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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

-OZ- said:
If I understood why Bitcoin / crypto is worth $X I'd consider it. I understand the appeal, I don't know what makes it worth a certain amount. 
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I think of it more of a service than a commodity. 

Supply / Demand determines price.

 
sbonomo said:
@General Malaise - Theoretically This helps us right with our CBLLF investment right - 25MM batteries ordered by VW?
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VW originally came to the table and demanded a fixed price for cobalt well under the market because they were VW, damn it.  They were laughed out of the room.  Seems like they have come to their senses.  No doubt about it, the EV revolution is here and yes, it bodes very well for CBLLF/KBLT.  Cobalt prices are moving higher now with velocity. Paid $42/Lb today for new material.  

 
@cosjobs

Sorry I missed your call GB.  Insanely busy with work and lots of really stupid pointless meetings in between.  When I'm not doing that I just want to veg.  Maybe talk this weekend.

ETA  If it tells you anything I had my annual NCAA draft last night.  Had 2 beers and went home immediately after it's finished.  First year ever I can actually read my handwriting and tell what teams I have.

Also:

Pennsylvania Election Holds Clues for Stock Market Fortunes

 
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Bob Sacamano said:
I thought I read that SBUX same store sales were cratering.  No?
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From what I understand is that they are/were so busy that they weren't serving customers in a timely manner pissing people off.  They are still expanding and trying different changes with their store footprint and tech to serve faster.  At least that's what I read a while ago.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Are they attempting to do that?  And where do/would they fit in?
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Found this from a couple of years ago...

 https://www.google.com/amp/s/venturebeat.com/2014/07/14/digital-distribution-isnt-killing-retailer-gamestop-its-only-making-it-stronger/amp/

In 2013, the company generated $724.4 million in digital sales. That includes its Kongregate mobile gaming site, PC digital downloads, and in-store digital sales. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2014, GameStop noted that its digital revenue grew 9.5 percent year-over-year thanks in large part to currency cards for PS4 and Xbox One.

 
I would dig more on Game stop though. Q3 '17 investor presentation only shows $37.2 million in digital sales - obviously a far cry (hehe) from the $724MM reported in the article.

 
Hey @fantasycurse42 what is your opinion of where the market would be right now had tax cuts not passed? I’m getting grief over on the political board in a thread over there. You seem pretty knowledgeable about these things. 

Anyone else feel free to chime in too. Heck, maybe I’m wrong on this. 

 
NREC34 said:
Hey @fantasycurse42 what is your opinion of where the market would be right now had tax cuts not passed? I’m getting grief over on the political board in a thread over there. You seem pretty knowledgeable about these things. 

Anyone else feel free to chime in too. Heck, maybe I’m wrong on this. 
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Hard to say for sure.  I think as soon as Trump got elected it was pretty clear some amount of tax cut was going to hit.  So that doesn't change all the EBxxxxx items. Ultimately, it should wash out.  Companies are so globalized now that the US based tax is in many cases not even all that big a deal.  

 
General Malaise said:
VW originally came to the table and demanded a fixed price for cobalt well under the market because they were VW, damn it.  They were laughed out of the room.  Seems like they have come to their senses.  No doubt about it, the EV revolution is here and yes, it bodes very well for CBLLF/KBLT.  Cobalt prices are moving higher now with velocity. Paid $42/Lb today for new material.  
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:hifive:  - Time to make our millions and F - VW, what a disaster of a corporation. 

 
culdeus said:
Hard to say for sure.  I think as soon as Trump got elected it was pretty clear some amount of tax cut was going to hit.  So that doesn't change all the EBxxxxx items. Ultimately, it should wash out.  Companies are so globalized now that the US based tax is in many cases not even all that big a deal.  
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Exactly. 

And when the market is expecting something to happen and it doesn’t....

Everybody sells and panics. It wouldn’t have been good. Impossible to prove though so kind of hard to argue. 

 
sbonomo said:
:hifive:  - Time to make our millions and F - VW, what a disaster of a corporation. 
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Glencore to Sell Third of Cobalt Output to Chinese Battery Firm

  • GEM Co. deal to lock in more than 50,000 tons over three years
  • World’s top manufacturers racing to secure supply of material
By Mark Burton

(Bloomberg) -- 

Glencore Plc will sell about a third of its cobalt output for three years to a Chinese supplier of chemicals for batteries as the world’s top manufacturers race to secure supplies needed in powering everything from electric cars to iPads.

