'ridleyman said:
I'm not sure if I agree with all the "jumping ship" going on. Arian Foster just turned 26 and is in only his 3rd season as a full time starter.
For comparison:
Since becoming starters with their prospective teams:
Arian Foster - 3 seasons - 854 carries and 139 receptions. Turned 26 in August.
Ray Rice - 4 seasons - 1,016 carries and 257 receptions. Turns 26 in January.
Adrian Peterson - 6 seasons - 1601 carries and 166 receptions. Turns 27 in March.
LeSean McCoy - 3 seasons - 657 carries and 166 receptions. Turned 25 in July.
As far as touches goes, Foster doesn't seem to be at such a ridiculous pace that you should be scared to death of him. I know these are different kinds of runners, but it seems to me that if Adrian Peterson still has a couple years left in him, Arian should have at least a couple years left in him.
You comparing Peterson and Foster is not going to turn out well for you. And it's not the durability the season following a career carries threshold
its the season after a HUGE workload. History dictates that Foster may be screwed.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it just a year or two ago where there was a dicsussion about the HUGE concerns because foster, turner, and ADP had had major workloads? I think its too easy and a bit lazy to just point to the Eddie georges, Jamal andersons, and those types of big-carry seasons and say the sky is falling. The NFL today is different. The players run differently, take different punishment, gain their production in different ways. Overall, I'm ok with having a "concern" talk if a guy has a huge workload, but I'm not ok with picking and choosing the players to be concerned about. That one year, all you heard was gloom and doom over Turner's workload but you never heard a peep about ADP. Its favortism, pure and simple and for whatever reason, Foster has had to prove the critics wrong every yard along the way his entire career.I have a feeling that Foster is going to be one of these guys that people are going to look back on and see that he had an LT-like career. He's going to have a good concentration of differenc-making years, he's going to have immense FF value, and he's going to have longivity and the people that try to get cute and try to sell him before he hits 27 or whatever the new fountain of youth age is these days are going to look back and say "i should have seen him more like a Thomas Jones or Willis mcGahee instead of a Larry johnson...Probably could have won a few more years".
Looks as if you accidentally proved your own point wrong. You say you can't pick and choose who to be concerned about. The example you offer is AP vs. Turner. How has that turned out? Turner looks like he is running backwards and Peterson is having arguably the best season of his career.I think for all of those that oppose the stance to sell Foster based on the listed points, you may want to leave Peterson out of your comparison/argument.
As for Foster "having to prove the critics wrong", I don't get this argument. The backers complain that he doesn't get credit for what he does, don't compare him to this and that, put him on the same level as Peterson, Rice, etc. Instead of arguing the points given. The actual CONCRETE evidence we have (declining ypc, history of huge workload, etc). You'd rather take the little brother approach and just complain about him not getting his due. I've yet to see anyone actively try to refute the evidence.
Here's a great example of what he's talking about. Arian Foster was born September 24, 1986. Ray Rice was born less than 4 months later on January 22, 1987.Ray Rice has already had 1413 touches (1123 carries, 290 receptions). If he continues at his current pace at year's end he'll have had 1535 NFL touches.
Arian Foster has had 1055 touches (908 carries, 147 receptions). At his current pace he'll have 1216 NFL touches.
Why aren't we worried about Rice breaking down? They are essentially the same age for any purposes that matter, and Rice has endured the equivalent of an extra 300+ touch season.
The only difference is Foster's net ypc has dropped this year in the second half. I already posted his YPC. Let's compare what Houston and Baltimore are doing in play calling this year by half since we're comparing Rice and Foster.
Houston
1st half: 204 pass 151 rush
2nd half: 131 pass 194 rush
Baltimore:
1st half: 193 pass 121 rush
2nd half: 173 pass 122 rush
Almost looks like Houston has gone pretty one dimensional with the run late in the game because of game situation, while Baltimore is still running a normal offense in both halves, doesn't it?
If Gary Kubiak was passing the ball and using play action in the second half to make teams pay for playing the run, I expect we'd see Foster's average up where it normally is. But with their defense and over half their games having had huge leads by half or the end of the 3rd quarter, they haven't needed to. Take that into account when looking at Foster's performance this year. Last year the O-line was good enough it could dominate even against a lot of stacked fronts in the second half, but Houston wasn't playing with so many big leads... and really didn't have such leads in 2010. This year teams can close down the run if they sell out.
Yes, age will get to Foster some day, as will hits. But the actual situation this year suggests his performance is not about declining ability, and if we're going to base it on age and hits we should be just as worried about other players like Rice that you won't hear nearly so much about as you hear about Foster.
I couldn't agree more. People are really overthinking this.Also, I wonder if people are selling Rice and Peterson too.
