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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)

jvdesigns2002 said:
 If anything--the last bubble allowed the super wealthy to come back in the the markets and purchase things for fractions of the dollar while the small and middle class people were struggling to get back on track.  
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You can thank the ZIRP policy in place for years for this one.  

And, like you, I get frustrated with some of the things that happened at about that time, though it's certain all the big banks that were helped were caught with their pants down - they didn't see the credit panic coming.  GM is frustrating - the unions were made whole and propped up while bondholder rights were abrogated.  In the not too distant past HSBC got away with a fine for washing clean billions in cartel money under the "too big to prosecute" banner.  Absolutely outrageous behavior by the govt.

 
I've got a bit of gold in my portfolio, but no silver. For those in the precious metals trade, which has better long term appreciation at these levels? 

 
skycriesmary said:
I've got a bit of gold in my portfolio, but no silver. For those in the precious metals trade, which has better long term appreciation at these levels? 
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Recycling of silver has impacted the market considerably, imo.  I have a small amount on, but it's done next to nothing good or bad.  Just a tight trading range.  I don't know propels it higher because the argument that it should keep pace with gold is stale and inaccurate over the last 5ish years.  

Wish I had bought more JNUG when I did.  :kicksrock:

 
bshell27 said:
What do I do with 1600 nickels?

seriously though, what happened?
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Typical Canadian resource story (playing out now in weed stocks).  Management/bankers got too aggressive with capital raises and issuing more shares which pissed off a lot of the legacy investors at the same time their underlying commodity came under immense pressure.  Cobalt prices downticked from the low-40s to $12ish and the absolute worst time.  Everybody underestimated the supply response from the artisan miners.  

Conic is a good and cheap play on nickel and really one of the only investments out there that represents a pure play with leverage to higher prices.  That said, I'm not seeing anything pushing nickel prices higher today or tomorrow.  

Still believe in the thesis of EVs driving demand in due time but to date, EVs have been slower to penetrate the market than was expected.   

 
General Malaise said:
Recycling of silver has impacted the market considerably, imo.  I have a small amount on, but it's done next to nothing good or bad.  Just a tight trading range.  I don't know propels it higher because the argument that it should keep pace with gold is stale and inaccurate over the last 5ish years.  

Wish I had bought more JNUG when I did.  :kicksrock:
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Thanks for the reply. Tempted to add to GLD, but man do these prices look frothy (like everything right now). I'm looking for a hedge, but nothing is appealing and I refuse to spin the TVIX wheel.

 
eaganwildcats said:
Time to catch the knife. 
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After the announcement of the licensing deal, the stock showed remarkable strength, blasting away several key resistance levels (50MA, 200MA; ~.80 resistance) with ease on huge volume. Since the stock failed to close above the psychologically important $1 threshold on both 27/12 and 30/12 after having climbed as high as $1.18 intraday, it seems possible that there will be a pullback to the ~.80 resistance level (now big support) and a consolidation between .80 and $1 until further fundamental catalysts materialize.
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This was from one of those Seeking Alpha articles. Seemed like a reasonable expectation to me.

I would assume your next catalyst would be further results announcements or BLA filing? Maybe approval? I don't know if filings move the needle or not. 

 
I haven't been making a lot of trades or posting them but here's what I bought 4Q;

UBER $26.99

BIIB $280

LYFT $41

NVDA $201

Sold a little AAPL around $290.  Might regret it but it's a triple and needed to take some off the table.

GLGB's

 
skycriesmary said:
Thanks for the reply. Tempted to add to GLD, but man do these prices look frothy (like everything right now). I'm looking for a hedge, but nothing is appealing and I refuse to spin the TVIX wheel.
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I personally buy both silver and gold. I generally do a 4.5-1 value ratio in favor of gold in regards to how much I spend.  For approximately every $400-500 worth of gold that I buy--I buy $100 worth of silver.   If you are looking to purchase precious metals to hedge your larger investments in the stock market--the frothy prices shouldn't intimidate you as much as they are. Remember--you're not buying precious metals to get rich--you're buying them as in insurance policy to not go poor in case of market corrections or turmoil.  If you lose money on precious metals--you're probably making greater money in your other investments.

 
Missles just hit Asad Air base in Iraq where US troops are.  Iran claiming responsibility--so now Iraq is becomming a battleground between Iran and the USA. Let's see if our markets actually understand that ish just got real tomorrow.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Missles just hit Asad Air base in Iraq where US troops are.  Iran claiming responsibility--so now Iraq is becomming a battleground between Iran and the USA. Let's see if our markets actually understand that ish just got real tomorrow.  
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Gold up $29, pierced $1600.  Be interested to see what it does the next few days.

Do you own Palladium?  Boss just sold a brick of it before the holidays for ~$175K or so.  Shipping that was....stressful.  

