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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The single biggest day of losses in the history of the stock market.Vincesanity said:
Only a handful of people? Kick me to the curb?
So you understand how their business works?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
If I'm all cash, I'm not paying him anything. FA's are like real estate agents, none of them will ever say now isn't a good time.Philo said:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I don't think you understand what I'm saying.
If Google or Apple are falling hard (and Microsoft), EVERYTHING is falling hard. Those are some of the "safest" stocks from investors viewpoints. If you want to short something, you need to short things that have high international exposure, momentum stocks, funny valuations.
Netflix is one that would stand out to me.
Shutout
Footballguy
Gotcha. Thanks for the thought. Very enlightening. I guess that WOULD be where you could really see the needle move. If there is such a thing, I guess I'm on the conservative "short" side (instead of going for a big splash on something higher risk/moving, I'm just poking along.
I got luck last week and admittedly know I'm sticking my toes in something I'm still very green to so I went the route this morning of shorting AAPL on 100 shares. I'm already having stomach flips LOL.
Thanks again. This has become a favorite thread of mine to follow.
John Bender
Footballguy
Grabbing 300 shares of C @ 39.19
RUSF18
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I was looking at them over the weekend... As I said earlier, I'm not a huge long buyer right now, but they seem to be positioned decently to withstand some headwinds.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
NFLX down 3.5% Appl 1.5%... If people are fleeing, they'll be fleeing Netflix and their insane P/E way ahead of Apple and their low P/E of 10. Also, the flip side, when people feel comfortable to get back in, they're going back to safety at first, Google/Apple/Microsoft so you'll get caught on the wrong side their first too.
If Apple or Google are sinking so is everything. So my point again, if you're on the short side, short momentum stocks, not safety stocks.
Avoid shorting things like AT&T/VZ who have high yields when treasury yields are getting crushed too.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
On another note, going to be a battle to claw back those losses... Done for the day, don't want to get greedy, not getting Friday back in one shot, but a nice start to recouping the anal pounding I took then. Need the mentality every single day is a new day and that is that.
http://i.imgur.com/Gcm3Xb3.png
http://i.imgur.com/Gcm3Xb3.png
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I agree, there will be a day, maybe tomorrow or Wednesday with a DJIA gain of 3-400 points, but I don't think there will be a ton of follow-through on it.
The upside is kinda #### and the downside has some room, I think there will be a lot of caution.
Don't see a DJIA really blowing much past 18k and S&P much higher than 2100 without some sort of unforeseen catalyst. Who knows, maybe the Fed decides to pump some QE into the system, I'd be a short term buyer with news like that.
Todem
Footballguy
You just have not found the right adviser.
There are times you don't buy. And there are times we build a lot of cash. And sell covered calls as I explained a while back.
Now I have been buying those calls back for pennies on the dollar making 85-95% on those covered call trades. I add value to my clients portfolios and basically cover my management fee with covered call writing. They love it. I work my ### off for my clients when the market is doing this.
EG:
Sold 50 McDonalds Sep 135 call for 1.05 back on 3/9/2016 (took in $5,250)
Bought it back today for .06! (94% gain) (paid $300 to close the position)
That is adding value.
It is when I really earn my fee.
Now for clients I only do mutual fund portfolios it is a different approach. But we will tactically reallocate between equities, fixed income and Alt's to help ease the pain of these kinds of swings. I also re-balance twice a year in IRA portfolios, and once a year in taxable portfolios (December for tax harvesting reasons).
If you have a really good adviser who is proactive your lucky. Because I do agree that most so called advisers are idiots (can't deny that because I have a ton of them in my office). But there is about 10% of us who actually truly understand what we are doing and work for our clients and not a fast commission.
I was on the phone with my clients between 7:30-9AM on Friday morning just filling them in on what the impacts of this "Brexit" could be. I proactively call my clients, not react to them calling me. My all equity clients were already sitting in 20 plus percent of cash since May as I sold covered calls and sold some overvalued stocks for gains to build cash.
And VOD is stupid at these levels. High quality, great dividend. Strong buy here as it is dropping another 5% today.....just emotional irrational selling on a global telecom company with a strong balance sheet and dividend.
NGG is slightly down (1.76%) after a big fall Friday. I love that one too.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
And to counter this dudes Vincesanity's point, I'd argue that your clients have been reaching out in much higher volumes Friday/today with some concern, no? The markets experienced a huge shock, this is when people get nervous.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bought 500 FAZ at $44.97
Todem
Footballguy
No they have not. I have been telling them for months as this rally was taking place that we will have heavy volatility this summer. No question we would. So don't be surprised. Consistent communication via email news letters, quarterly calls, semi annual reviews helps a lot. I think the most important thing advisers can do is consistently communicate with their clients and get out in front of events like this.
