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This market has at least another 10-15% in it. 2008-2009 is long forgotten about, we've got a Goldman guy in charge (he cares about us lol), deregulations coming, and a group of egomaniac Trump friends running the country. What could go wrong?

Peak to trough I'm calling 22,890 - 13,700 when the implosion hits.

Edited by fantasycurse42
The best thing we have going is that we've got some time to normalize rates so they can drop them when it does hit, but the Fed has to get moving now and hike at least quarterly.

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24 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

May the good times never end! ~Seabisquit

 

There's no quit in Sea Biscuit

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50 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

There's no quit in Sea Biscuit

That was from the movie.  They were having an opulent dinner and that was the toast. Next scene showed him in a shanty town huddled around a fire because of the stock market crash. Absolutely horrifying to me.  My Great Grandmother lived through the depression and I was fortunate enough to spend a lot of time with her and have her around until my mid-30's.  I learned first hand what it was like and as kid, in my early years, that grew up poor, vowed it would never happen to me. Not after all of my hard work to get me where I am. I'm not getting greedy here.

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When people get fearful, I get greedy; when people get greedy, I get fearful. A classic Buffet-ism. I am scared ###less. I'm doing everything I can to not sell everything in sight, but my will is cracking.

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11 minutes ago, pecorino said:

When people get fearful, I get greedy; when people get greedy, I get fearful. A classic Buffet-ism. I am scared ###less. I'm doing everything I can to not sell everything in sight, but my will is cracking.

Yep. As documented here, I sold a lot recently.  Wish I wouldn't have so early now but money is in the bank.

Edited by St. Louis Bob

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57 minutes ago, pecorino said:

When people get fearful, I get greedy; when people get greedy, I get fearful. A classic Buffet-ism. I am scared ###less. I'm doing everything I can to not sell everything in sight, but my will is cracking.

I'm sticking in until the business cycle cracks.  

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I am riding this charging bull through year end and then we will evaluate. I have such long term stock holdings (we are talking 25 plus years of positions in most of my personal portfolio).

 

However I have already begun to write covered calls on many positions as well as buying some married puts (17-20% out of the money) for dirt cheap insurance going 3-6 months out.

 

Regardless we will be fine. But I am feeling we will get a pretty good breather first no later than second quarter, but we will have one more nice year before we can really know which direction we are going.

 

The multiple expansion is getting way ahead of itself. No doubt. But there is no where else to put your money in this near zero interest rate environment. The Fed is going to move really really slow.

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Go OPK go.

Siffoin, if you're ever out in San Diego, make sure you DM me for free beer.  

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20 hours ago, Sand said:

Your port and mine aren't too dissimilar.  When you think about it, matching the S&P in a year when foreign is doing 4%, bonds 2%, emerging markets negative, etc. is pretty darn good.There is absolutely nothing wrong with that percentage on what is going to be a much lower beta portfolio than something in all stocks.

Personally I was absolutely trouncing the S&P, by 5% or so, before Trump landed in office.  The S&P has caught up, but I regret not at all having a portfolio that will drop much, much less than the S&P when it dives.

Is this a good long-term allocation? I've had about a 7.5% return this year.

I have 92.54% of my 401K in equity/stock. 

VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX -  Objective and Strategy: The investment seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of large-capitalization stocks. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index.

WADDELL AND REED CORE EQ CL 2 -  Objective and Strategy: The investment objective of the Fund is to invest the portfolio in high quality companies with market capitalization generally in excess of $5 billion, with significant upside earnings power relative to market expectations.The selection process begins with a broad universe of all securities above $5 billion in market capitalization. Focus is then applied to companies that are believed to possess a 2-3 year earnings power significantly better than market expectations. Attractive stocks are identified when they have an earnings power story that is underappreciated and importantly have a strong competitive advantage which increases the probability that these forecasts can be achieved. The earnings catalyst can be either company specific or thematic.

I have 6.34% in BOND/FIXED INCOME,

METWEST TOTAL RETURN BOND FD D -  Objective and Strategy: The Fund pursues its objective by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its net assets in investment grade fixed income securities or unrated securities that are determined by the Advisor to be of similar quality. Up to 20% of the Fund’s net assets may be invested in securities rated below investment grade. The Advisor will concentrate the Fund’s portfolio holdings in areas of the bond market (based on quality, sector, coupon or maturity) that the Advisor believes to be relatively undervalued.

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2 hours ago, cubd8 said:

Is this a good long-term allocation? I've had about a 7.5% return this year.

I have 92.54% of my 401K in equity/stock. 

VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX -  Objective and Strategy: The investment seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of large-capitalization stocks. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index.

