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Tavon Austin (1 Viewer)

I can't get over how people are still arguing about his size being relevant because "It's the NFL people are bigger, stronger and faster". It still doesn't change the fact that the kid has NEVER been hurt. Ever. Someone in this thread posted that he missed 1 practice out of like 406 his entire time at WVU. That's pure insanity, usually people will at least miss a practice here or there for something... ANYTHING. Whether it be a cold, an injury or just something that came up. He's talented, dedicated, has a good head on his shoulders (i.e. not Pacman) and is about as uninjury prone as you could possibly find for someone coming out of college. Most of these players come out with some large injury or surgery they had in High School/College. Not Tavon Austin, he broke his index finger after a game once. That's it... something that he had patched up and played with without any complications. So please... the guys in the NFL maybe bigger and stronger and faster than the ones in college. That doesn't stop Austin from being faster than all of those guys.
Watching his highlights, the main thing I noticed is he's VERY smart about avoiding contact. There are too many small guys that run into contact, but he's smart enough to go out of bounds instead of fighting for 3 more yards, go down ahead of the big tackle, etc. That's the key to a long career for a small guy.

 
leaving return yards aside, i think his rushing totals could have an impact on his overall production, depending on how much action he sees in that capacity...

since he is sometimes compared to a smaller percy harvin or randall cobb (he is admittedly smaller, but could be used in a similar capacity), it could be instructive to look at their rushing numbers...

harvin - in his first two seasons, he "only" had a combined 33 rushes... in 2009 he had 135 yards, averaging 9 YPC with no TDs, in 2010 he had 107 yards averaging 5.9 YPC with 1 TD (missing three games in the two years). in 2011 he had about 50% more carries than first two years combined, with 51 for 342 yards at a 6.7 YPC clip with 2 TDs (16 games). Last season, he had 22 carries for 96 yards, falling to 4.4 YPC with 1 TD, but that was in just 9 games... even with the lower YPC compared to previous seasons, prorated over a full season would have been just under 40 carries (again, tracking for more than first two seasons combined) for 170 yards and 2 TDs. NON-prorated, that is an average of 26.5 carries a season for 170 yards and 1 TD over his first four seasons. including a prorated 2012 - total of 123 carries, 754 yards and 5 TDs, yields an uptick to a bit more than 30 carries a season, 188.5 yards and 1.25 TD season. BTW, harvin finished 25, 20 & 7 at WR first three years, 43 in 2012, but prorated would have finished with same amount of fantasy points as 2011 when he was 7. his receiving totals, to see how manageable they might be for austin to approximate (austin is a somewhat polarizing player and this is seemingly a contentious issue)... in 2009 (60-790-6), 2010 (71-868-5), 2011 (87-967-6) and 2012 (62-677-3 in 9 games, prorated = 110-1,204-5)... even leaving out the stellar prorated reception projection for last seasons, harvin had a noticeable uptick in receiving totals from 2009-2010-2011... worth noting that in the first two years, even before the jump in rushing and receiving totals, he did well enough to finish 20 and 25 among WRs...

for perspective, if austin were to have three rushes every two games, that would be close to 25 carries in a season (if he plays 16 games)... no guarantee he will be as effective (harvin might have comparable speed and quickness and about 20 lbs bigger with stronger upper body), but more touches via rushing can only help the bottom line (unless it increases his exposure to injury?)... as to receiving, if austin were to average about four receptions a game, that would put him roughly in line and in same ball park as harvin's first few years... T.Y. hilton was one of top rookie WRs last year, and had 50-861-7 (with a robust 17.2 YPR)... he finished 25.

cobb - with his 2012 breakout i forgot he was used sparsely as a rookie in 2011 behind jennings, jordy nelson (HIS breakout), james jones, et al... at least it wouldn't seem chris givens (who imo could be in for a nice 2013 season after leading team as a rookie in 2012), austin pettis and brian quick represent as formidable a collective obstacle to austin receiving immediate time and action as cobb's GB counterparts... cobb had a negligible 2 carries for 5 yards as a rookie, and was 10-132 as a soph (no rushing TDs in NFL yet)... receiving he was just 25-375-1 with 95 rank in 2011, exploding for 80-954-8 in 2012, and a 17 finish... cobb is listed at 5'10" 190, so similar size to harvin, few inches and 10-15 pounds heavier than austin.

below is table from football outsiders where you can see WR rushing totals from 2012... harvin was in a class by himself with 21 rushes (again, in just 9 games)... cobb (10) and dexter mccluster (12) were the only other WRs with 10 or more rushes...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

this reminds me of a stat cited in an article i read recently...

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2013/5/29/4373488/st-louis-rams-offense-tavon-austin-wide-receiver-running-back-playbook

this was the business excerpt, an aaron schatz quote embedded in the article...

