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Breaking down the Rookie of the Year

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I was taking a look at the QB stats of RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson last night and wanted to do a more thorough breakdown to determine who should win the Rookie of the Year award. While I'm doing the legwork, I figured I would post the results here for discussion.

I'm taking the most important factors (in my opinion) and rating each QB from 1-3 in each category (3 = best, 1 = worst). The categories are in no particular order. I'll throw in a couple subjective categories that I feel are very important as well.

---Total yards from scrimmage---

RGIII: 4015 (15 games) (2)

Luck: 4629 (3)

Wilson: 3607 (1)

Andrew Luck edges out RGIII in this category, though it comes on a few hundred more passing attempts. Wilson is clearly lagging behind here.

---Total Touchdowns---

RGIII: 27 (15 games) (2)

Luck: 28 (2)

Wilson: 30 (2)

I don't see much of an edge for any of the three in total TD's, it's a virtual dead-heat.

---Turnovers---

RGIII: 7 (15 games) (3)

Luck: 23 (1)

Wilson: 13 (2)

Wilson did a much better job of protecting the football than Luck, and he still had twice as many turnovers as Griffin. Luck was far too careless with the football and he takes a HUGE hit in the RoY race because of it.

---QB Rating---

RGIII: 102.4 (2.5)

Luck: 76.5 (1)

Wilson: 100.0 (2.5)

Griffin and Wilson are head and shoulders above Andrew Luck in QB Rating, which takes many factors into account. Turnovers are very costly to a team and Luck simply had too many.

---Completion %---

RGIII: 65.6 (2.5)

Luck: 54.1 (1)

Wilson: 64.1 (2.5)

Once again, Wilson and RGIII are neck and neck, while Luck falls farther behind because of accuracy issues.

---Yards per attempt---

RGIII: 8.1 (3)

Luck: 7.0 (1)

Wilson: 7.9 (2)

While luck puts up plenty of yards on volume, Griffin and Wilson consistently make the most of their passing plays, producing a full yard of additional offense every time they throw the ball. Griffin ranks 2nd in the league, while Wilson ranks 6th.

***Win/Loss record***

RGIII: 10-6 (2)

Luck: 11-5 (2)

Wilson: 11-5 (2)

Football is a team sport and the offense only gets the ball for half of the game. But QB play has clearly been a big factor in turning these three teams around from last season. I think this category is too close to call. All three teams have made the playoffs and while Washington has one less win than Indy or Seattle, they are riding an incredible 7-game winning streak.

***Team's dependence on QB for wins***

RGIII: (2)

Luck: (3)

Wilson: (1)

Wilson has the luxury of having perhaps the league's best defense on his side. They produce turnovers, give Wilson more time on the field, and keep the team in a position to win. Marshawn Lynch has been extremely productive this season as well, opening up more passing lanes and teams stack the box. Griffin has also benefitted from a strong running game, though the Redskins defense has been awful due to a string of injuries. Andrew Luck doesn't have much of a running game or a solid defense to rely on, which is why he is forced to throw the ball so much more than the other two rookies.

-----------------

Total points:

RGIII: (19)

Wilson: (15)

Luck: (14)

While Andrew Luck has carried the Colts on his back, he's been far too careless with the ball and his most impressive stats are padded by a huge volume of passing attempts. He's the Brett Favre of this year's RoY race. Russell Wilson has been very impressive this season as well, showing more than anyone expected and leading a very good Seahawks team to the postseason, but he still trails in nearly every single relevant passing category.

In my opinion, based on the analysis above, neither player stands a chance against Robert Griffin III in this race. RGIII has been the most efficient, explosive, and accurate rookie passer this season. His numbers aren't padded by 300 additional passing attempts or by having a dominant defense handing him the ball in good field position. He makes a shoddy offensive line look much better by using his scrambling ability and his presence on the field has opened up huge holes for

the running game. His intangibles have been equally as impressive, as he has become the clear leader of the team and driving force behind 7 straight wins, all of which were needed to make the playoffs.

Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have been spectacular this season, but this is clearly Robert Griffin III's award.

