Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Yeah I hear you. I own 4000 shares though so .12 is an extra $480.00.
I see. New plan. I'm going to go buy as many shares as I can. Free $.12!!!!This is going to be so much more profitable than investing in mini frozen waffles.
Up 20% so far today. Nice little pop.Insiders gobbling up PLG.
There was an article on it on MarketWatchNice move up. Are bunch of insiders are buying? How can you tell?Insiders gobbling up PLG.
You buy any last Friday?
No. I have been holding quite a bit for a while. So I'm just trying to get back to even!There was an article on it on MarketWatchNice move up. Are bunch of insiders are buying? How can you tell?Insiders gobbling up PLG.
Grabbed some at $.89 to average down. Trying to figure out if this has legs or not. I assume it's a combination of their being on the verge of profitability, along with Anglo American's announcement pushing platinum back above gold.No. I have been holding quite a bit for a while. So I'm just trying to get back to even!There was an article on it on MarketWatchNice move up. Are bunch of insiders are buying? How can you tell?Insiders gobbling up PLG.
I wish I would've too - but all my available money in that account was locked up in AAPL. :(Grabbed some at $.89 to average down. Trying to figure out if this has legs or not. I assume it's a combination of their being on the verge of profitability, along with Anglo American's announcement pushing platinum back above gold.No. I have been holding quite a bit for a while. So I'm just trying to get back to even!There was an article on it on MarketWatchNice move up. Are bunch of insiders are buying? How can you tell?Insiders gobbling up PLG.
It seems to me the biggest issues facing Apple's stock right now are the expectations they've established for destroying estimates and the need to prove innovation and ability to hold off the pack without Jobs. Even IF the stock's undervalued right now, I think it's likely there's some downward pressure until they either show that they can once again blow away expectations OR show that they're capable of something newsworthy in the post-Jobs era. Either would give it a push imo. My assumption right now is that that means AppleTV needs to be more than just a TBD. There may be enough sentiment for the brand that it doesn't even need to be a game-changer to get a short-term pop from it, though I think the health of the stock in the intermediate-term may be determined by how innovative it really is.
I agree, the expectations got so out of whack last year that it made it impossible for Apple to exceed them. Everyone was talking about 50+ billion EPS on the year and the 1 trillion market cap.They won't be increasing 20%+ YOY anymore, that would be close to impossible due to their size and the competition in the tech arena, but even if they just kept earning 40+ billion a year that would be good. The question is can they keep earning 40+ billion a year over the next 5-10 years. Unless they create another game changer i doubt it.This year the catalysts are China Mobil and a TV, outside of that just throwing out upgrades to their existing product line just isn't going to cut it. They were way ahead of the competition in the mobile phone arena from 2008-2011, but that gap has closed.
I'll speak to a couple of things on AAPL. But hey...I think I posted that Bubble Chart once too.It would be a mistake to assume that a technical trader like me doesn't use fundamental analysis in the evaluation of buys and sells. Fundamentals are critical. Fundamentals are the tool to tell you WHAT to buy (or sell). But IMO: technical analysis is also critical. Technicals are the tool to tell you WHEN to buy (or sell).Get this in your head.USE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS TO TELL YOU WHAT TO BUY AND USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TO TELL YOU WHEN TO BUY IT.The problem with "advisers" is that they always want to take the "long term" view. As my background is in sport/performance psychology I can tell you that performance suffers when ones mindset is focused on the past or in the future. High performers focus in the here and now. Displaced focus leads to emotion, and emotion leads to lack of control. Being overly emotional and having a lack of control will result in poor performance of your portfolio. You want better results...focus in the here and now. THATS what a chart gives you...a clear picture of the here and now. Why do I focus so much on trends? Because they give a clear picture of what the price is actually doing. Is price (in general) moving up or is price (in general) moving down? Simple trading in the here and now without emotion in total control...all you do is place your bets in the direction price is generally moving. I don't get why this concept seems so foreign and disdained. To me it is logical and practical.So let's talk about AAPL. Fundamentally, I can agree that sub $500 it is undervalued. That makes AAPL a stock that I would want to own. But technically it is bearish and has been since early October. This is where the technical analysis comes into play. I have a stock that I consider undervalued, but in the here and now its price is generally moving down. No need to get emotional..no need to justify why I must buy it here. I can be patient, and wait for the bearish technicals to resolve. And as the bear trend moves through time many of the fundamental questions being asked will resolve as well...giving me a clearer picture of the fundamentals of the stock from the now as well as into the future. Calm and clear-headed is a better spot to be when managing your portfolio.Because AAPL tends to have big swings both up and down an investor would do quite well with this approach. No need for fancy option plays, writing puts or covered calls. Just buy APPL when the trend is bullish and close out that position when the trend turns bearish. Rinse and repeat. Here's a chart of how such an approach would have done over the past year.AAPL Trend 2012-PresentThe combination of both fundamental analysis AND technical analysis is the best approach to capitalizing on opportunity at the most opportune times, and goes hand in hand with my concept of: buy the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors in the early stages of every bull market. Doing so should not only outperform the SP500, but also gives you a better chance to exit when the market inevitably turns bearish.Because I don't know the future, I don't try to pick exact tops and bottoms of markets or a stock. It is possible the bottom for AAPL is right here. I'll give up a little upside for the greater probability of a successful investment. The fools errand is not market timing (recognizing trends)...it's being unwilling to accept the truth of the here and now, and relying on hope for a better tomorrow as the salve for today's wounds.