"...Since 1990, the only WR with over 25 carries from RB position are Harvin (52, 2011) and Metcalf (28, 1995)."

metcalf was a blast from the past name i hadn't heard in a while when he came to mind recently as a comp player, before reading this article...

right after, the writer of the article notes that mccluster (sometimes invoked as ANOTHER austin comp, but imo there are some important differences... while dimunitive, not in the same class speed/explosiveness-wise) ran the ball 114 times in 2011 (?), but that schatz was specifically referring to a WR rushing the ball FROM THE RB POSITION, which perhaps mccluster wasn't primarily?

in the comments section below this article, i found a couple observations that were intriguing and potentially germane to this conversation... mainly, i had assumed austin was a prep WR, possibly intuitivelly just because he seemed so natural at it... the fact that he had a RB background, COULD perhaps increase the chance rams look to exploit that facet of his multi-dimensional talent a bit more than if this were not the case?

in response to a comment that got the ball rolling on this sub-subject, checking for confirmation on reports someone read noting that backfield injuries were responsible for him being used more at RB as a senior, unlike prior seasons at w. virginia...

FIRST...

"WVU did have injuries in the backfield and he was initially brought in to help with that but it worked so well that it stayed in the playbook (if there was such a thing). Austin’s ability as a RB is not really a surprise since he was a prolific RB in high school and it was only after he was told at WVU he would have to sit behind Noel Devine or he could convert to a WR. Austin wanted to play right away so he reluctantly agreed! He made an outstanding decision!"

AND ANOTHER...

"Devine may have had the best lateral mobility I’ve ever seen on a college football field. There was no way anyone was taking carries from him, and it was in everyone’s best interest to get Austin on the field immediately, so Austin became a WR. When Devine graduated, Austin chose to stay at WR due to the increased draft potential he could garner as a WR. Not many NFL teams will consider drafting a 170 pound RB. Devine is a testament to that. Devine suffered a foot injury in a game versus LSU his senior year, and never fully recovered from it. He’s returning kicks in Canada now, but I’m not sure he’s the same player he was for 3+ years at WVU.

As for the question of who is better out of the backfield? The three most elusive RB’s I’ve witnessed are Barry Sanders, Devine, and Austin. I believe Austin is slightly better than Devine at setting up his blocks, and he is probably a more patient runner, although both were extremely patient behind the line. Austin has better field awareness and is more likely to get to the sideline before getting hit. But the biggest advantage Austin has over Devine is open field speed. After years of watching Pat White and Steve Slaton run away from everyone once in the open field, it was shocking to see how often Devine was caught from behind. The first 20 yards were like a nitro boost, but the top speed was not dominating. Austin, on the other hand, creates separation and continues to extend the gap between himself and those pursuing him all the way to the end zone. The only flaws you can find in Austin’s open field running (nit-picking) are his tendency to try to make a move on defenders chasing him downfield as opposed to simply outrunning them, and the 3-5 unnecessary yards he occasionally leaves on the field when he wisely ducks out of bounds to avoid contact. Austin holds virtually every record a high school RB can hold in the state of Maryland. Had he played four years of RB at WVU, he’d probably hold most of the records there too. I believe he’s a better RB than Devine, and he’s also one of the best WR’s ever to come through WVU. However he is utilized he will have an impact. Enjoy your shiny new weapon, Rams!"

* austin's mind boggling prep resume from his west virginia profile...

High School

- Coached by Lawrence Smith at Dunbar High in Baltimore

- Two-time Maryland Consensus Offensive Player of the Year

- Consensus first team all-state

- Set Maryland records for career points (790), touchdowns (123), total offensive yards (9,258)and rushing yards (7,962)

- Led Dunbar High to three consecutive Class 1A state titles

- As a senior, rushed for 2,660 yards and scored 34 touchdowns on just 218 carries for 12.2 yards per carry average Also returned 12 punts for 446 yards and a pair of touchdowns

for comparison purposes, below is excerpt of virginia prep legend harvin's resume taken from his florida profile (keeping in mind that they probably shouldn't be compared too literally, since it sounds like harvin was primarily lined up at WR, and austin at RB, but just as an illustration of their respective general explosiveness relative to peers)...

Finished his prep career with 75 catches for 1,313 yards with 14 touchdown receptions...Also rushed for 504 yards and 13 additional scores his senior season...Recorded a total of 33 touchdowns as a senior...Caught 58 passes for 1,016 yards (17.5 per catch) and 17 touchdowns while rushing 68 times for 726 yards (10.7 per carry) and 10 touchdowns as a junior en route to helping lead Landstown to Group AAA state championship...

