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Stock Thread (8 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
It's the central banks, it is that simple, imo. 

Here; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL 

So the balance sheet went from $1T to $4T, they tried reducing it, the market tanks, they obviously reverse course, and now we're closing back in on where it was before they tried to normalize ( :lmao:  ) it. GREATEST ECONOMY WE'VE EVER SEEN!

You'll notice, when they started pumping it back up again in September to provide liquidity to the repo market (really just covert QE 4), the market started flying again... And wallah, we're up 10% since their pump began. 

#GOLD (they can't print that from thin air)
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Oh I agree. Ive been slowly moving some of my assets into precious metals for many years now.  You and I have been mentioning that play for a while here on this thread.  It’s done me well so far—and I do think that once the market loses some of its momentum from the Coronavirus, once people realize the financial engineering that you brought up from the central bank side, not to mention that there is still a lot of geopolitical risk out there—that something has to give.   I do think that if the market pushes its way past the $30k Dow level, that this possible correction might happen later rather than sooner.  I’m not a chartist by any means..but it seems like anytime the market gets close to that $30k level—it kinda bounces back and reapproaches it again.   That could be a natural resistance level for it to go through—but it also could be a resistance level as a  pseudo-floor should it clear it.  

 
Bossman said:
Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag. 

Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.
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Yeah, I was considering it too earlier this week, but already have a bit of GDX and IAU. I'm reluctant to get in now as it's went up 6% just this week. Now if I can get back in around $ 18.50-19? Sure. 

 
siffoin said:
I'll respond back tomorrow.  
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Ok.  As I started to think about this - I came to the healthy conclusion that what would be necessary is a Chapter on Siff’s Technical Trading 101.  But who has the time for that and who wants to read my ramblings - No one. So let me begin with a Cliff Notes Version.

  1. Everything I do I’m looking at it from a technical perspective.  Why? Charts don’t lie. People do. So I trust the charts more than I do some analyst. 
  2. I have spent years developing a series of charts and indicators that work for me.  1000’s of hours staring at these charts (likely 10's of 1000's). Because of that, I can easily identify when things seem in or out of order.  I wouldn’t expect anyone else to have the same level of understanding of my charts that I do. Often I look at someone else's charts, I don’t have any clue of their interpretation.  And I realize many people probably feel that same towards my own work. 
  3. My work focuses mostly around TRENDs.  Is $XYZ generally moving up (Bull Trend) or is $XYZ generally moving down (Bear Trend)?  Trends are related to specific Time Frames (TF) too. A TF might be 1 minute (the price movement of $XYZ over a minute = 1 bar print); 1 hour; 1 day; 1 week; 1 month.  I guess you could go out further, but TFs longer than 1 month are of ZERO help to any investor.
  4. The longer the TF the more weight and power it holds.  So a 1 Month TF > 1 Week > 1 Day > 1 Hour > 5 Min > 1 Min.  There can be conflicting trends on the same $XYZ depending on the TF.  IE: The Monthly Trend could be Bullish but the Daily Trend could be Bearish.
