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Dynasty: NON-Draft eligible College prospects

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ESPN's Todd McShay has been "really impressed" with Texas A&M freshman RB Trayveon Williams's "raw ability, particularly his burst and top-end speed."

 

Williams logged a career-high 217 yards and one touchdown in Saturday's crucial overtime win over Tennessee. Williams is up to a ridiculous 8.6 yards per carry. In addition, he's ripped off runs of 42, 49, 73 and 89 yards thus far. Overall, he has rushed for 703 yards and five touchdowns.
 
 
Source: ESPN 
Oct 12 - 3:33 PM

 

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LSU sophomore RB Derrius Guice is expected to start for injured junior RB Leonard Fournette in Saturday's game against Southern Miss.

 

This'll be the second straight game that he's done so; and if the Florida game had been played as scheduled, this would be the third straight contest in which he's filled-in. Fortunately for the Tigers, Guice is an absolute stud, perhaps one of the nation's 20-best runners. In his other start this year, against Mizzou, Guice lit up the opposing Tigers for 163 yards and three touchdowns on only 17 carries. Guice actually leads LSU in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Southern Miss plays D-optional football, so fantasy owners are going to want to start Guice.
 
 
Source: SEC Country 
Oct 12 - 3:15 PM

 

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On October 8, 2016 at 0:38 PM, DexterDew said:

Deon Cain is out of the dog house and starting to make plays. Just turned 20 (8/9/96) and has 4 TDs the past two weeks.

For the year 6 TDs on 13 catches, and career of 11 TDs on 47 catches.  Be curious what he will do with (supposedly) more looks next year with Williams and Scott likely gone.

[for comparison's sake, Martavis Bryant had 13 TDs on 61 catches in 37 games]

Any other Soph WRs that should be on my radar besides Christian Kirk?

This year up to 22/449/8.

13 TDs on 56 catches for his career. 

My #1 Sophmore WR

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Barkley/Guice/Chubb/Mixon with some guys like Hood, Ballage, Freeman, Ronald, Scarbrough, Michel too.. it is going to be another really good group of RBs.

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On 10/1/2016 at 9:07 PM, Xue said:

A few good Freshmen RBs this year that weren't highly regarded recruits: Joshua Jacobs, Trayveon Williams, Brian Herrien.

Jacobs reminds me a lot of Trent Richardson (when he was good in college). Looks to be the same height, 5'9", very stocky build with quick feet, breaks tackles.  I think Saban is going to ride him as he looks to be a better "feature" RB than Harris.  Harris has great speed and quickness but doesn't seem to run "tough" like Jacobs.

Took Jacobs with the 1.13 pick in my first dev draft of the year.

I haven't followed CFB closely this year, so had some catching up to do on the players available. Outside the obvious guys who are already rostered from last year, I didn't find much to get excited about.

Jacobs is one who caught my eye though. Noticed him from his cameo in the Clemson game and then found some highlights more recently. I can see the Richardson comparison. He also reminds me of Jonathan Williams a bit with his quick feet. Very fluid cuts and lateral movement. I don't see the speed of a future first round pick, but he looks like a solid 2nd-3rd round guy and could get better. We'll have to see what type of role he'll have there with Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris, and Najee Harris as competition. Bo will be the banger. Damien is the home run threat. Jacobs could the best all-around back. I know Najee's reputation, but I wasn't blown away by what I saw when I took a very quick glance at his highlights.

Anyway, Jacobs did well as a freshman and the recent history of Alabama RBs speaks for itself.

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Elijah Holyfield barely played, but he's still my #1 RB for 2019.

I currently have Sewo Olonilua (TCU) as my #2.  He's 6'3" 225 lbs with really good speed and movement skills. He's Najee Harris before Najee Harris.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAheeHgZ4XM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umuo23KNuZw

https://www.instagram.com/p/BPTgp4CDtHr

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXa-RqB7Rc8

https://twitter.com/WurthDraft/status/801785106860015616

 

Damarea Crockett is a guy who looks like a legit NFL talent. I don't think he's going to be on that elite, first tier, but he's got some good cuts and burst. A big year is in store.