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Nice work. Very impressive and clear.

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I was taking a look at the QB stats of RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson last night and wanted to do a more thorough breakdown to determine who should win the Rookie of the Year award. While I'm doing the legwork, I figured I would post the results here for discussion.I'm taking the most important factors (in my opinion) and rating each QB from 1-3 in each category (3 = best, 1 = worst). The categories are in no particular order. I'll throw in a couple subjective categories that I feel are very important as well.---Total yards from scrimmage---RGIII: 4015 (15 games) (2)Luck: 4629 (3)Wilson: 3607 (1)Andrew Luck edges out RGIII in this category, though it comes on a few hundred more passing attempts. Wilson is clearly lagging behind here.---Total Touchdowns---RGIII: 27 (15 games) (2)Luck: 28 (2)Wilson: 30 (2)I don't see much of an edge for any of the three in total TD's, it's a virtual dead-heat.---Turnovers---RGIII: 7 (15 games) (3)Luck: 23 (1)Wilson: 13 (2)Wilson did a much better job of protecting the football than Luck, and he still had twice as many turnovers as Griffin. Luck was far too careless with the football and he takes a HUGE hit in the RoY race because of it.---QB Rating---RGIII: 102.4 (2.5)Luck: 76.5 (1)Wilson: 100.0 (2.5)Griffin and Wilson are head and shoulders above Andrew Luck in QB Rating, which takes many factors into account. Turnovers are very costly to a team and Luck simply had too many.---Completion %---RGIII: 65.6 (2.5)Luck: 54.1 (1)Wilson: 64.1 (2.5)Once again, Wilson and RGIII are neck and neck, while Luck falls farther behind because of accuracy issues. ---Yards per attempt---RGIII: 8.1 (3)Luck: 7.0 (1)Wilson: 7.9 (2)While luck puts up plenty of yards on volume, Griffin and Wilson consistently make the most of their passing plays, producing a full yard of additional offense every time they throw the ball. Griffin ranks 2nd in the league, while Wilson ranks 6th.***Win/Loss record***RGIII: 10-6 (2)Luck: 11-5 (2)Wilson: 11-5 (2)Football is a team sport and the offense only gets the ball for half of the game. But QB play has clearly been a big factor in turning these three teams around from last season. I think this category is too close to call. All three teams have made the playoffs and while Washington has one less win than Indy or Seattle, they are riding an incredible 7-game winning streak.***Team's dependence on QB for wins***RGIII: (2)Luck: (3)Wilson: (1)Wilson has the luxury of having perhaps the league's best defense on his side. They produce turnovers, give Wilson more time on the field, and keep the team in a position to win. Marshawn Lynch has been extremely productive this season as well, opening up more passing lanes and teams stack the box. Griffin has also benefitted from a strong running game, though the Redskins defense has been awful due to a string of injuries. Andrew Luck doesn't have much of a running game or a solid defense to rely on, which is why he is forced to throw the ball so much more than the other two rookies.-----------------Total points:RGIII: (19)Wilson: (15)Luck: (14)While Andrew Luck has carried the Colts on his back, he's been far too careless with the ball and his most impressive stats are padded by a huge volume of passing attempts. He's the Brett Favre of this year's RoY race. Russell Wilson has been very impressive this season as well, showing more than anyone expected and leading a very good Seahawks team to the postseason, but he still trails in nearly every single relevant passing category.In my opinion, based on the analysis above, neither player stands a chance against Robert Griffin III in this race. RGIII has been the most efficient, explosive, and accurate rookie passer this season. His numbers aren't padded by 300 additional passing attempts or by having a dominant defense handing him the ball in good field position. He makes a shoddy offensive line look much better by using his scrambling ability and his presence on the field has opened up huge holes for the running game. His intangibles have been equally as impressive, as he has become the clear leader of the team and driving force behind 7 straight wins, all of which were needed to make the playoffs.Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have been spectacular this season, but this is clearly Robert Griffin III's award.

Very nice work and nice read. Sadly it will be Luck....just because.