  5. Always pay attention to the TF > than the one you are following for your primary investment decision.  What I mean by this is - let’s say $XYZ gives a bear trend (short) signal on an Hourly TF. However, the Daily TF is Bullish.  In this scenario we might expect $XYZ to decline over the next few days (maybe a week or 2), to a support level on the Daily TF.  THAT spot represents a BUY. An aggressive trader might look to profit by shorting $XYZ on the Hourly TF down to the Daily TF Support Level, where he would close the Hourly TF Short position, and go long.  It’s not a game of perfect here. It’s a war that requires patience, skill, attentiveness, and a willingness to get scarred along the way.
  6. Moving Average Lines - represent an average of Price over Time. I use moving average lines as a way to represent Value; Fair Value; and Over Value (That’s a real basic explanation). So 3 Moving Average Lines (MAL).
  7. Price within a TF has a very natural progression.  In simple terms it WANTS to hug around Fair Value. Now in a Bull Trend Price will move up and towards the Over Valued MAL.  That is expected. However when price extends beyond the Over Valued MAL naturally it will want to correct. When it extends far beyond an Over Valued MAL for an extended period of time when the correction comes it is probable to be deeper than a normal correction.  And by correction I’m talking about correcting back to healthy levels of support within the trend. Obviously any correction phase runs the risk of flipping the trend. So imo, the best, healthiest and most profitable moves are when we have a Bull Trend that rises between a Fair Valued and Over Valued MAL - not extending too far above the Over Valued MAL for any length of time and corrective phases are moves back to the Fair Value MAL or just below that.
  8. Whew.  Let’s let that all soak in for a second.
  9. As I explained above.  The Monthly Chart is the One to Rule Them All.  While the Bear Market of 2008-09 bottomed in March 09 - the current Monthly Trend did not confirm  bullish until Dec 2010. However since then - the Bull Trend has remained in tact. Even though there have been corrective periods within that trend. May 2011-Dec 2011; May 2015-Feb 2016; May 2018-Dec 2018 - would all be examples of corrective phases within the current Bull market Trend on a Monthly TF.
  10. Currently, the market is extended far beyond the Over Valued MAL.  Further than it has ever been for the past 30 years. In addition it has hopped above and outside the 10 year Bull Market Channel for the past 3 months (something I’ve never seen).  On top of that there are a variety of cycles that are coming together all suggesting the odds favor a corrective move soonish.
  11. I’m in no way saying if there is a corrective move that it will flip the market to a Bearish Trend.  What I am suggesting is that a corrective move is necessary and healthy in order to maintain the current Bull Trend. And that by recognizing the dangerousness of these current conditions one might better prepare himself for the emotional battle that is potentially on the horizon.  And not only that- profit . Trust me a move down towards $SPY 290ish and lots of people will be ####ting their pants. Corrective moves aren’t fun even when you are on the winning side - at least to me because they bring in the possibility of a LT flip of the market trend (From Bull to Bear).  My life is a hell of a lot easier in a bull trend of extended irrational exuberance. Because I don’t know what the future will bring, I acknowledge I could be wrong. However, my present interpretation of my charts suggests the conditions are ripe for a corrective move sometime in the nearish future, and I’m looking how to protect and preserve my gains without having to panic out of positions if such a move occurs, and have a plan in place if value presents to take advantage of that when most people won’t.
  12. $GYPR is meant as a joke and a heads up.  Basically saying PAY ATTENTION.
 
