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9 minutes ago, NotSmart said:

If lows are tested again, are there any other big catalysts to watch for that could fuel a quick general market rise again off those lows?

I wouldn't think there are too many financial levers left for the government to pull.

It is not about that. It is about panic. We have to be able to flatten the curve of the virus. Once this starts happening and the economy starts functioning we will recover.

Again you can’t think about year end in a selloff like this. You have to think long term.

Some sense of normality is what will propel the market again. The moment we start getting a sense of normality starting to return the market will start pricing in 2021.

2020 is priced in for the most part. 
 

There are several reasons the market is so volatile.

1. fear and anguish

2. unable to quantify how deep this may go on the economy which is uncertainty 

3. huge short selling and short covering


As a long term investor you need to be able to stomach the short term volatility and have the confidence you are buying fantastic companies for a long term horizon and they are industries that will survive and thrive.

 

The airlines, hotels and cruise stocks are being day traded, shorted and covered every day. 
 

I am focused on only two of those. CCL and DAL. Because they have the best balance sheets and are the best run in their respective industry from a financial viewpoint.

Everything else I have been buying are simply best in class names across all the sectors. 
 

Info tech

pharma

staples

utilities

industrials

materials

financials

consumer discretionary 

energy

real estate


I hope I am wrong about us re-testing and potentially making new lows. Would love to be wrong about it.

But I am willing to be patient a little while longer with the cash I have left because we are dealing in unknowns short term. Which will cause more violent sell offs. This is a very typical bear market right now. Before we start a new bull (because we will). We need clarity. There is none right now. So be patient, be long term minded and do not panic sell into this market. 
 

Anyone who invests in the market should always understand the risks and the volatility. 
 

Unfortunately we got sucker punched here. Absolutely no one saw a virus coming into our country and derailing what was a very strong and “confident” economy.

Once confidence returns get ready for lift off!!!

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4 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

I saw a few of you guys were heavy on the Nasdaq. Which tech stock(s) has weathered the storm the best at this point?

AMZN ...

this pig wont die. 

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1 minute ago, ghostguy123 said:

Well I guess this has at least been a learning experience.  "Day late and a dollar short" rings true for me here.  Knowledge is power.  Had I been even the slightest bit prepared to move around individual stocks, I would have moved up my retirement at least a year just from the past 6 days.  But alas, I have improved basically nothing in my portfolio of individual stocks.  

At least I should be much more ready for when this market inevitably goes down again.

 

If you investing for retirement shouldn't you just get in and hold tight for years? I'm no expert but in my long stocks I wouldn't worry about a few % either way right now.

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1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

Wait, what?  We’re in a 15 day quarantine?  

oh, ... you're not from around here I guess.

Just about the entire east coast has closed all of "non-Covid19 essential" businesses for 2 weeks.

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got out of JNUG for now with a little gain; will buy back in at the next run down

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8 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Well I guess this has at least been a learning experience.  "Day late and a dollar short" rings true for me here.  Knowledge is power.  Had I been even the slightest bit prepared to move around individual stocks, I would have moved up my retirement at least a year just from the past 6 days.  But alas, I have improved basically nothing in my portfolio of individual stocks.  

At least I should be much more ready for when this market inevitably goes down again.

Just curious, what exactly do you think you have "learned"?

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10 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

 

If you investing for retirement shouldn't you just get in and hold tight for years? I'm no expert but in my long stocks I wouldn't worry about a few % either way right now.

I was hoping to do both

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19 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

Thoughts on Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR) and Palo Alto Networks (NYSE:PANW)?

Love PANW myself. Outstanding company and cybersecurity is only going to get more important, assuming there is cyber in the post-pandemic future. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, humpback said:

Just curious, what exactly do you think you have "learned"?

Mostly to be ready.  

I also learned that when you sell stocks in the fidelity account there is this thing called "settled cash".

Basically I have learned how to use the fidelity trading app, how to use the limits for orders (which burned me a couple times till I figured that out).