China’s GEM Co. and its subsidiaries will lock in 13,800 metric tons of cobalt contained in hydroxide from Glencore this year under their deal, the Shenzhen-listed company said in a filing. That will rise to 18,000 tons in 2019 and 21,000 tons in 2020. The figures represent about 35 percent of Glencore’s planned cobalt production this year, 28 percent the next and 33 percent in 2020.

Glencore, the world’s largest supplier, plans to double output in the next two years to feed booming demand. It’s held talks with Volkswagen AG, Tesla Inc. and Apple Inc., as well as major battery makers. Volkswagen said Tuesday it had secured 20 billion euros ($25 billion) in battery supplies to underpin an ambitious push into the electric-vehicle market.

With an almost four-fold jump in prices in the past two years, Glencore will only sell on a floating-price basis that offers exposure to further gains, Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg has said. GEM didn’t disclose the terms of the pricing for its deal, while a spokesman for Glencore declined to comment.

Volkswagen plans to produce 3 million battery-powered vehicles a year by 2025, and the deal with leading suppliers including Samsung SDI Co. and LG Chem Ltd. will be sufficient for the first wave of production, Chief Financial Officer Frank Witter told Bloomberg TV. When asked if the carmaker had secured the necessary cobalt in its battery deals, CFO Witter said: "For the first wave of products, we did."
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NREC34 said:
Hey @fantasycurse42 what is your opinion of where the market would be right now had tax cuts not passed? I’m getting grief over on the political board in a thread over there. You seem pretty knowledgeable about these things. 

Anyone else feel free to chime in too. Heck, maybe I’m wrong on this. 
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Complete agreement with @culdeus - market was expecting it from day one, along with deregulation. Would've been heavy selling had they not gotten the votes. The one caveat I would have to his statement is for companies that do at least 50-75% of their business here.

I stick with my opinion that we're late cycle - these gains are unsustainable... My brokerage account that I'm active with is up 14% this year, it's ####### March, I'm staying quick on my feet. The Fed also has to get moving on hikes, a recession is on the horizon - 12-30 months out... If they were to hike 25 basis points every 3 months, that would have the FFR around 3-3.25% in 2 years time, typically the Fed needs 500 basis points to fight a recession, right now they have 100, and if they went by that forecast they'd only have 300.

Here is a thought:

Trump hates being president, way too much scrutiny - a trade war gets him out in 2020. Just a thought...

 
skycriesmary said:
The start of a longer slide...
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I don't think we're at the end, just the market waking up a little to risks that are arising. If we do see some pullback, I'd think a spot that offers good r/r is the lower portion of this trend, around 23k - pardon the #### chart work, just something I whipped up on my work computer now.

https://i.imgur.com/FIFVCHq.png

ETA:

On the flip side, if we get above there, this late in the cycle, I'd think it offers a good time to take profits.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I don't think we're at the end, just the market waking up a little to risks that are arising. If we do see some pullback, I'd think a spot that offers good r/r is the lower portion of this trend, around 23k - pardon the #### chart work, just something I whipped up on my work computer now.

https://i.imgur.com/FIFVCHq.png

ETA:

On the flip side, if we get above there, this late in the cycle, I'd think it offers a good time to take profits.
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If I may be so bold.  The issue with your chart is this.  Time Frame.  And what happens on the next wider time frame.  The question you should ask is:  If $23k were to hit, how does that impact the next wider time frame...and how does that impact the next wider one.

To me this chart looks like a daily chart.  So we need to ask - if $23k gets tagged...how does that impact the weekly chart and the monthly chart.  What kind of damage do these wider charts take if that occurs.  While $23k might offer ST support and be a buy opportunity for st positions...the same may not hold true for someone with a longer term time horizon on the positions they hold.

