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Dynasty: NON-Draft eligible College prospects

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Goff had an off game against Stanfraud, 16/31 for just 182 yards. He had two INTs, but both were on tipped balls, one when he got hit as he released, the other on what could have been a big gainer to an open receiver on the sideline. He also had one particularly bad throw that could have been intercepted, and seemed to get rattled as the game went on, although he still made some nice plays in the fourth quarter. On the most ridiculous officiating sequence I've ever seen (three plays in a row, Cal had TDs overturned on review), Kenny Lawler dropped a TD when he landed in the end zone.

With that, the only opportunity he has for a big win this year is to beat BYU next week to become bowl-eligible, and hope Cal gets a matchup against a brand-name team. If that doesn't happen, he'll probably remain a bit under the rader going into 2015.

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It's still early in the college season and he's only a true freshman, but my God, you gotta check out Samaje Perine RB from OU. You'll be hearing about him soon enough. 5'11 240 lbs. Watching defenders bounce off him is hilarious. 242 rushing yards and 4 TDs last game vs West Virginia.

:bowtie:

Boomer

The next Ron Dayne?

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Rotoworld:

Penn State sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg completed 8 of 16 attempts for 93 yards and a touchdown in the school's 16-14 loss to Illinois.

Do we have to repeat ourselves? We have read some blaming the offensive line for Hackenberg's poor play this season while citing sack totals. That is not fair to the offensive line, as Hackenberg is the reason for so many of the sacks. It might not be a situation that many could succeed in, but right now Hackenberg is not one of them.
Nov 22 - 4:52 PM

Ohio State redshirt freshman QB J.T. Barrett completed 25 of 35 attempts for 302 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in the school's 42-27 win over Indiana.

Barrett added another 78 yards on the ground. What Barrett does so well is decipher what he is seeing, both pre and post snap. As many have stated, it will be interesting to see what Urban Meyer does with Barrett and Braxton Miller next season. We doubt Barrett sits.
Nov 22 - 3:39 PM

Eh, not sure I completely agree with Rotoworld there on Hackenberg. The OLine is definately the main issue. They were absolutely terrible for most of the season. Hack has some mobility but he's really a pocket QB and with no pocket and no running game due to terrible blocking, he got killed. Now, the last couple of games were against lesser defenses and the line got an injured Sr OG back and looked better. The running game was better as well. But Hackenberg still played a bit afraid and didn't stride into throws or trust his reads. Next year there will be more bodies and everyone will be more experienced, so I expect him to have a better year. But he still doesn't fit Franklin's offense very well.

So the question is whether NFL teams think they can get him back to where he was last year, as an outstanding pro style QB, or whether he has been David Carr level ruined from all the abuse this season.

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Rotoworld:

Penn State sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg completed 8 of 16 attempts for 93 yards and a touchdown in the school's 16-14 loss to Illinois.

Do we have to repeat ourselves? We have read some blaming the offensive line for Hackenberg's poor play this season while citing sack totals. That is not fair to the offensive line, as Hackenberg is the reason for so many of the sacks. It might not be a situation that many could succeed in, but right now Hackenberg is not one of them.
Nov 22 - 4:52 PM

Ohio State redshirt freshman QB J.T. Barrett completed 25 of 35 attempts for 302 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in the school's 42-27 win over Indiana.

Barrett added another 78 yards on the ground. What Barrett does so well is decipher what he is seeing, both pre and post snap. As many have stated, it will be interesting to see what Urban Meyer does with Barrett and Braxton Miller next season. We doubt Barrett sits.
Nov 22 - 3:39 PM

Eh, not sure I completely agree with Rotoworld there on Hackenberg. The OLine is definately the main issue. They were absolutely terrible for most of the season. Hack has some mobility but he's really a pocket QB and with no pocket and no running game due to terrible blocking, he got killed. Now, the last couple of games were against lesser defenses and the line got an injured Sr OG back and looked better. The running game was better as well. But Hackenberg still played a bit afraid and didn't stride into throws or trust his reads. Next year there will be more bodies and everyone will be more experienced, so I expect him to have a better year. But he still doesn't fit Franklin's offense very well.

So the question is whether NFL teams think they can get him back to where he was last year, as an outstanding pro style QB, or whether he has been David Carr level ruined from all the abuse this season.

