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Stock Thread (10 Viewers)

PEATF :lmao:

I was originally going to buy 22,501 shares, just to have one more than GM as shtick... I thought long and hard about it and decided this shtick was only worth lighting $500 on fire, oops :kicksrock:

 
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The Big Guy said:
For the Colbalt folks in here.  Not sure if this presents a problem for the future or talks about the promise of things.

Cnet story
Click to expand...
No doubt about it, the end users are spooked.  Apple is just the latest to come to the table asking for a long term supply contract.  Volkswagen had the audscity to ask for a 5 year contract at a fixed price well under current prices. They were heckled out of all the rooms.  There will be long term deals, but pricing will be variable and will favor the producers and not the end users.  For once, Apple will have to be on its knees.  

One other note left unsaid is the fact that much like the Rare Earth situation, China controls a great deal of the global processing of cobalt, so once again, they may be the author of higher prices.  Last time they told the world, "You want rare earths?  No problem, come here, build a factory, hire our people and let us steal your technology.  Or, we will export to you with gigantic tarrifs".  However, after prices went up dramatically, they collapsed just as fast because Rare Earths aren't rare at all and China had some other problems forcing them to soften their stance.  

But cobalt isn't mined in China the way REE are.  If you had a shovel inside of China you could be a miner of REE. China just has the lead over all of us by being inside of the Congo and running many of the collection centers where it then ships material back and processes it before sending it to Japan and Korea where batteries are largely made.  

Stay tuned.....

 
General Malaise said:
One other note left unsaid is the fact that much like the Rare Earth situation, China controls a great deal of the global processing of cobalt, so once again, they may be the author of higher prices.  Last time they told the world, "You want rare earths?  No problem, come here, build a factory, hire our people and let us steal your technology.  Or, we will export to you with gigantic tarrifs".  However, after prices went up dramatically, they collapsed just as fast because Rare Earths aren't rare at all and China had some other problems forcing them to soften their stance.  
Click to expand...
One of them being horrific pollution.  They were the low price leader for a while because they had no qualms about just dumping effluent everywhere.  Not sure the situation now.

 
Has anyone sent them a fax to see if they plan on reporting their balance sheet for the 3Q, or 4Q for that matter?

 
Anyone know a tool that tracks the percentage of companies that are green or red after earnings release?  Not a particular company, but more of a cumulative total.  

Owens Corning beat on top and bottom, shows growth, optimistic guidance, goes down 4.5% when the market is up 100 points.  Frustrating...

 
tommyGunZ said:
So what cobalt companies are folks in here riding?  I'd like to jump on board.

Glencore? Freeport?  China Moly?  
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I wish I would have never sold Freeport, $FCX.  I bought in single digits and rode it all the way down and then sold around $12.  They own a ton of valuable assets.  They got themselves in trouble financially getting into oil and other expenditures but seemed to have gotten out of it.  

 
tommyGunZ said:
So what cobalt companies are folks in here riding?  I'd like to jump on board.

Glencore? Freeport?  China Moly?  
Click to expand...
Problem with those is they aren't pure cobalt plays.  Glencore, for example, has a small portion of their revenue driven by cobalt because cobalt is a by-product metal of their larger cooper mining operations.  

If you want a pure play to cobalt, buy Cobalt 27, which owns, warehouses and insures 2,989.2 metric tonnes of physical, battery grade cobalt.  To put that in perspective, your US Gov has a stockpile of roughly 300 MT and has done nothing to increase its supply, despite growing concerns that this metal - essential to aerospace as a superalloy, and thus, the military - has reached a critical level of supply/demand.  It currently trades at a 25% premium to NAV, but we think they are sitting on a pile of cash that they will use to secure a cobalt stream from a producer who could use the infusion of cash.  

 
General Malaise said:
Problem with those is they aren't pure cobalt plays.  Glencore, for example, has a small portion of their revenue driven by cobalt because cobalt is a by-product metal of their larger cooper mining operations.  

