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1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

If you haven't read the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham (nicknamed the father of value investing), give it a read, still relevant to this day... Here is a great quote:

Quote

The longer the bull market lasts the more severely investors will be affected with amnesia; after five years or so, many people no longer believe that bear markets are possible.

 

I've been thinking about this and all those FIRE people a lot.

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Anyone else feeling like this 3% drop is less than expected? 

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55 minutes ago, Walking Boot said:

I've been thinking about this and all those FIRE people a lot.

Why's that?  What's the connection?

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1 minute ago, [icon] said:

Anyone else feeling like this 3% drop is less than expected? 

First stair in a staircase perhaps...or just a pothole soon to regain level footing.

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2 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Anyone else feeling like this 3% drop is less than expected? 

Tomorrow is a new day. 

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Positions we have been buying today on this weakness:

PFE

RCL

APPL

DIS

FUN

COP

XOM

 

Edited by Todem
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3 minutes ago, adonis said:

Why's that?  What's the connection?

It's easy to say "I can quit working at 30 and live out the rest of my years on my investment returns" when you've had an unprecedented 10-year bull run. Basically, that's it.

And to me, most of them seem to talk about "averages" and assumed returns and getting 8% a year every year without seeming to have an inkling of what it would mean if they dropped out of the career market for a few years and, then after a while of "retirement", have a 30% drop in their portfolio that doesn't recover for 5/6 years and all their networking contacts are laid off and the industry they're in uses new technology they don't have any experience with and they can't just start back up at their old job anytime they want anymore. But that's beyond the scope of the original comment. 

Mostly just that a 10 year bull makes FIRE seem a lot, lot easier than it is.

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4 minutes ago, Todem said:

Positions we have been buying today on this weakness:

PFE

RCL

APPL

DIS

FUN

COP

XOM

 

MSFT still too rich?

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Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

MSFT still too rich?

IMO yes. If it dropped another $20-$25 a share.....I would be a buyer. 

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My annual bonus, with the employer match, is probably going to hit my 401k later this week... hoping low prices stick around for a few more days at least. 

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9 minutes ago, Walking Boot said:

It's easy to say "I can quit working at 30 and live out the rest of my years on my investment returns" when you've had an unprecedented 10-year bull run. Basically, that's it.

And to me, most of them seem to talk about "averages" and assumed returns and getting 8% a year every year without seeming to have an inkling of what it would mean if they dropped out of the career market for a few years and, then after a while of "retirement", have a 30% drop in their portfolio that doesn't recover for 5/6 years and all their networking contacts are laid off and the industry they're in uses new technology they don't have any experience with and they can't just start back up at their old job anytime they want anymore. But that's beyond the scope of the original comment. 

Mostly just that a 10 year bull makes FIRE seem a lot, lot easier than it is.

I've made $47k a year for a decade, now I'm letting $47k work for me, FOREVER!!

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8 minutes ago, Todem said:

IMO yes. If it dropped another $20-$25 a share.....I would be a buyer. 

I'm interested in DIS, too. Just can't help but wonder how hard this could really hit them in the near-term.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I'm interested in DIS, too. Just can't help but wonder how hard this could really hit them in the near-term.

Yeah that is the question. I am not taking full positions. But taking half of the total allocation I would normally hold for these stocks today. Then I want to sit back and see how this goes the next few weeks. I think the virus will get under control in the next couple of months, but we are going to have this volatility here for the next several weeks. 

But long term. I have zero concerns as usual. So it is hard to time. If you see great stocks trading at decent valuations for the long term you just buy them and not worry about next month or even this year. It's about the long term. Days like today are good buying days regardless. 

 

And the energy sector is simply on a fire sale right now and a great long term opportunity to get excellent dividend stocks of cash rich companies. Huge disconnect and quite frankly.....oversold.

Edited by Todem

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12 minutes ago, Todem said:

Yeah that is the question. I am not taking full positions. But taking half of the total allocation I would normally hold for these stocks today. Then I want to sit back and see how this goes the next few weeks. I think the virus will get under control in the next couple of months, but we are going to have this volatility here for the next several weeks. 

But long term. I have zero concerns as usual. So it is hard to time. If you see great stocks trading at decent valuations for the long term you just buy them and not worry about next month or even this year. It's about the long term. Days like today are good buying days regardless. 

 

And the energy sector is simply on a fire sale right now and a great long term opportunity to get excellent dividend stocks of cash rich companies. Huge disconnect and quite frankly.....oversold.