I simply wasnt ready, and I could even execute the things I wanted to because of the mistakes I made in learning how the process works, which cost me money and earnings

Edited by ghostguy123
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14 minutes ago, Bossman said:

AMZN ...

this pig wont die. 

That pig wont die but it also won't participate bigly on any big days.

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16 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Well I guess this has at least been a learning experience.  "Day late and a dollar short" rings true for me here.  Knowledge is power.  Had I been even the slightest bit prepared to move around individual stocks, I would have moved up my retirement at least a year just from the past 6 days.  But alas, I have improved basically nothing in my portfolio of individual stocks.  

At least I should be much more ready for when this market inevitably goes down again.

Yep. You got out higher than most, but missing yesterday is a huge issue in terms of getting back in. That's why it really is better to just stay in for long term investments. At least IMHO. 

Of course, your balance is probably still higher than a lot of people since you got out early so not a total loss. 

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10 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Didn't take too long to go negative today.  Feel like bloodbath is coming over next few days.  

Might be. My stocks are all over the place, some still up a lot, some down (not as much). Just feels like it’s a mixed bag day. I still have a nice % of cash (not nearly as much as the people who pulled all out) so I wouldn’t mind retesting some lows to move that cash back in. Wednesday was a better day than I thought to push some in but oh well. I think I’ll get another chance.

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8 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Yep. You got out higher than most, but missing yesterday is a huge issue in terms of getting back in. That's why it really is better to just stay in for long term investments. At least IMHO. 

Of course, your balance is probably still higher than a lot of people since you got out early so not a total loss. 

I would agree that if yesterday didnt happen I probably could have swapped my 403b money back into stocks as early as this week.  I still think the overall market is going down.  

The economy hasnt even really felt all this yet, mostly just the stock market.

MOre and more stores closing, more states closing everything.....

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37 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

 

If you investing for retirement shouldn't you just get in and hold tight for years? I'm no expert but in my long stocks I wouldn't worry about a few % either way right now.

ABSOLUTELY. This is a freakin gift. I already doubled my contributions in the short term to get as much as I can afford in at these levels.

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Market still feels very confused.  Even with the bailout—there is still soo much more information and unknowns for the markets to digest. Newsom last night said that he expected the lockdown to most likely stay in place for 8-12 weeks and that the next 6-8 are going to be very important in regards to seeing how the virus numbers are trending.  California is basically the 5th biggest economy in the world.   If New York is kept on lock down for a while—they would represent somewhere around the 11th or 12th biggest economy in the world.   Even if somehow the rest of the country except of these two states started back up in a couple weeks—our economy is still going to be relatively ground to a halt.  The next couple to several months are going to be really choppy.   For those of whom  are investing for the long term—I’d just pick what you think are the best companies and try not pay attention to the daily roller coasters that are bound to come for a while.  If you guys are looking to buy and flip for some quick money—I’d be very careful.  This market has the potential to sting you pretty dramatically.  

 

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27 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Mostly to be ready.  

I also learned that when you sell stocks in the fidelity account there is this thing called "settled cash".

Basically I have learned how to use the fidelity trading app, how to use the limits for orders (which burned me a couple times till I figured that out).

I simply wasnt ready, and I could even execute the things I wanted to because of the mistakes I made in learning how the process works, which cost me money and earnings

Yeah, you should certainly know the basics like how to place limit orders before even thinking about buying individual stocks. I thought you were talking more about trying to time the market.

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13 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would agree that if yesterday didnt happen I probably could have swapped my 403b money back into stocks as early as this week.  I still think the overall market is going down.  

The economy hasnt even really felt all this yet, mostly just the stock market.

MOre and more stores closing, more states closing everything.....

If I may..  You should get a portion (75%) back in asap.  Good move going 100% cash when you did, but very very risky with your entire portfolio.  Getting out at the right time is only half the battle.  Lock in that massive win for yourself.  Use the other 25% (or whatever) as "play money".  

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Is it too late to get into boeing at 150 a share?  Damn it.  