A drop much below $23k has far stronger implications to the overall bull trend in place for years.

 
siffoin said:
If I may be so bold.  The issue with your chart is this.  Time Frame.  And what happens on the next wider time frame.  The question you should ask is:  If $23k were to hit, how does that impact the next wider time frame...and how does that impact the next wider one.

To me this chart looks like a daily chart.  So we need to ask - if $23k gets tagged...how does that impact the weekly chart and the monthly chart.  What kind of damage do these wider charts take if that occurs.  While $23k might offer ST support and be a buy opportunity for st positions...the same may not hold true for someone with a longer term time horizon on the positions they hold.

A drop much below $23k has far stronger implications to the overall bull trend in place for years.
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Thanks Siff - I used this time frame because it looks all the way back since the last time we had a correction (Jan-Feb 16)... This specific uptrend has stayed pretty contained since except when the market got super hot in Jan, jumped out of the trend, then corrected back in...

I fully get what you're saying - if you're looking at the current trend going back to March 2009, where do you see the bottom of the trend?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Thanks Siff - I used this time frame because it looks all the way back since the last time we had a correction (Jan-Feb 16)... This specific uptrend has stayed pretty contained since except when the market got super hot in Jan, jumped out of the trend, then corrected back in...

I fully get what you're saying - if you're looking at the current trend going back to March 2009, where do you see the bottom of the trend?
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I think the $SPY is better gauge.  I really don't want to get hemmed in with some kind of end of the world prediction.

Personally, my nature is pessimistic.  IF the top were in January...and the market rolls over to a full on bear.  I think we see solid support around $SPY @ $210-215ish.  But if it were to go that far I think $180-190ish is more likely.  It won't be a freefall.  There will be lots of moves up and down on the journey towards those targets..and it will take months+ to get there.

Pessimistic as I innately am- the trend is still bullish. There are concerns, canaries in the coal mines, and harbingers we just might be nearer to the end of this 9 year run than the beginning :)   But who am I to say.  The trend is what it is until it isn't.

In the last posts I made a few weeks ago...I was making the point:

  1.  Trends take time to roll over from bull to bear
  2.  When they do roll over the signs are clear
  3.  Paying attention to the trend and those signs are critical
  4.  Anyone can do it.  But there are a lot of people who make money from you by conditioning you to believe you can't
  5. Relax until you have confirmation of that new trend.  Just because they don't ring a bell at the top doesn't mean they don't signal it.  It's tough trying to rid emotion from your investment decisions.  I know that more than most.
Some may recall that a few years ago, I experimented with a Top Sector Rotation Strategy.  It failed...because in a strong bull market nothing is really going to outperform the $SPY.  In addition is was making far too many trades.  I never gave up on that idea, and have spent considerable time working on rotational strategies that outperform - trying to walk a fine line of being fully invested vs. being overly cautious.  The strategies I use personally, do get refined, but I'm pretty satisfied - as I can use x% in higher risk rotational strategies, while being more conservative in others.  The goal is to still beat the $SPY overall.  In the last 2 months it has been moving towards caution, and if it were a 60/40 portfolio...it would be 60 bonds 40 stock - (for reference that's not how the portfolio is actually structured).  Part of this is me just trusting the process of the strategies developed.  Again it's a fine line as I'm telling you to "relax" while saying I'm personally 60% bonds.  I get the seeming hypocrisy.

The chart still says BULL.  If we begin to see an increase of ST moves that are abnormally x% over a short number of days (up or down), even if we move back toward the highs on the up moves...go check on your canary.  

 
siffoin said:
Some may recall that a few years ago, I experimented with a Top Sector Rotation Strategy.  It failed...because in a strong bull market nothing is really going to outperform the $SPY.  
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I have done a tremendous amount of research into the areas - rotation, momentum, dual momentum, etc.  Lots of reading on various sites (fool has a great forum for this) and some pretty hefty excel files.  I have found these strategies to be brittle and suffer the hazards of curve fitting.  I haven't yet found a solid strategy that seems to be robust and survives well post backtest.

What I do think works are trying to ride larger trends -  mostly avoiding recessionary downturns.  This matches a lot of what you seem to be doing.  Doing a halfway passable job of avoiding recessionary downturns is where huge amounts can be gained.  

