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1 hour ago, kevzilla said:

On the plus side, I'm lapping the field in the stock contest (after one month).

I was wondering who the pump and dump artist on this board was...

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7 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Yeah, I can't sell the former and the latter, I consider a lottery ticket.  It'll hit an air pocket, but I'll gamble that if management can hit its marks, this thing will be a homerun.

Three metaphors on one ticker. That's impressive.

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Think we're getting ready for a nice afternoon selloff.

Edited by fantasycurse42

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6 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Think we're getting ready for a nice afternoon selloff.

I'm beginning to think this is a russian bot account.

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3 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Bingo - $700k home last year with 20% down and factoring taxes of $1,400 a month and an interest rate of 3.75%, your monthly nut was $4,200 (mortgage, interest, tax). 

Artificially low rates have driven the prices of everything up, including housing - when rates rise, and that free boost is gone, there will be pain. 

At 4.5%, that same home now has a monthly of $4,460 (in just 6 months, your nut is up over $3k a year)... 4.5% isn't enough to throw things off the rails, but rates are going up and at 5.5% now your nut is $4,800 - difference of over $7k a year in just the course of 18 months (if rates keep shooting up)... $7k a year makes a huge difference here, and at that point, I'd think we have problems.

You can use those same precentages across any price level

The math is inarguable - you're 100% right.  I don't doubt that we'll see a slowdown in price increases as rates increase, but in many markets (almost all of CA) there is such a shortage for housing that increased rates may simply lower demand from insane to rational, where prices increase slowly or remain stable for a couple of years.  

I was all in on the last crash, largely because the economics just didn't make sense and there was massive fraud going on (bartenders owning 4 homes, NINJA loans, etc.)  I think increased rates will certainly price some folks on the margins out for awhile, I'm with @St. Louis Bob - I just don't see 5.5% causing a mass exodus or a housing led recession. I could certainly be wrong.  :shrug:

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2 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

The math is inarguable - you're 100% right.  I don't doubt that we'll see a slowdown in price increases as rates increase, but in many markets (almost all of CA) there is such a shortage for housing that increased rates may simply lower demand from insane to rational, where prices increase slowly or remain stable for a couple of years.  

I was all in on the last crash, largely because the economics just didn't make sense and there was massive fraud going on (bartenders owning 4 homes, NINJA loans, etc.)  I think increased rates will certainly price some folks on the margins out for awhile, I'm with @St. Louis Bob - I just don't see 5.5% causing a mass exodus or a housing led recession. I could certainly be wrong.  :shrug:

The example above shows a difference of 14% in cost of ownership - the economy hums along on the middle class, and if you don't think a difference of 14% in housing costs (when affordability is already extremely stretched by all metrics) is going to have a drastic impact on the middle class, we'll prob just be talking past each other. 

14% more expensive, 14% less affordable, 14% more going to lending costs, 14% less going into the economy. That is 5.5% versus last year. Start doing those numbers at 6 or 6.5%. 

First time homebuyers have never seen anything like that, and the SLB example of 8.5% is unheard of to them.

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24 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I'm beginning to think this is a russian bot account.

Nasdaq has been sliding for the last 2 hours, the other indexes will play catch up - I'd prefer to be wrong, but it looks doubtful.

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28 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

The example above shows a difference of 14% in cost of ownership - the economy hums along on the middle class, and if you don't think a difference of 14% in housing costs (when affordability is already extremely stretched by all metrics) is going to have a drastic impact on the middle class, we'll prob just be talking past each other. 

14% more expensive, 14% less affordable, 14% more going to lending costs, 14% less going into the economy. That is 5.5% versus last year. Start doing those numbers at 6 or 6.5%. 

First time homebuyers have never seen anything like that, and the SLB example of 8.5% is unheard of to them.

I'm agreeing that it will have an impact; how drastic is open for debate.  Are you predicting 6.5% interest rates in the near future, and a housing led recession?  Because if not, we're probably in agreement.  

