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38 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I am too, but I'm on eggshells right now. I'm scared of a decent pullback, although over the next few weeks, even with a good pullback, I think the upwards trend continues.

MGT has traded 23M shares in 40 minutes, even though it is basically outlined as fraud. 

Is it possible that there are that many Eminences out there? 

I'm just so excited for the collapse of this thing. 

I'm gonna be rich!

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17 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

You're gonna have more money than me by next week. Buy more.

I heard we're gonna be at $20.00 a share by next Friday, that's when we dump.

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44 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I am too, but I'm on eggshells right now. I'm scared of a decent pullback, although over the next few weeks, even with a good pullback, I think the upwards trend continues.

MGT has traded 23M shares in 40 minutes, even though it is basically outlined as fraud. 

Is it possible that there are that many Eminences out there? 

I'm just so excited for the collapse of this thing. 

Ok so here is a quick and dirty on options.

 

They can be used in a few ways. Here are the two ways I use them.

 

1) Insurance

2) Portfolio Yield enhancement

 

So as an insurance hedge. You can do it this way if your walking on eggshells about the oil market and let's say a stock like XOM (which is the company you should be the least worried about in the entire sector). 

 

You own XOM and you bought it at eg: $75 

 

Today XOM is trading at 89.53 you buy what is called a married put. 

 

Let's say you love the stock long term but want to hedge some short term downside. Right now your up 19.37% and let's say for this example you own 200 shares. Your fear is it will drop 20% in another oil correction and all your gains will be wiped. So you go and buy 2 XOM July 2016 75's and pay a total of $30 

The premium on July 75's is currently .15 cents. Multiple that buy 200 shares (each option contract is equivalent to 100 shares) and you just paid $30 bucks for insurance.

 

How so you ask?

 

Let's say your right and XOM and the oil market free fall again this summer and XOM's price moves down to say $78 bucks.....that $30 insurance you just bought is now probably worth $3.00 which at that point you will go ahead and sell those 2 contract you purchased and book a profit of $600 to offset your stock value going down 12% 

 

200 shares valued at 89 = $17,800

200 shares valued at 78 = $15,600 (-12% from 89 stock price)

Add your profit on the put + 600

XOM value really is = $16,200 (look at this like a special cash dividend you created on XOM)

value = $16,200 you mitigated 4% of downside. You basically created a special cash dividend for $30 of risk.

 

That is one way to mitigate downside and keep the stock long term. If the stock never drops......or never sniffs that area...you option will expire worthless in July. You spent $30 bucks for insurance you never used. The longer you go on your expiration the higher the initial premium will be, but the flip side is if the stock really drops like a rock you will make double than that July put (Let's say you sell an October put instead). So their is give and take. Time value of money plays into it.

 

Another way...which is to me more of a dividend enhancement most of the time and sometimes a reset of cost basis is selling covered calls. I sell covered calls a lot. And it works. I add anywhere from 1-1.5% yield to my clients (and my own) Portfolio each year with this strategy.

 

Let's say you think the oil rally is overdone, your sitting on 20% profit on XOM....but you don't want to sell the stock (short term capitol gains etc). Your a long term investor. So enhance the dividend if you really sure XOM won't go much higher over the next 3-6 months but at the same time don't care if it is "called away". Here is how.

 

Let's look at October 2016 XOM 97.50's 

Right now you can bring in (because you will sell this call as opposed to buying a put) a premium of 1.00 So you sell 2 XOM 97.50 OCT 2016 and $200 dollars hard cash goes right into your account.

 

The stock never sniffs 97.50 and the third week of October rolls around (third friday of every month is witching day when options expire) and the option is now worth .05 cents...you can buy it back and make 95% or let it expire worthless. Either way you just added another $1.00 to your dividend yield in XOM which currently pays $3.00 per year per share. You just increased the yield from 4% (remember you paid 75 bucks for the 200 shares) to 5.33 and it was a 5 month call.

 

Go ahead and sell another one after expiration. And if it get's called at 97.50...so be it. You still made 20 plus % on the stock....and if you want it back...buy it again. Now you just reset your cost basis.

 

I have a third option strategy selling out of the money puts on stocks I want to own but at a cheaper price. Digest this first and ask me questions....if you get it...then i will tell you about this other Put strategy I employ with blue chip stocks.

Edited by Todem
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1 minute ago, John Bender said:

lol awesome

Fell from $5 to $3 in about 5 minutes. Nothing to see here. 

Em, hopefully you're out... Look for it to come back online at around $2, probably lower.

I'll post some stocktwit insights in a little. I'm sure there will be some good stuff in there.

Edited by fantasycurse42

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Tooooo.Muchhhh.Gold.On.Stocktwits.