To that end I've been meaning to play with your simple SMA in/out graph you showed a bit back (work has held me back from useful activities).  It has worked wonderfully with the sharp downturns and recoveries we've seen lately (i.e. no whipsaws).  I wanted to see how it performed during the 70s malaise.  One of these days I'll have time.

-----

In other news, holy crap the IRS just punched MLPs in the nads today.   :rant:

Black swan! Black swan!

 
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Sand said:
I have done a tremendous amount of research into the areas - rotation, momentum, dual momentum, etc.  Lots of reading on various sites (fool has a great forum for this) and some pretty hefty excel files.  I have found these strategies to be brittle and suffer the hazards of curve fitting.  I haven't yet found a solid strategy that seems to be robust and survives well post backtest.

What I do think works are trying to ride larger trends -  mostly avoiding recessionary downturns.  This matches a lot of what you seem to be doing.  Doing a halfway passable job of avoiding recessionary downturns is where huge amounts can be gained.  

To that end I've been meaning to play with your simple SMA in/out graph you showed a bit back (work has held me back from useful activities).  It has worked wonderfully with the sharp downturns and recoveries we've seen lately (i.e. no whipsaws).  I wanted to see how it performed during the 70s malaise.  One of these days I'll have time.

-----

In other news, holy crap the IRS just punched MLPs in the nads today.   :rant:

Black swan! Black swan!
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Yes.  A lot of my work is focused in these areas.  How does one take the best of what they offer, and then apply it to my technical work?  As I mentioned, I'm not opposed to revising.  But I do feel that what I've got right now does work, and I think it will work in pretty much all types of markets we have moving forward.  I'm all about trend following because I think that is most important to long term success.

 
siffoin said:
Yes.  A lot of my work is focused in these areas.  How does one take the best of what they offer, and then apply it to my technical work?  As I mentioned, I'm not opposed to revising.  But I do feel that what I've got right now does work, and I think it will work in pretty much all types of markets we have moving forward.  I'm all about trend following because I think that is most important to long term success.
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All I said was I wasn't getting there.  Not that people much smarter than me can get there or have gotten there.  

I haven't found the anti-brittle I'm looking for.  But then again I tend to be more conservative than most.  

 
What are you guys putting in your Roth this year? Waiting for a pullback or see some things you like long term even if market is at a high? :popcorn:

Got lucky w Amazon last year, not sure if that’s being greedy going back to the well?

 
Sputnikv8 said:
Stupid facebook.
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Now that I have a TD Ameritrade account I thought it was a perfect time to trade "all night long"  after reading about FB but couldn't for the life of me figure out how to do it. Screw you Stevie Wonder. 

Also, no freaking way the Fed says there will be 4 more hikes this year right? 

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Now that I have a TD Ameritrade account I thought it was a perfect time to trade "all night long"  after reading about FB but couldn't for the life of me figure out how to do it. Screw you Stevie Wonder. 

Also, no freaking way the Fed says there will be 4 more hikes this year right? 
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:lmao:  at the bolded

My understanding of the new Fed regime is that raising rates is kind of their religion. Would not be shocked if one of the hikes is 50 basis points. The old man has a hard-on for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, which is well-run operation but, imo, not investable in a rising interest-rate environment.

 
RUSF18 said:
PEATF!!!!!!
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RUSF18 said:
I don't know what you people are complaining about. I'm up almost 50% on PEATF!
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RUSF18 said:
Bazooka is made by Topps, and while they're a private company, I'm pretty confident our eventual PEATF profits can buy all of us the company.
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So guess who juuuuuusst realized his 10K share order at $0.115ish never got filled?

:lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:

At least that means I'll have some free time when the rest of you are being interrogated by the SEC. 

 
  • Smile
Reactions: Ned
Did anyone else use Google Finance as their regular way to keep a quick eye on things?

They changed the format of the page a few months ago, and last week I finally got forced to switch over and it's a travesty. 

 
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Walking Boot said:
Yeah, it's really, really, really bad.