I have had a couple of phone calls of course......but I was calling just about everyone (whom I have marked as more conservative clients as well as my equity sleeve clients) Friday morning as a proactive measure.
I am a highly proactive portfolio manager. 97% of my clients are well informed, calm and not surprised with this volatility. I always have a small portion of my book that may get a lot more jittery in these down turns because that is who they are. But even they are doing fine.
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Todem
Footballguy
My opinion is after the election we march to to new highs on the Dow and S&P thru 2017. I am going to get very defensive again come 3rd and 4th quarter of 2017.
We are in the 8th-9th innings of this latest bull market which began in the second half of 2009 after the massive blow out of most retail investors (who also have missed most of this rally).
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This is at best IMO, at worst, we're entering bear market. Hence, the limited upside I see.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
But you've spoken to a good portion of your clients, regardless of who has made the calls. This is my point.
It is simple psychology, people get jittery when the risks start coming in. They need to know what is going on with their money.
John Bender
Footballguy
I still think buying some TWLO right now where it is is prudent.
This company has a chance to really blow up (in a good way)
This company has a chance to really blow up (in a good way)
Todem
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Agree again. That is the best case scenario. The reason I see a little more juice is because of how slow the Fed has been in raising interest rates. People need yield to live and the Banks can't give anyone jack. Once interest rates start to normalize we can get back to true fundamentals driving stocks and bonds. However the ascent to normalized rates will yield a lot of pain and a true correction. But once we get through that #### storm we can get back into upward long term trajectory again (as has been the case for the last 80 plus years).
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
Wondering if it's too late to go to cash or hedge for the possible Trump victory? If the Trump-lite guys in Britain can crater the international markets, hate to think what will happen to my retirement savings when the nationalist, anti-free trade guy wins here.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I just don't see this happening for a very very long time, the Fed has left us with no outs. I've stated in the mortgage thread now for about a year that 6% 30 years are a thing of the past (since they tie directly into the 10 year treasury yields). I'm confident the 30 year will be under 3% at some point in the next 12-36 months (which is about 20% lower than it is today). Most of the bond gurus kinda echo this sentiment if you read between the lines in their statements.
We know for close to a fact that a rate hike is off the table in 2016, we also know there is going to be volatility leading up to the election. Treasury yields will continue to fall. I'd expect to be in the 1.2-1.3% range by November (which I believe will be all-time lows). The Fed can't raise the FFR, impossible. We have yields all over the world in negative percentages... I truly don't understand who would ever buy that? Why? There is no other investment that you are GUARANTEED to lose money on, just makes no sense. We didn't learn from the Japanese's mistakes of 20 years ago (as they're still stuck in this no interest rate/negative rate cycle with no end in sight) and we're heading down the same path.
We're kinda ####ed with interest rates, savers are done. Wouldn't be surprised within 5 years if it costs money to keep it in the bank.
What really scares me at this point is during crisis times, if you look historically, a central bank will reduce rates by 3-500 basis points, that is something that cannot be done right now. They're out of tools. All they have left is liquid injections, and honestly, after an unprecedented period of doing this, we're still sitting on minimal growth.
I just don't see how there aren't rocky times ahead. I think the only things keeping the markets from taking a 20% haircut right now is the public's confidence in the central banks, I don't have that confidence.
YMMV, just my opinion.
Todem
Footballguy
A strong bear case. If interest rates don't start going up over the next year we are no doubt going to have some serious pain long term. They must pivot. When the Fed is too concerned with other Central Banks things will get worse for us. We are healthier than Europe and need to de-couple from them in regards to central bank coordination. They were two steps behind us in lowering rates and now this is the result. While I understand we are in a global economy.....we must be careful with our own monetary policy. We must be focused on our fundamentals and indicators. We should have been raising .25 every quarter since 1st quarter 2015......but we did not. Some would have even argued as early as 2014 to start raising rates (and I would have agreed with that). It's absurd we have had one raise....one. We should have been doing this for a year already. I know the Fed is not supposedly political nor swayed by politics......but I wonder how much of this is political (White House) persuasion. I seriously wonder. I have never seen anything like this in my life. It's insane. We pulled out of the recession years ago and never got our monetary policy back in line.
Let's use Mac and Cheese inflation illustration.