 

With Jeremy McNichols leaving for the NFL, Alexander Mattison is going to blow up.  He's a legit talent as should be talked about with the Power 5 RBs.

 

I have Cam Akers 40-yard dash from the Opening at 4.43 with a 1.63 10-yard split.  That's a great 40 time considering how bad his 10-yard split is.  He's NFL-ready today.

 

Travis Etienne (Clemson, FR) ran a 4.40 with a 1.60 at the Opening.  He has some Alvin Kamara in him.

 

Ty Chandler has some Ronald Jones and Dalvin Cook in his game.  This run right here is very similar to a few of Cooks' with the ability to maintain speed with sharp cuts: https://twitter.com/ChadCarson247/status/784565979758157826

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Sewo Olonilua hang cleaning 440 lbs: https://twitter.com/SOlonilua33/status/836986254038294528

Sewo listed at 225 lbs. By comparison, Brandon Scherff did 443 and weighs 300+.

 

Here he is doing footwork and receiving drills this off-season: https://twitter.com/lifesyourcup/status/836071444673024002

Edited by Xue

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Michigan freshman WR Donovan Peoples-Jones ran the 40-yard dash in 4.41 seconds during the Wolverines' spring combine.

Yowza. Peoples-Jones was a five-star recruit for the 2017 cycle and is already turning heads with his electric athleticism. That 4.41-second 40-yard dash led all UM wideouts in the team's little spring combine, as did his vertical leap of 39 inches and his broad jump of 11 feet. Michigan's passing offense proved sketchy at times last season, but help is on the way. They brought in a slew of highly regarded receiver recruits -- with Peoples-Jones the jewel in that crown --on National Signing Day, plus a four-star quarterback in Dylan McCaffrey. Those baby Wolverines could pay almost immediate dividends in 2017. Rob Cassidy of Rivals views the 6-foot-2, 190-pound Peoples-Jones as a potential elite performer right out of the gate.
 

 

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If you're looking for a devy guy who's probably not on many people's radars, imo WR Collin Johnson from Texas has a good shot at being a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2019 or 2020. He's off the radar because he missed his senior year of high school with a shoulder injury (was a top-50ish recruit before he missed the season) and had a somewhat quiet true freshman year on a bad Texas team (28/315/3). He's got size (6'6 and now up to 220), NFL body control and ball skills (see some of the catches on the linked video) and NFL bloodlines and work ethic. He reminds me of DGB in college- though not as fast- and he's got none of DGB's attitude issues. He's been described as the best WR on the team this offseason going into his true soph year, and that's with the WR corps being arguably the most talented unit on the team. A name to stow away. 

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On 3/18/2017 at 9:26 PM, Redmen62 said:

If you're looking for a devy guy who's probably not on many people's radars, imo WR Collin Johnson from Texas has a good shot at being a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2019 or 2020. He's off the radar because he missed his senior year of high school with a shoulder injury (was a top-50ish recruit before he missed the season) and had a somewhat quiet true freshman year on a bad Texas team (28/315/3). He's got size (6'6 and now up to 220), NFL body control and ball skills (see some of the catches on the linked video) and NFL bloodlines and work ethic. He reminds me of DGB in college- though not as fast- and he's got none of DGB's attitude issues. He's been described as the best WR on the team this offseason going into his true soph year, and that's with the WR corps being arguably the most talented unit on the team. A name to stow away. 

I like him a lot as well. I had him as my 3rd-highest ranked incoming freshman last spring and #54 overall:

 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=hinderydevyrankings0416

Edit to add: Watch out for Trevon Grimes as a similar player in class of 2017. He fell in the recruiting rankings because he tore his ACL in September and isn't getting as much hype due to that, but he's a monster with ideal NFL measurables and great work ethic.