Yeah, I haven't pushed anything in yet. Seems like some things are actually up after being way down. That screams that instant buy on a drop where the prices end up going down past the bottom today. Just looking to see if there are any earnings coming out today. 

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10 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Just looking to see if there are any earnings coming out today. 

SHAK, I'm sure there are others, but that one I know is coming today.

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48 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Yeah, I haven't pushed anything in yet. Seems like some things are actually up after being way down. That screams that instant buy on a drop where the prices end up going down past the bottom today. Just looking to see if there are any earnings coming out today. 

This twitter account stays on top of the earnings calendars

https://twitter.com/eWhispers

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Indexes close down ~3.5% and CYDY closes up ~0.5%.  I would not be comfortable if I were short.

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I don't recall a single etf segment being as down to the market as energy is at this moment.  Didn't we used to have someone that would buy the worst segment at end of month?  

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Kinda want to buy NQ futures and then sell them tomorrow. Day trading is a losing game (at least for me), so I won’t do it, but I feel like I could make some easy money playing a quick relief day tomorrow then selling for Wednesday.

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2 hours ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

This twitter account stays on top of the earnings calendars

https://twitter.com/eWhispers

One stock I was watching (PANW) had earnings tonight. Based on the past few days, it would have to be blow out earnings to do well. They got hammered after hours as I figured. Cheaper now but likely down more for a bit more.

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2 hours ago, chet said:

Indexes close down ~3.5% and CYDY closes up ~0.5%.  I would not be comfortable if I were short.

I just about can't think of a move more foolish than selling short a binary micro biotech like this. 

And selling short Tesla.  And buying Tesla.

Edited by Sand
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On 2/20/2020 at 9:57 PM, Whyatt said:

 I’ve mentioned my work experience :shrug:

What does your work experience tell you about SMLR?

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

I don't recall a single etf segment being as down to the market as energy is at this moment.  Didn't we used to have someone that would buy the worst segment at end of month?  

Haven't you heard?  The world switched over to hippie fart power a couple months ago.

I agree - it was already beat down and is now even more down.  Companies that have steady cash flows like EPD and MMP are looking like nice income plays.

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3 minutes ago, Sand said:

Haven't you heard?  The world switched over to hippie fart power a couple months ago.

I agree - it was already beat down and is now even more down.  Companies that have steady cash flows like EPD and MMP are looking like nice income plays.

I added to my RDS-B position locking in profits on a utility that was up today pushing it’s all time high. 

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Seriously, who was it that was pushing some sort of rotating ETF sector strategy based on the prior quarter (or month) performance.  It more or less had you cycle into the worst performing sector from the prior month with X% of the portfolio and then either hold or sell based on some criteria the previous two months sectors.  

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

Seriously, who was it that was pushing some sort of rotating ETF sector strategy based on the prior quarter (or month) performance.  It more or less had you cycle into the worst performing sector from the prior month with X% of the portfolio and then either hold or sell based on some criteria the previous two months sectors.  

Siff did that, but dropped it. I think jumping from sector to sector underperformed in the "10 year bull, all boats rise!" run. 

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2 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Kinda want to buy NQ futures and then sell them tomorrow. Day trading is a losing game (at least for me), so I won’t do it, but I feel like I could make some easy money playing a quick relief day tomorrow then selling for Wednesday.

:kicksrock: such easy money

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On 2/22/2020 at 2:06 PM, chet said:

Washington Post article on how the Coronavirus kills people.  The interesting thing is that it matches the mechanism of action almost exactly that our CEO used to design design a potential treatment. Final paperwork being signed and 50-person trial slated to start soon.

@Whyatt you said you think there's no chance that Lironlimab will be part of the treatment for victims.  I, and the rest of the world, sincerely hope you're wrong--and I mean that respectfully.

Oh man, what did I get myself into sharing my opinion on this stock? I’m basically playing the “Don’t Pass” line on the craps table, being that $#@&-head!!
 

Chet there is logic behind this reasoning. What I would say to this is all the drugs which fail in the clinic have a very good to great story behind them, you just don’t hear about them. There is already an approved CCR5 drug on the market, Maraviroc, any idea if this drug is being considered for corona virus? Maraviroc Is a small molecule drug , I’d need to investigate if this makes a difference. But basically we can tell ourselves the same story about Maraviroc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html 

Seems to be the current front runner, Gilead market cap was up $4 billion today in the way down market. I’ve read theIr clinical trial in progress includes hundreds of patients.

There are practical considerations as well. Could CYDY even meet the demand for the drug? No way they could charge what they are planning for HIV. 

