Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Tomorrow’s jobless claims are going to be awful. I’ve seen 1.5M just from CA and PA alone
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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
GoBirds
Footballguy
Not a good look, lets not pollute this thread like the PSF. If you really feel the need to requote your own posts for attention I guess knock yourself out.I made massive bank in the last 3 weeks and didn't say a word throughout. Usually when someone is making good call after call, people pay attention, not be condescending jerks. I'd speak my real opinion, but you PSF members are usually a sensitive bunch that hit report on anything, I've never used it once, fyi.
Today, I basically said this is about to sell, literally right before it happened. And hey, there goes 800 points in 30 minutes
Carry on.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Anyone not a mod that uses the report function should be drawn and quarteredI made massive bank in the last 3 weeks and didn't say a word throughout. Usually when someone is making good call after call, people pay attention, not be condescending jerks. I'd speak my real opinion, but you PSF members are usually a sensitive bunch that hit report on anything, I've never used it once, fyi.
Today, I basically said this is about to sell, literally right before it happened. And hey, there goes 800 points in 30 minutes
Carry on.
GoBirds
Footballguy
It's going to be brutal, you buying on the massive pullback we can expect or waiting?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
TripItUp
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
How does this play compare to the MGM play others have jumped on?
I think I'm adding more BA on the next big dip and sadly I jumped in a bunch of RDS.B way too early.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Nice call on the sell offI made massive bank in the last 3 weeks and didn't say a word throughout. Usually when someone is making good call after call, people pay attention, not be condescending jerks. I'd speak my real opinion, but you PSF members are usually a sensitive bunch that hit report on anything, I've never used it once, fyi.
Today, I basically said this is about to sell, literally right before it happened. And hey, there goes 800 points in 30 minutes
Carry on.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
If I’m scanning banks, with the Fed basically guaranteeing them, JPM is def the one to own. BAC will vastly underperform them in this low rate environment.
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Insoxicated
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
Jack in the Box was. I bought at 29 and 24. It peaked in the high 70s this year and is still available at 37.50
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Keep em comin guys. I would be up a nice chunk on a lot of these stocks if I had my #### in order over here. I have a nice sheet with many of them written down, but between funding my account late and not understanding the "time to settle" crap, I didnt make much.
From here on out I have a couple accounts with about 10 G's each, my roth and my play money. Looking for maybe 4 or 5 buy and holds for the roth (not yet though, gotta wait maybe another day for money I bought/sold to settle.
So looking for friday/monday to put in for some buy and holds, and also looking for some easy money on some fluctuations.
Lot of good calls in here, mostly all good calls. Not because they went up, but because of HOW MUCH they went up.
So keep em comin. I expect more yo-yo effect coming up, and I hope to pounce and actually make something of it this time.
Thanks for all the help so far.
From here on out I have a couple accounts with about 10 G's each, my roth and my play money. Looking for maybe 4 or 5 buy and holds for the roth (not yet though, gotta wait maybe another day for money I bought/sold to settle.
So looking for friday/monday to put in for some buy and holds, and also looking for some easy money on some fluctuations.
Lot of good calls in here, mostly all good calls. Not because they went up, but because of HOW MUCH they went up.
So keep em comin. I expect more yo-yo effect coming up, and I hope to pounce and actually make something of it this time.
Thanks for all the help so far.
Capella
Footballguy
I think the reason nobody is paying attention is because you went 3 straight years making bad calls. YMMVI made massive bank in the last 3 weeks and didn't say a word throughout. Usually when someone is making good call after call, people pay attention, not be condescending jerks. I'd speak my real opinion, but you PSF members are usually a sensitive bunch that hit report on anything, I've never used it once, fyi.
Today, I basically said this is about to sell, literally right before it happened. And hey, there goes 800 points in 30 minutes
Carry on.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
How hard is it to apply for margin trading? In case I dont wanna wait 2 days business days after selling something
Random
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Maybe margin trading isn't the right thing?
I suppose I would like to be able to buy and sell a stock without having to wait days and days to buy again.
I realize I sound like an idiot with all this. It's ok. I have seen a lot of stupid people make decent money. I can join them for a bit
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
MMDV, I returned 30% last year, I’m not even gonna brag about this year (maybe I will, it’s gargantuan). On top of that, my 401k is also safe since 26k, but yea, terrible calls.
Oh, and I’ll buy everything everyone else has been buying higher for the last many years at lower prices.
You should rethink your statement.
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Less fighting more tips
TripItUp
Footballguy
seriously,
What do we expect tomorrow and what stocks should we be targeting in case we see another dip?
