As a Glo owner, I'm worried I'll end up with another Gio when I could get a Lacy though.

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Trying to decide between him and Abdullah at the 1.08, assuming I have a choice. I'm leaning Abdullah because I think he is the most talented back, but I like Yeldons situation, size and clearer path at every down work. As a Glo owner, I'm worried I'll end up with another Gio when I could get a Lacy though.

This is a tough call. I have then rated very similar in PPR. Standard I think it's Yeldon by more. I'd probably prefer Yeldon in PPR but really I have then as a damn near tie. Luckily for me, the guy right in front of me made my decision easy by taking Abdullah and leaving me Yeldon.

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Trying to decide between him and Abdullah at the 1.08, assuming I have a choice. I'm leaning Abdullah because I think he is the most talented back, but I like Yeldons situation, size and clearer path at every down work. As a Glo owner, I'm worried I'll end up with another Gio when I could get a Lacy though.

This is a tough call. I have then rated very similar in PPR. Standard I think it's Yeldon by more. I'd probably prefer Yeldon in PPR but really I have then as a damn near tie. Luckily for me, the guy right in front of me made my decision easy by taking Abdullah and leaving me Yeldon.

It's full PPR and I decided to go Abdullah, so probably great news for you Yeldon fans given my luck. Yeldon went right after me at the 1.09 spot.

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Rotoworld:

Alabama RB T.J. Yeldon visited the Jaguars at the club's facility Wednesday.

"Yeldon could be exactly what the Jaguars need, and available at the right time in the draft to get him," noted NFL Media. Jacksonville desperately needs a running back and isn't going to take one in Round 1 barring a blockbuster move down the board. They are in a nice position to pick the best remaining runner with the No. 36 pick, however. NFL Media analyst Charles Davis reported recently that he is "hearing more and more buzz" about Yeldon.

Source: NFL.com

Apr 8 - 8:04 PM

Prescient.

Rotoworld:

T.J. Yeldon - RB - Crimson Tide

ESPN's K.C. Joyner writes that Alabama RB T.J. Yeldon "is known for his top-end speed and breakaway ability, but his goal-line conversion ability is a skill that sets him apart."Yeldon cashed in seven touchdowns on nine rushes from at or inside the 2-yard line in 2014. "This showing was not an anomaly, as he had seven touchdowns in eight rush attempts in that scenario in 2013," Joyner wrote. "Add those seasons together and it equates to an 82.3 percent touchdown conversion rate. To put this total into perspective, note that according to ESPN Stats & Information, college rushers converted carries from at or inside the 2-yard line into a touchdown an average of 59.3 percent of the time last year. This shows Yeldon is that rare type of back who can convert drives into six points a very high percentage of the time." Yeldon, compared to Le'Veon Bell and Frank Gore, will hear his name called on Day 2.

Source: ESPN Insider

Apr 18 - 9:54 PM

Good stat.

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Rotoworld:

Alabama RB T.J. Yeldon visited the Jaguars at the club's facility Wednesday.

"Yeldon could be exactly what the Jaguars need, and available at the right time in the draft to get him," noted NFL Media. Jacksonville desperately needs a running back and isn't going to take one in Round 1 barring a blockbuster move down the board. They are in a nice position to pick the best remaining runner with the No. 36 pick, however. NFL Media analyst Charles Davis reported recently that he is "hearing more and more buzz" about Yeldon.

Source: NFL.com

Apr 8 - 8:04 PM

Prescient.