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To think that a virtual company like CYDY can compete with Gilead and J&J seems far fetched. Big pharma can put 100s of people on these projects. For CYDY to win their drug would need to be vastly superior in efficacy.

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1 hour ago, Sand said:

I just about can't think of a move more foolish than selling short a binary micro biotech like this. 

And selling short Tesla.  And buying Tesla.

CYDY is going to move on news specific to PRO140, positive or negative. The thing is CYDY doesn’t share negative news so the only way for the stock to go is up!!

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8 hours ago, chet said:

So you think Leronlimab will be commercialized for cancer but still feel that the company is overvalued @~$650MM market cap?

CYDY acting well so far today in a weak market.  Lots of catalysts on the horizon!  Buying 10k more shares.

Here is my “Don’t Pass” line take. Taken at face value the drug is curing cancer with no side effects. Yeah this is kind of a big deal. So what are we missing? As I shared earlier Merck is spending billions on 1000+ clinical trials and printing $ as a result. If this is a cant miss type of deal, there is no reason to be farting around with their small scale trial. CYDY would have plenty of money at their disposal and they could hit this hard (with top talent) and not leave billions on the table.

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7 hours ago, [icon] said:

Anyone else feeling like this 3% drop is less than expected? 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of rebound. With that said—I don’t know if I’d change my long term outlook on things.   If the market were to correct further—it will almost certainly force the fed to act (again more fed and central bank diluting currency) and most likely lower rates again.    The financial engineering will continue and restore things. There will probably some extra volatility in the near and medium term—-but I don’t see my long term outlook changing a whole ton (with the assumption that Trump wins the election). 

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1 hour ago, Whyatt said:

CYDY is going to move on news specific to PRO140, positive or negative. The thing is CYDY doesn’t share negative news so the only way for the stock to go is up!!

CYDY is a binary stock.  If I really wanted to go that route I could head to Vegas and bet it all on black.

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7 hours ago, Todem said:

And the energy sector is simply on a fire sale right now and a great long term opportunity to get excellent dividend stocks of cash rich companies. Huge disconnect and quite frankly.....oversold.

Any in particular?

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If you're going to disparage gambling, we're going to have to have words. 

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7 hours ago, Whyatt said:

Oh man, what did I get myself into sharing my opinion on this stock? I’m basically playing the “Don’t Pass” line on the craps table, being that $#@&-head!!
 

Chet there is logic behind this reasoning. What I would say to this is all the drugs which fail in the clinic have a very good to great story behind them, you just don’t hear about them. There is already an approved CCR5 drug on the market, Maraviroc, any idea if this drug is being considered for corona virus? Maraviroc Is a small molecule drug , I’d need to investigate if this makes a difference. But basically we can tell ourselves the same story about Maraviroc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html 

Seems to be the current front runner, Gilead market cap was up $4 billion today in the way down market. I’ve read theIr clinical trial in progress includes hundreds of patients.

There are practical considerations as well. Could CYDY even meet the demand for the drug? No way they could charge what they are planning for HIV. 

Maraviroc has nasty side effects:

Quote

 

Maraviroc Side Effects

a light-headed feeling, like you might pass out;

chest pressure, tight feeling in your neck or jaw, sweating, pain spreading to your arm or shoulder; or.

liver problems--loss of appetite, upper stomach pain, itching, dark urine, clay-colored stools, jaundice (yellowing of the skin or eyes).

 

 

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7 hours ago, Whyatt said:

To think that a virtual company like CYDY can compete with Gilead and J&J seems far fetched. Big pharma can put 100s of people on these projects. For CYDY to win their drug would need to be vastly superior in efficacy.

David vs. Goliath stories have been around forever because David wins sometimes.  Here's another story on CYDY's Coronavirus approach--I know it's likely another paid story.  They are approaching treatment from a different angle than Gilead.  Below is the Washington Post's take on how the virus kills and then CYDY's reasoning as to why Lironlimab may be an effective treatment.

Quote

 

Washington Post

“Experts hypothesize that the difference between a lethal infection and one that feels like a bad cold probably hinges on the interaction between the virus and a person’s immune system.”

“What you get is the initial damage and rush of inflammatory cells, but the damage is so extensive that the body’s immune response is completely overwhelmed — which causes even more immune response, more immune cells and more damage,” 

Bruce Patterson:

“Leronlimab enhances the innate and cellular immune response by inhibiting Treg cells which turn off the immune system. In addition, CCL5-CCR5 is one of the pathways that controls the massive migration of immune cells to sites of inflammation. Last, leronlimab reprograms macrophages. Taken together all of these effects don’t target the virus but it hopefully can mitigate the severe damage caused by the resulting cytokine storm.”

