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Someone check my thinking, given impacts on Brexit:

long on gold next week and shorting Apple and Google for two or three days.  

I scared myself off shorting oil next week from my early post.  Was so blind lucky I am betting I'd better stay away.  

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5 hours ago, Shutout said:

Someone check my thinking, given impacts on Brexit:

long on gold next week and shorting Apple and Google for two or three days.  

I scared myself off shorting oil next week from my early post.  Was so blind lucky I am betting I'd better stay away.  

If you're shorting something, why short what are prob viewed as the two safest stocks on the market? You'd want to short something that is viewed as a risky asset, something like Tesla. 

FTR, I'm not saying to short Tesla, just giving an example.

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Had a call with our FA earlier. I hate them bc on days like today they're impossible to get a hold of, obviously every single client is calling, so I kinda get it, but whatever.

Anyways, strongly against his recommendation, I think I'm moving to all cash. The plays I post in here are my eTrade, mainly for short term or lately day trades.

I think this move to cash is for a decent amount of time too. I just don't see the upside, I don't think it's there. I see the downside, Brexit gives me the first actual thing I could put my finger on and say this can lead to our next economic crisis. I think they're first to go, I think others will follow in the next 12-24 months. This could lead to the collapse of the EU. Accompany that with anemic global growth, rates that are already on the floor leaving the central banks with no tools outside of QE, and I can see a crisis unfolding in 2 years or so. 

We also haven't had an 87, 2001, or 2007-2009 in a while, within a year or two, I think it's brewing.

I haven't made a final decision on this, but the upside versus downside seems risk off IMO. Say the DJIA can somehow rally to 20k in two years and then collapse to like 13k or 10k, even with dividends collecting, I think I'm better on the sidelines and just avoiding it for my long term stuff.

401k still undecided, but might heavily reallocate to bonds for the next 12-24 months.

Edited by fantasycurse42

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34 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Had a call with our FA earlier. I hate them bc on days like today they're impossible to get a hold of, obviously every single client is calling, so I kinda get it, but whatever.

Anyways, strongly against his recommendation, I think I'm moving to all cash. The plays I post in here are my eTrade, mainly for short term or lately day trades.

I think this move to cash is for a decent amount of time too. I just don't see the upside, I don't think it's there. I see the downside, Brexit gives me the first actual thing I could put my finger on and say this can lead to our next economic crisis. I think they're first to go, I think others will follow in the next 12-24 months. This could lead to the collapse of the EU. Accompany that with anemic global growth, rates that are already on the floor leaving the central banks with no tools outside of QE, and I can see a crisis unfolding in 2 years or so. 

We also haven't had an 87, 2001, or 2007-2009 in a while, within a year or two, I think it's brewing.

I haven't made a final decision on this, but the upside versus downside seems risk off IMO. Say the DJIA can somehow rally to 20k in two years and then collapse to like 13k or 10k, even with dividends collecting, I think I'm better on the sidelines and just avoiding it for my long term stuff.

401k still undecided, but might heavily reallocate to bonds for the next 12-24 months.

Definitely a tough market to invest in right now.  There are a lot of risks now with Europe,  oil, future rate hikes, and upcoming election.  One reason for optimism is that almost everyone is negative and equity outflows have been off the charts.  When bearish levels have been this high in the past the average equity return over the next 12 months has been double digits.

All that being said, you have to do what you are comfortable with.  My first question for people who want to go to all cash is what will be the trigger to get back invested?  If it goes up most just stay on the sidelines.   If it goes down they get more scared and will never get back in.  Not saying this about you, just general observations.

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I reallocated a few weeks back, so I won't be making any changes at this time. The losses I did take weren't too bad. Wife's TSP took the worst hit, the small percentage of individual stocks I own were a close second. There was some run up over the last week due to Brexit speculation. Comparing balances from 3 weeks ago to today, I guess it could have been a lot worse. With this happening on Friday, hopefully it gives everyone time to evaluate before they act. 