WADDELL AND REED CORE EQ CL 2 -  Objective and Strategy: The investment objective of the Fund is to invest the portfolio in high quality companies with market capitalization generally in excess of $5 billion, with significant upside earnings power relative to market expectations.The selection process begins with a broad universe of all securities above $5 billion in market capitalization. Focus is then applied to companies that are believed to possess a 2-3 year earnings power significantly better than market expectations. Attractive stocks are identified when they have an earnings power story that is underappreciated and importantly have a strong competitive advantage which increases the probability that these forecasts can be achieved. The earnings catalyst can be either company specific or thematic.

I have 6.34% in BOND/FIXED INCOME,

METWEST TOTAL RETURN BOND FD D -  Objective and Strategy: The Fund pursues its objective by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its net assets in investment grade fixed income securities or unrated securities that are determined by the Advisor to be of similar quality. Up to 20% of the Fund’s net assets may be invested in securities rated below investment grade. The Advisor will concentrate the Fund’s portfolio holdings in areas of the bond market (based on quality, sector, coupon or maturity) that the Advisor believes to be relatively undervalued.

You sure only 7.5%?  That means the Waddell fund must have sucked badly as the vanguard fund should have done 10% at least.

As far as allocation it depends on your age.  At 25 I'd say you're fine.  If you're 50 I'd say you're a bit equity heavy.

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I think you need to have some portion of your portfolio dedicated to trying to hit home runs.  Sure keeping within a few % pts of the benchmarked $SP500 is great...but to really get ahead you're going to need to hit a few homeruns over your investing life.  Swinging for the fence means you will strike out too.  Is what it is.  I'm not suggesting a large portion of your portfolio should be dedicated to home run plays but definitely "a" portion.

That's my opinion - and I'm sticking to it!

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18 minutes ago, siffoin said:

I think you need to have some portion of your portfolio dedicated to trying to hit home runs.  Sure keeping within a few % pts of the benchmarked $SP500 is great...but to really get ahead you're going to need to hit a few homeruns over your investing life.  Swinging for the fence means you will strike out too.  Is what it is.  I'm not suggesting a large portion of your portfolio should be dedicated to home run plays but definitely "a" portion.

That's my opinion - and I'm sticking to it!

Taleb follows this philosophy.  I don't remember  what his allocation to  this is.  What  percent  do you  run  with  here?

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Yeah, would love to hear a recommendation of how big a portion (obviously risk tolerance varies). I have my 401K equity heavy and tilted small cap but I am still fairly young. 

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38 minutes ago, siffoin said:

I think you need to have some portion of your portfolio dedicated to trying to hit home runs.  Sure keeping within a few % pts of the benchmarked $SP500 is great...but to really get ahead you're going to need to hit a few homeruns over your investing life.  Swinging for the fence means you will strike out too.  Is what it is.  I'm not suggesting a large portion of your portfolio should be dedicated to home run plays but definitely "a" portion.

That's my opinion - and I'm sticking to it!

Ryan Howard swears by this.

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35 minutes ago, siffoin said:

I think you need to have some portion of your portfolio dedicated to trying to hit home runs.  Sure keeping within a few % pts of the benchmarked $SP500 is great...but to really get ahead you're going to need to hit a few homeruns over your investing life.  Swinging for the fence means you will strike out too.  Is what it is.  I'm not suggesting a large portion of your portfolio should be dedicated to home run plays but definitely "a" portion.

That's my opinion - and I'm sticking to it!

Just on a 401k level (not broker/investment accounts)... Hypothetically, you're able to get $25k a year into your 401k starting at around 25 years old - same mentality? I'm split 85-15 (stocks/bonds) right now and prob won't be changing that balance until I'm at least early-mid 40's with a target retirement age in my late 50's.

My thoughts are that I put enough into it to play aggressively and not worry about the big ups/downs while I'm still in my 30's.

Curious if you're still doing your piker account? The one that was $10k-$1MM - I remember looking at it and thinking it was kicking ###, can't find it now.

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This is not going to end well.

Start building some cash and take some profits here folks.......first quarter we will have an inevitable 10% correction (easy IMO). The market is truly getting way ahead of itself right now.

 

And I am an eternal Bull as you all know. I am heavy in equties but have now started peeling back.

 

Now after today I am sitting in 25% cash. Been through this rodeo many times already.

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3 minutes ago, Ted Mullins said:

Yeah, would love to hear a recommendation of how big a portion (obviously risk tolerance varies). I have my 401K equity heavy and tilted small cap but I am still fairly young. 

As I noted above and have mentioned numerous times, my personal feelings are to stay aggressive while young (certainly below 40) - sure, you might catch a walloping like 2008-2009, but with time on your side, it'll recover. 

Everything I have ever read says trying to time the market is a losing strategy, sure some people have gotten lucky doing it, but the odds are not in your favor and you're prob best to just be aggressive until at least 10 years out from retirement... Just my .02.

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2 minutes ago, Todem said:

This is not going to end well.

Start building some cash and take some profits here folks.......first quarter we will have an inevitable 10% correction (easy IMO). The market is truly getting way ahead of itself right now.

 

And I am an eternal Bull as you all know. I am heavy in equties but have now started peeling back.