He wasn't great last year either imo, definitely overrated. 59% CMP%, 7.54 YPA, 2/1 TD/INT ratio, those numbers certainly didn't scream NFL prospect.

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He was a true freshman last year. They usually don't dominate statistically at QB.

That's a lot less true these days than just several years ago. And usually it takes more than statistical mediocrity to get as much hype as he's had, even for a true freshman.

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He was a true freshman last year. They usually don't dominate statistically at QB.

That's a lot less true these days than just several years ago. And usually it takes more than statistical mediocrity to get as much hype as he's had, even for a true freshman.

Here are the last 19 first round QBs and their true freshman performance.

Bortles - Redshirted.

Manziel - Redshirted.

Bridgewater - 64.5%, 7.2 YPA, 1.17 TD : INT

Manuel - 65.1%, 7.7 YPA, 0.33 TD : INT

Luck - Redshirted.

RGIII - 59.9%, 7.8 YPA, 5.00 TD : INT

Tannehill - Redshirted.

Weeden - Redshirted.

Newton - Played sparingly (12 pass attempts in first two seasons).

Locker - 47.3%, 6.3 YPA, 0.93 TD : INT

Gabbert - Played sparingly (13 pass attempts as a freshman).

Ponder - Played sparingly (18 pass attempts as a freshman).

Bradford - Redshirted.

Tebow - Played sparingly (33 pass attempts as a freshman).

Stafford - 52.7%, 6.8 YPA, 0.54 TD : INT

Sanchez - Redshirted.

Freeman - 51.9%, 6.6 YPA, 0.4 TD : INT

Ryan - Redshirted.

Flacco - Played sparingly (4 pass attempts as a freshman).

So among all the recent elite QB prospects:

- 68.4% either redshirted or played sparingly in their first year out of high school.

- Of the few who received extensive playing time, the averages were: 56.9% completions, 7.1 YPA, 1.40 TD : INT (completely skewed by RG III's outlier).

All that being the case, there's a very strong argument that Hackenberg's true freshman season of 58.9% completions, 7.5 YPA, and 2.00 TD : INT was actually far ahead of the performance curve even compared with eventual elite prospects at the position. Most first round QBs did not even play significant minutes as true freshmen. Of those who did, only RGIII had arguably better numbers than Hackenberg, and he did that as a dual threat on 267 pass attempts whereas Hackenberg had 392 pass attempts and presented no running threat. So there's absolutely nothing wrong with Hackenberg being hyped after a year like that. In fact, he absolutely SHOULD have been hyped after a year like that.

What's happened since then is a different story...

Edited by EBF

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He was a true freshman last year. They usually don't dominate statistically at QB.

That's a lot less true these days than just several years ago. And usually it takes more than statistical mediocrity to get as much hype as he's had, even for a true freshman.

Here are the last 19 first round QBs and their true freshman performance.

Bortles - Redshirted.

Manziel - Redshirted.

Bridgewater - 64.5%, 7.2 YPA, 1.17 TD : INT

Manuel - 65.1%, 7.7 YPA, 0.33 TD : INT

Luck - Redshirted.

RGIII - 59.9%, 7.8 YPA, 5.00 TD : INT

Tannehill - Redshirted.

Weeden - Redshirted.

Newton - Played sparingly (12 pass attempts in first two seasons).

Locker - 47.3%, 6.3 YPA, 0.93 TD : INT

Gabbert - Played sparingly (13 pass attempts as a freshman).

Ponder - Played sparingly (18 pass attempts as a freshman).

Bradford - Redshirted.

Tebow - Played sparingly (33 pass attempts as a freshman).

Stafford - 52.7%, 6.8 YPA, 0.54 TD : INT

Sanchez - Redshirted.

Freeman - 51.9%, 6.6 YPA, 0.4 TD : INT

Ryan - Redshirted.

Flacco - Played sparingly (4 pass attempts as a freshman).

So among all the recent elite QB prospects:

- 68.4% either redshirted or played sparingly in their first year out of high school.

- Of the few who received extensive playing time, the averages were: 56.9% completions, 7.1 YPA, 1.40 TD : INT (completely skewed by RG III's outlier).

