EBF
Footballguy
I wrote about this recently. Last year there was ONE true freshman RB to eclipse the 1000+ yard rushing barrier (Alex Collins). As of a couple weeks ago, SEVEN backs have already accomplished the feat this season: Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Samaje Perine, Jarvion Franklin, Marlon Mack, Nick Wilson, and Justin Jackson. I'm not going to say all these guys are great prospects because they're not, but IMO this is a bumper crop of freshmen RBs, headlined by Chubb, Freeman, and Perine. That's without getting into backs like Demario Richard, Dalvin Cook, and Stanley Williams who have also done some good things.I know we all have our favorites, etc. I know, again, that guys always emerge.
But it feels like this year more than the past few years, fewer truly valuable devy prospects emerged. Fewer dominant freshman seasons, fewer 5* hype machines taking off.
Maybe it's just me, maybe I've been too focused on the 2014 and 2015 draft classes the last couple years in a 1-round devy league.
But there just isn't a ton of potential stud devy players out there that I'd be excited to draft right now. And that's added on top of the fact that it's already a crap shoot, all the time.
The 2016 class doesn't look quite as strong, but Alex Collins and Kareem Hunt have been solid. Others like Ezekiel Elliott, Thomas Tyner, Corey Clement, and Greg Bryant have the potential to become decent prospects. I wouldn't rate any as top 60 NFL draft picks right now.
2016 has a couple of good TEs in Hunter Henry and Bucky Hodges. Where I'm struggling to find awesome talent in 2016 and 2017 is at WR. I think it's pretty thin there. You've got a handful of interesting prospects like Laquon Treadwell and Speedy Noil. Then what? Some names like Pharoh Cooper, Rashard Higgins, and Artavis Scott. Interesting prospects, but not guys I'd really go to bat for right now.
Ultimately though, I don't see a drought. I've been doing devy drafts for years and it's pretty typical to have a tier of 3-5 likely top 40 NFL draft picks followed by a tier of "maybes." If there are maybe 5-6 first round RB/WR total in an average draft class, I'd say maybe 2-3 of those guys will usually be identified as solid first round prospects prior to their final college season. That means you have 2-3 strong picks at the top of a typical dev draft, in addition to maybe 1-2 "false positives" like Woods/K Allen/Seastrunk/Lee who are initially overrated and eventually see their stock slide. This year is consistent with that. In a devy draft where everyone is available, you'd probably see Chubb, Perine, Freeman, and maybe Treadwell in the top 5-6 picks. Then a big cluster of maybes. Some of those maybes will become Jeff Fuller and Brandon Coleman. Others will become Mike Evans and Doug Martin.
I don't think the pool lacks talent though. I have some mid-late devy picks this year and I anticipate having some good options. Elite locks? No, but you really can't expect that outside the first 2-3 picks, if that.
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