 

Now after today I am sitting in 25% cash. Been through this rodeo many times already.

401k specifically (not broker/investment accounts), someone in their 30's - same advice or just ride the ups/downs?

Edited by fantasycurse42

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No....ride it. I am not touching my 401K and IRA money. Maybe you may consider moving 25% to a fixed rate account within the 401K to have some dry powder....to take advantage. But if you are contributing every month anyway...you are already getting a dollar cost average advantage.

I am just doing this in my taxable investment account where I own a large cap core equity portfolio of 40 individual stocks. I have had this (and have been regularly adding funds every year) portfolio since 1994. 

 

I am 46.

Edited by Todem

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6 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

As I noted above and have mentioned numerous times, my personal feelings are to stay aggressive while young (certainly below 40) - sure, you might catch a walloping like 2008-2009, but with time on your side, it'll recover. 

Everything I have ever read says trying to time the market is a losing strategy, sure some people have gotten lucky doing it, but the odds are not in your favor and you're prob best to just be aggressive until at least 10 years out from retirement... Just my .02.

Agreed. I don't typically time the market persay. But I am not afraid to take good profits and take a breather with a portion of my portfolio when I truly feel from all my time and experience in the market things are getting way too frothy. I like to be able to pounce in panic sell off's and help add alpha to my portfolio buying things cheap.

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32 minutes ago, Todem said:

 

Now after today I am sitting in 25% cash. Been through this rodeo many times already.

I hear you.  I have a buttload of CVX  and it's exploding right now.  My trigger finger is getting itchy.

On top of that have been at 10% cash for a while and can't really find a place to throw it in.  

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On 12/10/2016 at 8:03 AM, Todem said:

I am riding this charging bull through year end and then we will evaluate. I have such long term stock holdings (we are talking 25 plus years of positions in most of my personal portfolio).

 

However I have already begun to write covered calls on many positions as well as buying some married puts (17-20% out of the money) for dirt cheap insurance going 3-6 months out.

 

Regardless we will be fine. But I am feeling we will get a pretty good breather first no later than second quarter, but we will have one more nice year before we can really know which direction we are going.

 

The multiple expansion is getting way ahead of itself. No doubt. But there is no where else to put your money in this near zero interest rate environment. The Fed is going to move really really slow.

 

35 minutes ago, Todem said:

This is not going to end well.

Start building some cash and take some profits here folks.......first quarter we will have an inevitable 10% correction (easy IMO). The market is truly getting way ahead of itself right now.

 

And I am an eternal Bull as you all know. I am heavy in equties but have now started peeling back.

 

Now after today I am sitting in 25% cash. Been through this rodeo many times already.

What changed your mind?

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12 minutes ago, humpback said:

 

What changed your mind?

The valuations on industrial and transport stocks are stupid...the irrational exuberance has taken hold. At first the rally was simply a sector rotation, no new money was coming in. High quality was selling off and low quality was being bought.

 

Now everything is green. This is classic panic buying and dumb money has entered the market now IMO. People are in a frenzy because they are feeling like they missed it.

 

CAT - 55 times earnings. INSANE.

Edited by Todem

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10 minutes ago, Sand said:

Taleb follows this philosophy.  I don't remember  what his allocation to  this is.  What  percent  do you  run  with  here?

 

10 minutes ago, Sand said:

Taleb follows this philosophy.  I don't remember  what his allocation to  this is.  What  percent  do you  run  with  here?

Though you and I might have had our differences in the past - I think you do a remarkable job investing.  

In short - I think a minimum of 10% needs to be dedicated to home run plays.  If you are younger (than 50) and know what you are doing I might say 20%.  

I wouldn't suggest putting the entire "home-run allotment" amount into one stock or fund. A single stock will give you the biggest reward but offer the highest risk of a strike out.  Some strike outs basically go under.  I'd suggest finding "home run" focused ETFs that also have options available.

It's tough to invest or trade these on the basis of a "trend" too.  These days there is just too much volatility and whipsaws.  Rather I'd suggest some use of options in the plays - both for the initial purchase as well as managing the position.

On home run positions - I always have a target - and have no shame in taking profits.  On a double it isn't unusual for me to sell the position outright and evaluate from there.  I've often sold the entire position...and then come back at a later date and repurchased.  I'll give you some examples (and you guys can gasp): 

A lot is from memory so I may be off a little

In the fall of 2012, I purchased shares of $ACAD.  This is one of my best trades ever.  Purchase price was $1.80.  A few months later $ACAD was trading at $7+.  At that time we sold the entire position.  Took half the profits and purchased an equal amount of $10 calls.  Less than a year later we sold those calls when the share price was around $27.  It was a big win.