Everything airline futures way up again.  Not a shocker there.  

I bought on the way down at 200, 160, and 100. Cost average is about 155 (they were not equally weighted tranches). I feel fine with that. You can too, buying now. It’s over 50% off its highs.

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11 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Trump presser was a big deal...market begging for a reason to buy.   Also, Tuesdays have been good.  Also, positive stimulus news at night.   Also, Ackman news.  We had just tested 4 year low at 18.5K Dow

Too many plus datapoints impacting perception.

Everyone is trigger happy, don't want to miss out on the rise.

2 hours ago, Steeler said:

What do we think of ZM?  

Pissed that I didn't buy in 2 weeks ago. 

Good for future growth IMO

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25 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Might be. My stocks are all over the place, some still up a lot, some down (not as much). Just feels like it’s a mixed bag day. I still have a nice % of cash (not nearly as much as the people who pulled all out) so I wouldn’t mind retesting some lows to move that cash back in. Wednesday was a better day than I thought to push some in but oh well. I think I’ll get another chance.

Monday......the last two Mondays have proven the best days to buy. I expect the same. 

Fridays are typically bloody as traders don’t want to be long into the weekend.....but that has always been a head fake day. I never ever buy on Friday.

Ever.

I think Monday will another whoosh day to buy in again at lower valuations.

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16 hours ago, beef said:

Goldman Sachs says it is time to buy gold — the ‘currency of last resort’

Because it's GS I'm a little hesitant to buy up gold and see greater values elsewhere.   Only gold I own, besides old gold coins, is JNUG.  Just missed my limit sell price today.  Not expecting to hold it much longer.

I'm out of JNUG.  Jumped another dime after the sale, but I'll take that 60% gain and try not to look back and hindsight myself to shame.

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Oh another thing I learned is that if you think a stock will go up the next day, BUY IT BEFORE MARKET CLOSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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14 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Oh another thing I learned is that if you think a stock will go up the next day, BUY IT BEFORE MARKET CLOSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yup - oops!

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55 minutes ago, Random said:

If I may..  You should get a portion (75%) back in asap.  Good move going 100% cash when you did, but very very risky with your entire portfolio.  Getting out at the right time is only half the battle.  Lock in that massive win for yourself.  Use the other 25% (or whatever) as "play money".  

Good stuff in here. What advice would you give for someone who’s been on the sidelines since about half way through the crash? Dow was at about 24000 for reference. 

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On 3/24/2020 at 7:37 AM, ConstruxBoy said:

10 stocks I'm following for various reasons. Lots of healthcare. 

ABT, BRK.B, CRM, GILD, HON, INFO, MA, MDT, NVO, RHHBY

All solid stocks I liked before but were too expensive. No real bounce back stocks. 

I would not be surprised if this pandemic let to Universal heathcare sooner, rather than later.

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1 hour ago, Harris said:

got out of JNUG for now with a little gain; will buy back in at the next run down

Same here, but I did fairly well

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1 hour ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Didn't take too long to go negative today.  Feel like bloodbath is coming over next few days.  

Yeah, there's going to be a lot more horrible virus news coming from NYC outbreaks. I'm back in TVIX.

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If these home tests I'm reading about, like here and here work and get widely distributed, I think that could seriously ease some of the uncertainty. 

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55 minutes ago, Man In The Box said:

Good stuff in here. What advice would you give for someone who’s been on the sidelines since about half way through the crash? Dow was at about 24000 for reference. 

With everything or just some "play money" amount?

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

SAVE just doubled up!!!

If that crappy airline survives they all survive :lol:

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JFC I’ve got 25% left in cash and was going to push half of that back in on Monday and balked.  Now what?

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3 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

JFC I’ve got 25% left in cash and was going to push half of that back in on Monday and balked.  Now what?

Wait until Monday after the body count skyrockets.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

JFC I’ve got 25% left in cash and was going to push half of that back in on Monday and balked.  Now what?