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A few devy random devy thoughts as I finish preparing for my first 2 devy drafts of the season this weekend:

1. I love the incoming freshman class at RB and WR. It especially stands out since last year's freshman class was so bad. My top incoming freshman last year I ranked 39th overall. I'll probably have 7 or 8 guys in my top 35 this year and maybe as many as 5 in the top 20. Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, Najee Harris, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jerry Jeudy and Trevon Grimes will definitely rank highly for me. It depends on how deep your rosters/taxi squads are and if you're willing to wait, but I think in the long run you'll come out way ahead by investing picks in these top freshman. And even if you don't want to wait out the 3 years of their college careers, you can always cash in with a trade next year if any of them blow up for big freshman seasons. 

2. I would "overpay" for Saquon Barkley. He's obviously going to be tough to get, but I think even offers that look like overpays now will end up being worth it at this time next year. I had him ranked #3 in my top 100 last year ahead of JuJu, Dalvin, McCaffrey, etc. and because of that have a lot of shares already, but I've continued to try to add more. I moved Julio and Brees for Barkley and Watkins last month for example. And Barkley was the main target. I think he'll actually be worth more than Julio straight up within a year. I'm curious exactly what his market value is, but I like him more than guys like Allen Robinson and I think you can still get Barkley plus a pick for guys like ARob.

3. Weaker at the top than normal. Derrius Guice is really, really good too but I think there's a real drop off after those two. There are some solid guys like Courtland Sutton, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Deon Cain, James Washington, etc. in that next tier. But it's not as loaded as last year where I felt great about all of the top 7 guys and pretty good about the top 25. The weaker than normal recruiting class of 2016 is a big reason why I think the depth up top isn't as strong.

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If Chubb gets to 100% and Barkley/Guice don't fall off, next year may have three guys who would be worthy of 1.01 consideration this year. Could be a nice group. Lots of variables though.

2017 draft looks great for FF purposes, albeit not as top-heavy as it looked a year ago. Think there's going to be value at every level.

 

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These are the returning-to-school guys that my formulas like. Note that my formulas are designed for incoming NFL players rather than for guys in the middle of their college career, and will especially miss out on guys who were stuck in a smaller role behind talented upperclassmen (and guys whose measurables are estimated inaccurately by nfldraftscout). Each list goes from highest rated to lowest rated in that category. Some of these guys won't be draft eligible in 2018.

Top RB prospects: Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Saquon Barkley

Decent RB prospects: Rashaad Penny, Ty Johnson, Mike Weber, Ray Lawry, Kerryon Johnson, Damarea Crockett, James Butler, Lavon Coleman, Damien Harris, Benjamin Snell Jr., Rawleigh Williams III, Jarvion Franklin, Kalen Ballage, Phillip Lindsay, Ito Smith, Bo Scarbrough, Kyle Hicks

Top WR prospects: Courtland Sutton, Equanimeous St. Brown

Decent WR prospects: Cody Thompson, James Washington, Jester Weah, Nick Westbrook, Jonathan Giles, Anthony Miller, Michael Gallup, Richie James, Cedrick Wilson, Darren Carrington

Top QB prospects: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Logan Woodside

Decent QB prospects: Mike White, Jake Browning, Deondre Francois, Mason Rudolph, Austin Allen, Brett Rypien, Lamar Jackson

The top prospects at each position would rate as good prospects (or better) if they were entering the draft right now. The top QBs already rate ahead of any of the QBs in this year's class (though the QB ratings are only based on production, not measurables or scouting, and needs to be supplemented with other info moreso than at other positions). The top RBs are already up there near the RBs entering this year's draft, though they're still a bit below. The top WRs are farther behind this year's top prospects, more in the range of what I'd expect to see from 2nd or 3rd rounders. The bottom of the "decent" tier for each position is more like "just worth keeping on eye on"; their ratings aren't high enough to be be very promising if they were entering the draft right now.

On the whole, things for 2018 look worse than they did a year ago for 2017. The WRs don't have an elite prospect (the way that JuJu Smith-Schuster looked to be a year ago) and the top 4 RBs don't look quite as good as last year's top 4 did at this time (Chubb, Fournette, Freeman, Cook).