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siffoin said:
Ok.  As I started to think about this - I came to the healthy conclusion that what would be necessary is a Chapter on Siff’s Technical Trading 101.  But who has the time for that and who wants to read my ramblings - No one. So let me begin with a Cliff Notes Version.

  1. Everything I do I’m looking at it from a technical perspective.  Why? Charts don’t lie. People do. So I trust the charts more than I do some analyst. 
  2. I have spent years developing a series of charts and indicators that work for me.  1000’s of hours staring at these charts (likely 10's of 1000's). Because of that, I can easily identify when things seem in or out of order.  I wouldn’t expect anyone else to have the same level of understanding of my charts that I do. Often I look at someone else's charts, I don’t have any clue of their interpretation.  And I realize many people probably feel that same towards my own work. 
  3. My work focuses mostly around TRENDs.  Is $XYZ generally moving up (Bull Trend) or is $XYZ generally moving down (Bear Trend)?  Trends are related to specific Time Frames (TF) too. A TF might be 1 minute (the price movement of $XYZ over a minute = 1 bar print); 1 hour; 1 day; 1 week; 1 month.  I guess you could go out further, but TFs longer than 1 month are of ZERO help to any investor.
  4. The longer the TF the more weight and power it holds.  So a 1 Month TF > 1 Week > 1 Day > 1 Hour > 5 Min > 1 Min.  There can be conflicting trends on the same $XYZ depending on the TF.  IE: The Monthly Trend could be Bullish but the Daily Trend could be Bearish.
  5. Always pay attention to the TF > than the one you are following for your primary investment decision.  What I mean by this is - let’s say $XYZ gives a bear trend (short) signal on an Hourly TF. However, the Daily TF is Bullish.  In this scenario we might expect $XYZ to decline over the next few days (maybe a week or 2), to a support level on the Daily TF.  THAT spot represents a BUY. An aggressive trader might look to profit by shorting $XYZ on the Hourly TF down to the Daily TF Support Level, where he would close the Hourly TF Short position, and go long.  It’s not a game of perfect here. It’s a war that requires patience, skill, attentiveness, and a willingness to get scarred along the way.
  6. Moving Average Lines - represent an average of Price over Time. I use moving average lines as a way to represent Value; Fair Value; and Over Value (That’s a real basic explanation). So 3 Moving Average Lines (MAL).
  7. Price within a TF has a very natural progression.  In simple terms it WANTS to hug around Fair Value. Now in a Bull Trend Price will move up and towards the Over Valued MAL.  That is expected. However when price extends beyond the Over Valued MAL naturally it will want to correct. When it extends far beyond an Over Valued MAL for an extended period of time when the correction comes it is probable to be deeper than a normal correction.  And by correction I’m talking about correcting back to healthy levels of support within the trend. Obviously any correction phase runs the risk of flipping the trend. So imo, the best, healthiest and most profitable moves are when we have a Bull Trend that rises between a Fair Valued and Over Valued MAL - not extending too far above the Over Valued MAL for any length of time and corrective phases are moves back to the Fair Value MAL or just below that.
  8. Whew.  Let’s let that all soak in for a second.
  9. As I explained above.  The Monthly Chart is the One to Rule Them All.  While the Bear Market of 2008-09 bottomed in March 09 - the current Monthly Trend did not confirm  bullish until Dec 2010. However since then - the Bull Trend has remained in tact. Even though there have been corrective periods within that trend. May 2011-Dec 2011; May 2015-Feb 2016; May 2018-Dec 2018 - would all be examples of corrective phases within the current Bull market Trend on a Monthly TF.
  10. Currently, the market is extended far beyond the Over Valued MAL.  Further than it has ever been for the past 30 years. In addition it has hopped above and outside the 10 year Bull Market Channel for the past 3 months (something I’ve never seen).  On top of that there are a variety of cycles that are coming together all suggesting the odds favor a corrective move soonish.
  11. I’m in no way saying if there is a corrective move that it will flip the market to a Bearish Trend.  What I am suggesting is that a corrective move is necessary and healthy in order to maintain the current Bull Trend. And that by recognizing the dangerousness of these current conditions one might better prepare himself for the emotional battle that is potentially on the horizon.  And not only that- profit . Trust me a move down towards $SPY 290ish and lots of people will be ####ting their pants. Corrective moves aren’t fun even when you are on the winning side - at least to me because they bring in the possibility of a LT flip of the market trend (From Bull to Bear).  My life is a hell of a lot easier in a bull trend of extended irrational exuberance. Because I don’t know what the future will bring, I acknowledge I could be wrong. However, my present interpretation of my charts suggests the conditions are ripe for a corrective move sometime in the nearish future, and I’m looking how to protect and preserve my gains without having to panic out of positions if such a move occurs, and have a plan in place if value presents to take advantage of that when most people won’t.
  12. $GYPR is meant as a joke and a heads up.  Basically saying PAY ATTENTION.
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This is why I ####### love FBG’s.  Never in a million years would one expect to get posts like this from a make believe football site!   

I’m going to need to reread this a few times to wrap my head around it but thank you sif for taking the time to post it and letting us crawl around in your thought process for a bit.  

 
Gawain said:
Added 500 shares of GLD today. I’m risk off for the next 30 days.
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I had a boat load of cash sitting on the sidelines and after reading COS portfolio decided to get some gold.

Turns out today was a day late. "Revised" Limit order still hasn't triggered. I'll wait for a better entry point ... if there ever is one.

 
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Returned 7% on GOLD this week, almost want to sell, almost. 

ETA:

I think if it closes 3 days in a row over $20, you'll want to enter. Right now it is at the top of its range which is a dangerous entry point. 

 
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Big thanks to Siff for his post and for continuing to venture into this thread and be active from time to time. There aren't enough  :thumbup:  emojis to apply to your posts! Those same :thumbup: emojis go out to all of you willing to take the time to explain your positions and educate us with those explanations. 