 
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Sure he was. And he was sent packing too with nobody added because he wasn't valuable enough in that role. Getting back to Austin, I highly doubt he finishes with 1300+ and 13 touchdowns. That would be better than Julio Jones.
The fact that Avery was cut after the season does not change his role on the team or the depth chart for 2012.

I highly doubt Austin gets 1300 yards receiving, but 1300 yards and 13 TD's is doable, but I doubt it. If he is used frequently on the ground he could rack up say 400 yards rushing (only 25 yards per game) and 900 in the air. I'm thinking more like 800 in the air (50 yards per game) and 300 yards rushing and 10 combined TD's, but that's just me and that would be a great rookie season.
only 25 rushing yards per game? for a WR?

 
Rotoworld:

Appearing on NFL32 Tuesday, ESPN's Chris Mortensen said he expects the Rams to utilize first-round pick Tavon Austin "to the max" this season.
Before recommending Austin in fantasy football leagues, Mort said the Rams weren't sure if Austin let a ball hit the ground "all offseason." Mort expects Austin to line up all over the field, including at running back and in the slot. Austin's size (5-8 174) and hybrid status makes him hard to project from a fantasy standpoint, but the Rams didn't trade up to No. 8 to stash Austin on the sideline. At the very least, he's worth a draft pick as a high-upside WR3.
 
Tavon Austin: I'm one of Sam Bradford's 'new toys'

By Kevin Patra NFL.com

Expectations for Tavon Austin's rookie season with the St. Louis Rams are Rookie-of-the-Year high.

With that in mind, it's positive to hear the wide receiver tell NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano, in an interview that will air on Friday's "NFL Total Access," that he already has a rapport with quarterback Sam Bradford.

"He looked for me a lot at practice," Austin said. "He definitely believes in me and I definitely feel good about myself. He kind of talked to me, let me know the things I'm doing good, the things I'm doing bad as far as landmarks, if I should have kept the corner high or should I bend it off. I definitely believe he got a lot of trust in me and I got trust in him."

Austin chuckled at the notion that he was Bradford's new toy.

"I can say I'm one of his new toys," Austin said. "Me and Jared (Cook) and Stedman (Bailey) probably one of the new toys that came to the family. I just hope that my number gets called a lot and then at the end of the season he can really say I was one of his toys."

The Rams have the need and Austin has the talent. The connection will only grow through training camp, so it's a good bet Bradford will be flashing that Oklahoma smile at his "new toy" a lot throughout the 2013 season.

Catch the full interview with Tavon Austin tonight on NFL Network's "NFL Total Access" at 7 p.m. ET.

Follow Kevin Patra on Twitter @kpatra.
 
I've got serious man-love for this cat. He even showed up unexpectedly in my dreams last night. :oldunsure:

All I can say is, I hope he doesn't COMPLETELY tear it up in the preseason. He will already be costly as it is.

 
I've got serious man-love for this cat. He even showed up unexpectedly in my dreams last night. :oldunsure:

All I can say is, I hope he doesn't COMPLETELY tear it up in the preseason. He will already be costly as it is.
:goodposting:

Except for the dream part. My dream was about 2 weeks ago.

 
I've got serious man-love for this cat. He even showed up unexpectedly in my dreams last night. :oldunsure:

All I can say is, I hope he doesn't COMPLETELY tear it up in the preseason. He will already be costly as it is.
:goodposting:

Except for the dream part. My dream was about 2 weeks ago.
Part of the reason I love early drafts. WR31 in a keeper drafted this past Sunday that also awards points for return TDs. Obviously nobody knows if that's good value, but you have to think the Rams plan on getting him at least 100 touches this season, and if he breaks a big play in the preseason his value will skyrocket.

I've been waiting for an individual or Rams' WR corps spotlight to see some projections on him. I'm sure there will be an extreme range.

 
I've got serious man-love for this cat. He even showed up unexpectedly in my dreams last night. :oldunsure:

All I can say is, I hope he doesn't COMPLETELY tear it up in the preseason. He will already be costly as it is.
what are your projections for him? and what round in a redraft are you targeting him?

Forgive me if I have asked you before

 
Would love to see more projections and thoughts on Tavon. I was originally high on him but faced between a Jordy Nelson/James Jones and Tavon Austin I thnk you have to go with the proven product

 
Would love to see more projections and thoughts on Tavon. I was originally high on him but faced between a Jordy Nelson/James Jones and Tavon Austin I thnk you have to go with the proven product
FFC shows him going in the late 5th. Not sure what to think of that. Thats in the area of Brady, Newton, Decker, Garcon, Torry smith. Not really sure how to gauge that

 
Would love to see more projections and thoughts on Tavon. I was originally high on him but faced between a Jordy Nelson/James Jones and Tavon Austin I thnk you have to go with the proven product
FFC shows him going in the late 5th. Not sure what to think of that. Thats in the area of Brady, Newton, Decker, Garcon, Torry smith. Not really sure how to gauge that
Totally agree, he is a hard player to analyze and I am thinking it will be hard until Rams Homers see him at camp. WE draft before most of the preseason games have been played which makes it even worse.