All that being the case, there's a very strong argument that Hackenberg's true freshman season of 58.9% completions, 7.5 YPA, and 2.00 TD : INT was actually far ahead of the performance curve even compared with eventual elite prospects at the position. Most first round QBs did not even play significant minutes as true freshmen. Of those who did, only RGIII had arguably better numbers than Hackenberg, and he did that as a dual threat on 267 pass attempts whereas Hackenberg had 392 pass attempts and presented no running threat. So there's absolutely nothing wrong with Hackenberg being hyped after a year like that. In fact, he absolutely SHOULD have been hyped after a year like that.

What's happened since then is a different story...

Guess I was wrong, I didn't realize all those guys' freshman seasons were following redshirt seasons.

Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.

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He was a true freshman last year. They usually don't dominate statistically at QB.

That's a lot less true these days than just several years ago. And usually it takes more than statistical mediocrity to get as much hype as he's had, even for a true freshman.

Here are the last 19 first round QBs and their true freshman performance.

Bortles - Redshirted.

Manziel - Redshirted.

Bridgewater - 64.5%, 7.2 YPA, 1.17 TD : INT

Manuel - 65.1%, 7.7 YPA, 0.33 TD : INT

Luck - Redshirted.

RGIII - 59.9%, 7.8 YPA, 5.00 TD : INT

Tannehill - Redshirted.

Weeden - Redshirted.

Newton - Played sparingly (12 pass attempts in first two seasons).

Locker - 47.3%, 6.3 YPA, 0.93 TD : INT

Gabbert - Played sparingly (13 pass attempts as a freshman).

Ponder - Played sparingly (18 pass attempts as a freshman).

Bradford - Redshirted.

Tebow - Played sparingly (33 pass attempts as a freshman).

Stafford - 52.7%, 6.8 YPA, 0.54 TD : INT

Sanchez - Redshirted.

Freeman - 51.9%, 6.6 YPA, 0.4 TD : INT

Ryan - Redshirted.

Flacco - Played sparingly (4 pass attempts as a freshman).

So among all the recent elite QB prospects:

- 68.4% either redshirted or played sparingly in their first year out of high school.

- Of the few who received extensive playing time, the averages were: 56.9% completions, 7.1 YPA, 1.40 TD : INT (completely skewed by RG III's outlier).

All that being the case, there's a very strong argument that Hackenberg's true freshman season of 58.9% completions, 7.5 YPA, and 2.00 TD : INT was actually far ahead of the performance curve even compared with eventual elite prospects at the position. Most first round QBs did not even play significant minutes as true freshmen. Of those who did, only RGIII had arguably better numbers than Hackenberg, and he did that as a dual threat on 267 pass attempts whereas Hackenberg had 392 pass attempts and presented no running threat. So there's absolutely nothing wrong with Hackenberg being hyped after a year like that. In fact, he absolutely SHOULD have been hyped after a year like that.

What's happened since then is a different story...

Nice article on it, actually here: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/6/19/5814212/christian-hackenberg-penn-state-quarterback

Different since, of course.

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Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.

That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well.

In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet.

I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag.

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Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.

That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well.

In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet.

I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag.

I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares.

Edited by Time Kibitzer

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Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.

That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well.

In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet.

I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag.

I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares.

Hackenberg doesn't look much different statistically than these two guys I've compared him to. Can you tell which one he is? These numbers are after their Sophomore seasons.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3V0yJsCAAACMPD.jpg

One of them went #1 overall and the other went #11.

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Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.

That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well.

In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet.

I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag.

I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares.

Hackenberg doesn't look much different statistically than these two guys I've compared him to. Can you tell which one he is? These numbers are after their Sophomore seasons.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3V0yJsCAAACMPD.jpg

One of them went #1 overall and the other went #11.

I'd guess he's the one with the ####ty stats but all of them have ####ty stats.

Edited by Time Kibitzer

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I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares.

I don't think I said he's a great QB prospect or that his sophomore year isn't a cause for concern. I think great college production at QB is usually necessary, but not sufficient. Meaning the guys who don't have it will probably flop (i.e. Gabbert, Locker), but also that having it doesn't guarantee success (i.e. Bradford, Sanchez, Tebow). That being said, Hackenberg's freshman year was strong statistically given his class standing. It's only this year as a sophomore that the big production red flags have popped up.