In 2013, we purchased shares of $DDD.  Purchase price was less than $30 and we wound up selling all those shares later that year for about $60. $DDD wound up going up towards $100...and when it began to fall in 2014...I repurchased shares for $47.28 (I know that because I own those shares today).  "Siff, you bull####ter, what about trend, what about stop losses?"  Very true.  In some ways - I felt protected on the position because we already had a double from the year before...and I felt I was holding $30 of profit in the bag.  Price kind of whipsawed for a while after this second purchase, I eventually I bought $40 puts when the trend confirmed bear.  The puts provided huge protection as $DDD essentially crashed.  The puts got closed out sometime last year I think at around $12 (it might have been $15).  My trade window shows a pretty big loss on those shares right now (more than $25k)...but I made approx $24k on the initial buy and sell and another $15k on the Puts.  So while $DDD is less than half of what I originally purchased it for in 2013 - overall it has been a winner and that is from managing the position and taking the profits on the initial run - staying true to the plan - and no regrets even when it ran far past the $60 where I initially sold it.  

My home run positions today are focused on "potential" 5->10->20 years out.   They are managed with options - meaning after the initial buy I will purchase puts to hedge in a bear trend and often sell puts to lower cost basis or add to the position in a bull trend.  The initial buy takes place as early as possible into a bull trend, with the hope that the initial run on that trend can turn the position into a risk-free one.  It takes work and a plan.  Even then your best managed position can become busted...and it has happened to me.

As most know I also trade the emini futs and use that as an aggressive home run part of my portfolio.  I used to be decent trading the futs.  I'm not sure why I'm not so good anymore.  My win rate is around 50% for the past year+.  There have been times in the past it was above 60%.  I know I've lost a lot of my nerve.  I also trade in small lots.  I also trade FOREX specifically the EUR:USD and the USD:CAD...I have a high win rate on the FOREX but the hours suck.

That's a long winded answer to give you 10%-20%.  You need enough allocated to the plays to make the home runs worth your Mai Tai while, but not enough that a run of losers means you work as a Walmart greeter when you're 70 years old.

 

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19 minutes ago, Todem said:

The valuations on industrial and transport stocks are stupid...the irrational exuberance has taken hold. At first the rally was simply a sector rotation, no new money was coming in. High quality was selling off and low quality was being bought.

 

Now everything is green. This is classic panic buying and dumb money has entered the market now IMO. People are in a frenzy because they are feeling like they missed it.

 

CAT - 55 times earnings. INSANE.

WE FINALLY AGREE ON SOMETHING.

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33 minutes ago, Todem said:

The valuations on industrial and transport stocks are stupid...the irrational exuberance has taken hold. At first the rally was simply a sector rotation, no new money was coming in. High quality was selling off and low quality was being bought.

 

Now everything is green. This is classic panic buying and dumb money has entered the market now IMO. People are in a frenzy because they are feeling like they missed it.

 

CAT - 55 times earnings. INSANE.

But on Saturday you said you're riding out this charging bull through the end of the year?

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1 hour ago, siffoin said:

 

Though you and I might have had our differences in the past - I think you do a remarkable job investing.  

Wow, that's quite the compliment!  I know we don't agree on a decent bit on how to go about investing, but I read everything you write as there are lots of ways to skin the cat and I learn something from just about every one of your posts.

In short - I think a minimum of 10% needs to be dedicated to home run plays.  If you are younger (than 50) and know what you are doing I might say 20%.  

I probably disagree here, :P    though there is good logic to support this.  

I wouldn't suggest putting the entire "home-run allotment" amount into one stock or fund. A single stock will give you the biggest reward but offer the highest risk of a strike out.  Some strike outs basically go under.  I'd suggest finding "home run" focused ETFs that also have options available.

At the biggest, IMO, a 5% rule should apply here.  I'd be nervous with anything greater, and personally I'd go smaller.

It's tough to invest or trade these on the basis of a "trend" too.  These days there is just too much volatility and whipsaws.  Rather I'd suggest some use of options in the plays - both for the initial purchase as well as managing the position.

I've been trying to pick macro trends and quality plays inside of that.  Shorter term trends are too tough with algorithm trading so prevalent now.  Got a decent sized chunk of VTR, for example, as the aging population will drive growth there.  If VTR keeps diving (dive, baby, dive!) I'll chunk in some more.   I also like DE, as farm needs will continue to expand.   

My home run positions today are focused on "potential" 5->10->20 years out.   

Good timeline, concur.

As most know I also trade the emini futs and use that as an aggressive home run part of my portfolio.  I used to be decent trading the futs.  I'm not sure why I'm not so good anymore.  My win rate is around 50% for the past year+.  There have been times in the past it was above 60%.  I know I've lost a lot of my nerve. 

My investment sphincter is much tighter now at these market levels and as I'm about 20% away from FU money.  I'm working extra hard to try and craft a portfolio that sheds market like returns with something that isn't as volatile as the market.  I've underperformed a tad in this raging bull, but generally overperform in choppy/down markets.  

That's a long winded answer to give you 10%-20%.  You need enough allocated to the plays to make the home runs worth your Mai Tai while, but not enough that a run of losers means you work as a Walmart greeter when you're 70 years old.