 
Sneegor said:
Maybe @siffoin can do some technical analysis on GOLD and CYDY 
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$GOLD might be a good example of what I'm trying to explain.  How when price moves beyond an Over-Valued MAL it will naturally correct back to Fair/Value.  (* Caution - I don't use StockCharts for my primary charts, but subscribe cause I like to play around with them and it's easier to do that with their system than mine).  I did a simple annotation here.

$GOLD

$CYDY is a gamble type of play.  Charts don't really work.

 
siffoin said:
$GOLD might be a good example of what I'm trying to explain.  How when price moves beyond an Over-Valued MAL it will naturally correct back to Fair/Value.  (* Caution - I don't use StockCharts for my primary charts, but subscribe cause I like to play around with them and it's easier to do that with their system than mine).  I did a simple annotation here.

$GOLD

$CYDY is a gamble type of play.  Charts don't really work.
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Wow, so it's WAY over valued at the current rate, as fair value is around $17.73? That's a huge premium.

 
pecorino said:
Heard one of the Najarian brotherscalls  pimp the January 17 calls of SPCE back in late December saying that some kind of PR or news was going to drop. I bought some and the stock did nothing, hovering around $11.50 plus or minus a quarter so I figured he was blowing smoke. Since the strike date was coming up this Friday, I dumped them last week on 1/8, salvaging some of my premium. Of course, I couldn't help but follow the ticker and you can guess what happened. No embellishment necessary: within minutes of me dumping the options, the share price began creeping up (this was the afternoon of 1/8) and then there were some decent pops and indeed a PR event that sent the stock massively higher. I lost $600 on the trade. Had I held another week, I'd be up about $4000 or so.

Out of bitterness, I have not really followed what the PR was that sent the price upwards. I tend to think it is a temporary thing and there's no way I'd touch the stock even if I had not gone through the trauma of the past week. It's still very speculative and very volatile. You get the Branson name, and it is kind of a cool idea, and of course it could be a counter-intuitive stock like Tesla which rises because people think it's a sexy company and they buy it. But, again, I think it is gambling more than investing at this point.
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Whoops. SPCE rocketing.

 
Bossman said:
Alright, if you like a Feb put then here's one I've been keeping to myself...

AGRX trading above $4 .... selling Feb 21 $2.50 puts at .45 

Fair warning ... about to announce FDA approval on product ... which is why this is so rich with only 8 days to expiration.

Sell 20 put contracts and take the $900.

You put up $4100 to profit $900. That right there is juicy.

Your risk is if FDA does not approve and stock drops below $2.05 ... which I could see this falling to $1.50 in that scenario.
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Nobody else here got a piece of this?

Seems this one panned out for me but I'll admit, was risky. Sold 80 put contracts that paid me $3800. 2/21 exp / strike @ $2.50.  

..... 2/14 AGRX - FDA approved for a new contraceptive for women ... as I understand, a weekly patch vs a pill every day.

Announcement of approval was made after hours Friday which I assume is what limited the stock price from moving much. 

I expect this to shoot up when markets open Tues a.m.

Twirla Approval

I grabbed 1000 shares just before the announcement. Probably grab some more Tuesday.

I'm a noob, so please do your own reasearch .... but imo Some here might want to grab a few shares pre-market if possible.

 
Otis said:
Cross posting this here:

Stupid question maybe:

If we’re confident that the market will continue to go up over the long haul, why shouldn’t I be putting all or a large chunk of my portfolio into an ETF like UDOW, Pro Shares Ultra Pro Dow 30, which tracks the Dow but gives you 3x the movement in either direction.  I look back just 10 years on that and if I got 15 or 20 years of that return before I retire, I’d retire a pretty wealthy dude. 
 

What am I missing here?  Why doesn’t everyone do this?
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There is some potential merit to the idea of ‘lifecycle investing‘. That is, when you are young and don’t have as much money lever up so your exposure to the market is relatively consistent through time (paraphrasing but that’s my understanding). Given where you are in your career and your portfolio size likely not recommended.

I’ve been thinking of trying something similar to what’s discussed here but haven’t had the time to fully wrap my head around it.

 
$INO claiming they now have a vaccine for Corona ... just hours after having access to the virus.

Might be worth throwing a few bucks at Tuesday.

 
[icon] said:
At what point do you start having a say in operations? You've got to be one of the larger shareholders 
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Not even close, I don't think.  