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I would expect Chubb, Perine, and Freeman to be the top 3 picks in most all-class devy drafts, probably in that order. Fournette is already taken in a lot of my leagues and IMO hasn't flashed quite as much as those guys. Chubb is a monster and worth paying a premium for. The only problem is that you're going to have to sit on him for two years and hope that he doesn't get injured.

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What are everyone's thoughts on the freshman rb class?

Chubb, fournette, Freeman, pperine I would rank them in that order right now.

I'm still very low on Fournette. Hasn't done anything to change how I see him. I don't see how he's better than Jalen Hurd. I'd put Dalvin Cook over Fournette. Roc Thomas will join Cook for me eventually.

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What are everyone's thoughts on the freshman rb class?

Chubb, fournette, Freeman, pperine I would rank them in that order right now.

I'd rank them;

Chubb

Freeman

Perine

Fournettle

I'm starting to gather a list of guys for 2017. So far.

QB

Deshaun Watson, Clemson

Kyle Allen, TAM

Brad Kaaya, Mia

RB

Nick Chubb, UGA

Royce Freeman, Oregon

Dalvin Cook, FSU

Racean Thomas, Auburn

Samaje Perine, Oklahoma

Leonard Fournette, LSU

Elijah Hood, UNC

Bo Scarbourgh, Bama

Jeff Jones, Minn

WR

Malachi Dupree, LSU

Ermone Lane, FSU

Josh Malone, Tenn

Davion Hall, Baylor

Allen Lazard, Iowa St.

Feel free to add. It's not in any particular order.

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Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.

That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well.

In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet.

I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag.

I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares.

Hackenberg doesn't look much different statistically than these two guys I've compared him to. Can you tell which one he is? These numbers are after their Sophomore seasons.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3V0yJsCAAACMPD.jpg

One of them went #1 overall and the other went #11.

I'd guess he's the one with the ####ty stats but all of them have ####ty stats.

Hack is A. The other 2 are Cutler and Stafford.

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It's still early in the college season and he's only a true freshman, but my God, you gotta check out Samaje Perine RB from OU. You'll be hearing about him soon enough. 5'11 240 lbs. Watching defenders bounce off him is hilarious. 242 rushing yards and 4 TDs last game vs West Virginia.

:bowtie:

Boomer

The next Ron Dayne?

Now that I go back and watch Dayne, I like that comparison

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I would expect Chubb, Perine, and Freeman to be the top 3 picks in most all-class devy drafts, probably in that order. Fournette is already taken in a lot of my leagues and IMO hasn't flashed quite as much as those guys. Chubb is a monster and worth paying a premium for. The only problem is that you're going to have to sit on him for two years and hope that he doesn't get injured.

LSU's offense really holds Fournette back because you can't see his athletic ability. But the few runs he's broke, he has abilities Perine and Freeman don't have.

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What are everyone's thoughts on the freshman rb class?

Chubb, fournette, Freeman, pperine I would rank them in that order right now.

I'm still very low on Fournette. Hasn't done anything to change how I see him. I don't see how he's better than Jalen Hurd. I'd put Dalvin Cook over Fournette. Roc Thomas will join Cook for me eventually.

I don't see the explosiveness from Hurd. I can't comment on Cook as I haven't put as much time into him. Roc looked to dance too much and wasn't as fast as I wanted from the HS film I watched.

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It's still early in the college season and he's only a true freshman, but my God, you gotta check out Samaje Perine RB from OU. You'll be hearing about him soon enough. 5'11 240 lbs. Watching defenders bounce off him is hilarious. 242 rushing yards and 4 TDs last game vs West Virginia.

:bowtie:

Boomer

The next Ron Dayne?

Now that I go back and watch Dayne, I like that comparison

Perine is overrated to me as I don't see great from him. Good feet/vision for his size, but agility/speed/hands lacking. I also expected more power for his size, I don't see the power back mentality.

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It's still early in the college season and he's only a true freshman, but my God, you gotta check out Samaje Perine RB from OU. You'll be hearing about him soon enough. 5'11 240 lbs. Watching defenders bounce off him is hilarious. 242 rushing yards and 4 TDs last game vs West Virginia.

:bowtie:

Boomer

The next Ron Dayne?

Now that I go back and watch Dayne, I like that comparison

Perine is overrated to me as I don't see great from him. Good feet/vision for his size, but agility/speed/hands lacking. I also expected more power for his size, I don't see the power back mentality.