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2 minutes ago, ZWK said:

These are the returning-to-school guys that my formulas like. Note that my formulas are designed for incoming NFL players rather than for guys in the middle of their college career, and will especially miss out on guys who were stuck in a smaller role behind talented upperclassmen (and guys whose measurables are estimated inaccurately by nfldraftscout). Each list goes from highest rated to lowest rated in that category. Some of these guys won't be draft eligible in 2018.

Top RB prospects: Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Saquon Barkley

Decent RB prospects: Rashaad Penny, Ty Johnson, Mike Weber, Ray Lawry, Kerryon Johnson, Damarea Crockett, James Butler, Lavon Coleman, Damien Harris, Benjamin Snell Jr., Rawleigh Williams III, Jarvion Franklin, Kalen Ballage, Phillip Lindsay, Ito Smith, Bo Scarbrough, Kyle Hicks

Top WR prospects: Courtland Sutton, Equanimeous St. Brown

Decent WR prospects: Cody Thompson, James Washington, Jester Weah, Nick Westbrook, Jonathan Giles, Anthony Miller, Michael Gallup, Richie James, Cedrick Wilson, Darren Carrington

Top QB prospects: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Logan Woodside

Decent QB prospects: Mike White, Jake Browning, Deondre Francois, Mason Rudolph, Austin Allen, Brett Rypien, Lamar Jackson

The top prospects at each position would rate as good prospects (or better) if they were entering the draft right now. The top QBs already rate ahead of any of the QBs in this year's class (though the QB ratings are only based on production, not measurables or scouting, and needs to be supplemented with other info moreso than at other positions). The top RBs are already up there near the RBs entering this year's draft, though they're still a bit below. The top WRs are farther behind this year's top prospects, more in the range of what I'd expect to see from 2nd or 3rd rounders. The bottom of the "decent" tier for each position is more like "just worth keeping on eye on"; their ratings aren't high enough to be be very promising if they were entering the draft right now.

On the whole, things for 2018 look worse than they did a year ago for 2017. The WRs don't have an elite prospect (the way that JuJu Smith-Schuster looked to be a year ago) and the top 4 RBs don't look quite as good as last year's top 4 did at this time (Chubb, Fournette, Freeman, Cook).

No Deon Cain for you?

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8 minutes ago, ZWK said:

On the whole, things for 2018 look worse than they did a year ago for 2017. The WRs don't have an elite prospect (the way that JuJu Smith-Schuster looked to be a year ago) and the top 4 RBs don't look quite as good as last year's top 4 did at this time (Chubb, Fournette, Freeman, Cook).

Interesting since Chubb and Freeman are in both classes, and Fournette and Cook vs. Barkley and Guice looks to be at worst even and perhaps slanted toward the 2018 guys.  Even Sutton seems to be pretty close to JJSS.

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41 minutes ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

No Deon Cain for you?

It's mostly based on production. Cain had only 724 receiving yards (109th most in college football) in 15 games. He might be one of the cases where my method will "miss out on guys who were stuck in a smaller role behind talented upperclassmen."

32 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Interesting since Chubb and Freeman are in both classes, and Fournette and Cook vs. Barkley and Guice looks to be at worst even and perhaps slanted toward the 2018 guys.  Even Sutton seems to be pretty close to JJSS.

Chubb and Freeman were both a lot less effective in 2016 than in 2014-15, so both of their ratings have dropped. Guice and Barkley are rated near where Chubb & Freeman are currently rated, rather than near where Chubb & Freeman were rated a year ago. Here's how these RBs compare on one simple rushing efficiency stat, First Downs + Touchdowns + 20-Yard Carries per Attempt:

.48 Guice 2015-16
.44 Chubb 2014-15
.44 Cook 2014-15
.40 Freeman 2014-15
.39 Fournette 2014-15
.37 Barkley 2015-16
.36 average
.35 Freeman 2016
.33 Chubb 2016

(Guice has had a much smaller workload than the others, which holds him back.)