If you want a pure play to cobalt, buy Cobalt 27, which owns, warehouses and insures 2,989.2 metric tonnes of physical, battery grade cobalt.  To put that in perspective, your US Gov has a stockpile of roughly 300 MT and has done nothing to increase its supply, despite growing concerns that this metal - essential to aerospace as a superalloy, and thus, the military - has reached a critical level of supply/demand.  It currently trades at a 25% premium to NAV, but we think they are sitting on a pile of cash that they will use to secure a cobalt stream from a producer who could use the infusion of cash.  
Click to expand...
+7.924% - why didn't you put me on these guys yesterday, #####???  :)   

Thanks bud.  

 
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General Malaise said:
Just sold half my position in Amaya.  It was quite a run, but I need the cash for Friday's Cobalt 27 IPO.  I kind of agree that the world is overdue for a correction, but I'm jumping all in on this because I believe cobalt prices are heading higher.  If they do, this stock will rise with it.  Cobalt today is $28ish a pound.  In a year, I think it's $50ish.  I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities that it hits $100 one day soon.  Even if the markets poop the bed.
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Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet, @tommyGunZ, where you been, broheme?  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
PEATF :lmao:

I was originally going to buy 22,501 shares, just to have one more than GM as shtick... I thought long and hard about it and decided this shtick was only worth lighting $500 on fire, oops :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
At least you didn't sell 10k shares at .145 :bag:  I'm still hoping dilution makes it possible to get back in at that price or lower. This was the risk I was taking, now have to pay the consequence.

 
$75MM lot on the ask at $1,500 for AMZN :lmao:

Looks like a real order, don't think it's a spoof.

Have to imagine a bunch of short stops are hiding behind that wall too... If we could take that out, could see another $10 bucks pretty easily. 

 
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dschuler said:
I wish I would have never sold Freeport, $FCX.  I bought in single digits and rode it all the way down and then sold around $12.  They own a ton of valuable assets.  They got themselves in trouble financially getting into oil and other expenditures but seemed to have gotten out of it.  
Click to expand...
own a few hundred shares of this. it's been a wild ride over the years. they recently brought back a dividend, albeit paltry.

 
culdeus said:
So I cashed out a little and was looking for something to do with the cash other than hiding it in a mattress.  

If you got 30k lying around (and a wife) you can do worse than earning about 5%APR over 90 days.  

https://www.doctorofcredit.com/chase-500-checking-savings-bonus-publicly-available-branch/

90 days from now the tie up in PEATF will be gone, just saying.
Click to expand...
:hifive:

https://i.imgur.com/y7Ipwnj.png

You need to wait 90 days for the $200 Savings bonus though. Wife doesn't work (therefore no direct deposit), so just me. 

I took the $500 though  :thumbup:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Nice call
Click to expand...
I feel the inflation. I'm paying north of $3 for a slice of pizza, $6 for milk, $5 for cereal, $3 for gas... It's there, it is def going to be showing up in all of the monthly reports and rates will rise and the Fed will hike. 

Rates are going up... The trick is figuring out when the bull will die. 3% is still historically low, so while we have turbulence, for the time being, staying the course is the move IMO. But, the good times only have so much longer. That correction was a taste of how quick and ugly it will be when it really hits.

I think the trickiest part is figuring out the tipping point. I've tried to develop a few specific reasons for what will be the final tipping point. 

Lately, I'm leaning on housing, which sounds foolish, but hear me out:

30 year rates are near 5 year highs, only difference between now and the last 5 years (besides affordability being much worse due to the rise in housing prices) are they're not going to reverse now, they're going higher. Every 25 basis points pushes buyers out of the market, we've easily got another 50, maybe even 100 in the next 12 months. Early 2019, I'd think we're between 5-5.5% on the 30 year and that will be a big problem. The economy hums along with the middle class, but when affordability is near all time lows, and rates are rising, buyers disappear. What happens, house prices reverse - my thoughts are, when you start seeing housing data getting softer and softer, it is time to punch your exit ticket - that'll be your warning. 

IDK, love to hear other thoughts on what kills the bull, but I'm watching housing and credit card defaults pretty closely right now.

