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1 hour ago, joker said:

I'm trying to educate myself and develop a plan thanks to this thread and all of you posting here, but until I'm better educated I'm looking for general information on the quote/unquote "safest" or "easiest" places to put my money while I continue to learn. Not a "just buy Amazon/Apple/etc" type of thing, I understand there's no easy solution. More just general advice I guess. 

What's your risk tolerance?  How much can you see your money decrease without freaking out?

This page has some amazing breakdowns of popular portfolio constructions and how they perform over time.   It can be as easy as a three fund portfolio (though if I were picking I'd go with the Coffeehouse, rebalance annually and mostly forget about it the rest of the time).  It can be very simple (these are both very simple).  The risk can be tailored to your tolerance (mostly - this is all based on past market behavior).

 

1 hour ago, joker said:

I'm far more ignorant than pretty much all of you in regards to the stock market, so forgive me for being an idiot, but in regards to Siff's post just above:

-If I understand correctly, the three approaches were:

  -100% into the "total market" for the bull market, and then when the market turned to a bear market, all money was pulled out and put into the "bond market"

  -100% into the "total market" and just buy and hold, staying in the "total market" the entire time

  -60% into the "total market" and 40% into the "bond market", and just buy and hold, staying 60/40 the entire time

By "total market" and "bond market", what do you mean exactly? S&P 500 mutual funds & same type of thing for bonds, or just that the investor would only invest in either the stock market or bonds, whether or not he was purchasing individual stocks, mutual funds, etc.? And based on your numbers, doesn't that mean that the lazy approach is by far the best approach and you should move everything into the stock market during confirmed bull runs and then put it all into bonds during confirmed bear runs? Finally, if that is or at least has been the best approach over the last 23 years, where are the "best" places to park the money in both the stock market and the bond market for the non-savvy investor until he can educate himself and become more savvy? 

One thing to be aware of here is that it isn't easy to identify and act on a "bull" and "bear" market.  #3, for simplicity, is by far the easiest to do, though I'd recommend (as above) a bit more diversification than just 60/40.  It turns out diversification is the greatest insurance you get get in the markets, and even roughly done works well.  Adding in a bit of large, a bit of small, and some real estate does wonders for drawdown amelioration.

 

Edited by Sand
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2 hours ago, joker said:

 And based on your numbers, doesn't that mean that the lazy approach is by far the best approach and you should move everything into the stock market during confirmed bull runs and then put it all into bonds during confirmed bear runs?

The hard part is knowing whether an individual day's 200+ point drop is just noise, or the start of going from bull to bear. I don't see if Siff accounts for how much is lost "off the top" waiting for confirmation that you've gone from bull to bear. I mean, if you lose 3000 points between the actual start of the bear, and knowing it's the start of the bear, that has to factor in somewhere.

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Thanks, guys - exactly the kind of info I'm looking for :thumbup:  I don't have FBG-type money in my 401k, Roth, and other investments but it's a lot to me, and up until now I've been playing it safe with my choices. I'm mostly interested in diversifying my portfolio at this point, and my risk tolerance is closer to medium at this point in my life. All your comments are greatly appreciated, and I'll be sure to check out the provided links. 

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I'll do my best to answer as many of the questions posted above as I can.

First of all - the purpose here is more "educational" than "you absolutely need to do this". I question the preferred methods of financial advisors and big financial institutions.  Why?  Because their number one goal is to make money for themselves - and if you happen to make money along the way...that's great too.  But it is not their priority.  No one and I mean NO ONE cares more about your money than you do.

To answer the first question.  In this experiment we have 3 scenarios.

#1: Lazy Portfolio.  Is a stratgey that goes LONG a Total US Market Fund when the Market is Trending Bullish.  The Strategy sells out of that fund and goes 100% into a Total US Bond Fund when the Market is Trending Bearish.  I used Vanguard Funds in this experiment.   This is a Lazy Portfolio which means you only need to look at a chart 1x per month - at the end of the month and then determine if the market is bullish or bearish.  In this case I used a Moving Average Cross to determine trend.  To make the case for the Lazy Portfolio even lazier...trades were made at the beginning or end of the year. 

