ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
I like the Jackson comparison as well, although I think he tracks the deep ball much better and is able to play outside more effectively.
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Tavon Austin (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JAA
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
elguapo07
Footballguy
He's a tough comp but is he a more explosive and versatile Earnest Givens with a touch of Terry Metcalf?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I'm not sure, but I have not seen every Austin game. I was just asking since you weren't clear.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I brought up Bush because, as a rookie, he was immediately inserted as the center piece of the Saints offense and had 88 receptions. Most of those coming on short/quick throws. I expect the Rams to use Austin in similar way.
And the comparison to Jackson just seems so off to me. He plays a completely different position than Austin will play.
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cstu
Footballguy
I didn't say 80 catches from day 1 but by his 3rd year you think he doesn't have a good chance of that?
TheFanatic
Footballguy
The problem is that there is no real comp to this kid so everyone is trying to compare apples to oranges. You don't like the comparisons, we get it. Nobody else really likes the comparisons either, but they are throwing out some discussion rather than complaining over and over and over and over about the comps not being good or being downright terrible. No comp is going to be good with Tavon because nobody that small and wickedly fast has been drafted that high.
Here's a thought. Maybe offer something constructive other than, "Tavon is not _______. Tavon plays WR. Tavon is 20 lbs lighter." We get it already. Oh, and did I mention we get it?
I agree that 60 carries is nuts. I'm thinking 32 carries is his ceiling in his first year and that is optimistic. Seems like 2 carries a game isn't much, but the guy is going to be playing special teams, lining up for probably 40 routes a game plus lining up in the backfield? Seems much to me. And they may not use him in the running game right away so he can concentrate on WR. So maybe he doesn't run the ball till week 8. I wouldn't expect more than about 10 carries from that point on.
jurb26
Footballguy
Yes, by year three I can see that. Maybe I misread your post. I was referring to the projections for this year only, which are pretty out of hand for a rookie IMO. I think Patterson will have slightly less stats and he can be had at significantly less of a cost.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Royal had a very nice rookie season IIR. One of my better moves, not just picking that guy up, but trading him after the season for a first rounder...
cstu
Footballguy
I re-read your post and saw that you were talking about this year, in which case I agree with you. I do think he'll have at least 60 catches and 15-20 carries, which puts him around low WR2 for this year.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
I know guys in my league who think he is MORE valuable than Crabtree already. Is that surprising to anyone else or is it just me?
karmarooster
Footballguy
I'm only talking about redraft this year. Austin has a high ceiling for his future years. I'm only talking about him as a rookie.
Harvin - 60 rec/800 yards, 15 rushes/134 yards. It would be AWESOME for Tavon to hit that mark, but I think it's his ceiling.
Hilton - 50 rec/850 and 7 TD. That would also be an awesome result for Tavon, and it's a great comp based on size (5'9, 175). Hilton was one of many WRs on a passing offense with a young QB... similar to Tavon.
DeSean - 62 rec/912 yards, 17 rushes/96 yards. Another good comp, but I don't think Austin will have as high a YPC, although he could based on elusiveness. But again represents Austin's ceiling of up to 1,000 yards, probably 900/100 rushing receiving.
Cobb - 25 rec/375 yards, 5 rushes/2 yards. This is also a REAL possibility for Austin - not that I think it's likely. But Givens and Quick have a year more of experience, plus there's Dobson, and TEs. I figure STL to give Austin reps because of his draft price, but he's going to be one weapon on a team with many other WRs and 2 TEs. This is probably his floor.
Welker - didn't have a catch for 3 years, then 29 rec/434 yards. Austin's floor, similar to Cobb's numbers.
Jackson, actually, plays the exact same position that Austin will play, except that he operates more as a deep threat.
I also think it's more likely he gets 2-3 return TDs than he has more than 16+ carries.
But I think the Rams offense is being designed to run super fast, out of the shutgun, and spray the ball around to a number of weapons they have, based out of multiple WR and multiple TE sets. I don't think its going to be like the Denver offense when it was setup to force the ball to Royal and Marshall.
Also - Dexter McCluster played RB in college and ran for over 1,000 yards in the SEC. He's basically a failed convert to WR, but his rookie year was 21rec/209yards plus 18 rushes/71 yards. But I think Austin has way more talent at WR, and even less ability to play RB.
