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Dynasty: NON-Draft eligible College prospects (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Xue
- Start date
- much better than the Green-Beckham hypeCooper is listed as 6'1/198 and Marqise Lee at 6'1/195 - they look and play similar size to me. Imagine they will both add some muscle as well but they seem plenty big.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Put him at left guard and run the fumblerooski; he doesn't look fast enough to play RB, even given his size.
Xue
Footballguy
If you guys want to follow an "industry" devy draft: http://ffoasis.com/leagues/RS/farm.phpHere is this year's farm draft in progress: http://ffoasis.com/RSTracker.php
FYI - 2012 draft was conducted in August 2012 for frame of reference.
Thank you for the link. I do have to say, after being part of a few devy leagues/drafts, that I probably prefer the limitation on how 'young' you can draft someone. Seems like much more of a crapshoot to be choosing incoming freshman and what-not.The leagues I'm in require you to be draft eligible the next year, and I hope this doesn't dilute the field in upcoming years (which it appears to have happened in the current draft in that link)
Xue
Footballguy
I think for their farm system, you have to go for the highest upside guys. They haven't done their "rookie" or NFL draft yet, so those guys are still available. The way I see it you get some of the underclassmen early and the guys who eventually pan out will be there in the "rookie" draft. The farm draft is 6 rounds a year. That's pretty deep. They had 10 rounds last year.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Maybe I don't fully understand their rules, but a lot of those drafters have made some bone-headed picks imo either way. So is it an NFL dynasty pool or a NCAA dynasty pool? If it's a NFL dynasty pool, picking players who haven't even touched a NCAA football field yet and are at best 3 years away from the NFL over someone like Mike Evans who has already dominated the SEC and is perhaps only 1 year away from the NFL, is crazy. If it's a NCAA dynasty pool, drafting Jordan Matthews with the 1.01 is really dumb given they'll only have him for 1 season.
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All drafts done as an NFL dynasty pool (ultimately). It's a super-hyped developmental league.Year 1 (2012) - 10 Round Farm Draft (NCAA players only)Year 2 (2013)- 6 Round Farm Draft (NCAA players only) - Current draftYear 2 (2013) - 4 Round Rookie draft (2013 NFL draft rookies only and those who weren't selected in 10 round initial farm draft)Year 2 (2013) - 40 Round "startup" draft with remaining pool of NFL playersYear 3+ (2014+) - 6 Round Farm and 4 Round Rookie draft every yearYear 2 is the first year that the teams compete against one another.
BruceAlmighty
Footballguy
If you are in a devy where you can draft any player I'd take Leonard Fournette. Best rb prospect since AD. 50+ offers as a freshman.
Xue
Footballguy
I've watched some of him. He reminds me a bit of Yeldon, without the funky running gait. He doesn't look as fast as Peterson.
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Xue
Footballguy
This about sums it up.But you have a point about the Matthews pick. I mean he doesn't have much upside compared to what's still available.
EBF
Footballguy
I think dev drafts are mainly about gambling on upside RBs. If there's a slam dunk WR or QB out there like Blackmon or Luck, obviously you have to take him. But QB/WR/TE will always be available in the rookie pool. Unless you finish really low and get the 1.01 or 1.02, the dev draft is really your only chance to get a premium RB talent. I'd much rather have a Thomas Tyner than a Jordan Matthews/Mike Evans/Odell Beckham/Cody Hoffman.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Based on what? Rivals had Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard as the 13th and 14th rated RBs in their recruiting class, and looking back at their RB rankings, their top 3/4 rbs have generally done pretty well of late, but the RBs ranked 5th through 10th are jam packed with busts. If your leaguemates are going to take all the top RB prospects that haven't even played a down of college football, that's all the more reason to take the WR/QB who have played and succeeded in college ball imo.'EBF said:
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Xue
Footballguy
I wouldn't take the rankings as gospel. You'd have to just watch tape on each recruit and just determine for yourself which guys really stands out. Some of these guys look overrated to me.I would look at other sites' rankings as well like http://247sports.com and http://scout.com
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EBF
Footballguy
Lacy and Bernard were both picked in most of my dev drafts last year. Just goes to prove the point. The year before, Trent and Wilson were picked in my leagues. Martin was picked in one of them as well.
Sometimes you will see a guy like Mathews emerge in one season from out of nowhere, but then you need a top 1-2 rookie pick to get him.