The whole point is to get to Mai Tais.  Or a Walmart greeter... on St. Barts.

 

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I've been reading up on OPK due to the Siff recommendation.....I am sure he is cringing right now as he reads this :)

Even though it has run up quite a bit lately, I think I'm going to dip my toes in the water. There is plenty to look forward to with this company - read up if you haven't already.

Effective this Monday 12/19, it will be part of the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI). Nice little bonus.

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16 hours ago, humpback said:

But on Saturday you said you're riding out this charging bull through the end of the year?

Jesus Christ man going to 25% cash is not getting out of the market.

 

sold some high multiple stocks for great profits and built some dry powder. Wrote some out of the money calls on others.

 

75% invested in my taxable account and 100% invested in my IRA/401K

 

 

Edited by Todem

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3 hours ago, Todem said:

Jesus Christ man going to 25% cash is not getting out of the market.

 

sold some high multiple stocks for great profits and built some dry powder. Wrote some out of the money calls on others.

 

75% invested in my taxable account and 100% invested in my IRA/401K

 

 

:lmao:

Sorry I asked if there was a reason you changed your mind. Now I remember why I stopped paying attention to your posts.

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59 minutes ago, humpback said:

:lmao:

Sorry I asked if there was a reason you changed your mind. Now I remember why I stopped paying attention to your posts.

I have posted those reasons. Learn to read.

 

And stop paying attention to me......please. I have no clue what I am doing. I only manage over 200 million in assets going on 20 years.

 

So what do I know.

Edited by Todem

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15 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

So Dow 20k after rate announcement? 

Sure why not? Pretty amazing.

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1 minute ago, Todem said:

Sure why not? Pretty amazing.

Wall Street has officially gone to plaid.

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4 minutes ago, Sand said:

Wall Street has officially gone to plaid.

Agreed. Way ahead of itself. 

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2 hours ago, Todem said:

I have posted those reasons. Learn to read.

 

And stop paying attention to me......please. I have no clue what I am doing. I only manage over 200 million in assets going on 20 years.

 

So what do I know.

:lmao:

You gave zero reasons for why you changed your mind, which was my question- on Saturday, you posted how you're riding out this raging bull until the end of the year and then you'll re-evaluate, and less than 2 trading days later you posted that you took money off the table and valuations are getting out of hand. I simply asked what had changed, because valuations didn't, so perhaps you did some more research/analysis in between that caused you to change your mind. You took it as an opportunity to act like a tool yet again, and here we are.

I know, you've told everyone that will listen that you're a real hot shot several times- me thinks it's compensating for something, but good luck to you. :bye:

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I'm looking for that combination sweet spot.  The market $ is a reflection of BOTH Value and Trend.  I've said numerous times - use fundamental analysis to determine WHAT to buy (or sell) and use technical analysis to tell you WHEN to buy (or sell) it.  Every decision one makes in the market is a "timing" decision.  You buy $XYZ today because you think it will be worth more tomorrow.  You sell $XYZ today because you think it will be cheaper tomorrow.

Let's say we all can agree with Sand and Totem - that the market is over-valued.  The question (to me) becomes when do I actually sell?  For the "WHEN" we're looking at Technicals.  To me, Technicals suggest that we have more upside left in this trend.  Now Technical Analysis of Trend is going to lag.  So it's possible that Today is the actual high and the "perfect" timing decision to exit.  The trend won't confirm that for some time... a number of days to a few weeks.  In a bearish trend more often than not there is opportunity to recognize the signal AND exit near the highs.  Most of the time the Trend suggest being fully long.  Other times it suggest being hedged or Flat.  In rare occasions it suggests being out of the market or short.  Individual stocks can be bearish in an overall market that is bullish.  Individual stocks can also be bullish in an overall market that is bearish.  Your best odds for success are to align your individual stocks with the larger market trend.

Now don't get me wrong.  This is a BS market and there will come a time when this humpty dumpty is going to fall.  But right now I think there is a bit more upside left- even though I think we're are at extreme levels of bullishness.

Here are a couple of charts from my twitter page.

First is a current chart showing times in the past couple of years when techncials called for "hedge"

Chart 1 

The second is a chart from 2007-2011 to see what technicals look like as a market rolled over from bull->bear->bull

Chart 2

Taking profits from huge wins and then waiting for a better opportunity is never a bad thing in any market either - which is what I think Todem and Sand are talking about.

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1 hour ago, humpback said:

:lmao:

You gave zero reasons for why you changed your mind, which was my question- on Saturday, you posted how you're riding out this raging bull until the end of the year and then you'll re-evaluate, and less than 2 trading days later you posted that you took money off the table and valuations are getting out of hand. I simply asked what had changed, because valuations didn't, so perhaps you did some more research/analysis in between that caused you to change your mind. You took it as an opportunity to act like a tool yet again, and here we are.