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---Total Touchdowns---

RGIII: 27 (15 games) (2) 1

Luck: 28 (2) 2

Wilson: 30 (2) 3

I don't see much of an edge for any of the three in total TD's, it's a virtual dead-heat.

I don't get this. The totals are close but don't deviate from your own system in only the second category. Wilson had 2 more tds than Luck and 3 more than Griffin.

I ran the numbers going purely on the numbers and taking out the ties based on the totals being close. Here's what your system produced:

Totals:

RG3: 18

Wilson: 14

Luck: 15

I gave Wilson and Luck 3s for tying win-loss records

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I don't even think Luck deserves to be in the convo for ROY, if he wins it will be an absolute joke. I agree that RGIII deserves it and that's coming from a Hawk's fan. At least Wilson will beat RGIII where it matters most, the playoffs.

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

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Excellent work. You could have also noted that RGIII lost his top two receiving targets--Fred Davis and Pierre Garcon--for about half of the season or more in the Team Dependent on QB section. So for a long stretch, he had a series of multiple 100 plus passer rating games, some with 4 tds, throwing to Santana Moss, Josh Morgan, Aldrick Robinson, Leonard Hankerson, Niles Paul and Logan Paulsen.

Think about that for a minute.

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While Luck gets the INT number on his head he is not solely to blame. Besides Wayne and occasionally an average Avery, Luck has been throwing to 4 rookies. Maybe, just maybe, the rookies were out of position or running the wrong routes. We may never know.

I give full credit to the other rookies and would even give a nod to Griffin in the race.

The Colts o-line is abysmal, terrible, just awful! Luck has had a terrific year and I'm perfectly fine with his INTs. It come with the team around him as much as his arm and decision making.

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Sadly it will be Luck....just because.

2-14 to 11-5 and the playoffs? I don't have a problem with Luck winning...I still think Wilson should get it though...

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Lets not forget that the Skins 10-6 record had Griffin "win" 8 of those games. Cousins finished one and won another on his own.

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Not a debate. RG3 wins. Wasn't necessary to write a book attempting to justify it.

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Sadly it will be Luck....just because.

2-14 to 11-5 and the playoffs? I don't have a problem with Luck winning...I still think Wilson should get it though...
I hate this. Luck has a team. THEY were 11-5.

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I think the race should be between Griffin and Wilson. Luck is good but he's not done as much as the other two.

The main argument for Luck is the fact that he turned around a team that was 2-14. However, when you really look at the Redskins, Colts and Seahawks, it's clear that Griffin did FAR more to turn around the fortunes of his team than Luck. Proponents of Luck point only to the year when Manning was injured and Curtis Painter was the QB. But despite one rocky year, the Colts were not a dynsfunctional franchise in disarray for years and years like the Redskins. The Colts made the playoffs what like 10 out of the last 11 years or something? The Redskins have STUNK ever since Dan Snyder bought the team. Stunk in a way that they had an absolute dysfunctional organization with a losers mentality. The Colts were NOT saddled with that losers, dysfunctional mentality for the last several decades. They have been a winning organization that had one bad year. In my opinion, Griffin's task in turning around the entire dysfunctional culture in Washington was a much greater feat than Luck's turning the Colts around. That's not to say that Luck didn't do a fantastic job. He's a total stud and no doubt he did a great job. It's just, I don't really buy the argument that Luck had a tougher turnaround job than Griffin. I think Griffin's task was harder.

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The Colts had 35 new players on the 53 man roster to start the year. I'd say THEY were heavily dependent on Luck. More so than the Skins or the Hawks.

All 3 had great years. I'd be fine with any of them winning ROY.

Edit to add the Colts had a new GM and coaching staff, and lost their HC after the 3rd game of the season.

Yeah, Luck had little to overcome in this 11-5 season. LOL

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Nice write up... but RGIII only had 8 wins he accounted for.

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Nice write up... but RGIII only had 8 wins he accounted for.

9. He was responsie for most of the game-tying drive against balto, along with a pass interference call, and overtime was a runback/field goal. Cousins stepped up, but griffin did mist of the QB work in that game.

