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Xue

Dynasty: NON-Draft eligible College prospects

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I don't entirely disagree. I actually don't see anyone on the CFB landscape who looks just incredible in that way.

On the other hand, I think it's easy to discredit REALLY GOOD first round prospects just because they're not perfect. And I think maybe you've been guilty of that to some extent with guys like Yeldon, Lee, and now Gurley. There is a middle ground where a guy can be short of the Calvin/Peterson level and still be a very strong prospect. I think most of the obvious top dev guys right now fall into that category.

Another part of it is that any time there's a prospect ranked near the top of his position coming into his last 1-2 college seasons, people are going to put him under the microscope and scrutinize every flaw. There's also a segment of the population that will find reasons to say he's a bust (even if it's a stretch) just so they can toot their horns and say I told you so after the fact. Sometimes the skepticism is justified, but for the most part there's usually a pretty good reason why these prospects have the reputations that they have.

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Some predictions:

This year's Amari Cooper will be Robbie Rhodes, Baylor.

The Heisman winner will be another unknown in Florida State QB Jameis Winston.

This is my nephew.

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Devin Funchess was finally unleashed today. Currently my #1 TE for 2015 (Actually, I'd put him over anyone in 2014 as well). Though he has a chance to be a WR in the NFL if he doesn't put on anymore weight. Currently listed at 6'5" 225 and a lot more fluid than Mike Evans. I'm hoping he gets up to at least 240 and be everything we wanted from Ladarius Green.

Funchess refuses to even try to block. He is a a dynamic receiver and probably where he ends up projecting, but he will NOT be a TE unless he puts on weight AND learns and tries to block. He literally puts no effort into it.

But, he is nearly impossible to cover for a DB. Similar to Mike Evans or any other huge body WR.

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Branden Oliver?

Bo!

Has the "bowling ball" thing going for him....good low center of gravity, tough runner, tough to bring down, and can be a workhorse. I have my doubts about his measurables though....I think his pro day will be revealing. Does he have NFL RB speed? I'm on the fence.

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Donte Moncrief with a nice game vs Auburn. If the measurables check out and he declares he's still in the running to be the #1 WR drafted. Without having the info from Indy I'd absolutely take him over Watkins and Lee today.

Josh Huff also deserves more attention IMO. Will be curious to see him under the tape measure at the combine.

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Moncrief is pretty good, but I couldn't take him over Lee. He has some issues with his hands. Even his long TD from this past weekend was bobbled. I don't think he's quite as fluid as Lee overall. More of a straight-line runner. I could see him going top 25-45 in the draft. I think Lee will probably be a top 20 pick when all is said and done, with the potential to go top 10-15. He's not Calvin or Andre Johnson, but I'd put him on par with Blackmon and Crabtree in terms of overall quality. He doesn't have the imposing height or the blistering speed of a dream prospect, but he's probably going to test pretty well. He looks to be pretty thick for his height and his background in the long jump suggests that he'll do some good things in the 40, vertical, and broad jump. On raw talent alone, he's probably one of the best long jumpers in the country for his age group. You can't be good in that event if you don't have a certain level of explosiveness.

As of today I have Seastrunk and Lee as a pretty solid top 2 for the 2014 draft. Still trying to get a good read on Gordon and Watkins.

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The gap is closer than people think. Davis doesn't have Gurley's level of power, but he's not far behind. His vision is better, his feet are quicker, and he runs less violently thus avoiding big hits.

Mike Davis is not a random dark horse. He was closely ranked to Gurley by the recruiting sites coming out. He's one of the top RBs in all of college football and you could have gotten him cheap before the year. Now he'll be an early Devy next year.

You don't think Drake is better than Yeldon? He's every bit as good as Yeldon, though, I'm not that high on either anyway. Each have their negatives.

Weren't you once high on Markus Wheaton and Branden Oliver?

The gap isn't closer than most think, but yeah it's closer than some think.

Gurley has top notch vision. I don't think any college back is better than him in that regard, but some are close. Davis being one of those, Duke being another.

As far as feet, this is a classic AJ Green disease IMO. Gurley, because of his size and fluidity of movement makes things look easier than they should. Thus the appearance he doesn't posses elite feet or explosives. The thing is, he does posses it. Just ask the DBs at Clemson who thought they had a great angle on him but were out run or basically any of the guys he's beat in tight spaces over the past 2 years. Gurley runs with rare power and leverage primarily but also posses high level feet and explosiveness. I said over a year ago he was a better prospect than Yeldon and that has only proven more applicable today. K. Marshall is a high level prospect himself and Gurley still manages to separate himself widely from the likes of him. I'd say Marshal, not Gurely, is a closer comparison to Davis.

Saying he isn't a Peterson/Calvin prospect is pretty meaningless IMO. Those are guys who graded as some of the best at their positions in the last 10 years. You say Davis is a better prospect than Gurley. Is he a Peterson/Calvin prospect? The answer is no. The fact of the matter is Gurely may be and even if he's not is the closest thing we have to it. Davis is a good prospect as well and has earned a lot of respect IMO but in no way has demonstrated enough to supplant Gurely.

I agree with EBF, you seem to be more inclined with touting the dark horse than simply giving credit to the top prospects. I'm not sure if that's part of the fun of "scouting" to you or not, but sometimes you just have to accept that some guys are top of class. IMO Gurley is one of those guys.

Edited by jurb26
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Branden Oliver?

Bo!

Has the "bowling ball" thing going for him....good low center of gravity, tough runner, tough to bring down, and can be a workhorse. I have my doubts about his measurables though....I think his pro day will be revealing. Does he have NFL RB speed? I'm on the fence.

Liked him last year and actually spent a couple late devy picks on him. I'd probably go in another direction if I could have a do-over, but he's an interesting prospect. Compact, agile, and strong. Very very short though. Probably only about 5'6". That's going to keep him out of the first couple rounds in May. He's one of the players that I'm most looking forward to seeing at the combine though. I think he's actually a pretty good athlete. He's not going to jump out of the gym because of his height, but if he can run a 4.4 that would be great for his stock.

He may end up being a late rounder ala Dion Lewis and Quizz Rodgers, but there's definitely something there and I expect him to at least push hard to make a 53 man roster. He's got the NFL look and would probably be a solid day two prospect if he were two inches taller. Would not be surprised to see him tip the scales at 205+ regardless. He's a tank. Here's his 60 yard TD from Saturday:

http://youtu.be/rI9AoxVdOtc?t=11s

Edited by EBF

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The gap is closer than people think. Davis doesn't have Gurley's level of power, but he's not far behind. His vision is better, his feet are quicker, and he runs less violently thus avoiding big hits.

Mike Davis is not a random dark horse. He was closely ranked to Gurley by the recruiting sites coming out. He's one of the top RBs in all of college football and you could have gotten him cheap before the year. Now he'll be an early Devy next year.

You don't think Drake is better than Yeldon? He's every bit as good as Yeldon, though, I'm not that high on either anyway. Each have their negatives.