#2: Buy and Hold a fund made up of the SP500 for the entire time.  Make no mistake.  In a bull market there is really no better place you could be than 100% long the SP500.  I know that's not what they tell you (they tell you to diversify)...but it is the truth.  Test any formal Buy and Hold Diversified Strategy you want against Buy and Hold $SP500 Fund- and I doubt you can beat Long the $SP500 Fund. 

#3: Is the Oldsmobile of Investing Strategies.  Long 60% Stock; Long 40% Bonds.  

Again for the purpose of the experiment I used Vanguard Funds VTSMX for the Long Stock Position.

Funds charge for their services.  I'm not sure what the industry average is...let's say 1%, but some charge more than that.  1% MATTERS.  It's quite possible that the more basic your portfolio is - the better your long term results will be because that fee funds charge eats...year over year...and the difference in holding a 1% fee fund  vs a 2% fee fund over your lifetime is significant.

Vanguard is great for cheap fees.  Fidelity and Schwab also have cheap fees.  Pick funds that charge you as little as possible.  

The Portfoliocharts.com page that Sand listed is AWESOME!  What a great resource.  I really appreciate all the things you post Sand. 

I ran the Coffeehouse Portfolio through the same time periods as the other 3 Portfolios and here is what I come up with:

Coffeehouse

  1. 1995-2000     $10000->$20267     CAGR=12.49%
  2. 2001-03     $20267->$24547     CAGR=6.60%
  3. 2004-07     $24547->$35223     CAGR=9.45%
  4. 2008-09     $35223->$32893     CAGR=-3.36%
  5. 2010-18     $32893->$67851    CAGR 9.37%

When running it straight from 1995-Present I come up with:

  1. 1995-2018     $10000->$68904     CAGR=8.72%

Goes back to my point---If you are just going to Buy and Hold - I don't think you can do better long term than just holding 100% SP500.  If someone can show results otherwise...I'll happily agree.

But I think you can do better than that.  I wholeheartedly disagree that it is difficult to identify and determine trend.  Especially when you take a broad view of the market.  It doesn't need to be complicated.  It doesn't need to take a lot of time.  In this case the Lazy Portfolio is following along a monthly chart and actually making investment decisions annually (if at all).  My view is that it is far easier and far more portifable to spend time learning how to identify that trend and being aligned to the trend (ie: Bullish when the market trends bullish and Conservative  when the market trends bearish). In the Lazy Portfolio a 200 point swing in the market on any given day is just noise.  And while times like early February might be uncomfortable - the Lazy Portfolio is an example of a set plan of ACTION - and you know precisely what to do and when to do it.

For the Lazy Portfolioer..the trend remains Bullish - even after the action of February.  While I do believe that we can expect some increase in volatility...and while I do believe we are in the later stage of this bull market.  Odds favor remaining long until that trend has flipped.  Could that occur in the next 30 days...unlikely but anything is possible.  Most major trend rolls are drawn out...and as I said the powers that be will flash their signals and provide multiple exit opportunities.  So Relax because Emotions are a traders and investors' biggest enemy.

 

Notes: I ran some scenarios for different portfolios that Sand listed.