I don't think you can project a huge amount of TD's and that's the problem I think 1100 and 6 tds would be his ceiling but there is going to be some tough weeks in that division and with a young offense red zone chances may be limited.

Players like Steve Smith have a lot less risk and can be had later then the flash in the pan type players

 
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.

 
I can't name any guys under 5'10, under 180 pounds that came in and took the league by storm. Even D Jax didn't put up top-25 FF numbers as a rookie and he was pretty decent. It's not popular to say around here but I'll bet against Austin this season if I had to pick a side.

 
I can't name any guys under 5'10, under 180 pounds that came in and took the league by storm. Even D Jax didn't put up top-25 FF numbers as a rookie and he was pretty decent. It's not popular to say around here but I'll bet against Austin this season if I had to pick a side.
Especially where he is being drafted.

 
I can't name any guys under 5'10, under 180 pounds that came in and took the league by storm. Even D Jax didn't put up top-25 FF numbers as a rookie and he was pretty decent. It's not popular to say around here but I'll bet against Austin this season if I had to pick a side.
I agree, he could work out but there is also the chance you are getting Peter Warrick

Tavon is a space player and there isn't as much space in the NFL even more so in his division. Even the best WR talents go through an adjustment period.

I could see him being used heavily on KR and PR though so total yardage leagues he could be a steal.

 
I can't name any guys under 5'10, under 180 pounds that came in and took the league by storm. Even D Jax didn't put up top-25 FF numbers as a rookie and he was pretty decent. It's not popular to say around here but I'll bet against Austin this season if I had to pick a side.
I'd argue his size could be considered a positive. Especially in redraft leagues. He won't have the same learning curve playing from the slot that a 6'3 220 pound receiver expected to be the #1 guy on the outside would have in trying to learn the entire route tree immediately.

The Rams are going to get him the ball in space. Short throws. Slants. WR screens. Bubble screens. Dump offs. Shovel passes. Shotgun handoffs. Reverses. They're going to design offense specifically to get the ball in his hands quickly. Throw in a few traditional handoffs, and you can really start to imagine the upside he has.

Comparing him to DeSean Jackson doesn't make much sense to me. He's always been an outside receiver running deep routes. He wasn't used anything like we should expect the Rams to use Austin.

 
Art Vandalay said:
ShaHBucks said:
I can't name any guys under 5'10, under 180 pounds that came in and took the league by storm. Even D Jax didn't put up top-25 FF numbers as a rookie and he was pretty decent. It's not popular to say around here but I'll bet against Austin this season if I had to pick a side.
I agree, he could work out but there is also the chance you are getting Peter Warrick

Tavon is a space player and there isn't as much space in the NFL even more so in his division. Even the best WR talents go through an adjustment period.

I could see him being used heavily on KR and PR though so total yardage leagues he could be a steal.
Interesting. I look at it the opposite way--NFL offenses are spreading out defenses more and more with 3-4 WR sets, hybrid TE's, and WR's/RB's who excel after the catch. If anything, Austin is entering the league at the perfect time. Offenses are attacking defenses aggressively through the air by creating space, and Austin is a beast in that regard.

 
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries.

60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.

 
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries.

60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.
60 carries would average out to around 3-4 carries a game. It's possible.

 
Art Vandalay said:
ShaHBucks said:
I can't name any guys under 5'10, under 180 pounds that came in and took the league by storm. Even D Jax didn't put up top-25 FF numbers as a rookie and he was pretty decent. It's not popular to say around here but I'll bet against Austin this season if I had to pick a side.
I agree, he could work out but there is also the chance you are getting Peter Warrick

Tavon is a space player and there isn't as much space in the NFL even more so in his division. Even the best WR talents go through an adjustment period.

I could see him being used heavily on KR and PR though so total yardage leagues he could be a steal.
Interesting. I look at it the opposite way--NFL offenses are spreading out defenses more and more with 3-4 WR sets, hybrid TE's, and WR's/RB's who excel after the catch. If anything, Austin is entering the league at the perfect time. Offenses are attacking defenses aggressively through the air by creating space, and Austin is a beast in that regard.
As of now I can't see myself drafting him before the likes of DX, Shorts, Mike Williams, Maclin, Miles Austin, or Lance Moore ect... in the WR3 range this season. Those guys will likely do what you hope Austin will. I really won't mind missing out. I can grab someone like Broyles later and have the same optimism in a spread-O.
 
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries.

60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.
I'm just looking at the situation. St. Louis traded up and used a premium pick on this kid. I expect them to utilize him in their offense in a variety of ways.