Our CEO is the most important advisor to CYDY and I have his ear.  So indirectly, I got that going for me.

 
skycriesmary said:
Wow, so it's WAY over valued at the current rate, as fair value is around $17.73? That's a huge premium.
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That’s right.  On the Daily TF $GOLD is over-extended.  Does that mean it’s going to drop? Odds are that either it will drop back down to at least the Green MAL or down to Value.  Another possibility is that it stays flat for a period of time and the MALs catch-up to price.

Here’s the thing.  In a perfect world $GOLD would have been on your permanent “shopping list.”  And you would have taken at least an initial entry back in June - when the trend first turned Bullish.  Had you done that, you’d have a pretty nice return already secured and you wouldn’t need to worry so much about it’s short-term (over) Value.

This is where investors can wind up getting caught in the emotionalism of a stock position.

$GOLD is likely to go higher from here however in the short term don’t be surprised if there is a price decline towards $17.50-$18.50ish.

Where people get in trouble is they do things like this.

  1. See the big run on $GOLD and think to themselves “I want a piece of that action.”
  2. They go long at $19.75, but they are going to be smart about it so they put in a 10% stop loss.
  3. Unfortunately, they purchased $GOLD at a price where it is technically over-valued - and they watch in dismay as it drops towards their Stop-Loss at 17.75.  They get stopped out and think “Ok...well at least I was smart and took my lumps before it got too bad.” However, the point they get stopped out is pretty much the level where $GOLD is technically fair valued. And because $GOLD is in a strong Bull Trend they watch from the side as it then rallies to $25.
  4. “I suck”; “You just can’t time the market”; “I’d be better just hiring a financial adviser” --NO...you failed because you didn’t recognize value in relation to the trend AND you set an arbitrary stop loss that had ZERO relation to current price and current Trend (ie: your stop loss happened to be the exact level where price and value meet which in a bull market equals a BUY signal).
This is why you build a shopping list of potential targets and wait patiently for the stock, it’s trend and value come to you.  

Here’s the other thing.  No One knows the future. Odds favor the scenarios I’ve laid out. But this time I could be wrong. Give me xnumber of similar setups and the odds would favor my approach at being profitable many more times than not.  It's not a game of perfect.  It's a game of being patient and smart.

 
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culdeus said:
This is like two weeks old no?
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Not that I'm aware.

... unless the media is also very late to the party:

INO Corona

INO Motley Fool

Quote

"The bad news is that Inovio has never actually developed a commercial-stage vaccine. Despite being in business for 40 years, the company is only now on the cusp of generating late-stage data for one of its DNA-based therapies. Specifically, Inovio is slated to roll out top-line data for VGX-3100 as a treatment for cervical dysplasia in the fourth-quarter of 2020.

Another worrying sign is that this isn't the first time Inovio's stock has skyrocketed in response to an infectious disease threat. In 2016, for instance, the biotech's shares took flight after it announced plans to tackle the Zika virus. Per the company's latest clinical update in early 2020, however, its Zika virus product candidate hasn't even made it past a phase 1 trial yet. So investors should probably take this hype over a COVID-19 virus vaccine with a huge grain of salt.  

Time to buy?

If your sole purpose is to own a company likely to benefit from the COVID-19 threat, Inovio probably isn't your best bet. The company has never brought a product to market in four decades, much to the detriment of long-suffering shareholders. Since going public, in fact, Inovio's stock has produced a negative return on capital of 92.7%. Perhaps this story will change for the better with a positive late-stage readout for VGX-3100 later this year. But until then, investors should probably curb their enthusiasm. "

 
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Bossman said:
Not that I'm aware.

... unless the media is also very late to the party:

INO Corona

INO Motley Fool

Quote

"The bad news is that Inovio has never actually developed a commercial-stage vaccine. Despite being in business for 40 years, the company is only now on the cusp of generating late-stage data for one of its DNA-based therapies. Specifically, Inovio is slated to roll out top-line data for VGX-3100 as a treatment for cervical dysplasia in the fourth-quarter of 2020.