Rotoworld:

T.J. Yeldon - RB - Crimson Tide

ESPN's K.C. Joyner writes that Alabama RB T.J. Yeldon "is known for his top-end speed and breakaway ability, but his goal-line conversion ability is a skill that sets him apart."Yeldon cashed in seven touchdowns on nine rushes from at or inside the 2-yard line in 2014. "This showing was not an anomaly, as he had seven touchdowns in eight rush attempts in that scenario in 2013," Joyner wrote. "Add those seasons together and it equates to an 82.3 percent touchdown conversion rate. To put this total into perspective, note that according to ESPN Stats & Information, college rushers converted carries from at or inside the 2-yard line into a touchdown an average of 59.3 percent of the time last year. This shows Yeldon is that rare type of back who can convert drives into six points a very high percentage of the time." Yeldon, compared to Le'Veon Bell and Frank Gore, will hear his name called on Day 2.

Source: ESPN Insider

Apr 18 - 9:54 PM

Good stat.

Um, Yeldon is known for his top-end speed?

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I've seen him go outside the top 12 in two different drafts already. I think as the summer goes on, he will fall in drafts as people come to realize the talent/situations of some of these other guys. That's not a knock on Yeldon. I really like him but at the end of the day I don't think he's special enough to take over some guys that have intruiging skills/situations that could really bloom.

Other than Gurley and Gordon Yeldon is arguably just as talented, if not more, than anyone else in the class. Personally, I like his situation in Jax a lot. I say this as a Robinson owner. Truth be told I was trying to sell Robinson high last year pre-injury. He's decent but not a great threat to Yeldon IMO.

I think his value will rise as the offseason roles on.

I believe that's a common mistake that happens every year. Give it a few weeks or a month or so and suddenly you'll start seeing all lower RBs rise. The Javorious Allens and Cameron hyphenated guy down in Carolina will start creeping up and up. That doesn't mean they are worthy dynasty guys. Just means everyone takes times kicking every RB rock they can find and justifies it.

But every year, you see the mistake. Sankey over Odell Beckham, Ronnie Hillman over Alshon Jeffrey. Zac Stacy over keenan Allen. People equate "3rd best or next best" as "nearly as good as the other guys.

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I agree with jurb. As the summer moves on yeldons stock will go up. Not saying he should be drafted ahead of the top wrs, but I do think the gap between gordon and yeldon is a lot smaller than perceived.

Yeldon isn't some mid round talent. He was drafted to be the main rb and is not given enough credit for his blocking and receiving. He is a legit 3-down rb and is as NFL ready as gurley or gordon. I think he is a huge steal in the mid late 1st.

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But every year, you see the mistake. Sankey over Odell Beckham, Ronnie Hillman over Alshon Jeffrey. Zac Stacy over keenan Allen. People equate "3rd best or next best" as "nearly as good as the other guys.

Or Le'Veon Bell over Cordarrelle Patterson, or LeSean McCoy over Hakeem Nicks. There are examples that go both ways and it's different every year. A lot of times those "next best" running backs end up being not only the best RBs of their class, but the best RBs in the entire dynasty landscape.

Most of the 2nd round RB sdrafted in recent years has been given a legit shot at the workhorse role for their team. Yeldon was drafted higher than any of them. The question is whether he'll take it and run with it like Lacy, Bell, and Hill or whether he'll fall flat like Gio and Ball.

Also, Sankey is a poor example as he was not "3rd best or next best". He was the first RB selected in the draft and had the highest RB ADP in rookie drafts. The 3rd best/next best guy was Jeremy Hill, who I think is doing pretty well right now ;)

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But every year, you see the mistake. Sankey over Odell Beckham, Ronnie Hillman over Alshon Jeffrey. Zac Stacy over keenan Allen. People equate "3rd best or next best" as "nearly as good as the other guys.

Or Le'Veon Bell over Cordarrelle Patterson, or LeSean McCoy over Hakeem Nicks. There are examples that go both ways and it's different every year. A lot of times those "next best" running backs end up being not only the best RBs of their class, but the best RBs in the entire dynasty landscape.

Most of the 2nd round RB sdrafted in recent years has been given a legit shot at the workhorse role for their team. Yeldon was drafted higher than any of them. The question is whether he'll take it and run with it like Lacy, Bell, and Hill or whether he'll fall flat like Gio and Ball.