It's still early in the college season and he's only a true freshman, but my God, you gotta check out Samaje Perine RB from OU. You'll be hearing about him soon enough. 5'11 240 lbs. Watching defenders bounce off him is hilarious. 242 rushing yards and 4 TDs last game vs West Virginia.

:bowtie:

Boomer

The next Ron Dayne?

Now that I go back and watch Dayne, I like that comparison

Rudi Johnson.

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Rotoworld:

Penn State sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg completed 21 of 45 attempts for 195 yards and one interception in the school's 34-10 loss to Michigan State.

There are many excuses: play calling, offensive line, lack of weapons, etc. If you only point to those and do not recognize Hackenberg's poor play as well, than you are not being honest. He is in a poor situation, but Hackenberg is not elevating it. We repeat ourselves every week, but the expectations placed on Hackenberg this offseason were unfair.
Nov 29 - 7:03 PM

Ohio State redshirt freshman QB J.T. Barrett will miss the remainder of the season with a broken right ankle.

Sophomore Cardale Jones will now be the starter. Barrett was having an unbelievable season prior to the injury and should enter next year as the start if healthy regardless of Braxton Miller's impending return.
Nov 29 - 6:02 PM

Clemson freshman QB Deshaun Watson played with a torn ACL in the school's 35-17 win over South Carolina, according to HC Dabo Swinney.

Swinney said the injury occurred during practice a few days before the Georgia State game and Watson will have surgery after the bowl game. He did not play against Georgia State, but Watson did shine in today's contest despite the injury and a possible aggravation early in the contest.
Nov 29 - 4:39 PM

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In Goff's last game of the season, he went for 38/60/393 with 4 TDs and 1 INT. He had some great moments, especially his next-to-last drive which resulted in Cal tying the game. On that drive he made two amazing bullet throws while getting hit, one on third and long, and also converted a fourth-and-1 with a pass on a post route. After BYU scored again, he drove the Bears down to the 10 yard line with 30 second left, but a false start penalty forced Cal to burn its last timeout, which put us first and goal at the 15 with no timeouts. BYU double covered everyone in the end zone and on four attempts there were no real close scoring plays.

The INT he threw was probably the worst ball I saw him throw all year; it was on a deep post, and his man had a step, but he underthrew the spot by 5 yards and the defender undercut the route. He also missed a few reads as BYU changed up and disguised coverages; several times he threw to the overloaded side for little or no gain, when he had single coverage on the opposite side.

With Cal finishing 5-7, hype will remain mellow on Goff going into 2015, but almost all of the key offensive players are scheduled to come back, and if Cal can recruit a couple playmakers on defense, we'll be hoping to challenge Oregon instead of hoping to challenge BYU.

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What is the 2016 draft class looking like as of now?

young

It is way early, but how does it compare to the last few draft classes at this time?

I used to forecast but after doing this for a decade or so I've learned too much will change, there are a lot of great and interesting under classmen, but there are this time every year.

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Devys already owned: Treadwell, Henry, Dupre, Fournette, Tyner.

Was offered devy picks #8, 9, 10, 11 for my Cam, Reggie Bush, and Brian Quick. Completely clueless to value of devy picks, so looking for advice. This owner has 9 of the 12 devy picks, so if this offer sucks what would a good counter be in picks only?

Any number of devys can be stashed on taxi squad so roster space is not an issue.

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Devys already owned: Treadwell, Henry, Dupre, Fournette, Tyner.

Was offered devy picks #8, 9, 10, 11 for my Cam, Reggie Bush, and Brian Quick. Completely clueless to value of devy picks, so looking for advice. This owner has 9 of the 12 devy picks, so if this offer sucks what would a good counter be in picks only?

Any number of devys can be stashed on taxi squad so roster space is not an issue.

Devy picks are a huge crapshoot. Without the benefit of the NFL draft to serve as a proxy for assessing player quality, you have to do a lot of guesswork on your own. It's possible to hit a home run, but also very easy to crap out if you make one wrong step or are slightly off with your assessments.