As noted I've already hammered JPM and am looking for a good entry point for Marriot, Amazon, Hilton, Target, Chipotle and others.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
Bottom was last week. It’s up 60%
Sold off most of mine today. Held on to a 1/4 of my position in case it’s only up from here. I suspect bad news will drive it down and it will be time to reload
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Buddy sent me this
BigLeague with the stimulus bill expected and then not closing today, I’m still sticking with travel as a long play. Some losses will happen but in the long term, it gives many the opportunity to get in. It’s going to depend on how the bill shakes out, but I’m going to be focusing on the “safe havens” for the short term after back to back increases. If the bill doesn’t pass tomorrow, I expect to see some continued market hesitation. Things like Kinross (KGC) Yamana (AUY) and Barrick (GOLD) will be my targets tomorrow. Comparing charts to 2008, that’s where a lot of people will flock after the initial rally after the bill. Can’t expect a quick bounce back, this will be a slow burn. In my opinion, that is.
BigLeague with the stimulus bill expected and then not closing today, I’m still sticking with travel as a long play. Some losses will happen but in the long term, it gives many the opportunity to get in. It’s going to depend on how the bill shakes out, but I’m going to be focusing on the “safe havens” for the short term after back to back increases. If the bill doesn’t pass tomorrow, I expect to see some continued market hesitation. Things like Kinross (KGC) Yamana (AUY) and Barrick (GOLD) will be my targets tomorrow. Comparing charts to 2008, that’s where a lot of people will flock after the initial rally after the bill. Can’t expect a quick bounce back, this will be a slow burn. In my opinion, that is.
TripItUp
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
I got in on this one when you or @Capella (Pretty sure it was one of you 2) jumped in when it was around 1700. About 10 days ago, had been good when everything else I had was sucking. Got out today when it was trending down while everything else was blowing up. Figuring it dips again and will get back in.
Also keeping a chunk of it long term, a forever stock for me.
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Bossman
Footballguy
Seems like everything is "priced in" these days.
Pretty sure investors understand that the horrific unemployment report is due to temporary closings caused by the virus.
I'm not expecting people are going to freak out and sell off everything ... again.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Given the logistics of the fallout when hospitals are inevitably overrun is not priced in IMO, nor is the length of time this will all last.
Seems like everything is "priced in" these days.
Pretty sure investors understand that the horrific unemployment report is due to temporary closings caused by the virus.
I'm not expecting people are going to freak out and sell off everything ... again.
However, if they print 2 trillion every month then I guess we wont have any more huge dips?????
Capella
Footballguy
No fighting. FC is a good dude but he’s one of those guys who likes to constantly remind people when he’s right and then immediately dismiss when he’s wrong or pretend like it didn’t happen.
The General
Footballguy
Mnuchin did say today in the presser that they had up to 4 Trillion (2 more) ready to go if needed if I heard correctly,
Capella
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I agree that the unemployment outlook is largely accounted for at this stage, but there’s nothing temporary about a lot of these closings. That’s far too cavalier. There’s going to be a lot of small businesses shuttering doors because of this, and lots of them permanently.
Seems like everything is "priced in" these days.
Pretty sure investors understand that the horrific unemployment report is due to temporary closings caused by the virus.
I'm not expecting people are going to freak out and sell off everything ... again.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Just saw Cheesecake Factory informed its landlords it wouldn't be paying its rent on April 1.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheesecake-factory-tells-landlords-it-wont-pay-april-rent-51585184276
Only the beginning of problems for the REITs IMO
https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheesecake-factory-tells-landlords-it-wont-pay-april-rent-51585184276
Only the beginning of problems for the REITs IMO
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Re: bottom
Everyone everywhere discusses the bottom. I'd like to note a few things, as it all becomes about data and numbers; why do you think MIT quants are in high demand in the financial industry?
What makes the bottom, how do you find it, what is all the money looking at when trying to find it?
1) Look at stimulus, how much money is being pumped in, how much loss of productivity does that cover, and for how long?
2) How long does this go on for, what is the time frame?
3) What will companies look like on the other side? (this is more micro, but consider it in these equations when picking individually)
I've modeled about 15 different scenarios mainly using technical levels and where, when, how, why I think we'll be there. Without laying everything out, I can say there has been a tectonic shift and we're in a bear market. The moves are powerful, but the direction overall is down until incoming data can make that different.
Everyone everywhere discusses the bottom. I'd like to note a few things, as it all becomes about data and numbers; why do you think MIT quants are in high demand in the financial industry?
What makes the bottom, how do you find it, what is all the money looking at when trying to find it?
1) Look at stimulus, how much money is being pumped in, how much loss of productivity does that cover, and for how long?
2) How long does this go on for, what is the time frame?
3) What will companies look like on the other side? (this is more micro, but consider it in these equations when picking individually)
I've modeled about 15 different scenarios mainly using technical levels and where, when, how, why I think we'll be there. Without laying everything out, I can say there has been a tectonic shift and we're in a bear market. The moves are powerful, but the direction overall is down until incoming data can make that different.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
How much is the market moved by “people freaking out” v. institutional investors facing serious liquidity problems? IIRC, retail investors make up a small fraction.