 
This is the scary part though:

Remember, yields move inverse to prices, so usually when you see this in indexes, https://i.imgur.com/PluHa16.png, you typically see a flight to safety and yields drop https://i.imgur.com/qSsQRZv.png

Look at 2pm and onwards - there is nowhere to hide... Furthermore, with all the debt the Orange buffoon is bringing us, the dollar is getting whacked (I find the currency markets are usually the smartest of the bunch and the dollar has gotten slaughtered). 

With nowhere to hide, a weakening dollar (cash is no good, furthermore - inflation)... Where to go? 

Which leads me to gold - usually no good against rising rates, but to me, feels like could be safety when the tipping point hits. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I feel the inflation. I'm paying north of $3 for a slice of pizza, $6 for milk, $5 for cereal, $3 for gas... It's there, it is def going to be showing up in all of the monthly reports and rates will rise and the Fed will hike. 

Rates are going up... The trick is figuring out when the bull will die. 3% is still historically low, so while we have turbulence, for the time being, staying the course is the move IMO. But, the good times only have so much longer. That correction was a taste of how quick and ugly it will be when it really hits.

I think the trickiest part is figuring out the tipping point. I've tried to develop a few specific reasons for what will be the final tipping point. 

Lately, I'm leaning on housing, which sounds foolish, but hear me out:

30 year rates are near 5 year highs, only difference between now and the last 5 years (besides affordability being much worse due to the rise in housing prices) are they're not going to reverse now, they're going higher. Every 25 basis points pushes buyers out of the market, we've easily got another 50, maybe even 100 in the next 12 months. Early 2019, I'd think we're between 5-5.5% on the 30 year and that will be a big problem. The economy hums along with the middle class, but when affordability is near all time lows, and rates are rising, buyers disappear. What happens, house prices reverse - my thoughts are, when you start seeing housing data getting softer and softer, it is time to punch your exit ticket - that'll be your warning. 

IDK, love to hear other thoughts on what kills the bull, but I'm watching housing and credit card defaults pretty closely right now.
Click to expand...
Anyone? Ideas on what ends the bull? Collectively as a group, if everyone has an idea, one of us idiots has to be right.

I think it’s an important discussion - when the bull ends, easily 30%, maybe more downside... Worth figuring out how to protect your assets in advance, not while it’s happening. We’ve got time, but nonetheless - I’m starting to think about this.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Anyone? Ideas on what ends the bull? Collectively as a group, if everyone has an idea, one of us idiots has to be right.

I think it’s an important discussion - when the bull ends, easily 30%, maybe more downside... Worth figuring out how to protect your assets in advance, not while it’s happening. We’ve got time, but nonetheless - I’m starting to think about this.
Click to expand...
Me too.

when 4 of my 5 major stock holdings are up 75%, feels like I should be cashing in

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Anyone? Ideas on what ends the bull? Collectively as a group, if everyone has an idea, one of us idiots has to be right.

I think it’s an important discussion - when the bull ends, easily 30%, maybe more downside... Worth figuring out how to protect your assets in advance, not while it’s happening. We’ve got time, but nonetheless - I’m starting to think about this.
Click to expand...
Why does it have to end in a crash?  

The much more likely situation is we end with a period of a long sideways meandering to nowhere. 

 
culdeus said:
Why does it have to end in a crash?  

The much more likely situation is we end with a period of a long sideways meandering to nowhere. 
Click to expand...
Who’s buying all this debt we’re issuing (and it’s unprecedented)? What happens when we get to 4%? What if we get to 5%? With the Fed trying to unwind gazillions...

You see how quick we dropped 10%? With real issues, if housing starts to falter, if inflation overshoots - with all the money pumped into the system over the last decade, you can’t see a scenario where we crash? Now, I’m not talking about a 60% crash, but 30, and quick, I can see that unfolding with ease in the next 12-24 months. 

To say that consolidating and moving sideways is the far more likely scenario is the product of the last decade where we’ve forgotten, things can and do go wrong.

 
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