I know, you've told everyone that will listen that you're a real hot shot several times- me thinks it's compensating for something, but good luck to you. :bye:

Yep a hot shot.

 

You troll me continually......but we can end that. We simply should put each other on ignore. 

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52 minutes ago, siffoin said:

I'm looking for that combination sweet spot.  The market $ is a reflection of BOTH Value and Trend.  I've said numerous times - use fundamental analysis to determine WHAT to buy (or sell) and use technical analysis to tell you WHEN to buy (or sell) it.  Every decision one makes in the market is a "timing" decision.  You buy $XYZ today because you think it will be worth more tomorrow.  You sell $XYZ today because you think it will be cheaper tomorrow.

Let's say we all can agree with Sand and Totem - that the market is over-valued.  The question (to me) becomes when do I actually sell?  For the "WHEN" we're looking at Technicals.  To me, Technicals suggest that we have more upside left in this trend.  Now Technical Analysis of Trend is going to lag.  So it's possible that Today is the actual high and the "perfect" timing decision to exit.  The trend won't confirm that for some time... a number of days to a few weeks.  In a bearish trend more often than not there is opportunity to recognize the signal AND exit near the highs.  Most of the time the Trend suggest being fully long.  Other times it suggest being hedged or Flat.  In rare occasions it suggests being out of the market or short.  Individual stocks can be bearish in an overall market that is bullish.  Individual stocks can also be bullish in an overall market that is bearish.  Your best odds for success are to align your individual stocks with the larger market trend.

Now don't get me wrong.  This is a BS market and there will come a time when this humpty dumpty is going to fall.  But right now I think there is a bit more upside left- even though I think we're are at extreme levels of bullishness.

Here are a couple of charts from my twitter page.

First is a current chart showing times in the past couple of years when techncials called for "hedge"

Chart 1 

The second is a chart from 2007-2011 to see what technicals look like as a market rolled over from bull->bear->bull

Chart 2

Taking profits from huge wins and then waiting for a better opportunity is never a bad thing in any market either - which is what I think Todem and Sand are talking about.

I agree with you there is more upside left......I do think we very well may get a nice pause first quarter 2017 (7-15% range correction) hence why I want to have some dry powder and the reason I just built 25% cash in my all equity portfolio. 

 

Once we get that pause, breather, whatever we want to call it, I intend on deploying the 25% cash into high quality equites with growing and strong dividends and ride this for another year (2017). I have always maintained I am still bullish for 2017 but will do some serious fundamental evaluation come 3rd and 4th quarter of 2017.

Edited by Todem

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1 hour ago, siffoin said:

I'm looking for that combination sweet spot.  The market $ is a reflection of BOTH Value and Trend.  I've said numerous times - use fundamental analysis to determine WHAT to buy (or sell) and use technical analysis to tell you WHEN to buy (or sell) it.  Every decision one makes in the market is a "timing" decision.  You buy $XYZ today because you think it will be worth more tomorrow.  You sell $XYZ today because you think it will be cheaper tomorrow.

Let's say we all can agree with Sand and Totem - that the market is over-valued.  The question (to me) becomes when do I actually sell?  For the "WHEN" we're looking at Technicals.  To me, Technicals suggest that we have more upside left in this trend.  Now Technical Analysis of Trend is going to lag.  So it's possible that Today is the actual high and the "perfect" timing decision to exit.  The trend won't confirm that for some time... a number of days to a few weeks.  In a bearish trend more often than not there is opportunity to recognize the signal AND exit near the highs.  Most of the time the Trend suggest being fully long.  Other times it suggest being hedged or Flat.  In rare occasions it suggests being out of the market or short.  Individual stocks can be bearish in an overall market that is bullish.  Individual stocks can also be bullish in an overall market that is bearish.  Your best odds for success are to align your individual stocks with the larger market trend.

Now don't get me wrong.  This is a BS market and there will come a time when this humpty dumpty is going to fall.  But right now I think there is a bit more upside left- even though I think we're are at extreme levels of bullishness.

Here are a couple of charts from my twitter page.

First is a current chart showing times in the past couple of years when techncials called for "hedge"

Chart 1 

The second is a chart from 2007-2011 to see what technicals look like as a market rolled over from bull->bear->bull

Chart 2

Taking profits from huge wins and then waiting for a better opportunity is never a bad thing in any market either - which is what I think Todem and Sand are talking about.

I'm trying to follow you here- aren't you essentially saying that you really only use technical analysis? For instance, you wouldn't ignore the technicals if your fundamentals gave you a different picture, correct?

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4 minutes ago, humpback said:

I'm trying to follow you here- aren't you essentially saying that you really only use technical analysis? For instance, you wouldn't ignore the technicals if your fundamentals gave you a different picture, correct?

A lot of you think I'm a permabear...which I'm not.  Often you guys are buying $XYZ when it is in a significant bear trend...and I'm saying it's a bad buy".  And I mean right now - WAIT.