Weren't you once high on Markus Wheaton and Branden Oliver?

The gap isn't closer than most think, but yeah it's closer than some think.

Gurley has top notch vision. I don't think any college back is better than him in that regard, but some are close. Davis being one of those, Duke being another.

As far as feet, this is a classic AJ Green disease IMO. Gurley, because of his size and fluidity of movement makes things look easier than they should. Thus the appearance he doesn't posses elite feet or explosives. The thing is, he does posses it. Just ask the DBs at Clemson who thought they had a great angle on him but were out run or basically any of the guys he's beat in tight spaces over the past 2 years. Gurley runs with rare power and leverage primarily but also posses high level feet and explosiveness. I said over a year ago he was a better prospect than Yeldon and that has only proven more applicable today. K. Marshall is a high level prospect himself and Gurley still manages to separate himself widely from the likes of him. I'd say Marshal, not Gurely, is a closer comparison to Davis.

Saying he isn't a Peterson/Calvin prospect is pretty meaningless IMO. Those are guys who graded as some of the best at their positions in the last 10 years. You say Davis is a better prospect than Gurley. Is he a Peterson/Calvin prospect? The answer is no. The fact of the matter is Gurely may be and even if he's not is the closest thing we have to it. Davis is a good prospect as well and has earned a lot of respect IMO but in no way has demonstrated enough to supplant Gurely.

I agree with EBF, you seem to be more inclined with touting the dark horse than simply giving credit to the top prospects. I'm not sure if that's part of the fun of "scouting" to you or not, but sometimes you just have to accept that some guys are top of class. IMO Gurley is one of those guys.

I've watched a lot of each player. Gurley does not have better feet than Davis. It doesn't mean he has bad feet. I never said Davis is better than Gurley. I said he's talented such that the gap isn't much.

Marshall is nothing like Davis. He isn't physical and doesn't break tackles. Marshall is a finesse runner in the mold of Felix Jones.

You agree with the person who's been touting Thomas Tyner before he played a college game and ranked him #1? Yet you disagree with me on Davis because according to you he hasn't "in no way ... demonstrated enough to supplant Gurley"?

I never said Gurley isn't the top of this class. I've said many good things about Gurley before. The fun in "scouting" to is to watch a lot of footage and draw my own conclusions, not just listen to secondhand opinions.

Edited by Xue

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A name to keep on your radar is D'haquille Williams. He's been almost a mythological urban legend since 8th grade. He's a juco guy now that'll probably end up at LSU or Auburn and most agree hes a one and done. Most scouts agree he's a better prospect now than Cordarrelle Patterson. He has major character issues but is the real deal talent wise.

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I've watched a lot of each player. Gurley does not have better feet than Davis. It doesn't mean he has bad feet. I never said Davis is better than Gurley. I said he's talented such that the gap isn't much.

Marshall is nothing like Davis. He isn't physical and doesn't break tackles. Marshall is a finesse runner in the mold of Felix Jones.

You agree with the person who's been touting Thomas Tyner before he played a college game and ranked him #1? Yet you disagree with me on Davis because according to you he hasn't "in no way ... demonstrated enough to supplant Gurley"?

I never said Gurley isn't the top of this class. I've said many good things about Gurley before. The fun in "scouting" to is to watch a lot of footage and draw my own conclusions, not just listen to secondhand opinions.

A couple of things here.

You said earlier it wouldn't surprise you if Davis was the #1 RB over Gurley. Maybe I'm not understanding you, but that sounds like you're ranking him over Gurley and Gurley isn't top of class. That's basically what started this debate.

I'm not saying Davis and Marshall are similar in playing style. I'm saying I see them as similar in draft ranking, early 2nd round.

Lastly, what does Tyner have to do with this? I've never commented on him at all. Why can't I agree with EBF on one thing but not another? Especially something I've never even commented on.

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Branden Oliver?

Bo!

Has the "bowling ball" thing going for him....good low center of gravity, tough runner, tough to bring down, and can be a workhorse. I have my doubts about his measurables though....I think his pro day will be revealing. Does he have NFL RB speed? I'm on the fence.

Liked him last year and actually spent a couple late devy picks on him. I'd probably go in another direction if I could have a do-over, but he's an interesting prospect. Compact, agile, and strong. Very very short though. Probably only about 5'6". That's going to keep him out of the first couple rounds in May. He's one of the players that I'm most looking forward to seeing at the combine though. I think he's actually a pretty good athlete. He's not going to jump out of the gym because of his height, but if he can run a 4.4 that would be great for his stock.

He may end up being a late rounder ala Dion Lewis and Quizz Rodgers, but there's definitely something there and I expect him to at least push hard to make a 53 man roster. He's got the NFL look and would probably be a solid day two prospect if he were two inches taller. Would not be surprised to see him tip the scales at 205+ regardless. He's a tank. Here's his 60 yard TD from Saturday:

http://youtu.be/rI9AoxVdOtc?t=11s

:thumbup: I watch every UB game. A "tank" is a good way to put it. I would think he's probably 205+ right now.

He will most certainly get a shot or two in training camp; I hope he latches on with someone. While he may not have the striking athletic gifts that James Starks had, he has much more of the NFL look about him. Starks was a pure athlete that the coaches turned into a RB. Oliver is a pure RB.

I do have my doubts about his speed, like I said. He can break a long one, like you've shown, but there's a big difference between MAC defense speed and NFL defense speed. I don't have any doubts about Bo's toughness though. He could take 20-25 handoffs in an NFL game and be fine physically, I think...I'm just not sure how productive he would be. I do think, however, that he's a better pro prospect than James Starks, who has had some mildly productive days with the Packers.

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I've watched a lot of each player. Gurley does not have better feet than Davis. It doesn't mean he has bad feet. I never said Davis is better than Gurley. I said he's talented such that the gap isn't much.

Marshall is nothing like Davis. He isn't physical and doesn't break tackles. Marshall is a finesse runner in the mold of Felix Jones.

You agree with the person who's been touting Thomas Tyner before he played a college game and ranked him #1? Yet you disagree with me on Davis because according to you he hasn't "in no way ... demonstrated enough to supplant Gurley"?

I never said Gurley isn't the top of this class. I've said many good things about Gurley before. The fun in "scouting" to is to watch a lot of footage and draw my own conclusions, not just listen to secondhand opinions.

A couple of things here.

You said earlier it wouldn't surprise you if Davis was the #1 RB over Gurley. Maybe I'm not understanding you, but that sounds like you're ranking him over Gurley and Gurley isn't top of class. That's basically what started this debate.

I'm not saying Davis and Marshall are similar in playing style. I'm saying I see them as similar in draft ranking, early 2nd round.

Lastly, what does Tyner have to do with this? I've never commented on him at all. Why can't I agree with EBF on one thing but not another? Especially something I've never even commented on.

You agree with EBF for me "hyping" Davis because according to you he hasn't shown enough yet. EBF had been hyping Tyner yet he hadn't step foot on a college field yet. Sounds like a double standard to me.