That offer is a tough one for me because a couple of the pieces are pretty fluid. Bush is what he is. A soon-to-be 30 year old RB who has always been somewhat brittle. Maybe he scrapes together 1-2 more useful seasons. Maybe not. Purely as a trade chip, he's not worth much these days and probably never will be again. Cam has been crap this year. Is that temporary or is this the new normal? Quick was very good this year. Is that temporary or is this the new normal? If you figure that Reggie is maybe worth a late dev pick at this point and one of the two from Newton/Quick will be junk in future seasons, it's basically one good player for three late dev picks. Without having any concrete math in front of me, my hunch is that it's a favorable deal for you.

That being said, much of that will hinge on your ability to identify at least 1-2 legit prospects between those picks. Also, I think it depends on what kind of devy league this is. I play in some leagues where only players who are eligible for the next NFL draft can be picked in the devy draft. I'm in other leagues where ANY player from college can be drafted (even if he's years away from matriculation). I value late picks higher in the latter type of league because the higher uncertainty and shorter track records of the players means that premium talents are more likely to slide out of the top 3-4 picks. So that would affect my decision a little bit.

Edited by EBF

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Any college players including incoming Freshmen can be taken.

I am leaning towards trying to squeeze out one slightly earlier devy, and if he doesn't go for it just taking the deal as is. Everything you said is basically what I was thinking. Non-stud QBs just are not worth much in 1QB leagues, Reggie's value is nothing, and Quick plays for STL. I "like" all of these players, but I would be surprised if any of them are game-changers.

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Made the deal, my squad now:

QB: Romo, Manziel, Austin Davis, Glennon, Bradford(IR)
WR: Dez, Julio, Gordon, Watkins, Treadwell*, Malachi Dupre*, Wheaton, Charles Johnson, Taylor Gabriel, Huff

RB: Gurley*, Gordon*, Yeldon*, Knile Davis, Pierre Thomas
TE: Owen Daniels, Fleener, Richard Rodgers, Chandler

5 Late devys

Rookie Picks 2.01, 2.07(ish)

Edited by K0wned

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In Goff's last game of the season, he went for 38/60/393 with 4 TDs and 1 INT. He had some great moments, especially his next-to-last drive which resulted in Cal tying the game. On that drive he made two amazing bullet throws while getting hit, one on third and long, and also converted a fourth-and-1 with a pass on a post route. After BYU scored again, he drove the Bears down to the 10 yard line with 30 second left, but a false start penalty forced Cal to burn its last timeout, which put us first and goal at the 15 with no timeouts. BYU double covered everyone in the end zone and on four attempts there were no real close scoring plays.

The INT he threw was probably the worst ball I saw him throw all year; it was on a deep post, and his man had a step, but he underthrew the spot by 5 yards and the defender undercut the route. He also missed a few reads as BYU changed up and disguised coverages; several times he threw to the overloaded side for little or no gain, when he had single coverage on the opposite side.

With Cal finishing 5-7, hype will remain mellow on Goff going into 2015, but almost all of the key offensive players are scheduled to come back, and if Cal can recruit a couple playmakers on defense, we'll be hoping to challenge Oregon instead of hoping to challenge BYU.

Goff is good, but needs to bulk up a lot. He makes Tom Brady look like JJ Watt. He will get killed in the NFL if he doesn't add a lot of weight.

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Goff is good, but needs to bulk up a lot. He makes Tom Brady look like JJ Watt. He will get killed in the NFL if he doesn't add a lot of weight.

He's a QB, not a RB. And he doesn't run much. He's listed at 6'4", 205 (at age 19); Derek Carr checked in at 6'2", 214 at age 21, which isn't a whole lot different. Weight won't be a significant factor in his NFL selection.

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Goff is good, but needs to bulk up a lot. He makes Tom Brady look like JJ Watt. He will get killed in the NFL if he doesn't add a lot of weight.

He's a QB, not a RB. And he doesn't run much. He's listed at 6'4", 205 (at age 19); Derek Carr checked in at 6'2", 214 at age 21, which isn't a whole lot different. Weight won't be a significant factor in his NFL selection.

Have you done any actual research on that topic or are you just saying that because it's what you want to believe? It seems pretty clear to me that the league favors bigger QBs. And when you look around the NFL at the top guys, there aren't a lot of stringbeans. I don't think you have to be huge to throw a football, but IMO where it comes into play is when you get a 270 pound DE coming off the edge crunching your QB into the ground. Some guys can get up from that and some guys can't.