Roundhead
Footballguy
Interested on opinions regarding Malcolm Brown. Came out of high school as Rivals top rated running back and top five overall ranking in both Rivals and Scout. Had a decent freshmen year but last year suffered a high ankle sprain and missed five games. What's his potential NFL value? He may become part of a rbbc with Gray and Bergeron. Worth rostering? Thoughts?
EBF
Footballguy
He doesn't look all that amazing to me. You can see why he was a big time recruit. He's got some power, decent feet and hips, and some burst. But to become a starter in the NFL you generally have to be pretty special. At best I see this guy becoming another Daniel Thomas. At worst he's a late rounder or UDFA. If you're in a deep league, you could take a punt on him. In a typical 1-2 round dev draft, I would look elsewhere.
Xue
Footballguy
He's big, strong, with some speed. In the mold of a Mendenhall or Christine Michael. I've been a little more impressed with Bergeron than the other two. Gray reminds me of Mike Gillislee. Don't think he's special.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Not totally relevant to this topic, but look for this kid in the 2019 NFL draft. Best freshman in high school QB highlights I've ever seen. Kid already has some nice college offers ( Florida).http://www.hudl.com/athlete/1629052/highlights/35267444More and more, I'm starting to think that in 5 or 10 years the QB position in fantasy football will be dominated almost entirely by dual threat guys who put up at least 30 rushing yards a game and regularly score TDs on the ground. Too many good prospects are on their way to the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
My top 10 RBs and WRs:1. Thomas Tyner, Oregon2. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor3. Todd Gurley, Georgia4. TJ Yeldon, Alabama5. Michael Dyer, ex-Auburn6. Jeremy Hill, LSU7. Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona8. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska9. Branden Oliver, Buffalo10. Isaiah Crowell, Alabama StateSleepers: Jela Duncan, Duke; Imani Cross, Nebraska; David Fluellen, ToledoNot trying to be controversial with the Tyner pick. Just genuinely believe he has the most talent. For all the talk about that Gurley/Yeldon/Seastrunk/Hill cluster, I really don't see a slam dunk lock prospect in that group. They all have good qualities. I think they also have flaws and question marks. I had the 1.02 dev pick in one league and traded it away in part because none of these backs has me completely sold yet. Maybe that changes during or after next season. Dyer in 2010 looked like a first round pick. In 2011 he wasn't quite as impressive. The talent is there to be a top prospect. Dedication is a question mark. Let's see where he ends up next season. Carey has good feet. Just average size and speed. Not sure his skills will translate. Abdullah is also a bit of a 'tweener. Oliver is really short, but the best cutter in this group. Crowell another head case with top 100 talent. 1. Marqise Lee, USC2. Stefon Diggs, Maryland3. Amari Cooper, Alabama4. Sammy Watkins, Clemson5. Allen Robinson, Penn State6. Odell Beckham, LSU7. Brandon Coleman, Rutgers8. Cody Hoffman, BYU9. Jalen Saunders, Oklahoma10. Kenny Bell, NebraskaSleepers: Deontay Greenberry, Houston; Ty Montgomery, Stanford; Kenneth Scott, UtahReally like Lee and Diggs. They are actually similar in terms of build and skill set. Not quite as high on Cooper and Watkins as most, but they have plenty of talent. I think there's a big dropoff after that top 4. Allen Robinson has the height, range, body control, and hands. Main question with him would be speed and burst. Beckham is the opposite. Very quick and explosive. Below average height and inconsistent hands. Coleman has a high ceiling, but also looks to be a bust risk. Receivers that tall usually aren't great route runners. In a best case scenario he could be the next Plax, but I'm not convinced yet.