 
General Malaise said:
Gold up $29, pierced $1600.  Be interested to see what it does the next few days.

Do you own Palladium?  Boss just sold a brick of it before the holidays for ~$175K or so.  Shipping that was....stressful.  
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Being that I work in jewelry--I do have a tiny bit of palladium but not very much at all.  My investment portfolio is roughly 40-45% real estate, 30-35% stocks and 20% other (predominately precious metals, but I do have some collectibles, and a minor exposure to bitcoin). With that said--regardless of my portfolio-I just hope that the governments of both countries find cooler heads and work on de-escalating things--as the current path of how things are going is not looking good.  

 
35% of my worth is in IAU... It’s recommended to keep your gold allocation to under 5% :lmao:

I got aggressive when gold was printing a 12, this brings it to 16. If I didn’t intend on holding gold for the long term, this could be a good spot to sell.

Personally, my gold thesis from a while ago was spot on, and I’m pretty sure a lot of smart money sees it the same. Iran is a blip on the radar for why gold has been soaring (hence a good reason to sell for short term players here). Obviously if massive war breaks out, then Iran becomes important to gold, I’m just hopeful that doesn’t happen. My thesis will play out regardless, I don’t need a bunch of people to die to have it skyrocket, that’s some bad juju.

 
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that I would not be shocked if the US stock market ended tomorrow slightly down/flat/or even up. I said it earlier in this thread that recently our markets seem to not factor risk into their pricing—-and this escalation in the Middle East has the potential to turn into something massively bad.  A normal market that prices risk into it’s value would and should have a moderate to dramatic drop—and I’m not sure if our markets are capable of acting and reacting in a rational and logical manner.  As long as the markets don’t get hammered tomorrow—I think I’m personally going to take some profits on some of my stocks  and reduce my exposure to the reality that the market will eventually have to realize and factor in.  

I’d rather bow out a tad too early than get stuck being exposed in the market a little too late.  The markets have been on a very good run and even if I leave some potential profits on the table—-I’m good with it.  I know the news is just breaking and this is a fluid situation—but how are the rest of you going to act (if at all)?   

 
Was watching futures for a chuckle, obviously they bounce right back. We basically have an equity market that can’t be stopped. Investors deep down truly believe they can not get hurt in this market. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Was watching futures for a chuckle, obviously they bounce right back. We basically have an equity market that can’t be stopped. Investors deep down truly believe they can not get hurt in this market. 
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The cognitive dissonance that this market is showing has been enjoyable thus far—but at some point it has to end and reality has to set in.  It’s starting to eerily feel like how people felt about the housing market before that bubble bursted to me.  The notion that real estate could actually drop in value was not taken into account and thats how are markets are acting now.  

The Middle East getting a ton more complicated is the best case scenario—and this could last for many years.  Worst case scenario—we could be looking at the start of some major global conflict.  Even with those two scenarios being dramatically bad—our markets are acting pretty “meh” —which I find hugely concerning.    Maybe I’m wrong and this thing keeps going up for a while—but my level of comfort has dramatically shifted the past day or two.   I have to give you props—because I feel like you and I have been recommending exposure to the precious metals for a while now.   They might not feel sexy to own the vast majority of the time—but they certainly do provide levels of comfort when the market acts irrationally or badly.  

 
There is absolutely zero fear. Unlike a lot of gold bugs though, I’m not a world is ending kind of guy. I like gold bc A) it has been a store of value for thousands of years & B) it can’t just be printed out of thin air.

I haven’t bought gold to hedge against conflict in the ME nor volatility in the market. I’ve bought it to hedge against the bankers. Big banks got us into a big mess a decade ago. Bigger even more powerful bankers solved the problem and continue to solve every problem we have.

They can print us out of any mess (the market believes this), but they can’t print gold, & gold has had value for longer than basically anything I can think of. The more they print, the better for gold. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
There is absolutely zero fear. Unlike a lot of gold bugs though, I’m not a world is ending kind of guy. I like gold bc A) it has been a store of value for thousands of years & B) it can’t just be printed out of thin air.

I haven’t bought gold to hedge against conflict in the ME nor volatility in the market. I’ve bought it to hedge against the bankers. Big banks got us into a big mess a decade ago. Bigger even more powerful bankers solved the problem and continue to solve every problem we have.

They can print us out of any mess (the market believes this), but they can’t print gold, & gold has had value for longer than basically anything I can think of. The more they print, the better for gold. 
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Totally agree. I also love gold in a world where countries are diluting currencies to no end, across the board negative interest rates, and frankly—I like owning the hard asset knowing that I’m not trusting a random CEO or a board with my investment. The fact that it also has upside in case of economic or geopolitical issues is just icing on the cake in my opinion.  