To test this : Again I ran the numbers for 4 of the Portfolios from Portfoliocharts.com from Jan 2007-Present (I'm limited because some funds in these portfolios don't go back to 1995).  Buy and Hold the Diversified Portfolio vs. Buy and Hold Vanguard VTSMX (Total Market Fund).  Here's those results:

Jan 2007-Present

  1. 7Twelve     CAGR 4.35%   vs    VTSMX   CAGR 8.75%
  2. All-Season CAGR 6.24%   vs    VTSMX   CAGR 8.75%
  3. Ivy              CAGR 3.87%   vs   VTSMX   CAGR 8.75%
  4. C.House    CAGR 5.78%   vs    VTSMX   CAGR 8.75%

Ah...but Siff..you're cherry picking by starting near the top of a bull market into a huge bear market....ok...here's the what the portfolios look like from 2009-Present (bottom of a bear market into one if not the biggest bull market of your lifetime)

January 2009-Present

  1. 7Twelve     CAGR 8.8%   vs   VTSMX   CAGR 15.88%
  2. All-Season CAGR 8.33%  vs   VTSMX   CAGR 15.88%
  3. Ivy             CAGR 9.10%   vs   VTSMX   CAGR 15.88%
  4. C.House    CAGR 10.99%   vs  VTSMX  CAGR 15.88%
Edited by siffoin
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On 2/14/2018 at 2:21 PM, St. Louis Bob said:

Put what I thought was a low ball offer in this morning and got 500 TVIX at $8.60

Out at $9.65.  Sucks, had an order in for an additional 1000 at $6.75 a couple of weeks ago that never hit.

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2 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

Out at $9.65.  Sucks, had an order in for an additional 1000 at $6.75 a couple of weeks ago that never hit.

Hey, a win's a win. :thumbup: *highfive*

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Any short term Total US Bond Fund's that anyone here would recommend? US treasuries are obviously the safest, but looking at the yields...yeesh. 

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3 minutes ago, Ridgeback said:

Any short term Total US Bond Fund's that anyone here would recommend? US treasuries are obviously the safest, but looking at the yields...yeesh. 

I use SHY.

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I really dislike Donald Trump. I mean this isn't new, but right now I felt like voicing it again.

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Forget housing, new theory, much quicker death to the bull market, a trade war - who doesn't like a good ol' fashioned trade war? What isn't there to like?

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14 minutes ago, Sand said:

I use SHY.

Ha! I have a small amount of that, I believe I picked up when you mentioned it over the last couple of years. It's been a dog over the last six months, but that should average back out soon.

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1 hour ago, siffoin said:

But I think you can do better than that.  I wholeheartedly disagree that it is difficult to identify and determine trend.  Especially when you take a broad view of the market.  It doesn't need to be complicated.  It doesn't need to take a lot of time.  In this case the Lazy Portfolio is following along a monthly chart and actually making investment decisions annually (if at all).  My view is that it is far easier and far more portifable to spend time learning how to identify that trend and being aligned to the trend (ie: Bullish when the market trends bullish and Conservative  when the market trends bearish). In the Lazy Portfolio a 200 point swing in the market on any given day is just noise.  And while times like early February might be uncomfortable - the Lazy Portfolio is an example of a set plan of ACTION - and you know precisely what to do and when to do it.

For the Lazy Portfolioer..the trend remains Bullish - even after the action of February.  While I do believe that we can expect some increase in volatility...and while I do believe we are in the later stage of this bull market.  Odds favor remaining long until that trend has flipped.  Could that occur in the next 30 days...unlikely but anything is possible.  Most major trend rolls are drawn out...and as I said the powers that be will flash their signals and provide multiple exit opportunities.  So Relax because Emotions are a traders and investors' biggest enemy.

Just to clarify- are you saying that if this trend change takes place say in March, you wouldn't make any changes until Dec 31st?

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2 minutes ago, humpback said:

Just to clarify- are you saying that if this trend change takes place say in March, you wouldn't make any changes until Dec 31st?

NO NO NO.

I'm saying when I ran the Lazy Portfolio...positions were opened/closed at the end/beginning of a year- it was just an easier simulation to run as this is educational.

If THIS market continues to tank and rolls over let's say a month or two from now...we'd exit VTSMX at that time.  Following a trend does not mean you time the market to catch the absolute market top and bottom.  It means you have the observational skill of a low minded chimp with the ability to ascertain the market in general is moving either up or down.  The goal is to capture 75-90% of a primary trend...not all of it.