I wouldn't rank Davis over Gurley, because I do take into account "value". I simply feel Davis is talented enough that you're getting a very good RB who may eventually be 1B to Gurley's 1A. Just as Doug Martin is to Trent Richardson. In hindsight, probably more teams wish they had taken Martin earlier in the 1st.

If Melvin Gordon doesn't declare for 2014, he's definitely in the conversation among Gurley and Davis for me.

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I really hope Gordon declares. I think he'd be crazy not to, just like Ball was. But Gordon is much more talented and has much less wear on his tires than Ball would have even if he'd come out early.

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You agree with EBF for me "hyping" Davis because according to you he hasn't shown enough yet. EBF had been hyping Tyner yet he hadn't step foot on a college field yet. Sounds like a double standard to me.

I don't think there's a double standard. He just doesn't agree with your ranking of Davis and Gurley. Nothing more.

Tyner has nothing to do with the conversation.

Edited by EBF

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You agree with EBF for me "hyping" Davis because according to you he hasn't shown enough yet. EBF had been hyping Tyner yet he hadn't step foot on a college field yet. Sounds like a double standard to me.

I don't think there's a double standard. He just doesn't agree with your ranking of Davis and Gurley. Nothing more.

Tyner has nothing to do with the conversation.

Pretty much. Though it seems now that maybe we agree and are just getting paralysis by analysis here.

I can appreciate EBF and others who rank and factor guys that aren't at the college level. I just don't really concern myself with it. There is even more variance in that than there is in trying to project college to pro. Personally, I just don't have the time or interest for it. Therefor, I generally won't comment on it.

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You agree with EBF for me "hyping" Davis because according to you he hasn't shown enough yet. EBF had been hyping Tyner yet he hadn't step foot on a college field yet. Sounds like a double standard to me.

I don't think there's a double standard. He just doesn't agree with your ranking of Davis and Gurley. Nothing more.

Tyner has nothing to do with the conversation.

Pretty much. Though it seems now that maybe we agree and are just getting paralysis by analysis here.

I can appreciate EBF and others who rank and factor guys that aren't at the college level. I just don't really concern myself with it. There is even more variance in that than there is in trying to project college to pro. Personally, I just don't have the time or interest for it. Therefor, I generally won't comment on it.

I don't spend much time on the HS kids either. Think it's mostly a waste of energy.

But I'm in two leagues where I can draft them, so it makes sense to take a cursory glance every year and see if anything pops out.

I felt like Tyner was a special case. 200+ pound kid with freaky Spiller/CJ3 level speed and decent looking vision/cuts. That's a no-brainer combination in football.

Maybe he won't be the second coming, but when the toolkit is so loaded I feel okay taking a shot for the price of a mid-late first round devy pick.

There isn't going to be a guy like that in every class though. More often than not, I think you should at least wait until you see them do something in NCAA.

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The Yeldon/Gurley debate will be interesting for the next 18 months. As of right this moment I think I actually favor Yeldon there. He isn't the prettiest east-west runner. He's got that funky knock-kneed running style, but he's about the same size as Gurley and seems to have more burst and long speed. I've been impressed with him this season after being on the fence last year.

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The Yeldon/Gurley debate will be interesting for the next 18 months. As of right this moment I think I actually favor Yeldon there. He isn't the prettiest east-west runner. He's got that funky knock-kneed running style, but he's about the same size as Gurley and seems to have more burst and long speed. I've been impressed with him this season after being on the fence last year.

I've become the opposite. I was a huge fan but now I'm on the fence. I think it's because of my own expectations and maybe I was expecting too much with all the hype and flashes that we saw last year in part time duty. I'll continue to watch as the season goes on.

Tex

ETA: I have 3 dev picks in next years draft so I plan to grab either both or one of these guys plus one of the top WR in 2015 class so I'm watching very very carefully.

Edited by BigTex

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The Yeldon/Gurley debate will be interesting for the next 18 months. As of right this moment I think I actually favor Yeldon there. He isn't the prettiest east-west runner. He's got that funky knock-kneed running style, but he's about the same size as Gurley and seems to have more burst and long speed. I've been impressed with him this season after being on the fence last year.

I've become the opposite. I was a huge fan but now I'm on the fence. I think it's because of my own expectations and maybe I was expecting too much with all the hype and flashes that we saw last year in part time duty. I'll continue to watch as the season goes on.

Tex

ETA: I have 3 dev picks in next years draft so I plan to grab either both or one of these guys plus one of the top WR in 2015 class so I'm watching very very carefully.

I might be right there with you. One of my teams is absolutely bombing in a league where both of those guys will be in the dev pool.

Looking hard at them and also at some of the other WR/RB/TE options.

On that note, sure seems like Dorial Green-Beckham will go down as a recruiting bust. Having a decent year, but really not looking like the "next Calvin" just yet.

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I'm pretty excited about the 2015 devy class, even beyond those two RB's. I think there's a lot of talent to mine there.

Right now in my league, the only guys from the 2015 class that are rostered are Gurley, Yeldon, Duke Johnson, and Amari Cooper.

Yeah, right now those are the most exciting names, but by spring this year there are going to be a truckload of prospects everyone's buzzing about, and I'll most likely own the #1 rookie and #1 devy pick.

Shoot, even the rookie draft should be fairly loaded at the top. Gordon isn't owned, the late rising TE's (everyone outside of ASJ and Lyerla) aren't owned, no QB's are owned. Another RB or two are bound to emerge and most of the rostered guys are guys I'm not a fan of (Carey, Wilder Jr., Archer, Thomas) and I own the other guys I AM a fan of (Seastrunk and Dyer).

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The Yeldon/Gurley debate will be interesting for the next 18 months. As of right this moment I think I actually favor Yeldon there. He isn't the prettiest east-west runner. He's got that funky knock-kneed running style, but he's about the same size as Gurley and seems to have more burst and long speed. I've been impressed with him this season after being on the fence last year.

I've become the opposite. I was a huge fan but now I'm on the fence. I think it's because of my own expectations and maybe I was expecting too much with all the hype and flashes that we saw last year in part time duty. I'll continue to watch as the season goes on.

Tex

ETA: I have 3 dev picks in next years draft so I plan to grab either both or one of these guys plus one of the top WR in 2015 class so I'm watching very very carefully.

I might be right there with you. One of my teams is absolutely bombing in a league where both of those guys will be in the dev pool.

Looking hard at them and also at some of the other WR/RB/TE options.

On that note, sure seems like Dorial Green-Beckham will go down as a recruiting bust. Having a decent year, but really not looking like the "next Calvin" just yet.

Same here and next year is going to be very interesting with some of the Best TEs we've ever seen come out of one class. There could be easily 5-7 TEs in the first two or three rounds that could have an immediate impact in the NFL and the way TEs are being used in the NFL is becoming more and more interesting and this past draft was the 1st time I've ever considering drafting a TE over a WR.

Let's not talk about some of the RBs and WRs from lesser known schools that are looking like studs and outperforming the Gurley's and Yeldon's who we were expecting to just blow the NCAA by storm. We do have a long season to go and I've yet to miss many games so we'll see how things play out when some of these players play teams that are highly ranked.