I'm 10+ years away from needing any of this money. Will continue to invest 15-20% of our income monthly. Hopefully slow and steady still wins the race.

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9 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Had a call with our FA earlier. I hate them bc on days like today they're impossible to get a hold of, obviously every single client is calling, so I kinda get it, but whatever.

Anyways, strongly against his recommendation, I think I'm moving to all cash. The plays I post in here are my eTrade, mainly for short term or lately day trades.

I think this move to cash is for a decent amount of time too. I just don't see the upside, I don't think it's there. I see the downside, Brexit gives me the first actual thing I could put my finger on and say this can lead to our next economic crisis. I think they're first to go, I think others will follow in the next 12-24 months. This could lead to the collapse of the EU. Accompany that with anemic global growth, rates that are already on the floor leaving the central banks with no tools outside of QE, and I can see a crisis unfolding in 2 years or so. 

We also haven't had an 87, 2001, or 2007-2009 in a while, within a year or two, I think it's brewing.

I haven't made a final decision on this, but the upside versus downside seems risk off IMO. Say the DJIA can somehow rally to 20k in two years and then collapse to like 13k or 10k, even with dividends collecting, I think I'm better on the sidelines and just avoiding it for my long term stuff.

401k still undecided, but might heavily reallocate to bonds for the next 12-24 months.

No he probably only has a handful of people calling like yourself and he's probably ready to kick you to the curb. Good luck day trading!

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If you're going to ignore your FA's strong advice, what are you paying him for? And now that you've gone your own way, how will you judge how good he is? Whether or not your portfolio moves up or down from here, now none of it is due to him. Might as well get rid of him. 

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On June 25, 2016 at 1:27 AM, fantasycurse42 said:

If you're shorting something, why short what are prob viewed as the two safest stocks on the market? You'd want to short something that is viewed as a risky asset, something like Tesla. 

FTR, I'm not saying to short Tesla, just giving an example.

Was going to short them both early in the week because the Brexit decision has driven down tech stocks globally (both were down 3-4% following the decision, as were Microsoft and other big name techs).  I'm thinking it will continue early in the week .  

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On June 25, 2016 at 11:11 AM, Vincesanity said:

No he probably only has a handful of people calling like yourself and he's probably ready to kick you to the curb. Good luck day trading!

The single biggest day of losses in the history of the stock market. 

Only a handful of people? Kick me to the curb? 

So you understand how their business works?

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On June 25, 2016 at 11:16 AM, Philo said:

If you're going to ignore your FA's strong advice, what are you paying him for? And now that you've gone your own way, how will you judge how good he is? Whether or not your portfolio moves up or down from here, now none of it is due to him. Might as well get rid of him. 

If I'm all cash, I'm not paying him anything. FA's are like real estate agents, none of them will ever say now isn't a good time.

 

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11 hours ago, Shutout said:

Was going to short them both early in the week because the Brexit decision has driven down tech stocks globally (both were down 3-4% following the decision, as were Microsoft and other big name techs).  I'm thinking it will continue early in the week .  

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. 

If Google or Apple are falling hard (and Microsoft), EVERYTHING is falling hard. Those are some of the "safest" stocks from investors viewpoints. If you want to short something, you need to short things that have high international exposure, momentum stocks, funny valuations. 

Netflix is one that would stand out to me.

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Netflix would have been my pick as well, if you're really trying to take this strategy. But it's gambling, plain and simple. 

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14 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. 

If Google or Apple are falling hard (and Microsoft), EVERYTHING is falling hard. Those are some of the "safest" stocks from investors viewpoints. If you want to short something, you need to short things that have high international exposure, momentum stocks, funny valuations. 

Netflix is one that would stand out to me.

Gotcha.  Thanks for the thought. Very enlightening.  I guess that WOULD be where you could really see the needle move. If there is such a thing, I guess I'm on the conservative "short" side (instead of going for a big splash on something higher risk/moving, I'm just poking along. 

I got luck last week and admittedly know I'm sticking my toes in something I'm still very green to so I went the route this morning of shorting AAPL on 100 shares. I'm already having stomach flips LOL.