Comparing JuJu Smith-Schuster a year ago to Courtland Sutton now, JJSS was about 2 years younger, he was estimated by nfldraftscout to be bigger and faster, and he was a bit more productive (e.g., 10.3 YPT vs. 9.6 YPT, 3.1 Yd/TmAtt vs. 2.7 Yd/TmAtt). Those edges add up

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Always interesting to revisit the old posts in this thread to see how things change.

Saw this about Kirk Merritt today (guy I drafted in a couple leagues out of HS) and had to laugh:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/college/texas-m-dumps-wide-receiver-accused-exposing-tutors-article-1.3107623

Meanwhile former phenoms Speedy Noil and KD Cannon went undrafted this weekend after leaving school early, while Mr. All-Everything Malachi Dupre barely snuck into the 7th round after leaving LSU early. Shows you the perils of picking high school kids in dev leagues, and also makes you wonder if all the recruitnik puffery these kids experience before arriving on a college campus inflates their egos too much. Stars in their own mind. Time to meet reality.

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I have the same issue with picking Frosh after one year. Unless there is some production, then you're are basing the value on how many stars they got out of HS a year earlier. For example, I took Harry over Metcalf because the former actually was productive as a true Frosh.

With Sophs, at least the hold isn't as (potentially) long.

 

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ESPN's Joel Anderson writes that Alabama sophomore RB Najee Harris will be a breakout star for the Crimson Tide in 2018.

Harris didn't put up huge numbers in 2017 -- 370 yards and three touchdowns -- but the 6-foot-2, 220-pound running back showed flashes playing behind Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris, and ran for 64 yards on six carries in the National Championship Game. "When you hand him the ball, you can see the talent," said Tom Luginbill, ESPN's national recruiting director. "As far as being a runner, he's an Adrian Peterson [in college] type of player. His talent as a running back is as high as anyone there in Tuscaloosa." He'll be behind Harris again, but the "other" Harris should get significantly more touches in 2018. It's tough to imagine he won't be a star in the next couple of seasons.

Source: ESPN

Feb 10 - 5:19 PM

 

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Multiple outlets are reporting that USC sophomore RB Stephen Carr (back) will miss spring practice.

Carr (6'0/180) is set to take over as Trojans lead back in the wake of Ronald Jones' exit for the draft, but due to a herniated disc in his back, USC will have to lean on Vavae Malepeai and Aca’Cedric Ware in practice while he mends. There is no timetable for Carr's return to action at this juncture. As a true freshman, he rushed for 363 yards (5.6 YPC) and three touchdowns while adding another 188 yards on 17 receptions. He flashed on multiple occasions, but also dealt with a nagging foot injury which forced him to miss four games. USC boots up spring practice on March 6.

Source: 247Sports

 

He is part of a very strong Frosh class of RBs, and for those in the beginning/middle of Devy draft season, this news is fairly important.

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We just finished up a 14 team, one round devy draft. Lots of jockeying and trading in and out of the draft.

1 Dobbins Ohio St RB

2 Taylor Wisc RB

3 AJ Brown Ole Miss WR

4 Love Stanford RB

5 Swift GA RB

6 Montgomery Iowa St RB

7 Richards MIA WR

8 Harmon NC St WR

9 Edwards So CAR WR

10 Anderson OK RB

11 Sermon OK RB

12 Crocket Mizz RB

13 Marshall LSU WR

14 Shorter Penn St WR

I had 9 and 11. 9 was an easy pick, 11 I thought of White, Carr, Ausbon, and Ettiene... maybe next year

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On 2/14/2017 at 2:29 AM, Xue said:

Travis Etienne (Clemson, FR) ran a 4.40 with a 1.60 at the Opening.  He has some Alvin Kamara in him.

Looks faster than 4.4 from this vid where he kicks in another gear to blow past DBs with angles on him.

ACC Digital Network ‏

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#FlashbackFriday to @ClemsonFB running back Travis Etienne showing off his ridiculous speed on this 81-yard TD! #ALLIN (@swaggy_t1

6:26 AM - 27 Jul 2018

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Arizona State sophomore RB Eno Benjamin tied the Pro Football Focus college record for the most missed tackles forced on runs by a running back with 20 in Saturday's 52-14 win over Oregon State.