Tex

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I'm pretty excited about the 2015 devy class, even beyond those two RB's. I think there's a lot of talent to mine there.

Right now in my league, the only guys from the 2015 class that are rostered are Gurley, Yeldon, Duke Johnson, and Amari Cooper.

Yeah, right now those are the most exciting names, but by spring this year there are going to be a truckload of prospects everyone's buzzing about, and I'll most likely own the #1 rookie and #1 devy pick.

Shoot, even the rookie draft should be fairly loaded at the top. Gordon isn't owned, the late rising TE's (everyone outside of ASJ and Lyerla) aren't owned, no QB's are owned. Another RB or two are bound to emerge and most of the rostered guys are guys I'm not a fan of (Carey, Wilder Jr., Archer, Thomas) and I own the other guys I AM a fan of (Seastrunk and Dyer).

Some people have been down on the 2014 class but like always it's way too early to judge until the underclassmen make their final decision but it has a chance to be really great now the 2015 class may be off the charts which is why I'm loading up on devy picks which I've never done. I have had two before but never three and I'm trying to get four and I'll be set. The next two classes are going to be very interesting IMHO and it's been a long time since I've been this excited about a class.

Tex

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Just from a devy perspective, the Woods/Allen/Lattimore class looked weak all along. I had the 1.03 pick in one league that year and traded down for two late 1sts, which I never would've done in a strong class. I think this past year had a few decent guys right at the top (Lee, Seastrunk, Watkins) and then a pretty big dropoff to 2nd-3rd round types. However, that 2015 crew is looking pretty strong. I think it's still missing a super prospect at WR. IMO there hasn't been a truly slam dunk dev WR prospect since Crabtree and then Blackmon. Lee is good, but a hair below those guys. I don't see Cooper or Diggs as being on that level either.

However, 2015 seems to have really great depth across the board and some possible frontline names at RB.

Having said that, I've been playing in devy leagues for 5+ years now and you definitely notice a couple things happening with every class:

- People are always in love with next year's draft. But then what inevitably happens is that some of the guys who are touted as superstar prospects wilt under further scrutiny and wind up dropping in the draft. Obvious examples would include Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Arrelious Benn, Alshon Jeffery, and Jonathan Dwyer. Say what you will about those guys as NFL players, but purely as prospects they went from being "elite 1st round lock" early in their college careers to 2nd+ rounders by the time they were actually drafted. So if you want to talk about the next wave of players, you have to remember that few of them will break this way when the dust settles.

- The flipside is that every year brings a few big surprises out of nowhere. Demaryius Thomas was actually picked in some dev drafts back in the day, but entering his final college season he was not considered an obvious top 5-6 prospect in his class. More of a project. Same for Doug Martin, David Wilson, RGIII, Ryan Mathews, and several of last year's top guys (Austin, Hopkins, Patterson). You get a couple of these every year and they seem to mostly offset the losses from the Dwyer/Benn/Woods kind of guys who slide.

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Personally, this is my first year in a Devy league so I appreciate "big picture" posts like that, EBF. I've always been interested and active in researching prospects during the NFL draft process, but this is my first foray into drafting players still in college.

It's really fun, I know that so far. I love watching "my guys" on Saturdays, just waiting until I can root for them to be drafted into a good situation so I can watch them on Sundays. And keeping an eye out for future devy prospects to target, and the cycle repeats.

But it's always good to get some perspective on the process and recent history of prospects in this league format, so thank you. It tempers my enthusiasm a bit, which is needed.

But it's so enticing, because devy draft picks are by far the cheapest way to acquire future dynasty superstars that there is, in any dynasty format. Because in regular leagues, these guys can cost a fortune to grab by the time they are highly touted rookies in a rookie draft.

One thing I'm realizing is that it seems like it pays to keep your eyes out for those size-speed freaks. See: Demaryius Thomas. Rare athleticism is a major draw in a format like this, which is why I totally understand your early Thomas Tyner call.

Edited by ConnSKINS26

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One thing I'm realizing is that it seems like it pays to keep your eyes out for those size-speed freaks. See: Demaryius Thomas. Rare athleticism is a major draw in a format like this, which is why I totally understand your early Thomas Tyner call.

Bingo. The reason why I like dynasty more than redraft is because there's more uncertainty. Likewise, the reason why I like dev leagues more than simple dynasty is the same. It's very hard to get a huge steal in redraft leagues for the simple reason that most of the elite NFL players are already known and that they simply won't slip in the draft. There is an added layer of skill in dynasty where you have the opportunity to pick rookies before they've even played a down in the NFL, but even then you've got the NFL draft as a vetting process that's going to more or less turn the rookie draft into a paint-by-numbers exercise. If you're looking for the next great WR or RB, you have very little chance of him with a late pick because guys like Doug Martin and Justin Blackmon aren't slipping out of the top 4-5.

Dev drafts are also paint-by-numbers to some extent since most people are looking at the same mock drafts and the same rookie rankings, but there's a bit more fluidity and uncertainty. You see guys like Demaryius Thomas and Giovani Bernard falling down to 1.12-1.14. If you can spot the right players, you can make those kind of steals. I have had some very awful dev picks over the years (Stafon Johnson, Mardy Gilyard, Jarret Dillard). On the other hand, I've had some smash hit home runs. Doug Martin with the 1.12. Trent Richardson in the 6th round of a startup after his freshman year at Bama. Andrew Luck dirt cheap in two leagues after his RS Freshman year. It's a big thrill to land a player like that for a bargain bin price only to watch him grow into a 1st round NFL prospect.

With redraft leagues and even dynasty being pretty well solved these days, these dev leagues are really the final frontier as far as parsing huge amounts of uncertainty and playing FF in a space of limited information where the cards aren't yet face up on the table. I enjoy the challenge and I think at this point I'll never join another dynasty league that doesn't feature dev players. It is really fun to think that the next great mega star is just sitting out there waiting to be found and if you do your homework correctly, you can steal him for nothing. There is a little bit of that in redraft and dynasty, but not nearly to the same extent.

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Just from a devy perspective, the Woods/Allen/Lattimore class looked weak all along. I had the 1.03 pick in one league that year and traded down for two late 1sts, which I never would've done in a strong class. I think this past year had a few decent guys right at the top (Lee, Seastrunk, Watkins) and then a pretty big dropoff to 2nd-3rd round types. However, that 2015 crew is looking pretty strong. I think it's still missing a super prospect at WR. IMO there hasn't been a truly slam dunk dev WR prospect since Crabtree and then Blackmon. Lee is good, but a hair below those guys. I don't see Cooper or Diggs as being on that level either.

However, 2015 seems to have really great depth across the board and some possible frontline names at RB.