I'm a TREND trader.  So to me technical analysis is most important.  That doesn't gel with what Wall Street is going to tell you.  I think "fundamentals" can be exaggerated and are almost always slanted to the bullish side.  Technicals don't lie...price don't lie. 

I think it is possible to recognize opportunity in every market.  To be only a buy and hold bull is dangerous.  You have to prepare to take action in a downmarket.  If you really want to get ahead you have to be able to outperform the SP500 over time.  That's why you want to try to hit some home runs in a bull market.  That's why you want to hedge or go to cash in a bear market. $1000 invested at the market peak in 2000 with dividends reinvested would be worth about $2000 today.  However when adjusted for inflation only about $1400.  Getting 7%+  after year is completely unrealistic with a buy and hold strategy.   Granted buy and hold looks great at all time highs.  But when the next bear comes and your portfolio loses 40%...it is going to take YEARS to get back to where you were at those highs...and time is what works against you in your investing lifetime.

That's what I think, and I'm sticking with it.

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7 minutes ago, siffoin said:

A lot of you think I'm a permabear...which I'm not.  Often you guys are buying $XYZ when it is in a significant bear trend...and I'm saying it's a bad buy".  And I mean right now - WAIT.

I'm a TREND trader.  So to me technical analysis is most important.  That doesn't gel with what Wall Street is going to tell you.  I think "fundamentals" can be exaggerated and are almost always slanted to the bullish side.  Technicals don't lie...price don't lie. 

I think it is possible to recognize opportunity in every market.  To be only a buy and hold bull is dangerous.  You have to prepare to take action in a downmarket.  If you really want to get ahead you have to be able to outperform the SP500 over time.  That's why you want to try to hit some home runs in a bull market.  That's why you want to hedge or go to cash in a bear market. $1000 invested at the market peak in 2000 with dividends reinvested would be worth about $2000 today.  However when adjusted for inflation only about $1400.  Getting 7%+  after year is completely unrealistic with a buy and hold strategy.   Granted buy and hold looks great at all time highs.  But when the next bear comes and your portfolio loses 40%...it is going to take YEARS to get back to where you were at those highs...and time is what works against you in your investing lifetime.

That's what I think, and I'm sticking with it.

Me too. to just sit pat with your 401k thru a bear market (recession) is nuts. Get out when it comes and you will know it's coming. There are always signs.

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24 minutes ago, siffoin said:

A lot of you think I'm a permabear...which I'm not.  Often you guys are buying $XYZ when it is in a significant bear trend...and I'm saying it's a bad buy".  And I mean right now - WAIT.

I'm a TREND trader.  So to me technical analysis is most important.  That doesn't gel with what Wall Street is going to tell you.  I think "fundamentals" can be exaggerated and are almost always slanted to the bullish side.  Technicals don't lie...price don't lie. 

I think it is possible to recognize opportunity in every market.  To be only a buy and hold bull is dangerous.  You have to prepare to take action in a downmarket.  If you really want to get ahead you have to be able to outperform the SP500 over time.  That's why you want to try to hit some home runs in a bull market.  That's why you want to hedge or go to cash in a bear market. $1000 invested at the market peak in 2000 with dividends reinvested would be worth about $2000 today.  However when adjusted for inflation only about $1400.  Getting 7%+  after year is completely unrealistic with a buy and hold strategy.   Granted buy and hold looks great at all time highs.  But when the next bear comes and your portfolio loses 40%...it is going to take YEARS to get back to where you were at those highs...and time is what works against you in your investing lifetime.

That's what I think, and I'm sticking with it.

I agree with most of this, and I think the market is overvalued as well (I've believed that for a while), just trying to decipher your last post. You wrote "use fundamental analysis to determine WHAT to buy (or sell) and technical analysis to determine WHEN to buy (or sell) it"- if your chart says buy, you buy, regardless of the fundamentals. So you'll never buy stocks you feel are cheap if the chart and/or market is neutral? Etc.

The difficulty with technicals/price is that while it's true they don't lie, they can and often do change rapidly, which is one reason why many people end up worse off trying to time the market. Also, there are many opinions on what indicators/parameters/time frames are important when determining the "trend"- are the charts you posted the ones you've been using for a long time?

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A lot of times someone will ask (or post) they're buying $XZY.  I'll give them my opinion based on what the charts say- Not doing a complete analysis of fundamentals + technicals.

Speaking personally...I don't do scans that look for new trends and then just buy and sell those solely off that scan.  I tend to pick stocks or sectors that I think I know something about or have a personal interest in.  I'm not buying everything willy nilly based on a chart and nothing else.  If I think a stock is cheap - it goes on a watch list.  I'm looking at 3 different time frames - 60m; 1 day; 1 week.  Daily being most important for decisions.

As the stock begin to turn from a bear trend into a bull trend...what I do is this:

1) Wait for confirmation on daily chart from Bear Trend to Bull Trend.