1998 Box of Mac and Cheese from Kraft cost you .89 cents
2008 a box of Mac and Cheese from Kraft cost you 1.19 (up 33% in 8 years)
2016 a box of Mac and Cheese from Kraft cost's you 1.89 (up 59% in the next 8 years)
112% over 18 years.
That is the price I pay in a local Publix. I know prices varies state to state, zip code to zip code (another price rig IMO btw).
6.22% per year. But the inflation rate is barely 2% if you listen to the news. Of course that number is ex food and gas (which are monthly staples for us).
Fuel has come back to earth recently as we know. But food? Nope. Keeps marching higher and higher. And fuel will again too. Mark my words.
So the Fed is not raising because of not reaching inflation goals and unemployment goals, yet us with boots on the ground know how the cost of living keeps rising each and every year (health insurance anyone?).
They are out of touch with reality. I do not know how else to explain the lack of interest rate movement. Seriously a huge problem and they need to get on it or the roosters will come home to roost in the next 12-24 months.
So we are on the same page.
Did not mean to drift off topic. Back to stock talk!
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Food inflation is the biggest story no one is paying attention to.
Remember the $5 Footlong? Now it's $5 for a six-inch, a 100% price increase
Fast food places rarely have anything on the dollar menu besides snacks (that are getting smaller). They don't even call it the "dollar menu" anymore. Used to be you could get a double cheeseburger for 89 cents. Now, check out the "Dollar And More" menu (really... if it's everything priced under a dollar, and more than a dollar, isn't that the whole menu?), and the burger is a buck-sixty at least.
Chicken is outrageous nowadays. You'll pay eight to ten dollars a bird at the grocery store. And wings? Anyone remember ten cent wings? Maybe 25 cent wings? Now places advertise proudly they offer the best deal on wings at a mere 75-cents per. 75 cents per wing! Insane.
People get all focused on inflation being "so low" at only 2%, but throw the cost of food for an average person's budget, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was double or more.
Remember the $5 Footlong? Now it's $5 for a six-inch, a 100% price increase
Fast food places rarely have anything on the dollar menu besides snacks (that are getting smaller). They don't even call it the "dollar menu" anymore. Used to be you could get a double cheeseburger for 89 cents. Now, check out the "Dollar And More" menu (really... if it's everything priced under a dollar, and more than a dollar, isn't that the whole menu?), and the burger is a buck-sixty at least.
Chicken is outrageous nowadays. You'll pay eight to ten dollars a bird at the grocery store. And wings? Anyone remember ten cent wings? Maybe 25 cent wings? Now places advertise proudly they offer the best deal on wings at a mere 75-cents per. 75 cents per wing! Insane.
People get all focused on inflation being "so low" at only 2%, but throw the cost of food for an average person's budget, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was double or more.
Todem
Footballguy
Well at least Micky D's re-instituted 49 cent hamburgers 69 cent cheeseburgers on Wednesday and Sunday's again LOL.
Other than that....yeah. Fast food prices are getting stupid expensive. Same crappy food and service, just cost's more and more every year.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Painted a Rembrandt on oil today... Crushed it on the way down, changed course and blasted that pit close:
http://i.imgur.com/0DbbEs8.png
http://i.imgur.com/0DbbEs8.png
Add in a shift in the size of the container. That won't even show up in inflation. Someone like subway is forced to raise prices because it's a 'foot long' sub. Other places can simply make the burger a little smaller for example. Candy bars..they are smaller. Some bean counter or other POS who came up with that idea probably got a giant promotion and bonus for screwing the rest of us without most people even knowing it.Philo said:
At least this screws over the fatties the most.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
S&P closed at 2k on the nose... I expect a small relief rally tomorrow. I'm not buying though.
John Bender
Footballguy
I added to my oil positions today pretty heavily.
Added a large purchase of Citibank.
I'm loading up a lot of cash into play but into strategic areas.
I may look at Caterpillar again tomorrow. This stock has been so good to me over the past year and I pulled everything but my original investment a few months back, I think it's starting to look attractive once again.
AT&T added a dividend 4+% I believe today as well to compete with Verizon ostensibly. I think they may be poised for a big 2017 having had a tenuous year or two while using capital to acquire Dish Network a few years ago. Now that that's been pretty well integrated, I think they allows them to finally begin to aggressively expand their network in 2017 as they were doing in '12-'14. AT&T is a very sexy pick IMO.
Added a large purchase of Citibank.
I'm loading up a lot of cash into play but into strategic areas.