Today SUCKS.  Days like this SUCK.  But look at the chart I posted.  In general which direction does the market look like it is moving?  See the forest through the trees if you have a long horizon.

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@siffoin do your charts predict a president that doesn't act rationally, and has nearly no concept of well, anything?

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4 minutes ago, siffoin said:

NO NO NO.

I'm saying when I ran the Lazy Portfolio...positions were opened/closed at the end/beginning of a year- it was just an easier simulation to run as this is educational.

If THIS market continues to tank and rolls over let's say a month or two from now...we'd exit VTSMX at that time.  Following a trend does not mean you time the market to catch the absolute market top and bottom.  It means you have the observational skill of a low minded chimp with the ability to ascertain the market in general is moving either up or down.  The goal is to capture 75-90% of a primary trend...not all of it.

Today SUCKS.  Days like this SUCK.  But look at the chart I posted.  In general which direction does the market look like it is moving?  See the forest through the trees if you have a long horizon.

That's what I thought, just wanted to clarify what you meant. Making investment decisions annually has been better than buy and hold, but making them monthly is better than annually.

What time frame MA's are those on the chart? It seems like a couple of other times they came very close to crossing, and may actually have in real time prior to the monthly bar closing.

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

@siffoin do your charts predict a president that doesn't act rationally, and has nearly no concept of well, anything?

Sadly no.  And unfortuantely our president doesn't even have the observational skills of a low minded chimp.  Stable genius among the domesticated turkey however.

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11 minutes ago, culdeus said:

@siffoin do your charts predict a president that doesn't act rationally, and has nearly no concept of well, anything?

My only real hope here is simple:

The only thing this moron is measuring himself on that he can look at it in black and white is the stock market. He has to see this reaction today as a precursor to what would happen should he enact steel & aluminum tariffs. Hopefully he walks back off the ledge, bc this would be a slippery slope, and honestly, I don't have a plan for a trade war. Maybe I'd just put my money in the Yen until it would settle... But if he does follow through on this, it is the spark to what could be big trouble. 

Edited by fantasycurse42

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9 minutes ago, humpback said:

That's what I thought, just wanted to clarify what you meant. Making investment decisions annually has been better than buy and hold, but making them monthly is better than annually.

What time frame MA's are those on the chart? It seems like a couple of other times they came very close to crossing, and may actually have in real time prior to the monthly bar closing.

There are a couple of whipsaws on the chart.  From June 2010-Sept 2010.  The result of those would be a loss of appox 16 SPY Pts.  Investing through whipsaws is frustrating...in hindsite it's a missed opportunity of 16 pts out of 160 of the trend.  Whipsaws happen.  I'd suggest spending time on how to overcome that flaw of trend following as a primary exercise.

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@siffoin

Is $1,465 any moving average for Amazon? I've got the 20 day around $1,455 and the 50 day around $1,390 - Saw a huge bounce off of $1,465, so trying to put the pieces together on this one. 

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10 minutes ago, siffoin said:

There are a couple of whipsaws on the chart.  From June 2010-Sept 2010.  The result of those would be a loss of appox 16 SPY Pts.  Investing through whipsaws is frustrating...in hindsite it's a missed opportunity of 16 pts out of 160 of the trend.  Whipsaws happen.  I'd suggest spending time on how to overcome that flaw of trend following as a primary exercise.

For sure, wasn't meant to be taken as a criticism, just a question. These are monthly bars obviously- when you make your investment decisions, I assume it's using a shorter time frame (weekly or daily)?

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7 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

@siffoin

Is $1,465 any moving average for Amazon? I've got the 20 day around $1,455 and the 50 day around $1,390 - Saw a huge bounce off of $1,465, so trying to put the pieces together on this one. 

I think $1400ish is in play.

60 min chart is bearish.

Daily chart with support at 1400->1275->1200 (ish).  We play a Zone with support levels.