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Lets not forget that the Skins 10-6 record had Griffin "win" 8 of those games. Cousins finished one and won another on his own.

Cousins finished the Ravens game. However, it was a hobbled Griffin who drove them into the redzone (and then back out of the redzone with an intentional grounding call). Cousins threw two passes, including one to a wide open Garcon in the endzone. It was a pass even Rex Grossman would have made. Of course, Cousins then ran the QB draw for the two-point conversion, but that was just a brilliant play call. In overtime, he simply handed off because a big punt return put them in FG range for the win. Cousins deserves credit for being ready to play when he was needed, but I wouldn't give him the whole win and Griffin nothing there. Griffin played 99% of the game.As for the Cleveland game, Cousins played really well. But, really, he enjoyed his success because Cleveland just refused to back off the run. The Browns went hard after Morris (and held him in check) and just let Cousins run play action all day and hit open receivers. Again, it's really something that Grossman could have done. Cousins deserves credit for his play, but he excelled and the team won because the Browns payed no attention to him. When Griffin steps on the field, he draws all the attention.As for the ROY, I think the Wilson argument is based on how he finished the season. He was the best rookie down the stretch, but I think this award should be about the full season. Taking the full season into account, I think Griffin has the edge.Next week is going to be fun, seeing those two face off.

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---Yards per attempt---RGIII: 8.1 (3)Luck: 7.0 (1)Wilson: 7.9 (2)While luck puts up plenty of yards on volume, Griffin and Wilson consistently make the most of their passing plays, producing a full yard of additional offense every time they throw the ball. Griffin ranks 2nd in the league, while Wilson ranks 6th.

82 yards difference over 16 games does not make it a tie statistically??

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !
I would put Martin over Morris...

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !
And if Morris deserves to be in the discussion, doesn't that diminish the accomplishments and chances for Griffin?! Griffin might not even be the most deserving player on his own team.

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !
I would put Martin over Morris...
For ROY or FF production?Morris was a much lower pick and his production was more even, on a playoff team.

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !
And if Morris deserves to be in the discussion, doesn't that diminish the accomplishments and chances for Griffin?! Griffin might not even be the most deserving player on his own team.
While I've certainly grown in my love for Morris as the season has progressed, he owes a TON of his success to Griffin. I think Morris' accomplishments actually shine a light on Griffin's accomplishments. Defenses pay so much attention to Griffin that Morris generally has a fairly easy time getting through that first layer of defense. After that, though, it's all Morris. He's runs hard and breaks tackles and always goes forward.Griffin's success is a combination of Morris' success AND Griffin's amazing ball skills. Defenders rarely know where the ball is.

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And how about including how many times that they fumbled? Griffin put the ball on the turf 12 times, Wilson only six times (though Griffin lost two and Wilson three)...

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !
I would put Martin over Morris...
For ROY or FF production?Morris was a much lower pick and his production was more even, on a playoff team.
Rookie of the Year for RBs...

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I wouldn't rule out Wilson in an upset if voters put stock in achievement vs draft position or challenges conquered, coupled with a pedestrian effort from a clearly hobbled G3 last night. But it's a real long shot, IMO. I think G3 puts his ROY award right next to his Heisman this summer.

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Sadly there are 2 RBs that won't get consideration, but might win it other years.

While I am not a supporter of any candidate, I think that you are only looking at some of the information, & therefore skew the results. RG III & Wilson both had great running games & much better supporting staffs, which resulted in Luck throwing more. All 3 are great candidates, and all very deserving of winning ROY.

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !
And if Morris deserves to be in the discussion, doesn't that diminish the accomplishments and chances for Griffin?! Griffin might not even be the most deserving player on his own team.
If I say TY Hilton and/or Dwayne Allen deserves consideration, does that detract from Luck?Robert Griffin led the entire NFL in yards per attempt AND yards per carry. Andrew Luck led the entire NFL in INTs AND passes which hit a defender in the hands, but which the defender subsequently dropped. Griffin by a mile.