It is refreshing to fast for me to find the best tweets, a lot of gold in there. 

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Bender FWIW, I upped my position in UWTI at $36.23.

Really hoping Brent takes $50, then hopefully Crude follows suit.

Edited by fantasycurse42

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16 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Fell from $5 to $3 in about 5 minutes. Nothing to see here. 

Em, hopefully you're out... Look for it to come back online at around $2, probably lower.

I'll post some stocktwit insights in a little. I'm sure there will be some good stuff in there.

I got out at $3.38, thanks to you actually. I was going to let it ride.

 

It was a hot buy on Fidelity a few days ago and I hopped on, wouldn't have known to hop off w/o you.

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Just now, Eminence said:

I got out at $3.38, thanks to you actually. I was going to let it ride.

 

It was a hot buy on Fidelity a few days ago and I hopped on, wouldn't have known to hop off w/o you.

Good for you. There will be a lot of people holding a worthless piece of paper in a few days. 

Amazingly with all of the warnings, some people are still buying this. Pretty amazing.

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Just now, Ignoramus said:

 

 

:lmao:

There are too many of these.

Marvelous - only word I can come up with.

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Brent is looking to take $50... Cmon!!!! Keep your eyes on it, that'll be huge!

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4 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

MGT roaring back. More $ to be had. 

Wtf, FC42? You just cost me 14% of my gain!

 

 

Lol, jk, I imagine this bottoms out again shortly.

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Hopefully my comment gets approved

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1 minute ago, John Bender said:

Same here.

:excited:

Like to see what you put in... I'll be refreshing frequently.

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Picked up some Tesla & Netflix this morning. 

New this this - dipping toe into water. First time since the .bomb disaster.

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51 minutes ago, =Smackdown= said:

Picked up some Tesla & Netflix this morning. 

New this this - dipping toe into water. First time since the .bomb disaster.

Bomb disaster?  1993 WTC?  1945 Hiroshima?

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59 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

:excited:

Like to see what you put in... I'll be refreshing frequently.

Yours didn't make it through :kicksrock:

Mine made the cut though

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14 minutes ago, Sand said:

Bomb disaster?  1993 WTC?  1945 Hiroshima?

.com 

.bomb

 

same thing

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1 hour ago, =Smackdown= said:

Picked up some Tesla & Netflix this morning. 

New this this - dipping toe into water. First time since the .bomb disaster.

We hate Tesla in here if it's not too late.

 

FC42 had a take I liked some months back.  I'll try to summarize if I have a chance.

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6 minutes ago, John Bender said:

We hate Tesla in here if it's not too late.

 

FC42 had a take I liked some months back.  I'll try to summarize if I have a chance.

I would short it if I had any balls.

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6 minutes ago, Johnnymac said:

I would short it if I had any balls.

Me too, but that is momentum stock that would crush you getting on the wrong side.

Honestly, in the long long long long term, I don't hate them as much, but their valuation as of right now is so silly to me. 

Furthermore, to think that we won't hit a recession between now and whenever they're mass producing cars is a little silly IMO (whenever that might be). When we do hit a recession, the first things that crushed are these overvalued momentum plays. If it were around $80-$100 I'd be a long term holder, not at > $200. 

Also, they're going to need to raise $$$. 

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The Fed just sent oil retreating heavily... Getting crushed. 

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MOAR Cobalt.  
 

Quote

Cobalt: The Bass Player in the Tesla Band
 
Numbers are numbers and facts are facts: we make serious money when we figure out how those statistics could affect the future
 
For the past year, we’ve been haranguing about the global shortage of cobalt. 
 
The key facts you need to know: 
 
roughly 97% of the world’s supply of cobalt is produced as a by-product of nickel or copper production. 
 
Fact; the spot prices for copper and nickel have plummeted to and have stayed at levels that make many deposits uneconomic. 
 
Fact; as a result of these economics, the owners of some of those copper and nickel mines are closing the mines, putting those mines on care and maintenance in a Hail Mary that someday the commodity price will recover enough to someday make these mines economic. 
 
Fact; if those mines are shut in, the supply of cobalt will fall in tandem. 
 
Fact; geographically, roughly 53% of the world’s supply of cobalt comes from nickel and copper mining in Conflict Africa. This supply is at risk on the best of days. Even worse, there are ethical concerns involving child labour. 
 
Fact; the experts who specialize in this area are anticipating a 10 – 15% decrease in cobalt supply in 2016, resulting from a combination of ethical controls on the supply chain and mines being shut in. 
 
Fact; every battery used in an electrically powered vehicle needs cobalt. 
 