 

 

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I'm in a bit of trouble shorting TVIX.

... and Chet gets up very early.

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17 hours ago, Walking Boot said:

 

I've been thinking about this and all those FIRE people a lot.

I've been thinking about this comment and figured I'd chime in.

I get shadenfreude, and share your sentiment when discussing MMM-disciple early-30s millenials planning a 50 year retirement on a 40k budget.  However when I read the specific term "FIRE" I think of the folks on the early-retirement.org forum.  The typical person there is fully cognizent of sequence-of-return risk, factoring in inflation, using historical rates of return for their models vice the last 10 year bull market, etc.  Most of them are talking about retiring in their 50s, not 30s, and have their heads screwed on straight.  One strong thread of current sentiment regarding the COVID outbreak from those that are nearing FIRE is that it represents a good test of future financial plans and assumptions, from which they hope to learn and to use to reduce risk going forward.  What have I missed?  What is my real level of tolerance for risk and uncertainty.  They are data-driven and tend to be on the whole cautious rather than optimistic.  Or at least, that is the dominant mindset.

 

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55 minutes ago, Bossman said:

I'm in a bit of trouble shorting TVIX.

Details? 

Might get some reprieve this morning 

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1 hour ago, Bossman said:

I'm in a bit of trouble shorting TVIX.

... and Chet gets up very early.

In Geneva. Heading back to US tomorrow. 

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2 hours ago, [icon] said:

Details? 

Might get some reprieve this morning 

Shorted 200 @ $44

Markets dipped and I shorted 100 @ $48

All hell broke loose and attempting to raise my price point, shorted 100 @ $58

markets fell off even more where tvix was holding at $64. Yikes. ...and I've tied up loads of $$$ in this carp.

Never expected a $20 jump. Was hoping for a reprieve today but looks like I might be sitting on this stuff for several months while markets recover.

Not super concerned as tvix always comes back down (history shows?). But I am disappointed that this ties up my play money for the foreseeable future.

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For some reason, I’m going all in for International Paper. Good filings, great ethics/sustainability, good dividend, P/E under 14 now.

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17 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Kinda want to buy NQ futures and then sell them tomorrow. Day trading is a losing game (at least for me), so I won’t do it, but I feel like I could make some easy money playing a quick relief day tomorrow then selling for Wednesday.

And that my friends is why I don't day trade. They did go up pretty decently last night, but that seems behind us. 

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1 hour ago, Bossman said:

Shorted 200 @ $44

Markets dipped and I shorted 100 @ $48

All hell broke loose and attempting to raise my price point, shorted 100 @ $58

markets fell off even more where tvix was holding at $64. Yikes. ...and I've tied up loads of $$$ in this carp.

Never expected a $20 jump. Was hoping for a reprieve today but looks like I might be sitting on this stuff for several months while markets recover.

Not super concerned as tvix always comes back down (history shows?). But I am disappointed that this ties up my play money for the foreseeable future.

What type of interest to borrow those? I'd assume a big number.

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13 hours ago, matuski said:

Any in particular?

XOM

CVX

COP

 

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Here is a well run amusement park/real estate company that pays an outstanding dividend and has been hammered on virus fears.

 

FUN

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Todem said:

XOM

CVX

COP

 

So tempting not to buy in at these levels, which for XOM haven't been seen for 15 years. That being said, man is that chart ugly. Feels like I'd be trying to catch a falling knife. 

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Just now, skycriesmary said:

So tempting not to buy in at these levels, which for XOM haven't been seen for 15 years. That being said, man is that chart ugly. Feels like I'd be trying to catch a falling knife. 

I can't disagree. I am not taking full positions. But we started the nibble yesterday.  It is just so oversold. But this is for someone who wants a great dividend and has years to hold it and not worry about short term volatility. Oil stocks are acting as if every single person is buying electric cars and fossil fuels are going to be gone in 5 years. 

Absolute stupid thinking and a massive overreaction to reality. 

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1 minute ago, Todem said:

I can't disagree. I am not taking full positions. But we started the nibble yesterday.  It is just so oversold. But this is for someone who wants a great dividend and has years to hold it and not worry about short term volatility. Oil stocks are acting as if every single person is buying electric cars and fossil fuels are going to be gone in 5 years. 

Absolute stupid thinking and a massive overreaction to reality. 

Yeah, I agree with that for sure. I'd just rather not watch another year's worth of dividend's get eaten up with a falling stock price after I buy. That being said, if in for the long term...I think if it approached $52-$53, I'd jump in. 

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