 

Thanks again. This has become a favorite thread of mine to follow.

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Reading the news it sure sounds like there will be a reversal, or else whatever happens with brexit will take a really long time to engage.  This selloff on this news seems so dumb.  I'm looking to repop international securities at earliest opportunity.

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11 minutes ago, Shutout said:

Gotcha.  Thanks for the thought. Very enlightening.  I guess that WOULD be where you could really see the needle move. If there is such a thing, I guess I'm on the conservative "short" side (instead of going for a big splash on something higher risk/moving, I'm just poking along. 

I got luck last week and admittedly know I'm sticking my toes in something I'm still very green to so I went the route this morning of shorting AAPL on 100 shares. I'm already having stomach flips LOL.

 

Thanks again. This has become a favorite thread of mine to follow.

My best advice is to not get greedy here. 

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16 minutes ago, John Bender said:

Grabbing 300 shares of C @ 39.19

I was looking at them over the weekend... As I said earlier, I'm not a huge long buyer right now, but they seem to be positioned decently to withstand some headwinds.

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26 minutes ago, Shutout said:

Gotcha.  Thanks for the thought. Very enlightening.  I guess that WOULD be where you could really see the needle move. If there is such a thing, I guess I'm on the conservative "short" side (instead of going for a big splash on something higher risk/moving, I'm just poking along. 

I got luck last week and admittedly know I'm sticking my toes in something I'm still very green to so I went the route this morning of shorting AAPL on 100 shares. I'm already having stomach flips LOL.

 

Thanks again. This has become a favorite thread of mine to follow.

NFLX down 3.5% Appl 1.5%... If people are fleeing, they'll be fleeing Netflix and their insane P/E way ahead of Apple and their low P/E of 10. Also, the flip side, when people feel comfortable to get back in, they're going back to safety at first, Google/Apple/Microsoft so you'll get caught on the wrong side their first too.

If Apple or Google are sinking so is everything. So my point again, if you're on the short side, short momentum stocks, not safety stocks. 

Avoid shorting things like AT&T/VZ who have high yields when treasury yields are getting crushed too. 

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On another note, going to be a battle to claw back those losses... Done for the day, don't want to get greedy, not getting Friday back in one shot, but a nice start to recouping the anal pounding I took then. Need the mentality every single day is a new day and that is that. 

http://i.imgur.com/Gcm3Xb3.png

Edited by fantasycurse42

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29 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Reading the news it sure sounds like there will be a reversal, or else whatever happens with brexit will take a really long time to engage.  This selloff on this news seems so dumb.  I'm looking to repop international securities at earliest opportunity.

I agree, there will be a day, maybe tomorrow or Wednesday with a DJIA gain of 3-400 points, but I don't think there will be a ton of follow-through on it. 

The upside is kinda #### and the downside has some room, I think there will be a lot of caution.

Don't see a DJIA really blowing much past 18k and S&P much higher than 2100 without some sort of unforeseen catalyst. Who knows, maybe the Fed decides to pump some QE into the system, I'd be a short term buyer with news like that. 

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15 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

If I'm all cash, I'm not paying him anything. FA's are like real estate agents, none of them will ever say now isn't a good time.

 

You just have not found the right adviser.

There are times you don't buy. And there are times we build a lot of cash. And sell covered calls as I explained a while back.

Now I have been buying those calls back for pennies on the dollar making 85-95% on those covered call trades. I add value to my clients portfolios and basically cover my management fee with covered call writing. They love it. I work my ### off for my clients when the market is doing this.

 

EG:

 

Sold 50 McDonalds Sep 135 call for 1.05 back on 3/9/2016 (took in $5,250)

Bought it back today for .06! (94% gain) (paid $300 to close the position)

That is adding value.

It is when I really earn my fee. 

Now for clients I only do mutual fund portfolios it is a different approach. But we will tactically reallocate between equities, fixed income and Alt's to help ease the pain of these kinds of swings. I also re-balance twice a year in IRA portfolios, and once a year in taxable portfolios (December for tax harvesting reasons).