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38 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

The math is inarguable - you're 100% right.  I don't doubt that we'll see a slowdown in price increases as rates increase, but in many markets (almost all of CA) there is such a shortage for housing that increased rates may simply lower demand from insane to rational, where prices increase slowly or remain stable for a couple of years.  

I was all in on the last crash, largely because the economics just didn't make sense and there was massive fraud going on (bartenders owning 4 homes, NINJA loans, etc.)  I think increased rates will certainly price some folks on the margins out for awhile, I'm with @St. Louis Bob - I just don't see 5.5% causing a mass exodus or a housing led recession. I could certainly be wrong.  :shrug:

Same way in Portland. Mortgage interest rates below 7% or 8% is still healthy if economy is strong with employment and income. For the past  few years (Arguably a decade) US economy was subsidized by government that rescued industries from auto to banking and housing. Now we are on track to what real economy should look like. Buy vs. Rent is the key to each owner occupied purchase regardless of the price point of the purchase or interest rate.   

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5 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

I'm agreeing that it will have an impact; how drastic is open for debate.  Are you predicting 6.5% interest rates in the near future, and a housing led recession?  Because if not, we're probably in agreement.  

I'm just theorizing things that could topple the bull market, housing is just an idea, while I prefaced it sounds foolish, I don't think it should be dismissed. 

While supply (or lack of) has been the story for some time now, the report from earlier in the week showed that existing home sales fell at their largest pace in 3 years. Now you can say that is due to the lack of supply (obviously), but there is an underlying current there; the lack of consumers who can afford the limited supply out there. As rates rise (which they are almost guaranteed to do at this juncture), even less people will be able to fill that gap... So what happens? Prices will have to fall to lure buyers back in. 

Rates go down, prices skyrocket, what I'm saying is, what happens when you come off of this decade of almost "free to borrow" money and the rates move aggressively up... I don't think that will cause prices to stagnate, I think it will cause prices to fall until we hit a more 'normal' target of affordability, which again, is extremely stretched right now looking at wage growth compared to price growth (or most any other metric). 

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& honestly, my goal is to try and spur conversation about what topples this market, what happens in the next 6-24 months that ends this decade of bull market - I'm just throwing one idea out there... I'm really interested in hearing others, because while I don't think it is quite over, I do think we need to start forming personal plans to protect capital for when it does hit. You don't want to start looking for a plan when it is too late - we're late cycle, smart investors are developing their strategies now for preservation.

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P retty

E xciting 

A nd

T hankfully I have a 

F ###load of it 

Edited by Capella

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On 2/8/2018 at 7:45 PM, Plorfu said:

PEATF is my jam.

Is +137.89% in less than a month good?

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49 minutes ago, Capella said:

:lmao:   Just got nuked for 2 weeks so I better tighten up. 

You too? I just discovered that you can't mention Cousin It and DJT in the same sentence. 

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1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

& honestly, my goal is to try and spur conversation about what topples this market, what happens in the next 6-24 months that ends this decade of bull market 

Right now the fundamentals of the economy are about as good as it gets.  There are no chinks in the armor yet - there will likely be indicators that pop up to give warning signals.

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2 minutes ago, Sand said:

Right now the fundamentals of the economy are about as good as it gets.  There are no chinks in the armor yet - there will likely be indicators that pop up to give warning signals.

There is no more free central bank money and the market is unhappy though.

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20 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Anyone? Ideas on what ends the bull? Collectively as a group, if everyone has an idea, one of us idiots has to be right.

I think it’s an important discussion - when the bull ends, easily 30%, maybe more downside... Worth figuring out how to protect your assets in advance, not while it’s happening. We’ve got time, but nonetheless - I’m starting to think about this.

If it was obvious, the market would be pricing it in. Sure, we could throw out 100 guesses and a couple will end up coming to fruition in hindsight, but not sure how that really helps.

