fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Do you plan on doing anything with the money before 2045?
If the answer is no, just leave it alone and don't even look at it.
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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
If the answer is no, just leave it alone and don't even look at it.
NREC34
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
You could look to rebalance, but all hard data says you'll be worse off trying to time moves over the course of 30 years.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
AMZN (all FANG) getting taken to the woodshed for the last week. Prob not looking to catch a bottom, but I might look for some when it turns.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
BABA wow... Holy #### CMG! Haven't looked since I covered, WTF? http://i.imgur.com/UdCIk9i.png
Have to do some DD, this one might be calling me back.
Have to do some DD, this one might be calling me back.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I covered CMG when I read about the avocado market recovering, but wow, pretty insane tear this thing is on.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Something going on in AMAYA for those who still own it. Trading halted. Was down most of the day. Up over a dollar now.
We need a "sad trombone" sound effect. Fits better than just
Just ready for this to end already.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Yeah no ####. PNRA also on a tear, at least still have that one. Also all of the malls and big box retailers. Like I posted a few days ago, welcome to the Trump time machine. America is already great again just as it was in those worry free days of the 1980's. Personally I'm putting all of my money into Orange Julius, Pizza by the Slice, Aladdin's Castle and Hot Sam.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
I did....I just held on too long to too much. Still, avg cost basis is < $5. End this movie please Baazov.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
So, it didn't go to 85. That's a healthy haul. Enjoy watching your kids kegstand it away.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
At their peak Aladdin's Castle had over 450 locations. I had no clue they were that big. Moving all my Chess King money there.
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Damn, me either.Bob Sacamano said:
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
No, I COMPLETELY ####ed this up. I should have only sold my shares I bought high. SO stupid on my part.RUSF18 said:
Kind of sick last night about it and of course a pop today, wouldn't be surprised if I caught the bottom, AGAIN. So I'm buying a little bit back already and hope that the sell off continues after today.
15 GOOGL at $774.00
15 AMZN at $738.67
:hairflip:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
TBH, I was a bit surprised at how hard AMZN has been selling too.
It looks like rotations to me, moving from the high growth tech stocks to financials and industrials.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
That's what all the experts have been saying. I was fearful that it was going to rotate all of my profit away. Now I'm hopeful this is a dead cat and we see a further move down. When I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I ####ed this trade up. What makes it worse is the tax implications.
siffoin
Footballguy
FWIW: I think it was a good move selling. Take a broader view and forget the day to day noise. Hindsight is 20:20 of course as it's difficult to know the future.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Do you have any positions you consider long-term holds? Or that's just not in your playbook no matter the stock?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Thanks GB Siff, I guess, as always, time will tell if it was the right move. I'm interested to hear you answer to Sac's questions as well.
Warrior
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
There is nothing out there crazier than bulk shippers. The 1Y range on this stock is 100x.
siffoin
Footballguy
I'm not bearish overall. We're just talking $FB and $AMZN here. As I've said, I don't believe $FB model will hold up and I think it is extremely overvalued. It was at $130...it is at $115...I think it is at $51. As for $AMZN....technically I think the chart looks weak. Personally I like $AMZN. I'm a customer since 1997...I order something from them a couple times per week. Same I said with $CMG a few weeks back...technically I thought $CMG looked weak with a price target of $355. I personally like $CMG but the price target was spot on.
$CMG to $355
I think what you may be asking is a larger question. Is there any stock I would never consider selling? That's really difficult to answer. There are some stocks/ETFs I hold in my kids trust that it would be difficult to sell for him. I think the reason we'd hold/add in a downturn is for the conversation over the next 10 years about them. These positions are obviously skewed and purposely towards his personal interests. When I think of really long term holds I like to pretend I'm like Arthur C. Clarke and imagine what the future might be like. Some of it bad...some of it great. With a 5-10-15-20 year horizon try to find companies/etfs that have the potential to significantly out-gain the $SP500. Accepting some losers in the process- as well as missed opportunities.
"If the stock market drops 40% - it doesn't matter because eventually it will return to it's old highs and even exceed them."
This "might" mostly be a true statement. The one part of the equation left out here is time. If the stock market drops 40%...my 14 year old has time on his side. 50 year old me...that's a lot tougher. Where you fall on your lifetime investment time line matters. Assuming you're not 14...it matters a lot more than you may realize.
Long term charts on the $SPY remain bullish - I think I'd get concerned with a weekly close below $200. That's not to say the guts of the charts look great. They show signs of weakening. But a bull market is a bull market until it is a bear...and it is still a bull. With that said, I just don't see why taking profits on winners that have rolled to the bear side is a bad idea. Let your winners run...but also have a line in the sand where you take your profits.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Pretty much this. Thinking specifically of companies like GOOGL and AAPL. Lump AMZN in there, too, if you want. I doubt they're going anywhere anytime soon. I can see the possibility of owning both for a very long time. Are there going to be bumps in the road for each of them in that long time horizon? Almost certainly. It's easy to :notsell: when you're up 50% and you watch that dip to 38%. It becomes much tougher when they reach that 20% mark where you might follow through on not letting a winner become a loser, despite your long-term belief in the company.
Are "you" that disciplined? If not, when does long-term belief trump short-term pain? When do you say enough is enough? And how much are you going to hate yourself when you buy back in 10% higher than you sold? On most positions, I actually don't find it difficult to take the emotion out of investing. It's the companies you really want to own where it's a different game imo. I was just curious how somebody who seems to take a much more algorithm based approach views those long-term "want to own" stocks when he's basically delivered the eulogy for buy-and-hold investing.