Also, Sankey is a poor example as he was not "3rd best or next best". He was the first RB selected in the draft and had the highest RB ADP in rookie drafts. The 3rd best/next best guy was Jeremy Hill, who I think is doing pretty well right now ;)

The difference in your examples are that Bell and Shady were already highly known guys with good grades who were already in the tier of the top guys. Yeldon is fairly universally already pegged at not on the same tier as the top two.

And then, when you take into account the high profile misses of RB (M. Ball, TRICH), its even worse because, back in the day, you might have to pay a pretty penny for Patterson but you had to sell children to come up to get TRICH and pay quite a lot of Ball. Also have to factor in injuries. After the first two years, it would have cost 2 Shadys to get Nicks in dyno. Injuries undid him, which, more times than not, is actually more detrimental to RBs than it ever is a WR. Nicks was kind of an unusual exception. A promising WR can tear a hammy, groin, ACL, whatever, and it seldom has long lasting impact to the dynasty value. A RB can crack a toe or medial tarsal and he's damaged goods all the way around.

There are certainly cases to support any stance in something like this but the overall thought on my point is people should be really leery when you go through 9 months to a year and you consistently see a guy in a certain tier (or don't know him at all) and then all of a sudden you start seeing him drafted a lot higher. That, to me (just my opinion), is a sign that people are reacting to other people's drafts and data and that the data they are reacting to is likely based on need or buying lottery tickets and isn't the true long-term perception of value that has been for a long period leading up to it.

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But every year, you see the mistake. Sankey over Odell Beckham, Ronnie Hillman over Alshon Jeffrey. Zac Stacy over keenan Allen. People equate "3rd best or next best" as "nearly as good as the other guys.

Or Le'Veon Bell over Cordarrelle Patterson, or LeSean McCoy over Hakeem Nicks. There are examples that go both ways and it's different every year. A lot of times those "next best" running backs end up being not only the best RBs of their class, but the best RBs in the entire dynasty landscape.

Most of the 2nd round RB sdrafted in recent years has been given a legit shot at the workhorse role for their team. Yeldon was drafted higher than any of them. The question is whether he'll take it and run with it like Lacy, Bell, and Hill or whether he'll fall flat like Gio and Ball.

Also, Sankey is a poor example as he was not "3rd best or next best". He was the first RB selected in the draft and had the highest RB ADP in rookie drafts. The 3rd best/next best guy was Jeremy Hill, who I think is doing pretty well right now ;)

The difference in your examples are that Bell and Shady were already highly known guys with good grades who were already in the tier of the top guys. Yeldon is fairly universally already pegged at not on the same tier as the top two.

And then, when you take into account the high profile misses of RB (M. Ball, TRICH), its even worse because, back in the day, you might have to pay a pretty penny for Patterson but you had to sell children to come up to get TRICH and pay quite a lot of Ball. Also have to factor in injuries. After the first two years, it would have cost 2 Shadys to get Nicks in dyno. Injuries undid him, which, more times than not, is actually more detrimental to RBs than it ever is a WR. Nicks was kind of an unusual exception. A promising WR can tear a hammy, groin, ACL, whatever, and it seldom has long lasting impact to the dynasty value. A RB can crack a toe or medial tarsal and he's damaged goods all the way around.

There are certainly cases to support any stance in something like this but the overall thought on my point is people should be really leery when you go through 9 months to a year and you consistently see a guy in a certain tier (or don't know him at all) and then all of a sudden you start seeing him drafted a lot higher. That, to me (just my opinion), is a sign that people are reacting to other people's drafts and data and that the data they are reacting to is likely based on need or buying lottery tickets and isn't the true long-term perception of value that has been for a long period leading up to it.