I'm not going to dig up every draft from the last fifteen years, but here are the first round QBs from the last five years along with their BMI score:

Tebow - 29.7

Ponder - 29.4

Newton - 29.4

Locker - 29.3

Manziel - 28.9

Luck - 28.5

Bradford - 28.5

Manuel - 28.5

Griffin - 28.3

Gabbert - 28.2

Bortles - 27.5

Bridgewater - 27.4

Weeden - 27.3

Tannehill - 27.0

That's a pretty narrow range of body types. All between 27.0-30.0. You cited Derek Carr as an example. Based on his combine height/weight, I have him at 27.2. Below average, but still within the range above.

Goff is listed at 6'4" 210 on the Cal website, which would put him at 25.6. Well below even the leanest QB of the 14 guys to go in the first round in the last five years. So I'll stand by what I said. Right now he's way too skinny to tempt teams at the top of the draft. He needs to live in weight room and eat like an elephant.

Tom Brady is an example of a guy who was a beanpole in college and eventually got big enough to take the beating in the NFL. It isn't unprecedented, but I always feel better gambling on a player when I don't have to project radical growth and development than when I do. It's just another layer of risk.

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Also worth pointing out that within that same time period we've had CJ Spiller (27.6 BMI) and Trent Richardson (33.6 BMI) as the leanest and thickest RBs picked in the first round respectively. The difference between the two players is 6 points. More than TWICE the spread seen at QB in the same time period (6.0 vs. 2.7). What all of this suggests is that, contrary to what you implied, weight and body thickness are actually MUCH MORE important at QB than at RB.

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Devys already owned: Treadwell, Henry, Dupre, Fournette, Tyner.

Guy is trying to get one of Dez, Julio, Gordon, or Watkins, and he has Devy Picks #1, 2, 4, 5, 6.

Would any combo of those picks be enough to move one of Julio/Dez? What about Gordon/Watkins?

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That's a pretty narrow range of body types. All between 27.0-30.0. You cited Derek Carr as an example. Based on his combine height/weight, I have him at 27.2. Below average, but still within the range above.

Goff is listed at 6'4" 210 on the Cal website, which would put him at 25.6. Well below even the leanest QB of the 14 guys to go in the first round in the last five years. So I'll stand by what I said. Right now he's way too skinny to tempt teams at the top of the draft. He needs to live in weight room and eat like an elephant.

Didn't you get burned badly enough trying to use BMI to rate prospects already? How's that diss of Desean Jackson going?

The guy just turned 20; his weight on the Cal web site was probably taken when he was 19. To get to your magical 27.0 BMI, that means he needs to gain 12 pounds from when he's 19 to when he's 21 or 22.

Didn't we all?

If he can make the reads and the throws he will be drafted at QB, no matter what his BMI is.

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Also worth pointing out that within that same time period we've had CJ Spiller (27.6 BMI) and Trent Richardson (33.6 BMI) as the leanest and thickest RBs picked in the first round respectively. The difference between the two players is 6 points. More than TWICE the spread seen at QB in the same time period (6.0 vs. 2.7). What all of this suggests is that, contrary to what you implied, weight and body thickness are actually MUCH MORE important at QB than at RB.

You're curve-fitting based on 14 data points. And you're also missing (as you did the last time we had this discussion) the nature of the sampling pool. How many QB prospects at the combine had BMIs significantly lower or higher than your range? The answer is: Not many. So you have a major sampling bias. It's like in the FBG contest, concluding that 18-man rosters are the best because there's more of them left than any other size, when almost half of the original entries had 18-man rosters.

It's absurd to make a statistical conclusion based on body size from that sampling. Players are individuals and they'll be assessed and successful based on their own qualities, not based on whether their body is close to the same size as Blaine Gabbert or Ryan Tannehill.

Edited by CalBear

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Devys already owned: Treadwell, Henry, Dupre, Fournette, Tyner.

Guy is trying to get one of Dez, Julio, Gordon, or Watkins, and he has Devy Picks #1, 2, 4, 5, 6.

Would any combo of those picks be enough to move one of Julio/Dez? What about Gordon/Watkins?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showforum=12

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Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.

That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well.

In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet.

I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag.

I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares.