Hi FBG friends. Hope some of you jumped onto ADPT when I pointed out it's free fall and landing around 8. Trading up about 20% since then. I don't have the cajones, myself, in fact I am writing here looking to move into the safe haven of gold.
What's the best long-term way to play gold? Buy the physical stuff, buy GLD (expense ratio is 0.40, tracks to gold), buy GDX (mostly mining stocks, not sure what the expense ratio is), or as a Vanguard investor, I could buy VGPMX, their ETF, but it hasn't performed well against benchmarks.
I'm leaning towards GLD--thoughts from the FBG experts? Thanks for your help.
What's the best long-term way to play gold? Buy the physical stuff, buy GLD (expense ratio is 0.40, tracks to gold), buy GDX (mostly mining stocks, not sure what the expense ratio is), or as a Vanguard investor, I could buy VGPMX, their ETF, but it hasn't performed well against benchmarks.
I'm leaning towards GLD--thoughts from the FBG experts? Thanks for your help.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
GDX way too volatile IMO, might as well just buy GC options on that.
I'm skeptical gold right now. GLD will be lowest in risk/reward/punishment IMO.
I'm skeptical gold right now. GLD will be lowest in risk/reward/punishment IMO.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I stand by this, prob rally DJIA to 20kish and then the burn in late 2017 early 2018.
A decade of 0%, Trump's super infrastructure plan, a debt that is going to explode, central bank confidence will be eroded, a market that is already frothy, and an overshoot of inflation on the horizon. Oh yea, the dollar on fire.
Ingredients starting to mix.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Seriously hate myself for ####### this trade up so bad. I blame weeks of sobriety.
Just added 15 more GOOGL at $788.00 for 30 at $781.00 and 15 AMZN at $756.91 for 30 at $747.79. So stupid of me for not selling just half and waiting.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Also added 2075 IGR at $7.24. GREAT yield at this price after a big pull back. Hoping it falls more, along with just about everything else for that matter. Of course that means the market will go up every day until the end of the year.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Here is my only comment here and when I find myself getting into trouble with ins/outs too quickly and act on emotion:
What was your reason for selling? Did you think it was just going to collapse? What is your plan if AMZN suddenly turns south again and heads toward $700?
I'm not really looking for answers, just some things I now try to think about when getting in and out after I think I've made a mistake - this is usually when I'll personally double down and compound what I thought was a mistake and actually make it a mistake.
Good luck, I think they're both great companies regardless of short term noise.
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More likely, IMO, is that the Fed will and raise rates sharply before this piece happens. Either way, not expecting the stock market to be doing great by then.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
They were in free fall and hard to tell when they were going to stop. There was no floor in sight and I already lost a lot of profit. Again, I ####ed up. I HOPE AMZN heads towards $700 again as I'm about half in both of these.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It's almost too late for the dollar portion, Euro getting crushed - We could see parity between the Euro/Dollar for the first time in 14 years very soon. Pound has been getting slaughtered too since Brexit, it caught a momentary reprieve from the Parliament Article 50 intervention, but it hasn't been able to continue on that momentum and might resume the downtrend too. Yen is the only major currency holding up okay (still down almost 10% since September, but in historical comparisons, holding up okay), but honestly I think the first domino in the loss of confidence in Central Banks will hit Kuroda/Japan and could open the floodgates. They admitted their current track wasn't working back in September and changed gears trying to steepen the long end of the curve.
Right now the banks are euphoric since they'll basically be controlling DC and I think a rally can continue - I just think there is a decent chance we're setting ourselves up for a real crash in the coming 12-24 months.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
No, I get it SLB, I'm guilty of that exact action 1000000x over, done it countless times.
This is kinda why I say I won't sell anything (except a rebalance) in my 401k for at least the next decade. Everyone does it, it's been studied over and over - you get scared, sell lower and buy back higher. Everyone is guilty of this one, I wouldn't beat myself up about it, just don't let the emotions get the best of you and have a plan as volatility has returned.
My bad, read the "on fire" comment as collapsing rather than increasing. My thoughts were more on the inflation piece.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
WFC new accounts off 44% YoY, with new credit cards off 35%, and the stock's at a 10 month high.
Maybe those past numbers were inflated. Someone should look into thatWFC new accounts off 44% YoY, with new credit cards off 35%, and the stock's at a 10 month high.
siffoin
Footballguy
My best guess.
I still think you were correct in selling $AMZN (I like the company).
I think it can possibly go higher in the short term- $780ish? Maybe higher. Next week is a big shop[ping week - I'd guess their numbers are great
I think if I were to place odds they'd look like this:
25% I'm wrong and $AMZN is on its way to old highs and exceed them
50% Before the old highs are exceeded - $AMZN breaks below $700 towards $620
25% Before old highs are exceeded - $AMZN breaks below $600 towards $560.
All things being equal I'm a buyer at $560.
Current market exuberance might tilt the odds of me being wrong higher than the 25% so that's a best guess. In addition - the bear trend comes at the worst time for this particular company - as holiday sales likely will be good. This is just my technical reading of the charts. Don't directly hold $AMZN except in ETFs. Please don't sell your position on my point of view either. We can all come back and have a good laugh at my expense when it's $1000.