 
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries. 60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.
60 carries would average out to around 3-4 carries a game. It's possible.
3 carries per game would be 48, 60 is on the high end of that. IMO no way. Harvin's highest # of carries? 52. 2nd highest? 22. Cobb's high? 10.

You are basically saying Austin is going to come in a run the ball more than Harvin or Cobb ever has, and exponentially more than their average attempts. It's this kind of irresponsible projecting that causes disappointment in a rookie, and premature unloading if said player.

The dude is 175 lbs. I estimated 23 carries, and I think that is generous. There is no way he holds up to 4 NFL carries per game, and I don't think they will even give him 2 carries most games. JMHO

 
60 receptions, 900 yards, 24 rushes for 120 yards. 4-5 TDs.

FFC PPR ADP LOL = 6.10, i dunno what this 5th round talk is about

 
Art Vandalay said:
ShaHBucks said:
I can't name any guys under 5'10, under 180 pounds that came in and took the league by storm. Even D Jax didn't put up top-25 FF numbers as a rookie and he was pretty decent. It's not popular to say around here but I'll bet against Austin this season if I had to pick a side.
I agree, he could work out but there is also the chance you are getting Peter Warrick

Tavon is a space player and there isn't as much space in the NFL even more so in his division. Even the best WR talents go through an adjustment period.

I could see him being used heavily on KR and PR though so total yardage leagues he could be a steal.
I don't totally agree with that space player analogy, he is more then that... He can make people miss like no other runs precise routes, is explosive, quick, decisive, compact, and is actually going to be a nightmare out of the slot you are reaching comparing to warrick 80 catches 1100 and 8 70 carries for 400 yards and 2

1500 yards from scrimmage 10 tds and 80 catches is realistic

 
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries.60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.
60 carries would average out to around 3-4 carries a game. It's possible.
3 carries per game would be 48, 60 is on the high end of that. IMO no way. Harvin's highest # of carries? 52. 2nd highest? 22. Cobb's high? 10.

You are basically saying Austin is going to come in a run the ball more than Harvin or Cobb ever has, and exponentially more than their average attempts. It's this kind of irresponsible projecting that causes disappointment in a rookie, and premature unloading if said player.

The dude is 175 lbs. I estimated 23 carries, and I think that is generous. There is no way he holds up to 4 NFL carries per game, and I don't think they will even give him 2 carries most games. JMHO
Harvin was on a team with Adrian Peterson. Austin is on a team without an established running threat.

Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin? Harvin had 29 carries over the last 7 games following Peterson's injury that season. An average of 4.14 per game or a total of 66 prorated over the course of an entire season.

A "carry" doesn't have to be a traditional handoff. Maybe 60 seems high as a total figure, but when you look at it as an average of 3.75 per game it isn't so enormous. A reverse, a quick WR screen behind the line of scrimmage here, a toss sweep there, etc.

That being said, the amount of carries is arbitrary to me anyway. I'm more concerned about total touches. I expect the Rams to do everything in their power to get the ball in Austin's hands.

 
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries.60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.
60 carries would average out to around 3-4 carries a game. It's possible.
3 carries per game would be 48, 60 is on the high end of that. IMO no way. Harvin's highest # of carries? 52. 2nd highest? 22. Cobb's high? 10.

You are basically saying Austin is going to come in a run the ball more than Harvin or Cobb ever has, and exponentially more than their average attempts. It's this kind of irresponsible projecting that causes disappointment in a rookie, and premature unloading if said player.

The dude is 175 lbs. I estimated 23 carries, and I think that is generous. There is no way he holds up to 4 NFL carries per game, and I don't think they will even give him 2 carries most games. JMHO
Harvin was on a team with Adrian Peterson. Austin is on a team without an established running threat.

Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin? Harvin had 29 carries over the last 7 games following Peterson's injury that season. An average of 4.14 per game or a total of 66 prorated over the course of an entire season.

A "carry" doesn't have to be a traditional handoff. Maybe 60 seems high as a total figure, but when you look at it as an average of 3.75 per game it isn't so enormous. A reverse, a quick WR screen behind the line of scrimmage here, a toss sweep there, etc.

That being said, the amount of carries is arbitrary to me anyway. I'm more concerned about total touches. I expect the Rams to do everything in their power to get the ball in Austin's hands.
:goodposting:

 
Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin?
Yes. Harvin's rookie year would be more apt, not his 3rd year in the league, after they had been grooming him for more carries since he was drafted. Picking a 3rd year player, the most heavily used WR at RB in history... in the 7 game stretch where he got the most carries of his career (thus far, and likely ever) because AP was out... I don't think it's possible to cherry pick more than that. It's literally not possible.