Dear Ross Perot,I don't think any of us have anything against your charts. Wait, Smoo would object to my liberally speaking for him, as well as others who aren't me. I, personally, don't have anything against your charts. I, in fact, happen to like your charts. They frighten, confuse, intrigue, and occasionally titillate me. Where, however, can I learn to evaluate said charts for individual stocks so I can determine what constitutes buy- and sell-worthy trends? 'Cause using a chart from a position of ignorance does no more for me than throwing a dart or exchanging posts with Oregonian albinos on a message board.
That was itriple. Who has had some great calls over the past couple of years.
This question has been asked multiple times. So let me answer it again.Have you read the article titled: "A Guide to Steelhedge's Indicators- An Introduction to Chart Reading"? It can be found here:Guide to SH IndicatorsSo are you saying you read that and still don't understand? And if so why not email me a question directly, so that I can answer your specific question?Now perhaps you want to understand how to TRUST my charts, because at the end of the day...they look nice and pretty, but perhaps you think I'm in someway manipulating them to fit my particular point of view and do that from the benefit of hindsight. That's fair. But I do post pictures of these charts pretty much every single week. A chart of AAPL has been posted regularly since Mid-October when it was at $600 (give or take), and the chart hasn't changed one bit since then- except move through price and time. But the reality being that technical investment decisions are made at the right hand of a chart...thus the future is unknown. But I TRUST because the results of the technical analysis has PROVEN time and again to be valid and profitable. I've shown it in real time and through time over and over right here for 5+ years. That's not to say every decision made from technical analysis will be a winner. Because the future is unknown, no form of technical analysis or fundamental analysis is correct 100% of the time. I admit sometimes I lose...sometimes my analysis is wrong. We're always sailing into the unknown. I think it's better to have a compass or gps, rather than sail at the whims of the wind and currents. Technical analysis provides that compass. It is a picture that says a lot about what is happening in the here and now. It is a vivid representation of the direction the stock is sailing and is far more accurate than the speculation from "fundamentals" for an unknown future.Now you might be saying. "Where do I learn technical analysis for myself"? That too is a fair question. The answer is: how much time and effort do you really want to put into the mastery of the skill. After 100 hours you might have a good knowledge of basic indicators and how they perform. After 1000 hours you might have a good understanding of the type of technical analysis that best suit you and your investing style. After 10000 hours you might have the ability to hone a set of indicators that you trust and consistently outperform expectations. After 20000 hours you will have Mastery (give or take a few hundred hours). You get what I'm saying here? There is no quick route to Mastery of any skill. If you want to learn on your own...take the first step...get a book...ask questions, google. The questions you guys have asked me over the years, honestly have made me better at what I do. When I was a sport psychologist one question I'd ask an athlete is: "What % of your game do you consider mental?" The answer would typically range from 50%-99%. I'd then ask: "how much time do you spend working on the mental part of your game?" The answer would most often be "0%". The same can be said for your investments. If trend is the here and now likely direction of your stock...what % of your time do you spend studying the factors that affect the trend?The jist of my post wasn't to link a pretty ugly picture of AAPL's trend. Rather it was to suggest that you look hard into combining technical analysis with fundamental analysis for every position you take. One form of the analysis provides the WHAT...the other provides the WHEN. Otherwise that GIANT SUCKING SOUND YOU HEAR will be money flowing out of your portfolio. Is that what you want?
It seems you're somewhat using the benefit of hindsight to draw the vertical lines between bull and bear trends on this chart. For example, why wouldn't I sell around the end of July when it looks like it's turning bearish? Why wouldn't I buy in the second half of November when it looks like it's turning bullish? In retrospect you can see that those trends didn't materialize, but I wouldn't have known that when deciding what to do at those times.