If you have a really good adviser who is proactive your lucky. Because I do agree that most so called advisers are idiots (can't deny that because I have a ton of them in my office). But there is about 10% of us who actually truly understand what we are doing and work for our clients and not a fast commission.

 

I was on the phone with my clients between 7:30-9AM on Friday morning just filling them in on what the impacts of this "Brexit" could be. I proactively call my clients, not react to them calling me. My all equity clients were already sitting in 20 plus percent of cash since May as I sold covered calls and sold some overvalued stocks for gains to build cash.

And VOD is stupid at these levels. High quality, great dividend. Strong buy here as it is dropping another 5% today.....just emotional irrational selling on a global telecom company with a strong balance sheet and dividend.

 

NGG is slightly down (1.76%) after a big fall Friday. I love that one too.

 

Edited by Todem
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5 minutes ago, Todem said:

 

And to counter this dudes Vincesanity's point, I'd argue that your clients have been reaching out in much higher volumes Friday/today with some concern, no? The markets experienced a huge shock, this is when people get nervous.

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34 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

And to counter this dudes Vincesanity's point, I'd argue that your clients have been reaching out in much higher volumes Friday/today with some concern, no? The markets experienced a huge shock, this is when people get nervous.

No they have not. I have been telling them for months as this rally was taking place that we will have heavy volatility this summer. No question we would. So don't be surprised. Consistent communication via email news letters, quarterly calls, semi annual reviews helps a lot. I think the most important thing advisers can do is consistently communicate with their clients and get out in front of events like this.

I have had a couple of phone calls of course......but I was calling just about everyone (whom I have marked as more conservative clients as well as my equity sleeve clients) Friday morning as a proactive measure.

I am a highly proactive portfolio manager. 97% of my clients are well informed, calm and not surprised with this volatility. I always have a small portion of my book that may get a lot more jittery in these down turns because that is who they are. But even they are doing fine. 

Edited by Todem

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59 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I agree, there will be a day, maybe tomorrow or Wednesday with a DJIA gain of 3-400 points, but I don't think there will be a ton of follow-through on it. 

The upside is kinda #### and the downside has some room, I think there will be a lot of caution.

Don't see a DJIA really blowing much past 18k and S&P much higher than 2100 without some sort of unforeseen catalyst. Who knows, maybe the Fed decides to pump some QE into the system, I'd be a short term buyer with news like that. 

My opinion is after the election we march to to new highs on the Dow and S&P thru 2017. I am going to get very defensive again come 3rd and 4th quarter of 2017.

We are in the 8th-9th innings of this latest bull market which began in the second half of 2009 after the massive blow out of most retail investors (who also have missed most of this rally).

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7 minutes ago, Todem said:

We are in the 8th-9th innings of this latest bull market 

This is at best IMO, at worst, we're entering bear market. Hence, the limited upside I see.

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11 minutes ago, Todem said:

I have had a couple of phone calls of course......but I was calling just about everyone (whom I have marked as more conservative clients as well as my equity sleeve clients) Friday morning as a proactive measure.

But you've spoken to a good portion of your clients, regardless of who has made the calls. This is my point. 

It is simple psychology, people get jittery when the risks start coming in. They need to know what is going on with their money.

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I still think buying some TWLO right now where it is is prudent. 

This company has a chance to really blow up (in a good way)

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

But you've spoken to a good portion of your clients, regardless of who has made the calls. This is my point. 

It is simple psychology, people get jittery when the risks start coming in. They need to know what is going on with their money.

Yeah agree 100%

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6 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

This is at best IMO, at worst, we're entering bear market. Hence, the limited upside I see.

Agree again. That is the best case scenario. The reason I see a little more juice is because of how slow the Fed has been in raising interest rates. People need yield to live and the Banks can't give anyone jack. Once interest rates start to normalize we can get back to true fundamentals driving stocks and bonds. However the ascent to normalized rates will yield a lot of pain and a true correction. But once we get through that #### storm we can get back into upward long term trajectory again (as has been the case for the last 80 plus years).