Another worrying sign is that this isn't the first time Inovio's stock has skyrocketed in response to an infectious disease threat. In 2016, for instance, the biotech's shares took flight after it announced plans to tackle the Zika virus. Per the company's latest clinical update in early 2020, however, its Zika virus product candidate hasn't even made it past a phase 1 trial yet. So investors should probably take this hype over a COVID-19 virus vaccine with a huge grain of salt.  

Time to buy?

If your sole purpose is to own a company likely to benefit from the COVID-19 threat, Inovio probably isn't your best bet. The company has never brought a product to market in four decades, much to the detriment of long-suffering shareholders. Since going public, in fact, Inovio's stock has produced a negative return on capital of 92.7%. Perhaps this story will change for the better with a positive late-stage readout for VGX-3100 later this year. But until then, investors should probably curb their enthusiasm. "
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I had some money sitting around in one account and decided to buy a meager one hundred shares @ $3.25 each on the 7th of this month. Closed @ $4.15 last Friday. Did a little research and thought, why not get a few shares. As of now, planning on holding due to the coronavirus situation. Obviously I'm not looking to break the bank here, just maybe take some modest profit sometime down the line.  

ETA: wrote the closing number down wrong, posted $4.25 when it was actually $4.15

 
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The Lost One said:
Any of you guys subscribe to the Motley Fool?  They always feel like they have some available package for $2000, which they work down to $799 when you don't buy it away first. Seems like they're trying to prey in people's emotions but also that they seem to know what they're talking about. Just had a bull market package recently. 

Thoughts?
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They offer a number of investment newsletters.  I've never delved into them, but they don't seem to be groundbreaking.  If you read anything there it's Saul's investing board.  That guy has done 30+% for the last decade, at least.  

They also have some really wacky political boards.  Way wackier than here.

 
I may be off base here but In my opinion I can't put much more stock into Motley Fool than I can in  the usual Sports picks Touts

As Ed Norton in Motherless Brooklyn would say, "Steve-o, Steve-n, Steve-Steve, Steve to da Steve Steve"

Stop messing with my mind m'f'er

 
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Bossman said:
$INO claiming they now have a vaccine for Corona ... just hours after having access to the virus.

Might be worth throwing a few bucks at Tuesday.
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Wow ... didn't realize stock prices moved this early.

$INO already up quite a bit. $AGRX starting to climb.

How do these move before pre-market hours? 

 
Bossman said:
Wow ... didn't realize stock prices moved this early.

$INO already up quite a bit. $AGRX starting to climb.

How do these move before pre-market hours? 
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And now it’s down a couple percent. I don’t put much weight on after hours trading, myself. 

 
The Lost One said:
Any of you guys subscribe to the Motley Fool?  They always feel like they have some available package for $2000, which they work down to $799 when you don't buy it away first. Seems like they're trying to prey in people's emotions but also that they seem to know what they're talking about. Just had a bull market package recently. 

Thoughts?
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They at times offer gigantic amounts of airline points for signup offers.  I don't recall them being near that expensive.  The content was pretty crap except they turned me onto convertible bonds in the 2010 timeframe which worked out. 

 
dkp993 said:
This is why I ####### love FBG’s.  Never in a million years would one expect to get posts like this from a make believe football site!   

I’m going to need to reread this a few times to wrap my head around it but thank you sif for taking the time to post it and letting us crawl around in your thought process for a bit.  
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I've been reading @siffoin posts for many years.  He actually is the one who got me started writing put options to pick up stocks I was interested in during a down trend.

 
siffoin said:
Spitballin' here.  And the comments are just for free - and worth every penny you pay for them.

#1) The market is bullish.  IMO it would take some time for it to actually turn bearish. By some time, I don't mean hours or days or weeks...I'm talking months.

2) The bull market is extremely over-extended.  By extreme what I mean is I'm of the opinion that there has never been a time if our lives where the market has been this far out of whack in regards to price:value.  Technically - it is what I would consider ripe for some type of correction.  That doesn't mean today is a top.  Or tomorrow.  But I would suggest that soon, it would be "natural" for the market to begin some corrective move - just to get back in-line with the bullish trend.  For example if the $SPY were to drop 20 points...we'd still be WAY over-valued and my opinion wouldn't change.   A 15-20% correction wouldn't move the needle on the LT bull trend.  At these current levels we are in dangerous territory if you care about that 15-20%.