Also—apparently a Ukrainian Boeing 737 just crashed in Tehran. They are saying its mechanical issues—but I’m not sure if I have ever heard the cause of a plane crash being disclosed shortly after it happened. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
The precious metals have been quietly very good for me.  Part of me wants to profit take and part of me wants to firmly hold.  The amount of global sovereign debt was my main motivator for buying precious metals with geopolitical events acting as a potential accelerator of higher prices.  The attack on Iran has the potential to lead into greater geo-political events.  How are other precious metal investors handling todays run up?  
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smiling and holding. Want to buy more, but will wait for a dip

 
culdeus said:
Otc ticker cost money to post in real time.  You go to a place that doesn't trade them they give you hours old data that may or may not be accurate beyond price. 
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yep. Was trying to figure out what swag was.

I think he was talking about Fidelity and if you an account there, trading data is real time.

 
cosjobs said:
yep. Was trying to figure out what swag was.

I think he was talking about Fidelity and if you an account there, trading data is real time.
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But now I see that's not what you said. I  think you are saying if fidelity does not ttrade the stock themselves, the data they provide might be old?

 
Trump speaking at 11 on Iran.

I believe 97% of his public speeches are an effort to jawbone the market higher, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he talks big then says something to soothe his overlords.

Who knows... Market seems to think okay this is over, phew!

 
Minutes after our markets open on the morning after a country shoots a dozen ballistic missiles at a couple bases that our troops occupy--and threatens to shoot more missiles at Israel and Dubai--our markets go UP.   If this isn't clear evidence that our markets are refusing to price in any risk in them--no matter how clear and transparent that risk is--I don't know what is.  I'm selling some of my stock holdings today as I refuse to play with fire.  There is some major financial engineering going on.

 
This market is just plain nuts.  No idea how it is up this morning, saw it was down 300+ last night.

Apple basically doubled on no earnings growth last year.

I see the what is your age and 401K constantly being bumped up and I see someone considering using a 6% HELOC to invest and I'm pretty sure this a good time to start taking some profits off the table.  I sold my CRM, half stake in NVDIA and JPM yesterday.  Probably taking some more off the table today.  I'm pretty much all bull - I have 90% of my assets in equities and don't think the US Economy is in much recession trouble for the next 12-18 months or so, but it's been a helluva good run for this guy, so no reason to get super greedy, imho.

Still have about 8-10 individual stocks, still eyeing one or two buys, but I'll sit tight for a bit.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
This was from one of those Seeking Alpha articles. Seemed like a reasonable expectation to me.

I would assume your next catalyst would be further results announcements or BLA filing? Maybe approval? I don't know if filings move the needle or not. 
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Yeap testing 8 today. Picking some more up here I think. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Trump speaking at 11 on Iran.

I believe 97% of his public speeches are an effort to jawbone the market higher, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he talks big then says something to soothe his overlords.

Who knows... Market seems to think okay this is over, phew!
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Always buy before a Trump presser. Won't work all the time, but it is a pretty sound strategy, imo. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Minutes after our markets open on the morning after a country shoots a dozen ballistic missiles at a couple bases that our troops occupy--and threatens to shoot more missiles at Israel and Dubai--our markets go UP.   If this isn't clear evidence that our markets are refusing to price in any risk in them--no matter how clear and transparent that risk is--I don't know what is.  I'm selling some of my stock holdings today as I refuse to play with fire.  There is some major financial engineering going on.
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IMO you're focused on the wrong "risks"- while wars are horrific and there are obviously increased risks in many things they don't really move the needle on risk that is relevant to the stock market (some say it's actually a good thing).

In any event, I think we're all clear on your stance, not sure what you're trying to accomplish by stating the same things over and over again. If you think you're right and the market is wrong just go ahead and sell.  :shrug:

 
humpback said:
IMO you're focused on the wrong "risks"- while wars are horrific and there are obviously increased risks in many things they don't really move the needle on risk that is relevant to the stock market (some say it's actually a good thing).

In any event, I think we're all clear on your stance, not sure what you're trying to accomplish by stating the same things over and over again. If you think you're right and the market is wrong just go ahead and sell.  :shrug:
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A lot has happened the past two to three days—and discussion about how we feel the markets will react as a result of it is something that should be invited in a stock thread. If you don’t like my posts—go ahead and ignore me—but I refuse to be chastised for discussing my thoughts on the stock market in a polite way in a stock thread.  

Our fed has been artificially and unnecessarily pumping up our stock market for no good reason—our markets were healthy enough without their intervention .  This has created a mindset were investors are overlooking all sorts of risks and factors in the market—and paying insane prices for stocks that do not have earnings that justify anything near the prices they are commanding.  The market could very well keep rising—but any sort of conversation that motivates people to think through their investments more thoroughly should be encouraged and not frowned upon.   You are the only person that seems to be annoyed by it.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
A lot has happened the past two to three days—and discussion about how we feel the markets will react as a result of it is something that should be invited in a stock thread. If you don’t like my posts—go ahead and ignore me—but I refuse to be chastised for discussing my thoughts on the stock market in a polite way in a stock thread.  