Edited by Todem

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Wondering if it's too late to go to cash or hedge for the possible Trump victory? If the Trump-lite guys in Britain can crater the international markets, hate to think what will happen to my retirement savings when the nationalist, anti-free trade guy wins here. 

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20 minutes ago, Todem said:

Once interest rates start to normalize 

I just don't see this happening for a very very long time, the Fed has left us with no outs. I've stated in the mortgage thread now for about a year that 6% 30 years are a thing of the past (since they tie directly into the 10 year treasury yields). I'm confident the 30 year will be under 3% at some point in the next 12-36 months (which is about 20% lower than it is today). Most of the bond gurus kinda echo this sentiment if you read between the lines in their statements. 

We know for close to a fact that a rate hike is off the table in 2016, we also know there is going to be volatility leading up to the election. Treasury yields will continue to fall. I'd expect to be in the 1.2-1.3% range by November (which I believe will be all-time lows). The Fed can't raise the FFR, impossible. We have yields all over the world in negative percentages... I truly don't understand who would ever buy that? Why? There is no other investment that you are GUARANTEED to lose money on, just makes no sense. We didn't learn from the Japanese's mistakes of 20 years ago (as they're still stuck in this no interest rate/negative rate cycle with no end in sight) and we're heading down the same path. 

We're kinda ####ed with interest rates, savers are done. Wouldn't be surprised within 5 years if it costs money to keep it in the bank. 

What really scares me at this point is during crisis times, if you look historically, a central bank will reduce rates by 3-500 basis points, that is something that cannot be done right now. They're out of tools. All they have left is liquid injections, and honestly, after an unprecedented period of doing this, we're still sitting on minimal growth. 

I just don't see how there aren't rocky times ahead. I think the only things keeping the markets from taking a 20% haircut right now is the public's confidence in the central banks, I don't have that confidence.

YMMV, just my opinion.

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30 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I just don't see this happening for a very very long time, the Fed has left us with no outs. I've stated in the mortgage thread now for about a year that 6% 30 years are a thing of the past (since they tie directly into the 10 year treasury yields). I'm confident the 30 year will be under 3% at some point in the next 12-36 months (which is about 20% lower than it is today). Most of the bond gurus kinda echo this sentiment if you read between the lines in their statements. 

We know for close to a fact that a rate hike is off the table in 2016, we also know there is going to be volatility leading up to the election. Treasury yields will continue to fall. I'd expect to be in the 1.2-1.3% range by November (which I believe will be all-time lows). The Fed can't raise the FFR, impossible. We have yields all over the world in negative percentages... I truly don't understand who would ever buy that? Why? There is no other investment that you are GUARANTEED to lose money on, just makes no sense. We didn't learn from the Japanese's mistakes of 20 years ago (as they're still stuck in this no interest rate/negative rate cycle with no end in sight) and we're heading down the same path. 

We're kinda ####ed with interest rates, savers are done. Wouldn't be surprised within 5 years if it costs money to keep it in the bank. 

What really scares me at this point is during crisis times, if you look historically, a central bank will reduce rates by 3-500 basis points, that is something that cannot be done right now. They're out of tools. All they have left is liquid injections, and honestly, after an unprecedented period of doing this, we're still sitting on minimal growth. 

I just don't see how there aren't rocky times ahead. I think the only things keeping the markets from taking a 20% haircut right now is the public's confidence in the central banks, I don't have that confidence.

YMMV, just my opinion.

A strong bear case. If interest rates don't start going up over the next year we are no doubt going to have some serious pain long term. They must pivot. When the Fed is too concerned with other Central Banks things will get worse for us. We are healthier than Europe and need to de-couple from them in regards to central bank coordination. They were two steps behind us in lowering rates and now this is the result. While I understand we are in a global economy.....we must be careful with our own monetary policy. We must be focused on our fundamentals and indicators. We should have been raising .25 every quarter since 1st quarter 2015......but we did not. Some would have even argued as early as 2014 to start raising rates (and I would have agreed with that).  It's absurd we have had one raise....one. We should have been doing this for a year already. I know the Fed is not supposedly political nor swayed by politics......but I wonder how much of this is political (White House) persuasion. I seriously wonder. I have never seen anything like this in my life. It's insane. We pulled out of the recession years ago and never got our monetary policy back in line. 