3) I'm $GYPR(ing) to protect and prepare for opportunity if and when the market does decide to come back towards "balance".  It's not a time for panic - sell everything.  Rather a taking a calm perspective with future opportunity in mind.

4) So what to do:  You've got 15% sitting in cash.  Would you consider a hedge type of play on that?  For simplicity you might want to take a look at the ETF $TAIL.  It's a tail risk strategy that invests about 90% in US Treasuries and then out of the $ Puts on the $SPY. In a corrective move investors will tend to flee towards treasuries, volatility will increase (+ value to the puts), and the puts themselves will increase in value.  If we're wrong...$TAIL will  decline, but that loss will be off-set by the increase of your already held long positions.  In addition because the $VIX is pretty low, the timing is decent and $TAIL is pretty cheap.  If and when the corrective moves comes - look to unload at levels of support.  Right now that would be $290ish and $280ish - being attentive if the $SPY were dropping towards those levels and finding the right time for YOU to unload.  This isn't about being perfect.  It's about developing a plan for a "natural" corrective move and following that plan as it unfolds.

5) I'm hesitant to post this type of stuff because if I had my way I'd want "most" of you to make money. (I kid you Trump loving lunatics - I even want you to make money too- I guess that's the "socialist" in me).  Therefore, please do your own due diligence and mostly don't do something stupid because I posted something stupid.
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I wish I understood any of this.

 
Foosball God said:
I wish I understood any of this.
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Tdoss (imo): siff cares about trends and momentum. Don't be surprised if the market corrects soon, as it's overvalued by enough that you could see a significant short-term event that reduces the value of your stocks (painfully). 

Even if that happens (and siff thinks it's likely enough), that doesn't mean we go into long-term market sell off mode. It will take months of downward pressure to turn the upward market (bull) trend into a downward trending market (bear).

This has been Bob Sacamano with a dubmLABS exclusive report.

 
chet said:
BOT 20k more today and will buy more this week.

Step up, sheeple.
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Maybe if it goes below $1. Is there any type of news coming up anytime soon? I remember the app that was supposed to be done end of February. Is there any other news (not insider, but announced timetable) coming up? I do still have plenty more cash. Still kicking myself for not buying a bunch of stuff in October. Almost everything I did but in October is up 30-50% and almost everything I thought about is up 30-100%. SMH. I timed it right just keep too much cash on the sidelines.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Tdoss (imo): siff cares about trends and momentum. Don't be surprised if the market corrects soon, as it's overvalued by enough that you could see a significant short-term event that reduces the value of your stocks (painfully). 

Even if that happens (and siff thinks it's likely enough), that doesn't mean we go into long-term market sell off mode. It will take months of downward pressure to turn the upward market (bull) trend into a downward trending market (bear).

This has been Bob Sacamano with a dubmLABS exclusive report.
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I'm Siffoin and I approve this message.

 
What’s the feeling on NYMT?

Guy my dad knows has been investing in this for years, even before the crash because of the dividend it offers. He’s done and continues to do very well with it.

 
For those watching at home, if you come in and ask "What do you think about XYZ Stonk" it helps at least to link to it's google finance page for the peanut gallery here.

 
stbugs said:
Maybe if it goes below $1. Is there any type of news coming up anytime soon? I remember the app that was supposed to be done end of February. Is there any other news (not insider, but announced timetable) coming up? I do still have plenty more cash. Still kicking myself for not buying a bunch of stuff in October. Almost everything I did but in October is up 30-50% and almost everything I thought about is up 30-100%. SMH. I timed it right just keep too much cash on the sidelines.
Click to expand...
Lots of possible catalysts.  BLA. Coronavirus, Cancer results, break through designation opinion from FDA.

https://medicalnewsfirst.com/the-quest-for-a-functional-cure-in-cancer-reaching-an-inflection-point/

 
I'm up 14% on GOLD in less than 10 days... I was hoping for that in one year, I'm bullish long term, and I wish I had more, but I'm wildly conflicted about sitting tight, adding more, taking profit. 

What do you all do in this situation? I always get these wrong. I gameplan for if it falls, stays flat, rises... But I never really have a plan in place for such a quick powerful gain on something I want to own. 

 
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