Revised, more-likely estimate:
50 rec, 650 yards, 16 rushes for 96 yards, 8 total TDs including 1 PR
Not bad, but not worth his current ADP. That comp of his, TY Hilton, in his 2nd year, on a team with a more proven passing attack... who already put up 50 / 850 / 7 ... as a rookie, with a rookie QB, looks like a much better value a round later. So does DeSean jackson, that other comp, playing on an offense that might run a ton of screens to him, and who's already shown 1,000 yard ability, and is available about two full rounds later. There are tons of other examples.
At Austin's current ADP of 6.11, or WR25, he better have high end WR3 or WR2 numbers to justify that draft position. But there's no water to squeeze out of this rock for value. All the reasons that make it smart to wait on QB, stock up on RB, and hit WR for late value suggests that he's over-valued right now.
I agree those are decent places to look. They suggest a ceiling and floor for Austin, and temper the 80 catch suggestion.
Harvin - 60 rec/800 yards, 15 rushes/134 yards. It would be AWESOME for Tavon to hit that mark, but I think it's his ceiling.
Hilton - 50 rec/850 and 7 TD. That would also be an awesome result for Tavon, and it's a great comp based on size (5'9, 175). Hilton was one of many WRs on a passing offense with a young QB... similar to Tavon.
DeSean - 62 rec/912 yards, 17 rushes/96 yards. Another good comp, but I don't think Austin will have as high a YPC, although he could based on elusiveness. But again represents Austin's ceiling of up to 1,000 yards, probably 900/100 rushing receiving.
Cobb - 25 rec/375 yards, 5 rushes/2 yards. This is also a REAL possibility for Austin - not that I think it's likely. But Givens and Quick have a year more of experience, plus there's Dobson, and TEs. I figure STL to give Austin reps because of his draft price, but he's going to be one weapon on a team with many other WRs and 2 TEs. This is probably his floor.
Welker - didn't have a catch for 3 years, then 29 rec/434 yards. Austin's floor, similar to Cobb's numbers.
But Austin doesn't play on an offense like the Saints, and won't have 88 receptions as a RB also lining up at WR. Bush plays a completely different position, because he's a RB/WR hybrid. Austin is a tiny WR, and a microscopic RB. Dany Woodhead, a tiny RB, is 25 pounds heavier.
Jackson, actually, plays the exact same position that Austin will play, except that he operates more as a deep threat.
There are decent comps - they happen to be small, athletic WRs. There are plenty of them so we don't need to consider RBs. I agree that 32 carries is probably an optimistic ceiling. More realistically 10-16.
I also think it's more likely he gets 2-3 return TDs than he has more than 16+ carries.
Royal is another decent comp based on size and position, ignoring the draft position. If Austin shows up in camp and pre-season as good of a route runner as Royal, it might suggest increasing his receptions.
But I think the Rams offense is being designed to run super fast, out of the shutgun, and spray the ball around to a number of weapons they have, based out of multiple WR and multiple TE sets. I don't think its going to be like the Denver offense when it was setup to force the ball to Royal and Marshall.
Also - Dexter McCluster played RB in college and ran for over 1,000 yards in the SEC. He's basically a failed convert to WR, but his rookie year was 21rec/209yards plus 18 rushes/71 yards. But I think Austin has way more talent at WR, and even less ability to play RB.
"At least" 60 and 15-20 carries, is IMO closer to his ceiling, than his floor.
Revised, more-likely estimate:
50 rec, 650 yards, 16 rushes for 96 yards, 8 total TDs including 1 PR
Not bad, but not worth his current ADP. That comp of his, TY Hilton, in his 2nd year, on a team with a more proven passing attack... who already put up 50 / 850 / 7 ... as a rookie, with a rookie QB, looks like a much better value a round later. So does DeSean jackson, that other comp, playing on an offense that might run a ton of screens to him, and who's already shown 1,000 yard ability, and is available about two full rounds later. There are tons of other examples.
At Austin's current ADP of 6.11, or WR25, he better have high end WR3 or WR2 numbers to justify that draft position. But there's no water to squeeze out of this rock for value. All the reasons that make it smart to wait on QB, stock up on RB, and hit WR for late value suggests that he's over-valued right now.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
60 carries is high. My apologies. I'll wait until we see how they're using him in training camp and preseason games then re-evaluate a projection.