I've seen every game these three players have played in college, and I don't think Bergeron is an NFL RB, much less the best prospect of the three. He's a big back without top end speed and despite his massive TD numbers, he's not a great short-yardage runner.Malcolm isn't as special an athlete as his recruiting pedigree might have indicated, but he's got a build that could translate to the NFL, good power, decent speed and good vision. He's been nicked up a lot, and still needs to get into the weight room.Gray is still a bit of a wild card; he's explosive but didn't have a lot of power as a true freshman and his vision is sometimes questionable. He likely has the highest ceiling.'Xue said:
Xue
Footballguy
You seem to have mostly 2014 guys on both lists. If you're going to include 2013 HS recruits, I'd put Alex Collins and Kelvin Taylor in the top ten. I mean if you're this high on Isaiah Crowell, you should love Alex Collins just as much. He's essentially a Crowell clone with a chance to be a Marshawn Lynch-type with his natural strength and power.As for the WR list, I'd drop Coleman, Saunders and Bell. I'd squeeze in Sean Price, Quinshad Davis, Davante Adams, and some 2012/2013 recruit like Jaquay Williams, Laquon Treadwell, Marquez North, etc.'EBF said:
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EBF
Footballguy
I thought about putting someone like Derrick Green on there, but in general I'm not about hyping up high school kids. Massive bust rate. Even a lot of the 4-5 star guys are just mediocre talents lighting it up against scrubs. When they get to the next level, the lack of standout qualities becomes apparent. I make an exception for Tyner because he's just such a freak athlete. Looks like a college upperclassmen already. 215 and running 10.35 in the hundred. That is the kind of a one-in-a-million stuff that you need for Sundays. Guys like Taylor and Collins have a lot of talent and maybe someday they'll be elite pro prospects, but with them it's more of a projection because they don't come ready made with next level physical tools.
I think that's exactly what you're doing, shock factor, or whatever you want to call it. Be consistent.Here's a post in FBG's after our initial startup draft:'EBF said:
You say "Even if DGB ends up being the next Calvin(elite player) it will be four years before he plays a game for this FF squad"So even if a player is going to become the next Calvin Johnson, you don't advise it in FF leagues BUT if it's Thomas Tyner and he becomes the next Richardson/AP you encourage people to get him. Which is it?'EBF said:
How are you defining modest price? Right now he's your #1 college RB over many players that have accomplished something on the NCAA level. This doesn't sound like a cheap alternative.I also find it interesting how some of your comments are contradicting regarding Cordarrelle Patterson vs Tyner:'EBF said:
Tyner, a player who has no production at the NCAA level, is being hyped by you; however Patterson who didn't produce enough results as a WR is being punished in your rankings. BUT Tyner is being hyped by you for his physical qualities; however Patterson "has some compelling physical qualities".If you really value production, shouldn't the Seastrunk/Gurley/Yeldon/Carey/Hill's of the world get boosted over a player that has no production.
Thomas Tyner is ranked the 6th best RB recruit by ESPN, Rivals has him as 2nd, Scout.com has him 2nd. None of them have him ranked as the #1 RB recruit, much less the top player or second coming of Richardson/AP. They obviously know more than us and you even said
It's not like you watched every game of the kid.I'm not saying Tyner is a bad prospect, he was on my radar, and he could turn out to be very good. What scares me is you ranking him so high, someone going off of that to draft him ahead of all the other RB's or players available, and it wrecking a FF team. That's not getting Tyner at "a modest price" as you indicated earlier.'EBF said:
i have to give EBF some props for putting his opinion out there and backing it up with his Devy pick... even going so far as to pick Tyner even though he is four years away. Maybe Tyner changed his opinion about waiting that long for a player? I don't see what he can possibly gain from a "shock factor"... maybe create some hype/buzz so that he can trade him? He certainly can't force any other owner to use a Devy pick on Tyner.And he is correct: one Devy pick that busts will not kill a team... and it is "modest price" when you consider the success rates of mid round Devy picks. Sure he could have taken Hill instead, but he made a conscious (not "conscience") choice and made he reasons for doing so publicly.the beauty of message boards is they are there for all to see. if the pick fails, someone will bump the thread for their "a ha!" moment. If it succeeds, maybe EBF bumps it... he will at least have Tyner rostered before anyone else in at least one league.
My concern is someone taking Tyner 1.1 in a devy draft over all of the RB's available and even the WR's(given his rankings). That's not a modest price.He can't force any other owner to use a devy pick? Whenever any posts rankings it becomes a resource, some may just go off of what others say. Hence me bringing it up, to create an awareness of not ranking Tyner as the #1 devy RB.