Odds are strong this is a false bottom and we'll see some pullback once deaths start piling up. It's been posted numerous times that bear rallies are the strongest. 

Could be a true shift but I don't see how considering we have months of pain and thousands of deaths just over the horizon. 

I'm still ~60% cash and the GF is still 90% cash.  Missed a good opportunity to buy in a bit more at what COULD have been a bottom but I'm not solid 100%

 

Disclaimer: Not an expert

Edited by [icon]
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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Random said:

With everything or just some "play money" amount?

Everything is currently all in government securities 

Edited by Man In The Box

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6 minutes ago, The General said:

If that crappy airline survives they all survive :lol:

The last bit I own is now at 120% in a week.  I hope we get another huge drop.

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48 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I would not be surprised if this pandemic let to Universal heathcare sooner, rather than later.

That's a risk, but I'm not sure it's super likely in the near/middle term. Most of the surveys I've seen of the public has more people against it than I would have guessed. I doubt very much it happens with a Republican congress or President. Really needed Sanders or Warren to win for that to happen in the near term. At least IMHO. 

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3 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

JFC I’ve got 25% left in cash and was going to push half of that back in on Monday and balked.  Now what?

Patience. 

This is advice for anyone who A) has a job that could be impacted by the economy & B) has cash on the sidelines:

If you miss the first xyz move up and have to buy in late, it means your job is most likely safe, but you were a little late. I'm happy to be in that position and anyone else should be too. 

If you sit back and wait and it tanks hard, it means everything is ####ed, but you'll be able to buy in much lower and separate funds for possible emergencies. Personally, I have a bank account that I set aside a 6 month emergency fund completely separate from equities, assets, & 401k. 

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6 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Odds are strong this is a false bottom and we'll see some pullback once deaths start piling up. It's been posted numerous times that bear rallies are the strongest. 

Could be a true shift but I don't see how considering we have months of pain and thousands of deaths just over the horizon. 

I'm still ~60% cash and the GF is still 90% cash.  Missed a good opportunity to buy in a bit more at what COULD have been a bottom but I'm not solid 100%

 

Disclaimer: Not an expert

In bear markets you take the stairs down and the elevator up.

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2 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

That's a risk, but I'm not sure it's super likely in the near/middle term. Most of the surveys I've seen of the public has more people against it than I would have guessed. I doubt very much it happens with a Republican congress or President. Really needed Sanders or Warren to win for that to happen in the near term. At least IMHO. 

I don't think short/midterm is a danger for it to happen. But with the shortage of basic equipment and supplies and general lack of preparedness added to the bailing out going on now, it is getting harder and harder to justify private heath care industry.  Nationalized health care would have been in a much stronger position to deal with this pandemic.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, The Ref said:

In bear markets you take the stairs down and the elevator up.

Elaborate? 😂

slow down / fast up? 

Edited by [icon]
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2 minutes ago, The Ref said:

In bear markets you take the stairs down and the elevator up.

So OTIS is the play here?

Seriously, tho, I am not understanding what action you are implying we take. Slow to sell, quick to buy? 

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11 minutes ago, Man In The Box said:

Everything is currently all in government securities 

I should elaborate a bit. This is a thrift savings account that only has a few investing options. I can’t purchase individual stocks. Before this I was 12-14 years from retirement. Job is pretty secure. 

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20 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

JFC I’ve got 25% left in cash and was going to push half of that back in on Monday and balked.  Now what?

Say What????

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9 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Elaborate? 😂

slow down / fast up? 

Yes, usually. But the stairs, on this one, collapsed.

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7 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Elaborate? 😂

slow down / fast up? 

When the overall market is downward such as now you tend to have a slow gravity on the price of stocks which means more often than not they are slowly going down.  .5% here, .25% there.  Then a new item hits and everyone panic buys and the market goes up 3% in a day.  The market is still trending down over time but the violent moves are to the upside.

In a bull market it’s the other way around.  It’s up up up up a little at a time and then boom a 4% drop.

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