Such situations as you describe are quite common. I call them Trends in "Conflict" on my blog.There are 2 MAIN drivers to how I analyze a trend. The 1st indicator is the SH Trender which paints the price bar red (if trend= bears) or green (if trend=bullish). The SH Trender also includes moving support/resistance lines. The second main indicator is called the ToG. It is the histogram at the bottom of a chart. A Trend is bullish when the ToG is positive, and bearish when the ToG is negative. The ToG IS THE PRIMARY INDICATOR AND ANY ACTION ON A POSITION MUST BE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ToG. What happened with AAPL in late July and in late Nov is a trend in conflict. In the case of the July conflict we'd have maintained the bullish position because the ToG remained positive. In the case of the Nov conflict we'd have stayed bearish because the ToG is negative. The alignment of the ToG is quite clear on the linked chart throughout the year.The ToG was developed specifically to prevent the whipsaw type of trade you see in those specific situations you are asking about. That is why it is such a powerful indicator...it keeps you on the correct side of the trade until the trend is fully exhausted.It is also important to note that when a position you hold's trend is in conflict you need to pay greater attention because the chance for a confirmed change in trend is high. Most change in trends begin with the Sh Trender and ToG in conflict. It is rare when both indicators flip on the very same day. When they do...those are typically the best winners I get.As for the indictment that I'm using hindsight to draw the charts. Please feel free to go back and read the blog. Charts have been posted almost every week since early Oct. You'll see that I'm not trying to promote any side of the market...just providing a picture of the here and now...some times confirmed bullish; sometimes confirmed bearish; sometimes trends in conflict. This blog post may be of particular benefit to you in describing the concept of trends in conflict.Steelhedge Dec 8, 2012
Gotcha. So to make sure I understand, you don't act until both the SH Trender and the ToG actually flip, correct? At those two points I mentioned, the SH Trender had already flipped, and the ToG hadn't yet but was closing in on zero and looking like it might flip, which is why I guessed I might've made a move at those times, anticipating a change in the trend. But that's not how I should use your charts, and instead only make a move once it actually crosses over from positive to negative or vice versa, yes? Sorry if these are dumb questions, but this is the first I've read your blog and I'm interested in learning more. Do you go into detail anywhere about exactly what these things like SH Trender and ToG are actually measuring, or is that your proprietary info?'siffoin said:
Didn't mean for it to be an indictment, I'm just trying to understand your charts and how I'd use them. Now that I understand that you wouldn't advise making a trade until a trend has been confirmed by both indicators, I see that I wouldn't have made trades at those times I mentioned.
You have these along with ONVO which Siff tweeted about Friday and today. What gives with this 3D printing?'Mystery Achiever said:
Sorry you missed. I was able to close out my trade in the morning, so was absolutely sure there would be a huge upside surprise.
Man, I know how that goes. Really tempted to go start going all in. Falling knife anyone?Anyhow bought yesterday:
Needs some editing GB.ETAHow do you subscribe?
First of all. I think you guys have the incorrect impression of how I operate. While I'm willing to take on risk...I actually practice correct risk management- in that I align my positions with the direction price is generally moving. Disciplined on entries and exits. I take profits when the trend is exhausted, and am not afraid to take a loss or close a position when my opinion proves wrong. I want to be bullish when the market is bullish and I want to be bearish when the market is bearish. With that said. I DO NOT short stocks.* I wouldn't suggest a short of AAPL. Remember the overall market is bullish. The money to be made is long...investing in the strongest stocks and strongest sectors. Ideally this would have been done on the PI turn- as most gains are made by entering at the early stage of a new bull market trend. At this point the strongest stocks and sectors are up 10%+ since the PI flip. My opinion is that this Bull Trend will continue for the foreseeable future...putting money to work at this point will require much more vigilance and discipline and carry a higher level of risk for a smaller percentage of gain. In addition I'd have had you sell AAPL back in October at around $650- when the daily trend confirmed bear as that would have presented the greatest level of profit with the least amount of risk. As that trend is now 3+ months along and $200+ down from that initial signal- selling here means less profits (obviously) and a greater chance that when the AAPL trend flips to a bull a new long entry will not be far from the price point we're at today. What I'm saying is a trend investor must make his moves early in the trend as part of the discipline process. When that step is ignored it is difficult to provide good guidance as to what is the best move.I'm sorry that the blog post needs editing. But if you think it's bad now, you should have seen it last night. Remember I'm a one man show and my native language isn't English...it's Western Frontier. I do try to be straight forward with the charts. I know I spent a lot of time analyzing AAPL, but did so because it is such a part of the market conversation right now.* I short the general market when the PI is bearish using emini futures contracts on the major market indexes. Eminis act as both a hedge and portfolio accelerator. I also take a position in emini futures contracts in bull markets by taking long positions. While the % of my portfolio invested in eminis is less than 20%...the profits they provide make up the majority of all gains.
First, I'm not trying to correct grammar, this line "You know what we got here? A good ole fashioned Bull Market. YEE HA!" is repeated twice. Pretty sure you didn't mean to do that.I know exactly how you operate and I agree with you which is why I plan on selling AAPL.
I wasn't sure where you were on shorting but you make a lot of sense. Thanks for the reply, I appreciate it.
I bought some SSYS today. SO probably too early.
** 3D SYSTEMS CORP, $63.74, down 8 pct (1017 ET)** STRATASYS, $80.86, down 7 pct (1017 ET)** PROTO LABS INC, $41.26, down 4 pctIndustrial 3D printer maker ExOne announcing details for an IPO put stocks of 3D printers makers on watch, according to StreetInsider.com."This is noise. I've never heard of ExOne until they filed. They did $15 million in sales in 2011 and roughly $22 million in 2012," Piper Jaffray analyst Troy Jensen told Reuters.
To see you do that really scares the crap out of me as a guy still holding the bag at a much bigger loss than you just swallowed. :(
Carter Worth (chart guy from Oppenheimer)thinks it has intermediate term rebound potential, saying it round-- tripped from where it was a year ago, calling that cathartic. Mentioned a possible target of 550 in three or four months.
Cant remember the last time a stock was down 6% in the day, and up 10% after hours.
Ouch.