Let's use Mac and Cheese inflation illustration.

1998 Box of Mac and Cheese from Kraft cost you .89 cents

2008 a box of Mac and Cheese from Kraft cost you 1.19 (up 33% in 8 years)

2016 a box of Mac and Cheese from Kraft cost's you 1.89 (up 59% in the next 8 years)

112% over 18 years.

 

That is the price I pay in a local Publix. I know prices varies state to state, zip code to zip code (another price rig IMO btw).

 

6.22% per year. But the inflation rate is barely 2% if you listen to the news. Of course that number is ex food and gas (which are monthly staples for us).

Fuel has come back to earth recently as we know. But food? Nope. Keeps marching higher and higher. And fuel will again too. Mark my words.

So the Fed is not raising because of not reaching inflation goals and unemployment goals, yet us with boots on the ground know how the cost of living keeps rising each and every year (health insurance anyone?). 

They are out of touch with reality. I do not know how else to explain the lack of interest rate movement. Seriously a huge problem and they need to get on it or the roosters will come home to roost in the next 12-24 months.

 

So we are on the same page.

 

Did not mean to drift off topic. Back to stock talk!

Edited by Todem
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Food inflation is the biggest story no one is paying attention to.

 

Remember the $5 Footlong? Now it's $5 for a six-inch, a 100% price increase

Fast food places rarely have anything on the dollar menu besides snacks (that are getting smaller). They don't even call it the "dollar menu" anymore. Used to be you could get a double cheeseburger for 89 cents. Now, check out the "Dollar And More" menu (really... if it's everything priced under a dollar, and more than a dollar, isn't that the whole menu?), and the burger is a buck-sixty at least.

Chicken is outrageous nowadays. You'll pay eight to ten dollars a bird at the grocery store. And wings? Anyone remember ten cent wings? Maybe 25 cent wings? Now places advertise proudly they offer the best deal on wings at a mere 75-cents per. 75 cents per wing! Insane.

 

People get all focused on inflation being "so low" at only 2%, but throw the cost of food for an average person's budget, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was double or more.

 

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5 minutes ago, Philo said:

Food inflation is the biggest story no one is paying attention to.

 

Remember the $5 Footlong? Now it's $5 for a six-inch, a 100% price increase

Fast food places rarely have anything on the dollar menu besides snacks (that are getting smaller). They don't even call it the "dollar menu" anymore. Used to be you could get a double cheeseburger for 89 cents. Now, check out the "Dollar And More" menu (really... if it's everything priced under a dollar, and more than a dollar, isn't that the whole menu?), and the burger is a buck-sixty at least.

Chicken is outrageous nowadays. You'll pay eight to ten dollars a bird at the grocery store. And wings? Anyone remember ten cent wings? Maybe 25 cent wings? Now places advertise proudly they offer the best deal on wings at a mere 75-cents per. 75 cents per wing! Insane.

 

People get all focused on inflation being "so low" at only 2%, but throw the cost of food for an average person's budget, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was double or more.

 

Well at least Micky D's re-instituted 49 cent hamburgers 69 cent cheeseburgers on Wednesday and Sunday's again LOL. 

Other than that....yeah. Fast food prices are getting stupid expensive. Same crappy food and service, just cost's more and more every year.

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3 hours ago, Philo said:

Food inflation is the biggest story no one is paying attention to.

 

Remember the $5 Footlong? Now it's $5 for a six-inch, a 100% price increase

Fast food places rarely have anything on the dollar menu besides snacks (that are getting smaller). They don't even call it the "dollar menu" anymore. Used to be you could get a double cheeseburger for 89 cents. Now, check out the "Dollar And More" menu (really... if it's everything priced under a dollar, and more than a dollar, isn't that the whole menu?), and the burger is a buck-sixty at least.