Also you should consider that Harvin was arguably the second best RB on the team after AP. Austin, however, is likely only the 4th best RB on the team. He's also a rookie, and significantly smaller. If you want to be aggressive with Austin's rushing projections, Harvin's 1st and 2nd years are the places to look - 15 and 18 carries.

 
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ROYALWITCHEESE said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries.60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.
60 carries would average out to around 3-4 carries a game. It's possible.
3 carries per game would be 48, 60 is on the high end of that. IMO no way. Harvin's highest # of carries? 52. 2nd highest? 22. Cobb's high? 10.You are basically saying Austin is going to come in a run the ball more than Harvin or Cobb ever has, and exponentially more than their average attempts. It's this kind of irresponsible projecting that causes disappointment in a rookie, and premature unloading if said player.

The dude is 175 lbs. I estimated 23 carries, and I think that is generous. There is no way he holds up to 4 NFL carries per game, and I don't think they will even give him 2 carries most games. JMHO
Harvin was on a team with Adrian Peterson. Austin is on a team without an established running threat.

Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin? Harvin had 29 carries over the last 7 games following Peterson's injury that season. An average of 4.14 per game or a total of 66 prorated over the course of an entire season.

A "carry" doesn't have to be a traditional handoff. Maybe 60 seems high as a total figure, but when you look at it as an average of 3.75 per game it isn't so enormous. A reverse, a quick WR screen behind the line of scrimmage here, a toss sweep there, etc.

That being said, the amount of carries is arbitrary to me anyway. I'm more concerned about total touches. I expect the Rams to do everything in their power to get the ball in Austin's hands.
:goodposting:
I'll bet either one of you that he doesn't get 50 rush attempts.

 
Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin?
Yes. Harvin's rookie year would be more apt, not his 3rd year in the league, after they had been grooming him for more carries since he was drafted. Picking a 3rd year player, the most heavily used WR at RB in history... in the 7 game stretch where he got the most carries of his career (thus far, and likely ever) because AP was out... I don't think it's possible to cherry pick more than that. It's literally not possible.

Also you should consider that Harvin was arguably the second best RB on the team after AP. Austin, however, is likely only the 4th best RB on the team. He's also a rookie, and significantly smaller. If you want to be aggressive with Austin's rushing projections, Harvin's 1st and 2nd years are the places to look - 15 and 18 carries.
I think you are way off base. Tavon is a unique player and shouldn't be compared to Harvin. I think Sproles is a much better comparison for what I expect his workload to look like. Similar size and playing style. 50 carries 70-80 grabs

 
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Grahamburn said:
1,100 and 6 is probably a pretty good estimate. 70 receptions at 11 yards per catch from the slot. 60 carries at 5 yards per. However, that doesn't necessarily look like a "ceiling."

He averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season on 114 catches. 8.9 yards per carry on 72 carries. 15 TDs.
No way he gets even close to 60 carries.60 rec 780 yards, 23 rush 125 yards, 5 offensive TD.
60 carries would average out to around 3-4 carries a game. It's possible.
3 carries per game would be 48, 60 is on the high end of that. IMO no way. Harvin's highest # of carries? 52. 2nd highest? 22. Cobb's high? 10.You are basically saying Austin is going to come in a run the ball more than Harvin or Cobb ever has, and exponentially more than their average attempts. It's this kind of irresponsible projecting that causes disappointment in a rookie, and premature unloading if said player.

The dude is 175 lbs. I estimated 23 carries, and I think that is generous. There is no way he holds up to 4 NFL carries per game, and I don't think they will even give him 2 carries most games. JMHO
Harvin was on a team with Adrian Peterson. Austin is on a team without an established running threat.

Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin? Harvin had 29 carries over the last 7 games following Peterson's injury that season. An average of 4.14 per game or a total of 66 prorated over the course of an entire season.

A "carry" doesn't have to be a traditional handoff. Maybe 60 seems high as a total figure, but when you look at it as an average of 3.75 per game it isn't so enormous. A reverse, a quick WR screen behind the line of scrimmage here, a toss sweep there, etc.

That being said, the amount of carries is arbitrary to me anyway. I'm more concerned about total touches. I expect the Rams to do everything in their power to get the ball in Austin's hands.
:goodposting:
I'll bet either one of you that he doesn't get 50 rush attempts.
I'd double that
 
Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin?
Yes. Harvin's rookie year would be more apt, not his 3rd year in the league, after they had been grooming him for more carries since he was drafted. Picking a 3rd year player, the most heavily used WR at RB in history... in the 7 game stretch where he got the most carries of his career (thus far, and likely ever) because AP was out... I don't think it's possible to cherry pick more than that. It's literally not possible.