Seems like everything is "priced in" these days.
Pretty sure investors understand that the horrific unemployment report is due to temporary closings caused by the virus.
I'm not expecting people are going to freak out and sell off everything ... again.
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Anyone hit with pdt? Or is it just a poor mans problem? I am playing around with $500 and I bought maybe 7 things and sold 1 this week. Was reading the limit is 5 trades per week?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just covered, almost 1k points in a few hours.
Getting out of the way for this senate vote supposedly tonight or in the morning. Same sell zone as earlier, secondary zone at 22,500.
Getting out of the way for this senate vote supposedly tonight or in the morning. Same sell zone as earlier, secondary zone at 22,500.
GoBirds
Footballguy
This will be an interesting play, when to jump back in REITs after their beat down. I was in O awhile back which seemed strong, will keep that on the radar.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
On individual properties I think RE will trail this event. If I can avoid getting wiped out in business this year I may be looking at places in 12-18 months to buy.
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Insoxicated
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
Can you restate this in common terms please. I’m serious. I’ve been in the thread learning and don’t follow the slang on this one. TIA.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I posted a number on the DJIA futures yesterday that I anticipated would be heavily sold. When we got there today, I watched closely to see the action/volume/etc, after watching for a short time, I knew I was correct. I sold DJIA futures contracts (symbol YM) at that level and bought them back just now 1k points lower.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
3 words, loaded question. I'll do my best, hard to avoid politics in this scenario, so there will be a little in this reply as it 100% correlates to this:
I have a thesis, I could be wrong, but I base my decisions off of my thesis. If you're a Trump guy, you should be buying right now with two fists and have no funds left to deplete. Your boy has this under control and the economy will be getting ready to explode very shortly. So basically, you guys should just buy and stop looking, huge discounts right now. You heard your boy, go out and start buying... Although as an FYI, on February 24th he also tweeted that market was looking mighty good, maybe rethink your faith in him
Good luck to you. My thesis doesn't believe him bc the data tells me not to. It says we wasted too much time and now we already can't avoid "bad" at a minimum. The tiny bit of humanitarian in me hopes this is just bad, but the pessimistic realist number guy in me says this is going to be shockingly bad. So I currently land between bad and horrific. Well, where does this take me and how long until we get there? To start, my base case has the DJIA around 15k, so another 27% to go. This coincides with minimal productivity for 3 months, and a slight improvement 3 months from now. The Fed/stimulus only covers half of that, and if Trump really tries to get us moving too early, add in another 3 months to that and take my base case down to 12k. I'm well below anyone on this, bc unfortunately I believe this could be shockingly bad. I really hope it isn't, and if the data starts telling me otherwise, I'll happily change my tune.
The easiest equation you guys can use to figure this out (and finding the E in P/E right now is impossible, so I default to this) and create your own thesis is by basically taking $6 trillion dollars, figuring out how long different productivity levels are lost for (which you do by estimating where this disease goes and how we combat it), and how long for it all to come back online afterwards.
The other part of this equation which is too far out to even consider, but thought needs to be applied to is what happens when we get back to normal and a new crop of cases start sprouting up. Volatility is here, and it will be for quite some time. IMO, a lot of money can be made playing the ups and downs, eventually sidelining, and then scaling in for the next bull market. But honestly, I don't think we retake our old high for a minimum of 12 months, quite possibly 24 months.
The only thing that can change this is an effective treatment, that would equal immediate buying, imo (or if the data starts turning more favorable, which it currently isn't).
Oh yea, buy gold.
The Ref
Footballguy
RE: Bottom
We are living in truly uncharted territory. We had a paper/debt fueled economy at the top, a worldwide pandemic we still don’t fully understand AND record breaking Quantitative Easing combined with a big Fiscal Stimulus. 9/11 didn’t have as big an impact. This is a hodgepodge of massive data inputs and our friends at MIT won’t be able to figure out exactly where it all lands if you have them 100 tries.
At the end of the day a majority of people are part of the service economy and, as a rule of thumb, live paycheck to paycheck and now have zero income. 30% unemployment at least temporarily. 15T has evaporated from the US major indexes in a month. 10T of Fed inputs and a 2T stimulus isn’t going to save us if the corona gets worse.
i don’t think we have a bottom yet - but that’s just me.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The quants will still try, you need to model something to try and find value.
And yes, fully agree, no bottom, probably no V Shape recovery either.
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
Been there and didnt get a t-shirt.
"You're generally limited to no more than three day trades in a rolling five trading day period, unless you have at least $25,000 of equity" in your margin account. A day trade is basically in and out (buy and sell) of the same instrument within the same day. Futures contracts are exempt from this rule. Google for finer aspects as im no expert.