Like Fanatic said, you can't really compare him to those other players. No team has drafted a player with Austin's skill set this high before.
The Saints were not a juggernaut offense yet when they drafted Bush. That was Brees' first season with them. Bush came to that team and they built the offense around him. He lined up all over the formation. Yes, Austin and Bush play different positions on paper, but the Rams aren't bound by the "WR" next to Austin's name just as the Saints weren't bound to Bush's position. They can get Austin the ball any way they'd like.
I don't expect them to use him like the Eagles used DeSean. He was an outside player who basically ran 9 routes and had his number called for an occasional reverse.
Randall Cobb came to a Packers team with established receiving threats and wasn't a super high pick. There wasn't any pressure to get him involved right away, but he clearly showed a smaller player can make a major impact if he's utilized consistently within the offense.
I don't mind the Harvin comparisons, but that was Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson's team when Percy was drafted. Not to mention Sidney Rice's breakout season was 2009 as well.
Eddie Royal, Dexter McCluster. Again, these guys weren't invested in by their organizations with top 10 picks, and they're only being compared because of their size.
The questions I keep asking myself regarding Tavon Austin: Who do the Rams have that will command the football? Why would they move up to draft this kid with the 8th pick if they thought he was too small to be a focal point of their offense?
jurb26
Footballguy
I feel like people are trying to talk themselves into ranking Austin so highly. How many WR in the history of the NFL have ever truly been the focal point of their offense? The list is small, very small. And for good reason. WR is a dependent position in the NFL. Only a handful of the truly elite WRs have ever managed being the focal point of their teams offense. Yet here we are talking ourselves into a rookie WR becoming just that. Sorry, but this just seems extremely unlikely. Austin will be a function of the offense. Maybe he will be a big function of it in tapers of WRs, bit he will no way be the focal point of it. This is a Jeff Fisher team, the running game will be the focal point. The only reason we can't name a singular player is because the St. L backfield is a mess right now. Regardless, Fisher will center this offense around the running game, RBBC or a feature guy and the passing game will stem from that IMO.
This is paralysis by analysis. Why does a rookie drafted 8th overall HAVE to be the immediate focal point of the offense? If he were a running back, sure. But again, this is a WR. Oh and Peter Warrick was drafted 4th, higher than Austin. Troy Williamson was drafted 7th, just like Austin. Travis Taylor was taken 10th. All these guys are more closely related to Austin than people in here seem to want to recognize. The point being; yes Austin is unique but we are not exactly breaking the mold here like many are trying to make us believe.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
The Rams have numerous options and rely on Auston as much as people think. Givens and Quick will be on the outside with Cook and Auston in the slot with Kendricks at TE. This won't be their base, so Auston might not even be a 3 down WR. He will be more of a gadget player and be lined up all over. But on running downs, you might see Givens and Quick on the outside, Cook in the slot and Kendricks at TE. They will limit Auston's plays to keep him fresh and protect him. You also have emerging WR Pettis and rookie Bailey, who will both see time, especially Pettis. Pettis is in the Boldin mold who I hear they are very high on and keeps getting better and better. That's a lot balls to go around. I personally hope they limit Auston's touches because I want to see him last. He has a chance to be one of the most explosive players the league has ever seen. Sam is going to have a huge year with all these toys and an upgraded line. Also, keep an on RB Zac Stacy. He's going to be the real deal.
karmarooster
Footballguy
In general I think we're on the same wavelength as 'downers' for Austin as his current ADP, but I do disagree to some extent about the STL offense. From a personnel standpoint, it looks like the Rams are gearing up for 600+ passing attempts in an offense similar to what Bradford executed at OK. This is still a Fisher team, but I don't think they're going to play Fisher ball. Instead I think Bradford will spray the ball around to 4-5 WRs and 1-2 TEs, with 3 RBs mixed in for balance, not as ground-control. So basically IMO the 'spread the ball' mentality will be the limit on Austin's usage, not the ground game/Fisherball (in addition to his limitation as a rookie WR).
Oh, and Austin's other limit - PR and KR. DeSean jackson had ~50 touches for KR/PR as a rookie.