Chicken is outrageous nowadays. You'll pay eight to ten dollars a bird at the grocery store. And wings? Anyone remember ten cent wings? Maybe 25 cent wings? Now places advertise proudly they offer the best deal on wings at a mere 75-cents per. 75 cents per wing! Insane.

 

People get all focused on inflation being "so low" at only 2%, but throw the cost of food for an average person's budget, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was double or more.

 

Add in a shift in the size of the container. That won't even show up in inflation. Someone like subway is forced to raise prices because it's a 'foot long' sub. Other places can simply make the burger a little smaller for example. Candy bars..they are smaller. Some bean counter or other POS who came up with that idea probably got a giant promotion and bonus for screwing the rest of us without most people even knowing it.

At least this screws over the fatties the most.

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S&P closed at 2k on the nose... I expect a small relief rally tomorrow. I'm not buying though.

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I added to my oil positions today pretty heavily.

Added a large purchase of Citibank.

I'm loading up a lot of cash into play but into strategic areas.

 

I may look at Caterpillar again tomorrow.  This stock has been so good to me over the past year and I pulled everything but my original investment a few months back, I think it's starting to look attractive once again.

 

AT&T added a dividend 4+% I believe today as well to compete with Verizon ostensibly.  I think they may be poised for a big 2017 having had a tenuous year or two while using capital to acquire Dish Network a few years ago.  Now that that's been pretty well integrated, I think they allows them to finally begin to aggressively expand their network in 2017 as they were doing in '12-'14.  AT&T is a very sexy pick IMO.

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I actually like Verizon a little better. AT&T (and everyone else) is a little behind what Verizon is doing with their networks. One of the reasons they took a pretty hard stance in their negotiations while employees were on strike is bc those employees are becoming obsolete. A lot of them were wired workers and VZ is ahead of the curve in wireless networks.

Either one works though, just a matter of preference, their performance mirrors each other.

I think oil rallies a little tomorrow, played the pit close today nicely. Mixed feelings on commodities truth be told, but I still lean bullish. With that being said, WTI has basically been sideways for 5 weeks.

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6 hours ago, Todem said:

Well at least Micky D's re-instituted 49 cent hamburgers 69 cent cheeseburgers on Wednesday and Sunday's again LOL. 

Other than that....yeah. Fast food prices are getting stupid expensive. Same crappy food and service, just cost's more and more every year.

Gotta pay that $15/hour wage.

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Also hope you're right about oil.

 

I know I'm crazy but I bought into UCO and UWTI and haven't touched it in over a month 

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10 hours ago, ericttspikes said:

Wondering if it's too late to go to cash or hedge for the possible Trump victory? If the Trump-lite guys in Britain can crater the international markets, hate to think what will happen to my retirement savings when the nationalist, anti-free trade guy wins here. 

:lmao:

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21 hours ago, John Bender said:

I still think buying some TWLO right now where it is is prudent. 

This company has a chance to really blow up (in a good way)

:towelwave: Nice pop. 

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21 hours ago, ericttspikes said:

Wondering if it's too late to go to cash or hedge for the possible Trump victory? If the Trump-lite guys in Britain can crater the international markets, hate to think what will happen to my retirement savings when the nationalist, anti-free trade guy wins here. 

I'm all out if it looks like he has any chance of winning. It's not too late now. 

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I think if it looks like Trump wins I just put every dime into the VIX and then drink myself to death.

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For the guys in the know...

 

So I did buy a stake in TWLO and with it nearing +22% today I'm wondering what to do.

I love the company and the stock.  However, is there anything to correlate here with historical IPOs where things shoot up initial due to it being a shiny new object and then pullback later on after the hype is over?

I'm very torn.  On one hand, I want to buy even more, on another, I want to shave off my profits.  

Any advice on how to play this thing?

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This rally feels manufactured to me.

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