Having said that, I've been playing in devy leagues for 5+ years now and you definitely notice a couple things happening with every class:

- People are always in love with next year's draft. But then what inevitably happens is that some of the guys who are touted as superstar prospects wilt under further scrutiny and wind up dropping in the draft. Obvious examples would include Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Arrelious Benn, Alshon Jeffery, and Jonathan Dwyer. Say what you will about those guys as NFL players, but purely as prospects they went from being "elite 1st round lock" early in their college careers to 2nd+ rounders by the time they were actually drafted. So if you want to talk about the next wave of players, you have to remember that few of them will break this way when the dust settles.

- The flipside is that every year brings a few big surprises out of nowhere. Demaryius Thomas was actually picked in some dev drafts back in the day, but entering his final college season he was not considered an obvious top 5-6 prospect in his class. More of a project. Same for Doug Martin, David Wilson, RGIII, Ryan Mathews, and several of last year's top guys (Austin, Hopkins, Patterson). You get a couple of these every year and they seem to mostly offset the losses from the Dwyer/Benn/Woods kind of guys who slide.

I don't think a drop from an 'elite 1st round lock' to an early/mid 2nd round pick is all that big of a drop. If you can get future early/mid 2nd round picks in your devy drafts each year you're doing pretty damn good; especially when there's only 3-4 skill position players that get taken in the 1st round of an NFL draft sometimes, as was the case last season. Even a fall to the 3rd round isn't that bad; I can't imagine too many people who spent devy picks on Keenan Allen are that upset right now given how he's performed so far in his NFL career, for example. Jon Dwyer's catastrophic drop to the 6th round definitely fits the bill of a supposed superstar prospect falling by the wayside on draft day, but to be honest I don't recall that sort of drop happening all that often.

Edited by Time Kibitzer

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Just from a devy perspective, the Woods/Allen/Lattimore class looked weak all along. I had the 1.03 pick in one league that year and traded down for two late 1sts, which I never would've done in a strong class. I think this past year had a few decent guys right at the top (Lee, Seastrunk, Watkins) and then a pretty big dropoff to 2nd-3rd round types. However, that 2015 crew is looking pretty strong. I think it's still missing a super prospect at WR. IMO there hasn't been a truly slam dunk dev WR prospect since Crabtree and then Blackmon. Lee is good, but a hair below those guys. I don't see Cooper or Diggs as being on that level either.

However, 2015 seems to have really great depth across the board and some possible frontline names at RB.

Having said that, I've been playing in devy leagues for 5+ years now and you definitely notice a couple things happening with every class:

- People are always in love with next year's draft. But then what inevitably happens is that some of the guys who are touted as superstar prospects wilt under further scrutiny and wind up dropping in the draft. Obvious examples would include Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Arrelious Benn, Alshon Jeffery, and Jonathan Dwyer. Say what you will about those guys as NFL players, but purely as prospects they went from being "elite 1st round lock" early in their college careers to 2nd+ rounders by the time they were actually drafted. So if you want to talk about the next wave of players, you have to remember that few of them will break this way when the dust settles.

- The flipside is that every year brings a few big surprises out of nowhere. Demaryius Thomas was actually picked in some dev drafts back in the day, but entering his final college season he was not considered an obvious top 5-6 prospect in his class. More of a project. Same for Doug Martin, David Wilson, RGIII, Ryan Mathews, and several of last year's top guys (Austin, Hopkins, Patterson). You get a couple of these every year and they seem to mostly offset the losses from the Dwyer/Benn/Woods kind of guys who slide.

I don't think a drop from an 'elite 1st round lock' to an early/mid 2nd round pick is all that big of a drop. If you can get future early/mid 2nd round picks in your devy drafts each year you're doing pretty damn good; especially when there's only 3-4 skill position players that get taken in the 1st round of an NFL draft sometimes, as was the case last season. Even a fall to the 3rd round isn't that bad; I can't imagine too many people who spent devy picks on Keenan Allen are that upset right now given how he's performed so far in his NFL career, for example. Jon Dwyer's catastrophic drop to the 6th round definitely fits the bill of a supposed superstar prospect falling by the wayside on draft day, but to be honest I don't recall that sort of drop happening all that often.

I'd say it's a pretty massive deal when a prospect falls out of the first round. The career outlook is just so much brighter for a guy picked in the first round. Dropping to the second means he loses about half of his value based on generic career expectations for players drafted at spot X. If Keenan Allen had been a first round pick as once projected, he likely would've been a top 4-5 pick in every rookie draft. Instead he fell to the 10-14 range. That is a pretty significant drop. Late 1sts are worth about half of early 1sts in a typical rookie draft.

Dev players who suffer big drops in value are more common than you're suggesting. Last year saw Da'Rick Rogers, Matt Barkley, and Marquess Wilson go in the top 9 of my oldest dev league. In 2011 we had Justin Blackmon and Trent Richardson in the top 3 picks, but Knile Davis, Edwin Baker, Cameron Marshall, Jeff Fuller, Mohamed Sanu, Juron Criner, Andre Ellington, and Cyrus Gray also in the top 14. That's a whole lot of nothing.

This is part of the fun with dev drafts. You have a realistic shot to get a 1st round NFL draft pick with your 10-14 pick. On the other hand, there are a lot of land mines out there and you can very easily end up with a highly touted player who tumbles like a rock in the actual draft.

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Just from a devy perspective, the Woods/Allen/Lattimore class looked weak all along. I had the 1.03 pick in one league that year and traded down for two late 1sts, which I never would've done in a strong class. I think this past year had a few decent guys right at the top (Lee, Seastrunk, Watkins) and then a pretty big dropoff to 2nd-3rd round types. However, that 2015 crew is looking pretty strong. I think it's still missing a super prospect at WR. IMO there hasn't been a truly slam dunk dev WR prospect since Crabtree and then Blackmon. Lee is good, but a hair below those guys. I don't see Cooper or Diggs as being on that level either.

However, 2015 seems to have really great depth across the board and some possible frontline names at RB.

Having said that, I've been playing in devy leagues for 5+ years now and you definitely notice a couple things happening with every class:

- People are always in love with next year's draft. But then what inevitably happens is that some of the guys who are touted as superstar prospects wilt under further scrutiny and wind up dropping in the draft. Obvious examples would include Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Arrelious Benn, Alshon Jeffery, and Jonathan Dwyer. Say what you will about those guys as NFL players, but purely as prospects they went from being "elite 1st round lock" early in their college careers to 2nd+ rounders by the time they were actually drafted. So if you want to talk about the next wave of players, you have to remember that few of them will break this way when the dust settles.

- The flipside is that every year brings a few big surprises out of nowhere. Demaryius Thomas was actually picked in some dev drafts back in the day, but entering his final college season he was not considered an obvious top 5-6 prospect in his class. More of a project. Same for Doug Martin, David Wilson, RGIII, Ryan Mathews, and several of last year's top guys (Austin, Hopkins, Patterson). You get a couple of these every year and they seem to mostly offset the losses from the Dwyer/Benn/Woods kind of guys who slide.