I don't quite understand your conclusion re: the McCluster comp.ShaHBucks said:
Austin is a more talented WR, and a less talented/experienced "RB" than McCluster. As a senior, McCluster had 180 rushes for 1,110+ yards, as a straight up traditional RB in the SEC. Austin had ~100 mostly gimmicky rushes as a WR/RB hybrid in the Big East. Watching Austin's highlights, I saw only 1 inside zone-read handoff, most of his carries were toss, sweep, outside zone read, and end arounds.
From what I read on Austin, he could've played RB for WV, but they had Noel Devine, and then Austin opted to stay at WR to increase his draft value. Anyways, the point is he has very little experience running the ball, less than McCluster. So, my primary purpose of the McCluster comp was to illustrate that Austin won't have 20+ rushes, not to suggest that McCluster is any kind of limit on Austin as a WR.
Seems to me like the Rams drafted Austin to be another weapon on a shotgun-based, aerial offense that may or may not run the hurry up. I don't think you can make the conclusion "they drafted him 7th" therefore, he'll have a ton of touches on offense. They drafted him 7th for his exceptional athleticism , and probably intend to utilize him during his rookie year as a WR2/3 weapon, the occasional reverse, and lots of PRs.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
karmarooster
Footballguy
Think about it... how many RBs go in the top 10? How many 175 pound RBs go in the top 10? Of course he has increased draft value as a WR than a RB. And, see this from the previous page:
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Phenix
Footballguy
Most overvalued rookie in dynasty leagues that I have seen in quite some time. This helps validate.
Rams COO Kevin Demoff suggested the team won't necessarily have any one receiver catch 70-plus passes in 2013, but "four or five" players who "catch 40-50."
"The goal this year is for Sam (Bradford) to be able to throw to the "open" player," Demoff explained, "and I expect that we will get meaningful contributions from all five wide receivers, the two tight ends, and the running backs. ... I think that is where we are evolving, letting the down, distance, scheme, and coverage dictate who becomes the targeted player." It's a reminder that Tavon Austin is being overdrafted at his current sixth-round ADP. The Rams are going to run a spread-the-wealth offense in 2013.
Rams COO Kevin Demoff suggested the team won't necessarily have any one receiver catch 70-plus passes in 2013, but "four or five" players who "catch 40-50."
"The goal this year is for Sam (Bradford) to be able to throw to the "open" player," Demoff explained, "and I expect that we will get meaningful contributions from all five wide receivers, the two tight ends, and the running backs. ... I think that is where we are evolving, letting the down, distance, scheme, and coverage dictate who becomes the targeted player." It's a reminder that Tavon Austin is being overdrafted at his current sixth-round ADP. The Rams are going to run a spread-the-wealth offense in 2013.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
That plan sounds good in July, but it will change as soon as he takes a bubble screen 79 yards to the house. You don't take a receiver with the 8th pick to have him share the ball with the likes of Austin Pettis and Chris Givens. My guess is that Demoff is trying not to put too much pressure on the kid. It's not like he's going to come out and say "Austin is our savior! We will feed him the ball as often as possible."
Barring injury, it would be a huge shock if Austin doesn't lead this team in receptions and yards.... by a wide margin.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Whoa there. "The likes of Chris Givens"? He is the WR1 and is the best WR on the roster--including Austin. Going into year 2, I expect nothing but improvement. He has had nothing but positive buzz this offseason, and I would expect him to pace them in receiving yards.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I was talking pedigree. Givens was a 4th-rounder. And we'll agree to disagree about who will lead the team in yards.
Phenix
Footballguy
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Anyone in the "the Rams drafted him high" camp, I hope your hand doesn't get tired from carrying a torch for Isaiah Pead and Brian Quick into this season as well.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'll never forget where I was when Isaiah Pead and Brian Quick got drafted in the Top-10!!!
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Richardson and Givens didn't have the draft pedigree that Pead and Quick had. It could make no difference for Austin, but it still should be noted.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Listen, I have nothing against those who aren't overly impressed with Austin.
I just think those people will be kicking themselves for missing the boat.
I just think those people will be kicking themselves for missing the boat.