Also you should consider that Harvin was arguably the second best RB on the team after AP. Austin, however, is likely only the 4th best RB on the team. He's also a rookie, and significantly smaller. If you want to be aggressive with Austin's rushing projections, Harvin's 1st and 2nd years are the places to look - 15 and 18 carries.
I think you are way off base. Tavon is a unique player and shouldn't be compared to Harvin. I think Sproles is a much better comparison for what I expect his workload to look like. Similar size and playing style. 50 carries 70-80 grabs
I think you are way off base. Harvin is a unique player and shouldn't be compared to Austin. I think Sproles is, actually, a RB.

Sproles has never seen LESS than 37 carries outside of his rookie year. And his rookie year? 8 carries. Sproles is a good pass-catching RB, but a RB nonetheless, who had over 800 carries in a major conference in college. Finally, even diminutive Sproles has 15 pounds on Austin, and is significantly stockier because he's an inch shorter. Randel Cobb is a better comparison - and even he only managed 10 carries on a team that was desperate for a RB.

For comparison, Harvin had ~200 carries in 3 years. And I don't have the facts in front of me to support this, but would wager that Harvin lined up as a RB, behind the QB, way more in college, whereas many of Tavon's rushes were lateral screens and what not.

Cobb had ~225 carries in college in 3 years, but played part time QB. Austin had 109 in 4 years.

 
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Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin?
Yes. Harvin's rookie year would be more apt, not his 3rd year in the league, after they had been grooming him for more carries since he was drafted. Picking a 3rd year player, the most heavily used WR at RB in history... in the 7 game stretch where he got the most carries of his career (thus far, and likely ever) because AP was out... I don't think it's possible to cherry pick more than that. It's literally not possible.

Also you should consider that Harvin was arguably the second best RB on the team after AP. Austin, however, is likely only the 4th best RB on the team. He's also a rookie, and significantly smaller. If you want to be aggressive with Austin's rushing projections, Harvin's 1st and 2nd years are the places to look - 15 and 18 carries.
I think you are way off base. Tavon is a unique player and shouldn't be compared to Harvin. I think Sproles is a much better comparison for what I expect his workload to look like. Similar size and playing style. 50 carries 70-80 grabs
I think you are way off base. Harvin is a unique player and shouldn't be compared to Austin. I think Sproles is, actually, a RB.

Sproles has never seen LESS than 37 carries outside of his rookie year. And his rookie year? 8 carries. Sproles is a good pass-catching RB, but a RB nonetheless, who had over 800 carries in a major conference in college. Finally, even diminutive Sproles has 15 pounds on Austin, and is significantly stockier because he's an inch shorter. Randel Cobb is a better comparison - and even he only managed 10 carries on a team that was desperate for a RB.

For comparison, Harvin had ~200 carries in 3 years. And I don't have the facts in front of me to support this, but would wager that Harvin lined up as a RB, behind the QB, way more in college, whereas many of Tavon's rushes were lateral screens and what not.

Cobb had ~225 carries in college in 3 years, but played part time QB. Austin had 109 in 4 years.
I guess we will see but I would bet STL is in a lot of 3rd and longs this year and I bet Austin is in the backfield for most of them. Lots of draw and screens ala Sproles

 
He doesn't run with the power of Spoles or Harvin. It's a pretty drastic over evaluation thinking he can do what they have in the NFL from the start.

 
Is Harvin's 2011 a bad comparison for Austin?
Yes. Harvin's rookie year would be more apt, not his 3rd year in the league, after they had been grooming him for more carries since he was drafted. Picking a 3rd year player, the most heavily used WR at RB in history... in the 7 game stretch where he got the most carries of his career (thus far, and likely ever) because AP was out... I don't think it's possible to cherry pick more than that. It's literally not possible.

Also you should consider that Harvin was arguably the second best RB on the team after AP. Austin, however, is likely only the 4th best RB on the team. He's also a rookie, and significantly smaller. If you want to be aggressive with Austin's rushing projections, Harvin's 1st and 2nd years are the places to look - 15 and 18 carries.
I chose Harvin's 2011 because the previous poster alluded to his high career carry total being less than 60. His career high came in that year. All I was pointing out was the Vikings' use of Harvin in the running game after Adrian Peterson was no longer available, and those carry totals prorated would be north of 60. They used Harvin to run the ball an average of 4.14 times per game when they no longer had the best runner in the NFL. The Rams don't have Adrian Peterson. They have 3 unproven players. If Austin can rip off 7 yards a pop with minimal carries I think they'll sacrifice a few handoffs from Pead, Stacy, and Richardson.

My "projection" would have Austin at 3.75 carries per game and 4.3 receptions per game. The point is, again, with the Rams investment in him I expect Austin to be heavily utilized in the offense in a variety of ways from day 1.