EBF
Footballguy
I've played in other leagues with a similar format that allow you to roster high school/freshmen/sophomore players. In a perfect world there would be a first round WR/RB talent eligible for the next draft who falls into your lap, but that's not always the case. Sometimes you have to take a younger player and wait a few years. It's what you sign up for when you decide to play in a league like this. The bottom line in the dev draft is to get the best player available. I've held guys like Andrew Luck, Marqise Lee, and Michael Dyer for multiple years in some of my leagues. It's worth the wait when they pop. Taking a step back, the four guys that I have the most confidence in right now who were available in this draft are Tyner, ASJ, Diggs, and Bridgewater. In most leagues I'm not going to take a QB or TE in the dev draft unless I'm completely sold that he's not just a first round talent, but actually a lock to become a star. I'm not quite that high on Teddy and ASJ, though I think they're solid assets and certain first round picks. That means it came down to Tyner vs. Diggs. I really like Diggs and I might live to regret passing on him, but Tyner is the one guy in this draft that I really had to have. It's not all about production. It's about a number of factors. Mainly what the player shows you on the field. Also positional scarcity. I can get a WR/TE/QB whenever I want one. I have the 1.06 rookie pick and it's quite possible that Geno/Ertz/Eifert will fall there. I'll also have the option of taking some pretty decent WR prospects like Williams, Wheaton, or Patton. On the flipside, the dev draft is really my only opportunity to get a potential first round type of RB without finishing near the bottom of the league or making a big trade for a top 1-2 rookie pick in a future season. That's what tipped the scales in favor of Tyner. From what I've seen of Tyner, he has a chance to step in and immediately be the best RB in the Pac-12 next season. I think he's a guy who would have been a lock 1.01-1.02 selection in next year's dev draft and has a chance to develop into that rare RB prospect who goes in the top 10 of the NFL draft. My assessment might ultimately be wrong, but if the evaluation is correct then I'll be thrilled with the pick long term. If you can get a phenom like Bush/Peterson/McFadden/Richardson, the 1.07 dev pick is indeed a very modest price to pay.
So it is EBF's prominence as a poster that will cause someone to take Tyner 1.1? Why not go with Xue's list or your list?I'm certain that most FF participants are discerning enough, especially those that participate in Dynasty leagues with Rookie and/or Devy drafts, to not put too much value in the rankings by an amateur (albeit a knowledgeable one) made on a free Message Board. And there is no way that EBF, Xue or tdmills are culpable on any level if their rankings ultimately are "incorrect" and someone was "forced" to draft from that list since they were ascribed a numerical ranking... they are simply arrows in the quiver of FF opinions.Now to say someone else's opinion and rankings are wrong is 100% subjective. The methodology can be questioned, but you can not tell me I'm wrong because I like Blind Pig more than Pliney the Elder. Same with liking Tyner over Hill... a choice made by EBFs own Free Will. I would not have made that pick, nor will i denounce EBF for making it (heck, i think i benefitted since Diggs and Bridgewater fell to me).
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This isn't about EBF's dynasty team, it's about your rankings and how volatile they appear. It's one thing to be excited about a prospect, but it's another to be wishy washy. It's okay to take a true freshman here, not there. It's okay to take a guy with no production here, it's not okay there. If Ameer Abdullah is a tweener, then why is he listed and someone like Kendrick Taylor/Greg Bryant/etc not inserted into the rankings ahead of them?EBF, you do some good things here, I just don't think ranking Thomas Tyner as RB1 is a "very modest price to pay." Not sure how you can spin it any other way.
I don't think we're completely off base here Dex. Should I not raise concerns about wishy washy posting? Should I not raise concerns about a volatile ranking? That's what we're here for and why we discuss topics. I think Tyner is a good prospect, but taking him 1.1 is a very unnecessary gamble. Do you disagree? I'm not debating taking Tyner over Diggs at 1.7 in our league, which I thought was a big reach. It did help you out and you made out like a bandit in our draft.
EBF
Footballguy
Ranking a player at X spot doesn't equate to paying X value for him. If I have Rueben Randle ranked as the #10 dynasty WR and I put him there in my rankings, that doesn't mean I'm telling people to go out and pay that price for him. I assume that people who follow dynasty rankings and participate in devy leagues have some basic understanding of where these players are expected to go. If you have a guy like Randle ranked as a top 20 dynasty WR, but you know that most people don't have him in their top 40, you can trade up to something like WR30 territory and still be pretty sure of getting him. This is basic stuff. Anyone who plays in dynasty leagues should understand this. The Tyner pick is actually a great example. I liked him, but I knew that there was almost no way he would go higher than 9-12 in the draft. I could have put together a big package and gotten a top 1-3 pick, but I didn't do that. I traded up just high enough to absolutely guarantee that I would get him. 1.07 is high for a guy who hasn't played a down of college football. On the flipside, 1.07 is low for a first round RB talent. If he becomes a Bush/Peterson/McFadden/Richardson or even a Stewart/Beanie/Moreno, he will eventually be worth a lot more than what I spent to get him. So relative to my assessment, 1.07 was indeed a modest price. I overpaid, and yet I still think I got a good deal. Those two concepts aren't necessarily incongruent. When I put Tyner as the #1 RB, I am not saying to take him ahead of everybody else. I'm saying that I think he's the most valuable. Those are two totally different things. His ADP won't be near RB1 in dev drafts, so I'd hope that anyone who likes him has the sense to let him slide a little bit and pick him up at a discount.