If I recall Shady was pretty well considered in a tier behind Moreno/Wells, and Bell on the fringe of the tier (either in or out depending on who you talked to) with Lacy/Gio. Regardless, I don't think you can really punish Yeldon for coming out alongside better prospects than those guys any more than you can punish Lynch for coming out alongside Peterson or Chris Johnson for coming out alongside Stewart/McFadden. If Yeldon were in Bell or Shady's draft class he would have been in the same tier as them.

Let's not forget that the WRs you cited were also "next tier" guys. ODB was highly regarded but not in the same tier as Watkins/Evans and Jeffery well behind Floyd/Blackmon. We're not talking about people taking Yeldon over Amari Cooper here. We're talking about taking him over the equivalent of the Marqise Lee's and Justin Hunters and Kendall Wrights and Jonathan Baldwins and Kenny Britts and Robert Meachems of the world. Those next tier WRs don't exactly have the best track record either. In fact, while there have certainly been some good ones, it's quite a horrible track record overall in spite of this past year's amazing success clouding everyone's memory.

I'm not sure what the point in bringing up the top tier RBs was, but again, don't let a couple of good recent years cloud your memory. Even the top tier WRs have a pretty poor track record going back the last 10 years. Sure there are 6 or 7 really good WRs that came from the 1st round of the NFL draft right now, but that's out of 35 WRs drafted in the 1st in the last 10 years, and 23 of those guys were pretty major busts with about 18 of them being utterly colossal busts that never had a day of fantasy usefulness.

Point being, the overwhelming success of the 2014 WR class is shrouding people's view of what we can really expect from a typical WR class. The next tier WRs are just as much a crapshoot as the next tier RBs, as are the top tier WRs compared to the top tier RBs. It's not uncommon for 5+ WRs to go in the 1st round of the NFL draft. It is uncommon for more than one or two of them, if any, to become great fantasy players. In fact, last year may be the only year it's happened in recent history.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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He is going to get the ball, that is all that matters right now.

Yeah, don't take into account anything else. That's all that matters. Like last year when Toby Gerhardt was going to get the ball. Actually, he did. How did that work out?

Not trying to be a contrarian. Actually, I like Yeldon a lot. Have him on one of my teams. I'm just saying we all can get a little blind this time of year because we stop looking at what we have known for a year and we start looking at "I got the 1.108..what's left? Oh, he's left. Let me spin him round and round until he sounds perfect. I won't reach. Not me. I won't ignore the better player available just because I NEED a Rb. Not me."

At the end of the day, nobody cares what somebody else does on their ff team. In some ways, there are guys out there who love it when we do this cause it clears them to take the better player. You know, that guy in your leagues that says "I can't believe [player x] fell to me!!"?

All I'm saying in the posts I have made in the thread is keep your eyes open. Don't get caught up in it. I have found when I remove biases, I do MUCH better than getting sucked into the hot topics.

Edited by Shutout

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He is going to get the ball, that is all that matters right now.

Yeah, don't take into account anything else. That's all that matters. Like last year when Toby Gerhardt was going to get the ball. Actually, he did. How did that work out?

Comparing Toby to TJ is comedy gold.

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I have the 4th pick and am seriously considering Yeldon in that spot. I figure Gurley, Gordon and one of Cooper/White will be gone. It's a reach but I really like Yeldon and RBs tend to go quick in this league. I'm not sure if I trade down he would not be picked in this spot anyhow or a couple after. I have all summer to make the final call but if the draft were today I think I would lean that way.

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He is going to get the ball, that is all that matters right now.

Yeah, don't take into account anything else. That's all that matters. Like last year when Toby Gerhardt was going to get the ball. Actually, he did. How did that work out?

Comparing Toby to TJ is comedy gold.

Yeah, like when I was told TRICH compared to Mark Ingram was foolish because TRICH was in a whole other league than Ingram.

The point is "you don't KNOW" so limiting your decision to what the herd is doing is not always smart.

