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Stock Thread (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I just looked at my 401k and see that I am up 11.65% ytd. I am pretty aggressive with only 10% invested in bonds.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Forgot there were a couple of exceptions to my general rule of waiting until the inauguration.
Bought 35 GILD at $71.32
Bought 40 LLY at $67.07
Bought 35 GILD at $71.32
Bought 40 LLY at $67.07
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Company is a money machine and the market gives them no love.
Like the buy, hopefully they get the love they deserve from the street - GL!
Sand
Footballguy
Portfolio up 11% even YTD. Total net worth +14.5% YTD.
Allocation is 50% equities, 10% real estate, 30% bonds, 10% cash.
lardonastick
Footballguy
I manage my wife and my 401k's together. We are up 17.8% YTD with the following funds:
LLSCX - 33% (Mid-cap blend)
DODGX - 30% (Large value)
PMEGX - 22% (Mid-cap growth)
LSBDX - 15% (Multisector bond)
401k is up 12.8% YTD here
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Well, #### you guys then - I was very proud of my 401k 
No seriously, good work, basically everyone here is beating the S&P, pretty impressive.
No seriously, good work, basically everyone here is beating the S&P, pretty impressive.
Not sure why you are gauging your ytd gain vs. an aribitrary index such as S&P
S&P up ~8.8% ytd
DJIA up ~11.7% ytd
NASDAQ up ~8.01% ytd
Russell 2000 up ~ 21.6% ytd
my retirement account is about inline with the DJIA. my brokerage account is beating all of these indexes ytd.
Can't wait for April 15th.
S&P up ~8.8% ytd
DJIA up ~11.7% ytd
NASDAQ up ~8.01% ytd
Russell 2000 up ~ 21.6% ytd
my retirement account is about inline with the DJIA. my brokerage account is beating all of these indexes ytd.
Can't wait for April 15th.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Sand
Footballguy
Don't sell anything and you won't have to worry about it. Actually on top of this year's gains I've managed to book a good bit of tax losses - probably a net tax loss on the year. I did have some preferred stocks I bought in '08 get redeemed out from under me. Not sure what the total gains were on those, but it's decent. Those were good trades, for sure.
Sand
Footballguy
Much too late for that. I had a lot of MSFT and when it hit 55 I sold 3/4 of my position feeling this was too good to be true. I'm pretty stupid though. I actually have no losers left in my brokerage account as I sold any year end last year.
Sand
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'd assume he probably drives a Tesla, worst case a Prius - so he is doing that for everyone.Look at the moneybags socialist over here!
457b. 80% small caps since the election day except for the dip starting Nov. 25th to close on Dec. 1st. Yes, I absolutely nailed the timing of getting out and back in on that dip. Following Avi Gilbert's Elliot Wave articles is working like a champ.
S&P - 9.90% YTD.
NAZ - 8.19% YTD.
Me - 11.5% YTD and standing next to the exit.
Todem
Footballguy
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sbonomo
Footballguy
Holly chit - 15.66% YTD - I new this was a good run by my goodness. 2050 balanced fund and a blended small/mid cap fund.
Sand
Footballguy
Your port and mine aren't too dissimilar. When you think about it, matching the S&P in a year when foreign is doing 4%, bonds 2%, emerging markets negative, etc. is pretty darn good.There is absolutely nothing wrong with that percentage on what is going to be a much lower beta portfolio than something in all stocks.
Personally I was absolutely trouncing the S&P, by 5% or so, before Trump landed in office. The S&P has caught up, but I regret not at all having a portfolio that will drop much, much less than the S&P when it dives.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
My IRA is just over 15% with dividend payouts coming next week. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself with the new year coming but holding off on the next years contribution seems wise to me. Buying in at this high point with a changing of the guard coming, would it be wise to throw money in there right away? I'm unsure.
Sand
Footballguy
The business cycle is intact, so in the medium term I'd say yes. In the short term you have to think this market is way overbought. What a charging bull. I'm hoping for a bit of a pullback to get some more money in. All IMO, of course.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
I'm just, like everyone else, am curious what Congress does January 21st. Will trade deals get squashed if this market is accurate? If trade deals and/or taxes and/or the fed touch anything, how will the market react? If it's bulling now, one variable gets affected can it really bull harder? Has to be some effect in a bad way since it's affecting the apple cart. I just don't know if putting IRA money in before January 20th is a good play. What values might there be?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
May the good times never end! ~Seabisquit
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
2000 SPYLF at $0.29
This is gambling, not investing.
This is gambling, not investing.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This market has at least another 10-15% in it. 2008-2009 is long forgotten about, we've got a Goldman guy in charge (he cares about us lol), deregulations coming, and a group of egomaniac Trump friends running the country. What could go wrong?
Peak to trough I'm calling 22,890 - 13,700 when the implosion hits.
Peak to trough I'm calling 22,890 - 13,700 when the implosion hits.
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cosjobs
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
That was from the movie. They were having an opulent dinner and that was the toast. Next scene showed him in a shanty town huddled around a fire because of the stock market crash. Absolutely horrifying to me. My Great Grandmother lived through the depression and I was fortunate enough to spend a lot of time with her and have her around until my mid-30's. I learned first hand what it was like and as kid, in my early years, that grew up poor, vowed it would never happen to me. Not after all of my hard work to get me where I am. I'm not getting greedy here.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Yep. As documented here, I sold a lot recently. Wish I wouldn't have so early now but money is in the bank.
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Todem
Footballguy
I am riding this charging bull through year end and then we will evaluate. I have such long term stock holdings (we are talking 25 plus years of positions in most of my personal portfolio).
However I have already begun to write covered calls on many positions as well as buying some married puts (17-20% out of the money) for dirt cheap insurance going 3-6 months out.