I think it is. Why would you continually let a guy you think is the most valuable player slip in a draft? It only takes one owner to be in the same line of thinking and you miss out on "your guy." If NE thought Tom Brady was going to be Tom Brady, they wouldn't have waited to take him in the 6th round because it was a value play. As you said "This is basic stuff"ETA: If you're going to go with the "value or modest price" path, then I believe it really needs to be emphasized.
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EBF
Footballguy
I think most drafters would disagree with you. There is no upside if you always buy players exactly where you value them. For example, if I traded up to the 1.01 to get Tyner, there would be no upside at that point. On the flipside, if you know that you can get players for significantly less than you think they're worth, that's how you make a profit (provided that your assessment is correct). This is not controversial stuff. When most people are preparing for a draft, they try to get a sense for where a given player is going to go. You don't take a at his ceiling out of total paranoia that someone will snake you. You get in position to get them slightly ahead of his ADP, but still well below what you think he's actually worth. The Tyner pick is a textbook example of that. I moved up just high enough to be 100% certain that I would get him, but still low enough to where there's lots of room for positive return on my investment if my assessment of his value is correct.
Discrepancies between perceived value and actual value are what creates the opportunity for profitable transactions.
I don't disagree with your notion and it's obvious. However, in a devy draft, opinions vary MUCH more due to limited information of the prospects. Time in college, recruiting rankings, limited production, accurate sizes, measurables, no combine, no pro day, no NFL draft. This discussion is closer to owners value of Dez Bryant/Demaryius Thomas/Julio Jones/Percy Harvin/etc differently, but they're all in the same group.
Versus the 13th round of a startup and discussing Phillip Rivers ranking vs value play.
you can raise concerns all you want, whether you or I "should" is subject for debate since this is a free public message board and none of us have the moral authority to policy other posters content (natch the Sponsors of this board). I am satisfied with EBF's explanation of why he picked Tyner. I haven't asked any follow up questions about his ranking of Tyner because I really don't care: it's his opinion and it's out there.
Xue
Footballguy
Derrick Green, RB Michigan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9Z6L6nJs4cRanks:247Sports: 8thScout.com: 1stRivals.com: 1stESPN: 5thI don't understand the high ranking of this kid. I don't see much special.
Xue
Footballguy
He's only 5'7, 190. More like Darren Sproles/Curtis McNeal. Maybe another Ameer Abdullah.
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Xue
Footballguy
Todd Gurley is up to 230 lbs? http://www.macon.com/2013/03/28/2416284/gurley-adding-muscle-pass-play.html
Xue
Footballguy
Former Pitt RB Rushel Shell to UCLA: http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/college-football/story/_/id/9176831/rushel-shell-transfer-ucla-bruins-pitt-panthers-reports-say
jurb26
Footballguy
I'd stay away from this guy, far away.Just to provide inside to the comment...
I have connections close to the Pitt program and long story short he is this. Once Graham was headed to the draft Shell became a major problem for the coaches and team. He had a sense of entitlement, was uncoachable and basically walked off the team because the coaches tried to provide him with criticism. The coaches were so put off by him they blocked him from any ACC team, not surprising as they will now play there. Worse yet, they deliberately blocked him from his top 2 choices for transfer, I believe they were Arz and ASU. They did this to intentionally spit him from what I was told, he was that much of a problem. Hence he is at UCLA. He's got talent, but doesn't seem to have the work ethic or discipline to make it in the NFL.
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Xue
Footballguy
Uh...You have the wrong Graham in mind. Head coach Todd Graham left Pitt after one year for Arizona State and Shell wanted to follow suit. Graham had recruited Shell before leaving. If a guy doesn't want to play for a certain program, is it really his fault?
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