It's tough to get a perfect read on what this market is doing...that's why I think it's better to take the wide-view

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PEATF is a roller coaster

$.28 to .23 and then back up to $.28 over the last couple hours or so.

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Today should be pleasant. 

“Trade wars are easy to win” - Donald Trump, 3/2/18 

No shtick, the moron said that. 

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7 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Today should be pleasant. 

“Trade wars are easy to win” - Donald Trump, 3/2/18 

No shtick, the moron said that. 

Extreme hostility and aggression is a winning strategy with our biggest partners and debt holders.

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Hate to say this, but the market needs to sell aggressively until the moron decides this is a bad idea. 

We’ll get it right back once he does, but if he doesn’t, IDK.

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17 hours ago, Aaron Rudnicki said:

PEATF is a roller coaster

$.28 to .23 and then back up to $.28 over the last couple hours or so.

Did they change their symbol? I am seeing the price as of close if business the 28th everywhere i look

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

Cobalt 27 news out yesterday too. 130 million offering. 

This a buying opp in your opinion?

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Can we discuss real issues? Anyone interested in any of this stuff?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/how-gary-cohn-got-overruled-on-trumps-tariffs.html

If this guy walks over the weekend, I see a 5% fall in the market Monday, along with those tariffs being signed and the spark that could lead to the death of the bull. The chaos that we all feared when Trump was elected, it's bubbling beneath the surface right now. 

I honestly don't know if I want to hold anything over the weekend. For the first time in a while, I think there are some very legitimate reasons to be scared. 

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10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Can we discuss real issues? Anyone interested in any of this stuff?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/how-gary-cohn-got-overruled-on-trumps-tariffs.html

If this guy walks over the weekend, I see a 5% fall in the market Monday, along with those tariffs being signed and the spark that could lead to the death of the bull. The chaos that we all feared when Trump was elected, it's bubbling beneath the surface right now. 

I honestly don't know if I want to hold anything over the weekend. For the first time in a while, I think there are some very legitimate reasons to be scared. 

If Cohn were to leave the White House I think there would be a selloff but not another 5%.  The tariffs are a bad idea but the economy is strong enough right now to overcome it and when earnings start coming in early April I am confident the bull cycle will resume.  

Bull markets always end with large equity fund inflows.  We are still seeing far more money going into bonds and until that changes I think this bull market continues.  However, volatility is now back so these corrections will continue to take place.  I expect people to continue to buy on the dips.

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3 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

If Cohn were to leave the White House I think there would be a selloff but not another 5%.  The tariffs are a bad idea but the economy is strong enough right now to overcome it and when earnings start coming in early April I am confident the bull cycle will resume.  

Bull markets always end with large equity fund inflows.  We are still seeing far more money going into bonds and until that changes I think this bull market continues.  However, volatility is now back so these corrections will continue to take place.  I expect people to continue to buy on the dips.

If we enter a trade war, and inflation (which I personally believe is higher than considered right now) rockets, say goodbye to that wonderful economic backdrop. 

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12 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

If we enter a trade war, and inflation (which I personally believe is higher than considered right now) rockets, say goodbye to that wonderful economic backdrop. 

Sure, but I don't believe inflation is going to rocket in the next year so this bull market still has legs IMO.

Powell just said yesterday that he does not "see evidence the U.S. economy is overheating" and inflation indicators are still below target.  

We are not yet in the cycle where earnings are slowing down and about to roll over while interest rates are rising, which raises recession risks.

Edited by Don't Noonan

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32 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

If Cohn were to leave the White House I think there would be a selloff but not another 5%.  The tariffs are a bad idea but the economy is strong enough right now to overcome it and when earnings start coming in early April I am confident the bull cycle will resume.  

Bull markets always end with large equity fund inflows.  We are still seeing far more money going into bonds and until that changes I think this bull market continues.  However, volatility is now back so these corrections will continue to take place.  I expect people to continue to buy on the dips.