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Morris deserves consideration over Luck IMO.

Morris AND Doug Martin !
And if Morris deserves to be in the discussion, doesn't that diminish the accomplishments and chances for Griffin?! Griffin might not even be the most deserving player on his own team.
If I say TY Hilton and/or Dwayne Allen deserves consideration, does that detract from Luck?Robert Griffin led the entire NFL in yards per attempt AND yards per carry. Andrew Luck led the entire NFL in INTs AND passes which hit a defender in the hands, but which the defender subsequently dropped. Griffin by a mile.
Are you saying Hilton or Allen deserve to be in the discussion? If not, then why bring it up? Several have said Morris should be in the discussion. And YPA means nothing! If the defense is playing for the rush, of course there is a greater chance for big plays in the passing game. Or maybe you don't know as much as I thought you did.

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Sadly it will be Luck....just because.

2-14 to 11-5 and the playoffs? I don't have a problem with Luck winning...I still think Wilson should get it though...
I feel mostly the same. No problem with a Rookie of the year QB who turns a 2-14 last place team into an 11-5 playoff team.I do think that Griffen deserves it as statistically he was superior to both other QB's.

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Great post OP. RG3 has been my choice all along.

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Full disclosure.... I'm a longtime Seahawks homer and love Russell Wilson. It has to be Luck. Without luck the colts are 2-14 again. He did more with less than the other two. It's that simple for me.

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Without luck the colts are 2-14 again.

With Collins, Painter, and Orlovsky they are 2-14 again. Has to do with them than with Luck.

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I do think that RGIII deserves to win the ROY and Wilson is the runnerup but the stats are not really fair to Luck who was forced on many occasions to lead his team from behind. He lead his team to victory when they were behind double digits to the Packers and the Lions. He also came back to beat the Vikings, the Titans and probably others that I can't recall. It can be argued that his mistakes may have gotten them into situation but his ability to lead his team from behind is very impressive none the less. More impressive, IMO, than a RB who needs to share credit with the guys blocking in front of him.

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Griffin's team led the NFL in yards per play.

And I agree with Donnybrook about Luck. The only way the Colts were going to win was if Luck kept throwing and throwing, which really lowered his overall QB rating.

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That's a lot of words to pretend to be impartial. I will rank them 1,2,3 unless it doesn't suit RG3.

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While a case can definitely be made for all 3 QBs, Luck will win ROY. That doesn't diminish what the other 2 QBs have done.

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And I agree with Donnybrook about Luck. The only way the Colts were going to win was if Luck kept throwing and throwing, which really lowered his overall QB rating.

Yea, this doesn't get enough ink:RG3 - 393 pass attemptsLuck - 627 pass attemptsGriffin played the tougher schedule, but probably had the better overall team around him (although the Skins WRs are pretty bad). Tough year to make a call. I think a co-ROY would be fitting. I know they've done that in the NBA before. Not sure about the NFL.

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And I agree with Donnybrook about Luck. The only way the Colts were going to win was if Luck kept throwing and throwing, which really lowered his overall QB rating.

Yea, this doesn't get enough ink:RG3 - 393 pass attemptsLuck - 627 pass attemptsGriffin played the tougher schedule, but probably had the better overall team around him (although the Skins WRs are pretty bad). Tough year to make a call. I think a co-ROY would be fitting. I know they've done that in the NBA before. Not sure about the NFL.
They've done co-MVPs before ...

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I love this post, but let's consider what are really the criteria for Rookie of the Year? Is it purely statistical in nature, is it performance relative to where you were drafted, or is it like the MVP where it's supposed to be the person who made the most impact on their team? I think it's a combination of stats and what they meant to the team.

Personally, I think RGIII deserves it this year, but if they gave it to Luck for what he has meant to that team I could live with that too. Wilson has been excellent, but I think everyone would agree he stepped into a better overall team, and because his numbers aren't vastly superior to the others, that is going to hurt him in the voting.

Also, Martin and Morris were great this year, but I don't think either of them measure up in stats or team impact to any of the three QBs we're discussing.

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