I don't think a drop from an 'elite 1st round lock' to an early/mid 2nd round pick is all that big of a drop. If you can get future early/mid 2nd round picks in your devy drafts each year you're doing pretty damn good; especially when there's only 3-4 skill position players that get taken in the 1st round of an NFL draft sometimes, as was the case last season. Even a fall to the 3rd round isn't that bad; I can't imagine too many people who spent devy picks on Keenan Allen are that upset right now given how he's performed so far in his NFL career, for example. Jon Dwyer's catastrophic drop to the 6th round definitely fits the bill of a supposed superstar prospect falling by the wayside on draft day, but to be honest I don't recall that sort of drop happening all that often.

I'd say it's a pretty massive deal when a prospect falls out of the first round. The career outlook is just so much brighter for a guy picked in the first round. Dropping to the second means he loses about half of his value based on generic career expectations for players drafted at spot X. If Keenan Allen had been a first round pick as once projected, he likely would've been a top 4-5 pick in every rookie draft. Instead he fell to the 10-14 range. That is a pretty significant drop. Late 1sts are worth about half of early 1sts in a typical rookie draft.

Dev players who suffer big drops in value are more common than you're suggesting. Last year saw Da'Rick Rogers, Matt Barkley, and Marquess Wilson go in the top 9 of my oldest dev league. In 2011 we had Justin Blackmon and Trent Richardson in the top 3 picks, but Knile Davis, Edwin Baker, Cameron Marshall, Jeff Fuller, Mohamed Sanu, Juron Criner, Andre Ellington, and Cyrus Gray also in the top 14. That's a whole lot of nothing.

This is part of the fun with dev drafts. You have a realistic shot to get a 1st round NFL draft pick with your 10-14 pick. On the other hand, there are a lot of land mines out there and you can very easily end up with a highly touted player who tumbles like a rock in the actual draft.

Guys like Baker/Gray had their fans, but I don't think they were anywhere near as hyped as Dwyer who was the all but assumed #1 RB in the draft, especially from a fantasy standpoint. I don't think you'd find many of those guys you listed in Kiper/McShay first round mock drafts, for example, like you did in Dwyer. The only guy you listed that I recall actually being hyped as an unquestioned first rounder was Matt Barkley. Maybe Kniles Davis too for the couple months prior to his season ending injury in his junior season.

But my point is when there's only 3-7 RB/WRs going in the first round of the NFL draft a year, it can literally be impossible to get someone who ends up being a first round pick in the 10-14 range. And as you mentioned, it can be pretty easy to spend a first round devy pick on guys like Baker/Gray who end up being late picks or going undrafted altogether. If you can draft a player who goes in the 2nd round every year there's no way you aren't coming out way ahead of the large majority of your leaguemates.

As for the bolded, the higher a player is drafted the better, of course, but I think attempting to put exact value numbers on each pick is impractical given how arbitrary the cutoff is for each round. For example, I don't think it's reasonable to conclude a player taken 29th overall's outlook is twice as good as a player taken 34th overall just because he was drafted 6 picks earlier. I think there's more value discrepancy between a player taken in the early first and the late first than between a player taken in the late first and the early second.

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I took a look at how developmental picks actually panned out, or didn't. IIRC I used data from three leagues across three years -- so nine drafts total.

The columns are

--Developmental pick #

--The average draft position for those players in normal rookie drafts (non-devy leagues) when they came out.

--The highest rookie pick used for that player the year they came out.

--The percentage of players who went undrafted from that devy spot.

Pick #	 AVG	 Min   % UDDevy1	 6.57 	 1.00 	0%Devy2	 7.71 	 1.00 	0%Devy3	 6.93 	 2.50 	0%Devy4	 14.07 	 4.25 	0%Devy5	 18.11 	 3.50 	0%Devy6	 15.13 	 3.00 	0%Devy7	 28.19 	 8.25 	7%Devy8	 17.78 	 3.25  36%Devy9	 17.25 	 3.50 	0%Devy10	 20.89 	 3.25 	7%Devy11	 24.78 	 4.75 	9%Devy12	 23.77 	 3.00 	0%Devy13	 30.62 	12.75 	0%Devy14	 24.37 	 4.75  30%
As you'd expect devy picks are effectively huge swings for the fences. Most of them will turn out to be worth a first or second round rookie pick, but even some of the late ones will emerge to be top picks. Edited by wdcrob

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The Yeldon/Gurley debate will be interesting for the next 18 months. As of right this moment I think I actually favor Yeldon there. He isn't the prettiest east-west runner. He's got that funky knock-kneed running style, but he's about the same size as Gurley and seems to have more burst and long speed. I've been impressed with him this season after being on the fence last year.

I'm curious as to why you favor Yeldon? Personally, I don't see Yeldon as better in any aspect than Gurley. Early on I thought Yeldon was more explosive, but after watching Gurely more and more I just don't think that's true at all. Gurley seems to be extremely underrated in the burst/long speed area by quit a few people. I just see a much faster and explosive player than most. This guy was returning KOs for Georgia last year and out ran angles with ease. He also outran the angles of a fast Clemson secondary with ease. People want to see him as a power back only for some reason and it just isn't so.

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I took a look at how developmental picks actually panned out, or didn't. IIRC I used data from three leagues across three years -- so nine drafts total.

The columns are

--Developmental pick #

--The average draft position for those players in normal rookie drafts (non-devy leagues) when they came out.

--The highest rookie pick used for that player the year they came out.

--The percentage of players who went undrafted from that devy spot.

Pick #	 AVG	 Min   % UDDevy1	 6.57 	 1.00 	0%Devy2	 7.71 	 1.00 	0%Devy3	 6.93 	 2.50 	0%Devy4	 14.07 	 4.25 	0%Devy5	 18.11 	 3.50 	0%Devy6	 15.13 	 3.00 	0%Devy7	 28.19 	 8.25 	7%Devy8	 17.78 	 3.25  36%Devy9	 17.25 	 3.50 	0%Devy10	 20.89 	 3.25 	7%Devy11	 24.78 	 4.75 	9%Devy12	 23.77 	 3.00 	0%Devy13	 30.62 	12.75 	0%Devy14	 24.37 	 4.75  30%
As you'd expect devy picks are effectively huge swings for the fences. Most of them will turn out to be worth a first or second round rookie pick, but even some of the late ones will emerge to be top picks.

Drives home what a crapshoot they are after the first few picks, but also how even the late picks can turn into gold.

It goes without saying that you're not going to get a player with a top 3 rookie draft ADP in the 12-14 range of your rookie draft, but in the dev draft there are a couple gems that slide that far (or further) every year. Makes things very interesting.

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The Yeldon/Gurley debate will be interesting for the next 18 months. As of right this moment I think I actually favor Yeldon there. He isn't the prettiest east-west runner. He's got that funky knock-kneed running style, but he's about the same size as Gurley and seems to have more burst and long speed. I've been impressed with him this season after being on the fence last year.