That said, how much more upside do you think we have until it happens? If you really think we're going to drop easily 30%+ when it does, it probably makes sense to just get out now.

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Even my little piece of the pie has a very nice surplus on it, and doing the math means that some of you guys have made thousands in not much more than a week or two. Well done, PEATF'rs :thumbup:

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Just now, kevzilla said:

Condoms or Prozac imo

I was thinking i would offer to rent out a local school stadium to watch all of his kids so he can go out for a night if he is ever in wisco.

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Wow, what just happened? This was nice, I just opened some tickers and everything I own rocketed (except AMZN, where there seems to be some magical psychological sell wall at $1,500).

Nice day all around :thumbup:

 

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2 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Wow, what just happened? This was nice, I just opened some tickers and everything I own rocketed (except AMZN, where there seems to be some magical psychological sell wall at $1,500).

I would like to publicly give HSY the :finger: for ruining what would have been an all green day.   Special kudos to CHCT for blowing the lid off of earnings.

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44 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I was thinking i would offer to rent out a local school stadium to watch all of his kids so he can go out for a night if he is ever in wisco.

:lmao::lmao:

I wish knew how to multi-quote (I used to, but it doesn't work now unless I do it on accident) but I'm delighted this worked out.  I've had several losers in here over the years too *COUGH COUGH* I'm looking at you Clearwater and all you Uranium losers *COUGH*.  I also think selling here (at least half) is the wise thing to do, even though I won't because I've never been wise in the past and I don't plan on starting now.

And no, there is never any need for gifts ever.  If you feel altruistic, maybe give a little more to your favorite charity, or mine (Chance for Hope) or consider covering SoCalBronco's Cake fees (I think he's fallen on some hard times).  Do some good.  You know, before this thing falls back to earth and you all hate me. ;)

 

Edited by General Malaise
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4 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Well....that was an ominous close.  Hope all that selling was from you guys. :oldunsure:

 

You are just begging for someone to make a @SECAuditor alias.  

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35 minutes ago, culdeus said:

You are just begging for someone to make a @SECAuditor alias.  

:lmao:

Do you think they remember me for turning over 5 years of emails which included about 57,909 Forrestmail distributions?  I'm already a legend over there.  

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49 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Well....that was an ominous close.  Hope all that selling was from you guys. :oldunsure:

 

That was weird but I ain’t selling. 

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1 hour ago, General Malaise said:

Well....that was an ominous close.  Hope all that selling was from you guys. :oldunsure:

 

:lmao:

It dropped 10% on less than 100,000 shares after nearly tripling in a month. 

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18 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Send this to Mrs. GM. She needs it.

One of the best wine tasting weekends of our lives, GB.  Never had one of the gals plop down beside us an proceed to guzzle a bottle of her own wine before. It was glorious.  Pretty sure she was DTF....well, Mrs GM, but still. /SLB  Life

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4 hours ago, General Malaise said:

Peat on the hop....just touched .37 northern asssss hat wheat pennies.

Well, hell, apparently I should have held onto my shares. Anti-####### Midas touch, I swear...I can't even keep the few winners I have. Only chance of getting them any cheaper now is dilution, and good luck with that, looking at the recent run-up. 

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5 hours ago, Ridgeback said:

 Only chance of getting them any cheaper now is dilution, and good luck with that, looking at the recent run-up. 

A penny stock?  At this point the FFA could crash this thing.

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Just sold have of my PEATF, leaving me 5000 free shares plus 800 bucks or whatever in profit. Locking in profits and still get to satisfy FOMO.

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1 hour ago, Plorfu said:

Just sold have of my PEATF, leaving me 5000 free shares plus 800 bucks or whatever in profit. Locking in profits and still get to satisfy FOMO.

Are you the reason it dipped?

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1 hour ago, Plorfu said:

Just sold have of my PEATF, leaving me 5000 free shares plus 800 bucks or whatever in profit. Locking in profits and still get to satisfy FOMO.

SONUVA#####!

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