Our fed has been artificially and unnecessarily pumping up our stock market for no good reason—our markets were healthy enough without their intervention .  This has created a mindset were investors are overlooking all sorts of risks and factors in the market—and paying insane prices for stocks that do not have earnings that justify anything near the prices they are commanding.  The market could very well keep rising—but any sort of conversation that motivates people to think through their investments more thoroughly should be encouraged and not frowned upon.   You are the only person that seems to be annoyed by it.  
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I mean, I addressed your point on risk at first so you're being a bit touchy with "chastised"- I think the things that have happened in the past two to three days don't move the needle much at all for the things that are important to the markets in the long run. The other stuff has been going on for a long time, and while I share some of those concerns this issue with Iran isn't going to be what derails the markets IMO- it will likely increase volatility short term but it doesn't fundamentally change anything longer term.

Obviously you're free to do whatever you would like, but you seem a bit stressed out and I can't imagine posting the same stuff over and over is helping so I gave my opinion. To each his own.

 
Welp...to the moon?  I don't think a down move is imminent...however don't be surprised if over the next weeks/months there is a move down towards $SPY $285ish.  Obviously...would reassess, but the mkt would remain bullish at that spot.  I'd likely be a buyer.

We are EXTREMELY overbought.

That's not to scare anyone out of a position...and again...I'm talking weeks and months.

 
siffoin said:
Welp...to the moon?  I don't think a down move is imminent...however don't be surprised if over the next weeks/months there is a move down towards $SPY $285ish.  Obviously...would reassess, but the mkt would remain bullish at that spot.  I'd likely be a buyer.

We are EXTREMELY overbought.

That's not to scare anyone out of a position...and again...I'm talking weeks and months.
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Isn't this a textbook meltup over the last 3-4 months? 

 
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The agony of missing a 30% move in one day, almost pulled the trigger at 8.75 this morning.  Better than going the other way though.    :wall:

CLVS

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
A lot has happened the past two to three days—and discussion about how we feel the markets will react as a result of it is something that should be invited in a stock thread. If you don’t like my posts—go ahead and ignore me—but I refuse to be chastised for discussing my thoughts on the stock market in a polite way in a stock thread.  

Our fed has been artificially and unnecessarily pumping up our stock market for no good reason—our markets were healthy enough without their intervention .  This has created a mindset were investors are overlooking all sorts of risks and factors in the market—and paying insane prices for stocks that do not have earnings that justify anything near the prices they are commanding.  The market could very well keep rising—but any sort of conversation that motivates people to think through their investments more thoroughly should be encouraged and not frowned upon.   You are the only person that seems to be annoyed by it.  
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humpback said:
I mean, I addressed your point on risk at first so you're being a bit touchy with "chastised"- I think the things that have happened in the past two to three days don't move the needle much at all for the things that are important to the markets in the long run. The other stuff has been going on for a long time, and while I share some of those concerns this issue with Iran isn't going to be what derails the markets IMO- it will likely increase volatility short term but it doesn't fundamentally change anything longer term.

Obviously you're free to do whatever you would like, but you seem a bit stressed out and I can't imagine posting the same stuff over and over is helping so I gave my opinion. To each his own.
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You are both really good guys and I do not understand this spat. Yes, jv could not have been so repetitious, but Hback could have been more diplomatic.

This has always been a very amenable thread and a bit of a solace from other corners of the internet. How about we agree to disagree on this minor issue.

 
I really have to swallow hard sending off my 2019 401K funds into this market.  I always do it in late December or early January.  Typically late December but got slowed down with a death in the family.  Last year I got a great December swoon to buy in cheap, seems as though I'll be paying top dollar this year.

 
Shula-holic said:
I really have to swallow hard sending off my 2019 401K funds into this market.  I always do it in late December or early January.  Typically late December but got slowed down with a death in the family.  Last year I got a great December swoon to buy in cheap, seems as though I'll be paying top dollar this year.
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Why not dollar cost average it this year?

 
pecorino said:
Why not dollar cost average it this year?
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Seasonal business with large capital required to operate.  I try to take distributions now on what excess I can.  As a general rule I don't have initial operating capital back until Q4 each year.  Then honestly I'm so slammed it's December before I get around to it.

 
The Lost One said:
Looking to start getting involved in investing.  Brokerage firms?  Who's the best?  TD Ameritrade?  

Anyone ever hear of Motley Fool Stock Advisor?
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https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
 

It’s a bit contrary to this thread which is mostly about individual stocks, but if just starting out I’d recommend starting with the above. Vanguard is a good firm for such a strategy. I like hanging out here, but I’m only ever really playing with at most ~10% of my invested assets. 

 
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