I wanted to make a comparison to Reggie Bush here, who had 243 touches his rookie season, but I'm sure everyone will just tell me Tavon is smaller than him. I don't think he'll have nearly that many touches, but I can see the Rams taking a similar approach and making him a focal point of their offense right away.

 
Austin probably overrated this year in standard leagues.

But severely underrated in PPR + return leagues. :ph34r:

 
Reggie Bush is also... a RB. So is Darren Sproles. When cherry-picking WRs for carries isn't enough, turn to RBs! The most relevant WRs mentioned, Harvin and Cobb, are also bigger, and had more experience in college running the ball. Whether it's 10 carries, or let's go crazy, 30!... it probably isn't going to significantly effect Austin's fantasy value.

Instead of focusing on this, you should consider things like Austin's playing speed in camp/pre-season, the state of the o-line, how Bradford looks, is the offense gelling, will they go to a hurry-up or be a traditional Fisher offense? etc.

finally,

compare Austin

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0224/nfl_a_austin_gb1_400.jpg

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0402/nfl_u_austin_wm_400.jpg

with Harvin

http://overtimeathletes.com/wp-content/uploads2/2011/07/percy-harvin-workout-240x300.jpg

http://www.gatorcountry.com/images/uploads/football/Percy_charity_challenge.jpg

More appropriate - DeSean Jackson at 5'10, 175 pounds (slightly taller).

http://www.stack.com/images/magazine/07_01_2011/Distractionjpg_00000009469.jpg

http://blog.stack.com/wp-content/uploads/SampleGA261-629x943.jpg

DeSean had 11, 16, and 17 rushes during his first 3 years (for 96, 104, and 137 yards... mostly end around and the stuff that Austin might see).

 
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I love Austin, but his ADP is just too high for a rookie that doesn't seem to be a true WR or RB and is on what has been one of the league's worst offenses.

 
I see a Austin as rather comparable to Jahvid Best. Best was a little thicker, but their styles seem very similar to me and Best was incredibly effective as a pass catcher and gave defenses nightmares in open space.

 
As sceptical as I am on him, I'd draft him as a WR3 in 12 team PPR leagues and then trade him during the pre-season once the hype train starts to really roll(assuming he makes a nice play or has some good numbers). He's the kind of player you draft now as a WR3 and then sit on him while his stock goes up. I'd consider drafting him as the 27th WR off the board(his current consensus ADP in PPR) to flip him later, but there's no way I reach for him as a top 20 WR.

Even if he does produce as a top 20 WR, the injury risk is definitely there with his serious lack of size.

 
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I give up. Best is a RB. And 25 pounds heavier. And a RB.
It's best to just give up. Reading thru this thread is brutal. The points you've made have been consistently ignored and talked around. I like Austin but he is easily the most overhyped SP player around this year. There is some massive amounts of irrational thinking going on here and it's setting him up for a huge let down IMO.

 
I give up. Best is a RB. And 25 pounds heavier. And a RB.
What does that have to do with his speed, quickness and running style?
OK, Best is Fast, and Austin is fast. Check. CJ Spiller, Bo Jackson, and Usain Bolt are also fast. Deion Sanders. Rocket Ismail.

(not sure how this is helpful)
I didn't just say speed. I said running style and quickness. I think he can be used in space in the passing game in a similar way as Best was. I don't think he will be as successful though as he doesn't have Calvin stretching the D.
 
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I give up. Best is a RB. And 25 pounds heavier. And a RB.
It's best to just give up. Reading thru this thread is brutal. The points you've made have been consistently ignored and talked around.I like Austin but he is easily the most overhyped SP player around this year. There is some massive amounts of irrational thinking going on here and it's setting him up for a huge let down IMO.
Tavon is small but with the small WR's we've seen be very successful (Harvin, Cobb, Welker, Hilton, DeSean) why so much doubt about him? He could certainly stand to gain some weight but if he can avoid hits the way he was in college then I don't see what there is to worry about. He has 80 catches written all over him.

 
I give up. Best is a RB. And 25 pounds heavier. And a RB.
It's best to just give up. Reading thru this thread is brutal. The points you've made have been consistently ignored and talked around.I like Austin but he is easily the most overhyped SP player around this year. There is some massive amounts of irrational thinking going on here and it's setting him up for a huge let down IMO.
Tavon is small but with the small WR's we've seen be very successful (Harvin, Cobb, Welker, Hilton, DeSean) why so much doubt about him? He could certainly stand to gain some weight but if he can avoid hits the way he was in college then I don't see what there is to worry about. He has 80 catches written all over him.
Comments like this is why I'm "down" on him. You say 80 catches like its a floor. How many rookies have posted 80 catch seasons, ever? Add to it the ridiculous 60 carry projections and the expectation that has been set is truly absurd. I'm not down on him. I'm just not crazy over him.
 

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