Benjamin had a game for the ages. The sophomore broke the Arizona State school record for rushing yards with 312 by averaging over ten yards per carry on 30 carries! According to Pro Football Focus, Benjamin totaled 11 first downs by having ten carries that went for at least ten yards. He was also able to score three rushing touchdowns, which was equal to the touchdown sum of his other 13 career games. What made this game even crazier was the effort by Oregon State RB Jermar Jefferson, who ran for 254 yards and a couple scores. PAC-12 after dark was full of fireworks last night.

Source: Pro Football Focus 

Sep 30 - 1:42 PM

 

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Travis Etienne - RB -  Tigers

Per Pro Football Focus, Clemson sophomore RB Travis Etienne had 133 yards after contact in Saturday's 27-23 win over Syracuse.

In addition to creating a ton of yards after contact, Etienne forced eight missed tackles and had 13 first downs or touchdowns. He was leaned upon heavily after QB Trevor Lawrence was forced from the game and essentially put the team on his back. This was Etienne's first 200-yard game of the season and he has now rushed for over 120 yards in three straight games. He should be in for another big workload against Wake Forest next week.

Source: Pro Football Focus on Twitter 

Sep 30 - 11:31 AM

 

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Alabama freshman WR Jaylen Waddle is the top-rated freshman through Week 6 according to Pro Football Focus.

Waddle takes the top spot from Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman, with a grade of 89.4 compared to Bowman's 87.6. Waddle (5'10/177) has been excellent in his first season with the Crimson Tide, catching 15 passes for 313 yards with two scores. There are a lot of quality options for Tua Tagovailoa to throw to in this offense, but Waddle clearly is among the best, and the future is incredibly bright.

Source: PFF College on Twitter 

Oct 10 - 12:39 PM

 

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According to Pro Football Focus, 130 of UAB sophomore RB Spencer Brown's 155 rushing yards in Saturday's 27-25 win over Middle Tennessee State came after contact.

That's 84% of his yards. Quite impressive, especially since he was returning from an injury. Not only did he earn his yards, but he earned a short two-yard touchdown to bring his touchdown count up to 16 on the season. The sophomore back has compiled 1,152 rushing yards in 13 games. UAB is sitting at 10-3, so a bowl game awaits Brown and the Blazers. He's among the best non-draft eligible running backs in the country.

Source: PFF College on Twitter 

Dec 2 - 9:19 AM

 

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Oklahoma State sophomore WR Tylan Wallace caught seven passes for 83 yards and one touchdown in Monday's 38-33 bowl win over Missouri.

Wallace (6'0/185) ends a huge 2018 season on a positive note, but there's a lot more in the tank for the sophomore. He was able to catch 86 passes for 1,481 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, averaging a team-high 9.8 yards per target. ESPN's Todd McShay called Wallace a "prospect on the rise" and we couldn't agree more. The Big 12 will have their hands full in 2019 trying to defend Wallace's crazy speed and contested-catch abilities. There's definitely Day 1 potential here.

Mon, Dec 31, 2018 08:36:00 PM

 

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An NFL scout told Bleacher Report's Matt Hayes that Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence could end up the best draft prospect of all time.

"With what he now knows, his physical ability at 19 years old, how he wants to be coached and wants to be great, his ceiling is limitless. He makes throws now that guys in our league can't make," the scout said. The evaluator also said that he was not being hyperbolic. Mercy. It's most certainly hyperbole, as much as we love what freshman phenom Lawrence has done this year. The groundswell of hype around the golden-armed signal-caller is just getting started. Beyond the above bit of early overstatement, we have already seen Lawrence comped to a more athletic Peyton Manning and called the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. The evaluating community had best pace themselves before they run out of oversized statements to make. Lawrence will not be draft-eligible until after the 2020 season.

Source: Bleacher Report 

Jan 7 - 1:29 PM

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