I'm curious as to why you favor Yeldon? Personally, I don't see Yeldon as better in any aspect than Gurley. Early on I thought Yeldon was more explosive, but after watching Gurely more and more I just don't think that's true at all. Gurley seems to be extremely underrated in the burst/long speed area by quit a few people. I just see a much faster and explosive player than most. This guy was returning KOs for Georgia last year and out ran angles with ease. He also outran the angles of a fast Clemson secondary with ease. People want to see him as a power back only for some reason and it just isn't so.

Nothing is set in stone at this point, but to me Gurley looks a bit smoother/more fluid whereas Yeldon looks faster/more explosive.

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I took a look at how developmental picks actually panned out, or didn't. IIRC I used data from three leagues across three years -- so nine drafts total.

The columns are

--Developmental pick #

--The average draft position for those players in normal rookie drafts (non-devy leagues) when they came out.

--The highest rookie pick used for that player the year they came out.

--The percentage of players who went undrafted from that devy spot.

Pick #	 AVG	 Min   % UDDevy1	 6.57 	 1.00 	0%Devy2	 7.71 	 1.00 	0%Devy3	 6.93 	 2.50 	0%Devy4	 14.07 	 4.25 	0%Devy5	 18.11 	 3.50 	0%Devy6	 15.13 	 3.00 	0%Devy7	 28.19 	 8.25 	7%Devy8	 17.78 	 3.25  36%Devy9	 17.25 	 3.50 	0%Devy10	 20.89 	 3.25 	7%Devy11	 24.78 	 4.75 	9%Devy12	 23.77 	 3.00 	0%Devy13	 30.62 	12.75 	0%Devy14	 24.37 	 4.75  30%
As you'd expect devy picks are effectively huge swings for the fences. Most of them will turn out to be worth a first or second round rookie pick, but even some of the late ones will emerge to be top picks.

Drives home what a crapshoot they are after the first few picks, but also how even the late picks can turn into gold.

It goes without saying that you're not going to get a player with a top 3 rookie draft ADP in the 12-14 range of your rookie draft, but in the dev draft there are a couple gems that slide that far (or further) every year. Makes things very interesting.

I also took a look at the devy draft history for an upcoming article. I charted every pick from 2005-2010 (left out recent years since some can't be labeled yet). I simply labeled players as studs, contributors or busts. I know EBF and I are looking at the same drafts as many of those same names came up.

The bust rate was at more than 50% and featured players like Gerald Riggs Jr and PJ Hill.

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The Yeldon/Gurley debate will be interesting for the next 18 months. As of right this moment I think I actually favor Yeldon there. He isn't the prettiest east-west runner. He's got that funky knock-kneed running style, but he's about the same size as Gurley and seems to have more burst and long speed. I've been impressed with him this season after being on the fence last year.

I'm curious as to why you favor Yeldon? Personally, I don't see Yeldon as better in any aspect than Gurley. Early on I thought Yeldon was more explosive, but after watching Gurely more and more I just don't think that's true at all. Gurley seems to be extremely underrated in the burst/long speed area by quit a few people. I just see a much faster and explosive player than most. This guy was returning KOs for Georgia last year and out ran angles with ease. He also outran the angles of a fast Clemson secondary with ease. People want to see him as a power back only for some reason and it just isn't so.

Nothing is set in stone at this point, but to me Gurley looks a bit smoother/more fluid whereas Yeldon looks faster/more explosive.

Yeldon looks more effortless and runs lighter on his feet while Gurley runs harder. I think Gurley will time faster.

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Jameis Winston is about to establish himself as a Heisman front runner this week against Clemson.

Get your popcorn ready!

:popcorn:

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I know you guys don't like Spam, so no link included...

had been building this list over the first few weeks of the season, here's my first set of ranked devy rankings...

obviously there's some guys who are going pro this season, but figured I'd include them anyway

shout out to twitter, which without the constant streamline of info, I wouldn't know who half these players were... if you're not on yet... you crazy foos

QBs

1. Teddy Bridgewater Louisville JR

2.Jameis Winston Florida St Freshman

3. Marcus Mariota Oregon RS Soph

4. Christian Hackenberg Penn St Freshman

5. Brett Hundley UCLA Soph

6. Sean Mannion Oregon St JR

7. Johnny Manziel Texas A&M RS Soph

8. Ford Childress West Virginia Freshman

9. Bryce Petty Baylor JR

10. Kevin Hogan Stanford JR

11.Maxwell Smith Kentucky Sophomore

12. Jared Goff California Freshman

RBs

1.Todd Gurley Georgia Soph

2.Melvin Gordon Wisconsin RS Soph

3.TJ Yeldon Alabama Soph

4.Alex Collins Arkansas Freshman

5.Mike Davis South Carolina Soph

6.Lache Seastrunk Baylor JR

7.Bishop Sankey Washington JR

8.Jeremy Hill LSU RS Soph

9.Ka'Deem Carey Arizona JR

10.Ameer Abdullah Nebraska JR

11.Jonathan Williams Arkansas Soph

12.Duke Johnson Miami Soph

13.Keith Marshall Georgia Soph

14.Romar Morris North Carolina RS Soph

15.Tre Madden USC Soph

16.Jamaal Williams BYU Soph

17.Paul James Rutgers JR

WR

1. Sammy Watkins Clemson JR

2. Marqise Lee USC JR

3. Mike Evans Texas A&M RS Soph

4. Stefon Diggs Maryland Soph

5. Davante Adams Fresno State RS Soph

6. Amari Cooper Alabama Soph

7. Leonte Carroo Rutgers Soph

8. Nelson Agholor USC Soph

9. Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss Fresh

10. Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri Soph

11.Sean Price Apalachian State RS Soph

12. Allen Robinson Penn St JR

13. Odell Beckam LSU JR

14. Paul Richardson Colorado JR

15. Brandin Cooks Oregon St JR

16. Jarvis Landry LSU JR

17. Antwan Goodley Baylor JR

18. Chris Harper California Soph

19. Shaq Roland South Carolina Soph

20.Sammie Coates Auburn Soph

21. DaVante Parker Louisville JR

22. Devon Cajuste stanford JR

23. Rashad Greene Florida St JR

TE

1. Eric Ebron North Carolina JR

2. Devin Funchess Michigan Soph

3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins Washington JR

4. Jace Amaro Texas Tech JR

5. Colt Lyerla Oregon JR

Edited by wiscstlatlmia
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QBs

12. Jared Goff California Freshman

Goff has crazy stats starting as a true freshman (he turned 19 this week). A lot of that it due to the offense and the huge number of attempts he's getting. He averaging 46 attempts per game despite being pulled from the Oregon game in the second quarter after 7 attempts. (Zach Kline, his backup, had 37 attempts in that game). He has a respectable 7.3 yards/attempt and is on pace to throw for over 4000 yards, but a lot of that is extended running game, which is partly why he has just 9 TDs in six games.

He has two very talented wideouts in Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs, and has shown the ability to get the ball over the top to them; he's got a very strong arm. His accuracy on shorter routes still needs work (59.6% completions). Dykes has kept the offensive system simple; it looks like there are only one or two reads on most plays, despite having 3 or 4 wideouts lined up. I haven't yet seen Goff look off a read, reset himself in the pocket, and find an outlet. He's not really a threat to run, though he's not a statue in the pocket. He has some development to do.