I can't figure out who to switch to to get a decent chart right now. Marketwatch seems the least stupid so far. I have no idea why no one else bothers to have a decent interface. They're all awful.
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+ 1 on the Google Finance frustrations.  It's the same as trying to find sports scores without any of the extra bs.  The google one was weird because they looked to be in testing for several months and then still crapped the bed.  I'm on Yahoo Finance now and that's not bad for my needs. I'm  just looking for major indices and then 5 or 6 of my biggest holdings.  

 
Brony said:
+ 1 on the Google Finance frustrations.  It's the same as trying to find sports scores without any of the extra bs.  The google one was weird because they looked to be in testing for several months and then still crapped the bed.  I'm on Yahoo Finance now and that's not bad for my needs. I'm  just looking for major indices and then 5 or 6 of my biggest holdings.  
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Same, and if you can't get more than 4 of my chosen symbols to display on the page without forcing me to scroll to see the rest, what purpose could you possibly serve?

 
Brony said:
+ 1 on the Google Finance frustrations.  It's the same as trying to find sports scores without any of the extra bs.  The google one was weird because they looked to be in testing for several months and then still crapped the bed.  I'm on Yahoo Finance now and that's not bad for my needs. I'm  just looking for major indices and then 5 or 6 of my biggest holdings.  
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Can't you just use Stock Charts dot com for that?  I'd think you can have a free account...then set up a google sheets page with a link to the chart. Formula:

=GOOGLEFINANCE(cell, "price")

 
siffoin said:
So this is the Warren Buffet in me talking (because I'm too damn old and don't understand Social Media Stocks so I don't own them).

Only 40% of the global population has internet accress - so that's about 3 Billion internet users in the world. Facebook says there are 1.7 billion individual active monthly users.  Which means that nearly 60% of people with internet access use $FB every month.  Now I don't know nuthin' about nuthin' but I don't have a Facebook page, have never had a Facebook page, have never logged into Facebook.  And I personally know a lot of people like me. So 1.7 billion people actively logging into Facebook?  HORSE HOCKEY!

So to me those numbers seem fishy.  On top of that - I'm confident that the revenue they generate (though real) is fleeting.  The day is coming when companies realize that advertising on Social Media platforms does not generate business.  LIKES DOES NOT EQUAL CUSTOMERS.  LIKES DOES NOT ADD TO THE BOTTOM LINE.

The ads are inundating too. So much so that I'd guess human psychology begins to ignore them...then disdain them.  I see an ad on some stupid page I intentionally won't click.  

On top of that there is just so much ad revenue to go around.  Facebook; Meetup, Yelp; Find Me #### Me (that's going to be my new startup Unicorn)....  The dominoes are stacked on a cliffs edge way too far...way too fast.  When the time is right - someone's going to make a fortune shorting these to where they belong- in the same room as Pixelon and Lycos (you know your first choice these days when it comes to internet video streaming and web search).

Now back to my Coca-Cola and a nibble on a See's Candy.
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I still don't know nothin' about this...but it sure sounds a whole lot more insidious than just manipulating their numbers.  Covert data harvesting; and invasive breach of user privacy.  YIKES!  New privacy laws in other countries are going to hit them hard.  And forget about China.  Their only hope is the continuing stupid of the American public.  I have more faith in us.  Figuring out how to short this BS Babylon to the vestiges where it belongs - next to companies like Enron.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Haven't looked at it in weeks - it's in a brokerage account I rarely frequent.

I have no intention of looking either. 

In 24 months, it will either be worth $0.0, or I'll be sitting on GM's yacht.
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Are we still buying this?  Missed it in the thread back in January.  

 
siffoin said:
I still don't know nothin' about this...but it sure sounds a whole lot more insidious than just manipulating their numbers.  Covert data harvesting; and invasive breach of user privacy.  YIKES!  New privacy laws in other countries are going to hit them hard.  And forget about China.  Their only hope is the continuing stupid of the American public.  I have more faith in us.  Figuring out how to short this BS Babylon to the vestiges where it belongs - next to companies like Enron.
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Sold my FB as soon as the news broke about this which was actually months ago. :thumbup:

Came here to what the consensus was on Google and if they would get sucked into this same black hole.   I personally don't think so but willing to listen. 

 
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