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I have the 4th pick and am seriously considering Yeldon in that spot. I figure Gurley, Gordon and one of Cooper/White will be gone. It's a reach but I really like Yeldon and RBs tend to go quick in this league. I'm not sure if I trade down he would not be picked in this spot anyhow or a couple after. I have all summer to make the final call but if the draft were today I think I would lean that way.

See. This is the problem. Sure they do. But they aren't always right. I'm sure Sankey went early. Moreno, Wells, Trich, M. Ball.

Don't get caught up in the NEED to take a guy because "that's how it goes". In dynasty, if you are looking at Amari Cooper, Kevin White, or Devante Parker at 4, I think you could live with that for a LONG time.

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He is going to get the ball, that is all that matters right now.

Yeah, don't take into account anything else. That's all that matters. Like last year when Toby Gerhardt was going to get the ball. Actually, he did. How did that work out?

Not trying to be a contrarian. Actually, I like Yeldon a lot. Have him on one of my teams. I'm just saying we all can get a little blind this time of year because we stop looking at what we have known for a year and we start looking at "I got the 1.108..what's left? Oh, he's left. Let me spin him round and round until he sounds perfect. I won't reach. Not me. I won't ignore the better player available just because I NEED a Rb. Not me."

At the end of the day, nobody cares what somebody else does on their ff team. In some ways, there are guys out there who love it when we do this cause it clears them to take the better player. You know, that guy in your leagues that says "I can't believe [player x] fell to me!!"?

All I'm saying in the posts I have made in the thread is keep your eyes open. Don't get caught up in it. I have found when I remove biases, I do MUCH better than getting sucked into the hot topics.

I don't see how anyone is doing this by taking him as a lower mid 1st rounder. That's about where he belongs and that's about where he's going. What you've said is no different than anyone else available at that spot. Everyone there has legitimate questions/concerns or else they would have been gone already. This is ESPECIALLY true for WRs who's value is sky high right now in dynasty leagues. I'm not really even sure what point you're trying to make anymore. Take the best player? OK, great, but the implication that the WR is generally the best player there because of two anecdotal guys from the past is a false notion. The vast, vast, vastpercentage of WRs available in that spot have ended up being busts. At least as often as the RBs have.

And if we're really talking about "just take the guy with the best pedigree" then we'd all be taking Winston/Mariota anyway, so obviously need and position do and should factor into things to an extent.

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I have the 4th pick and am seriously considering Yeldon in that spot. I figure Gurley, Gordon and one of Cooper/White will be gone. It's a reach but I really like Yeldon and RBs tend to go quick in this league. I'm not sure if I trade down he would not be picked in this spot anyhow or a couple after. I have all summer to make the final call but if the draft were today I think I would lean that way.

See. This is the problem. Sure they do. But they aren't always right. I'm sure Sankey went early. Moreno, Wells, Trich, M. Ball.

Don't get caught up in the NEED to take a guy because "that's how it goes". In dynasty, if you are looking at Amari Cooper, Kevin White, or Devante Parker at 4, I think you could live with that for a LONG time.

I could take the consensus next best at #4 based on other drafts or rankings but the guys you mention are no more of a lock for success than Yeldon. I understand what you're saying but if I wait and select an RB with my next pick the fall off would be huge whereas the WRs will have hardly been touched and I will get more value picking one later than sooner.

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He is going to get the ball, that is all that matters right now.

Yeah, don't take into account anything else. That's all that matters. Like last year when Toby Gerhardt was going to get the ball. Actually, he did. How did that work out?

Comparing Toby to TJ is comedy gold.

Gerhardt like Yeldon was a second round pick and he had a better college career - it's not like it's that outlandish.

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He is going to get the ball, that is all that matters right now.

Yeah, don't take into account anything else. That's all that matters. Like last year when Toby Gerhardt was going to get the ball. Actually, he did. How did that work out?

Comparing Toby to TJ is comedy gold.

Gerhardt like Yeldon was a second round pick and he had a better college career - it's not like it's that outlandish.

yes it is outlandish.

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