18. Chris Harper California Soph

Harper isn't a Keenan Allen-level talent, but he is very good at this level. Fast, runs good routes, pretty good (not great) hands. His stats are somewhat inflated by the offense.

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Montgomery is probably the best offensive skill prospect on Stanford. Cajuste is interesting as a TE, but doesn't have the burst to play out wide at the next level. I would not draft Kevin Hogan if I were picking for an NFL team today. Good athlete. Suspect QB skills. Very raw and probably best viewed as a developmental backup type ala Stephen McGee, Josh McCown, Charlie Whitehurst. Not sure he is ever going to put it together, but he's still young.

Mostly agree with your top 6 WRs. Quite a few guys I would take over your 7-10 cluster though.

Couple big names missing from your RB list. Guys I am a little higher on than most. Dyer from Louisville and Freeman from Florida State. Both fit the mold of the kind of running back that tends to work well in the NFL. 210-220 pounds. Compact and powerful with sneaky speed and just enough quickness. I'll bang the drum for Freeman a little bit this year because I don't think he gets enough love from draftniks. He's a load and he can run a bit:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9673614

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9673600

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9772862

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9704484

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9773275

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9704778

Think either one of those guys as a 3rd-5th round value will be a nice NFL back. Maybe comparable in output to someone like Mendenhall. Another 220 pounder with above average speed and just enough quickness. If I were an NFL GM, I would like the prospect of getting either one of them as a cheap and serviceable back.

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I don't play FF, but I've been very impressed with Bama true freshman TE OJ Howard. Listed at 6'6" 237 and looks every bit of it. I think he's got potential to be an NFL stud in the future....obviously it's very early though.

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Montgomery is probably the best offensive skill prospect on Stanford. Cajuste is interesting as a TE, but doesn't have the burst to play out wide at the next level. I would not draft Kevin Hogan if I were picking for an NFL team today. Good athlete. Suspect QB skills. Very raw and probably best viewed as a developmental backup type ala Stephen McGee, Josh McCown, Charlie Whitehurst. Not sure he is ever going to put it together, but he's still young.

Mostly agree with your top 6 WRs. Quite a few guys I would take over your 7-10 cluster though.

Couple big names missing from your RB list. Guys I am a little higher on than most. Dyer from Louisville and Freeman from Florida State. Both fit the mold of the kind of running back that tends to work well in the NFL. 210-220 pounds. Compact and powerful with sneaky speed and just enough quickness. I'll bang the drum for Freeman a little bit this year because I don't think he gets enough love from draftniks. He's a load and he can run a bit:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9673614

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9673600

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9772862

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9704484

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9773275

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9704778

Think either one of those guys as a 3rd-5th round value will be a nice NFL back. Maybe comparable in output to someone like Mendenhall. Another 220 pounder with above average speed and just enough quickness. If I were an NFL GM, I would like the prospect of getting either one of them as a cheap and serviceable back.

:goodposting: on Freeman. I'm a tad worried he's not as bulky as MJD/Rice, and his lack of receiving stats are cause for concern, but he's got legit NFL starter talent. I much prefer a guy like Freeman with special qualities over a jack of all trades mediocre talent like Sankey.

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:goodposting: on Freeman. I'm a tad worried he's not as bulky as MJD/Rice, and his lack of receiving stats are cause for concern, but he's got legit NFL starter talent. I much prefer a guy like Freeman with special qualities over a jack of all trades mediocre talent like Sankey.

Well, not many RBs are as bulky as MJD.

ESPN has Freeman at 5'9" 203. To me, he looks heavier than that. I think when the actual height/weight comes in we'll see that he's right around 30-31 BMI. Maybe even a little bigger. I don't think it will be a question mark for him.

Edited by EBF

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:goodposting: on Freeman. I'm a tad worried he's not as bulky as MJD/Rice, and his lack of receiving stats are cause for concern, but he's got legit NFL starter talent. I much prefer a guy like Freeman with special qualities over a jack of all trades mediocre talent like Sankey.

Well, not many RBs are as bulky as MJD.

ESPN has Freeman at 5'9" 203. To me, he looks heavier than that. I think when the actual height/weight comes in we'll see that he's right around 30-31 BMI. Maybe even a little bigger. I don't think it will be a question mark for him.

Sankey does some things better than Freeman and vice versa. I like them both, but as a whole, if Sankey is mediocre then Freeman is as well.

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QBs

12. Jared Goff California Freshman

Goff has crazy stats starting as a true freshman (he turned 19 this week). A lot of that it due to the offense and the huge number of attempts he's getting. He averaging 46 attempts per game despite being pulled from the Oregon game in the second quarter after 7 attempts. (Zach Kline, his backup, had 37 attempts in that game). He has a respectable 7.3 yards/attempt and is on pace to throw for over 4000 yards, but a lot of that is extended running game, which is partly why he has just 9 TDs in six games.

He has two very talented wideouts in Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs, and has shown the ability to get the ball over the top to them; he's got a very strong arm. His accuracy on shorter routes still needs work (59.6% completions). Dykes has kept the offensive system simple; it looks like there are only one or two reads on most plays, despite having 3 or 4 wideouts lined up. I haven't yet seen Goff look off a read, reset himself in the pocket, and find an outlet. He's not really a threat to run, though he's not a statue in the pocket. He has some development to do.

18. Chris Harper California Soph

Harper isn't a Keenan Allen-level talent, but he is very good at this level. Fast, runs good routes, pretty good (not great) hands. His stats are somewhat inflated by the offense.

Goff's numbers have been padded by his number of passing attempts. I don't see an NFL future for him. Just another Air-Raid QB like Case Keenum and Colby Cameron.

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Goff's numbers have been padded by his number of passing attempts. I don't see an NFL future for him. Just another Air-Raid QB like Case Keenum and Colby Cameron.

Uh, the post you're responding to specifically notes the huge number of attempts. But the kid's just 19 years old; what would you have expected to see from him? It's not his fault he's in an offense with a lot of attempts.

I also would caution you against dismissing any player because of the offense he plays in. A lot of people dismissed Aaron Rodgers because Kyle Boller failed. They're individual players and need to be evaluated individually.

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Goff's numbers have been padded by his number of passing attempts. I don't see an NFL future for him. Just another Air-Raid QB like Case Keenum and Colby Cameron.

Uh, the post you're responding to specifically notes the huge number of attempts. But the kid's just 19 years old; what would you have expected to see from him? It's not his fault he's in an offense with a lot of attempts.

I also would caution you against dismissing any player because of the offense he plays in. A lot of people dismissed Aaron Rodgers because Kyle Boller failed. They're individual players and need to be evaluated individually.

With regards to the context of the rankings above, I'd rather put some more established Seniors, Juniors, and Sophomores over Goff. At this point, he doesn't look much different than other true Freshmen Davis Webb, Baker Mayfield, and John O'Korn.

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