I may look at Caterpillar again tomorrow. This stock has been so good to me over the past year and I pulled everything but my original investment a few months back, I think it's starting to look attractive once again.
AT&T added a dividend 4+% I believe today as well to compete with Verizon ostensibly. I think they may be poised for a big 2017 having had a tenuous year or two while using capital to acquire Dish Network a few years ago. Now that that's been pretty well integrated, I think they allows them to finally begin to aggressively expand their network in 2017 as they were doing in '12-'14. AT&T is a very sexy pick IMO.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I actually like Verizon a little better. AT&T (and everyone else) is a little behind what Verizon is doing with their networks. One of the reasons they took a pretty hard stance in their negotiations while employees were on strike is bc those employees are becoming obsolete. A lot of them were wired workers and VZ is ahead of the curve in wireless networks.
Either one works though, just a matter of preference, their performance mirrors each other.
I think oil rallies a little tomorrow, played the pit close today nicely. Mixed feelings on commodities truth be told, but I still lean bullish. With that being said, WTI has basically been sideways for 5 weeks.
Either one works though, just a matter of preference, their performance mirrors each other.
I think oil rallies a little tomorrow, played the pit close today nicely. Mixed feelings on commodities truth be told, but I still lean bullish. With that being said, WTI has basically been sideways for 5 weeks.
John Bender
Footballguy
Also hope you're right about oil.
I know I'm crazy but I bought into UCO and UWTI and haven't touched it in over a month
I know I'm crazy but I bought into UCO and UWTI and haven't touched it in over a month
John Bender
Footballguy
John Bender said:
Nice pop. 
John Bender
Footballguy
For the guys in the know...
So I did buy a stake in TWLO and with it nearing +22% today I'm wondering what to do.
I love the company and the stock. However, is there anything to correlate here with historical IPOs where things shoot up initial due to it being a shiny new object and then pullback later on after the hype is over?
I'm very torn. On one hand, I want to buy even more, on another, I want to shave off my profits.
Any advice on how to play this thing?
So I did buy a stake in TWLO and with it nearing +22% today I'm wondering what to do.
I love the company and the stock. However, is there anything to correlate here with historical IPOs where things shoot up initial due to it being a shiny new object and then pullback later on after the hype is over?
I'm very torn. On one hand, I want to buy even more, on another, I want to shave off my profits.
Any advice on how to play this thing?
John Bender
Footballguy
BTW: I just discovered www.finviz.com
What an absolutely fantastic site.
What an absolutely fantastic site.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This rally feels manufactured to me.
John Bender
Footballguy
#### it
In for 220 shares @ $27.92
Out for 217 shares @ $32.79
Profit of $1,056.79
I'll look for something back below 28 to re-enter most likely.
In for 220 shares @ $27.92
Out for 217 shares @ $32.79
Profit of $1,056.79
I'll look for something back below 28 to re-enter most likely.
John Bender
Footballguy
Other transactions made yesterday:
Bought 1000 LXU @ $9.94 - this one has been a fun (and profitable ride). Quite volatile.
Bought 630 C @ $39.13
Bought 500 UWTI @ $29.53 @fantasycurse42 :wave:
Bought 250 VOD @ $28.26 thanks to @Todem recommendation
#YOLO
Bought 1000 LXU @ $9.94 - this one has been a fun (and profitable ride). Quite volatile.
Bought 630 C @ $39.13
Bought 500 UWTI @ $29.53 @fantasycurse42 :wave:
Bought 250 VOD @ $28.26 thanks to @Todem recommendation
#YOLO
Todem
Footballguy
It's a low volume rally.
Sellers fatigue is what I see. More selling to come this summer IMO and we probably test those February lows one more time.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Thursday marks the end of Q2 and I have a feeling most money managers are going to be reporting dismal news to their investors. I think a lot of them have moved to more defensive positions with an eyeball to discounted buying next week after the holiday weekend. I'm holding out a small hope that there will be some window dressing buying today and tomorrow to ease the pain of reporting an awful month/quarter/YTD number to investors, but I'm not seeing it today after a promising start.
Thanks England. Glad your soccer team lost. ######s.
Thanks England. Glad your soccer team lost. ######s.
John Bender
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
A little skeptical... Mainly sidelined today. Hopefully fundamentals will come back into play. Last weeks numbers weren't especially bullish, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
Nigerian production coming back online, Canadian production ramping back up.
I mentioned this a while ago, but now it is here, possible oil strike from Norwegian workers - we'll find out by weeks end, that would be bullish.