Fact; Tesla says it will punch out 500,000 electrically powered vehicles by 2018, each one of which will need an electric battery. Actually, each car will use many small electric batteries, each one containing lithium, graphite and cobalt. John Petersen’s work, supported by others, indicates that roughly 7,000 tonnes of additional cobalt will be needed to create the batteries for these vehicles. That number could be as high as 12,000 tonnes. Fact. 
 
Simple facts, easily verifiable by your own due diligence. Global demand is increasing while supply is decreasing.
 
So what do those numbers mean? 
 
Econ101 tells us that if demand increases and supply decreases, the price for the item must increase. 
 
Think of the last time you went to a bar and saw a live band. You’re having a great time and really appreciating the music. The crowd is moving and the band is smokin. The drummer makes your arms move. The guitar player makes your hips pivot and your hips swing. Then you look down and your foot is moving … you don’t even know it but your toes are tapping along with the groove. That’s not the sax solo, that’s not the singer … it’s the forgotten bass player who makes your toes tap. 
 
If lithium is the lead singer in Tesla’s band, cobalt is the bass player. 
 
Lithium gets all the media attention. It seems that every day there is another mining company announcing a lithium project, and those forays always reference Tesla directly or indirectly. Some of them are idiotic. Recognize that some of those are merely marketing plays, trying to shore up a disastrous stock price with blumphus and hoopla. These are the same companies that marketed a run at rare earths in 2009, at gold during its bull run, then at marijuana, and today they speculate with your investment money with passing references to lithium. 
 
But Tesla needs cobalt in the cells to be provided by Panasonic. Volkswagen needs cobalt. Honda needs cobalt. BMW needs cobalt. Demand is increasing and global supply is falling. 
 
You can probably name a dozen companies with a lithium asset. How many can you name whose primary asset is a cobalt deposit? Right. Think about all those facts above. Draw a conclusion as to what those facts mean. Then do one of two things. If you think Tesla is wrong and it won’t build those cars, it is now an obvious short. All shorts are high-risk, and this would be no different. 
 
But if you don’t believe in the Cult of Musk, then Tesla’s marketing machine has set you up for the fortune of a lifetime. 
 
If you think Tesla is even partially right, then the right answer is to leave the crowded lithium world to others and go find yourself a cobalt company. Take a large early position and wait for the rest of the investing world to join you. That’s where serious money gets made. 


 

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UWTI got hammered. I'm still on the bull side. 

Macro picture a little weaker, micro picture still very supportive of higher prices. 

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And from the Bender article 

Quote

Oh man, what a drop... any of you think i should hold and wait for it to rise up over 4.50 again? i really hope it does... quite a bit of money in this.

:lol:

 

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2 hours ago, John Bender said:

We hate Tesla in here if it's not too late.

 

FC42 had a take I liked some months back.  I'll try to summarize if I have a chance.

TSLA dropping after hours.  Secondary offering?

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Just now, D-Day said:

TSLA dropping after hours.  Secondary offering?

I don't think yet. I bet it comes in around $160-$170

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1 minute ago, General Malaise said:

$2 Billion stock offering.

Probably, at what price offering though?

Edited by fantasycurse42

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Bad timing for Smack. 

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Feck Tesla, Feck the Fed

Go Oil!

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40 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Probably, at what price offering though?

I don't know.  Perhaps prevailing prices?  

Says they (Tesla) will offer up 6,800,000 shares and Elon Musk will offer up another 2,777,901 shares.  So 2B/9.5M = $210, which is roughly the closing price today. :shrug:

 

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47 minutes ago, D-Day said:

Bad timing for Smack. 

Story of my investing life. This is the reason I haven't bought stock since I got my ### handed to me back in the .com days.

bought at $213 today - couple grand - nothing crazy.

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MGT was a pretty solid Pump N Dump but it can't hold a candle to VLTC's run from sub 1 to over 16 when Carl Icahn's stake was announced. Then, even bigger was Martin Shkreli's P&D on KBIO from sub 1 to over 40 in 4 days or so before it collapsed into a heap and went to KBIOQ. I got in at 18 and ran screaming at 26 in under 5 minutes.

There will probably be more pumps for MGT down the road but each one will be smaller, less spectacular and harder to time than the 1st one. VLTC had 3 P&Ds inside a year.

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Bought more UWTI when oil dipped into the $46.70's

You want to see a bullish chart, look here (look at the action between 1130 and 12, just wow). Nigeria just closed a terminal.

 

Edited by fantasycurse42

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Suncore just told customers not to expect any more shipments from their syncrude facility this month. More bullish news. 

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Enough with this oil crap, how is mgt doing today?  Up in a down market!  Going to $20 soon?

Edited by Don't Noonan
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