Regardless we will be fine. But I am feeling we will get a pretty good breather first no later than second quarter, but we will have one more nice year before we can really know which direction we are going.
The multiple expansion is getting way ahead of itself. No doubt. But there is no where else to put your money in this near zero interest rate environment. The Fed is going to move really really slow.
However I have already begun to write covered calls on many positions as well as buying some married puts (17-20% out of the money) for dirt cheap insurance going 3-6 months out.
Regardless we will be fine. But I am feeling we will get a pretty good breather first no later than second quarter, but we will have one more nice year before we can really know which direction we are going.
The multiple expansion is getting way ahead of itself. No doubt. But there is no where else to put your money in this near zero interest rate environment. The Fed is going to move really really slow.
Is this a good long-term allocation? I've had about a 7.5% return this year.
I have 92.54% of my 401K in equity/stock.
VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX - Objective and Strategy: The investment seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of large-capitalization stocks. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index.
WADDELL AND REED CORE EQ CL 2 - Objective and Strategy: The investment objective of the Fund is to invest the portfolio in high quality companies with market capitalization generally in excess of $5 billion, with significant upside earnings power relative to market expectations.The selection process begins with a broad universe of all securities above $5 billion in market capitalization. Focus is then applied to companies that are believed to possess a 2-3 year earnings power significantly better than market expectations. Attractive stocks are identified when they have an earnings power story that is underappreciated and importantly have a strong competitive advantage which increases the probability that these forecasts can be achieved. The earnings catalyst can be either company specific or thematic.
I have 6.34% in BOND/FIXED INCOME,
METWEST TOTAL RETURN BOND FD D - Objective and Strategy: The Fund pursues its objective by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its net assets in investment grade fixed income securities or unrated securities that are determined by the Advisor to be of similar quality. Up to 20% of the Fund’s net assets may be invested in securities rated below investment grade. The Advisor will concentrate the Fund’s portfolio holdings in areas of the bond market (based on quality, sector, coupon or maturity) that the Advisor believes to be relatively undervalued.
Sand
Footballguy
You sure only 7.5%? That means the Waddell fund must have sucked badly as the vanguard fund should have done 10% at least.
As far as allocation it depends on your age. At 25 I'd say you're fine. If you're 50 I'd say you're a bit equity heavy.
siffoin
Footballguy
I think you need to have some portion of your portfolio dedicated to trying to hit home runs. Sure keeping within a few % pts of the benchmarked $SP500 is great...but to really get ahead you're going to need to hit a few homeruns over your investing life. Swinging for the fence means you will strike out too. Is what it is. I'm not suggesting a large portion of your portfolio should be dedicated to home run plays but definitely "a" portion.
That's my opinion - and I'm sticking to it!
That's my opinion - and I'm sticking to it!
Sand
Footballguy
Taleb follows this philosophy. I don't remember what his allocation to this is. What percent do you run with here?
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
Yeah, would love to hear a recommendation of how big a portion (obviously risk tolerance varies). I have my 401K equity heavy and tilted small cap but I am still fairly young.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just on a 401k level (not broker/investment accounts)... Hypothetically, you're able to get $25k a year into your 401k starting at around 25 years old - same mentality? I'm split 85-15 (stocks/bonds) right now and prob won't be changing that balance until I'm at least early-mid 40's with a target retirement age in my late 50's.
My thoughts are that I put enough into it to play aggressively and not worry about the big ups/downs while I'm still in my 30's.
Curious if you're still doing your piker account? The one that was $10k-$1MM - I remember looking at it and thinking it was kicking ###, can't find it now.
Todem
Footballguy
This is not going to end well.
Start building some cash and take some profits here folks.......first quarter we will have an inevitable 10% correction (easy IMO). The market is truly getting way ahead of itself right now.
And I am an eternal Bull as you all know. I am heavy in equties but have now started peeling back.
Now after today I am sitting in 25% cash. Been through this rodeo many times already.
Start building some cash and take some profits here folks.......first quarter we will have an inevitable 10% correction (easy IMO). The market is truly getting way ahead of itself right now.
And I am an eternal Bull as you all know. I am heavy in equties but have now started peeling back.
Now after today I am sitting in 25% cash. Been through this rodeo many times already.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
As I noted above and have mentioned numerous times, my personal feelings are to stay aggressive while young (certainly below 40) - sure, you might catch a walloping like 2008-2009, but with time on your side, it'll recover.
Everything I have ever read says trying to time the market is a losing strategy, sure some people have gotten lucky doing it, but the odds are not in your favor and you're prob best to just be aggressive until at least 10 years out from retirement... Just my .02.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
401k specifically (not broker/investment accounts), someone in their 30's - same advice or just ride the ups/downs?
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Todem
Footballguy
No....ride it. I am not touching my 401K and IRA money. Maybe you may consider moving 25% to a fixed rate account within the 401K to have some dry powder....to take advantage. But if you are contributing every month anyway...you are already getting a dollar cost average advantage.
I am just doing this in my taxable investment account where I own a large cap core equity portfolio of 40 individual stocks. I have had this (and have been regularly adding funds every year) portfolio since 1994.
I am 46.
I am just doing this in my taxable investment account where I own a large cap core equity portfolio of 40 individual stocks. I have had this (and have been regularly adding funds every year) portfolio since 1994.
I am 46.
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Todem
Footballguy
Agreed. I don't typically time the market persay. But I am not afraid to take good profits and take a breather with a portion of my portfolio when I truly feel from all my time and experience in the market things are getting way too frothy. I like to be able to pounce in panic sell off's and help add alpha to my portfolio buying things cheap.
Sand
Footballguy
I hear you. I have a buttload of CVX and it's exploding right now. My trigger finger is getting itchy.
On top of that have been at 10% cash for a while and can't really find a place to throw it in.