It’s startling to read this post compared to your college football posts. 

Edit: I mean that in a nice way 

Edited by Capella
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1 hour ago, NREC34 said:

This a buying opp in your opinion?

I forgot I put in an order at $9 when everything dipped a few weeks ago.  It was still out there.

So, yes.  Yes it was.

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27 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

Sure, but I don't believe inflation is going to rocket in the next year so this bull market still has legs IMO.

Powell just said yesterday that he does not "see evidence the U.S. economy is overheating" and inflation indicators are still below target.  

We are not yet in the cycle where earnings are slowing down and about to roll over while interest rates are rising, which raises recession risks.

Ben Bernanke (then Fed Chief) also said the MBS problems wouldn't spill over into the real economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/id/18718555

He either slightly misread that one, or slightly deceived the general public.

Edited by fantasycurse42

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The GOP is outraged, which is my hope for him walking this back. 

If he doesn't, and Cohn resigns, the fear of Cohn resigning is a real fear - he is the voice of reason on his economic team, without Cohn, Trump's economic team is one big echo chamber... That scares the daylights out of me. 

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$1,485 - just sold Amazon, maybe a knee jerk reaction, but whatever... It was my largest position and I have a #### ton of profit there.

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7 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

$1,485 - just sold Amazon, maybe a knee jerk reaction, but whatever... It was my largest position and I have a #### ton of profit there.

Lol man you need to take a deep breath. 

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10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

$1,485 - just sold Amazon, maybe a knee jerk reaction, but whatever... It was my largest position and I have a #### ton of profit there.

Short term or long term?

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37 minutes ago, Capella said:

It’s startling to read this post compared to your college football posts. 

Edit: I mean that in a nice way 

All good.  I am a glass half full admitted Oregon homer but I love college football.

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Just now, General Malaise said:

Short term or long term?

Short term. I need to see how this shakes out... Everything I read says Cohn lobbied super hard against this, he can't be happy being overruled like this. Guy isn't exactly hard-pressed to find another cushy job.

Everything has been so good, we forgot about what a maniac is in the WH - if Cohn goes, who is the voice of reason on his economic team? Quite frankly, that scares the daylights out of me... a bunch of people just echoing Trump's opinions, no thanks. 

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1 hour ago, NREC34 said:

This a buying opp in your opinion?

That is a tough one because of the volume. I dont own KBLT, just pay attention to it since it was brought up in here so often. So I will give you the non answer, answer.

This offering just went down at 11.40 for 11.4 million shares. I like the symmetry, btw. But anyway. Safe to say if 11.4 million shares were unloaded in this thing, the price would crater well below $11.40(canadian). So the people that just put 130 million into this obviously feel the price is going to go considerably higher. The concern I would have is that it jumped from like $8.50 to $10.50USD a while back on like 10k shares. That is insane. If you look at their market cap though they are at 319million and have 208 million in physical cobalt and roughly 140 million in cash. If you think cobalt is going to go up, I would say this is a very safe entry point. 

I havent studied the cobalt market like GM has, he is obviously bullish on it. 

  

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3 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

That is a tough one because of the volume. I dont own KBLT, just pay attention to it since it was brought up in here so often. So I will give you the non answer, answer.

This offering just went down at 11.40 for 11.4 million shares. I like the symmetry, btw. But anyway. Safe to say if 11.4 million shares were unloaded in this thing, the price would crater well below $11.40(canadian). So the people that just put 130 million into this obviously feel the price is going to go considerably higher. The concern I would have is that it jumped from like $8.50 to $10.50USD a while back on like 10k shares. That is insane. If you look at their market cap though they are at 319million and have 208 million in physical cobalt and roughly 140 million in cash. If you think cobalt is going to go up, I would say this is a very safe entry point. 

I havent studied the cobalt market like GM has, he is obviously bullish on it. 

  

Very hopeful that this is the last financing deal in advance of a major announcement regarding a stream.  

 

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