Phenix
Footballguy
I personally think Bailey was the better WR at WV and will be a better WR in the NFL.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I don't think Bailey is terrible by any means, but I'll come back with a high five for you if this one comes to fruition.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I will be perfectly content to be the guy who missed out on Austin if he becomes a really good player.
I don't think he will be any kind of longterm consistently good player. I can see a game here and a game there where he makes a couple huge plays and people get all excited and wet themselves, but he is on my do not draft list......meaning I would not draft or trade for him anywhere close to his market value.
I can't sit here and give examples, numbers, measurables, or stats to back up my feelings other than the thought of him taking a hit like johnny Knox and getting broken in half. Not to mention his serious concussion risk due to being so much lighter than everyone else on an NFL field.
He will be fun to watch though. Hope he does well, but if he does it will be against me, not for me.
I don't think he will be any kind of longterm consistently good player. I can see a game here and a game there where he makes a couple huge plays and people get all excited and wet themselves, but he is on my do not draft list......meaning I would not draft or trade for him anywhere close to his market value.
I can't sit here and give examples, numbers, measurables, or stats to back up my feelings other than the thought of him taking a hit like johnny Knox and getting broken in half. Not to mention his serious concussion risk due to being so much lighter than everyone else on an NFL field.
He will be fun to watch though. Hope he does well, but if he does it will be against me, not for me.
cusefan115
Footballguy
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
I suspect it was more conjecture based on size comparison. Smaller players like Woodhead and Welker seem to be able to tuck and duck and at impact and hold their own. But the Johnny Knox visual - ughh.
ETA a link to the video
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yes. Common sense and physics, and knowing what causes a concussion. It's a small factor, not like its my main reasoning. Not even close. Injury and durablity in general is a major factor for me.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
LOL
cusefan115
Footballguy
That's fine. I was just curious. I personally don't really see size as a factor on the chances of sustaining a concussion but to each his own.
cusefan115
Footballguy
Really? Glad its so simple for you guys. Im guessing you are engineers then. Its not as easy as simply plugging this into you elementary force equation. But thanks for the contribution. All i did was ask if there was a source for the statement. There was really no reason to flame my comment.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Physics 101 man. It's a fact, not some theory.
To each his own indeed.
It does not mean he WILL have concussion issues. But if you put his exact head on a heavier frame that sustains the exact same hits, the concussion risk is less.
Some people are more prone to concussions no matter what size they are. We do not know austins personal tolerance for concussions, but I do KNOW its higher than if he was a larger player.
As I said, and since its unknown for his specific head, its a SMALL factor for me, but a factor none the less.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If you want a source, go look it up. You will find it.
cusefan115
Footballguy
I think you are simplifying this way too much. All the parts of the equation are moving. I'll hold off taking it as a given until I see some proof.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Knox more of a straight-line-speed guy? Austin is ridiculously elusive. It won't be easy for a defender to square him up for a kill shot. And Bradford is smart enough not to hang him out to dry in front of a safety.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
While true..............do we really believe the dude wont take any nice square hits because of this>> Nobody says it even needs to be when the ball is in his hands.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
For the love of God, at what point will you acknowledge I said this is a SMALL part of the equation for me??? Not to mention it is FACTUALLy backed up by the wonderful reasearch of sir Isaac Newton a very, very long time ago.
And of course I am simplifying it, duh
Unless Austin would like to come over my house and let me slam a wall into him at different speeds and then scan his brains with high tech intruments to test his consussion and brain trauma tolerance, I PROBABLY can't give you specifics
cusefan115
Footballguy
This is over for me already lol. I simply asked if you had a source for the statement you made. I thought it would be an interesting read. Instead of just saying no, you belittled my comment. So I explained myself a bit more.For the love of God, at what point will you acknowledge I said this is a SMALL part of the equation for me??? Not to mention it is FACTUALLy backed up by the wonderful reasearch of sir Isaac Newton a very, very long time ago.
And of course I am simplifying it, duh
Unless Austin would like to come over my house and let me slam a wall into him at different speeds and then scan his brains with high tech intruments to test his consussion and brain trauma tolerance, I PROBABLY can't give you specifics
But the idea that physics would provide proof that a small player is more likely to sustain a concussion than a large one is a bit far fetched for me. Any theory that is borne out of physics equations would need to be proven in real life to be considered factual.