Hackenberg doesn't look much different statistically than these two guys I've compared him to. Can you tell which one he is? These numbers are after their Sophomore seasons.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3V0yJsCAAACMPD.jpg

One of them went #1 overall and the other went #11.

I'd guess he's the one with the ####ty stats but all of them have ####ty stats.

Hack is A. The other 2 are Cutler and Stafford.

Ironically, in an Alanis Morrisette way, Cutler is his "QB Hero".

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You're curve-fitting based on 14 data points. And you're also missing (as you did the last time we had this discussion) the nature of the sampling pool. How many QB prospects at the combine had BMIs significantly lower or higher than your range? The answer is: Not many. So you have a major sampling bias. It's like in the FBG contest, concluding that 18-man rosters are the best because there's more of them left than any other size, when almost half of the original entries had 18-man rosters.

It's absurd to make a statistical conclusion based on body size from that sampling. Players are individuals and they'll be assessed and successful based on their own qualities, not based on whether their body is close to the same size as Blaine Gabbert or Ryan Tannehill.

That's one way to look at it. The other is that there have been hundreds of quarterbacks to come through the college ranks in the last 10+ years and the NFL hasn't seen fit to spend a first round pick on anyone outside a very narrow range of body types. You can find examples of skinny RBs who went high in the draft during that period (i.e. Spiller or CJ2K) or smurfy WRs (i.e. Brandin Cooks or Tavon Austin), but the NFL's front offices haven't shown any interest in spending premium picks on skinny QBs. They seem to have a very clear preference for bigger QBs. In fact, they seem much more discriminating of body type at this position compared with RB and WR. If anything, physique is MORE important for a QB than for those other positions.

I think your argument is pretty flimsy. Almost like someone saying that even though no point guard below 5'10" has been drafted in the NBA's lottery in the last decade, height isn't an important consideration for NBA teams evaluating point guards. How many point guards have been drafted in the lottery in the last 10 years? I don't really know. Maybe 25-30? That's a small sample size, but not really when you think about it. In that time there have been dozens and dozens of good, but undersized point guards who were passed over. Why? Because NBA teams don't draft point guards below 5'10" in the lottery. Just like how NFL teams don't draft skinny QBs in the first round. They've had plenty of opportunities to do so. They just haven't done it. Why? Because they don't think someone with that body type can fulfill the job requirements.

Since you want to bring up the past, let's remember the last time you planted your flag in the ground about a Pac-12 QB: ***Official*** Andrew Luck is overrated thread. I would say you were thinking with your heart and not your brain in that case. It seems like you're doing the same thing here. You're a Cal fan and Goff is a good player for Cal, but I think you're overlooking a pretty legitimate concern here.

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Let me preface this by saying that I know guys always emerge, etc.

But is it just me, or does it seem like college football is kind of sucked dry of studly talent right now after this 2015 class? There are very few players I'd feel excited about owning in devy leagues who aren't coming out (probably) in 2015.

Literally, right now this is the list of guys across all classes (no particular order) that I'd feel really good about owning (and I know, it's a crap shoot, etc.):

Laquon Treadwell

Nick Chubb

Derrick Henry

Three players, that's it. And even in 1-round devy leagues, at least two of those guys are almost guaranteed to be owned already (Treadwell and Henry).

There are other guys well worth owning who are flashing real talent, and we all know most of the big names. Personally, I really like De'Runnya Wilson. I like Alex Collins. I like some of the freshman RB's and a couple more WR's. But I'm talking about guys I'm really excited to hold for 1-3 more years, guys that I'm confident in that I'd value over your average mid-late 1st round rookie pick because I believe they're a potential future top-3 rookie pick. Guys like, recently, Watkins/Cooper/Gurley/Gordon and even the "busts" of course like Marquise Lee once upon a time.

I know we all have our favorites, etc. I know, again, that guys always emerge.

But it feels like this year more than the past few years, fewer truly valuable devy prospects emerged. Fewer dominant freshman seasons, fewer 5* hype machines taking off.

Maybe it's just me, maybe I've been too focused on the 2014 and 2015 draft classes the last couple years in a 1-round devy league.

But there just aren't a ton of potential stud devy players out there that I'd be excited to draft right now. And that's added on top of the fact that it's already a crap shoot, all the time.

Edited by ConnSKINS26

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