2) Wait for a short term sell off on a 60m chart. 

3) Take an initial position when that 60m chart turns from Bear to Bull - assuming the Daily (new) Bull Trend is still intact. 

The early part of a trend is the most dangerous as there is a fight between the bulls and bears. There is a bit of goldylocks here, as you want to give your position enough room to overcome a whipsaw.  I don't use any kind of hard stop - like sell if the position loses 10%.  Rather I'm looking at places of support...and then I look at a "stop zone".  While I think it critical to have a plan...I also think it's important to have some flexibility.  The only time I have hard stops are when I day trade the futs.

Timing isn't perfect.  Hindsight is.  A lot of times the hedge doesn't work and you would have been better off just holding.  The 2014-Present chart is a good example.  But in that moment...the charts were saying the major trend was vulnerable.  I worry in times like that.  Let me put it to you  like this.  I live in Idaho.  We have a very active wildfire season here from June-September.  Let's say I had a rural cabin and not only could I chose to buy fire insurance, I could chose when to buy it.  So recognizing my cabin is at times vulnerable to being destroyed by wildfire...I buy fire insurance each June-September.  Am I being stupid if there isn't a fire and my cabin doesn't burn down?

In regards to the charts.  Pretty much I use the same indicators I have used for years.  There have been very minimal changes.  When you get right down to it - all I'm trying to do is determine if price is generally moving up or is it generally moving down.  We make it harder than it should be--let me rephrase that - I make it harder than it should be.

The charts I post on twitter are more "general" and for the public.  The longer a trend is intact the wider time frame is needed to fully understand it.  So back in 2010...the most important trend was a daily trend.  But now 7+ years out the weekly time frame is most important.  With that said - most of my personal investing decisions are based off a daily chart- with an eye on the weekly.  As a result, I look for places of support to add to existing positions or take on new positions so as to align with the overall weekly trend.  I can react quicker.  But a "buy and holder" certainly can have a simple set of tools to determine the weekly trend and adjust his portfolio accordingly.  Zero percent interest rates and central bank easing is responsible for a lot of the current bull market run.  Can that supply a floor for the market on the next down turn?  Is it possible that the next bear market takes much longer to recover to today's highs.  Like I said - time is your enemy in the long run.

So to be crystal clear.

  1. I think this market is bull####
  2. I think this market is overvalued
  3. Even though I believe 1 & 2...I think the trend of the current market is strongly bullish
  4. Recognizing the strong bull trend, today I'm more likely to add to a position or take on a new position than close or short.
  5. Finally - I recognize that I might be wrong. And I'm open to change my opinion as market conditions change.

I think I've posted more here in the past 6 days than I have in the past 6 months.  It's been fun.  You guys keep me on my toes, and I hope you all have a very Happy Holiday and a Great New Year!

side note: As you may know I own an ice cream business.  Our reason to start it was to help people with barriers to employment.  In your community there are  people who struggle.  There are people who deserve our love and compassion. We judge too easily.  If you are here, and reading this thread.  You are the lucky one.  A simple act of kindness can go a long way to changing someones life for the better.  I pray that opportunity will find you this season and you will take advantage of it.

GOOD LUCK!

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Closed out my UVXY hedge with a 40% loss, but only had a couple hundred shares I bought the day after the election. 

On a whim (sorry for technical language) I bought 1000 shares of DRYS @ 5.34

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With all the headiness pretty much everywhere only a couple corners of the market are seeing value.  Right now these are the interest rate sensitive areas.  REITS, utilities, preferreds, mREITs, etc.  I have spent the evening casting around and seeing if there is anything I really like.  So far I've found utilities are just cooling off and aren't really a value yet - have XLU on alert if the sector keeps diving.  Some preferreds are looking quite good - NLY ones look juicy (if they hit 23.5 I'm buying).  Lots of the PSA ones are back to par (bulletproof income there) - too low a coupon for me, though.  Looking longingly at CNTHP - absolutely bulletproof and on the cusp of a coupon I'll take (coming back toward par, too).  

For pure equities I'm loving the drop in O.  If it hits 52 I'm backing up the truck.  VTR (talked about this earlier) - looking for 55.  DLR - 94.   Getting an itchy trigger finger over the sell button on CVX - own a ridiculous amount of this and am very ambivalent on what's happening there.  Overheated but may be hitting a nice secular bull for energy.

Not seeing any buys yet, but these are definitely coming back down to earth.  A small taper tantrum about now would be cool.  Not sure why I'm writing this - just casting around.  

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Hello from Christmas past! 

Hope everyone's trading has been good.   I received a letter in the mail regarding FEED settlement.  Anyone else? What are we doing? 

I haven't looked up my beloved HEB in many years but it looks to be back down to where we started ahahah.

 

Just to jump back in.   DIS chart seems to have the 50 day and 200 day moving average about to cross.   Any thoughts?  Are all the moving averages bunk since everything just seems to be going up? 

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